Episode
Anpanman - AST SpaceMobile + Vodafone News = SatCo JV Comes Into Focus
In a solo X Spaces recording published November 7, 2025, Anpanman breaks down that morning's joint AST SpaceMobile/Vodafone press release fleshing out the SatCo European joint venture.
He explains how it positions AST and Vodafone to win a May 2027 EU 2 GHz MSS spectrum reallocation and effectively displace the EU's own €10 billion-plus Iris constellation plan.
He also covers the risk-off macro backdrop (government shutdown, Fed uncertainty) weighing on the stock despite the positive news, takes audience questions on SatCo ownership and a rumored Elon Musk buyout, and previews Monday's Q3 2025 earnings call.
His headline conclusion: the SatCo JV announcement is a 'game-changing' structural move that puts AST/Vodafone in pole position for the 2027 EU spectrum award.
Key Takeaways
- AST SpaceMobile and Vodafone announced new details on their SatCo joint venture on the morning of November 7, 2025, describing it as a fully European-controlled entity (Vodafone/EU MNOs as majority owner and controller, AST as minority owner providing satellites and operations) designed to satisfy EU data-sovereignty demands that intensified after reports that Starlink was turned off/on for Ukrainian forces during the Russia-Ukraine war.
- SatCo will be headquartered in Luxembourg, with a European Satellite Operations Centre in Germany and R&D/production activity in Spain, and AST has filed ITU spectrum-coordination paperwork for the mid-band constellation through Germany.
- Anpanman's central thesis is that SatCo positions AST and Vodafone (plus other EU MNO partners) to win an allocation of the EU's 2 GHz MSS spectrum (60 MHz total, currently split between EchoStar and Inmarsat/Viasat) when it comes up for reallocation in May 2027; he guesses AST/SatCo could get at least 10x10 MHz (and possibly 15x15 MHz), while EchoStar's weak European IoT usage makes it the likely loser and Inmarsat/Viasat's active airline-connectivity network makes it likely to keep some allocation.
- Anpanman argues SatCo could make the EU's own planned Iris satellite constellation (estimated at over €10 billion) largely redundant, since SatCo already has broad EU MNO backing, a sovereignty-satisfying ownership structure, and existing/near-term satellite capacity.
- On Globalstar's earnings call the prior day, Globalstar declined to comment on SatCo/spectrum press reports but emphasized its global spectrum position and hinted at leasing out the roughly 15% of its satellite capacity not contractually committed to Apple, which Anpanman read as a veiled signal aimed at either SpaceX, AST, or a company sale/negotiating leverage against Apple.
- SatCo is also pursuing public protection and disaster relief (PPDR) connectivity for Europe (branded the 'EU Critical Communication System') using specific cellular frequency bands (698-703, 753-758, 733-736, and 788-791 MHz) that AST's satellites already support, a service Anpanman says Europe currently lacks.
- The stock declined despite the positive SatCo news because of a broader risk-off macro environment tied to the US government shutdown (which has paused SEC filing reviews and government economic data releases) and a more hawkish/uncertain Federal Reserve rate-cut outlook after Chair Powell's recent comments.
- Anpanman dismissed audience-raised rumors (from a James Altucher newsletter) that Elon Musk/SpaceX could try to buy AST SpaceMobile, citing founder Abel Avellan's voting control, his personal mission-driven motivation (having grown up in a poor area of Venezuela), and likely antitrust/regulatory objections to a SpaceX-AST combination.
- Anpanman recapped recent catalysts from the prior roughly three weeks: the Verizon definitive commercial agreement, incorporation of AST's Ligado L-band and S-band spectrum into the next 3GPP release (meaning support in handsets), and the Saudi Telecom (stc) 10-year commercial agreement worth at least $1.8 billion with minimum revenue commitments that Anpanman estimates could be worth a few hundred million dollars a year on its own.
- AST SpaceMobile's Q3 2025 earnings call was set for the Monday following this episode, with the company expected to report its first quarter of meaningful revenue and give Q4 guidance; Anpanman noted the company had been targeting $50 to $100 million of revenue for the second half of 2025.
Detailed Discussion8 topics
Macro backdrop and stock reaction
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It's been a risk-off week across the market; high-growth, high-beta names including ASTS have been coming off despite the SatCo news, in part because of the ongoing US government shutdown finally impacting markets and a more balanced/hawkish tone from Fed Chair Powell, who said another rate cut is not a given and the Fed needs to reassess incoming data.
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Because the government is shut down, private-sourced data (e.g., payroll numbers) is being used in place of unavailable government data like jobs and inflation reports, adding to market uncertainty; the shutdown is also delaying SEC review of filings, including S-1s and SPAC reviews for companies looking to go public.
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Anpanman views the current pullback as healthy profit-taking after stocks ran hot over the past year, and remains optimistic on the market longer term, but notes every stock (including ASTS) has beta/co-movement with the broader market that can overwhelm even very positive company-specific news in the short term.
SatCo JV structure and EU sovereignty rationale
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AST SpaceMobile and Vodafone put out a press release with new SatCo JV details: Vodafone (plus any additional EU MNO partners who join) will control and hold a majority stake in SatCo, while AST will be the minority owner, providing the satellites and operations.
