Episode
The Return of the King: Chris Sambar Joins T-Mobile and What It Means for AST SpaceMobile
In a solo X Spaces episode recorded after a broadly risk-off market day, Anpanman covers two AST SpaceMobile developments.
The first is a disclosed 10 bits/hertz spectral efficiency figure from the Satellite Connect Europe conference. The second is the hiring of former AT&T network president Chris Sambar as T-Mobile's new Chief Enterprise Officer.
Anpanman's headline conclusion is that Sambar's hire, combined with Mike Katz's simultaneous departure, the ending of T-Mobile's Starlink exclusivity in July, and the AT&T/Verizon/T-Mobile carrier joint venture, together signal that T-Mobile is quietly repositioning to work with AST SpaceMobile rather than Starlink, even though the market has not yet priced this in.
Key Takeaways
- Anpanman hosted this AST SpaceMobile Podcast episode solo (no Kook) on a day when broad markets sold off due to deleveraging in Korean memory stocks and news out of Iran.
- The Satellite Connect Europe conference disclosed that AST SpaceMobile achieved 10 bits per second per hertz of spectral efficiency, roughly 3x the ~3 bits/hertz figure the company had previously touted, with a stated roadmap potentially reaching up to 11x improvement.
- Chris Sambar, former President of Network at AT&T, architect of FirstNet, and a former AST SpaceMobile board member who personally built AT&T's original partnership with AST, has been hired by T-Mobile as its new Chief Enterprise Officer.
- Sambar spent roughly two years as COO of Public Storage between leaving AT&T and joining T-Mobile, which Anpanman speculates corresponds to serving out a non-compete from AT&T.
- Sambar met AST founder Abel Avellan around 2017 while building out FirstNet, is a personal friend of Avellan, and Anpanman argues his hire is a strong signal that T-Mobile intends to work with AST SpaceMobile rather than Starlink.
- T-Mobile's Starlink Direct-to-Cell exclusivity is set to end in July, and Mike Katz — T-Mobile's Chief Business and Product Officer for ~20 years and the executive Anpanman says architected the Starlink/T-Satellite relationship — announced his departure in the same press release as Sambar's hiring.
- Anpanman disputes analyst Tim Farrar's take that the AT&T/Verizon/T-Mobile joint venture (announced in May) was formed mainly to gain negotiating leverage over Starlink, arguing instead it exists to bring T-Mobile into AST SpaceMobile's platform.
- Grain Management acquired 600 MHz spectrum and swapped it with T-Mobile for 800 MHz spectrum (paying T-Mobile roughly $2.9 billion in cash for the uneven trade), and that 800 MHz spectrum sits directly adjacent to AT&T's and Verizon's 850 MHz band leased to AST SpaceMobile.
- Anpanman speculates the Grain 800 MHz spectrum will eventually be folded into the AT&T/Verizon/T-Mobile joint venture alongside AST's existing leased spectrum, with shared gateway infrastructure across the US, Alaska, Canada and US territories.
Detailed Discussion8 topics
Market context
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Anpanman opened by acknowledging a 'pretty brutal' trading day where every sector was under pressure, attributing the risk-off tape to deleveraging in Korea (tied to a mania in memory-chip companies) compounded by news out of Iran.
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Despite the broader risk-off environment, Anpanman said there were two pieces of genuinely positive AST SpaceMobile news that day that he believed the market hadn't yet processed.
10 bits/hertz spectral efficiency disclosure
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Satellite Connect Europe released performance metrics showing AST SpaceMobile achieved 10 bits per second per hertz of spectral efficiency, a figure Anpanman said surprised even close followers of the technology.
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Anpanman framed the 10 bits/hertz result as approximately 3x the roughly 3 bits/hertz spectral efficiency the company had previously touted, consistent with what CEO Abel Avellan has discussed, with the broader roadmap potentially reaching up to 11x performance enhancement.
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Anpanman predicted that once research analysts fully digest what the spectral efficiency figure means for broadband speeds across the constellation, the market's view of AST's competitive differentiation will shift dramatically.
Chris Sambar hired by T-Mobile as Chief Enterprise Officer
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After market close, Anpanman saw a press release that Chris Sambar — former President of Network at AT&T, responsible for FirstNet and for architecting/building out AT&T's 5G network — is joining T-Mobile.
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Anpanman speculated Sambar's career at AT&T had a ceiling because John Stankey was recently appointed CEO and is likely to hold that seat for a long time, making it a natural point for Sambar to move on.
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Between AT&T and T-Mobile, Sambar spent close to two years (full two years as of this coming October) as Chief Operating Officer of Public Storage; Anpanman guessed this period served out a non-compete of roughly 1.5 to 2 years from AT&T while still drawing a paycheck.
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The T-Mobile press release states Sambar is tasked with strengthening T-Mobile's strategy to disrupt and expand into industries beyond core wireless, including enterprise, IoT and 6G, while redefining the customer experience in the enterprise market.
Chris Sambar's history with AST SpaceMobile and Abel Avellan
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Drawing on a 6G Podcast interview with Sambar, Anpanman recounted that roughly 7-8 years ago (around 2017), while Sambar was building out FirstNet for AT&T, Abel Avellan approached him as a vendor pitching AST SpaceMobile's technology; Avellan's first call among US carriers was to AT&T, aided by warm introductions from his prior company EMC's relationships with AT&T.
