Episode
Kook's Weekly - March 15 - The World Spectrum Classic: AST SpaceMobile vs. The Competition
Kook, solo host of the AST SpaceMobile Podcast, delivers his weekly recap framing the current environment as a "World Spectrum Classic" in which AST SpaceMobile has out-maneuvered SpaceX/Starlink through compounding technology, regulatory, and business moats.
He highlights AT&T's quarter-trillion-dollar connectivity plan explicitly naming ASTS, Verizon's withdrawal of its 2020 petition to deny ASTS, active FirstNet integration, and technical/interference advantages over Starlink.
He concludes that SES approval could come "any day" and that Golden Dome/defense applications remain a major long-term catalyst.
Key Takeaways
- Kook argues AST SpaceMobile has three compounding competitive moats — technology, regulatory savvy, and business strategy — that let it aggregate spectrum (including in Europe) that rivals structurally cannot use.
- SpaceX filed an FCC letter criticizing AST SpaceMobile, arguing inconsistency in how ASTS's European sovereign structure (Satellite Connect Europe) squares with it being an American company, which Kook reads as a sign of competitive panic.
- Kook speculates, without confirmation, that AST SpaceMobile may be positioning itself to participate in the EU's IRIS² satellite project based on unconfirmed clues in public filings and partner relationships.
- AT&T announced plans to spend roughly a quarter of a trillion dollars advancing U.S. connectivity and explicitly named AST SpaceMobile as its satellite solution, to be fully integrated with AT&T's fiber backbone.
- Verizon withdrew its petition to deny AST SpaceMobile at the FCC; Verizon originally filed that petition in November 2020, signed an MOU with AST in 2024, and signed a definitive agreement (DA) in 2025 — Kook views the withdrawal as a sign SES/SCS approval may be imminent.
- Kook cites technical claims that AST SpaceMobile's beams deliver 120 Mbps per beam versus roughly 4 Mbps per beam reported for SpaceX/Starlink's direct-to-cell service, with ASTS also capable of generating far more (Kook estimates around 2,800) and much narrower beams than Starlink's roughly 40 larger, more heavily shared beams.
- AST SpaceMobile's satellites reportedly can operate near Ligado's L-band spectrum (adjacent to sensitive GPS frequencies) without interference because of tightly directed, low-shoulder beamforming, whereas Kook says Globalstar reportedly cannot use that spectrum at all and Iridium would need very good filters to do so.
- AST SpaceMobile uses a ground-based ('bent pipe') signal-processing architecture versus Starlink's on-satellite processing, which Kook and cited analyst 'Katzi' argue is easier to scale/upgrade for 6G/NTN and preserves partner MNOs' data sovereignty.
- A filing found by a community member ('Tanner') states AST SpaceMobile has deployed and released many fixed reference cells across the continental U.S. to MNO/OEM partners for network integration testing, with cells already active and beta testing of initial non-continuous SpaceMobile service expected to continue.
- FirstNet's own website now advertises 'FirstNet Satellite with AST SpaceMobile,' including push-to-talk functionality relevant to first responders, positioning ASTS as a complement to (or replacement for) existing systems like Motorola Solutions.
- Kook discusses Golden Dome (the broader U.S. missile-defense architecture) expanding, with Japan reportedly joining, and argues AST SpaceMobile is positioned to serve as a tracking, custody, and data-transport backbone for such systems, though this remains his speculative long-term thesis, not a confirmed contract.
- Real-world Starlink complaints are piling up: Deutsche Telekom and O2 have reportedly criticized Starlink's direct-to-cell performance, farmers using Starlink for John Deere equipment saw commercial pricing jump from about $150/month to about $500/month, pilots have raised similar pricing complaints, and Kenya is reviewing its Starlink partnership over interference concerns.
- Kook flags that New Glenn's third flight needs a successful hot fire/static fire test before AST SpaceMobile's FM-2 (BlueBird 7 replacement/next Block 2 launch) date can be solidified, and that satellite-stacking engineering (stacking 6 to 8 satellites) has reportedly now been certified, removing a prior schedule risk.
Detailed Discussion9 topics
Competitive positioning: the 'World Spectrum Classic' and the three moats
6
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Kook frames the current competitive environment as a 'World Spectrum Classic,' arguing AST SpaceMobile has surprised the world and rivals are now struggling to catch up.
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An FCC filing shows SpaceX submitting commentary (citing analyst 'CATSE') complaining about ASTS, arguing an inconsistency: if ASTS's Satellite Connect Europe entity is European-sovereign, it supposedly can't also be treated as an American company; Kook says this claim is not right but reflects competitive alarm as Satellite Connect Europe gains traction.
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Kook's framework: AST SpaceMobile has three compounding moats — technology, regulatory savvy, and business strategy — where regulatory-friendly European structuring plus superior technology lets the business model become a further competitive advantage, allowing ASTS to capture MSS spectrum others can't use.
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Kook speculates, based on unspecified deep due diligence into a public filing that he says wasn't obviously intended to reveal this, that AST SpaceMobile may be inserting itself into the IRIS² (EU sovereign satellite) project, citing multiple European partners beyond MNOs as suggestive but not confirmed evidence.