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The EU's push for a sovereign, fully European-controlled satellite solution stems largely from concerns raised during Russia's invasion of Ukraine, when Starlink's use by Ukrainian forces reportedly saw the network turned off at certain points depending on SpaceX's comfort level -- a red flag that pushed the EU toward wanting complete control over its own data and network sovereignty.
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It's unclear whether some portion of the Block 3 mid-band BlueBirds (the L- and S-band-focused satellites) will be an entirely separate shell exclusively dedicated to Europe, or whether satellites within the same shell will simply be handed over to European operational control while flying over Europe and handed back elsewhere -- Anpanman flagged this as still ambiguous from the press release.
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AST has filed with the ITU, registering the mid-band constellation entity through Germany.
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Anpanman does not know AST's exact ownership percentage in SatCo (guessing it could be 49% or 40%), but guesses economics could be roughly a 50/50 split of whatever SatCo generates, split further with Vodafone and partners based on usage location -- explicitly framed as a guess.
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Because SatCo is a separate legal entity, it can independently raise capital -- other MNOs (and potentially governments) could buy an ownership stake in the JV, giving significant funding flexibility.
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SatCo will have full sovereignty, an operational kill switch, ground stations, and a control center -- making it, in Anpanman's characterization, a truly European solution rather than one controlled from the US.
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SatCo will be headquartered in Luxembourg, with a European operational center in Germany and R&D/production/assembly in Spain; Anpanman speculated components might be assembled in the US and shipped to Spain for final assembly before launch on an Ariane 6 rocket.
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SatCo has interest from MNOs across 21 EU member states, per the company's reiteration in the release.
EU 2 GHz MSS spectrum reallocation and competitive landscape (EchoStar, Inmarsat/Viasat, Globalstar)
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SatCo will formally pursue an allocation of 2 GHz MSS spectrum in the EU, which comes up for reallocation in May 2027; the total available is 60 MHz (two paired 30 MHz bands), currently held by two US entities: EchoStar and Viasat/Inmarsat.
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Anpanman's guess is SatCo gets at least a 10x10 MHz paired allocation (uplink/downlink), with an upside scenario of 15x15 MHz, reasoning that the EU likely wants at least 2-3 spectrum players and SatCo's broad MNO backing makes it hard to exclude; at 10x10 MHz, he estimates roughly 40 Mbps of downlink and a similar ~40 Mbps of uplink speed based on spectral efficiency -- explicitly a spitball estimate.
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On Globalstar's earnings call the day before (around Nov 6, 2025), management said it doesn't comment on press reports about spectrum/SatCo, while emphasizing being first to assemble global spectrum and hinting it may lease out the roughly 15% of satellite capacity not contractually obligated to Apple -- Anpanman speculated this could be aimed at SpaceX, AST, or used as leverage/a sale angle, though he's uncertain which.
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Globalstar also said some spectrum holders who 'purchased spectrum recently' may not retain rights going forward, which Anpanman interpreted as an implicit reference to EchoStar's spectrum facing the May 2027 EU reallocation risk.
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Based on his own surface-level research, EchoStar runs only a narrowband IoT network on its EU 2 GHz spectrum today with maybe a few thousand devices and no separately reported revenue line, which Anpanman thinks gives it a weak case to keep its spectrum allocation in 2027.
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By contrast, Inmarsat and Viasat run an active pan-European airline-connectivity network on their 2 GHz spectrum with smooth handoffs to terrestrial networks, which Anpanman believes gives them a stronger case for reallocation; his overall prediction is Inmarsat/Viasat retain some allocation, EchoStar likely loses out, and AST/SatCo gets roughly a 10x10 MHz allocation.
Comparison to Iris (EU constellation) and Starlink
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The EU has proposed its own Iris satellite constellation program estimated to cost over €10 billion, with a decent amount of planned functionality focused on direct-to-device connectivity; Anpanman argues it will be hard for the EU not to favor SatCo given how far along AST/Vodafone already are, and cites an unnamed AST SpaceMobile person's comment that this SatCo announcement 'makes Iris kind of dead on arrival,' which he agrees with.
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Anpanman believes Starlink faces two headwinds in Europe: political unpopularity tied to Elon Musk's involvement in European politics, and a technical/architectural issue -- Starlink's regenerative satellite network doesn't respect national borders (beams aren't fixed cells and can hand data between countries), which conflicts with EU sovereignty requirements; he speculated a future Starlink V3 satellite generation might address this but is uncertain.
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Anpanman noted reports that SpaceX's Starlink V3 satellites will add data center capabilities on top of fixed wireless and direct-to-device functions, and expressed skepticism about whether adding so much functionality to one satellite platform will hurt performance ('doer of all but master of none'), while cautioning that not all announced SpaceX satellite features tend to materialize on schedule.
PPDR emergency services, funding mechanisms, and Ligado/Inmarsat L-band dispute
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SatCo will also pursue public protection and disaster relief (PPDR) connectivity for Europe, branded the 'EU Critical Communication System' -- something Anpanman says Europe doesn't currently have -- combining terrestrial MNO cellular spectrum with the pursued 2 GHz MSS spectrum; specific PPDR frequencies named in the release are 698-703 MHz, 753-758 MHz, 733-736 MHz, and 788-791 MHz, all cellular spectrum AST's Block 2 satellites can already use.
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Anpanman cited the 2025 Spain floods, where terrestrial cell towers went down, as an example of why Europe needs a satellite emergency-response backup network.