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Anpanman noted that around 2017-2018, when Avellan first filed constellation plans with the FCC, Verizon and T-Mobile pushed back, arguing the technology wouldn't work and could cause interference, while AT&T was initially 'somewhat lukewarm.'
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Anpanman recalled that around 2019, AT&T and AST signed an MOU giving AT&T roughly five years of mutual exclusivity in the US — AST couldn't sell to Verizon or T-Mobile, and AT&T couldn't use any other direct-to-device provider.
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Anpanman said Vodafone's CTO posted an early YouTube video, possibly in summer 2018 or 2019 (date uncertain), discussing AST SpaceMobile's technology and Vodafone's interest in it.
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Sambar described the early AT&T-AST relationship as a 'skunkworks' project run informally by himself and AT&T's then-CTO.
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Anpanman relayed that in 2022, after Starlink and Apple publicly disclosed their direct-to-device plans, Sambar told AT&T CEO John Stankey about the AT&T-AST work, and Stankey reportedly asked why he hadn't been told sooner; Sambar's response was that they weren't yet sure the technology would work.
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Sambar called the BlueWalker 1 test satellite an 'aha moment,' praising Avellan's approach of sending a mobile phone to space to iterate satellite development on Earth rather than launching multiple full satellites.
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Sambar personally spearheaded AT&T's technical evaluation of AST, orchestrated AT&T's strategic equity investment and multi-year commercial agreement, and served on AST SpaceMobile's board, giving him intimate knowledge of the company's launch timeline, engineering capabilities and capital needs at least through 2024.
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Anpanman said Sambar is a personal friend of Abel Avellan and knows Scott Wisniewski and other senior AST SpaceMobile executives directly.
T-Mobile's strategic shift and the three-carrier joint venture
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Anpanman disagreed with industry consultant Tim Farrar's view (voiced the morning the carrier JV was announced) that the AT&T/Verizon/T-Mobile joint venture was formed mainly to give the three carriers better negotiating leverage against Starlink; Anpanman argued the real purpose is to let T-Mobile join AT&T and Verizon in using AST SpaceMobile.
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T-Mobile's Starlink Direct-to-Cell exclusivity is ending in July, forcing T-Mobile to decide its strategic direction as Starlink has stated ambitions to compete head-on with the wireless carriers on the terrestrial mobile business.
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Anpanman argued that hiring Sambar transforms T-Mobile's position in the carrier JV from a distrusted, 'hat in hand' latecomer (having previously partnered with Starlink) to a credible party, since Sambar has direct personal trust with Abel Avellan and deep knowledge of AST's technology.
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Anpanman recalled that John Stankey was the architect of bringing Verizon into the AT&T-AST partnership in 2024, partly driven by an FCC requirement for contiguous nationwide low-band spectrum coverage to qualify for Supplemental Coverage from Space.
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Anpanman pushed back on an unnamed industry analyst who suggested Sambar's hire would mainly help T-Mobile negotiate better with Starlink, calling that read 'off base' and reiterating that Sambar's real value is bringing AST SpaceMobile into T-Mobile's fold.
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Anpanman recalled that the carrier JV press release went out around 7:00 a.m., AST SpaceMobile's related press release followed one minute later at 7:01 a.m., and roughly 13 hours after that SpaceX's Gwynne Shotwell tweeted a 'David and Goliath' comment implying Starlink was now competing against the big three carriers; Viasat put out its own press release about two weeks later congratulating what Anpanman referred to as 'Jordan Petra' (name unclear/possibly garbled in the transcript).
Grain Management spectrum and JV infrastructure
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Anpanman explained that Grain Management, an investment firm, acquired 600 MHz spectrum in an earlier FCC auction and later swapped it with T-Mobile for T-Mobile's 800 MHz spectrum, with Grain paying T-Mobile roughly $2.9 billion in cash to balance the uneven trade (Anpanman initially misspoke '$3 billion' before correcting himself).
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Anpanman noted that AST SpaceMobile filed a letter supporting FCC approval of Grain's 800 MHz spectrum for direct-to-device use, shortly before the FCC approved the transaction, showing AST and Grain are working closely together, with AST helping Grain meet its network buildout requirements.
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Grain's 800 MHz spectrum sits directly adjacent (roughly 7 MHz by 7 MHz up/downlink on average) to AT&T's and Verizon's 850 MHz spectrum used with AST, and T-Mobile reportedly still retains an economic stake in the Grain spectrum.
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Anpanman speculated that Grain's 800 MHz spectrum will eventually be combined with the AT&T and Verizon spectrum already leased to AST inside the carrier JV, possibly with the T-Mobile/Grain cash deal renegotiated so T-Mobile redirects that capital into the JV instead.
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Anpanman speculated the JV would feature shared gateway infrastructure across the US, Alaska, Canada and US territories to avoid redundant spending, likely interfaced through AT&T's network (analogous to multiple carriers sharing equipment on a single tower site), with each carrier still marketing the service independently.
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Responding to a listener question about whether a 60-satellite constellation would provide enough bandwidth for all three carriers, Anpanman said it should be sufficient initially but that the constellation will need to densify over time with more low-band BlueBirds, then mid-band, then eventually a C-band constellation.
