Episode
Anpanman - Launch Fever and the Coiled Spring: SpaceMob Takes the Cape
In a solo update ahead of the Sunday, April 19, 2026 New Glenn launch from Cape Canaveral, Anpanman argues that AST SpaceMobile's recent stock weakness is entirely explained by Rakuten's planned sell-down of roughly half its stake, not by any change in fundamentals. He calls it a 'coiled spring' that will release once selling clears.
He previews SpaceMob's Cape Canaveral meetup and an in-depth Bloomberg feature in progress, and reviews regulatory catalysts he believes point to imminent full commercial SCS approval. He closes with a tribute to late community member Steve Larson.
His headline conclusion: nothing has fundamentally changed about the company, so he is buying through the Rakuten-driven dip.
Key Takeaways
- Anpanman attributes ASTS's recent stock decline (down 6% on the day of recording) primarily to Rakuten executing a Rule 10b5-1 automatic selling program through Bank of America, selling up to half of its AST SpaceMobile holdings to bring its stake down to roughly 5%, not to any change in company fundamentals.
- Rakuten's Mickey Mikitani stepped off AST SpaceMobile's board in January 2026 and is no longer in possession of material non-public information, so his company's selling is a scheduled, non-discretionary program rather than an insider signal.
- Anpanman describes this dynamic as a 'coiled spring': once Rakuten's sale is fully digested by the market, he expects the stock to rally, and says he has personally been buying shares during the dip.
- AST SpaceMobile's next commercial satellite launch — using Blue Origin's New Glenn rocket — is scheduled for Sunday morning, April 19, 2026 from Cape Canaveral, with a forecast 90% chance of favorable weather Sunday versus roughly 50% if it slips to Monday.
- SpaceMob community members are converging on Cape Canaveral, staying at the Hyatt and Marriott, with several hundred people invited to the launch viewing event (down from over 1,000 at a prior launch).
- A Bloomberg journalist has been working on an in-depth feature story about the AST SpaceMobile retail investor community since Q4 2025, including interviews and a photo/video session with Anpanman, with a possible placement in Bloomberg Magazine.
- Anpanman believes full commercial regulatory approval (Supplemental Coverage from Space) is in its final stages, citing a housekeeping-style FCC letter about coordinating with the National Science Foundation/radio astronomy community on interference, the completed comment period (which he says closed in October 2025), and FCC Commissioner Carr's recent comments describing direct-to-device as a three-player market.
- Anpanman dismisses recent 'Amazon news' (a competing satellite operator's deal, referenced in the context of a Globalstar transaction) as competitive noise that would take 4-5 years to matter and, if anything, validates the direct-to-device market and expands the total addressable market.
- Anpanman pushes back on social-media 'panic selling' narratives, arguing that Rakuten's sale has been planned and telegraphed since 2025 and is unrelated to any negative company news.
- The episode closes with a tribute to the late Steve Larson, an early ('OG') SpaceMob community member who is buried near Cape Canaveral; Anpanman plans to bring a Dr Pepper (Larson's favorite drink) to the launch in his memory.
Detailed Discussion8 topics
Rakuten Share Sale and Stock Pressure
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The stock is under pressure because Rakuten (via Bank of America executing on its behalf) is running a defined selling program of up to half of its AST SpaceMobile holdings, which will conveniently bring Rakuten's stake down to around 5%; a new Form 4 was expected after market close showing how much was sold.
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Mickey Mikitani stepped off AST SpaceMobile's board in January 2026, so even though he might informally know about the sale, he is not holding material non-public information; this is a 10b5-1 automatic selling plan, not discretionary insider trading.
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Drawing on his banking/hedge-fund background, Anpanman describes a predictable pattern with large sellers: the stock gets 'cleaned up' as the seller works through their shares, and once they are close to done (he estimates Rakuten had about 2-3 of several tranches left), the stock tends to start ramping up again — the 'coiled spring' he keeps referencing.
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He says the stock would probably be around $110-$120 heading into this launch if the Amazon-related news hadn't come out and if Rakuten weren't selling, but is not upset about the current pressure and considers it a normal part of owning the stock.
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He personally has been buying shares daily during the dip, characterizing his daily buys as a tiny fraction of his overall position, and declined to disclose his exact position size.
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Rakuten needs the cash: it must turn around its core mobile business (requiring more capex), and Bloomberg reported in March 2026 that Rakuten needs to monetize up to half of its AST SpaceMobile stake and likely also needs to spin off or reorganize its fintech business.
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He argues the stock being down about 6% on the day is 'peanuts' compared to the 10-20% single-day swings (and 50-60% up days) long-time AST SpaceMobile holders have already lived through.