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Kook says forecasting AST SpaceMobile's future is like 'drawing up estimates in a crayon, not a scalpel' — he frames 2030 revenue as plausibly $1 billion, $10 billion, $20 billion, or $30 billion, explicitly calling this a rough order-of-magnitude guess rather than a real forecast.
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Kook floats that the Satellite Connect Europe opportunity alone could be worth roughly $10 billion, and combined with U.S. commercial and military opportunity, could support a trillion-dollar market cap thesis for AST SpaceMobile — explicitly caveated as not a foregone conclusion or a price target, but something he believes management/the board may be thinking about.
MNO validation: AT&T's connectivity plan and network economics
4
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Kook references an analyst framework (attributed to 'Cathie'/'Katzi') that 'spectrum will find its way to the most efficient system,' and analogizes AST SpaceMobile to a low-cost commodity producer (like a Potash company in Canada or Saudi Arabia oil) that should structurally aggregate the most spectrum as the most efficient system, quoting Abel Avellan's characterization of spectrum as 'the asset that has a value that nobody can afford.'
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AT&T stated it will spend a quarter of a trillion dollars to advance U.S. connectivity and specifically named AST SpaceMobile as its satellite solution, stating it will be fully integrated with AT&T's fiber backbone.
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Citing analysis from 'Dr. Mike,' Kook explains AT&T's rationale: satellite (via ASTS) can replace AT&T's copper carrier-of-last-resort obligations while converging with AT&T's overall network, saving CapEx and improving revenue efficiency by reducing churn on already-acquired customers.
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Kook says he doesn't fully understand ASTS's role in 6G but sees a trend where next-generation (NTN) networks will depend on ASTS-enabled spectrum reuse of frequencies currently unusable via terrestrial networks.
Satellite/network status and FirstNet integration
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A 'UFO-style' community sighting of FM-1 (BlueBird 6) was retweeted by the company this week, showing the deployed payload module (PLM) more clearly, though Kook says it doesn't reveal new information.
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A filing found by community member 'Tanner' states AST SpaceMobile has 'deployed and released many fixed cells over the continental US to our MNO and OEM partners as reference cells for network integration,' continues testing spectrum quality of those cells, has received approval to activate fixed cells from an MNO, and expects to continue testing toward space mobile service automation including beta testing before initial non-continuous SpaceMobile service rollout.
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FirstNet's website was updated to state 'FirstNet Satellite with AST SpaceMobile' extends coverage 'to virtually anywhere' and highlights push-to-talk services, which Kook says positions ASTS as a complement to (or potential replacement for) systems like Motorola Solutions for first responders.
Technical differentiation vs. Starlink: interference, beamforming, architecture
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Citing interference data reviewed by analyst 'Katzi,' Kook says AST SpaceMobile was transmitting well below the maximum allowed RF interference threshold on every cell, while Starlink reportedly could not operate even a minimum constellation without exceeding the limit and needing a waiver.
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Kook (via Katzi's technical commentary) argues AST SpaceMobile's ground-based ('bent pipe') signal processing is better suited to handling the computationally intensive Doppler-shift compensation required for 6G/NTN networks at LEO orbital speeds (~17,000 mph) than Starlink's closed, on-satellite processing architecture, which is harder to coordinate/upgrade in orbit.
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Kook argues the bent-pipe (ground-processing) architecture also preserves 'data sovereignty' for MNOs and countries, which he says matters especially to European partners wary of data control by the U.S. or by SpaceX.
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On Ligado spectrum, Kook explains it sits near sensitive GPS spectrum (which cannot tolerate high-power adjacent emissions), and says AST SpaceMobile's powerful, tightly directed beamforming (a 'rectangle' power profile with a sharp drop-off rather than broad 'shoulders') lets it use that spectrum without interfering with GPS — per Katzi's view, Globalstar reportedly can't use it at all, and Iridium would need very good filters given its proximity.
Regulatory dockets: SES approval and Verizon's shifting position
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Kook reports the company is awaiting SES (satellite/SCS) approval, and notes Verizon withdrew its petition to deny AST SpaceMobile this week, which Kook reads as docket 'cleanup' suggesting approval may be imminent — 'we think it could be any day.'
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Citing a timeline compiled by 'Alfred Mertz,' Kook recounts that Verizon filed a petition to deny AST SpaceMobile in November 2020, signed an MOU in 2024, signed a definitive agreement (DA) in 2025, and has now withdrawn the original petition to deny — evidence, in Kook's view, of Verizon's shift from viewing ASTS as a competitive threat to aligning with it.
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Kook notes Anpanman also hosted a Space this week covering FirstNet, Japan joining Golden Dome, and Starlink's shortcomings, which Kook says covered similar ground and is worth listening to separately.
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Kook relays a quote from a former SpaceX product manager on a TIGUS call stating 'I know there's AST SpaceMobile who are gearing up to do some interesting things as well' on direct-to-cell and AI training, in the context of AI inference discussion — flagged by Kook as an interesting, unconfirmed signal.
Golden Dome and defense applications
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Kook says Golden Dome continues to expand, with Japan reportedly joining, and frames the Iran conflict as effectively an advertisement for U.S. weapons-system capability; he believes AST SpaceMobile will be revealed as an integral backbone — specifically in the tracking, custody, and data-transport layer of missile defense — though he stresses this is his belief/hope, not a confirmed contract ('not a foregone conclusion').
