Episode

Anpanman - Breaking $124: The AST SpaceMobile Supercycle

2026-01-29 1:13:36 Anpanman · Unidentified guest

In this solo X Spaces recap (recorded ~Jan 28, republished Jan 29, 2026), Anpanman marks AST SpaceMobile's new all-time high of $124.32 intraday ($121.23 close) as a sign the stock is transitioning from speculative trading vehicle to mature, institutionally-owned market leader.

He walks through the January 23 joint FCC meeting between AST, AT&T, Verizon, and FirstNet as evidence US regulatory approval for commercial service is in its final stages. He previews near-term catalysts: Bluebird 6 unfolding, the Bluebird 7 New Glenn launch, and the SpaceX IPO.

He argues the company is approaching 'S-rank' cult-stock status akin to Tesla or Palantir, as investors start pricing in AI-data-center hosting and Golden Dome defense applications beyond the core connectivity business.

His headline conclusion: pullbacks are likely but the stock isn't going back to $50, and 2026 catalysts should drive a broader institutional re-rating.

Key Takeaways

  • AST SpaceMobile stock hit a new intraday all-time high of $124.32 and closed at $121.23, which Anpanman frames as the start of a sustained institutional re-rating rather than a short-lived spike, unlike prior false-dawn rallies in 2022-2024.
  • AST SpaceMobile, AT&T, Verizon, FirstNet, and consultants Dave Marshak Group and RKF held a joint meeting with the FCC on January 23, 2026 — a rare unified show of support Anpanman reads as a strong signal that FCC approval of AST's US market/SCS application is close, likely landing between late January and mid-February 2026.
  • The fact that attorneys and representatives (not C-suite executives like Abel Avellan or the carriers' CEOs) attended the January 23 FCC meeting is, per Anpanman, a positive sign — senior-executive attendance late in a regulatory process would typically indicate problems.
  • Bluebird 7 is expected to launch no earlier than the end of February 2026, likely slipping into early March, on Blue Origin's New Glenn 3 — notable as the first reuse of a New Glenn booster.
  • Anpanman relays hedge-fund commentator Kevin Mack's thesis that AST SpaceMobile could reach 'S-rank' cult-stock status comparable to Tesla or Palantir, where the market prices in optionality beyond core connectivity — including hosting AI data-center payloads (each satellite generating ~120 kilowatts of power, with FPGAs/ASICs onboard and potential future Nvidia GPU-class payloads) and Golden Dome-related defense/government use cases.
  • AST's market capitalization stood at roughly $45 billion at the time of the episode; Anpanman cites a Scotiabank analyst projection of roughly $11 billion in free cash flow by around 2030-2031 as an illustration of how far bulls see the stock potentially re-rating.
  • Anpanman describes short sellers and vocal bears (citing Kerrisdale/a similarly-named short-report author, a SpaceX-employed critic named Philip Lyle, and a Twitter account called 'Tuck Capital') as having lost money or capitulated to long positions, arguing that smart money avoids shorting into a stock with this many upcoming catalysts and instead goes long ahead of the anticipated SpaceX IPO.
  • Anpanman frames 2026 as an inflection year for institutional ownership, pointing to Fidelity's ability to buy up to roughly 15% of a company's shares as an example of the scale of buying that could occur once FCC approval and further constellation/commercial-service milestones are achieved.

Detailed Discussion8 topics

Stock hits new all-time high of $124.32

5
  • Anpanman Confirmed 00:00:25

    Anpanman recounts tweeting around 6:10-6:15am that he had dreamed the stock would break $124 that day, after waking from broken sleep; the stock later hit an intraday high of $124.32 and closed at $121.23, both all-time highs.

  • Anpanman Speculation 00:00:25

    Anpanman notes that the day's move represented roughly '6 market caps worth of AST back in 2024,' illustrating how much larger and less volatile (in percentage terms) the company has become.

  • Anpanman Speculation 00:00:25

    Anpanman and Kook discussed after the close that a lot of company-specific risk has now been de-risked — e.g., losing one or two satellites today would not be a company-ending event, whereas losing BlueWalker 3 during the 2022-2023 period of financial-market uncertainty could have forced the company to raise capital at very bad terms.

  • Anpanman Speculation 00:00:25

    Anpanman contrasts this rally with the 2022-2024 pattern where the stock would spike on a catalyst (e.g., BlueWalker 3 reaching orbit) and then give back the gains because the company was still too early-stage; he argues the stock is now behaving like a maturing company where positive catalysts sustain and 'step function' higher instead of round-tripping.

  • Anpanman Confirmed 00:34:48

    Since Trump signed an executive order on space superiority around the 2nd or 3rd week of December 2025 (AST was at $65 at the time), Anpanman says the stock's technical pattern shifted from three separate impulse moves to one continuous higher-highs/higher-lows channel.

FCC meeting and US market access approval outlook

9
  • Anpanman Confirmed 00:20:02

    On January 23, 2026, AST SpaceMobile, AT&T, Verizon, FirstNet, and consultants Dave Marshak Group and RKF jointly met with the FCC — a rare instance of AT&T and Verizon (competitors) presenting a unified front alongside AST.

  • Anpanman Speculation 00:20:02

    The public comment period on AST's US market/SCS application closed around October 6, 2025, with a short reply period running to roughly the second week of October; Anpanman notes a typical post-comment-period decision window is 2-3 months, putting expected FCC action around late January or the first half of February 2026.

  • Anpanman Speculation 00:30:46

    Anpanman highlights that attorneys/representatives, not principals like AT&T's John Stankey or Verizon's CEO, attended the January 23 meeting — in his view a positive sign, since senior-executive attendance late in a regulatory process usually signals something is going wrong.

  • Anpanman Confirmed 00:30:46

    The same day as the recording, AST sent a follow-up letter to the FCC responding to requests about interference limits, which Anpanman characterizes as the company 'tightening things up' ahead of a decision that could come within days to a couple of weeks.

  • Anpanman Speculation 00:34:48

    Anpanman notes FCC Chairman Brendan Carr has publicly praised both Starlink and AST SpaceMobile and pushed for faster approvals and more freed-up spectrum for direct-to-device, which he reads as further evidence approval is coming soon; he also notes Starlink's own direct-to-device constellation was approved roughly a week or two before this recording.

  • Anpanman Speculation 00:34:48

    If granted, full FCC approval would let AST operate its full 248-satellite constellation without relying on Special Temporary Authority waivers, and would allow the company to turn on commercial service (subject to not causing interference) rather than just launch satellites.

  • Anpanman Speculation 00:34:48

    Anpanman argues US approval will act as a global catalyst: regulators in Europe, Asia, and Africa look to the US framework as a template, so US approval should open the door to faster approvals internationally.

  • Anpanman Speculation 00:34:48

    Anpanman says he can't predict the stock's immediate reaction to FCC approval — it could be up 20-30%, flat, or even sell off short-term — but views it as a huge positive over the medium-to-long term because it validates the company for institutions still waiting on the sidelines.

  • Anpanman Speculation 00:34:48

    Anpanman notes Fidelity already holds a small position and cites the fact that funds like Fidelity can build positions up to roughly 15% of a company's outstanding shares as an example of the scale of buying that could follow FCC approval, similar to the sustained buying seen after the 2024 Verizon deal.

Upcoming satellite catalysts: Bluebird 6, Bluebird 7, and Batch 1/2

4
  • Anpanman Speculation 00:34:48

    SpaceMob due-diligence trackers (citing 'Katzi,' who did similar tracking during BlueWalker 3) monitor satellite drag and orbit data to determine when a satellite has successfully unfolded/detumbled; for Block 2, the design uses a single large arm that unfolds in one direction (versus the two-arm, multi-direction unfold used on Block 1), which Anpanman says should be simpler and lower-risk.

  • Anpanman Speculation 00:34:48

    Bluebird 6 (BB6)'s antenna unfolding is expected 'any moment'; there is speculation within SpaceMob that BB6 also has a tail-mounted solar array for extra power that may have already deployed, though the company has not confirmed this and Anpanman expects limited photo/video release given the proprietary unfolding mechanism.

  • Anpanman Company Guidance 00:34:48

    Bluebird 7 is expected to launch no earlier than the end of February 2026, which in practice likely means early March (e.g., March 1-3) once weather and other factors are accounted for; it will launch on Blue Origin's New Glenn 3, notable as Blue Origin's first attempt to reuse a New Glenn booster.

