Episode
AST SpaceMobile: SpaceX Just Handed Us T-Mobile
This episode of the AST SpaceMobile Podcast features host Anpanman recording solo from an airport after the Space Mob investor meetup in Titusville, where 35-40 Space Mob members gathered to watch the Bluebird 11, 12, and 13 launch. He recaps the mission, previews Monday's Q2 2026 earnings call, and breaks down SpaceX's newly public direct-to-cell ambitions.
Anpanman argues SpaceX's stated plan to build its own terrestrial small-cell network and compete directly with AT&T, Verizon, and T-Mobile makes AST SpaceMobile more valuable to every mobile network operator globally, not less. He says T-Mobile's Starlink exclusivity has become untenable and predicts an eventual AST relationship, while cautioning that any T-Mobile deal or the AT&T/Verizon/T-Mobile joint venture will still take time to formalize.
He also covers recent spectrum wins in Brazil, Kenya, and expected wins in Europe, along with regulatory risk facing the pending EchoStar-SpaceX transaction given SpaceX's newly explicit competitive stance toward MNOs. He revisits Verizon's 2024 deal as the historic stock unlock and draws a parallel for what a T-Mobile relationship could do next.
Anpanman's headline conclusion is that SpaceX's aggressive posture toward carriers, far from threatening AST, hands it a stronger hand with every MNO worldwide, and he urges shareholders to stay unleveraged and patient ahead of the earnings call and further catalysts.
Key Takeaways
- Anpanman attended the Space Mob investor meetup in Titusville the night of the Bluebird 11, 12, and 13 launch, estimating 35-40 attendees, roughly double the turnout at the prior Bluebird 8, 9, and 10 meetup.
- AST SpaceMobile's Q2 2026 earnings call is scheduled for the Monday following this episode (August 10, 2026); Anpanman plans to ask or submit a question about how SpaceX's new direct-to-cell push changes AST's competitive positioning.
- Satellites 14, 15, and 16 are close to shipping, and Anpanman speculates a launch could occur as early as September 2026 given SpaceX's roughly 30-day turnaround between launches from SLC-40.
- AST confirmed it established communications and nominal control with Bluebird 11, 12, and 13 after launch; Anpanman expects their antenna unfolding within about 30 days, faster than Bluebird 6's 49 days and Bluebird 8/9/10's 28, 33, and 34 days.
- SpaceX publicly stated ambitions to build a terrestrial direct-to-cell network of small cells and a new Starlink terminal to compete directly with mobile carriers, with Elon Musk saying he expects a majority of internet traffic to eventually move over Starlink's satellites.
- Anpanman believes T-Mobile's exclusivity arrangement with Starlink has become commercially untenable now that SpaceX has declared intent to compete with carriers, and expects T-Mobile to seek an early exit; SpaceX's own prospectus reportedly allows MNOs to terminate these relationships without penalty within a 3-to-5-year window.
- Anpanman frames Verizon's 2024 decision to partner with AST over Starlink as the company's historic stock unlock, citing AST's roughly $800 million market cap and $100 million of cash before that deal, and the stock's move from about $2 to $5 after AT&T and from $5 to $10 (later reaching $39) after Verizon.
- AST has recently received a 10x10 MHz spectrum allocation from Brazil's Anatel and approval to use over 20x20 MHz of 700 MHz spectrum with Kenya's Safaricom; Anpanman expects Europe to grant a similar 10x10 MHz allocation.
- Anpanman sees regulatory risk for the pending EchoStar-SpaceX spectrum transaction, noting EchoStar and Viasat's European S-band licenses face a 'jump ball' reallocation in early 2027 and that SpaceX's stated intent to compete with MNOs could complicate international approval.
- Anpanman is skeptical Starlink can meaningfully compete with mobile carriers in dense areas, pointing to Charlie Ergen's roughly $8-9 billion failed terrestrial wireless buildout at Dish and past failed cable-company Wi-Fi hotspot efforts as cautionary precedent.
- The joint venture between AT&T, Verizon, and T-Mobile, plus the AST-Rakuten J-LEO partnership, will both take additional time to reach definitive agreements, though Anpanman speculates SpaceX's aggressive public statements could accelerate the timeline.
- Anpanman does not expect any pre-earnings press releases, T-Mobile news, or Meta partnership details to be disclosed before Monday's call, and encourages shareholders to submit their own questions on Meta talks.
- Anpanman closes by urging shareholders to stay unleveraged, avoid margin and derivatives, and hold shares through upcoming catalysts, comparing the current moment to owning Apple stock right before an iPhone announcement.
Detailed Discussion16 topics
Titusville launch meetup recap
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Anpanman is recording from the airport after attending the Space Mob investor meetup at the Space Bar in the Courtyard Marriott in Titusville, held the night of the Bluebird 11, 12, and 13 launch; he estimates 35 to 40 Space Mob members attended, which those who attended both events said seemed like roughly double the turnout at the prior Bluebird 8, 9, and 10 meetup.
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He says he preferred the more intimate ~30-person gathering over larger events because it allowed him to meet everyone and have good discussions, though he expects future company-sponsored launch events to be larger.
Next launch timing and earnings call preview
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Satellites 14, 15, and 16 are pretty close to shipping; Anpanman notes SpaceX's turnaround between launches from SLC-40 is roughly 30 days, and speculates there could be enough of a gap to fit in a September 2026 launch.