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In response to a listener question about whether Rakuten tipped off AST management to delay positive news, Anpanman says he doesn't think so — Rakuten no longer sits on the board, though it may have given AST an informal heads-up — and he doesn't believe the company would withhold good news because of Rakuten's trading, though it may be mindful of timing; possible news post-launch.
Launch Logistics and Community Meetup at Cape Canaveral
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Launch is scheduled for Sunday morning at Cape Canaveral; SpaceMob members are flying down and staying at the Hyatt and Marriott, with a bus departing early Sunday morning to reach the viewing site.
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Weather forecasts show a 90% chance of favorable conditions for Sunday's launch versus roughly 50% if Blue Origin scrubs to Monday; a scrub is possible since 'this is Blue Origin' and vehicles sometimes aren't ready.
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This will be his first time seeing a Blue Origin New Glenn launch in person, after having attended two prior Falcon 9 launches (BlueWalker 3 and the five Block 1 BlueBirds); he expects it to be 'next level.'
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Unlike the prior two Falcon 9 launches, where the booster landed nearby and attendees heard the sonic boom and saw the landing live, New Glenn's booster (referred to as landing on the droneship 'Jacklyn') will land out in the ocean, so attendees will likely only get a video feed of that.
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He estimates this launch event invited several hundred attendees, down from an estimated 1,000+ at a previous launch event.
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He notes AST SpaceMobile has raised $4 billion and jokes he hopes there will be memorabilia handed out at the event, while acknowledging he's not saying the company should spend money on it.
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A Bloomberg photographer who visited his home turned out to be Indian and, upon recognizing his LVM3 and PSLV rocket models, told him that the December BlueBird 6/FM1 launch on ISRO's LVM3 was a major source of national pride in India and widely followed there.
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He reminds listeners that BlueBird 6 (FM1) was already successfully launched and deployed at the end of last year, pushing back on social-media claims that 'the company hasn't launched anything.'
Bloomberg Media Coverage
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A Bloomberg journalist has been working on a feature article about the SpaceMob community since roughly Q4 2025, having interviewed a number of SpaceMob members; Anpanman doesn't know how the piece will portray the community but expects humor and 'lore.'
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He met with a Bloomberg photographer and took (hopefully anonymous-looking) photos that will appear in the article, which he believes may run in Bloomberg Magazine, making it more in-depth; a photographer may also attend the Hyatt Sunday night to photograph other SpaceMob members who consent.
Regulatory Catalysts and Path to Full Commercial Approval
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AST submitted a letter to the FCC (on the day of recording) about coordinating with the National Science Foundation and what he believes is a radio telescope association regarding interference; he characterizes this as 'housekeeping' — one of the last steps before full commercial approval.
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FCC Chairman/Commissioner Carr recently described the direct-to-device market as a three-player market, which Anpanman reads as a signal that approval is coming soon.
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Responding to a listener who argued that, based on the SpaceX Starlink approval timeline, full SCS approval is still about 6 months away, Anpanman disagreed, stating the comment period had already concluded (he believes in October 2025) and that back-and-forth in the docket between AST, AT&T, Verizon, FirstNet and the FCC suggests approval is in its 'final strokes.'
Satellite Shipment and Manufacturing Cadence
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He reminds listeners the next batch of satellites is nearing readiness for shipment, noting it's mid-April and shipment should happen soon.
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He reiterates later that the next satellite batch shipment is expected 'in the next week or two.'
Competitive Landscape: Amazon/Globalstar, Iridium, Viasat, Rocket Lab, Firefly
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Recent 'Amazon news' is contributing to stock pressure, but Anpanman calls it noise that likely won't impact AST SpaceMobile for 4-5 years unless Amazon does additional deals; he frames it as validating the direct-to-device market and expanding the addressable market rather than being purely negative.
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He speculates that a Globalstar-related deal (implied to involve Amazon) would likely close sometime in Q2 of next year, reasoning that acquirers typically complete one deal (avoiding messiness or antitrust risk) before announcing another — implying any further Amazon deal (e.g., involving Iridium or Viasat) would wait until after that closing.
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He describes a trading correlation ('pair trade') between AST SpaceMobile and Rocket Lab stock, where the two tend to move together, and notes that when the price gap between them narrows or widens too far, traders rotate between the two names.
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He dismisses a small, vocal subset of Rocket Lab investors who compare Rocket Lab favorably to AST SpaceMobile (e.g., on delays, comparing to Rocket Lab's Neutron program) as making an unfair, 'stupid' comparison between unrelated businesses.
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He references a meme he made about toxic Rocket Lab holders shifting their criticism toward Firefly (another space company that some in his circle, including Michael Scand, are long) once Firefly's stock rebounded as part of a broader 'SpaceX IPO trade' rally across space names.
