Episode

Anpanman - The $10 Billion Space Race: Amazon, Globalstar, and the Future of AST SpaceMobile

2026-04-14 39:22 Anpanman

In this solo X Spaces episode, Anpanman reacts to Amazon's same-day announcement that it is acquiring Globalstar for $90 in cash and stock.

He argues the deal, alongside SpaceX's $23 billion spectrum spend, massively validates the direct-to-device market. If anything, it raises AST SpaceMobile's strategic value as the last major independent D2D operator that MNOs and spectrum-less Big Tech firms (Google, Meta) can still partner with.

He walks through AST's 80-year Ligado spectrum lease economics and shares newly leaked Starlink/SpaceX profitability figures. He gives a manufacturing update confirming a new shipment of composite rings arrived at Midland via Antonov cargo plane for Block 2 BlueBird production, plus context on the pending Blue Origin New Glenn static fire and BlueBird 7 launch.

His headline conclusion: Amazon's entry is a competitive validation, not a threat, and he doesn't expect Abel Avellan to sell AST despite the wave of consolidation around it.

Key Takeaways

  • Amazon announced it is acquiring satellite operator Globalstar for $90 per share in cash and stock (with a cap on the stock portion and a shareholder election), a deal Anpanman expects to close in 2027 after a lengthy FCC/DOJ antitrust review.
  • Anpanman argues the deal, combined with SpaceX reportedly spending $23 billion on spectrum, proves the direct-to-device satellite market is much bigger than skeptics believed, since two of the largest tech/space companies are now committing over $10 billion combined to enter or expand in it.
  • Amazon plans to keep funding replenishment of Globalstar's existing constellation (a plus for satellite-builder MDA Space in the near term) while developing its own next-generation direct-to-device satellites targeting a 2028 launch, which Anpanman thinks could slip to 2029-2030 based on Amazon's LEO broadband track record.
  • Anpanman believes AST SpaceMobile's remaining independence — not being owned by a Big Tech company that could compete with mobile carriers — is now a bigger strategic asset, because MNOs and companies like Google and Meta (which lack their own D2D network) are wary of partnering with Starlink or an Amazon-owned Globalstar.
  • He estimates AST's 80-year, 45 MHz Ligado L-band spectrum lease covering the US and Canada could be worth roughly $20 billion once fully deployed, out of what he pegs as AST's roughly $38 billion enterprise value — his own back-of-envelope estimate, not an official figure.
  • A leaked article citing SpaceX's confidential S-1 shows Starlink generated $11.4 billion in revenue and $7.2 billion in profit, versus $4.1 billion in revenue and only $700 million in profit for SpaceX's launch business, illustrating that satellite connectivity, not rockets, is now SpaceX's profit engine.
  • Anpanman confirmed (corroborated by Midland Spaceport) that an Antonov cargo plane delivered a new batch of next-generation composite rings, sourced from an Indian composites manufacturer, to Midland for AST's Block 2 BlueBird satellites (BlueBird 14-20), after AST resolved a ring-manufacturing 'stacking issue' back in February.
  • AST has stayed quiet on launch timing because it is waiting for a successful Blue Origin New Glenn static fire before announcing a date; the real (non-dummy) BlueBird 7 (FM2) payload is already mounted on the rocket, with a launch expected roughly three days after a successful static fire.

Detailed Discussion8 topics

Amazon's Acquisition of Globalstar

8
  • Anpanman Confirmed 00:00:28

    Amazon announced it is buying Globalstar for $90 in cash and stock, with a shareholder election and a limit on how much of the consideration can be paid in stock; Anpanman's guess is the transaction closes in 2027.

  • Anpanman Speculation 00:00:28

    He expects the regulatory review to be long — 'at a minimum, maybe 9 months' — covering FCC review and likely DOJ antitrust scrutiny, which he thinks will cause the deal to trade at a wide spread.

  • Anpanman Speculation 00:00:28

    He thinks a rival SpaceX bid to top Amazon's offer post-IPO would be 'kind of like a fool's errand' since SpaceX would be competing against Amazon's balance sheet, so he doesn't expect that to happen, though he calls it 'possible.'

  • Anpanman Confirmed 00:00:28

    For bears who say the direct-to-device market is too small, he points to SpaceX spending $23 billion on spectrum and Amazon paying 'well over $10 billion' for Globalstar, a legacy satellite company, as proof of the market's scale.

  • Anpanman Untagged 00:00:28

    Background: Globalstar had become 'a bit of an albatross' for Apple, whose satellite-service ambitions Globalstar couldn't keep pace with as Starlink and AST SpaceMobile surpassed its capabilities; Amazon's capital and LEO know-how, in partnership with Apple, is meant to fix that.

  • Anpanman Speculation 00:00:28

    He calls the Apple-Amazon arrangement 'a bit of an odd marriage' since the two are consumer competitors elsewhere (and Amazon has discussed re-entering the phone/AI-device market), meaning conflict could grow later, but 'at least for this particular business, they seem to have worked out something.'