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AST SpaceMobile's earnings call is scheduled for the coming Monday; Anpanman plans to submit or hopes an analyst asks how the changing competitive landscape, especially SpaceX going directly after MNOs, changes AST's positioning, though he expects the company to be reserved in its response.
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He does not expect any pre-earnings press releases or T-Mobile news before Monday's call, saying big strategic developments like a T-Mobile relationship will take time and should not be bet on in the near term.
Launch mission recap and satellite status
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The Bluebird 11, 12, 13 mission on Falcon 9 was flawless; the company used computer-generated separation graphics (rather than camera footage) because the payload adapter's cone shape blocks the second stage's cameras from showing satellite release, which drew some light criticism for a graphical error showing the rocket turning that never actually happened.
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The company confirmed it established communications with the three satellites and achieved nominal control after detumbling; Anpanman expects antenna unfolding in roughly 30 days, noting Bluebird 6 took about 49 days to unfold versus 28, 33, and 34 days for Bluebirds 8, 9, and 10, so he guesses these three might unfold in something like 26-28 days as the company's process improves.
Free merch bags for launch attendees
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As with the Bluebird 8, 9, 10 launch, the company emailed codes to retail investors who previously attended launches, redeemable for free merch bags containing a mission-patch bag, a 2XL t-shirt, a sticker, and a magnetic metal pin; Anpanman ordered three (the maximum allowed) and plans to bring extras to the next launch for attendees.
SpaceX's direct-to-cell announcement
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Overnight, major outlets including Dow Jones and Bloomberg picked up news of SpaceX's direct-to-cell ambitions; Anpanman says Elon Musk stated he expects a majority of internet traffic to move over Starlink's satellites in coming years, which he calls a bold, aggressive claim toward MNOs SpaceX works with or has considered working with.
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Anpanman plans to listen to Deutsche Telekom's earnings call the next morning, expecting analysts to ask about the strategic implications of Starlink potentially competing with its T-Mobile subsidiary and its European business.
T-Mobile exclusivity and potential exit
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T-Mobile told The Verge it has some exclusivity remaining with Starlink, but per SpaceX's prospectus, MNO relationships (roughly 3 to 5 years) can reportedly be terminated by the MNO without penalty; Anpanman believes T-Mobile will likely exit the relationship sooner rather than later once it makes business sense.
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He argues that continuing to actively market T-Satellite each day only provides free marketing and awareness for a company (SpaceX) that is becoming T-Mobile's direct competitor.
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Timing for any T-Mobile-AST partnership (MOU then definitive agreement) will take time, partly because the AT&T/Verizon/T-Mobile joint venture structure means AT&T effectively has final say on whether AST can work with T-Mobile, though this would be enabled under the joint venture.
Why AST staying out of the media narrative helps
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Anpanman initially thought it was unfortunate AST wasn't mentioned in coverage of SpaceX's carrier ambitions, but concluded it's actually beneficial: MNO executives don't want to feel pressured or told what to do, so it's better that the media and SpaceX frame the competitive threat while AST is not positioned as an obvious 'saving grace,' letting MNOs reach that conclusion themselves.
Verizon as the original stock unlock
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Anpanman recalls that in early 2024 AST's US business was just AT&T, with a market cap around $800 million and only about $100 million of cash left in the bank; he says building a satellite constellation with that little capital would have been almost impossible without MNO funding.
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He says Verizon's decision to partner with AST over Starlink (after evaluating both) gave AST two-thirds of the US market and, just as importantly, served as major market validation; the stock moved from about $2 to $5 after AT&T's commercial agreement, then from $5 to $10 and eventually as high as $39 after the Verizon deal, before pulling back.
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Anpanman says a Michael Pollack presentation (later taken down) indicated that after Verizon's investment, the Department of Defense, SDA, and DIU all began reaching out to AST, reasoning that if both AT&T and Verizon were on board, the technology must be real and viable.
SpaceX crossing the Rubicon with MNOs
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Anpanman argues SpaceX's public comments mean it has 'crossed the Rubicon' — by openly stating it will build its own terrestrial network of small cells and a new Starlink terminal to get customers to act as cell repeaters and compete with carriers, SpaceX has foreclosed future MNO partnerships, making it easier for AST to have MNO conversations since operators globally now see a clear need for a strategic counter-partner.
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He contrasts AST's pitch (partnering with local MNOs, offering a 'kill switch' for sovereign control, and keeping data in-country) against what he characterizes as SpaceX's approach of building a colossal global network that extracts value and market share from local incumbents, which he says regulators will resist.
Spectrum wins in Brazil, Europe, and Kenya
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Brazil's Anatel gave AST a 10x10 MHz spectrum allocation; Anpanman believes Europe will make a similar 10x10 MHz allocation, and says AST just received approval to work with Kenya's Safaricom on over 20x20 MHz of 700 MHz spectrum.
Regulatory risk for the EchoStar-SpaceX deal
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The EchoStar-SpaceX transaction has not yet closed and still requires international regulatory approval; Anpanman says SpaceX's aggressive Q&A comments about competing with MNOs could jeopardize that approval, joking that Charlie Ergen 'might be sweating bullets' if the deal gets held up.
