Anpanman - The Defense Tell

[00:00:07] Speaker A: This is the AST SpaceMobile Podcast.
[00:00:10] Speaker B: It will just basically come to your phone and be seamless regardless of where you are. We don't want the user even to know that it's connected by satellite. Listen, the opportunity that we have is very, very, very large.
[00:00:27] Speaker C: Anyway, shifting over to ASD Space Mobile. So today, very interesting tweet went out, and I didn't really know about this until today, but Anduril is, they just released, I guess they bought this product that was originally developed by this other defense manufacturer called KLAS, K-L-A-S, but They released this warfighter communication device called Voyager G1. And this thing is, it provides tactical communications for ground troops, right? And what's interesting is that you wear it and it comes with a number of different communication alternatives, whether it's Wi-Fi, I think it does Ethernet, it does. And the thing that got me really interested is that it includes cellular.
[00:01:17] Speaker A: Right.
[00:01:18] Speaker C: Right? And it's very particular. It's not 5G yet, but it's 4G LTE cellular. And so as we all know, Palmer Luckey is an investor in AST SpaceMobile. He disclosed that, I guess it was like, is it a year ago or so in response to someone asking him about it? But you can see why he's invested in AST because the company's constellation and dual use is going to have a pretty tremendous impact on how Android products basically get connected to the network and how they communicate with one another. And so this product in particular, the Voyager G1, to me, when I saw it, I was like, oh my gosh, that was made for AST SpaceMobile. So as a reminder, I tweeted this out, like, this product is not connecting over MSS spectrum. So it's not Iridium, it's not Globalstar, It's not Starlink as far as we know. I'm not sure if Starshield can use cellular spectrum. Maybe it does, maybe it doesn't. But since it's classified, I don't think anyone knows. But we do know that AST SpaceMobile is working with SDA around the proliferated warfighter. And if you're going to have a communication device like this in a contested area, you're going to need— you're obviously not going to use the local wireless carriers. service, you're going to need connectivity from satellite that's secure, right? And so that means AST SpaceMobile, because the company can provide low-band cellular broadband connectivity, utilizing low-band cellular spectrum. And that— I still need to dig into this. There's not enough specs that are disclosed, but by saying cellular 4G connectivity, I would assume that that's low-band spectrum. But this Anduril device, when we have folks out in a contested environment, they're probably, my guess is like, on one hand, there will be some military device that can basically broadcast a small cellular network, which would connect all the warfighters. But then also for redundancy or primary use, you would have connectivity via satellite. And so there's only one satellite provider that does low-band cellular broadband connectivity, and that's AST. And so yeah, I don't think you can be bullish enough. The fact that, yeah, this product coming out from Anduril, and I assume other products as well that will be coming out, will be leveraging the SDA's new constellation, which AST is part of. Um, and, you know, going back to the whole dual use case of not only commercial use but military use, um, this is a big tell, right? Like, this is where the future is going, and AST is a big part of it. And, um, Palmer Luckey is an investor, and there's a reason why he's an investor, because he sees where the puck is going and he's going there too. Um, let's see, the, the other thing I wanted to talk about, which I discussed last night on the Space Stock Weekly, um, And today, you know, I think we were expecting a different interview from Jeff Bezos, but it seems like the interviewer was solely focused on class equality, but not really about space. Maybe, you know, I guess the one takeaway from Bezos is that there is going to be a big push and there's interest for them to do AI data centers in space. And then I think, you know, Amazon, And Blue Origin are going to have 3 constellations. One's Amazon LEO, which provides fixed wireless to your home. There is also TerraWave, which is going to be high-speed enterprise-class connectivity to data centers. And then I forgot the third one that he talked about. However, he did not discuss direct-to-device or direct-to-cell. And so obviously Amazon did the Globalstar deal. They're probably still figuring it out. Maybe they just bought it for cheap spectrum, but, um, he didn't cover that. And so, but I think what, what some folks were hoping for was some update from the FAA, um, which I think, by the way, like, I think we're pretty close to getting approval, um, to— we meaning Blue Origin, uh, is going to fly New Glenn