  • Anpanman Speculation 00:34:48

    Two additional batches of three Bluebirds each ('Batch 1' and 'Batch 2') are expected to ship to Florida for Falcon 9 launches; Anpanman attributes the shipment taking longer than expected to a backlog at Cape Canaveral, including a crewed Falcon 9 mission to the ISS and Starship launch preparations competing for payload-processing facilities.

Golden Dome, political trading, and the broader space economy

3
  • Anpanman Speculation 00:34:48

    Anpanman jokes about the likelihood of politicians such as Nancy Pelosi and Tommy Tuberville buying AST or other space names given momentum around Golden Dome and NDAA-related legislation, noting that politician trades are disclosed only on a delayed basis (in one case, disclosure came 100 days late with only a small fine).

  • Anpanman Confirmed 00:34:48

    Anpanman cites a McKinsey/Goldman Sachs study (shared by a SpaceMob member who works at a hedge fund) projecting the global space economy will grow to $1.8 trillion by 2035, up from $630 billion in 2023.

  • Anpanman Speculation 00:34:48

    Anpanman observes that AST and Rocket Lab tend to trade in correlation as the two main 'newer space' proxies — Rocket Lab has moved from the 50s to around 89 (having touched 100) since the December executive order on space superiority.

Short sellers and market positioning ahead of the SpaceX IPO

3
  • Anpanman Speculation 00:00:25

    Anpanman describes a Twitter hedge-fund account (referenced as something like 'Century Old Ag Credit') that floated shorting AST, then reversed and said he would go long into the SpaceX IPO despite not believing in the company's fundamentals, which Anpanman cites as a sign smart money doesn't want to fight the sector's tailwinds.

  • Anpanman Speculation 00:00:25

    Anpanman recalls historical short sellers (a Kerrisdale/'Terrastale'-type report, and individuals he names as Philip Lyle, a SpaceX employee, and a critic he refers to as 'Tim Ferriss') as having largely lost or made only modest money shorting AST, with one firm's assets under management having dwindled.

  • Anpanman Speculation 00:34:48

    Anpanman notes a Twitter account ('Tuck Capital') that appears to have shorted AST around $50 and again around $70 and is now down significantly, reinforcing his view that it's dangerous to short a name benefiting from powerful secular/sector tailwinds heading into the SpaceX IPO.

S-rank thesis: AI data centers and defense applications beyond connectivity

6
  • Anpanman Speculation 00:51:41

    Anpanman relays hedge-fund commentator Kevin Mack's framing that AST could reach 'S-rank' cult-stock status (an anime power-ranking analogy: D through A rank, with only a handful of S-rank), comparable to Tesla or Palantir, where valuation reflects long-term platform potential rather than near-term financials alone.

  • Anpanman Speculation 00:51:41

    Anpanman compares AST to Nvidia (originally a niche gaming-GPU company that became central to the AI revolution) and to Tesla (more than an EV maker — robotaxis, and Musk's stated plan to halt Model S/X production by year-end to reallocate that line to building robots), arguing AST is similarly underappreciated beyond its 'connect a phone to satellite' use case.

  • Anpanman Speculation 00:51:41

    Anpanman describes each BlueBird satellite as capable of generating about 120 kilowatts of power, with phased arrays/microns on the earth-facing side and solar panels on the outer side, built-in heat dissipation (a major constraint for AI data centers), and FPGAs currently onboard with ASICs being integrated starting in Q1, positioning the constellation as a potential host for future Nvidia GPUs or other AI/TPU-style chips.

  • Anpanman Speculation 00:51:41

    Anpanman argues that once AST's constellation build-out is complete, its manufacturing capacity, trained workforce, automation, and patents for building 5-6 ton satellites could be repurposed for third-party satellite manufacturing deals (e.g., for Google, which currently partners on small CubeSats via Planet but would need a larger dedicated satellite builder), though he says it's unclear whether such deals would be a one-time build or generate ongoing operator/service revenue.

  • Anpanman Company Guidance 00:51:41

    Anpanman notes the company is at roughly 500,000 square feet of manufacturing floor space (with more being added) and is already producing at a cadence of about 6 satellites per month per recent FCC filings (not yet publicly acknowledged by the company), with Scott Wisniewski having talked about ramping to 10-12 satellites per month, driven partly by pulling forward the mid-band constellation and partly by a separate 'government shell' of satellites.

  • Anpanman Speculation 00:51:41

    Anpanman pushes back on bears who value AST off last quarter's reported $14 million of revenue, arguing serious investors price growth/platform companies (comparing AST to biotech, SMRs, or quantum computing names) off future TAM and cash flow potential rather than trailing results, citing a Scotiabank analyst projection of roughly $11 billion in free cash flow by around 2030-2031 — a figure someone noted would put AST in the top 10 of all public companies by free cash flow.

SpaceX IPO and institutional positioning

4
  • Anpanman Speculation 00:51:41

    Anpanman says Elon Musk reportedly wants to pull the SpaceX IPO forward to around June 2026 (to align with his birthday and unspecified planetary timing), which would require a fast SEC review of the S-1 given Musk's closeness to the administration; if not June, Anpanman expects July, and says the company could still pull off a successful IPO in August, though August/September offerings are typically avoided due to lower investor availability.

  • Anpanman Speculation 00:51:41

    Anpanman argues TMT/growth investors who want SpaceX/Starlink exposure but can't get it will increasingly view AST — now at roughly $45 billion market cap — as the pure-play way to gain exposure to the space theme, creating 'schmuck insurance'-style buying pressure (funds not wanting to be seen missing the name), similar to quarter-end momentum buying/selling in other big winners and losers.

  • Anpanman Speculation 00:51:41

    Anpanman cites an unnamed institutional investor on Twitter who bought AST via VWAP around $104-105 (an all-time high at the time) and explained the purchase as 'it's interesting now, I've got to own it' — illustrating the shift toward institutional must-own buying he expects to continue.

  • Anpanman Confirmed 00:51:41

    Anpanman references Viasat receiving a $188 million Ex-Im loan from the US government to build one satellite (announced the day before this recording) as context for AST's own pending application for a $500 million facility, though he is unsure whether AST's application is for satellites or manufacturing; he expects a response to be 'somewhat ripe.'

Personal portfolio management and politics disclaimer

2
  • Anpanman Untagged 00:20:02

    Anpanman states AST SpaceMobile makes up roughly 85% or more of his public-securities portfolio, and explains he maintains a concentrated portfolio of only 5-7 sized positions plus occasional trades in other names (e.g., T1 Energy, Bridger) partly to avoid the psychological trap of over-fixating on every daily tick in a single stock.

  • Anpanman Untagged 00:20:02

    Anpanman explains he deliberately avoids sharing political opinions on Twitter/X, framing his account as focused on investing, and says SpaceMob community spaces (including private chats/Discord) generally avoid political discussion except where policy/legislation directly affects the investment thesis.

Watch Items6

  • FCC decision on AST's US market access / SCS constellation application

    Expected around late January to first half of February 2026, based on a typical 2-3 month post-comment-period window; Anpanman says it could come within days to a couple of weeks of the recording Anpanman 00:20:02
  • Bluebird 6 antenna array unfolding

    Expected 'any moment' / imminently Anpanman 00:34:48
  • Bluebird 7 launch on Blue Origin New Glenn 3

    No earlier than end of February 2026, likely slipping to early March Anpanman 00:34:48
  • Shipment of Batch 1 and Batch 2 (two sets of three Bluebirds) to Cape Canaveral for Falcon 9 launches

    Expected soon, delayed by Cape Canaveral payload-processing backlog Anpanman 00:34:48
  • SpaceX IPO

    Possibly June 2026 (Musk's preferred timing), otherwise July or August 2026 Anpanman 00:51:41
  • AST's pending ~$500 million Ex-Im loan application

    No specific date given; described as 'somewhat ripe,' expects to hear back Anpanman 00:51:41

Open Questions5

  • How will the stock react in the immediate term once FCC approval of the US market/SCS application is granted — up sharply, flat, or a sell-the-news dip?

    Anpanman 00:34:48
  • Will Bluebird 7 launch by the end of February as targeted, or slip into early March given weather sensitivity and Cape Canaveral manifest congestion?

    Anpanman 00:34:48
  • What business model would AST use if it built satellites for third parties like Google for AI-data-center applications — a one-time build-and-hand-over, or an ongoing operator/service-revenue relationship?

    Anpanman 00:51:41
  • Whether AST's pending ~$500 million Ex-Im loan application is intended for satellite production or manufacturing infrastructure.

    Anpanman 00:51:41
  • Exact timing of the SpaceX IPO (June, July, or August 2026) and how it will affect capital flows into AST as a proxy investment.