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In Europe, EchoStar and Viasat together hold a majority of S-band licenses, which face a 'jump ball' reallocation in early 2027; Anpanman speculates AST and Europe's IRIS will get a slug of that spectrum, while it's unclear whether EchoStar and Viasat will be reallocated any, especially given SpaceX's stated intent to compete with European MNOs.
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He notes FCC Chairman Brendan Carr previously told Ergen he had not met build-out requirements on certain licenses and would need to sell or lose them, illustrating that regulators can revoke underutilized spectrum rights.
Can Starlink really compete with MNOs?
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Anpanman argues that to truly compete with MNOs, Starlink would need low-band spectrum, tower infrastructure, and new terminals capable of acting as small cells, plus customer incentives to buy and use that equipment — describing Bernstein's view of AWS-3 deployment as more of a 'low-end quality of service' offering rather than full MNO competition.
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He cites Charlie Ergen's Dish Network, which spent roughly $8-9 billion (beyond spectrum costs alone) trying to build a terrestrial wireless network using state-of-the-art technology and still failed, as a cautionary precedent for how difficult and costly this is.
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He recalls a cable company's past effort (referred to ambiguously in the recording) to deploy citywide Wi-Fi hotspots in New York as an MVNO fallback strategy, saying the hotspots ultimately 'didn't work that well' outside their immediate coverage radius.
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Responding to a point attributed to 'Mach33' that most data traffic occurs on Wi-Fi, Anpanman agrees but argues consumers pay a premium for mobile connectivity specifically for areas with no alternative coverage (dead spots, one-bar areas), which is where Starlink could have an initial edge over MNOs in coverage but would still need to build out expensive terrestrial infrastructure to compete in dense areas.
What T-Mobile could mean for ASTS upside
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Anpanman frames the key open question as: if Verizon's 2024 decision was the unlock that took AST to the next level, what would a T-Mobile relationship do, given it would mean AST is important to all three of the largest and most profitable US carriers rather than just one.
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He notes most TMT investors either don't know what AST SpaceMobile is or dismiss it as unable to compete with Starlink, forgetting that MNOs are the industry's gatekeepers.
J-LEO, Rakuten, and telco joint venture patience
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Anpanman cautions that the AST-Rakuten J-LEO joint venture is happening but will take time to finalize, and asks listeners to be patient while more details emerge through regulators and eventual Rakuten statements.
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He relays that the AT&T/Verizon/T-Mobile telco joint venture's CEO said the venture 'feels good' about its progress and that a deal is 'coming soon,' but Anpanman expects reaching a definitive agreement to still take time given its complexity; he speculates SpaceX's aggressive public statements could cut that timeline roughly in half by increasing urgency in MNO boardrooms.
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He predicts a future Harvard Business School case study on what he calls one of the biggest strategic blunders of all time: former T-Mobile CEO Mike Sievert's decision to partner with SpaceX/Starlink, noting most executives who made that decision are no longer at T-Mobile or Deutsche Telekom.
Community Q&A
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Asked whether the company would release PRs before earnings, Anpanman said he doubts it since earnings are Monday and the company will likely hold news; he also does not expect T-Mobile news to come soon.
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Asked how many Falcon 9 launches are scheduled, Anpanman said AST has a handful scheduled and has bought more, and can potentially take other constellations' launch slots if those other operators are not ready on time, meaning some AST launches could come on short notice in the coming months.
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Asked whether Scott (Wisniewski) would provide color on reported Meta talks during the earnings call, Anpanman said he doesn't believe so, but encouraged shareholders to submit their own questions to the company about the status and impact of any Meta discussions.
Closing thoughts: stay unleveraged
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Anpanman says he personally bought more ASTS shares that morning and the prior day, is not on margin, and urges other shareholders to avoid margin and derivatives so a forced decision doesn't occur right before major catalysts.
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He compares the current moment to a shareholder selling Apple stock right before an iPhone announcement due to unrelated volatility, urging investors to just hold shares and trust the process through the earnings call and beyond.
Watch Items4
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AST SpaceMobile Q2 2026 earnings call
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Possible next AST launch (satellites 14, 15, 16)
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Antenna unfolding of Bluebird 11, 12, and 13
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Deutsche Telekom earnings call, expected to address SpaceX/Starlink competitive threat to T-Mobile and its European business
Open Questions4
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Will T-Mobile move to exit its Starlink exclusivity early now that SpaceX has publicly declared intent to compete with carriers, and how soon could a T-Mobile-AST relationship materialize?
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Given SpaceX's newly explicit competitive stance toward MNOs, will international regulators approve the pending EchoStar-SpaceX spectrum transaction, and will EchoStar and Viasat retain their European S-band licenses in the early-2027 reallocation?
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How quickly can the AT&T/Verizon/T-Mobile joint venture and the AST-Rakuten J-LEO partnership reach definitive agreements, and will SpaceX's aggressive statements accelerate those timelines?
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Will AST SpaceMobile provide any update on reported Meta talks during Monday's earnings call?