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Kook discusses growing importance of GPS-independent systems in modern warfare, citing Anduril's move away from GPS reliance after lessons learned in Ukraine, and noting Iran reportedly switched from GPS-guided weapons to a Chinese navigation network — underscoring electronic-warfare/jamming vulnerabilities that Kook believes play toward ASTS's positioning.
Market framing: insurance analogy, pricing, and TAM
4
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Citing a T-Mobile USA CEO comment relayed via a 'TIGR' account post, Kook agrees with framing direct-to-cell/D2D service as an 'insurance product' — low-frequency need but high-value when needed, justifying a willingness to pay premium for downside protection.
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Kook cites early carrier price discovery: 'One New Zealand' is pricing satellite data service at $20/month (New Zealand dollars, which Kook estimates converts to roughly $12-15 USD) and satellite text service separately at 5 New Zealand dollars/month, which he says helps set expectations for where a premium broadband satellite tier might land.
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Kook discusses AST SpaceMobile as a platform whose total addressable market is hard to fully scope because use cases vary by individual (e.g., recreational users rigging Starlink dishes to snowmobiles in Montana for connectivity), suggesting eventual on-phone satellite connectivity could replace such niche equipment-heavy solutions and that tiered service packages could capture this demand.
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Kook notes SpaceX's IPO buzz continues to build and mentions unconfirmed talk that SpaceX may get an accelerated path into the S&P 500 earlier than expected.
Starlink competitive weaknesses and beam capacity comparison
8
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Kook dismisses a bear thesis posted by 'Stuart Lucky' but highlights a more substantive competing claim from a person citing SpaceX partner 'Virgin Media' data that Starlink's direct-to-cell beams deliver only about 4 megabits per second, versus AST SpaceMobile's beams, which Kook says are about 30 times larger and deliver about 120 megabits per second per beam.
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Kook explains that beam capacity is shared among users within a beam, so Starlink's 4 Mbps beams degrade further when shared among many users in urban/denser areas, while in rural dead zones fewer users mitigates the problem — reinforcing his view that Starlink's system functions more as a niche dead-zone patch than a full network-of-the-future solution.
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Citing detail found by community member 'Kevin,' Kook says SpaceX satellites generate about 40 beams each doing about 4 Mbps, while AST SpaceMobile satellites are capable of producing roughly 2,800 beams at up to 120 Mbps each, constrained in practice by onboard processing/bandwidth capacity (a function partly addressed by the AST5000 ASIC) rather than by beam-generation limits.
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Kook notes Deutsche Telekom and, more recently, O2 have both been reported as critical of Starlink's direct-to-cell performance, suggesting carriers that signed up with Starlink are increasingly looking toward alternatives rather than the reverse.
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Kook speculates about the possibility that SpaceX could end up a weaker-than-expected number-two competitor if its own carrier customers begin multi-clienting with AST SpaceMobile, explicitly framing this as a possibility, not a foregone conclusion.
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Kook contrasts Orange's managed-core-network partnership approach (an 'Orange-managed core network') with Starlink's closed, Starlink-managed core network model, citing a prior complaint from Telstra in Australia about the integration burden of running two separate networks under Starlink's approach — versus MNOs retaining control under AST SpaceMobile's model.
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Kook cites reports of Starlink vendor lock-in backlash: farmers using Starlink-connected autonomous John Deere combines saw commercial-tier pricing jump from about $150/month to about $500/month, and pilots have reportedly raised similar pricing complaints.
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Kook notes Kenya is reviewing its Starlink partnership due to interference concerns with mobile phone networks, which he frames as part of a broader pattern of regulators and MNOs pushing back against Starlink as it enters new markets.
Launch cadence outlook
2
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Kook says it was a comparatively slow news week but expects more visibility soon on the FM-2 launch, contingent on a successful New Glenn 3 hot fire/static fire test expected this week or next, after which a firm launch date can be set.
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Kook says the satellite-stacking engineering challenge — safely stacking 6 to 8 satellites for launch — has reportedly now been solved/certified, which he characterizes as a one-time critical-path item that, once solved, should not recur as a future delay.
Watch Items2
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FCC SES/SCS approval for AST SpaceMobile's expanded constellation license
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New Glenn 3 hot fire / static fire test, needed before a firm FM-2 launch date can be set
Open Questions5
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Is AST SpaceMobile actually involved in the EU's IRIS² satellite project, as suggested by unconfirmed clues in public filings and partner relationships?
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How large is AST SpaceMobile's true addressable market and long-term revenue potential — Kook frames 2030 revenue as plausibly anywhere from $1 billion to $30 billion, calling this level of imprecision unavoidable at this stage.
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When exactly will the FCC grant SES/SCS approval, and will it come as soon as this week as docket cleanup (Verizon's withdrawal) suggests?
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Will AST SpaceMobile secure a formal, confirmed role in Golden Dome's tracking/custody/transport layer, or does that remain aspirational?
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How will satellite phone/data pricing tiers ultimately be structured once commercial service scales, given early data points like One New Zealand's $20/month data and 5 NZD/month text pricing?