again. Um, because I, I understand, I think, you know, the, their folks there are lining up for a potential static fire of New Glenn 4. maybe as soon as next week. And so, um, the FAA investigation feels like it's going to wrap up very soon, right? And we've got that signal, that type of signal from, uh, the management of AST, but also, um, from folks at Blue Origin. And, um, you know, from what we understand based off our due diligence, the, the, the issue that caused the second stage to not initiate a second burn, uh, for that— I guess it was one of the 2 BE-3 engines. Uh, was something very simple that should have been caught for— in, in terms of quality assurance, uh, before the flight, but they didn't. Uh, but they know exactly what the problem is. It's not a design issue, uh, but it's something that was, that was easily, uh, catchable and should have been, you know, fixed, but they, they didn't. Uh, or not even fixed, it's just it was almost like a process step and they didn't do it. So, um, so I think the FAA is going to clear New Glenn any day now. It could be today, it could be tomorrow. Uh, it could be over the weekend, but, um, expect that soon. Um, but aside from that, um, yeah, I think, uh, I think like everyone, we're all waiting to see what the SpaceX, uh, S1 looks like and if there's any interesting— which I'm sure there'll be like some interesting nuggets that come out of that. But, um, but yeah, lots of things going on. Um, and maybe I'll just end the space there. If you have questions or comments, feel free to drop them in here. I'll try to answer them. Um, what's the maximum stacking we can get on one rocket? If it's 8 and our cadence stays on track, we can hit 2x launches a month next year. We could be looking nearly all the sats in the air by the end of next year, um, correct? Uh, no, that's incorrect. We actually will get all the satellites, uh, in place a lot sooner than that, right? So, um, if the company can get to your production cadence of at least 6 a month, and then that inches up to 8, 10, 12 eventually, which the company's talked about. Um, you know, in some respects, like, there could be— after you get the initial 100 up, um, they might have to slow down a little bit. Um, but, but, you know, we, we do have— so Blue Origin, the maximum, um, New Glenn, the maximum stack, uh, that you can launch on that, that rocket is 8. And then if you— if they move to, um, the 9x4 which is the upgrade of New Glenn, then you're probably looking at instead of 8 satellites, probably 12, like a dozen. But with Falcon 9, that's 3. With ISRO, that's 2 composite Bluebirds. With the new launch provider, ULA Centaur Vulcan, that is, or Vulcan Centaur, that is, I think it's like up to 5 if it's in the maximum heavy configuration, which by the way, is pretty impressive. I didn't, I didn't realize how powerful ULA's Centaur Vulcan was, Vulcan Centaur, but with 6 solid rocket boosters, that thing can carry 5 composite Bluebirds, which is, you know, basically the equivalent of Falcon Heavy. But then let's see. So Ariane 6, I think in the most heavy configuration can do 5. And then Mitsubishi Heavy, which the company is talking to, I think they're talking to Ariane as well. Mitsubishi Heavy, I think can do 3. But obviously they've got to work out some kinks there because they, the last launch unfortunately had an anomaly and didn't get to orbit. So, but yeah, I think if you can get to 6 to 10 production per month, you can get to, yeah, nearly 100. I mean, you just do the math, but they'll be able to get there by mid-year if they're really cooking mid to, let's say third quarter. What Scott did mention though is that I think by Q1 of 2026, they'll probably start— we might see the first mid-band Bluebird roll off the production line and/or potentially being launched maybe Q2. So if they say Q1, probably Q2. But that constellation, they'll probably start shifting some amount of production to that constellation to really start lighting up the Ligado spectrum. And any other S-band spectrum that they're able to get globally. But yeah, the bull case is that, you know, you get to 45, 60 by probably, probably, or 60, let's say 60, you probably get to that by Q2, around sometime in Q2. And then the full 100, you could get to late Q3, early Q4. So actually, maybe you're, maybe you're, you're, you're quite, your timing is right. Let's see here. All right. Well, I think oh someone's saying when a thousand dollars a share need an exact date. I don't know exact date for a thousand dollars a share. Is it in the cards? Is it possible? You know it. I'll go back. There's this guy Pierre Leonet. I think he's based out of France or something, but he's he's like one of these. Legacy space consultant. I think he's actually an economist, but he does consulting as well. And I remember I had tweeted about Morgan Stanley back in 2021 did this report on space and it was Adam Jonas who is, I know Kook loves