Raw Transcript
Show full transcript
[00:00:03] Speaker A: Everyone, thanks for joining. I'm at the airport waiting for my flight back. I was fortunate to catch a ride with Annie Sinitin. And yeah, I'm very tired but excited for the future. And just wanted to do a space and recap a few things and share some thoughts as well. Apologies for all the noise, given that— [00:00:25] Speaker B: I'm sorry. [00:00:25] Speaker A: I'm at the airport here, but first I want to say it was great seeing everyone. I think we actually had more people at this event than the previous one. So it was our estimation that there was probably 35 to 40 Space Mob members there. I believe that seems like maybe double what was at 8, 9, 10. I wasn't— sorry. Yeah, I wasn't at 8, 9, 10, but for the people that attended both, they said it seemed like there was more. [00:00:52] Speaker B: Yeah. [00:00:53] Speaker A: But yeah, it was great meeting all the new people and sharing stories. It never gets old to hear how people have, you know, their story about how they learned about AST SpaceMobile and invested, and also just hearing people's backgrounds and how investing has changed their lives. And so it's always great to meet folks from all walks of life and to have this one thing in common that, you know, you know, this common experience and passion that draws everyone together. So it was a great event last night and it was the same, you know, excitement and anxiety and fear and elation to see the rocket go up with our 3 satellites and something else when you do that with a bunch of friends. But yeah, so we had this event at the Space Bar over here in Titusville, the Courtyard Marriott. And hopefully we'll get to see another one relatively soon, perhaps as early as September. But as someone noted the other day, SLC-40, the time between SpaceX launches, I think is like 30 days. And so there's quite a bit of time where perhaps another launch could get slotted in there. And as we know, 14, 15, and 16 are pretty close to shipping. And so we might actually see a September launch. which would be great. But perhaps we'll learn more on the earnings call, which is this coming Monday, and there's obviously a lot for the company to talk about. I'm hoping that a research analyst, or I might submit a question about how the changing landscape, especially with SpaceX going directly after UMNOS, how that changes the company's positioning, which I'm sure the company will be very They'll be reserved in how they respond to that, but maybe we'll get some nuggets. We'll see. But yeah, the mission overall was flawless, as we all expect from SpaceX, and Falcon 9 has been a tremendous launch vehicle for the entire industry. And everything went off without a hitch. I know some people criticized or were joking about the computer graphics of the separation of the satellites. And the reason why they did that is because the payload adapter is kind of this upside-down cone. And so you actually— the cameras that are on the second stage are blocked by that payload adapter. So you can't actually see anything get released. And so the company decided to display that graphically. And some people were criticizing the graphics, which, candidly, I don't want the company spending money on separation graphics. If they can just show me that things have happened or tell us, that's fine. Although we were joking around how the graphics turned. And so the rocket was going to the right on the screen and it was going up and it was going left. And we were amongst Space Mob, we were joking that perhaps there's maybe some non-space investors who saw that and maybe were wondering how they turned the rocket around. But— Yeah. That was just a graphic. They didn't turn the rocket around. But, but yeah, so, so the mission went flawlessly. And, and later the company tweeted that they, they established communications with the satellites and have nominal control. And so after detumbling, the next thing to look out for for these 3 satellites are unfolding. And you can expect that in approximately 30 days. And so I believe Bluebird 6 That took about 49 days, so maybe it's 46 days, whereas 8, 9, and 10 took 28, 33, and 34 days from launch. And so I would expect the unfolding of these 3 to improve on that. And so maybe we'll see unfolding happen in 28, 27 days' time, 26 days' time, and we'll see. But as a company, learns and improves the process, we should see improvements there. So looking forward to that. I did want to give a shout out to the company. They, similarly to 8, 9, and 10, they sent emails out to people, retail investors who had previously attended other launches. You have this ability to redeem a code for free merch bags, and they did this for 8, 9, and 10, and they did it again for 11, 12, and 13. So There's a bag that has the mission patch on it, and then you actually get a t-shirt, which is a 2XL, which is kind of funny because, I mean, there are some people who require 2XL. I certainly don't need one, so I've been giving my shirts away. But I did order 3 of these because you're allowed to order up to 3, and I actually gave away 2 of the previous mission— the previous launch bags to folks who came to the launch. this past weekend. And so I ordered extra ones, they're free. And for the next launch, for anybody who is interested, I'll bring those bags and give them to you. So they include a shirt, a mission patch, a sticker, and also a metal pin that has a magnetic back. So you can put it on a backpack or wear it on a suit or whatever. But yeah, that's a nice touch from the company. I think they'll probably continue to do that. My guess is the next launch, since it'll be post-earnings, if it is in September or perhaps early October, that my guess would be a company-sponsored event. So looking forward to that. But I will say the having an intimate gathering, more intimate gathering versus, you know, hundreds of people, just having 30 was really great because I got to meet everybody and got to you know, have good discussions, whereas I think sometimes it's a bit overwhelming when it's a lot of people. It doesn't feel as intimate, but I am looking forward to company events because those are pretty cool. Yeah, so the other thing I wanted to touch on is SpaceX. And so overnight, it looks like the media has picked up the news properly. Whether it's Dow Jones or Bloomberg. And so this is pretty big. I think one of the things that I'm going to listen to, and I encourage everybody else to as well, is Deutsche Telekom has their earnings tomorrow morning. And so I'm almost certain they'll get asked questions about their view, what the strategic implications are about Starlink going after their subsidiary T-Mobile's business, but also their business in Europe. And I