Investor Psychology and Social Media 'Brain Rot'
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He mocks social-media 'panickins' (panicking posters) on Twitter and Reddit, saying sentiment has cratered simply because 'nothing changes sentiment like price,' citing a tweet from an account he calls Cut Capital.
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He calls out a poster ('Sasso') claiming Rakuten is 'panic selling,' countering that Rakuten's need to monetize its stake and fix its balance sheet has been telegraphed since 2025, making it a planned sale rather than panic.
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He argues that daily Twitter use is 'the height of brain rot' and can subtly shift a person's views (using his own perceived drift toward more conservative views as an example), and warns against 'doom maxer' rhetoric such as predictions of imminent market crashes or war, which he says have repeatedly failed to materialize.
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His closing advice: if a friend is panicking about the stock while the broader market is up, ask them to explain why they originally invested — reconnecting with those reasons should make them feel better.
Tribute to Steve Larson
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Anpanman will bring a Dr Pepper to the launch in memory of Steve Larson, an OG SpaceMob community member who is buried overlooking Cape Canaveral and whose favorite drink was Dr Pepper.
Watch Items6
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Blue Origin New Glenn launch of the next BlueBird satellite batch from Cape Canaveral
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Full commercial SCS/direct-to-device regulatory approval
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Next batch of satellites shipped ahead of the following launch
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Bloomberg feature article on the SpaceMob community
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Rakuten's share-sale program clearing (Form 4 disclosures)
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Amazon-related Globalstar deal closing
Open Questions5
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Will Rakuten's selling program fully clear soon, and will the stock then rally as Anpanman expects once the technical pressure lifts?
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Will the New Glenn launch actually occur Sunday morning as scheduled, or will weather/vehicle readiness push it to Monday (or later)?
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Is full commercial SCS approval truly imminent (Anpanman's view), or is the longer ~6-month Starlink-timeline-based estimate raised by a listener more accurate?
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Did Rakuten give AST SpaceMobile management informal advance notice of its selling program, and is the company timing news releases around it?
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Will Amazon's competitive moves (the Globalstar-related deal, and potential future deals with Iridium or Viasat) meaningfully affect AST SpaceMobile's competitive position or market size over time?
Raw Transcript
Show full transcript
[00:00:06] Speaker A: This is the AST SpaceMobile Podcast. It will just basically come to your phone and be seamless regardless of where you are. We don't want the user even to know that it's connected by satellite. Listen, the opportunity that we have is very, very, very large. [00:00:27] Speaker B: Hey everyone, thanks for joining. I figured I'd do one more space before this weekend. What a tremendous time to celebrate. I know that some people obviously are not feeling too hot with the stock price performance, but just take comfort that this is temporary. You know, in my many years of working in banking and on the hedge fund side, Whenever you have a big seller come to market and whether it's a marketed offering or an overnight block, or they sell like they are right now, it's going to take some time for it to get digested, right? And cleaned up. And so we'll see probably after the close of day, a new Form 4 showing how much Rakuten sold. But, you know, it's a defined period of time where, or not period of time, but defined number of shares that they're going to sell, which is up to half of their holdings. Which will conveniently get them to, you know, around 5%. As I mentioned before, Mickey Mikitani stepped off the board in January, so he's not in, you know, he's not holding any material non-public information. That, putting that aside, it is a 10 plan. So even if he did have information, this is just an automatic selling program on behalf that Bank of America is executing, although they're doing a pretty shit job. But But, you know, they're doing a shit job and I'm able to buy shares for reasonably reasonable levels. And, you know, capital markets desks from hedge funds, they typically will participate in offerings if they see something like this. They might go short the stock and then they'll cover and then they'll go long and trade the technicals, which, you know, once these guys get close to done to selling, you know, if they've got Half of their shares to sell, which is call it $14, $15 million. Once they're done, when you start getting towards the end of that, which is, you know, maybe the last 2 or 3, and people can see light at the end of the tunnel and it's going to get cleaned up, then you're going to see the stock start ramping up. And then, yeah, that's what I referred to earlier, which is the spring is getting coiled. But yeah, launch is here. I've— I'm going to replay some of the favorite videos over the weekend. To get people pumped up. But yeah, we've got launch scheduled for Sunday morning. And so a number of us will be heading, flying down to Cape and some of us are staying at Hyatt and others at the Marriott. And so I think people are going to be meeting up at the bar. Don't drink too much. Don't stay