    Anpanman 00:51:41

Raw Transcript

Show full transcript
[00:00:06] Speaker A: This is the AST SpaceMobile Podcast. We will just basically come to your phone and be seamless regardless of where you are. We don't want the user even to know that it's connected by satellite. Listen, the opportunity that we have is very, very, very large.
[00:00:25] Speaker B: Hey everyone, thanks for joining this, um, ad hoc space at 11 o'clock. I'm going to try to keep this somewhat short, but I always say that at the beginning of these things and then they always go over pretty long. But I am pretty tired. Um, yesterday I was up late and this, this was part of the call, I guess, for this morning when I had tweeted out that I had dreamed that the stock price was going to break $124. Yesterday I was up late, I think it was until 1:00 AM. And one of the things about investing is that you can fill your time pretty easily because there's always an insurmountable wall of opportunity where, and this is the one of the positive things about investing, but also one of the things that can really drain you as well is that especially when I was working professionally, you always thought that if I spend additional time and try to learn more about a particular position or get some type of edge, like a funny story, I used to, when I had my, when I was at, in the hedge fund industry, and I remember there was one year where I was always looking at my phone and looking at my Bloomberg app, just checking to see if news was going to break. Because I covered a lot of event-driven situations. And for M&A, like you're always looking for rumors, whether that was from Wall Street Journal, Bloomberg, or what have you. And if something was breaking, you wanted to be on top of it and get ready for it for the next morning or that evening. And so I'd always check. I just had this terrible habit and my wife, would always reprimand me for it, but I would always be checking my phone. And at one point there was a time when Bloomberg, the IT people reached out to me and they asked me these questions like, hey, were you logged in? Were you checking news here and there? And through these questions, I started to figure out that they were seeing if I was scraping their news because they were afraid that maybe I was taking their information and using it or selling it or doing something else. And then I told him, no, I'm actually just a loser. I keep checking information at all hours of the night. And so, but yeah, that's the funny thing about investing is that if you want, there's, you could basically work 24/7, which I'm kind of scared that there's these proposals to have the markets open 24/7. I think that's pretty, that would be really bad for mental health and yeah, for work-life balance. But yeah, I, You know, when I do have some free time, I will take a look at whether it's situations that I'm involved in or new ideas. You know, I'll spend some amount of time on that. And more recently, because the market has been doing well and there's all these other ideas that are floating around, people have been asking me to look at them and I'll take a look at some of them. But anyway, kind of, I guess, going off on a tangent, but last night I was up till 1:00 AM and then I decided to call it a night and when I stay up that late, I oftentimes will not get good sleep and I have to wake up early because the kids get up early as well. And, you know, it's my job to make breakfast and get them ready for school. But I think I woke up at like 3:50 AM because I used to cover Europe. And so I have this habit of waking up early for the European Open, even though I don't do anything with Europe now. But I woke up and I couldn't, You know, it was hard for me to go back to sleep. So of course I checked news, which is bad because then you start, you know, getting your brain working and it's hard to go back to sleep. And so I tried to put myself back to sleep. And then during one of these periods of, you know, 20 minutes of sleep or 30 minutes of sleep, that's when it— I had this like vivid picture that, oh, AST is going to break $124 today. And it was like very bizarre. And so that's when When I finally did wake up, I think it was like 6:10 or 6:15 when I tweeted, but I was like, hey, you know what? This is kind of fun. I'll just tell people what happened. Like I dreamed that we would break $124 today. And so I tweeted that and then I went back to sleep or tried to. And then of course I got up at 6:50 and then did what I had to do. But it was kind of funny because over the course of the day, you know, the stock was strong and of course various people were speculating, oh, why is the stock strong? Well, maybe, maybe, you know, any number of catalysts as we've talked about, which I'll cover later in this space, but any number of catalysts can be coming up. But one of them which kind of stood out once, I forgot which Base Mob person had found the FCC meeting, but the meeting between AT&T, Verizon, FirstNet, Dave Marshak Group, RKF, and then of course AST. They met with the FCC. And so that was a pretty important data point. And I tweeted it and the stock didn't do anything. And I was like, hey guys, this is really important. You guys should pay attention. This is alpha. And I'll talk a bit more about it, but that meaning in and of itself, given the back and forth between the company and the FCC. And of course, the ending of the comment period in early October, like that was a telltale sign. Like we're pretty close, pretty close to the endgame for the US approval for US market application, which is a huge deal. And I'll talk more about it later. But yeah, it was kind of fun just seeing the stock price kind of going going back and forth. And today was a bit of a volatile day, especially with the Fed decision looming. And so the stock was strong, and then of course, like ASD normally does, it sold off, came back down, and then it moved back up. And lo and behold, it got to $120, $121, $122, and I was like, no, really? It's going to happen? And it happened. It broke $124 today. So I think the high was $124.32. And it was funny because I'd come across the meme of Fat Vance dancing and I think it was like 2 days ago, somebody had posted that meme of him dancing and saying like, oh, this is what happens when you get 2 sticks of 16 gigabyte RAM for really cheap or something. And they had him dancing and I was like, oh, I'm going to take that because one day it's going to be useful. And of course, I didn't realize that it was going to be today, just 2 days later. So that was fun. And yeah, I think part of me doing this space is just to memorialize the fact that we've reached this all-time high. I mean, $124.32 intraday high, which is insane, and closing price of $121.23, an all-time high. And so When you take a step back and think about where we've come from, yeah, it's pretty crazy. Like, you know, of course, like some people day to day, the stock rises down, it'll be up. Obviously there's still some decent amount of volatility, but sometimes I have to remind people, like slap them around. It's like, hey, did you know that today the stock moved like 6 market caps worth of AST back in 2024? So Chill out. Like, it's, we've come a long way, relatively speaking. Yeah, there's going to be some volatility. It's a feature, not a bug, and just get used to it. It's all right. Because we're at this point where, and Kuk and I talked about it after the close today, we're at this point where a lot of the risk, you know, a lot of things have been de-risked. And when he talked about This past weekend in his space about, you know, if you have one satellite break or something bad happens, it's okay. The company can survive that. Like, it's actually, at some point we should all prepare ourselves for one satellite or 2 satellites or whatever it is, like eventually not working. Hopefully not in the way that the company approaches, you know, production and how they execute. I don't, I don't think that's a high likelihood, but it's possible. But that's not like a company-ending type of event versus if we had lost BlueBlocker 3 during that period of uncertainty in the financial markets, that could have been an extinction type of event, or maybe not extinction, but definitely the company would've been in a really tough spot and would've had to raise money at really bad levels and I don't even want to think about it. But now we're at this point where a lot of things have been de-risked and a lot of things near term, literally in the next few weeks, are going to be de-risked further. And so that's why I think the stock has continued to build a base and you've got this tailwind of this administration wanting space superiority. And I joke, I tweet like, hey, it's not that hard, guys. Just look at this. Which is true. It's just like someone playing AI themes last year. You just buy these things and you just hold onto 'em. And it was funny because like there's this one Twitter account who's a hedge fund guy. His name is Century Old Ag Credit or something like that. But he was, he had tweeted, oh, maybe I should write a short thesis on AST. And then I responded to him. I was like, yes, please bring it on. You know, with the, the Montgomery Burns meme of him saying excellent. But, and then Cook kind of egged him on a little bit too, no pun intended. But then this guy was like, well, no, I'm not going to be short this thing. I'm actually going to be long. He's like, I don't believe in this company, but I'm not dumb. I'm going to be long AST heading into the SpaceX IPO. And that was actually a change in tone. And that's something that I would expect, right? Because the hedge funds, I mean, For the smart guys who actually want to make money, even if you don't believe in something, the last thing you want to do is like short it, right? You don't want to short into a huge deluge of catalysts and tailwinds that are going to push a stock against you. And if you're really smart, if you can actually kind of get over your bias of smarter than these retail guys and, you know, I'm going to own this thing, or I'll figure out ways to justify owning it, then you actually go long and you make money, which is pretty astounding. Like if you think about some of the short sellers over the years, whether it's Kerrisdale or I guess, who is it? Gosh, I'm forgetting. Lakeside. Lakeview Capital, I forget their name, Anthony Bozza, or like any of these guys, right? Like they probably, like for, let's say Terrastale, for example, they wrote this long report and they made money. I think the stock went that day they put the report out, they probably shorted at an average of $11, $10. Stock went down to like maybe $6 or $7. So they made like a decent amount of change. It was a one-time thing. They made money and they probably traded it around here or there and probably took a little, a few crumbs here and there over the course of the years. Because I remember like even after