think, you know, Elon kind of took the gloves off and said that he expects a majority of internet traffic to go over their satellites in the coming years, which is a pretty bold claim, right? And so if you're an MNO who's working with SpaceX or considering or had considered, that's a pretty big shot across the bow, right? Because— [00:08:05] Speaker B: Yeah. [00:08:07] Speaker A: are you enabling your future competitor? Which, you know, I think it's— if I was T-Mobile and they were— I think it was The Verge had asked them for comment and they pointed to their earnings call or their spokesperson did that. But if I was T-Mobile, I would be trying to shut down the relationship, or at least at a minimum, not actively marketing T-Satellite, because every day that you're doing that, you're just enabling your competitors strengthened. And so I think that relationship has become pretty untenable. And the company did— T-Mobile did say that there is some exclusivity left on that. However, as we know in SpaceX's prospectus, all of these MNO relationships that they currently have in place are anywhere between, I think it's 3 to 5 years. However, they can be terminated without penalty. by the MNOs. And so I would expect T-Mobile, probably to the extent it makes business sense, will do that sooner rather than later. And then when, you know, a timing— there's timing for a potential partnership or MOU and then eventual definitive agreement with AST. That's going to take some time because I think the joint venture between AT&T, Verizon, T-Mobile, and Islands get things first and then AT&T essentially has the final say as to whether AST can work with T-Mobile, which clearly they will be able to do so under the joint venture. But we'll see. But I think taking a step back, yeah, so one of my initial inclinations when reading some of these articles is like, oh, well, it's kind of sad that AST is not mentioned, but I thought about it a bit more and it's actually good that way, right? Because the articles are obviously pretty negative for the M&Os, and the last thing you want is for the M&Os, the executives to feel like they're being pressured into something. And so it's good the way that these articles are being positioned that Starlink is coming after their businesses and they're exposed, right? What you didn't— what you don't want is for some of these journals to say, well, AST could be their saving grace or their strategic counter. Oftentimes, and I know for executives, like, they don't want to be told what to do or being— they don't want to be forced into something. They want to feel like they're in control and they make the decisions. And so clearly, I mean, It's night and day. AST is the strategic counter. They don't need the media to tell them. So I think it's actually good that AST is being kept out of that narrative. Essentially, the media and Starlink are doing the work for them, right? And so if the MNOs clearly— they see they have a strategic gap and they need to fill it, and it's going to be AST. And so they don't need to remind you of that. But, but yeah, taking a step back, I mean, what a time to be alive, right? This is unimaginable. I mean, thinking about strategic positioning, if you think about where we were at the beginning of 2024 and where we are now, I mean, it's just, yeah, it's unimaginable, right? Because back then we only had, you know, we had Google, of course, and we had AT&T and Vodafone and Rakuten. But speaking specifically about the US market, it was just AT&T. [00:11:38] Speaker B: Right. [00:11:39] Speaker A: And even though we had raised money from those companies, the market cap was like $800 million. I think we had $100 million of cash left in the bank. I mean, it was, it was pretty lean times, right? Because people just didn't believe in the story. And I think it's a big testament to management where, yes, space is hard and things have taken longer than expected. However, just think if you were trying to put up a constellation and build satellites and you had a market cap of only $800 million, and $100 million in cash in the bank, like, that's almost impossible, right? You would have had to rely on M&O funding and other sources to get there, right? But after signing AT&T, the massive unlock, which, you know, I thought about this morning, and it's always good to remind yourself, was Verizon. Because what Verizon did is it brought— it gave AST 2/3 of the market in the US. But just as importantly, it was a significant form of validation. So for those that remember, Verizon had evaluated Starlink back then and AST, and they decided to go with AST. And so they told the market, hey, this is who we think is going to win and is a better fit for us. And so then the stock rerated and the company was given the ability to then go fund development and launch of Constellation. So the stock went from, at that time, from $2 to $5 where AT&T signed the commercial agreement. And then with Verizon, it went from $5 to $10 and just kept going up until what, $39, and then pulled back. But Verizon was the ultimate unlock. And we know that because Michael Pollack told us in one of his presentations, which then subsequently got taken down, After Verizon signed a deal with AST and made its strategic investment, that's when the Department of Defense, the SDA, DIU, everybody started calling AST back and they became interested because it's like, wow, not only is AT&T working with these guys, Verizon's working with them. And they're not only— is the technology real, it's going to be viable, right? Because they've got backing. And so similarly, If Verizon, the unlock, did that, then what will T-Mobile do? And so that's, to me, that's the most interesting question right now where obviously the market's not assigning much of a probability to it. A bunch of yahoos, retail investors on the internet believe that AST is going to get T-Mobile, but for a vast majority of TMT investors, no one has either any idea of what AST SpaceMobile is or if it's serious or they dismiss it. [00:14:18] Speaker B: Right. [00:14:18] Speaker A: They just say, well, they're competing against Starlink, so there's no way they're going to win. However, people forget about the structure of the market, right? Where the MNOs are pretty much the gatekeepers, right? And so if you think about what SpaceX did to— and the dynamic here is that if there was any inkling that SpaceX was going to work with T-Mobile, they wouldn't have said what they said yesterday. But we're now kind of past the point, right? We've crossed the Rubicon where They're like, okay, well, we're not going to be working with AT&T, we're not going to be working with Verizon and not with T-Mobile. So I guess we should just be honest with the market. And they