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Potential SatCo funding sources include a share of the EU's roughly €10 billion Iris program budget, Import-Export Bank funding, EU MNO prepayments, and direct MNO/government investment into SatCo; Anpanman also noted that using Europe's Ariane launch vehicle becomes more economically viable given subsidies available for launches backed by European governments or commercial entities.
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There is an ongoing legal dispute in which Inmarsat argues its interpretation of the Ligado agreement precludes AST from pursuing L-band spectrum globally; Anpanman disagrees with Inmarsat's interpretation, noting that MNOs themselves (not AST directly) can pursue L-band spectrum on their own, as Saudi Telecom did by winning 60 MHz of S-band spectrum in its own auction (with L-band spectrum still unallocated in Saudi Arabia), which AST can then light up for the MNO; he suggested SatCo or Vodafone could similarly pursue L-band spectrum in Europe and lease it back to AST as a workaround.
News timing and overall framing
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The SatCo news was released Friday morning European time, two weeks after the Saudi Telecom announcement and just ahead of Monday's Q3 2025 earnings call, which Anpanman guesses was timed so the market could digest the SatCo news over the weekend before a likely deeper discussion on the earnings call.
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Anpanman called the SatCo announcement a 'game-changing' development that puts AST SpaceMobile and Vodafone in pole position to win an EU 2 GHz spectrum allocation in May 2027, arguing it satisfies every EU requirement (sovereignty, local ownership/operation, existing MNO buy-in) better than any alternative from Inmarsat/Viasat, EchoStar, or Starlink.
Audience Q&A
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Asked whether Block 2 satellites already address EU sovereignty concerns, making this announcement just confirmation of future Block 3 mid-band satellites, Anpanman said Block 2 does alleviate a lot of sovereignty concerns but this SatCo announcement goes further by proposing a fully European-owned/operated entity, which he calls the 'gold standard' for what European regulators want.
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Asked what it means for SatCo to 'own' satellites given satellites are normally shared globally, Anpanman explained SatCo (a European entity) will have ownership of a select number of satellites exclusively providing coverage over Europe, which makes economic sense because of European funding plus a 2 GHz spectrum allocation Anpanman guesses could be worth roughly $10-20 billion 'off the top of his head' -- an explicit guess -- which would make any satellite deployment cost look minuscule by comparison.
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Asked about a rumor from a James Altucher newsletter that Elon Musk could try to buy AST SpaceMobile, Anpanman dismissed it as an unverified rumor from a newsletter known for sensational claims, noting founder Abel Avellan holds voting control and cannot be forced to sell, is personally mission-driven (having grown up in a poor area of Venezuela) rather than motivated by a payout, and that a SpaceX acquisition of AST would likely be blocked as anti-competitive since regulators and governments generally want at least 2-3 competing satellite direct-to-device providers.
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Asked whether the Space session could be listened to later, Anpanman confirmed it is recorded and that podcast operator Redrum separately re-publishes these Spaces as podcast episodes for easier listening.
Recent catalysts recap and earnings preview
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Over roughly the prior three weeks, catalysts included: the Verizon definitive commercial agreement, incorporation of AST's new Ligado L-band and S-band spectrum into the next 3GPP release (meaning support gets built into handsets), and the Saudi Telecom (stc) 10-year agreement worth at least $1.8 billion including minimum revenue commitments, which Anpanman estimates could represent a book of business worth a few hundred million dollars a year from stc alone, despite Saudi Arabia not being one of the larger mobile markets.
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Anpanman noted that Bank of America reportedly has roughly a $200 million revenue target for AST for around 2026 or 2027, and suggested the Saudi Telecom deal alone could account for that entire figure.
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AST's Q3 2025 results were due to be reported the next day (with the earnings call the following Monday), which Anpanman expects to be the company's first quarter of meaningful revenue and to include Q4 guidance; he reiterated the company has been targeting $50 to $100 million of revenue in the second half of 2025.
Watch Items4
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AST SpaceMobile Q3 2025 earnings call, including first quarter of meaningful revenue and Q4 2025 guidance
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EU 2 GHz MSS spectrum reallocation decision (60 MHz total, currently held by EchoStar and Inmarsat/Viasat)
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SatCo JV commercial service go-live in Europe
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SatCo mid-band (Block 3) constellation launches begin
Open Questions5
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Will the SatCo-dedicated Block 3 mid-band satellites be an entirely separate satellite shell exclusive to Europe, or will satellites from a shared shell simply be handed off to European operational control while flying over Europe?
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What exact ownership percentage split will AST versus Vodafone/EU MNO partners hold in the SatCo JV, and how will the economics of usage-based revenue be split among partners?
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How will the legal dispute between Inmarsat and AST over whether the Ligado agreement precludes AST from pursuing L-band spectrum globally ultimately be resolved?
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Will the EU allocate SatCo a 10x10 MHz or a larger 15x15 MHz paired spectrum block in the May 2027 2 GHz reallocation, and will the EU select two or three total spectrum players?
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What will Starlink/SpaceX propose to EU regulators to address sovereignty and border-control concerns ahead of the 2027 spectrum decision?