the Block 1 launch, they of course, Bloomberg interviewed them as part of this seminal event and they're like, oh yeah, we don't think this changes anything. We're short AST. And I remember reading that and I was just like, oh, come on, really? Like you guys are around still? But I'm sure they've made like, they probably made maybe $1, $2 million, $3 million. I mean, they're not running a very big book. Their AUM has actually dwindled quite a bit. But I just sit there and think like, what happened? What would have happened if they or any of these bears, like for example, this guy Philip Lyle who works at SpaceX, he just continues to write. He's like a space enthusiast, but all he writes about is like negative shit on AST. Or Tim Ferriss, anybody listening to Tim Ferriss. I mean, there's a whole host of these people and they've just been writing negative stuff about the company. Like Tim Ferriss has not written one positive thing for 5 years, but all these guys, like they've spent so much time and energy fighting this company and the stock is like at $122. Like they wasted so much of their life dedicated to putting like fear, uncertainty, doubt, you know, hurting, trying to kneecap this company and they failed. And like me and you, we spent so much, we spent, you know, obviously more time than them. I don't know, some of them are pretty crazy, but we have something to show for it. Like we've made a a ton of money. But these guys, um, they spent so much time, like, you know, there, there was a point I'm at the age where if I spend too much time on Twitter, my eyes start hurting. Like, that's what these guys are doing and they have nothing to show for it. Right? Like they spent so much, you know, rent. Tim Ferriss talks about rent-free. They spent so much time on it and it was for nothing. And so sometimes I think about that and I'm like, Man, how, how shitty must that feel? You must be, you know, it's, it must be a really hollow feeling that you've dedicated precious time of your life, which is limited and it's very valuable to spreading fear, uncertainty, and doubt about this company. And, and you were wrong. And, and they continue to do that today, right? Like the Free Speech, this other guy, like they, I don't know. It's just, it's bizarre. But anyway, yeah. So today it was pretty nuts. Like the fact that we hit $124, like on one hand I was really happy and, you know, people were excited. On the other hand, it wasn't like the time when Verizon, you know, when we signed the deal with Verizon and we were gapping up every day. Now it kind of feels like, oh yeah, that's what it should be doing. And then I'm like, oh well, you know, like tomorrow or next week, like I think we're going higher. So I don't, back in the day when there was, you know, in 2022 and 2023, 2024, I mean all those years, there was always this fear. And Cook is like, he still has this PTSD. Like he's He's like one of these guys who grew up during the Depression. Like he'll keep that mentality. And so when he sees the stock gap up or move up, he's always like, oh, he always has in the back of his mind, like he's afraid that it'll come back down. And so he, it's unclear if he's good at handling the move up. And so, but for me, but, and especially now it's like that back in 2022 and 2023, that happened. for sure. Like the stock would move up and it was a trading vehicle and then it would, it'd give up everything and move down. And of course people, you know, you'd have this like false dawn of, oh man, things have changed, it's rerated. And then of course, no, it's back then we thought, oh, these catalysts, like getting BlueArk 3 up, that's going to be a big unlock. No, the company was so early that it was a positive thing, but And, you know, obviously there was like a positive reaction, but it was short-lived because it was still early stage and early stage companies that trade in public markets, it can be tough, right? And so it's not sustainable. Whereas now there's so many actual things that are happening. And of course, like the company's generating revenue and this coming year, 2026 is going to be very big. Now we're experiencing what it feels like to be a more mature company, right? Where it's like, oh yeah, these positive catalysts happen and the stock sustains and it keeps like step functioning higher. Like that's how it's supposed to work. And so yeah, I think from a mental perspective, it probably takes it for most of a space mom. It's a big adjustment. And I don't think it's something that it's probably going to take some time to get used to. But for me, I think I'm already there where I'm just like, oh, okay. Yeah. Like we're going to keep moving up and I'm cool with that. So I did want to cover a few small things and then we can get into some catalysts. And so one thing I wanted to talk about, and I tried to avoid this, but I was like, eh, you know, I'll talk about it. But Recently there was like, there's been like some political back and forth stuff on AST. And I just want to say like, I'm a nice person. I do have political views, but I don't share them. And I try to be very apolitical on Twitter because people, and this is my MO, right? Like when I post stuff on Twitter, it's focused on investment, investing, some life stuff. You know, like I'll share things that are, that are, that I find joy in sometimes, but I avoid politics because it's like this entire platform is full of politics. I don't want to, when people follow me and they, you know, they, I'm, they're not looking for, I hope they're not looking for political advice or angle or view because That's not what I'm about. Like, we're here for this specific platform and for what I'm doing and what I find joy in doing is investing and sharing ideas and, you know, talking about my experiences and helping people out if I can. Hopefully it's helping people out, but I avoid politics, right? And I know people have reached out to me from time to time and, you know, sometimes I'll comment like if something bad has happened, Like when Charlie Kirk got murdered, I was like, man, that's really sad. Like people getting assassinated, that's not good. And then I got a bunch of blowback from people like, why? What about this person and that person? And it's like, I'm not a polit— I'm not a political figure. And that's not what I'm peddling, right? I just, I'm just making a comment as a human. But you know, it's like when people have asked me from time to time, like, hey, what about Palestine? Or what about Israel? Or what about, You know, the recent stuff that's going on, it's like, I'm not a politician. I don't spend a lot of time delving into politics. I actually, if anything, I've moved away from politics because it's just too exhausting. But it's almost like that, it's almost like, what was it? That comedy skit with, gosh, why am I forgetting his name? But—
[00:20:01] Speaker A: Bill Maher.
[00:20:02] Speaker B: It's a joke where everyone's like, oh, well, what, you know, something bad happens and then it's like, well, what would Ja Rule think? And it's like, who cares what Ja Rule thinks? Like, for me too, it's like, who cares what I think? Like, I'm not an expert. I don't follow current events closely enough to have an impactful opinion. And as someone who is of influence, it's not my job, nor do I desire to wield politics or try to influence people. Right? Like it's not, yeah, it's just something I avoid. And for me, like whether it's for the companies I'm invested in, the friends that I've made, like I just try to put politics aside. And for Space Mob, like there are people like in our, we do have some like Twitter chats and some other, you know, there's other groups, like there's Discord and others. Like one of the things that we all try to do is not talk politics. The only times like politics actually comes into discussion is if it impacts your investment, right? And so if there's policy or legislation, then yeah, you can talk a bit about that. But when it comes to people's opinions about politics, like I avoid that stuff because I'm— the last thing I want to do is like start flooding people with my opinions on politics. And it's like, if you seek that, first of all, like Again, I'm just one person with a very unique background and experience, and mine is very different than yours. And if you need political guidance from somebody else, then you're not doing it right. You gotta think on your own. And so I think like for other people, yeah, if you're here to follow me, you're probably wanting to hear about AST SpaceMobile or T1 Energy or Bridger or some of these other investment ideas or new stuff or I'm going to talk about warrants on Friday. And so if you want to do politics, like go follow the, you know, the talking heads. That's not me. So, and you know, people try to make, because I have a lot of followers, like people try to sometimes make me feel bad. They're like, hey, well you should stand up or you should do this or that. And it's like, no, I'm not going to do that because that's not what people are following me for. If I became a pundit, then sure. But that's, you know, and I'm not going to, Yeah, sometimes I feel bad and it's like, well, maybe I should say something about this particular topic or another. But then I remind myself, like, that's not— I'm not here to peddle like certain views and make people feel awkward or like they need to follow me or like, oh, I need to agree with him, or I don't like that guy. Like, he's, you know, he disagrees with me. And that's one that candidly, I think over the last 5 years, I've learned is that with Space Mob, there's people from all walks of life, and I've learned to get along with everyone, right? And so, because it's like we had this common interest, which is, you know, it's almost like our kid, this company. And so we put politics aside and ideology aside, and sometimes we disagree, sometimes it can get messy, but at the same time, we all come together. Like we have this friendship and it's it's bigger. It's beyond politics, right? And so, you know, I respect people for their views and some, and not, well, not everybody's every view, but I just try to keep it tight into what I do, which is just investing. And so, yeah, I just wanted to talk about that. And I think, you know, if there are people, and I, by the way, like this is not a, People can express views that they want to. They're free to do that. I'm not the politics police. Like, if you are on Twitter doing investing and you want to have a political view and you want to go share it, then that's all, you know, go ahead. That's fine. But there's probably a high chance that I'm not going to follow you because that's where I'm trying to get away from that. Like, I'm one of the people on Twitter Twitter where it's like, hey, if you, if there's a way to just eliminate politics and like one way to do that, for example, is to unfollow Elon Musk because then it's like, oh, all of a sudden like