Raw Transcript
Show full transcript
[00:00:06] Speaker A: This is the AST SpaceMobile Podcast. [00:00:09] Speaker B: It will just basically come to your phone and be seamless regardless of where you are. We don't want the user even to know that it's connected by satellite. Listen, the opportunity that we have is very, very, very large. [00:00:27] Speaker C: All right, good evening everyone. I don't know if everyone was watching the World Baseball Classic, but that was a pretty awesome high-suspense game. Go USA! And speaking of Team USA, AST SpaceMobile. So the global spectrum race is on. Just like the World Baseball Classic, we have the World Spectrum Classic going on right now, and ASTS Surprised the world and they're now struggling to catch up. So this week we're going to start off just by looking at an FCC filing with the famous or infamous, depending on your perspective, CATSE commentary. And so you have SpaceX writing a letter, basically just complaining about ASTS. And so, Satellite Connect Europe is starting to get real traction, and SpaceX is trying to draw some inconsistencies, saying that if ASTS is European-based, European sovereign, well then it can't be an American company. Well, this is not right, but it's also just highlighting the fact that ASTS in a commercial gambit has seemingly struck quite a large competitive advantage. And this goes to really the cartoon for this week is there's 3 really big moats. There's the tech, there's regulatory, and then there's business. They compound on each other. And so because you have the tech, because you have the regulatory savvy approach, your business model can be a competitive advantage. And this is what we're seeing here is because they had the unique approach to the business, Because it was structured in a way that was very regulatory friendly for the Europeans, because the tech is so good, then ASTS appears to be in a position to snatch up a lot of MSS spectrum. And we think, we being, you know, the people that stay up all night talking about this thing, we think that ASTS is inserting itself into the IRIS Squared project. There's some other things we found that suggest that that might be. more true than we could have ever believed in terms of the types of partners they have. And it was in a public filing, but it wasn't obvious the company had intended it to be, so I won't mention it here. But you can see through some deep due diligence that there's multiple European angles and partners extending beyond MNOs in terms of how the company is pursuing this. And it is exciting because of the pathway to capture more spectrum. With that additional spectrum, it becomes very exciting because of the commercial and then therefore the economic opportunity, which I think is very big. When I go kind of do the back of the envelope math, I start to realize that the European opportunity can be very, very big. And remember what we're really solving for here, You know, all jokes aside from the shorts who would mock me for this, but you're trying to draw up estimates in a crayon, not a scalpel. It's very difficult to be precise when making a forecast for a business like AST SpaceMobile that has so much potential, but is also so new. What you're trying to figure out is revenue going to be $1 billion in 2030, $10 billion, $20 billion, $30 billion, you know, so on and so forth. You're trying to figure out something within degree of accuracy of base 10, which is crazy that we actually really don't know. But when you start to dial in some thinking of Satellite Connect Europe, you start to go, well, huh, could this alone be a $10 billion opportunity? And then things in the US, obviously military. And that's what gets me really excited when I'm really trying to draw a line to a trillion-dollar market cap, which is definitely not a foregone conclusion. It's not a target price, but it's something that I think the management team believes. And while Abel can't come out and say something, well, I guess he could come out and say something like that, but he probably won't because he's a conservative guy. What you're trying to do If you're playing the game I play, is put yourself in the perspective of a founder. Put yourself in the perspective of someone on the board of directors that's thinking about the arc of a company's business prospects over 5, 10+ years. And if you can nail that sort of big long-term thinking, the stock returns take care of themselves. And so some might say, well, Kook, what about whether the Strait of Hormuz is shut for another 3 days? Yeah, I don't care. That literally has zero bearing on my thinking and my analysis of AST SpaceMobile. [00:05:31] Speaker B: Zero. [00:05:32] Speaker C: And perhaps that should be the same for you too. Um, that's the difference between short-term trading and long-term investing in my, in my view. And so I'm really thinking about these things that Cathie puts out, and I think that When we look back in a year or two, frankly, when we are looking back today at the prior 3 years, this framework of what he said around spectrum will find its way to the most efficient system is so elegant in its first principles thinking and gives us a really nice framework by which to analyze again, these 3 pillars of that statement, tech, regulatory, business. And so I really like the purity of Cathie's thinking because it, I'm just trying to think of how, what analog is right for me. To me, it really comes down to kind of a commodity company that is just structurally a low-cost producer. And so think of like Potash Company in Canada. It just structurally was the lowest-cost guy. Think of Saudi Arabia, lowest-cost producer, I believe. These are the types of things that accrue massive economic rent over time. And AST SpaceMobile, if it is in fact the most efficient system, should aggregate the most spectrum. And spectrum is the asset, to quote Abel, that has a value that nobody can afford. It's worth so much. And that's, that's a really exciting bull case as it starts to pan out. The MNO CEOs are saying, "I want it," and so this week it seems like a lifetime ago at this point. But AT&T came out saying casually they're going to spend quarter of a trillion dollars to advance U.S. connectivity. So they're swinging the bat, and what was neat is they specifically mentioned AST Space Mobile. And so as Carol Kaziki. Uh, outlined for us. This statement is total validation. AT&T explicitly named ASTS as their satellite solution. Note it will be fully integrated with the fiber backbone. I again think this is again going to the point of how we have something much bigger than we think. The simple bear case is we just have dead zone things. One sec, we might have a cold and just ask my wife if she can bring me anything to drink before I start coughing. Last week we talked about the fact that 