Mike Katz's departure from T-Mobile
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Buried in the same T-Mobile press release announcing Sambar's hire, Mike Katz — T-Mobile's Chief Business and Product Officer for about 20 years, hired under former CEO John Legere — is departing.
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Anpanman said Katz was largely responsible for the commercial/product execution of T-Mobile's Starlink and T-Satellite relationship, though he was unsure how much decision-making authority Katz had in originally bringing Starlink on.
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Anpanman framed Katz and former CEO Mike Sievert (who departed roughly a year earlier) as the 'old guard' who championed the Starlink deal, which Anpanman said is now viewed, in retrospect, as a strategic mistake for the industry.
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Anpanman argued the timing — Katz's exit and Sambar's hire coinciding with the end of T-Mobile's Starlink exclusivity — is not coincidental and signals T-Mobile shifting away from the leadership responsible for the Starlink deal.
Closing thoughts and market advice
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Anpanman argued markets are not always efficient, and that the gap between what informed investors understand now (about the Sambar hire and spectral efficiency news) and what the broader market will eventually price in is where investors make real returns.
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Anpanman advised listeners to stay disciplined given the risk-off environment: avoid margin, don't overload positions, don't convert entirely into options, and instead hold and stay informed until conditions settle.
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Anpanman said he plans to research Mike Katz's departure further, potentially reaching out to industry analyst Will Townsend of the 6G Podcast for his read on whether Katz's exit is tied to the broader AST/Starlink dynamic.
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Anpanman closed by saying that when the official news eventually comes that T-Mobile is joining AST SpaceMobile, investors should 'hold on to your butts' because it will be a major stock-moving event.
Watch Items2
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End of T-Mobile's Starlink Direct-to-Cell exclusivity agreement
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Anticipated official announcement of T-Mobile joining/working with AST SpaceMobile
Open Questions4
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How will the AT&T/Verizon/T-Mobile joint venture actually operate once beta and commercial AST SpaceMobile service becomes available — will all three carriers get access at the same time?
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Will a roughly 60-satellite constellation provide enough bandwidth to serve all three carriers simultaneously, or will the constellation need to be densified first?
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Is Mike Katz's departure from T-Mobile directly connected to the end of the Starlink exclusivity and Chris Sambar's hire, or driven by unrelated reasons?
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Exactly how will the Grain Management 800 MHz spectrum deal with T-Mobile be restructured, if at all, as it's folded into the carrier joint venture with AST SpaceMobile?
Raw Transcript
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Listen, the opportunity that we have is very, very, very large. Everyone, thanks for joining this late space. Appreciate everyone taking the time after a pretty brutal day. Not gonna lie, it was pretty awful. Every sector was under pressure. And yeah, I think obviously there's been deleveraging going on in Korea, which has been leading kind of the mania around memory companies. And so it, you know, that deleveraging, of course, with the news in Iran, it's just been risk-off. But anyway, in the face of that, we've had some really positive news around obviously for AST SpaceMobile, the performance metrics that were released by Satellite Connect Europe today, achieving 10 bits per second per hertz. And that performance metric, which several people have posted about as well as myself, is something that was a surprise for everyone. And I think once the market as I said before, kind of returns to some level of normalcy. I think finally, you know, that once research analysts kind of dig into this, then start to realize what it means for broadband speeds, for AST SpaceMobile's constellation and how it's differentiated. Yeah, that's just a huge piece of news. And that underscores what Abel has been talking about, which is achieving 3x performance, Relative to spectral efficiency of what they were touting before, which is about 3 bits per hertz. But getting to 10, that's approximately 3 times. And then the roadmap allows the company to get to perhaps up to 11 times performance enhancement. So we'll see. But yeah, after the close today, I was in the middle of doing some things with the family, and then I saw this press release pop up. Just checking Bloomberg and I looked under T-Mobile and saw that our old friend Chris Ambar, who for those that don't know, Chris was the president of network at AT&T. He was responsible for FirstNet, but also architecting and building out the 5G network. So a very senior level guy. I think for Chris at AT&T, In terms of his career trajectory, I think, you know, there was a bit of a ceiling just given that John Stankey was appointed CEO not long ago and is probably going to remain in that seat for quite some time. And so for Chris, I think it was probably time for him to move on. He ended up moving to Public Storage, which is a storage company. He was there as the chief operating officer for 2 years, or what will be 2 years come October. And now he's joining T-Mobile. And so this is a pretty significant appointment in that, well, first of all, that 2 years, it's likely he had a non-compete for maybe 1.5, 2 years. And so serving out that non-compete, working in a different industry and getting some experience while getting paid, not a bad thing to do. And so, but obviously now he's returning back to industry. At a very interesting time. And so Chris is an interesting individual. I posted this interview that he did with the 6G Podcast, and I tried to clip out a piece where he talks about the history of meeting Abel and learning about AST SpaceMobile and then building a relationship, which then ultimately led to this