there's not as much political stuff going on. But you know, I try to follow just investment-related accounts or accounts of interest. But yeah, that's up to you and you can curate like who you want and that's fine. And I'm not, again, I'm not here to push political views on anybody. I hope people don't feel that way. And when I use like today JD Vance dancing, it's not as if like I'm a huge fan of him or I hate him, any of those things. I just thought the meme was funny. So anyway, but that's my little blurb on politics. I have, some people have asked me about, you know, why aren't you 100% AST SpaceMobile? Why do you talk about other investment ideas? And It's just my personal preference. Like AST, I've told people in the past, like it's probably 85% or more of my public securities portfolio. And so, but I'm an investor by heart and that was my career. And so I've gotta keep my mind fresh. And when there's interesting stuff out there, like I'll go research it, share those ideas as well. And so yeah, it's just part of my DNA and it's fun. Like maybe you, you're not going to find the next ASTS, but you might find some interesting ideas. And then I like to share those. And so hopefully those are good ideas. Sometimes they don't work out. But one thing I've learned though is, you know, I run a very concentrated portfolio, so I only have, you know, maybe 5, 6, 7 ideas of size. And then I might have some trades here and there, but excuse me, but One good thing about that is if you are sometimes like, there can be a dearth of news or like on ASTS, some, you know, some people fall into this trap of if you're 100% all in on ASTS and the stock is up, then people are like, oh, why is the stock up? Or if it's low, heaven forbid the stock is down. Oh my gosh, why is it down? Why is it doing this? Like, why, where the algo's killing me and why has God forsaken me? It's like, no, it's just part of market volatility. It's okay. And sometimes like if you have a few other positions that you follow, then that doesn't, you don't feel this, yeah, the gravity of just one position where it's like, it's almost like a distraction. Like you have these other things that you're following as well. And so, you know, if if ASD's down, I don't, I mean, making something up, like if it's down 5, 6% and it's pretty brutal, but then this other position's up a few percent, then mentally you can kind of get yourself to this point where you're like, oh, there's something positive going on and I'll focus on that and not really worry about ASD because I know it's volatile and it may move for no reason. And so having a few other ideas can help mentally and If anything, you know, like I've said, there are some people who are 100% concentration, which is totally fine. Like, I'm not against that in any means, but sometimes you'll have these, again, like these people who will, you know, every, they'll watch every tick and every tick has to be explained. And so sometimes it's good to have a distraction and it doesn't have to be investing. Like, hey, you can go out and go fishing. go run, do other things instead of just being glued to your computer and watching the stock prices all day. But anyway, but yeah, it's just part of who I am. Like I'm always looking at investment ideas and sharing them and it just happens. Like there's quite a few interesting stuff, interesting ideas going on right now. So Which, which, yeah, I enjoy. But anyway, going to the next topic, which is catalyst. And so, and that was the headline of this space, which is, you know, things are happening, it's happening, right? And so I think the first big one that I wanted to talk about is this meeting with the FCC. And so for those that saw I think it was January 23rd, the company, AT&T, Verizon, FirstNet, and Dave Marshak, who's a consultant who's been doing work for the company, they all met with the FCC. And what was interesting about that meeting is that, you know, you have all the key stakeholders of the US that were there, and this comes after you know, the, the company, the comment period for the US market application for supplemental coverage from space, the, that comment period ended, I think it was like October 6th. And then there was like a short reply period and then response to that. Maybe it was like up until the second week of October. But I think it's, and there's nothing typical, but usually you might have, you know, a 2 to 3 month period where after the comments, are closed, then you'll have a decision potentially. And of course, like it depends on how complicated that decision is. But timing-wise, you know, I was expecting that we would hear in regards to hear about our application sometimes towards the end of January or the first half of February. And so we're kind of there, right? And so that meeting, that meeting was on top of a few other meetings that have happened or letters or correspondence, but That's the type of meeting you want to see, right? So you have the stakeholders involved, everyone shows up. It's not just like AT&T separately or Verizon separately, like they're there together, which is pretty crazy. We joke about the fact that they're, these 2 rivals are sharing the same toothbrush or underwear. But yeah, that's an important meeting, but it's important in a sense of this, it's It kind of indicates like we're close to the end, right? Like maybe we're crossing the T's and dotting the I's. The thing that you don't want to see in those meetings are, and I looked at, you know, who the participants were. These were attorneys or, you know, representatives, but not the actual principals. Like you didn't have John Stanky showing up or, you know, senior executive showing up, but you had like, you know, attorneys there.
[00:30:45] Speaker A: Yeah.
[00:30:46] Speaker B: And they're basically kind of wrapping things up in my mind, right? And so that's, those are the types of people you want in that meeting. If you had the CEO of Verizon and AT&T showing up for that meeting, that would be a really bad sign, right? Or not, I wouldn't say really bad sign, but it's not a good sign, right? Because when you have really senior people showing up for those meetings towards the end, that means like there's something wrong. And things are not going the way you want. And so if Abel was there and, and Stanky, and I apologize, I forget who, since there's a new CEO at Verizon, I forget his name. Let me just look at here. So Dan, Dan Schulman, if Dan Schulman was there, if those 3 guys were there, that would not be good. Right. But you didn't have those guys there. You had the, you had attorneys and and whatever else representatives. And so that's positive. It's very positive, right? And then today, after that letter was found by Space Mob, there was a letter from AST to the FCC on some follow-up items about interference limits. And that one seemed very much like, here's a few— here's a response to some of your requests. And it seemed like they were just tightening things up. So I think we're pretty much I mean, we might see a few more letters and, you know, it could be as soon as tomorrow. It could be Friday, it could be next week, or it could be the week after, but we're pretty damn close, right? And so, but what does that mean? Like I was talking to Cook about this earlier and it means that we will have just like, you know, by the way, like Starlink just got approved for Their direct-to-device constellation, I guess it was like a week or two ago. And of course everyone has seen Brendan Carr, his positive comments about wanting to speed and be supportive of American innovation around direct-to-device, like not only cutting red tape for approvals, but freeing up even more spectrum, which by the way, like Starlink needs more spectrum for their solution to work. So obviously they went out and got some. But it looks like they're probably— sorry, I'm just drinking some water, but it looks like they're probably advocating to get more spectrum freed up because I think their solution is going to need it if they want to do broadband. But the fact that Chairman Carr is pounding the table that we want American leadership, he's talked about Starlink, he's talked about AST SpaceMobile, I mean, the writing's on the wall, like the approval's coming. It's just a matter of, is it tomorrow? Is it Friday? Is it next week or the week after? Like we, we say it's inevitable. And so that's going to be a huge watershed moment for the company because for those that have been around since 2021, 2022, like around that time, there were just so many naysayers who doubted that we would get US market access, right? And so that's really valuable. Like Starlink has that, Amazon Leo has that, and of course the legacy guys have that, but there's no one else who has that. And it's a long process. I mean, the company first filed its application, I think back in 2019, 2020. And so this is a long time coming, right? And so having that in hand, what does that do? It depends. Like if they give full approval that then, you know, we can start chunking up satellites without getting special temporary authorities, which is the way that, you know, basically waivers, which is the way we've been doing it. Um, but yeah, they would, the, the FCC would approve a constellation of 248 satellites and then like, go ahead. Yeah, go ahead. Go, go do it. And it's not just a matter of launching them, but then you can turn on commercial service, right? As long as you're not harming other people.
[00:34:46] Speaker A: Yeah.