up too late because we're going to have to hop onto a bus early Sunday morning in order to make it out to the Cape and see launch, which is scheduled for early, early morning. Now there is a chance, um, I think the weather reports say that there's a 90% chance of good weather, that it's going to, you know, it's going to be, um, supportive of a launch. But then of course, you know, this is Blue Origin. Some things may, may not go right or they just don't feel comfortable and they might scrub it and then they might try it for Monday, which Monday, I believe the weather is supposed to be like 50% favorable. So, um, the odds are good. or Sunday. And, um, but, you know, if they, if they do push us back, then, you know, it's just kind of normal course of business. Um, which would be a bummer because I'm, I'm going to be there, um, Saturday evening and then going Sunday morning, and then, uh, I'm out of— I'm gonna— I'm flying back to New York, um, early afternoon on Sunday. So I'm hoping that this is going to happen. But, um, but yeah, I just wanted to You know, fire up a space and just it's it's quite comical. Like just seeing people posting on Twitter, and I know it's like just a cross section of folks. Most people are pretty calm, especially those who've held stock for many years or whatever period. But I haven't even looked at Reddit. I heard Reddit's like pretty bad. And so I think we've achieved the kook bottom. Although kook has been quiet, I think he's trying to. Tidy up everything before he hops on the flight out to Florida. But we did get a spotting today. Cut Capital finally pressed the button. Last time he did this was February 6th, but he finally tweeted today, nothing changes sentiment like price, which is absolutely true. You know, it's funny because like the stock was at $110 or $120, which I'd argue if the Amazon news hadn't come out, if Mickey decided not to sell at this point in time, or not, not decided to sell, that, that's actually in Bank of America's hands. They're selling on his behalf, uh, and for Rakuten. Um, then I think the stock would probably be like at $110, $120, um, heading into launch. But here we are. And, um, am I upset about that? No. Uh, this is just part of owning shares in this company. Like, it's, um, I know it was, uh, some people are frustrated that the market has rallied and we've been left behind. Well, it's the The spring has been coiled, right? And so when Rakuten's done selling, there's a number of positive catalysts that are coming right around the corner in addition to launch this coming Sunday. But, you know, today, for example, we saw that AST submitted a letter to the FCC, which seems like housekeeping at this point, that they're planning to coordinate with National Science Foundation. And I think it's the Radio Telescope Association or something, but around interference. But these are kind of the last crossing T's and dotting I's before full commercial approval, which I think is very soon. And as Chairman Carr mentioned this past week when he discussed the direct-to-device market being a 3-player market, it's clear in his mind that approval is coming. So yeah, we've got a lot of catalysts that are coming up. And so for me, you know, today and/or last few days, just knowing the Amazon, you know, deals is noise. And then of course, you know, Rakuten selling, which that will be, that's transitory, that will ultimately get done. I've been buying and, you know, there are some people making jokes. I, someone was like, well, what if you sold 10,000 shares and then you're just buying all back? I guess I just remind people, like, this is a fraction. Like, the daily buys that I'm making right now is a tiny, tiny percentage of my position. Someone had asked, like, are you going to disclose your position? I typically don't do that, but as I've mentioned, there is an article that's being worked on by Bloomberg. It's been in the process for several months. actually going back to the 4th quarter. And so this particular journalist has talked to a number of Space Mob folks. They found the whole story very interesting. And so I have no idea like how that article's going to come out or how it's going to portray us. Maybe we'll be indeed the clueless cult that Tim Ferriss claims for us to be. But I'm looking forward to it because I know there's going to be elements of humor in there. and lore, which is going to be pretty fun. And I think, you know, for Bloomberg to run an article like that, good, bad, whatever, any attention is good, right? And so I was telling some people today that I actually met up with a reporter, or sorry, a photographer from Bloomberg and took what I hope are anonymous-looking pictures, but they're going to be in this article. And then I'm coordinating with Bloomberg Around potential meetups for Space Mob. And so I told them that if they do end up taking pictures of folks, just to make sure whoever's in them, that they're okay with it, which I think there might be a photographer that could show up at the Hyatt Sunday night. So if you are interested in getting your photo taken or an article on Bloomberg, and I think this article may end up in the Bloomberg Magazine as well, which means like it's going to be pretty in-depth, then Yeah, show up to the Hyatt Saturday night and then to the extent people are okay with it, I might, if folks are going to like wall files, I'll direct them towards those areas. But yeah, man, it's an exciting time and I'm looking forward to it. There's nothing quite like a launch. And originally I had like, if it was going to happen earlier this week, I wouldn't be able to go. And then during the week it's just tough because there's a lot going on. With the family in terms of school and shuffling kids around and all that stuff. But so I kind of like brushed it off. I was like, eh, you know what? I'm not going to be able to go. It's, I'll wait for the next batch launch, which by the way, I think that next batch in terms of being ready for shipment, just a