strategic partnership between the 2 companies. But He was an early advocate of AST. So Chris, back in the day, I guess it was like 6, 7, no, actually I guess it was 7, 8 years ago, he was tasked with building out FirstNet. And as part of that process, he talks about in the story, he had a number of vendors coming to him and offering various products to help build out the network. And one of those vendors happened to be Abel Avalon of AST SpaceMobile. And so this is back when Abel had come up with the idea in 2017, and then he, when looking at all the various wireless carriers here in the US, which obviously there's only a handful, his first call was to AT&T. And so I think he had some friendly, he had some relationships that could give him warm introductions because previously Abel had, in his prior company EMC, he had worked with AT&T in delivering satellite video solutions, video conferencing, For AT&T, I think the enterprise business, and so he had a number of relationships there. And so when he did try to reach out to Chris Sombar, he was given you know a warm introduction on some of these former or some of these you know AT&T executives he had worked with before. And so Chris took the meeting because it you know Abel came with positive words, and and so that that was that. initial meeting was what really kicked things off. And so in that meeting, Abel talked about how his vision for ASD SpaceMobile of using very large phased array satellites in low Earth orbit to connect with everyday smartphones and how that would be the basis for providing 100% broadband, not just texting or SOS messaging, but broadband coverage Across the United States. And so that was a natural point of interest for Chris having been tasked with building out FirstNet. And so the two decided to work together. And so over those years, this is, I think, so in 2017 or 2018, I remember when Abel had filed plans for the constellation and talked about his technology. It was I think it was Verizon and T-Mobile who pushed back at the FCC and said that they didn't believe this technology would work and that it would probably cause interference issues. They had a number of concerns. AT&T at that time was somewhat lukewarm. They obviously had started talking with Bell, but they also had some concerns. And so I think one of the first filings at the FCC, they said, this could be promising, but we need to evaluate it further. But over the years, the 2 companies worked very closely together. The other big partner, of course, was Vodafone and Rakuten as well, who had engineers working with AST over those years. I remember the first public comment from Vodafone was in, maybe it was the summer of 2018 or maybe 2019, but the CTO of Vodafone had a short YouTube where he talked about AST SpaceMobile, their early work, and how the idea of connecting to everyday smartphones from space was unique and something that they were exploring. But yeah, AT&T was their very early technology partner. They helped develop the technology with AST, and they had an MOU at the time. I remember it was like 2019. There was an MOU that was signed where they had mutual exclusivity. So AT&T had the rights to AST's technology in the US. It was kind of like an iPhone moment for them where they would have 5 years of exclusivity. And as a result, AST couldn't sell the service to Verizon or T-Mobile, and AT&T couldn't use anyone else. Of course, there was no one else at the time. But over the years, of course, Chris Sambar, in this story, he talks about the relationship with AST being somewhat of a Skunk Works project where it was him and the former CTO and they kind of worked on the project on their own. And then eventually in 2022, when Starlink and Apple went public with what they were working on, and obviously Starlink had seen what was possible, but given what AST was doing and then they heard about what Apple was considering, they came out and announced something very quickly that they were entering into this market. And so I think it was at that time when Chris then spoke to John Stankey and revealed what they had been working on. And John Stankey was like, why did you guys tell me earlier? And I think the response was, well, you know, they weren't sure it was going to work. But of course, over the years as they tested it with BlueWalker 1, you know, Chris Ambar talks about how that was an aha moment. Where Abel's brilliance of instead of sending a satellite out to space and having to send multiple satellites out to space to develop the technology, they smartly just sent a mobile phone out into space and then they could iterate the development of the satellite here on Earth. And so that was a much smarter way to iterate the technology. And so over that period of time, When, going back to 2022, that was when John Senke was, you know, people were asking, oh, what, you know, given what SpaceX is doing, what do you guys have? And then that's when he started talking more publicly about AST SpaceMobile. And then of course, you know, Chris was a huge advocate of AST. He became personal friends with Abel. He, in this interview, he talks about how Abel is probably one of the greatest inventors of our time. Which is very high praise. But Chris was important and instrumental in leading the relationship with AST. He was the architect of that relationship. He personally spearheaded, obviously, AT&T's technical evaluation of AST's capabilities. He orchestrated AT&T's strategic equity investment and the multi-year commercial agreement. And then he also, for the people who have forgotten, he served on the board of AST SpaceMobile for that period of time. And so he has very intimate knowledge, at least going back to 2024. He has an intimate knowledge of the company's launch timeline, engineering capabilities, capital needs, all that stuff, right? As any board member would have. But then obviously he's a very close friend of Abel and knows Scott and And a whole host of other people at AST SpaceMobile. And so the hiring of Chris by T-Mobile was very interesting. It's not a surprise because Chris is a very capable executive, and if you need to fill the role of Chief Enterprise Officer, there's probably no better person to do that. He helped architect and deploy the 5G network for AT&T, and then of course, as I mentioned before, FirstNet, you know, that was his baby. And then on top of that, he was early to Direct Advice because he took a bet on Abel. And so he's intimately aware of what ASTA is capable of, you know, and then also the strategic landscape. So he knows Globalstar, he