[00:34:48] Speaker B: So that's very valuable. Like, just to give you an example, if the company, heaven forbid, fell on hard times, the fact that we have that agreement, US market access, you could actually go sell that to somebody else or someone would acquire you to then take over your slots. Of course, they couldn't do something that's totally different, but within the parameters of that grant, they could then start a constellation that, you know, had similar, you know, technologies and uses of frequencies and things like that. But that's really valuable, right? And so what I mentioned, you know, when I had the conversation with Cook, it's like, okay, well, what if we get this approval? What does that mean? And candidly, like, in terms of stock price, I couldn't tell you and he couldn't either. 'Cause, you know, maybe the stock is up 20%, 30%, maybe it's flat, maybe it was expected and maybe it like sells off a little bit. But over the long run or over the medium and long term, I mean, it's a huge positive, right? Because it's a point of validation and regulators around the world will look to it, right? Because the US is is the leader right now because of what the company's doing and what Starlink's doing. And so when people look at regulatory frameworks, they look for the US as lead. And so once that happens, then I think the dam will break open where other regulators are like, oh, okay, so these guys have approval that gives me a framework to evaluate this and eventually lead to approval for use. And in Europe, in Asia, Africa, wherever it is. And so that's a really big deal. And I think for naysayers, that's, again, that's going to be a huge seminal event where it's like, oh wow, they got it. And that could be a catalyst too for some of these funds. I know Fidelity has a small position, but you know, it could be something where you have long-only managers who are waiting for the company to get validation from the FCC, basically the go-ahead, right, to launch commercial service. And so that's where you might walk in one day and Fidelity, the portfolio manager there is like, okay, I want to buy a 5% position in the company, VWAP it over 3 weeks. And you'll have this period just like, you know, we saw in 2024 where the stock like just keeps going up nonstop. And that's because like institutions are buying. I mean, the thing about Fidelity, for those that don't know, like they do have a limit. They can only buy up to 15% of a company's outstanding shares, but that's really big. Like if they have conviction in a company, they will go to 15, or it's not 15, they go to 14.99999% or whatever it is. But yeah, that could be a big unlock, or not could be, it should be a big unlock. For probably a lot of institutions that are sitting on the sidelines who still think like, oh, this company's pre-revenue and they don't have a commercial, US commercial market access yet. And then when that happens, it's like, oh, the narrative completely changes, right? Because then it's like, wow, they actually got it done. The FCC is comfortable with the parameters in which they're operating in the technology and it's happening. It's not a pipe dream anymore. So that is a very big catalyst. And when I think it was like a week ago, actually it wasn't a week ago, it was early, was it? Yeah, maybe it was a week ago or no, it was the other day and a week ago when I was like, oh, I'm adding Torx, like just some speculative upside. I was adding in part because of that. And then of course some of these other catalysts too, right? And so For those, for people that don't know, like I have a large core position that I just don't touch in the company. And then I do trade around some shares and some options as well. Most of that will happen in like retirement accounts because it's tax advantaged, but I also do that in a cash account. But I do that not as if, you know, when I, because there are some people who are like, whoa, why are you buying at $120 or whatever? You know, when I don't think I bought at 128. I think I bought like at 112 is the highest I've paid recently. And then like 101, 102, those areas. But yeah, it's like, oh, well, I'm playing some of these catalysts, right? Because of the great due diligence that FaceMop has done, like we know that some of these things are coming up and so I expect some, something positive to happen, right? And so those catalysts are, for example, like BB6, you've got whole host of people that are following the satellite and how much drag it's experiencing. Because we've learned, and this is through due diligence, whether it was BlueWalker 3 and then of course Block 1 satellites, there's this pattern. I mean, it's not going to be perfect because these satellites are much bigger and they have a different unfolding mechanism, but there's some telltale signs to know when a satellite has unfolded and if that's been successful, right? And Katzi did this in the early days for BlueWalker 3, where people were kind of, you know, they were biting their nails, right? Because we were all wondering if the satellite was okay, if it had detumbled, detumbled meaning it's stable and it's in the proper orbit. It's not like, you know, rolling over end over end or any of that stuff. And so That there is a way to kind of track these things. And in particular for the previous generation of satellites, there was, you know, the initial unfold, which is in the bar configuration, where if you can imagine your left and right arms go out from your body and that's the bar configuration. And then your arms from there, the array unfolds in 2 directions up and down. And so But here for this, as we've speculated with Block 2, it'll just be one large arm that goes out and then it'll unfold in one direction. So it's much, it's much simpler in design and so prone to less risk of complications. But, you know, we'll have to see how that looks in terms of, you know, the data. And then once we see that, then you can apply that for future satellites, for Block 2 satellites, because they all will follow the kind of same pattern. But yeah, that speculation is going on. I mean, BB-6 should be unfolding relatively soon, or perhaps part of it is unfolded. There's been some speculation that this satellite in particular has also a tail that has a solar array for extra power. I think there's some speculation that maybe that's happened, but the company is going to release it when it does and we'll get a PR. And I'm not sure if they'll actually show video of it. They did show a little bit of it last time, but the unfolding mechanism for this current design is, they want to keep it as proprietary as possible. So I'm not sure we'll see any video, but maybe we'll see a picture or two. But I would expect that to happen any moment. So that's exciting. And then of course we've got Bluebird 7 launch, that's going to happen. No earlier than the end of February. And so just wanna remind people, in space speak, no earlier means that the best date something will go is at that set time. And so when they say no earlier than the end of February, it could be February 26th, 27th, but then it's also most part, or it's likely to happen sometime thereafter. So it could be March 1st, March 2nd, March 3rd. As we know, like launches are impacted by weather because you want to have optimal conditions, especially for launching satellites that are lower, that are bigger in size. And of course that are worth more to your constellation. You want to be very careful. The reason why Starlink doesn't do that or SpaceX doesn't do that is that they're trekking up like batches and batches of these things. And so the standard of when they will launch, whether, you know, impact, the impact of weather or solar flares or things like that, it's not as much of a consideration. But for us it is. And so, you know, I would expect that we'll launch maybe if we're lucky by the end of February, but it's probably going to be really early March for BB-7. And then The other things to look out for are Batch 1 and Batch 2, which are the, the, the two, the, the pair of 3s that will go up on Falcon 9. And sorry, I, I forgot to mention BB-7. Most of you guys know this, but will be going up on Blue Origin New Glenn 3, which will be interesting 'cause that's, that's a new vehicle. They're reusing the booster. Never tell me the odds. And so part of the, the Blue Origin program is to demonstrate and prove that they can reuse these boosters, have a pretty quick turnaround time, and be successful doing that. And so this is going to be a very important mission for them, and of course important for us. And then, um, you know, we should at some point see the shipment of 2 batches of 3 Bluebirds, um, down to Florida. And there's, there's a number of theories of why that's taking longer than expected. Um, I mean, The most visible part would be that there's quite a bit of backup down at the Cape. You've got processing with the manned Falcon 9 mission that's going to the space station. And then you've got Starship, they're preparing to launch that as well. And so processing payloads, you wouldn't send down satellites if there weren't— excuse me, if the processing Facilities were not ready to handle those. And so, you know, and I think obviously the company wants to avoid saying, well, we're ready, but SpaceX is not ready or vice versa. Maybe we aren't ready, but they're ready. But you never want to, you know, you never want to throw your ride, your launch provider under the bus. And so, but I expect that to happen soon. And then of course, like we've got, we've got More golden dome stuff that could be coming. I sent out this meme today about about the eventuality of Nancy Pelosi and Timmy Tuberville. For our foreign listeners, these are two U.S. senators. Pelosi, I think her reputation precedes her. She's probably one of the best traders of all time, probably helped by the fact that she has inside information. as a politician in the US, we don't have proper rules and controls in place to keep politicians from using their positions of privilege to using that to profit. And so, you know, there are these like investment services that follow the trades of politicians, which these politicians, like they'll report their trades, but it's on a delayed basis. And so, you'll find out they might have a new position in the company, but it might be weeks. In some cases, this one politician, I think it was like in a news article today, she didn't disclose her trade until 100 days later and she got slapped a fine of like a few hundred bucks. But anyway, but yeah, Nancy Pelosi and then Tommy Tuberville, who was a former coach at University of Alabama. He's a senator from Alabama, but he also has this penchant for very profitable trades. But I pointed that out as kind of a joke, but it's actually, I would expect we probably start seeing some politicians buy some space names, whether it's AST or Rocket Lab or some of these other names, just given all the movement around Golden Dome, the NDAA, and then of course like the various legislation that's being pushed around and and money being granted, I would not be surprised to see some senators and representatives in the House pick up positions in AST. I'd be shocked, quite candidly. I think it would be too hard for any of them to not have that itchy trigger finger and get involved. And so I think we should probably expect that in the coming few months, especially after the FCC grants US market application. And there's probably some politicians who are close to, who see that coming down the pike and are like, hey, I'm going to buy that, buy in front of that. So it's, I think one thing that I try to remind people is that, and this is kind of related to politics, it's like this administration is focused on space. They want Golden Dome to be a reality before Trump leaves office. And so there's a ton of tailwinds, right? And actually, let me see, one of our Space Mob guys who works at a hedge fund shared this with me today, which I'm going to tweet out later. But it's, there's this study, I think McKinsey and Goldman Sachs did this study where they think the global space economy will be worth $1.8 trillion by 2035. Up from $630 billion in 2023. And so yeah, it's kind of interesting because I think as most of us know, for the last several years, space was, aside from SpaceX, which was deemed the only serious company that was doing anything of note, all these other companies were kind of just too early in the stage of development or space is too small. It's very niche. But it's becoming mainstream and there are real investment dollars that are, I mean, it's happening now, right? Like you can tell the fact that, was it Trump signed the executive order for space superiority? I think it was like, let me go back, but I think it was like the 2nd or 3rd week of December that came out. And I could probably put an index together of all the space names, but You know, at that time, for example, AST was at $65. 