were brutally honest yesterday. They just said, well, we're going to build a terrestrial network, we're going to do a patchwork of small cells, and we're going to come out with a new Starlink terminal and hopefully get customers to opt into becoming cell repeaters. And we're going to go compete. And so what that does is it makes it pretty clear, but it also, for the regulators, because then if you're the FCC, you're going to support Starlink and their ambitions. And so you're going to be pretty easy because you obviously want a 4th player to enter the market. But the other strategic piece that occurs from that is that AST SpaceMobile becomes Very critical for the MNOs to to compete against Starlink, and so again going back to twenty early 2024, we had one MNO. Now we've got three of the most profitable market in the world, and so that's a really good place to be, right? And and what this does is because SpaceX has been explicit about its competitive intent, then the discussions with MNOs globally become much easier. It's not a hard; it's not a difficult sell of. Do you choose— do they choose Starlink or do they choose AST? It's AST comes and says, we want to be your partner. Starlink, they've made their intentions clear. They want to be the dominant provider of global communications. And so if you're a board, if you're an MNO that has value and has market leadership, you're not going to work with Starlink. Now, you could be one of these smaller players and it's decide to work with Starlink, and that might give you a short-term boost, but over the long run, you know, you're basically giving your keys away, right? That's not a long-term strategy. But the more important point here is that that opens up one, discussions with MNOs. It makes it easier because it's not— everyone knows now, like, the intentions of what SpaceX is doing. And so there needs to be a strategic counter. But just as importantly, the conversation with regulators changed as well, right? So AST is coming in, working in partnership with local MNOs. We're not looking to hollow out the MNOs or take cash out of the countries, which, by the way, like Deutsche Telekom was trying to buy T-Mobile and US regulators, the feedback from the government, part of it was we don't want you to buy them because we don't want you taking profits from the US and taking them out to Germany or Europe. They want to keep the asset American. And so imagine AST SpaceMobile going to regulators and saying, well, we'd like to work with your local MNOs, we're going to support them with this global service, we also can offer a kill switch, where they have control and sovereignty over your country when these satellites fly over. And then, you know, you keep You keep all the data generated in your country, lands in your country. We're not offloading it on this separate network that Starlink can move it around. They have access to, they keep it. Your data stays sovereign. And so for regulators, this is the solution that they want to go with, right? And we've seen Anatel give a 10 by 10 megahertz spectrum allocation to AST. I believe Europe is going to do the same thing, a 10 by 10 megahertz allocation. We just got approval in Kenya to work with Safaricom for over 20 megahertz by 20 megahertz of 700 megahertz spectrum. And so these dominoes are going to start falling a lot more quickly because I think from a regulatory perspective, for Starlink to come in, you're going— and SpaceX, you're going to be very skeptical. Because what Starlink is saying is we are going to extract value from your country. We're going to take away data sovereignty and communication sovereignty, and we are going to own it. And we're going to have this colossal global network that we own that your customers are going to roam on. And we are looking to take market share from your incumbents. And so imagine going to Germany and saying, hey, you know, your national champion, Deutsche Telekom? we're looking to hollow them out, or going to Spain and saying, we're going to take share and hollow out Telefónica. The regulators are going to say, NFW. And so the one thing for me that I thought was bizarre about unloading on the market yesterday in this Q&A session, you're setting yourselves up for regulatory failure because EchoStar, that deal hasn't closed yet. And so It still has to go through international regulatory approval. And let's, let's just say like it gets approved. And by the way, if you're Charlie Ergen and you heard this on the call yesterday and your deal's still pending international regulatory review, I would be sweating bullets, right? Because it's like, shit, they might have kiboshed this deal. Not on purpose, but the regulators are going to drag these guys through the coals, right? And they're going to have to agree to some pretty strict conditions probably in order to use the licenses that they have. And The bigger question is for EchoStar, some of the licenses are coming up for renewal, right? So, or, and some of them are not, you know, they have rights, but they're not necessarily granted. And so for Europe, there's 2 companies that own a majority or hold a majority of the S-band licenses, and that those 2 companies are EchoStar and Viasat. And so those licenses are are basically being mixed together and it's a jump ball, right? Or jump ball reallocation in early 2027. AST looks like they're going to get a slug of that. Europe's IRIS is going to get a slug of that. And then is EchoStar and Viasat, are they going to get an allocation? It's unclear, right? So imagine the EU regulators are like, okay, maybe we're going to give some, maybe we'll give 10 by 10 megahertz to EchoStar, who's getting acquired by Starlink, SpaceX. But then SpaceX came out and said that they're going to compete with all the European MNOs and they're going to develop a standalone service and they're looking to take traffic and take value from our incumbents. Like, is that something you want to approve? Are they going to get a license again? It's unclear, right? And this is something that you can this situation, you use copy and paste across the globe in regions, right? When EchoStar's licenses come up for renewal, or, you know, regulators can, if they want to, they can unilaterally, you know, if they believe that licenses aren't being used properly or whatever. I mean, you saw that here in the US with Brendan Carr said, hey, Ergon, you haven't met your build-out requirements. If you don't do something, sell your licenses, we're going to take them away from you. And that's what they had to sell to to Musk, these licenses are not set in stone. If you're abusing them or if you're not utilizing them properly, regulators can take them. So I think some people ponder what is it going to take for Starlink to go compete, to develop a ground— stand up a mobile business? Well, first, they're going to have to keep— again, they're going to have to do their best to keep their hands on all this spectrum that EchoStar has. And so they need to be very friendly with regulators. And maybe the story is different in different countries. They're not going to go compete directly with MNOs, but that's always going to be in the back of people's minds, right? But going back to the US, I think folks should have a hefty, healthy dose of skepticism. 