6G, we're starting to put more and more together. We're starting to realize that ASDS is integral to some of these next generation systems in ways that I certainly don't fully understand, but I'm smart enough to know when there's a trend appearing. And so here we have AT&T stated ASTS will be fully integrated with their fiber backbone. Pretty important. And we just want to see these MNOs really call us out by name. That is driving this sort of damn the bureaucracy type of speed we're seeing with the MNOs. If it's coming from the top, from a CEO, all of these mid-level guys are going to pave the way to get stuff done. And that's why we're starting to get all these MNO deals done. The fact that we had AT&T done, uh, it was 2 years, was it a year ago or 2 years ago? A year ago at this point is impressive to mobilize their army of lawyers. And then we check in with Dr. Mike to again understand why it is that the MNOs care so much. And so he went back to some earlier work that shows where AT&T was going to be replacing the copper carrier of last resort obligations they have with satellite, but then also this convergence with their overall network. You start to have this double-headed win for them of we're going to save CapEx meaningfully to reallocate capital to the most important things. But we're also going to have more efficient revenue, which is very, very important because a customer that's already acquired that stays, i.e., if you reduce churn, that's the holy grail. That's what you really want to have if you're an MNO. And the belief is, and I believe this firmly, is that ASTS will help lower churn in addition to all the CapEx savings. And then we really, I don't truly understand the importance to the next generation 6G network, but we're starting to realize that it is very important in terms of how spectrum is reused and utilized and how it brings spectrum to the party that currently can't be used via the terrestrial networks. So all this relies on our satellites being up in the air. And this week we had a sighting of FM-1, which is pretty wild, a true-to-life UFO sighting. And then a company retweeted it. So pretty, pretty cool. It does show the deployed, uh, payload module, the PLM. So the, the ultimate next generation design is becoming a little bit, certainly a blurry image, but more clear. We're actually seeing it. Doesn't really tell us anything we didn't know before. And then the cells are already active. And so while we see the satellite, the cells that are being created from these satellites are active. So Tanner found a really neat filing that says we have deployed and released many fixed cells over the continental US to our MNO and OEM partners as reference cells for network integration. We continue to test the spectrum quality of those fixed cells and received approval to activate fixed cells from an MNO. We expect to continue testing for space mobile service automation, including beta testing prior rollout of initial non-continuous space mobile service. So it's out there. If you feel a disturbance in the force, you might be walking through an AST space mobile beam. Pretty cool. FirstNet's coming. So FirstNet changed their website. It's hard to imagine it becoming any more clear than it already is. And so FirstNet Satellite with AST SpaceMobile extend coverage to virtually anywhere to maintain connectivity. That is on the FirstNet website. They also note push-to-talk services. This is where ASTS was purpose-built. For these use cases, push-to-talk is very important. If you're racing around as a first responder, you're not going to go into speed dial and be dialing people up every time you need to communicate. You want to have, you know, that Nextel back in the day type of functionality. Very important. First responders want that. That's going to help them use this system, uh, maybe as a replacement, uh, but certainly as a complement. To things like Motorola Solutions, which is a pretty decent-sized business. And the data that was put out with this, we got some additional interference data that CATC went through, which is always really cool to see. And we can just see that we have an incredible ability to transmit RF signals without creating interference. And so, as Katzy pointed out, we were blasting away and we were nowhere near the maximum allowed threshold, not in a single cell. And Starlink couldn't manage to operate a minimum constellation without exceeding the limit and having to ask for a waiver. This is what is going to cause breakaway adoption by AST SpaceMobile. This is what is likely going to cause the breakaway of SATCO, Satellite Connect Europe, where the boundaries become very important. So this interference data is right there, certainly beyond my initial pay grade to understand it, but took the time to really go through it, study Kathy's tweets, use a lot of AI to Yet further decipher Cathie's tweets. And all of this is in the DD doc if you're interested. I tried to write it out as best I could in layman's terms, certainly dense, but it's there. And so if you're interested in learning more about it, go to the pinned tweet and you'll see Spectrum sections. And a lot of it's covered in the technology section, which is certainly interesting stuff that I really hadn't known about before. So now we get back to the network of the future. So again, I think this is the thing that we don't probably understand fully enough. And so back with Katzy, of course, we have him talking about advanced delay and Doppler waveforms, lots of very big words. And then really the implications of this for 6th generation next terrestrial networks, NTN. And so he has a lot of cool tweets. And it really shows where the spectrum reuse and the technology brought to bear by AST SpaceMobile is what can enable this. But it is hard because the LEO satellites, if people, you know, the example of Doppler, if anyone forgets it from high school, is when an ambulance is racing toward you and then goes past you, that's where you get the Change in the siren. And that's the Doppler effect, is the speed shift of the sound. And so the same effect happens with RF signals, especially when you're cruising along at a casual 17,000 miles an hour. And so the math required to compensate for that is computationally intensive and requires a lot of technology. And that's where Katzi makes their observation that ASTS has such a big advantage. And so as we go to 6G, the complexity of making all of this work skyrockets. Starlink being the closed architecture people that they are, has all that processing on board. ASTS has it down on Earth, which Katzi's perspective is that it's very difficult to coordinate all this complexity in orbit on a closed system. Whereas having the bent pipe architecture, which ASTS uses, it's reflecting the raw signal down to a terrestrial