'Cause I remember vividly, like the stock had pulled back and then he signed the executive order. And of course it was pretty volatile. It was interesting. We actually have had this, I've talked about this before, but we moved away from these like 3 peaks, like 3 impulse moves to now we're just, for the technical guys out there, we're on this like channel all the way up. It's been It's actually, if you look at the early December, you know, we've made higher highs and higher lows, right? And so since that point in time, if you look at like any other space names, just look at the other space proxy. And I've mentioned this before, like Rocket Lab and AST basically not, well, not all the time, but they do trade on top of one another. Like if AST is positive for the day and Rocket Lab's down and AST stays positive, then Rocket Lab will eventually kind of, you know, recover. And vice versa, if AST's having a bad day but Rocket Lab got upgraded, AST will eventually recover too. Or if one goes down, then the other one kind of goes down. And that's like day to day. But then over like a longer time period, obviously those 2 stocks have, if the performance is differed a bit, but they actually do trade somewhat in line. And so I, you know, when you look at the space industry and kind of newer space companies, I kind of view AST and Rocket Lab as the kind of the 2 big proxies of the sector. Of course, other companies have performed pretty well too, but since that December, you know, the executive order for space superiority, I mean, Rocket Lab was in the 50s. Now it's like it, 89. It's been flirting with 100. I mean, it did touch 100, but I think for some of these short sellers, and I've mentioned this before, like, you know, one thing you don't want to do is you don't want to be short names. However, you know, depending on, you can debate like the level quality of the names, but you don't want to short a sector that is thematically the place to be.
[00:51:40] Speaker A: Right?
[00:51:41] Speaker B: And that space, and that's going to be true heading into the SpaceX IPO. And then what happens after that IPO is unclear, but the demand is going to be there for the entire sector. And so for people like, I see Tuck Capital author, for guys like Valuations who shorted the company, I think looking at his post, I think he was short at 50 at some point, and maybe he's He was short 70, like he's down big, right? And you don't— I mean, it's one thing to kind of pick at a company in particular, but when the secular trends are so powerful, you just don't want to be short those names. And then on the flip side, like you actually want to be long. And so I mentioned that one Twitter account who was saying he was skeptical of the company. He called it Ask Mobile or something. And then Cook was like, well, are you going to short it? And he was like, no, I'm going to go long because, um, because I'm like, that's the trade. You need to be long AST and some of these other companies heading into the SpaceX IPO. And this is what I was talking about before, where it's like the smart guys to understand how to make money and trade, they will be long and that's going to be the consensus trade, right? And so, um, and that's why I tell people, Over the last few weeks, like have a plan, right? When the bankers, I think Musk was trying to pull the IPO forward to like June because it's going to line up with some, I can't, I don't remember, it was like some planetary things, but, and his birthday. So he wants to have that happen to happen in June, which is actually pretty quick because they're going to have to file the S-1, the IPO prospectus, and then go through an SEC My guess is that the SEC is going to try to push that through pretty quickly, just given how special Musk is and how close he is to the administration. So maybe it happens in June, but if not, like we're probably looking at July. And then if it doesn't happen in July, I mean, I think this company has the pull to still be, to do an ex— a successful IPO in August, but you typically want to stay away from an August and September offering because people are away for holiday. But yeah, that's why I think, you know, making sure that you have a plan because, you know, Kevin Mack had talked about this before, but, and I agree with him, the ingredients for AST to become an S-rank in anime, there's this idea you can pick any number of of series, whether it's like One Punch Man or Solo Leveling. But there's this schema for ranking heroes and also for evil guys, which is like C rank is a low— there's D rank is low, C, B, A. If you're an A rank hero, that's really high. But then there's the exceptional ones where they're There may be, I don't know, like 200 A-rank heroes who have these different capabilities, but S-rank, there might be just 10 in the world, right? And so when Mac was talking about this idea that AST could achieve S-rank in terms of a cult stock, and that's not to be confused with like something bad, but something that's like for Palantir or Tesla where the company has like this this halo effect where people want to own it. They believe in the mission and the company is doing extraordinary things and valuation isn't just predicated on the next 1, 2, 3 years, but it's like on the potential of what the company can do, right? So NASDAQ fits that in spades, right? Where you have this communications platform that is going to deliver commercial service, broadband data to To any 3G PPV device, whether that's a mobile phone, you know, a drone, a computer, car, any device that can work on a cellular network. But then you also have these use cases of, you know, on the military side, so sensing, radar, you know, PNT, position navigation timing, basically GPS backup. Um, electronic warfare. I mean, there's, so there's a whole host of capabilities that this constellation, uh, can offer. And there's, you know, there's applications that we haven't thought of yet. Right. And so that's when you, you know, it's like NVIDIA too, where it's like you, for the people who are, I guess, who, who can't think outside the box, they just see the applications that are right in front of their face, but then they can't extrapolate that and see. What else is out there that can grow the TAM, right? And so for that type of situation, I remember like back in gosh, what was it? 2020, 2021 when I was on ISS Discord and people were talking about Palantir and I like had no idea what Palantir was do like what what it meant like what is what is Palantir like I didn't understand the business model or what value they were adding and so I just. I was lazy. I just didn't do any work on it. But of course, like for the people that did, they were highly rewarded. And so, and for Tesla, like the bears have been like, oh, it's another auto company. It should be valued like Ford and GM. But it's like, no, they're not. They're doing, it's not just electric cars, but they're doing robotaxis, which is, you know, that's going to eat into Uber and Lyft and these other services. And then of course, like Today, you just had Musk say that they're going to stop production of the S and X Tesla vehicles, and they're going to allocate that production line to building the robots by the end of this year. Now, obviously, like, if that actually— when and if that actually happens, we'll see. But, you know, Tesla is much more than just cars. It's, you know, of course they're investing What is it, $2 billion into xAI? And so, and if you talk to like people who are really close to Tesla, there's all these other things that the company's doing that me, candidly, I don't follow Tesla that closely. Like I'm just not aware. And so, you know, for a layperson, they just think of Tesla as one particular thing and that's it. And similarly, that's true for AST where I think most people from the outside look in, they're like, oh, those guys are doing something with a mobile phone. And that's it. And it's like, no, there's actually these massive defense markets. And then you can think about AST as just this big communications platform that sits out in space. And then, and then you, you know, over the past, what is it, 2 months, like for people really digging it, it's like, okay, well, if you like data centers, then you're going to love AST. It's like, you know, the satellite can generate 120 kilowatts of power. It's got the phased array or the microns, which house the phased array on the bottom earth-facing side and solar panels on the outer-facing side. It has built-in heat dissipation, which is like one of the biggest issues for AI data centers. And of course, in each micron, you have FPGAs currently, but ASICs that are being integrated in the first quarter. Um, but then you could see, you know, NVIDIA GPUs or TPUs, you know, Tensor TPUs or other ASICs for data applications. And so this is the type of stuff where, um, the people who really understand the potential of the company and the IP that they've built, it goes beyond just communications. And the military has recognized this and they understand that. Um, and, you know, the company understands this too. It's like, okay, we're at 500,000 square feet of Production capacity or manufacturing floor space, we're looking for even more. And so we're going to be ramping from 6 satellites per month, which, you know, they haven't publicly acknowledged that, but of course in recent filings we know that they're already there. But then, you know, Scott has talked about getting that to 10 satellites to 12 satellites per month. So why do you need the extra satellites? Like, okay, you're going to pull forward the mid-band constellation, but there's also this idea of a government shell, which he's talked about. And so these are all little nuggets, right? And it helps the story move beyond just what the general public sees, right? And so that's where this whole idea of what What Mac was saying is that reaching S-class or S-rank, where it's— the company is not getting— it's going beyond just getting credit for the core business, but it's for the extra stuff that's going to happen, like these other markets, which eventually, quite candidly, like, could become bigger than the core market, right? It's like the Nvidia example of, oh, we're just like a niche GPU company for gamers, and then all of a sudden, A few years later, they are the heart and the core of the AI revolution. It's like Nvidia