  • Anpanman Speculation 00:00:28

    Amazon will continue paying for replenishment of the current Globalstar constellation, which he calls 'a mild positive for MDA Space,' Globalstar's satellite manufacturer.

  • Anpanman Company Guidance 00:00:28

    Per the press release, Amazon plans to develop its own direct-to-device satellite that would take over after the current Globalstar constellation's replenishment cycle, with Amazon 'saying that they're going to try to launch sometime in 2028'; Anpanman guesses, based on Amazon's LEO broadband development timeline, this 'probably going to be maybe 1 to 2 years later than they expect.'

Competitive Landscape and AST's Strategic Value

9
  • Anpanman Speculation 00:00:28

    He identifies AST SpaceMobile and Starlink as the current market leaders, with Amazon becoming 'a late player, but very powerful player' once its service launches.

  • Anpanman Speculation 00:00:28

    He is unsure which US MNOs, if any, would partner with Amazon, since AT&T, Verizon, or T-Mobile might be wary given Amazon's LEO business could compete with their home-broadband (fiber/5G) offerings or eventually their wireless business; he suggests Amazon might instead pursue an MVNO-style deal or look to international MNO markets.

  • Anpanman Rumor 00:00:28

    He relays that 'an institution' told him it was 'pretty sure' Amazon had previously tried to acquire AST SpaceMobile, but says 'I have no way to validate that.'

  • Anpanman Speculation 00:00:28

    He doesn't think Abel Avellan is selling AST, and argues that staying independent is where AST's strategic value lies, since MNOs want to work with a satellite partner that isn't owned by a Big Tech company seeking to eventually compete with them for the customer relationship.

  • Anpanman Speculation 00:00:28

    He theorizes that as consolidation continues around one vertical stack (SpaceX/Starlink/xAI/Tesla) and now Amazon/Blue Origin, AST becomes the remaining independent 'one-of-one' D2D company, raising its strategic value to companies without their own D2D network like Google, Meta, OpenAI, and Microsoft (noting Google is already a strategic investor and Meta already works with AST).

  • Anpanman Speculation 00:00:28

    On Iridium: its spectrum is a single unpaired L-band swath (not paired spectrum), and only a small part is needed for Iridium's own operations; citing past comments from Iridium CEO Matt Desch, he speculates Iridium will eventually lease most of that spectrum to another player or get consolidated itself, though he doesn't know the timing.

  • Anpanman Speculation 00:00:28

    He argues antitrust review likely would have blocked a SpaceX purchase of Globalstar given Starlink's dominant LEO position, whereas Amazon's deal is more likely to be approved since Amazon's LEO business is more nascent and it has no existing direct-to-device foothold.

  • Anpanman Confirmed 00:00:28

    He cites AST's core assets: 45 MHz of L-band spectrum owned for 80 years across the US and Canada, agreements with roughly 50 MNOs globally, and Verizon and AT&T commercially 'locked up' in the US for a period of time, plus its FirstNet business.

  • Anpanman Speculation 00:00:28

    He estimates that 45 MHz Ligado spectrum position represents 'what, 20, let's just say $20 billion out of $38 billion in enterprise value' — his own rough valuation — and separately characterizes AST's military business as covering about '10 different use cases around electronic warfare, jamming, sensing, communications.'

Ligado Spectrum Value

3
  • Anpanman Speculation 00:00:28

    AST's Ligado lease runs 80 years — 'the life of that lease is going to be longer than I'm alive' — and he pegs Ligado's value, 'once it's fully deployed, let's say it's $20 billion,' explicitly framing this as his own estimate rather than a disclosed figure.

  • Anpanman Speculation 00:00:28

    He notes AST satellites are the only ones able to use that Ligado spectrum on a non-interference basis, something that had previously 'plagued Legato [Ligado] in the past,' and credits management for closing the Ligado transaction plus other MSS spectrum rights globally.

  • Anpanman Confirmed 00:33:15

    He notes Viasat has been trying 'everything legally possible' to rescind the Ligado spectrum lease deal and has been 'slapped down by the courts,' which he says shows Viasat recognizes how valuable that spectrum really is.

Starlink and SpaceX Financial Disclosures

1
  • Anpanman Confirmed 00:18:36

    Citing a The Information article believed to be based on SpaceX's confidential S-1, he reports Starlink generated $11.4 billion of revenue versus $4.1 billion for the SpaceX launch business, but Starlink's profit was $7.2 billion compared with just $700 million for the launch business — showing the profit is concentrated in connectivity, not rockets.

Amazon's D2D Ambitions and the Broader TAM

2
  • Anpanman Speculation 00:18:36

    He argues the total addressable market is broader than mobile phones — IoT devices already outnumber mobile subscribers globally and will keep growing to include drones, robots, vehicles, and tractors — which is why Amazon's entry validates rather than shrinks the opportunity.

  • Anpanman Speculation 00:18:36

    He flags that Amazon's N53 spectrum for private networks (roughly 11 MHz, power-limited) can be used for either MSS or terrestrial use, raising a possible synergy where Amazon could sell home routers using Amazon-only spectrum for better in-home service.