processing mode. And so that is the easier, more scalable, upgradable way to handle this and be more relevant. It also has these side benefits, like we've talked about in the past, of data sovereignty. And things like that. That's what ends up being so important to the MNOs because it means you're not losing control of the data, which is very important when you're thinking about all these European countries, which are numerous and many, and not wanting to have all the data being shot over to the United States of America or in control, being controlled by the United States of America and especially being controlled by SpaceX. But then we go to how this also interplays with Legato. So the Legato spectrum is gold in my view, very, very valuable stuff. And Kasey does a nice job reminding us all of why that is. And so where the Legato spectrum lies in the sort of spectrum pancake, you have a comparison of it against where Globalstar sits and Iridium sits, but very importantly, where all of those things sit next to the GPS spectrum. Where you really can't mess with that. Otherwise planes fall out of the air, for example. And so you are not allowed to spam anywhere near the GPS signal. GPS is very faint. And so it's very sensitive if you start blasting with high power. And this was the original problem that Legato had. Now, AST SpaceMobile, with its incredibly powerful beamforming technology, is capable of working in those bands without spamming GPS because it has this very powerful but very directed beam. It doesn't have these shoulders. And so if you go into the DD doc, you're going to see things that look really like a rectangle where there's this, this plateau and then it falls off. That's good because if there were shoulders instead of the rectangle, those shoulders are emissions that are getting in adjacent spectrum bands, and that's bad. It muddles the signals. So Katzi goes through and notes his opinion that Globalstar can't work at all. Iridium, it's very difficult because it's closer and you'd need really good filters, and we can do it. So the top-tier technology that we have means that we can use this spectrum where no one else could. And going back to the, the title cartoon, if you will, the spectrum that no one else could use the way we could use it ended up— abracadabra— owned by us. Spectrum flows to the most efficient system. Very exciting stuff. So we are now also waiting for SES approval. This week showed some interesting little tidbits where Verizon withdrew Oh, here's my drink coming. Thank you very much. Oh, actually, we might have a brief intermission. One sec. Let me just put this on mute real quick. Everyone's in for a surprise. We have a brief message from our sponsor. AST Space Mobile's the best. You guys should all get it if you don't. Yeah, you should get it. Thank you for that paid programming. Okay, I'll go to that. Um, okay. My daughter had been working on her own AST Space Mobile advertisement and, uh, it looks like she kind of choked at the, at the, at the moment of, uh, she, when she saw all the emojis, I think that's when she got stage fright. Uh, maybe next week she'll, she'll do her Space Mobile impersonation. But anyway, we are back to SES approval. And so Verizon withdrew their petition to deny AST Space Mobile. [00:20:34] Speaker A: Awkward. [00:20:36] Speaker C: So obviously they no longer really have a petition to deny, but they're cleaning up the docket, which makes sense. So Verizon, you know, this is cool. Um, Alfred Mertz did the time series. So thanks for, thanks for this. In November 2020, Verizon files a petition to deny AST. In 2024, they sign an MOU. In 2025, they sign a DA. And then now they're removing the petition to deny. Clearly they've changed their view on AST SpaceMobile when it was a threat to them competitively because they were not involved with it and now they're aligned with it. And so the, again, the incredible partnership between AT&T and Verizon that few would've predicted 5 years ago. This type of filing cleanup to me smells like SES approval is coming. And so I know Justin is on the case. Our FCC scout is working overtime so that when that filing hits, which we think could be any day, that we'll all see it and YOLO a bunch of calls. And that is just one of many things that are cooking right now. I need a drink of water. Um, and Panman did a space— shocker— this week going over all the things that are exciting. And so he talked about FirstNet, Japan joining Golden Dome, which we'll get to, the, uh, Starlink not being great, and things like that. And so he covered this Really kind of covered my own spaces before me, and is probably worth listening to. I didn't listen to it, but it's there if you want to hear what he had to say. And then what I always like to hear is what SpaceX has to say about us when it's positive. And so there was a TIGUS call, which I had missed even though I subscribed to TIGUS. And SpaceX, a former product manager at SpaceX, said, "Quote, I know there's AST Space Mobile who are gearing up to do some interesting things as well." On the direct-to-cell side and the training side, etc. So this was in the context of AI inference. Pretty cool if SpaceX is saying ASTS is about to do some really cool things on the AI side. So we'll stay tuned for that. But meanwhile, while we wait for AI, which I believe is coming, we have Golden Dome. Continuing to progress, and so this is something that I am enormously excited about. I I think you know hope springs eternal. I get it, but like I I still think that ASTS is going to be revealed to be one of the integral backbones of the system, and I think it will be our moment. Golden Dome keeps getting bigger, and so Japan is joining Iran. The Iran conflict. will probably turn out to be just yet another advertisement for US weapon system capabilities. And the importance of Golden Dome seems obvious right now. And so the ability to track and take custody, in other words, to continue to track threats that are being aimed at your airspace would appear to be a bull market. And then how you destroy those things is ever-changing. So You know, obviously the current system we have is very expensive and there's lots of things everyone can read on that in the Wall Street Journal every day. And Ukraine has different techniques and maybe we'll have lasers, but at the end of the day, you got to see what's coming. And then you have to move all that data around so that then you can have some sort of kill capability against it. And I believe that ASTS is going to be in that tracking and custody and transport layer. And those are some pretty big markets. And more countries are joining, which is just more and more opportunity for this. But then we also just have the continued observations around the shortfalls of the GPS system. And I was fascinated