Adam Jonas, but he's kind of ahead of the curve in these new industries. He was a big Tesla bull and so he was a big space bull. back in 2021. And he put out this report on SpaceX. And this is like where, by the way, we got the idea that Starlink made up a majority of the economics, right? So 65, 70, today it's, I think it's closer to 75% of the revenue and profit contribution. Actually, the profit contribution is higher than that. I think it's more like 80% for SpaceX. And so When I put out that report from Morgan Stanley, he retweeted it, or someone else had put it out. He retweeted it and basically went point by point why a $100 billion valuation back then didn't make sense and that SpaceX would never get there. And so this is important. Like, you know, this guy's, he's, you know, people listen to him and he's a respected individual, or was similar to, you know, Tim Ferriss. I actually, I take that back. Tim Ferriss was never respected, but You know, back then, 2021, it didn't seem plausible, right? Like $100 billion. What are you talking about? There's no way SpaceX is worth that much. Now, you know, we're about, we're on the cusp of it. 3, 2, depending on which prediction market, $2 to $3 trillion IPO. Obviously they glommed on XAI, which I would argue is probably a, carries a negative value relative to SpaceX, at least today. And here's a prediction for you. I predict in the next 3 to 4 years, there will be a spinoff of XAI and X from SpaceX because it will be You know, once that entity eventually hopefully gets, you know, to a point of financial independence, like it's generating some level of profitability, it doesn't make sense to stick with SpaceX. I think they'll spin it off. But anyway, but I pointed out because, and I tweeted kind of taking a jab at this guy, that these experts who are like, well, $100 billion, like doesn't make sense, which back then, by the way, that was a big number. Like I remember looking at the report, I was like, holy smokes, SpaceX is worth a lot. And so if If SpaceX is worth $100 billion and Starlink is worth $65 of that or $70, then man, AST SpaceMobile at $800 million, it seems cheap, which it was. Fast forward to today, SpaceX, all the guys who are poo-pooing that, the whole idea of that. Now SpaceX is worth $2 to $3 billion and AST SpaceMobile is now at $30 billion. So when people say, when $1,000 a share, We can all laugh, but it's possible. It's absolutely possible, right? Like, I don't know exactly when, but given how massive the commercial markets are, and it's not just about connectivity to the phone, but it's also Internet of Things devices, autonomous cars, trucks, drones, just everything is going to be connected and we'll need connectivity, especially in areas where there is no connectivity, then there's going to be a tremendous amount of demand for for this service. And then on top of that, you've got the defense use cases, right? And so forget about connectivity. Yeah, you can connect warfighters and military assets, but then let's talk about radar, early detection. There's a whole host of electronic warfare jamming. There's a lot of things that you can do with 60 to 100 of the largest phased arrays floating out in space in low Earth orbit. So So yeah, I— is $1,000 possible? Absolutely. Uh, when? Um, that I don't know.
[00:14:29] Speaker A: I, I—
[00:14:30] Speaker C: if I knew, um, if I knew, I would definitely share with everybody. I would be very happy myself. But is that going to happen in 2 years or 3 years? Um, yeah, I think so. I think that's pretty reasonable. I mean, look at SpaceX. Um, Morgan Stanley 2021, $100 billion valuation. Everyone was kind of poo-pooing that, and now what is that? Like, at— that's a 30x at $3 trillion. Uh, yeah, so it's certainly possible. So with that, I'll end it. Um, thanks everyone for joining, and, um, I'm sure I'll fire up another space soon. But, um, but yeah, those are my midday thoughts on T1 Energy and, uh, AST SpaceMobile. Take care.
[00:15:08] Speaker A: Thanks for listening to Welcome back to the AST SpaceMobile Podcast. If you enjoyed this episode and you'd like to help support the podcast, please share it with others, post about it on social media, or leave a rating and review. To catch all the latest news about AST SpaceMobile, make sure to subscribe. Thanks again, and I'll see you next time.
[00:15:36] Speaker B: We're doing something very, very big, and I think with this technology we can really really affect a billion lives. Space2Space Mobile is the only company that has proven technology to deliver cellular mobile connectivity directly from space to the everyday smartphone. People will just basically turn on their phone and be seamless. Regardless of where you are, we don't want the user even to know that it's connected by satellite. Our role is to bring this into reality, always in partnership Feed the animals.
[00:16:13] Speaker A: Listen.
[00:16:21] Speaker B: Mmm, waffles.