Raw Transcript
Show full transcript
[00:00:06] Speaker A: This is the AST SpaceMobile Podcast. It will just basically come to your phone and be seamless regardless of where you are. We don't want the user even to know that it's connected by satellite. Listen, the opportunity that we have is very, very, very large. [00:00:29] Speaker B: Hey everyone, thanks for joining on short notice. We've got some big news today and I just wanted to cover it. Also, I guess for everyone, obviously it's a crappy macro environment. It's been risk-off the entire week. High growth, high beta names have been coming off. And so— [00:00:49] Speaker A: Sorry, Scott. [00:00:51] Speaker B: I think a decent amount of it has to do with the government shutdown finally, you know, coming, having an impact on the market as well as the interest rate picture. Before, I think it was pretty dovish, whereas then Powell this last week came out and gave a more balanced overview saying that another cut was not a given and that they would have to reassess information as it comes. based off of data that has come since. And obviously, you know, the other thing that's exacerbating this is the fact that the government shut down. So a lot of the information about the market is keying off of is all private, like payroll numbers and other data that's non-government sourced because the government's closed. So we can't get jobs data, inflation, any of that stuff. So I think the uncertainty in the market is kind of snowballing and the sooner the government comes out of shutdown, the better. And, you know, this impacts a lot of things. For example, at the SEC, they can't review filings. And so some of these companies that are looking to go public that have S-1 reviews or SPACs that have reviews, those are getting delayed as well. But yeah, there's a whole host of reasons for the market de-risking at this point. And quite candidly, it's probably healthy that there's some profit taking because a lot of these stocks have run quite hot over the past year. And so I think having a pullback is pretty normal and healthy and helps build a base for the next move, which, you know, I'm still pretty optimistic on the market. And so anyway, the market's going to do what it's going to do. Every stock has some element of beta, you know, co-movement with the market. And so we're seeing that, especially with our favorite stock, AST SpaceMobile, even in the face of very positive news. You can't really fight the tape. So anyway, a rarity this morning, the companies AST and Vodafone announced some very important information. Regarding the Satco JV in particular, I'll just go through kind of the key points that I put in a tweet. But yeah, I mean, the key piece of information is that for all intents and purposes, it looks like Vodafone and AST Swiss Mobile and any additional MNO partners they sign up for Satco JV, which is this joint venture where AST is going to be a Vodafone's going to own a majority of that entity. AST's going to be kind of the minority owner, but will provide the satellites and operations. But for all intents and purposes, that SatCo JV's going to be controlled by Vodafone and any other EU members that— EU companies or MNOs, that is, that join. And the reason why that's important is that the EU is very focused on sovereignty. So they want to have data sovereignty, any information that's collected from the EU, whether that's calls, videos, data that needs to originate in the EU and land back in the EU. Of course, if it's going elsewhere, then it's going elsewhere, but they want to have complete control of that. The reason why this whole topic became more acute is that during Russia's invasion of Ukraine, The use of Starlink was pretty prevalent among the Ukrainian forces. And then, you know, depending on who you talk to or what you believe, it seems as if based off of how SpaceX wanted things to go or what they weren't comfortable with, they turned off the network at certain points in time. And so I think that was a big red flag for the EU in that they need to have a solution that they have complete control over. And so SATCO JV initially was formed to do that, but now we're starting to see the outlines and the details of what SATCO JV is, right? So in particular today, there was a big press release which gave more information. And so I'll just kind of go through some of the points here. The key thing is that, and this is backed up by some of the research we've done, But it sounds like either a portion of the Block 3 mid-band Bluebirds, this is the Bluebirds that will be focused on L and S-band spectrum, some portion of that is going to be exclusively dedicated to the European Union and their operations there. And so are those satellites, do that mean that they're going to go dark over other places and just light back up over Europe? That's one possibility. [00:05:36] Speaker A: Yeah. [00:05:38] Speaker B: Like that's true exclusive use. Or when they do fly over Europe, then they will be handed over to European operations. And then when they are out of Europe, they will be handed off to other areas. And so it's a little unclear if it's— this is actually an entirely new shell of satellites that will just be focused on Europe, or it's just some, some portion of time that'll be allocated to Europe or part of the same shell, but it's just that those particular satellites within the shell are going to be dedicated to Europe. But anyway, whatever it takes, I think is the key here where this, that co-JV, whatever gets European, the European Union comfortable, I think they're going to pursue. And, you know, I think some people had questions this morning about whether that makes economic sense. It does. And I'll explain why. Why shortly here? But yeah, so the other thing is AST filed with the ITU. They're registering this entity through Germany and this mid-band constellation. The joint, as I mentioned before, the Satco joint venture will be controlled by Vodafone and other EU companies. AST will have a minority stake. If that's 49%, 40%, I mean, I don't really know at this point, but obviously They are going to ASU in the economic, and my guess it will be 50% of whatever's generated by SACTO JV, and then the other 50% will go to Vodafone and its partners depending on where the usage is happening. But yeah, there's a lot of ways to split this pie. And the other interesting thing about the SACTO JV is that because you have this new entity, It allows for that entity to raise capital. And so MNOs can come in and buy an ownership piece of that JV. Also, perhaps even governments as well could invest. I mean, there's a whole host of ways you can structure this, but it gives you a ton of flexibility. And that's, I think the key thing here is that