to read more about Anduril this week. And so they're, you know, really learned some hard lessons in Ukraine and made their systems not even use GPS anymore. Just so that they weren't subject to such jamming. But Iran apparently switched from GPS-guided weapons to the Chinese network, et cetera, which is ironic if Iran was launching weapons using the US GPS system. It's like, thanks for nothing, guys. But the electronic warfare is very clearly front and center of this modern conflict. And I again believe that ASTS is also front and center of where the puck is going. So we have to watch these developments very carefully and try to get an understanding of not if, but in my view, when, and then really understanding the magnitude of it. The magnitude is a question we can ask. Around many markets. And so the analog we've talked about a lot, and this is where we have Only 6 Inches again posting a TIGR account, which is, which is neat. We have the T-Mobile USA CEO saying that they really think of the D2C category as an insurance product, which is What my view was as well, insurance is something that you hope not to use. So the frequency of needing it is low, but when you do need it, the magnitude is high. And for that, you're willing to bleed out premium to protect against your downside. And so the fear of lost connectivity when you most need it, in my view, is going to drive adoption because you just don't want to take the bet. And it depends on the pricing, and there's going to be a lot of tiers, I believe, of the service. And there's a lot to learn of how they do it. But having that early insight from T-Mobile, even with the crappy service that they launched, is, is pretty useful. And I'm going to skip one tweet ahead because it makes more sense now that I'm reading it. But we have the price discovery coming out on this sort of each day. And so 1 New Zealand is coming out showing that it's going to be $20 a month. I'm assuming this is in New Zealand dollars, so that's going to be more like $12 to $15 US a month. But then there's all— and that's for satellite data. And then there's going to be satellite text, which is going to be 5 New Zealand a month. Pretty big numbers for a pretty basic And that's setting some expectations for us on where a premium broadband service should stack out. But then the TAM is always just something that I think evolves. And I've talked many a time about ASTS as a platform where it's very difficult in life to write all the problem statements because people have different lived experiences. And I know the ways in which I would use a service like this are usually pretty kooky, But important to me, and they're very different from probably how a lot of other people would use it. So look no further, we have guys on snowmobiles rigging up Starlinks to get connectivity in the middle of Montana. And Starlink retweeted this, just showing that you can get fast, reliable internet even in the most extreme and remote locations. Well, okay, hooking up a satellite dish to your snowmobile is taking up some valuable real estate. It's a lot of equipment, and you got to have power, and yada da da. So when you start to get this just on your basic phone, that's going to be better. And there's some need state sufficiently large that Starlink felt compelled to show that to the world to give other people ideas on how they too could benefit from connectivity. This is the type of market too that I would point out where. Even though it's niche, although I say that, and whenever I go visit some people in the winter, everyone's snowmobiling. So it's not that small of a market. These are high-value markets because these are for enthusiasts that are trying to solve a very important problem statement that they have. And that's where these tiered packages, where you start to segment your demand, could end up being pretty interesting. As ASTS starts to roll out the service with limited capacity, one sec. The SpaceX IPO continues to just seem to snowball on itself like a snowmobile falling off a mountain, and so not only is their IPO going to be massive, but now it looks like they're going to get. A hack to get into the S&P earlier than expected, which is pretty neat. So I'm just gonna mute real quick while I cough. It was a long night camping last night where none of us could sleep yet. None of us wanted to do anything because we didn't want to wake up the other guys, even though we're all awake. And now I'm definitely way, way worse for wear. Um, we also had the bear thesis come out. I posted it just because these guys are insufferable, and you can read it for yourself from, uh, Stuart, uh, sorry, from Stuart Lucky or Lucky Stuart or however he calls himself. But the more interesting thing is this commentary from— who was this? Uh, version Media02. So we have one of SpaceX's partners come out saying that their beams only have 4 megabits per second. Well, we have beams 30 times larger at 120 megabits per beam. And now the important thing to understand with how these beams work is that you share a beam with the other users. And so in rural areas, That 4 megabits per second is shared among a few people. In an urban area, it's shared among many people. So then that speed starts to get kind of unusable, which is the point that the Virgin Media guy was saying. What also matters is how many beams you can create and how small those beams are. AST is capable of creating many beams, I believe 2,800, and they are very tight and they don't have The diameter off the top of my head, but Starlink's, uh, does not have many and they're large, which means you have to share them among many people, which starts to degrade what you can do in that beam and starts to— well, as he puts out, there's service limitations and it really just kind of works in dead zones because in dead zones you have presumably fewer people because it's going to be rural area, rural areas. [00:31:52] Speaker B: Yeah. [00:31:54] Speaker C: But then you start to not really solve the network problem of the future that I believe ASTS is poised to do. So that's why I think that there's going to be this divide between the true infrastructure of the network of the future versus sort of like a hacked-together dead spot solution. And we have— Kevin actually meant to watch this whole interview and I forgot, but we have Kevin out also finding some more detailed information on exactly what I just talked about, where the SpaceX satellites do 40 beams and each can generate 4 megabits per second of data and shared on this big space. And again, ASTS is able to do 120 megabits in its beam and generate way more beams. It's going to be all constrained by the processing capacity of the satellite. And so even though it's capable— satellite ASTS is capable of producing, I believe, again, 2,800 beams— you're not