knows Starlink. Funny enough, in the video, he, I mean, it's a little awkward, right? Like T-Mobile's hiring this guy, And he was very critical of Starlink in all these interviews. And so that's out there. It's like public knowledge. But yeah, it's interesting timing because as we all know, the big 3 announced this joint venture back in May where they decided to, and this is an unprecedented thing, they decided to pool their spectrum resources and they are going to coordinate ground infrastructure and do all these different things where they want to put forward a better product to consumers. And so completely eliminate dead zones. But then obviously a big part of this, which isn't said out loud, is that there is some strategic concern around Starlink. And so unlike some of our industry consultants, I remember Tim Farrar that morning when the JV was announced, he said, Clearly this was formed so that the 3 parties could have a better negotiating position with Starlink. No, that's the wrong read. The right read is that the 3 of them are forming this JV so that T-Mobile can join the other 2 parties and utilize AST SpaceMobile because there are strategic concerns and competitive concerns around what Starlink is doing. And so the timing of This hire is very important in that, you know, T-Mobile, as I said before, they're getting someone who's very knowledgeable about the direct-to-device sector. They know they're hiring someone who is friends with Abel, very close friends, and also knows the executives at AT&T, John Stanky. John Stanky was, from what I understand, he was kind of the lead architect of bringing Verizon into the fold back in 2024. And so it was through partially the FCC when they demanded that direct-to-device, you had to have contiguous spectrum that covered the entire United States as one of the requirements in order to provide subliminal coverage from space. That forced AT&T to then decide, hey, you know what, we have this 850 megahertz spectrum, but we don't have all of it. What if we, and this is John Stankey, what if we invite Verizon and we create, they become an equal partner or they actually became a junior partner, but they contribute spectrum. They also make a strategic investment and then the service is going to be much better. And so that was John Stankey's idea. And then fast forward to now where in May this joint venture was announced and obviously the new partner, Party that is joining is T-Mobile, right? And so T-Mobile, here you've got a player that has Starlink direct-to-cell. That relationship's going to end in July. And so they've got to figure out what they're going to do strategically. Obviously, I mean, I don't have to beat a dead horse, but Starlink has made its ambitions known that it wants to take on the carriers head-on. And so now you're bringing The issue with that joint venture is that you're going into it as kind of the person that's behind and kind of viewed as the party that let the fox into the henhouse, right? And perhaps you're not going to be on the same competency or peer type of footing as the other players, right? As AT&T and Verizon. So what you do is you go hire Chris Ambar, who knows AST SpaceMobile intimately, was the chief architect of bringing AST into the AT&T relationship. And this guy was the biggest advocate. And so all of a sudden you go from kind of hat in hand, third party joining this joint venture to, hey, we're coming. It's just like hiring one of the best lawyers who is like an Intimate expert in a specific field, right? Like you go from having no knowledge and actually working for a competitor that's thinking about bringing the entire industry down. You bring this guy to the table who helped create, you know, I mean, obviously it was Abella who created the industry, but without Chris Sombar's help, like AST wouldn't be here today. And so that guy is coming to the table to negotiate on your behalf. of this joint venture and he's going to be the interface. And, you know, it's not like bringing someone brand new from T-Mobile, like sitting them down with Abel and having lunch and, you know, having to get to know each other for a few days and weeks and then having some level of decorum and like, you know, rapport with each other. It's like, no, this is, hey, It's Abel's like, hey, this is Chris Sombar. I know this guy. And so he can, he's, when he comes to me, there's a certain level of trust, right? And there's experience there. And so he's gonna be able to come to him and say, hey, look, I just got hired by T-Mobile. This is what we're thinking of doing. This is my assessment of it. Let's work together. And so that conversation and your status at this joint venture becomes a very different thing when you bring someone as experienced and with that history as Chris Sambar. And so I think that's a really important— today, like, it's a very important move, right? And I don't— I know people are probably like, this guy keeps saying it, beating a dead horse, but I don't think the market fully understands it, and they probably won't for some period of time. Maybe they will. I mean, in this environment where the market's It's risk-off and all stocks are going down, like who cares? But when things do settle out and people understand and see the tea leaves here, it's like, holy shit, this is a massive hire for T-Mobile. And it's also a huge piece of the mosaic of like where things are going, right? Like we've already had on the joint venture side, it's like AST was intimately aware that it was going on. And if you talk to executives, like they'll tell you at AST that You know, that JV opens up T-Mobile to work with them, right? Like it's clear as day. And then you've got the hiring of Chris Sambhar, which that's like the biggest tell. I don't know if that's not the biggest tell. I don't know what is like for people who, and we'll see. I mean, I think Will Townsend of 6G Podcasts, like he gets it. I think he probably retweeted that interview that he did with Abel and Chris from 2024. But yeah, I mean, there's all this information out there. I mean, clearly Chris thinks that this is a superior solution, AST, and he doesn't look very highly about Starlink. Another interesting point, which I did want to make, is that kind of buried in this press release for T-Mobile is that Mike Katz, who was the, let's see here. Mike Katz was the chief business officer, and I think he was responsible for marketing or product chief business and product officer. So this guy, Mike Katz, he he came. He's been at T-Mobile, I think for twenty years. He he joined