today the 2 entities that control S-band spectrum in Europe are 2 US entities. One is EchoStar, And the other one is Inmarsat. And I'll talk a bit more about that in a little bit. But yeah, the key thing is that this SACTO-JV will have full sovereignty and a kill switch and operational control, ground stations, control center, all that stuff. And so this truly is going to be a European solution, which— When you look at how Europe is thinking about the world, they've already put forward this proposal for the Iris constellation, which is going to cost over €10 billion, at least that's what they think. And a decent amount of that functionality is going to be focused on direct-to-device. And so they're thinking about just researching and starting up a whole new constellation themselves from scratch. Whereas I think it's going to be pretty difficult to not consider SATCO JV to step in the shoes of what they need. Because it's already, you know, if you've got a large number of European MNOs that are backing this, who ultimately have control of the customer anyway, and will be distributing service. And then, you know, this service as well is going to provide emergency services, just like FirstNet in the US, and of course, probably military services as well. Why would you build another constellation that's going to cost a lot of money that has no guarantee of success, whereas these guys are pretty much far along down the road? But yeah, so a very important point is that this entity, and now we see it formally in a press release, they are going to pursue 2 GHz MSS spectrum in the EU that comes up for reallocation. That spectrum is 60 MHz in total. It's 2 30 by 30 paired bands, and that comes up for reallocation in May of 2027. As I mentioned before, the 2 key holders of that are, one is Viasat/Inmarsat, and the other one is EchoStar. I think given the structure of this JV and all the MNO partners involved who have a ton of subscribers and are well positioned, I think it's going to be hard for the EU not to give Satco JV an allocation. My guess is at least 10 by 10 megahertz of pair band, 10 by 10 megahertz of uplink and downlink spectrum. And it's interesting because you're seeing some Kind of veiled threats already around this yesterday in Globalstar's earnings call where they, I guess the first I would mention that they specifically said, we've seen the press out there and we make it a policy not to comment on it, which is kind of funny because they're the ones who floated the rumors. It's kind of a fun game they're playing there. But if you listen to the Globalstar call, they pretty much tried to emphasize We were the first to put together a global spectrum and we have a ton of strategic value. And they're basically trying to shop the 15% of capacity that is not being used by, that is not contractually obligated to Apple. And so they kind of hinted at potentially even leasing out that 15% to somebody else. Now, whether that's SpaceX or AST or somebody else, who knows? But it's clear that seems like to me what they're trying to do. I don't know if they're going to sell the company. I mean, that is another kind of angle that they're probably trying to leverage against Apple to do something, or maybe it's a threat, but leasing out the 15% of capacity, that could make sense. And as long as they can coordinate that properly with whoever leases it, that could work. However, one of the key comments in that conference call is that they talked about how, you know, we've got Global Spectrum and some others who have certain rights. They mentioned specifically certain others who've purchased spectrum recently. They may not have rights in the future. And so when I heard that, I immediately thought of the fact that EchoStar has this reallocation coming up in May 2027. I did a little bit of surface-level research, and I think EchoStar today, for what it's worth, they run a very narrowband IoT network on that spectrum across Europe today. From what I can tell, they've got maybe a few thousand devices on it. They don't report it as a separate revenue line. And from what I can tell, it just doesn't seem like they have much traction there. And so my guess is that they're going to have a pretty tough case going in front of the EU saying, hey, we want that reallocation of the spectrum. And then the EU's going to say, well, what'd you do with it over the past decade? And they'll say, well, we have a little IoT network on it, but we promised that we're going to do a lot more with it. And then the other The other parties, Viasat and Inmarsat, they actually run a decent amount of, I guess they have a pan-European network that runs airline connectivity over that network. And so, and that is integrated with the terrestrial network too. So there's like, from what I understand, good or smooth handoffs between those 2 networks. And so it looks like they're actually using it. So my guess is that Inmarsat and Viasat probably get a reallocation. If they can make a compelling case, but I think Inmarsat, Viasat, and then EchoStar, in the face of what we are seeing being formed right now, this juggernaut, SatCo JV, I think it's going to be really hard for them to try to keep AST out. And then AST probably gets a 10 by 10 allocation. And then maybe in the upside scenario, they get 15 by 15. But I'm guessing the EU probably wants like 2 to 3 players at the minimum. They have 2, they had 2 before, but— [00:13:56] Speaker A: Yeah. [00:13:56] Speaker B: Maybe they'll do three, but at a ten megahertz allocation, you know that's that's given the spectral efficiency what A T can do. That's forty megabits of downlink speed, and and you know maybe somewhere similar forty megabits of uplink speed. But going back to EchoStar, as I mentioned before, you know when they go back to write EU regulators in 2027, the not EchoStar, but this company called Starlink. And they're going to say, well, we're going to do all these great things with that spectrum. But then the EU regulators, you know, it'll be up to them and politicians, which, you know, the CEO of, or the leader, the owner of SpaceX tends to be heavy-handed in European politics. A lot of Europeans don't like that. And so That's probably not a good thing, right? And then I think the architecture of Starlink 2 is not conducive to respecting borders in Europe because it's regenerative. These beams just kind of sloppily go over Europe, but you can't direct them. They're not fixed cells. And so maybe in version 3 of Starlink satellites, they'll come up with a solution there. But who knows? I think an important thing to remember, because the media has kind of latched onto all these capabilities that SpaceX is telling people about V3 satellites, but as we've all known in the past, and as we