reminder that, you know, we're in the middle of April and it's going to be happening soon. But yeah, I was kind of, you know, downplaying it. And coming up with reasons why it was okay, it would be okay to miss this, right? And then, of course, when I saw that hot fire, I started getting like, you know, I started feeling feeling it in in my plums, like just feeling it that you know that sensation of being part of something very special, right? And then, of course, when I saw the invite go out, I immediately, you know, my I was out somewhere. I immediately texted my wife and I was like, "Hey, you know what? Actually." I want to go to this thing. And she immediately was like, I understand. And I looked at her schedule and because it's Sunday morning, it happens to be at a reasonable time and day where, you know, we, I have some obligations, but I can, you know, I got a friend to take our son to this one event and then my wife is going to take our daughter to this other thing. And so I'm covered. And so of course when I saw the invite, I was like, how can I miss this? I can't miss this. You know, I've gone to every single launch except for Of course, the ISRO launch. And by the way, like this Bloomberg photographer who came today to my house and then also, you know, we were at out in the park. She is, you know, she's Indian and she was born and raised there. And, you know, obviously just to get to know each other, we were just talking and I, you know, I talked to her about the company and she like, you know, she was interested and took photos. And then when she saw my model of the LVM-3, she's like, oh, that's an ISRO rocket. And then she saw the PSLV that I have too. And then it clicked for her. She's like, oh my gosh, this is AST SpaceMobile. Like everybody in India, it was like such a high-profile event. Everybody knows about this company and the launch. And that just, that made me feel Yeah, I was like tickled by that, right? Because it's one thing to like see news and folks talking about how it was a seminal watershed event for India, like a source of national pride that they were putting up an important US commercial satellite. And putting that aside, it's actually a US commercial satellite that's being used by SDA and Department of Defense. Like it's beyond just like for commercial use, right? That's FM1 or Bluebird 6, which by the way, like I think some people may have forgotten that we did launch Bluebird 6 in December. Because I saw some of these people are crashing out on Twitter. They're like, oh, the company hasn't launched anything. It's like, wait, you know, like we did launch a satellite at the end of last year and it was deployed successfully. But yeah, that was a pretty cool moment where this lady told me, she's like, oh yeah, I know LVMH and I, and, you know, my family, everybody was paying attention to that launch, which I thought was pretty cool. But yeah, that launch was great to watch. But now we get to see, you know, this new vehicle, which is Blue Origin New Glenn. You know, I've seen 2 Falcon 9 launches in person for Walker 3 and the 5 Block 1 satellites. And, and I think this is going to be next level, right? Um, Blue Origin, it's going to be amazing to see this launch. And, um, I'm not sure like how far out the booster landing is going to be and if we're going to— we're going to be able to catch it. But, um, if you haven't been to one of these events, you go to this, um, this, this area that's very close to the water. It's as close as you can get to all the launch pads out there. And, um, they have these bleachers and you just sit out there and there's a guy who who emcees these things. Um, you know, he, he is out there, uh, and he's, you know, he's a, he's a experienced hand, and he talks about the, the mission and the launch, uh, the satellite, and then he walks you through the entire thing. And so, um, there, there are monitors there too. And so the last time, uh, the last 2 Falcon 9 launches were pretty cool because, um, after the launches happened, um, then the booster returns, and we were able to see Fortunately, both of those launches had the boosters return right nearby. And so we got to like hear the sonic boom and then of course the booster landing. And that, but this time, of course, you know, it's going to be the boosters for New Glenn 3 is going to be landing somewhere out in the ocean on Jacqueline. And so we'll probably get a video feed of that happening, which is going to be amazing, right? [00:14:10] Speaker A: Yeah. [00:14:12] Speaker B: But yeah, this is going to be an exciting time. I'm sure there's going to be a lot of Blue Origin folks there as well. So that'll be fun. I believe I heard there's, you know, this invite went out in a very short period of time. I think in the previous launch, there were a few, I'm guessing, just looking at, trying to remember, like there was probably well over 1,000 attendees, whereas I think this time there's several hundred. There could be more depending on, you know, how many, how much of the invites get filled up. But yeah, I'm looking forward to it. I know, as I said before, people are meeting at the Hyatt to hang out and I'm coming in late, but I'm going to hang out as much as I can and try to get some sleep. I don't know if you've ever experienced like not taking a big test, but like if you had some, I don't know, crazy performance the next morning or or something exciting happened and you don't really get good sleep. Like, that's, that's usually what happens ahead of these things. I remember, I think I took like, I think I took a sleeping pill or cough syrup or something last time just to make sure I got some, some amount of sleep. But, um, but yeah, it's, it's, uh, it's gonna be pretty special. And I, I think, you know, the company has done a great job in the past, and I'm not sure how much they are, um, prepping for this one. I don't know if it's going to be as big of an event 'cause it's the Block.one launch. But my assumption is that it's going