when John Legere was around. John Legere is like an absolute legend, and so he was hired by T-Mobile back in the day to revitalize the brand, and that was after they bought. I think it was like MetroPCS. And he was the one who came up with the whole uncarrier idea, right? Like, I'm a maverick and we're going to shake up the industry. And John Legere is an absolute marketing legend, right? And so— [00:20:32] Speaker A: This episode is brought to you by Accenture. When your advertising operations fall out of sync, everything else follows. Spotify and Accenture are working together to reinvent the rhythm of ad sales using automation, analytics, and smarter workflows to simplify campaign delivery and access better data across the business. The result? Less time spent on operations, more time connecting brands with the moments and fandoms that matter most. Learn more at accenture.com/spotify. [00:21:01] Speaker B: This episode is brought to you by Google Chrome. You think you know a browser, but Gemini in Chrome, that's new. It can help you with practically anything on the web, like restoring a vintage motorcycle from a 50-page restoration blog. Or finally break down that long article you've had open for weeks. Gemini in Chrome is here for it. Ready to make anything online make sense? There's no place like Chrome. Check responses, set up required compatibility and availability varies, 18+. He was the one that Mike Sievert learned under. And then once he retired, I mean, he took T-Mobile to the next level. Like they became a true bona fide number 3, you know, one of the top 3 carriers, right? And then But this guy Mike Katz was, he's been around for 20 years. And so the interesting thing about him is that he's part of the old guard, meaning, you know, so Mike Sievert was part of the old guard. He was the original, I think originally he was either the chief operating officer or CTO and then became CEO. And so it was him and also Mike Katz who, you know, who made this decision to bring Starlink on, right? And so Mike Katz was responsible for all the messaging, for the execution of it. I believe he was the commercial and product architect of the T-Satellite business and Starlink. And so I'm not exactly sure how much decision-making he had in bringing on Starlink, but he clearly was like very responsible for executing that relationship. And so it's very interesting that he got basically, you know, he's being transitioned out, but he's leaving. I, but both he and Mike Sievert are gone, right? And so those 2 guys were, I would say, very front and center and visible. They were the guys who came up with the idea of working with Starlink and both are gone. Mike Sievert, you know, was gone, was it a year ago? And then, and, you know, we, you know, Space Mob, we kind of made big hay about it and no one really cared. But it's like, hey, Mike Sievert is getting pushed out. And one of the key decisions that he had made as CEO was this whole idea of working with Elon Musk and Starlink. And now in retrospect, the industry, that was a huge tactical mistake, right? And so, and then this guy who's who worked closely with Mike Sievert and before John Legere. But if I had to guess, it was probably Mike Katz's, one of his, or part of his idea of working with Starlink, because it's like, hey, these guys, if we bring in Starlink, then we're going to be able to take some market share. We're going to look like a really cool out-of-the-box thinking carrier. We're working with this cool brand and Elon Musk. It's going to be great. And lo and behold, like on the ending of exclusivity of that relationship, like all of a sudden Mike Katz is out. Not only is Mike Katz out, Chris Hambar is in. And so all this stuff, I mean, it's not by random happenstance. Like this all aligns like that T-Mobile is shifting. The old guard who kind of made these strategic mistakes, they're On the way out. And now you've got Chris Sambar coming in and he's uniquely positioned to help T-Mobile kind of navigate this future where they need to work with, to some extent in terms of pooling resources, spectrum and also the network infrastructure, but they're going to have to work closely with AT&T and Verizon and also bringing on AST SpaceMobile as their choice directed device provider. And so, yeah, I mean, Chris Umbar, he's the perfect guy for them, right? For all the reasons that I mentioned before. The other thing is that Chris Umbar has significant FirstNet and public safety experience, and that's something where— that's a business and an area that T-Mobile's trying to expand into. The other thing is that In this press release that they they talk about his hiring, he is tasked with let's see here with strengthening T-Mobile strategy to disrupt and increase its presence in industries beyond core wireless while redefining customer experience in the enterprise market in the same spirit blah blah blah okay so he he's being you know tapped on the shoulder to expand T-Mobile's business, right? And so whether that's IoT, 6G, a big part of 6G is satellite. Yeah, I mean, he's obviously well-equipped, especially in this particular area of direct-to-device, which is the, as I mentioned in the discussion earlier today, it is a core focus of the wireless carriers. And even if it's not by choice, the street is putting this on them, right? So Wall Street, is very concerned about Starlink. They're very concerned about the fixed wireless business, the impact on the 5G and fiber home for AT&T, Verizon, and T-Mobile. And then on top of that, they're very— they meaning Wall Street analysts and also investors who cover the wireless carriers— they're very, very concerned about what the potential impact is of Starlink if they decide to go after the terrestrial business. Well, Not decide. Starlink has already decided, like that's something that they are planning to do. And so there was an interesting note from Morgan Stanley. I was looking at it. They had published a piece on T-Mobile. They were talking about how Starlink could either convince the carriers to enable them as a virtual network operator, or maybe they could buy T-Mobile, or if that's not the case, then maybe they'll try to cobble together some low-band spectrum to compete head-on. But it was in their view, the Morgan Stanley analyst's view, that in other markets, so maybe not the US initially, but in other markets, Starlink is absolutely going to compete with the MNOs in markets where perhaps the market's more fragmented or the infrastructure's not as developed. And so yeah, the writing's on the wall. But yeah, this