chips, right? Like, who would've thought? Like, if you'd asked somebody, I mean, Jensen Huang probably knew, but if you'd asked someone 15, 20 years ago, oh yeah, these graphic cards that you're using to play Civilization or Quake or Doom, like, it's actually those chips are going to be optimized to run inference and training and, you know, various AI applications. It's pretty, pretty crazy. So, so yeah, that when, when talking about AST Series Mobile, you know, I've seen like a few bear posts where people are like, oh, it's trading at so many multiples to $14 million of revenue, which they reported last quarter. It's like, who, who are you? Like what? Nobody who is a serious investor invests based off of historic results, right? Everyone's always looking to future results or future potential future results, meaning if a company's already established and maybe I'm looking at next year's revenue projections and earnings, or maybe 2 years out, or if it's for, let's take smart modular reactors or Quantum computers, like you're looking at these things more like biotech companies, right? Where you're looking at the TAM, you're seeing how much could they potentially capture in 4, 5, 6, 7, 10 years, and then discounting that back by some high discount rate. But that's how people invest, right? Like you are, if a company's got a lot of promise, but You know, for AST, for example, we've got Scotiabank who is the bear on the street who's projecting like $11 billion of free cash flow. I think, I mean, their numbers are, his numbers are kind of nuts. I think it's like by 2030 or 2031. Someone astutely pointed out that that would put AST in the top 10 of all public companies in terms of free cash flow generation. But that's what we're going for, right? For AST in particular, it's not just commercial markets, it's defense, it's first responder stuff, and then it's also these other applications that we haven't even thought about, right? Going back to the AI data center idea, that That in particular, like we're going to have all the satellite production capacity ramped up. And once the constellation is done, like, yeah, you're going to need to build a few satellites here and there for maintenance, but all that production and know-how and trained people and automation and patents and basically all the key building blocks of what you need to make a 5, 6-ton satellite that's going to do AI applications out in space, right? We're going to have it. And it's going to be there. And, you know, we have a partnership with Google currently, and Google is working, and this is not a knock on Planet. Great. Like, they're going to do, they're going to send up one NVIDIA GPU in probably like a Planet bus, and they're going to specialize it, that satellite too, so it can handle, you know, handle thermal load and dissipate the heat. And Do all that stuff to power it. But these are like tiny, tiny CubeSats, right? And so when it comes time to, once they figure out what they want to do, like who are they going to go to? Google does not make satellites and they could go to a Prime, they could go to a Lockheed Martin or one of these other guys and they're going to be like, oh yeah, man, we'll do that for you for cost plus. And, you know, we're going to, the way that we work, we'll deliver that satellite to you. In 1 to 2 years, and then maybe most likely that'll be like 3 to 4 years. And anytime you want to change, you have a change in the order, like you're going to have to pay us for it and it's going to take a lot of turnaround time versus like AST where it's a startup. You have that startup culture and a company like Google or Amazon or Blue Origin, um, Microsoft, whoever it is, they could come to the company and say, hey, I want to do this and I need your help. And the company will be like, hey, sure, like we've got capacity and we can do it. And I'm not sure what the business model would be if we would, it would be a one and done thing where we build that satellite for them or constellation and then we hand it over. Or we are actually, I mean, ideally you would, they pay you for it and then you would have some ongoing service revenues, which you probably, I mean, for those companies, you probably need an operator to, you know, for command and control and to manage constellation. Because, you know, you have to be pretty active in terms of collision avoidance and making sure that everything's running smoothly. Again, for these companies, like, they're not— that's not their bread and butter. So anyway, but yeah, I'm realizing that it's 12:07. I'm going to end it there. But yeah, I just wanted to get people together. I haven't talked about AST exclusively in quite some time, and so I wanted to do that, especially in light of us hitting this big milestone in terms of stock price. I do think that we are at this point where, yeah, you know, we're going to have drawdowns and maybe the stock goes back to $100 at some point. But it's not going back to 50. And so if you look at like the strength of it, I know Kook and Tut were like, oh, it seems very strong today. Why is that? I do think that there is more institutional buying. Obviously we've seen short interest come down quite a bit. And so we're kind of at the inflection point, like this is the year You've got tailwinds of the administration being focused on this. You've got Gold Dome, and then of course the company Calist on their own, right? The launching of satellites, the launch of commercial operations and service beta test, and then of course full commercial service. You also have any number of things, whether it's more definitive agreements. We just saw today—I'm sorry yesterday—Viasat got. $188 million Ex-Im loan from, or US, from, you know, US government Ex-Im loan to build one satellite. And so, you know, we do have our application for $500 million and I'm not sure if that's for, if that will be for satellites or it will be for manufacturing, but either way, like I think that's going to be, or that's probably somewhat ripe, like we should hear back on that. But yeah, there's a lot of catalysts that are coming. And so I think the strength in the stock is reflective of that. And there's people, you know, there was actually, there's one, I gotta look and see if I can find it, but there's one institutional investor that's on Twitter that writes quite a bit. And he had written, this is like back at $105 or $104 or something like that. And he had written that he had bought stock and someone was like, why'd you buy stock? And he's like, oh yeah, I VWAP'd stock over the day. And they're like, why'd you buy it? It's like at an all-time high. And his response is like, oh, it's interesting now. Like I gotta own it. And this is a concept, I'll end it with this. You know, I was talking to Cook about it this evening where when you, you know, the company is now, let me just look at this market cap. Company is now at $45 billion in market cap, and you have TMT investors who are waiting anxiously for the SpaceX IPO, and obviously they want a piece of Starlink. But there's this other company where, you know, is a technological leader and has this big opportunity, and it's a pure play way to play this particular market. It's going to be something that people will need to own, and if they miss it, they're going to be in big trouble, right? And so they're going to, and I think that's what we're seeing now where you're seeing pretty strong buying in the company, and that's only going to increase with FCC approval of the market application for the company. And then of course, as the constellation launches, I can't tell you like what it is specifically for each long only, but you know, let's say someone's waiting for Constellation to get to 20 or 25 and for initial commercial service to start. And so that's the day that they start pressing the buy button or maybe it's FCC application getting approved. And so there's all these things that are going to happen over the course of the year where you're going to have people coming in to buy the stock because as Someone who's focused on TMT or if you're tech or growth or whatever it is, right? Like this is a company you can't miss or you're going to look like a complete idiot, right? And so it's almost like, it's like we joke about schmuck insurance. It's like, oh, I need to own some part of this. And it's why like heading into the end of quarters, you'll see like some big winners spike even more because people don't want to Look like they missed it. They missed a name. And so into quarter-end buying, like some losers, by the way, will drop even more because people are like, I don't want this to be on my books and people to know like I lost money on this thing. And vice versa, like if there's big winners, they don't want to miss it. And so we're at this point where that's starting to happen and I think it'll continue to happen. So yeah, I'll end it with that. I mean, the next few months are going to be very interesting. As I said before, because of all these ingredients, you know, macro and company-specific, the stock has the potential to perform and/or outperform, you know, higher than even what you or I expect. And so I think that's potentially in the cards and it's what, you know, Kevin Mack was referring to where You have this, you know, the company elevates to this level that's special, that it does— it's not hindered by traditional valuation metrics. And people really are investing on the potential of the core business, but all these other things that the market is not seeing, but that you and I see. So anyway, I'll end it there. I'm going to try to go to bed. At a reasonable time, although there is, I am tempted to potentially go to bed late and see if I can, if I can replicate the, what happened yesterday. I am wearing the same clothes to go to bed, so maybe it'll happen. But anyway, thanks everyone for joining. And yeah, we'll see, we'll see what happens. I'm sure we'll catch up again when the next Catalyst drops. So thanks everyone for joining and have a good night. Bye.
[01:12:24] Speaker A: Thanks for listening to the AST SpaceMobile Podcast. If you enjoyed this episode and you'd like to help support the podcast, please share it with others, post about it on social media, or leave a rating and review. To catch all the latest news about AST SpaceMobile, make sure to subscribe. Thanks again, and I'll see you next time. We're doing something very, very big, and I think with this technology we can really affect a billion lives. AST SpaceMobile is the only company that has proven technology to deliver cellular broadband connectivity directly from space to the everyday smartphone. People will just basically turn on their phone and be seamless regardless of where you are. We don't want the user even to know that it's connected by satellite. role is to bring this into reality, always in partnership with the animals. Listen. Mmm, waffles.

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