to be pretty good. They've raised $4 billion. I'm not saying that they should spend money on events, but hopefully it'll be like fun and there'll be some memorabilia there that they're handing out. But yeah, I'm totally looking forward to it. And I guess the other thing I wanted to talk about is some of the, and this is not the dark side, but it's just kind of I guess funny. It's like, um, there's all these, these, these panickins, um, who are crashing out on Twitter and, and Reddit. And so, um, yeah, it's, it, it is interesting, the, the human psychology of, um, you know, the stock is obviously, it's down, let's see, what is it, 6% today, which, um, for the old hands in AST SpaceMobile who, you know, for the people who went through like 10, 15, 20% downswing days. Of course, you know, sometimes up 50, 60% too. This is like peanuts, right? And so, and it's not as if like there's some boogeyman that we don't know, like, oh my gosh, someone knows something and they're selling. It's like, oh, it's Rakuten. So over there, you know, Miki Mikitani stepped off the board. He's got to turn around the company. They're going to be plowing way more CapEx into the mobile business. Bloomberg highlighted this back in March, and of course the company has talked about this in 2025. But they need to, they're going to need to monetize, you know, up to half of their HD Space Mobile stake. They're going to, I think, reorganize their fintech business. I haven't dug much into that, but I think they probably have to spin that thing off. But yeah, like they're, they need money, simple as that. And so the great thing is like, you know how much they're going to sell potentially and to Generally speaking, given how much volume we trade every day, like they should be, they should get cleaned up pretty, pretty soon. And so for me it's like, wow, that's a great setup. So there's, I know where the pressure of the stock is coming from. It's been primarily Rakuten and of course like this Amazon news, which, you know, I've gone through in detail. You know, that's not going to impact the stock for 4 or 5 years maybe. I don't know, unless Amazon goes out and like does more deals, which it could, But in all these situations, by the way, for people who are like, oh my gosh, like I think Iridium and ViaSat, like these deals are going to happen. One thing you don't want to do as an acquirer entering into a market, you don't want to announce multiple deals and go through the regulatory review at the same time. You actually want to do a deal, get it done, make sure it's done and it's not messy or dirty, and then you move on to the next deal. And so for this Globalstar deal, you're probably looking at a closing of that deal sometime in Q2 of next year. And then maybe Amazon will have the ability to go out and announce another deal. But what you don't do is when you're in antitrust review and FCC regulatory review, you don't complicate things by announcing another deal. and just making things either, you know, it's going to take longer, but also, you know, you also risk the potential of having one of those deals fail because of maybe there's some anti-competitive issues. But yeah, so we got that. And then of course Rakuten is selling and there's some pressure. So it is interesting, I guess, you know, from a psychological standpoint where you've got people who, you know, when stock is in the 90s and they're really bullish and, you know, the company's the best thing since sliced bread. And then the stock, because of this insider who, well, they're not insider anymore because they left the board, but they have to sell stock and clean up their balance sheet and it's caused pressure on the stock. All of a sudden your good feelings about the company Like a week or 2 weeks ago gets evaporated, right? And now you're like calling for the heads of management and they could have done all these things better. And it's like, dude, just like take a step back and take stock of what you're doing and what you're writing on Twitter or whatever it is, right? Like nothing has changed. Like the launch is happening. Amazon news, like it is what it is. It, you know, For any all host of reasons, like it's validated the market and you know it's it's introduced like a potential another player. But you know it's also expanding the TAM, like all that stuff, right? And then you know Rakuten selling stock. But has it has anything fundamentally changed about the company? [00:20:14] Speaker A: No. [00:20:15] Speaker B: Has the stock been under pressure and is it frustrating that the market has gone up and the stock has languished? Sure, but. when I was an event-driven portfolio manager, this is the type of event you would be like, okay, you know what, perhaps like somebody shorted on the front end of it, but then this is also a great trade once the selling gets done, right? Because once it's cleaned up, then the stock should rally. And so yeah, it's, I think people, and by the way, like there's on Twitter, there's also people who are like reaching out to like Kevin Mack and others and it's like, oh, what do you think of this? And I can tell you like Kevin Mack's going to say, oh, Rakuten selling, there's technical pressure on the stock, but once they're done, the stock should recover, right? Like nothing has changed there. I'd be, I guess I'd be curious to hear what he thinks about Amazon, but I don't know if he's in the weeds as much as the rest of us on the competitive side. But I'm sure he'll have something to say as he always does. But yeah, I think it is funny, like there's all these people who've come out of the woodwork and like some of the— there's a very small subset of Rocket Lab investors. And by the way, there's a small subset of AST holders too who are toxic and for whatever reason they try to compare the 2 companies. And so that small subset of toxic people have come out and be like, hey, look, Rocket Lab stock price is higher or it's getting close. And they're trying to make that