piece of news, I don't, I don't think you could get any more bullish for AST. You've got the biggest advocate of AST joining T-Mobile, personal friends with the Bell, personal friends with Scott, personal friends with, you know, a pretty, I would say from pretty deep down at AST SpaceMobile. You wouldn't hire this guy if you were going to be an adversary of AST, if that makes sense, or an adversary of AT&T for that matter. Now, obviously the carriers are going to continue to compete for customers, but when it comes to this larger existential threat of Starlink, this is the guy you want to hire. Like, this is the hand of the, you know, I say return of the king because obviously Chris Ambar was very much loved amongst AST SpaceMobile shareholders. You know, he was a huge advocate and understood the technology better than anyone in the wireless industry. And so it's great to have this guy back. Whether he came back at— if he came back to AT&T, that would've been great. If he went to Verizon, that would've been wonderful. But in terms of pure impact and relevance, like the fact that this guy ended up at T-Mobile is huge. It's absolutely huge. And I think this is where you can look at this data point and know where the wind is blowing, that T-Mobile is working with AST and And this is going to solidify that, right? And so when people look back a few months from now and say, where were the signs? It's like, oh, it's all here. The joint venture that released, you know, when that press release went out at what, 7:00 AM? And then AST's press release went out at 7:01. And then 13 hours later, you had Glenn Shotwell say, well, I guess we're competing. You know, this is after, in my mind, this is what happened when Starlink saw the press release and they're like, wait a second. And then they They called the executives at T-Mobile and they're like, hey, what happened here? And then T-Mobile pretty much said, hey, you know that exclusive you have? We're not re-signing it. Like, we'll continue to work with you maybe to a degree, but we are interested in joining this joint venture and we're going to be doing something even bigger. And so then that's when Glenn famously tweeted, hey, we're David and they're Goliath. And so I guess we're competing against the big 3. And so And of course, you know, Viasat, no joke, they put out their press release 2 weeks later congratulating Jordan Petra. But yeah, this is absolutely big news. And I think, I don't know, maybe some of these analysts will kind of piece it together overnight. Probably not. But, you know, it was funny, I did see, excuse me, In some initial research that I did, I did see overnight that someone had, one of these research analysts, industry analysts, not a Wall Street analyst, but an industry analyst had said, oh, the hiring of Chris Sombar is great because of his experience in D2D and with AT&T. It'll help them, it'll help T-Mobile negotiate better with Starlink. It's just like so funny that this person Just like these other folks who have written about the industry, they have no clue. Like, okay, Chris Sunbar, he has experience in direct-to-device. This means that he's going to be able to manage the Starlink relationship better. No, no, that's— you're getting it wrong. You're absolutely off base. But anyway, that's the world we live in and that is the opportunity. Like people who don't understand, and like I said before, the markets are not efficient, but once they get to a point of efficiency, that's where you make your returns by, you know, sitting back and owning something that is mispriced and misunderstood, but just not misunderstood for long. So anyway, I'm going to pause there. I'm going to just take a quick look and see if there's any questions. But yeah, I think this is going to be another vector of research for me. I'm going to try to Learn a bit more about Mike Katz because I the the initial cursor research. I mean, it's just it's just odd like this. It's not odd, but the guy leaving at the same time as Chris Armbar coming in, it seems like all the the puzzle pieces make sense. But let me see here. I'm just going to look and see if there's any comments or questions. Let's see, J.R. Space. He never really left us. M and O's and A.S.T. for the win. That's right. When he went to Public Storage, and that was pretty much to take care of his garden leave, his not garden leave, but his non-compete for what is probably 1.5 years. And so yeah, in some respects he didn't leave, and if anything, he's coming back to reinforce AST's moat. So I think this is a really big piece of positive news. Let's see another Comment here. This shows that they were jealous of Chris Ambar being a contact point between AT&T and AST earlier. Now they want him to be in their team. Yes, this is exactly the right point. Having Chris Ambar as your contact point helps, I think, at the joint venture, but also, and you know, Chris Ambar, I believe he still has good relations with AT&T. And for those that don't know, they're There was another guy, J.R. Wilson, who worked closely with Chris Sambhar. He left AT&T and joined AST. And so we've got a number of friendly people at AST that he knows from AT&T that he's probably going to leverage at T-Mobile. Let's see. How will the JV work when beta and commercial service becomes available? Will all 3 get access at the same time? Will a 60-sat constellation be enough bandwidth for all 3 carriers? That's a good question. So how would the JV work? Well, my guess is that, so here's another interesting wrinkle. So the 850 megahertz that AT&T and Verizon have contributed, it's nice, but it's not enough. I think you, in some markets, there's only, you know, 2, it's a sliver of maybe like 2 megahertz of spectrum or 3 megahertz of spectrum. The other interesting piece of the puzzle, which we can thank Space Mob due diligence for is that Grain Management, which went into the 600 megahertz auction many years ago. They bought pieces of it and then they decided to trade that with T-Mobile, that 600 megahertz spectrum with T-Mobile's 800 megahertz spectrum. And so they decided to trade those 2 or swap those 2. And then Grain Management, which is an investment firm, They are paying T-Mobile $3 point— no, is it $3? No, it's $2.9 billion in cash because it's not an even swap. But Grain Management now has this 800 MHz spectrum. And as most of you know, since you follow Space Mob accounts, last week they got— right before they got FCC approval, AT&T or AST SpaceMobile put in a letter supporting the approval of that spectrum for direct-to-device