going to fire all those at the same time because you're going to be bandwidth processing constrained, uh, at the satellite level. And that's where things like the ASIC come into play, where you can just have more bandwidth processing capacity. I've always thought about that is really the critical path item, which is a proxy in itself for power generation. So the weird trend is first you had Deutsche Telekom saying that basically SpaceX sucks, and now you have O2 saying kind of the same thing. It's almost like the people who signed up for the system are arriving at the same conclusion and now looking over to see what the other guys can bring to the table. As much as people always thought that there was this going to be this big defection event to SpaceX, it's starting to look like it will go the other way. And imagine the shock to the market if ASTS not only delivers what they said they were going to do, which we all believe is good for some crazy stock price, What happens if SpaceX falls on the sword and it looks like you're really not even going to have that strong of a number 2 competitor because you start to have SpaceX customers start to multi-client with AST SpaceMobile? Think about what happens if that comes to pass. And it's starting to look like it could be a possibility, not a foregone conclusion, but starting to look like it could be a possibility. And it goes back to the first principles by which this system was built. And so let's again go back to Kevin Chen and Orange. Orange shouts out their partnership and says it's an Orange-managed core network. And we've heard in the past, I think it was Telstra in Australia, really complaining about what it's like to work with Starlink because it's Starlink-managed core network. You're having to integrate 2 different networks, which is a beast and annoying versus a first principle approach, which allows the MNOs to retain control. So those first principles I think are going to be the real key difference makers of who wins and who loses. And then you're also starting to see some early signs of the frustration of vendor lock-in. And so Starlink, closed system, is facing backlash as farmers are having their prices doubled on them. What assholes. And so all these guys wired up their John Deere tractors needing massive amounts of data as they go through and have these autonomous combines. And then all of a sudden they get rerated from $150 a month to $500 a month on the commercial tier. Classic Elon. Get you on the hook, give you no alternative, crush you on the price. And then we also have pilots worried about the same thing. I thought, uh, it had that link. Maybe I lost it, but there was another article about pilots complaining about that as well. And so People are gonna see this trend, and that's why the MNOs want a standards-based solution with someone that's less predatory. And the ironic part is SpaceX actually needs the help of others to pursue its gambit. And so right now it can work on the borrowed spectrum of its partners, but as it seeks to implement the EchoStar Spectrum. It needs the chip manufacturers and the modem makers to integrate those radio frequencies. Current phones don't support them. And so it will be really interesting to see how that goes down. Right now, SpaceX is locked out of the garden and reason would stand that they will get integrated, but just how quickly and how cooperative are those players going to be at Letting the wolf into the henhouse. And then you also just have governments continuing to crack down. And so Kenya is reviewing the Starlink partnership because of interference issues. So more of the same. The regulator wants to assess the impact of the deal's interference with mobile phone networks. So rest assured, you can imagine that MNOs are going to be Rightfully upset, but extra loud because of the threat that SpaceX poses when they enter their market. And you can see, if you look at the DD doc and you look at what Katzi posted just in this weekly thread, you can see what the interference issues are on the comparative adjacent channel leakage radio ratio charts. And basically it just goes to whether your beam looks like a big rectangle. With a sharp drop-off on the shoulders, or whether it has these broad sweeping sort of like Mount Kilimanjaro type angles. And that means that across spectrum, not yours, you're interfering and that is bad. So kind of a slow week this week, but even on a slow week after all the stuff we got in the preceding 2 weeks, there's still Some good positive movement. We still continue to see this chasm in the competitive landscape. We're seeing our biggest partners dial us into some of their biggest plans. We're literally seeing the satellite and we're having some clues drop in the regulatory dockets that show that we're inching ahead. And on any given day, we might expect our SES approval. And it's very possible this week, certainly by next week, we're going to have some more visibility on the FM-2 launch because we're going to have New Glenn 3 hot fire or do its static fire. And then once, you know, assuming that's successful, then they'll be able to solidify a launch date, which will be the beginning of hopefully a faster go-forward cadence of more launches. Because now what we've learned is that one of the critical path items was Getting the stacking engineering. So basically how the satellites stack on top of each other, getting that certified and down pat. It's a lot of weight when you're starting to stack 6 to 8 of these satellites. So it's always something as you're doing this for the first time, but once you knock it out, then it's not a delay in the future. And that's always important. We, seem to be moving at an increasingly fast rate in the right direction. So thank you everyone for joining me. I will talk to everyone next week. [00:40:03] Speaker A: Thanks for listening to the AST SpaceMobile Podcast. If you enjoyed this episode and you'd like to help support the podcast, please share it with others, post about it on social media, or leave a rating and review. To catch all the latest news, about AST SpaceMobile, make sure to subscribe. Thanks again, and I'll see you next time. [00:40:24] Speaker B: We're doing something very, very big, and I think with this technology we can really affect a billion lives. AST SpaceMobile is the only company that has proven technology to deliver cellular broadband connectivity directly from space to the everyday smartphone. People will just basically turn on their phone and be seamless regardless of where you are. We don't want the user even to know that it's connected by satellite. Our role is to bring this into reality, always in partnership with the NMO. [00:41:02] Speaker A: Listen. [00:41:10] Speaker B: Waffles. Waffles.
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