comparison. Which is pretty stupid. But there is one thing that is interesting related to that, which is the companies do trade on top of one another. And so as, you know, these anointed leaders of new space, they do trade similarly. And so when one is down, the other one kind of trades down. When one is up, the other trades up. And there is a pair, there is some correlation between the two. Like when Rocket Lab gets pretty close to AST, then usually if you were to actually trade this pair, You would sell Rocket Lab and you'd go long AST because then that gap would widen again. And then when it gets too wide, you would sell AST and you would go long Rocket Lab, and then the gap would narrow. How long that relationship will hold, who knows? It's not a pair that I trade, but some people have pointed that out and I've pointed it out as well. But it is kind of funny, like some of these These folks who've come out and said, oh, I knew it. AST, like their management, they're not transparent. They're doing this, they're doing that. I trust Rocket Lab more. And then I think someone had pointed out to this one person who was posting that, you know, this person said AST misses deadlines. And then the person asked, well, what happened to Neutron? And then they like came up with all these reasons why their delays are better, which the whole argument is just kind of stupid. I actually had put together like a funny meme for some of these people who for a period of time, they got distracted by Firefly. Like there's a whole group and there's some people I respect, like Michael Scand, he's long Firefly and there's a few others. And by the way, like that's been a great trade. They called the bottom on that and Firefly has quickly rebounded and it's You know, it's part of this like SpaceX IPO trade where all these names have rallied, right? Even the questionable ones. And I'm not saying Firefly's questionable. They've got what appears to be like a great lunar program in terms of their rocket history. You know, they've still got work to do, but you know, maybe they'll eventually get there. But you know, when Firefly started rallying, then you had like some of the small group of Rocket Lab holders come out and just start shitting all over it, right? And I did, I put together this little meme of the 2 girls in the middle that were fighting, and it's like the toxic Rocket Lab guys and then the Firefly guys, which, you know, I guess some of those Firefly guys like baited them to a degree. And then like the guy, of course, in the corner is the boy who's like smoking from a bong, and that's like space mob where they're enjoying The fact that the toxic Rocket Lab guys have like focused their efforts elsewhere on a company that actually is comparable in terms of what they're doing versus you know coming after ST, which has nothing to do with what the business that Rocket Lab's in. But anyway, but yeah, it's just kind of funny to see market psychology play out where people you know I think some. Some folks shouldn't be on Twitter perhaps, because like, I think, you know, overall, by the way, like, and Kuka and I have talked about this too. I think Twitter, if you're looking at it daily, it is the height of brain rot and you have to recognize it for what it is. And it's very addictive, right? Like there's outside of the stuff that you want, which is like financial news, investing, maybe it's related to AST or a few other companies that you're following. Outside of it, there's a whole bunch of just absolute garbage and it's a cesspool, right? And I told someone this the other day, like, I'm pretty much like a, I guess I would say I was more of a liberal before and then I'm kind of, but I'm very much like in the center. You know, being in New York, it's hard not to be somewhat more liberal. And I've always lived in like cities that are more liberal than and conservative. Um, but after being on Twitter for how many ever years, it's like, oh my gosh, I'm becoming a racist and more conservative and xenophobic and all this stuff. And, and I have to catch myself, right? And, and it's funny because like I, I'll have conversations in New York with people and I'll just be there and be like, wow, this person's really liberal or really progressive. Um, versus perhaps like a few years ago, I might have agreed with some of what they're saying, but Twitter is pretty powerful. It's like mind control, right? And so I think it's important, and this goes for— the reason why I'm bringing this up is that it's extreme, right? Like when you had all these doom maxers 2, 3 weeks ago, 4 weeks ago, oh, we're going to war and it's like World War III. And there's no way that that Iran and the US will come to some peace, you know, peaceful resolution. And there's going to be a market crash. Like I heard there was a market crash that was going to be this Monday. There was a market crash the next last Monday and the Monday before and the Monday before. And if you're not like, if you don't have mental strength or can recognize the baiting and the rage posting for what it is, then I guess you can kind of fall into the trap of this stuff, right? And that's where Like some of the— I joke about these panikins, but these people who are either truly panicking or they're writing stuff for engagement, like there's this guy Sasso, you know, saying like, oh my gosh, Rocket is panic selling. No, dumbass. They've been outlining their need to monetize and monetize, you know, their AST space mobile stake and fix their balance sheet. You know, they've been talking about righting the ship in 2025, and of course Mickey left the board in January, and then of course now they're selling. It's not panic selling, like it's been planned, right? And so I think, yeah, you just gotta be careful, like following some of these people and not letting it get to you. And that's, you know, it goes beyond just like the investing stuff. It's like the political stuff, violence. I mean, there's all kinds of just garbage. And on the one