use. And it's very clear in that filing that the 2 companies are working closely together in order to light that spectrum up. AST is going to be important for them in terms of meeting their buildout requirements. So AST will enable Grain to meet the buildout requirements in a very short period of time. And interestingly, that spectrum sits right adjacent to both down and uplink to the AT&T and Verizon 850 megahertz spectrum. And so that spectrum, I think on average the depth is 7 megahertz by 7 megahertz up and downlink. And so my guess is, and T-Mobile still has an economic stake in it as well. So my guess is that that spectrum will be combined with the AT&T and Verizon spectrum that's being leased by AST SpaceMobile, that all that stuff will, all that spectrum will be put into this JV. And then the reason why the JV makes a ton of economic sense, and by the way, this is what was already happening. So AT&T was the senior MNO partner working with AST, and then Verizon was a junior partner, meaning Verizon put in money and they put in spectrum, but then they were leaving integration, network integration, all that stuff and infrastructure up to AT&T. And so I think what's going to happen is something similar where T-Mobile will join, they'll contribute some type of resources, you know, money, and then this grain management spectrum is going to be contributed as well. Maybe that deal between T-Mobile and Grain gets renegotiated possibly a little bit to where maybe Grain doesn't pay as much cash, but then T-Mobile ends up taking that cash and putting it into the JV. I don't know. I mean, this There's like a lot of different ways that permutations this could take, but that JV will have common infrastructure. So the 3 carriers are not going to be spending the same dollars to buy redundant infrastructure. There will be a few gateways in the US and Hawaii, Canada, or not Hawaii, Alaska, and then obviously some of the US territories. And then The interface of that will be probably controlled by AT&T, but it will, they'll figure out how to integrate into the core network. And then I'm not a technical person, so my guess is that there will be a way that that interface will be able to, just like when you go to American Tower or Crown Castle, one of these tower companies on a tower, you'll have radios from all 3 carriers, but then all 3 carriers have equipment at that site. My guess is like the Nokia interface will then back into all the 3 carriers and route traffic properly. But who knows? It's unclear how that will work. But that's the whole point of the JV where my guess is that they will, you know, there's cost savings and marketing dollars that will I mean, each carrier will market it the way that they want, but the key thing is I think in terms of the JV, they'll figure out the proper business model and not from a competitive standpoint, not beat the crap out of each other. And then on top of that, it will be, there'll be some elements where if I guess for T-Mobile, they'll probably still have to work with Starlink to a degree because From an antitrust point of view, you don't want to shut them out completely. But yeah, we'll see. Will a 60-satellite constellation be enough for all 3? I think it will be initially, but you'll want to densify the constellation. So not only put more low-band Bluebirds up, but then also, you know, more— you'll get the mid-band Bluebird constellation up and then you get the C-band constellation up. And so the performance is going to get better and better. Uh, actually, I'm going to take a small pause here. We just need to turn on the fans, getting hot in my room. Um, let me see, someone's saying, I can't wait for this when he's back. Yes, I agree. I think, um, this is a huge hire for, for, um, T-Mobile. And again, I think this is This is a sign of things to come. So for those people who are paying attention, yeah, I think this is very bullish for AST. Let me see here if there's any other questions. So I think that might be it. Yeah. So This is really positive news. I'm going to try to, might try to research more about Mike Katz, and I don't know if there's any folks who follow the TMT sector closely and have any additional background. I might actually reach out to Will Townsend and just ask him what he thinks about this departure of Mike Katz and perhaps maybe it's related to all this, which my guess is it is. Because you don't— if he was leaving for other reasons, like, I guess, you know, you probably have a separate press release at some other time. But this all seems to be, uh, all related. So anyway, um, that's all I had. Uh, I do think Corey Walk is saying he can't wait for Free Speech, Bright Franklin, or Tim Ferriss's comments on Chris Hembar joining T-Mobile. Uh, yeah, the, the amount of, uh— and so for those that don't know, these are some of the bears, industry bears To back in the day when Chris Sombra left, which was September 2024, some of these bears were like, oh my gosh, Chris Sombra's leaving because AT&T, like that, the relationship with AT&T and ASC, it must have eroded. Or, you know, you can draw any number of negative conclusions about why he left. But now, now that he's joined T-Mobile, I'm sure they're going to try to spin this in some negative way, which is going to be really tough. The mental contortion required to do so is going to be fun to watch. But anyway, that's all I had. So yeah, we'll see what the market brings tomorrow. As a reminder, it's a risk-off environment. It's, you know, it's a tough time, but just stay focused. Don't be on margin. Don't load up. Don't, you know, convert your position completely to options. Now's the time to just kind of buckle down and just know what you own and hold and And when things do settle down, all this stuff is going to be relevant, right? It's going to drive stock price performance. And when the news eventually comes that T-Mobile's joining AST SpaceMobile, hold onto your butts. It's going to be crazy. So with that, I'll end it. And thanks everyone for joining, and we'll speak again soon. [00:41:48] Speaker A: Bye. [00:41:48] Speaker B: Thanks for listening to the AST SpaceMobile Podcast. If you enjoyed this episode and you'd like to help support the podcast, please share it with others, post about it on social media, or leave a rating and review. To catch all the latest news about AST SpaceMobile, make sure to subscribe. Thanks for listening. Thanks again, and I'll see you next time. [00:42:22] Speaker A: Listen. [00:42:24] Speaker B: Mmm, waffles.
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