know in general, space is hard and you can try to pursue different features, but they take time. And A lot of what is put forward may not come to fruition. For example, this past week, I think we saw that SpaceX is going to create within V3, they're going to have data center capabilities too. And so they're just slapping on all kinds of functionality. I'm not sure how that's going to impact the satellite's performance when the satellite is doing fixed wireless, it's doing directed device, and it's becoming a data center. So kind of— [00:16:06] Speaker A: Yeah. [00:16:08] Speaker B: doer of all but master of none type of approach. So we'll see. I'm not really sure how to handicap how successful they'll be on matching some of the performance of AST space mobile satellites. But anyway, going back to the list, yeah, so AST is going to pursue 2 GHz MSS spectrum, which makes sense. And I think by having a European entity that's controlled by Europeans, funded by it, and that's going to provide broadband connectivity to all those MNOs and their customers, I think the entity is going to be uniquely positioned to win an allocation. And when it comes to the question of, well, are they going to put up an actual separate constellation and is that worth the cost? If the EU is willing to give you 10 by 10 megahertz of paired S-band spectrum, And the way that the EU does this is they don't charge you for it, they just allocate it to you. And then on a country-by-country basis, you negotiate what usage fees are there, which I think are obviously going to be reasonable. And if you are doing that with a local MNO partner, they're going to be able to make a compelling case to the local governments that we need these services. It's going to create economic activity. It's going to provide Yeah, more services for our consumers. And it also, in terms of like an emergency network response, I mean, we saw in Spain during the floods, like all the network connectivity, the terrestrial towers all went out and boy, they could have used a real satellite backup network. And so that's going to be important. But yeah, so Satco JB is going to be well positioned, as I mentioned before, and the company reiterated it today. They have interest from MNOs in 20 over across 21 EU member states. And so that's really solid. That's good. And then because of this entity that's going to be European-based, you know, it's going to have Luxembourg headquarters, operational center in Germany and research and operations and production in Spain. That becomes a very attractive solution for Europe. And so what are the benefits? Well, EU governments, for example, as I mentioned before, the €10 billion IRIS program, some portion of that they could get funding. There's Import Export Bank funding as well. And then, you know, you have EU M&O prepayments and potential investment into Saco JV. And then the other interesting kind of wrinkle here is that Ariane, that launch vehicle becomes what is now economically kind of marginal for them to go potentially try to use Ariane. When you're doing launches that are backed by European governments or commercial entities, then I think there's subsidies that are available for Ariane. So having another launch vehicle, that is a very big positive as well. The other thing that was kind of released in this news today is the fact that they are seeking to provide public protection and disaster relief, which is called PPDR connectivity in Europe. And so from what I understand, I don't think Europe has any of that today, but by leveraging terrestrial, you know, the MNO cellular spectrum, they can do that. And then by layering on top of this, that this MSS spectrum, the 2 GHz, then that system becomes really robust. And so this is a big kind of mission for the EU. They call it EU Critical Communication System. And as we all know, there's a lot of European countries, a lot of different interests. Trying to bring everybody together to come up with a solution that's economic and actually works is tough. But by having Vodafone lead the charge and, you know, AST SpaceMobile providing the tech, you're able to go to European governments and say, hey, look, we've got a turnkey solution now and it's going to go live in 2026 and the mid-band constellation is going to start going up in 2027. Use this. And so I don't think it's going to be, this is going to be the end-all. I'm sure Europe's going to still develop something, but this is going to be a critical piece. Or maybe on the upside, this does become the FirstNet of Europe, which I think, especially given what's happened in Ukraine and having a defense capability and we've seen all the puzzle pieces, right? Like AST SpaceMobile through Fairwinds and other primes, Has already been doing work with NATO, and so yeah, puzzle pieces are all there. Like this is going to be a solution for Europe. Let's see here. So as I mentioned before, and it's kind of cool that they outlined it here, they talk about how Satco will be you know leveraging existing carrier MNO or sorry MNO cellular spectrum, which is. What Block 2 constellation will be doing. And then, you know, they will also be able to use that, that the Block 2 satellites to deploy PPDR emergency coverage, which they outline the exact frequencies, which is 698 to 703, 753 to 758, and then 733 to 736 and 788 to 791 megahertz spectrum. This is all cellular spectrum that can be used by the satellites that we are on the cusp of deploying. So that coupled with the 2 gigahertz that hopefully they can get an allocation, that's going to be huge. The other thing is, I guess another thing I'll mention is that for the people who are really detail-oriented, there is some legal dispute between Inmarsat and AST SpaceMobile where Inmarsat, who holds some of these L and S-band licenses around the world. They say that through this Legato agreement, which I think they're wrong, but through their interpretation of what they had all negotiated, precludes AST from pursuing L-band spectrum globally. Whereas I think what's interesting, and we kind of learned this from Saudi Telecom, is that I don't think that precludes MNOs from pursuing, obviously, well, MNOs can pursue L-band spectrum on their own, which is what Saudi Telecom did in their auctions. I'm sorry, they pursued S-band spectrum in their auction in Saudi Arabia, and this is 2 GHz, but then L-band spectrum is unused in Saudi Arabia. And so I'm guessing that Saudi Telecom will get their hands on that as well. And so they have 60 MHz of S-band because they won the entire thing exclusively, and then they will probably get the L-band as well. And then AST System Mobile will be able to light up both of those in Saudi Arabia, which is going to be very powerful. And I think also in other