'Cause it's going to take a lot of time. If you're going to compete with MNOs, you can deploy the AWS-3 spectrum and provide a, I think what Bernstein had talked about, kind of a low-end quality of service. But if you are going to truly compete with MNOs, you're going to have to buy some low-band spectrum. You're going to have to hang that up, put it up on towers. This idea of building out small cells, That sounds interesting and great, but it's going to require a lot of money and it's going to require new terminals that can also be cell repeaters or be small cell towers. You're going to have to get customers to buy that equipment and incentivize them to use it. There's been some talk about maybe Teslas could be things like moving Wi-Fi stations for people. I mean, that's certainly possible too. One thing that Analogy, cable tried to do this when they had spectrum. They're like, well, we can enter into an MVNO with Verizon or AT&T and T-Mobile, but then we'll create all these Wi-Fi hotspots all around the city, which is what they did in New York, by the way. And at the end of that process, they built out all these Wi-Fi hotspots, but they didn't work that well. They were shit. For anybody who has spectrum, the idea sounded good, but it just never really— [00:24:09] Speaker B: Yeah. [00:24:09] Speaker A: worked, right? And it only worked if you were walking around near one of these Wi-Fi hotspots. But if you're in your car or elsewhere, I mean, you pretty much were on the roaming network, um, connecting to Verizon, uh, or T-Mobile. Um, I, I did— so there was a point yesterday I think made by, um, Mach33, uh, where he was saying that, well, most of your traffic does go— is on your Wi-Fi network. And that's absolutely true. I mean, if you're indoors in a place that you trust, right? So that's typically work or home. You spend a vast majority of your data consumption on Wi-Fi, but there is a reason why you pay Spectrum or Verizon Fios $50, $60, $70 for all-you-can-eat data that's pretty high band. But then you pay a premium for mobile connectivity because we're in areas where there is no alternative. You pay more for that, right? So I pay over $100 for each line on Verizon for all-you-can-eat high-speed data. And maybe I use that only 20% of the day or 15% of the day when you're out and about. But that's, that's the cost of mobile connectivity. And going back to these areas where there's no connectivity, dead spots, or there's 1 bar, you know, what are people willing to pay for that? [00:25:27] Speaker B: Right. [00:25:28] Speaker A: And maybe, maybe some people don't. But for someone like me who needs to be connected all the time, who might be trading things, I will pay an absolute premium for that. And so that's where Starlink will have it kind of in reverse, where they'll have good coverage in the dead spots and 1-bar areas. And then maybe the challenge they'll have competing with MNOs is those dense areas, right? Where they'll have to build out basically a terrestrial network, which is really expensive. And that takes time. And so the key question is, you know, who signs up for that service? Like, if you do sign up for that service, maybe you have Starlink as your primary service and then you try to buy a cheap AT&T plan through and have that as a fallback service. But that's from a user, you know, user experience perspective, that's not something people want. They want something seamless, right? And so maybe in several years, Starlink will get to that. eventually. But yeah, it's going to take time, right? I mean, it's all a discussion right now, but as we know, these things take a lot of time. You can ask Charlie Ergen. He basically bankrupted Dish trying to build out a wireless network. He spent, I don't know, something like $8 billion, $9 billion outside of just the spectrum, but just building out the network. And so this stuff's not easy, and he is using state-of-the-art technology and all these different things to try to save on CapEx, and yet it still failed. That said, I wouldn't underestimate SpaceX. I think they will eventually get there, and it's a good thing, right? For the American consumer, it's good that there will be choices. And for AST, as I mentioned before, this is a script that you could not have written better, right? It's going from being important for one MNO to basically being important to every MNO. Right? Every MNO in the US, every MNO in Europe, everyone in Africa, everyone in Asia, the Middle East. Yeah, I mean, it's about as bullish. I can't express how bullish I am. And yeah, it's going to take the market time and no one's going to believe until they see it. But when you see AST work with T-Mobile, what does that unlock for the company? Just like what Verizon did, where it took the company to the next level. Where does having the top 3 carriers in the US, which the rest of the world kind of follows, what does that unlock for this company? And that's, that's, you know, that your imagination can run wild with that, what that says. But that's the reality that we're in. And it's, and it's, it's something that we've talked about as a concept for quite some time because the tealeaves were all there. And but now it's a reality. Right? Like, now there's, I think there's some skeptics that say, well, I think maybe SpaceX was saying all those things as jockeying for position to get a better deal from the MNOs. I think whoever said that is smoking crack because there's, you don't say those things and then take it back. You know, an MNO is going to be scared and then all of a sudden give you an MVNO. I mean, it's gotten to this point where The 3 of these guys who are the fiercest competitors are getting in the same room and forming a joint venture. When have we ever seen that structure or that level of cooperation happen? I don't think I've ever seen that in an industry like this. So yeah, on the one hand, people say, well, satellite connectivity, it's a niche market. It's not that big of a deal, but yet somehow The 3 largest and most profitable carriers in the world are getting together in a joint venture to address the— to address it strategically and are pooling resources to make it a reality. So, you know, try to reconcile