hand, like X is pretty useful. Like it can, you can get news pretty fast and you can get some, you know, some opinions that perhaps aren't in mainstream media or analysis, which is good. But then I think we all learned during this Iran conflict, like a lot of it is propaganda. just people making up shit or AI slop. And so you got to be careful, right? But anyway, I'll stop. I'll step off the soapbox and yeah, I'm looking forward to this weekend. I know a number of you are like packing and are going to be heading out either today or tomorrow, but yeah, it's going to be special. And I think one of the fun things about being an investor in this company is that you get to, you have these events where you get to meet people and the company, what it's, you know, when I was talking to this Bloomberg photographer, the company's doing something truly game-changing and amazing, right? And you get to be part of that journey, which for me, it's been since 2020, the 4th quarter of 2020. So it's been a long time and I've, yeah, I've got a lot of memories and built a lot of great relationships, friendships over the years. And so, you know, when my wife, when I told her, she was like fully supportive. She's like, I understand you got to go down there. It's important. And when I do these Spaces and she's got to deal with other stuff, she understands. So Anyway, yeah, that's kind of, I think what I had. Actually, I'm going to look at the comments here and see if there's good comments. Oh, by the way, like when you're down there, be sure to, I'm going to bring a Dr Pepper to the launch for, in memory of our friend Steve Larison. For those that don't know, he was like one of their OG Space Mob members and he's actually buried down there overlooking overlooking Cape Canaveral. So he'll be watching with us. And his favorite drink, uh, was a Dr Pepper. I actually loved Dr Pepper growing up. Um, and so, um, that, that immediately, when I learned about that, about Steve, uh, immediately, um, put him in good light with me. Let's see, someone's asking, does wind affect launches? Monday looks windy, Sunday looks perfect. Uh, yeah, Sunday does look perfect. That's why I think, um, In regards to the weather, they're saying that Monday, or sorry, Sunday is the best time to launch. Monday is like 50/50, Sunday's like 90%. So yeah, wind does matter as long as it's not a hurricane or something crazy. It would be good if there's no wind. Let's see. I know you weren't staying on, but it would be cool for AST to livestream from the event. I think he's talking— you're— let's see, Ashley, I think you're talking about me. I guess I could do that, but then AST is going to be having a live stream with a lot more cool information. And, you know, just like the ISRO launch or Block 1 or a BlueWalker 3 launch, I think they're going to be sharing some cool videos. Probably my guess is, and this is just me speculating, they're probably going to show some videos of perhaps like the composite satellites being produced or some of that stuff. So I don't know if streaming would be good, but I mean, maybe I'll do a space here or there. But yeah, let's see. Someone's saying, hi, Npan, based on SpaceX Starlink timeline, it looks like we are still 6 months away from full SES approval. No, I disagree with that. I think we already finished the comment period in October, and so we are, we, you know, the approval's imminent. In looking at the back and forth between the docket between the company, AT&T, Verizon, FirstNet, and the FCC, I think we're in the final strokes. Let's see. Question, could it be that Rakuten told AST management about the upcoming sale to postpone any positive catalyst news? Thank you for what you do for SafeMob. I don't think so. Rakuten doesn't sit on the board anymore. They might have given AST a heads up and said, hey, we need to do this. And so we're just going to let you know. I don't think the company is going to hold back good news based off of what Rakuten is doing trading-wise, but they're going to be cognizant of it, right? And so if they know that selling's happening right now. Maybe post-launch there'll be some news. We'll see. But we do know, of course, that the first batch shipment is going to happen in the next week or two. And then there's a number of other things that are in the works. So I don't think this depression of the stock price is going to last long, which is why I'm buying. If I didn't think that, I wouldn't be buying. Let's see. All right, so that those are I guess some of the comments that I that I see now. So I'm going to end the space here and yeah, looking forward to seeing everyone. And yeah, if you have a friend that's panicking because the stock price is down and the market is up, just just ask them to tell you why they're invested. And when they tell you the reasons why they're invested. they'll feel better about themselves. Um, but anyway, I'll end there. And, um, yeah, I'll see everyone in the Cape. And yeah, uh, looking forward to having a beer. Take care, everybody. [00:34:04] Speaker A: Thanks for listening to the AST Space Orbit podcast. If you enjoyed this episode and you'd like to help support the podcast, please share it with others, post about it on social media, or leave a rating and review. To catch all the latest news about AST SpaceMobile, make sure to subscribe. Thanks again, and I'll see you next time. We're doing something very, very big, and I think with this technology, we can really affect a billion lives. AST SpaceMobile is the only company that has proven technology to deliver cellular broadband connectivity directly from space to the end user. People will just basically turn on their phone and be seamless regardless of where you are. We don't want the user even to know that it's connected by satellite. Our role is to bring this into reality, always in partnership with the MNOs. [00:35:00] Speaker B: Listen. Mmm, waffles. [00:35:08] Speaker A: Mmm, waffles.
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