countries where Saudi Telecom has coverage. And so what's interesting about Safco JV is that either Safco JV or Vodafone directly can pursue LDAN spectrum probably, and then lease that back out to AST, which Whether or not whose argument, legal argument has higher standing or who's going to win that, ultimately I think that can be settled through economic means or also I think just by the very nature of AST SpaceMobile's partners globally, MNOs could just pursue L-band spectrum and just lease it back to them. And so that kind of gets around that potential hurdle. Although I think there'll probably be some worked out solution in the future. But anyway, today, huge news. It's interesting that all this news was released on Friday morning European time. And of course we have earnings update on Monday. And so my guess is they got the Saudi Telecom news out when they did, which was 2 weeks ago. And then they got this news out today, Friday, on the dawn, or sorry, the eve of earnings because there's probably going to be a lot more stuff to cover on Monday. And you probably, you know, they probably want the news cycle to digest this information over the weekend and then they can talk about it hopefully in more detail on Monday. But yeah, this is a game-changing announcement. I think this puts AST SpaceMobile and more importantly, Vodafone and its partners in the pole position to get an S-band spectrum allocation in May of 2027. I mean, if you kind of go through a list of what Europe wants from their solution and the key thing being sovereignty, but something that's locally owned, operated, has the buy-in of MNOs locally that are not going to have to compete, but are deploying the solution seamlessly and providing to their customers. Like, this ticks every single box. And the benefit for AST is that they are going to get that 2 GHz spectrum allocation. It opens up more launch options. It opens up a whole new host of funding alternatives as well. And so I think when you compare, and maybe I'll do this at some point over the weekend, but if you compare SACO JV, compare that to what perhaps, I guess, Inmarsat, Viasat could put forward. I mean, they're not working with them in any MNOs. And then you think about what EchoStar is doing today. It's a small IoT network. And then of course Starlink is going to step into those shoes. It'll be interesting to see what Starlink proposes to the EU to try to quell their fears around sovereignty. Because I think for the people who know AST SpaceMobile well, they already know this information, but for those that don't, Starlink runs a totally separate network. And so they don't integrate into the MNO core. Your information goes into the Starlink network. It can be passed around to different satellites and over different countries and landed in a different country. And so, and Starlink has full control of that, right? And so the EU, my guess is that any proposal they put forward is going to be dead on arrival because that's not attractive for EU regulators. They want something that's fully owned by Europe and controlled by Europe. And this ticks every single box. And And AST has been, it's like a master plan, right? They're playing chess. They, they have, uh, R&D facilities in Europe. They've got a production, like a massive production facility in, in, um, in Spain. And so maybe they'll like assemble some components in the US, but then they'll ship it to Spain and they'll assemble it all there. And then they'll go throw it up on an Ariane 6 rocket. I mean, there's a whole host of like ways that they can make European regulators super happy. And so the key thing is getting that spectrum. And I think they're, they've really positioned themselves well. And so, you know, whether coming out of the, that 2027 reallocation, if there's 2 players that are selected or 3 players, I, I can almost guarantee, or I would bet, you know, I already, I already am placing a massive bet, but I think AST SpaceMobile will be one of those players. And that's going to be massive, right? And I think the company has talked about this in the past where there will be multiple shells. And so there's going to be a low-band constellation shell, a mid-band constellation shell. And then, you know, we've talked about it jokingly in the community, but I mean, actually seriously that there could be a military shell, like not Bluebirds, but Blackbirds. And maybe even particular governments, if they're willing to pay for it, they might get a specific shell. When you have ramped up to what will be initially 6 satellites per month, but then eventually 12 satellites per month, once you finish the constellation, that capacity can be used productively for additional satellites and shells. And so, yeah, it's an exciting time. Maybe I'll pause there. The market's about to open. Let me just see if there's any questions. Let's see. Aren't Block 2 satellites already designated to satisfy sovereignty concerns? If so, this announcement is nothing more than saying there will be Block 3 satellites that can use mid-band spectrum. Block 2 does alleviate a lot of sovereignty concerns, but I think the companies are going a step further today and putting forward this notion of a fully European solution. Which I think, as I mentioned before, like for European regulators and companies, like that's like the gold standard, right? Like that's what they're trying to achieve. And so putting that in front of European regulators, I just, I can't see them trying to develop their own homegrown solution. I think one of the AST SpaceMobile people had put it well, like this makes Iris kind of dead on arrival. I actually agree with that. Like I think This is going to be the European solution. I think there's a high probability of that. And gosh, what a masterful stroke, right? Like these guys have been cooking this up for well over a year. And yeah, so I think the current technology, it does guarantee sovereignty, but it's still owned by AST. But this is a true European solution. And I think it's what Europe wants. And so yeah, I think we're well positioned to win that business. Let's see, what does it mean to have your own constellation? Do they own some satellites? Because satellites are supposed to be shared across the world. Do they own it when it's just around Europe? I did cover that before. It could be a whole host of different ways to kind of cut it. But I think what this press release, just my opinion, what it means is that Satco JV is a European entity. It will have ownership of a select number of satellites that will provide coverage over Europe. And those satellites will be exclusive to Europe. And economically, that makes sense because the economic return on those satellites will be very high. You'll get European