those 2 things. It's not that important. It's not a big deal. It's a niche. And then the 3 carriers are, are going up against antitrust concerns and forming a joint venture to do this right. [00:29:37] Speaker B: So That's— [00:29:42] Speaker A: those are my thoughts. Some, some thought— more thoughts on SpaceX. I think they're— the next few months are going to be extremely interesting. And, um, and we've got— you've got the, the winning hand. You, as in the AST SpaceMobile shareholder, you have, you have the nuts, right? It's a, it's a royal flush and everybody else is drawing dead. Like, that's, that's plain simple, like the, the dynamic, right? And so Yeah, the market can be volatile and the company trades with the sector and yada yada yada. But I know what I own and and I'm fully loaded. I actually bought more yesterday and this morning. You know, I'm not on margin, not doing any of that stupid stuff. But I I know that these catalysts are coming, right? And so so yeah, I'm excited. But I'll end with this. I got to board soon. We have earnings on Monday. I did want to temper some people's expectations. I think this JLEO project, it is happening, of course, and we will find out more details through regulators. And I'm sure Rakuten will have something to say eventually. But the joint venture between AST and Rakuten, that probably is going to take some time to figure out. Right. And so, so It's not something that, that can happen overnight. It might take a while. And so just give the process, you know, be patient. It's going to— all good things require time, right? And similarly on the telco JV, even though the CEO said, hey, we feel good where it is and it's coming soon, that's a complex beast. It's going to take time to get to a definitive agreement. But as I said before, it's going to be well worth the wait. And if anything, if it was going to take 2 or 3 months to get onto tape, the fact that SpaceX said what they did yesterday, maybe that cuts that time in half. [00:31:34] Speaker B: Right. [00:31:34] Speaker A: Because I'm sure the fire is under everyone's butts in these boardrooms to get this thing done as quickly as possible. And if you're T-Mobile, you're looking at the business case to dropping Starlink early. Right? Because every day that you continue to perpetuate T-Satellite is another day of free marketing, another day of awareness, and you're just enabling your competitor. As I mentioned before, I think there will be a Harvard business case study of one of the biggest strategic blunders of all time, which is Mike Sievert enabling Starlink and SpaceX. What a terrible, terrible strategic mistake. Maybe I'll do a space on that at some point. But as I've pointed out before, a vast majority of the executives who that decision was made under, they're all gone. The most recent being— I forgot the guy's last name, but I did a post earlier. I mean, you can count on your hand all the executives who were there for the Starlink decision. They're all gone. [00:32:40] Speaker B: Right. [00:32:41] Speaker A: And you've got Deutsche Telekom with their own people in place. Because they had to fix the problem. So anyway, that's kind of all I had. I'm going to do a quick— just check the comments real quick. Let's see. Someone's asking if we're going to see some PRs before earnings. I doubt it. I mean, earnings are on Monday. So if the company is good, they'll keep some news to themselves. If you're asking if we're going to get T-Mobile news, no, we're not going to get to it. All this stuff is like really big and important and it's going to take time, right? So I would not try to, try to bet on something happening near term. But one day you're going to walk in and you and I are going to be ecstatic, but the rest of the market is going to be utterly surprised and it's going to be a good day. Let's see here. Actually, I've got a— there's a few questions in here. Oh, someone says, how many launches are on Falcon 9 are scheduled to my knowledge? Well, I know that we have a handful of them, and I know that the company has bought more. And then I also, I believe we have the ability to take other people's slots if if people don't make it, which it sounds like there's gonna be a few constellations where they are not gonna make it on time. And so it's gonna be a pretty interesting few months. [00:34:15] Speaker B: Good job. [00:34:15] Speaker A: 'Cause we're gonna be pumping out satellites and having them ready, and some of these launches may come on pretty short notice. And so just be ready, have your bags packed, get ready to fly down to Cape Canaveral 'cause we're gonna be launching satellites. Someone's asking, do you expect Scott to provide any color on Meta talks during the earnings call? I don't believe they will. But what you can do as a fellow shareholder, you can submit a question to the company, and if they choose to address it, they will. So I would ask, you know, what are we doing with Meta and how does that impact the business? And, but yeah, that's a fair question you should ask. All right, I gotta run. I gotta catch my flight. Thanks everyone for joining. Yeah, it's an exciting time. I can't emphasize enough how bullish yesterday was regarding SpaceX news. And obviously we launched more satellites. The constellation has grown. We're getting more satellites as the days go by up into the air, and we are about to launch beta service and commercial service shortly after that. And so these are really exciting times. I know one of us, Any Citizen, was joking that— and we feel bad for people that were leveraged or sold kind of recently, but just stay focused. Don't be on margin, don't overtrade, just stay focused because now we're kind of in the heat of things. This is like if Steve Jobs was about to announce the iPhone and because of some volatility that have nothing to do with Apple. A shareholder sells Apple right before the product announcement. This is a similar window that we're in. This is the time to have your investment. Don't be overleveraged. Don't be in derivatives. Don't be in these things that force you to make a decision sooner than you have to. Just own shares and just sit back and let the company execute and And trust the process. Anyway, thanks everyone for joining, and we'll catch up again soon. Bye. [00:36:33] Speaker B: Thanks for listening to the AST Space Rover Podcast. If you enjoyed this episode and you'd like to help support. To support the podcast, please share it with others, post about it on social media, or leave a rating and review. To catch all the latest news about AST SpaceMobile, make sure to subscribe. Thanks again, and I'll see you next time. Listen. [00:36:55] Speaker A: Mmm, waffles.
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