funding for them. And then the most important thing is that you'll get a spectrum allocation, which we know spectrum 2 gigahertz of 10 by 10 paired MSS spectrum or 15 by 15 paired, that's worth multiple billions of dollars. Like, I don't know, maybe $10, $20 billion just off the top of my head. That would make any expenditure in the satellites to deploy that minuscule, right? If you can imagine the amount of, you know, 100% coverage, this is not, this is actually overlapping coverage to the terrestrial network. But yeah, the economics that are going to be staggering. So I think that's going to be well worth it. Could Elon at some point try to buy AST? I heard a rumor from Altucher. Okay, so there was this newsletter, supposedly the rumor from this guy James Altucher. He's this guy who has like a newsletter and he sells subscriptions by kind of saying outrageous things. And I remember during cryptocurrency, like during when Bitcoin was kind of taken off, maybe it was like 10 years ago, his newsletter was all over it and he was claiming to be like one of the first people to buy it. But anyway, I don't think AST, well, first of all, Abel Avalon has voting control, so no one can come in and try to muscle their way, buy shares and try to force the company to sell itself because he has full full control of the company. And he's not, you know, Abel is not playing for $100 or $200. Like he's looking to truly build the next trillion-dollar company. And this opportunity for him is more personal in that he wants to connect the unconnected, just given his background, having grown up in a poor area of Venezuela. This is not, he's not selling. And I don't think I think SpaceX is going to do just fine on their own. They're going to develop a solution. There's going to be 2 players. But I think even from a regulatory standpoint, I don't think SpaceX would be allowed to buy AST SpaceMobile. Perhaps somebody else who's not involved in satellite communications, but in particular that deal, SpaceX trying to buy AST SpaceMobile seems really anti-competitive versus— but the US government and what governments around the world and what businesses want around the world, which is choice. They want at least 2 choices, perhaps 3. And so I just don't think it makes sense. Is there a way to listen to these Spaces later? Yes, there is. This is recorded so you can just play it back later. And then there's a wonderful AST SpaceMobile member, Redrum. He actually records these as podcasts. And so when he records this one and others that have happened in the past, you can just go back and listen to 'em, which is probably more convenient than having to use Twitter's interface to listen to it. But yeah, you can listen to it. It's being recorded anyway. I'll pause there. I think that's probably a decent enough kind of overview of what was announced today. I get it, the market sucks, it's risk-off, and you know, some people are like, well, why isn't the stock reacting to this news? Well, I don't think any stocks or most stocks in particular are reacting to positive news. And it's right now until I think the US government comes back online, reopens that, and we get a Federal Reserve, which I think after seeing some of the recent economic data, I think it's going to be compelling enough for them to continue to cut rates. I think without those 2 things, like the right now, the investing environment is not very constructive. But from what we've seen, it sounds like the US government is going to be reopened fairly soon. Fingers crossed. So we'll see. But in the meantime, yeah, just stay focused. Like, this is a huge step forward and we've got a quarterly update on Monday. And so yeah, it's a very exciting time and yeah, the market stinks, but that will be, I think that will be temporary. But what we know is there's a significant amount of catalysts that are coming out for the company. And when you kind of think back on the last 3 weeks, Verizon definitive agreement, you know, we basically got all of our spectrum, the new Ligado spectrum and S-band spectrum that we're pursuing, all of that's been incorporated into the next 3GPP release. And that means into handsets. And then Saudi Telecom, 10-year agreement worth at least $1.8 billion. There's minimum revenue commitments there, which is insane. I mean, the company already has a book of business, which is probably going to be a few hundred million a year from Saudi Telecom as one of the anchor tenants. And Saudi Arabia is not even like one of your bigger mobile markets, but yeah, just imagine building more of these together, right? And it's kind of funny because like, I think someone pointed out Bank of America has like a $200 million revenue target for maybe like 2026 or 2027. That's Saudi Telecom is going to be just that piece in and of itself. But yeah, so we had that news last week and then of course this news today and we've got an earnings update on Monday. So. Anyway, markets suck. Hang in there. This is kind of the day-to-day noise. Make sure you're not on margin so that you can hang in there and ride the volatility. And yeah, we'll see what happens on Monday when the company announces quarterly update and gives guidance on, you know, that will be our first quarter of real revenue. You know, the cart, as I mentioned, As the company has mentioned before, they're targeting $50 to $100 million of revenue in the second half of this year. So obviously Q3 is being reported tomorrow and Q4 they'll be guiding to some extent. But yeah, it'll be a very interesting call and yeah, an exciting time. But anyway, I'll pause there. We'll do this again probably sometime after the quarterly update. And I'm going to dig into the announcement today a bit more and think about more of the applications. But, um, yeah, thanks for catching up everyone, and we'll talk again soon. [00:37:40] Speaker A: Thanks for listening to the AST SpaceMobile podcast. If you enjoyed this episode and you'd like to help support the podcast, please share it with others, post about it on social media, or leave a rating and review. To catch all the latest news about AST SpaceMobile, make sure to subscribe. Thanks again, and I'll see you next time. We're doing something very, very big. Connecting with this technology, we can really affect a billion lives. AST SpaceMobile is the only company that has proven technology to deliver cellular broadband connectivity directly from space to the everyday smartphone. People will just basically turn on their phone and be seamless regardless of where you are. We don't want the user even to know that it's connected by satellite. Our role is to bring this into reality, always in partnership with the NMOs. Listen. Mmm, waffles.
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