AST Manufacturing Update: Composite Rings

3
  • Anpanman Confirmed 00:18:36

    He explains some of AST's Block 2 delays stem from a 'stacking issue' involving new composite rings, which require heavy upfront investment and are hard to manufacture but deliver weight savings and structural rigidity once solved; AST resolved the ring issues 'back in February,' with the first batch completed and shipping this month.

  • Anpanman Confirmed 00:18:36

    He confirms — corroborated directly by Midland Spaceport — that an Antonov cargo plane that flew into Midland 'yesterday' carried a new shipment of next-generation composite rings for AST, sourced from a composites manufacturer in India, destined for BlueBird 14 through 20; he estimates '6 to 8 rings' were delivered, more than expected.

  • Anpanman Confirmed 00:18:36

    He says the first two ring batches (for BlueBird 8/9/10 and 11/12/13) are already done and shipping this month, and the newly delivered rings will become batch 3 and 4 (and maybe 5) once integrated with microns and other payload components, then tested and delivered.

Upcoming Launch: BlueBird 7 (FM2) on New Glenn

4
  • Anpanman Speculation 00:33:14

    He explains AST has been quiet because it's waiting for a successful Blue Origin New Glenn static fire before announcing a launch date, calling it 'foolish' to hype up a specific date and then have the static fire fail or need to be redone.

  • Anpanman Confirmed 00:33:15

    He notes the FM2 BlueBird 7 payload atop the rocket is the real payload, not a dummy, and that the plan is for a quick turnaround: static fire on the day of recording, followed by launch about 3 days later.

  • Anpanman Rumor 00:33:15

    He relays an unverified claim from 'someone in the NASA flight chat' that the static fire was set for around 9:20, roughly 15 minutes after his comment, and says he'll watch via a YouTube link he posted.

  • Anpanman Untagged 00:33:15

    He says he won't be able to attend the launch in person this Friday as planned because he's sick and on antibiotics, so he'll watch from home.

Listener Q&A: M&A Dynamics, AST's Acquirability, and Competitive Fallout

10
  • Anpanman Speculation 00:27:48

    Asked whether early-stage, high-potential companies get acquired on future rather than current value, he says yes, drawing a biotech analogy where companies with no revenue get acquired for billions based on Phase 2/3 trial potential.

  • Anpanman Speculation 00:27:48

    Asked if AST is acquirable given its valuation, he says it's technically acquirable but he doesn't think the company is selling, since Abel Avellan is the controlling shareholder and sees more value in continuing to build the company out.

  • Anpanman Speculation 00:27:48

    Asked about the timing of the Amazon-Globalstar announcement coinciding with AST's own satellite awaiting launch atop a Blue Origin rocket, he thinks the timing is coincidental, noting Blue Origin is a separate company from Amazon (though related).

  • Anpanman Speculation 00:27:48

    Asked what Amazon could realistically do commercially by 2028 without MNO partners, he speculates on options like a paid add-on for Apple device owners, bundling with Amazon Prime, or a roaming-style network for coverage outside MNO terrestrial footprints — while questioning whether AT&T/Verizon would allow that and what specific rights Apple retains (e.g., whether Apple still owns 85% of the network or gave that up for a service agreement, and what recourse Apple has if Amazon underdelivers).

  • Anpanman Speculation 00:27:48

    He views the deal as a net negative for MDA Space (builder of Globalstar's Aurora satellite platform), since Globalstar — having already lost EchoStar as a prospective buyer — is now likely to be phased out for an Amazon-built satellite, leaving Aurora without its anchor customer; he notes MDA Space last traded around $32.98 and says he 'might even look at shorting' the stock.

  • Anpanman Speculation 00:33:15

    Asked if this sparks an 'arms race' among the remaining Mag 7 to acquire AST, he thinks it raises strategic conversations and could prompt inbound calls to Abel Avellan about partnership, investment, or acquisition in coming quarters, but reiterates he doesn't think Abel is a seller.

  • Anpanman Speculation 00:33:15

    Asked if AST is 'going to be crushed,' he says no — MNOs will be 'very worried,' not pleased, about Amazon and Apple entering the market, which increases the importance of AST succeeding as their independent alternative.

  • Anpanman Speculation 00:33:15

    Asked if Amazon is 'now a space play,' he says partially — Amazon is a massive conglomerate (e-commerce, video/content, AWS) where space/LEO is a growing but still small piece.

  • Anpanman Speculation 00:33:15

    On Amazon's LEO execution timeline, he wouldn't be surprised if D2D entry slips well past 2028 toward 2030, citing reports that Amazon's current-generation LEO satellites have issues and may need to be retired/replaced, even as Amazon must keep deploying satellites to meet FCC constellation deployment deadlines or risk losing its license.

  • Anpanman Speculation 00:33:15

    Closing thought: he believes the companies wanted to announce this deal before SpaceX goes public, and expects it to bring more institutional attention and dollars into the space sector generally.

Watch Items5

  • Blue Origin New Glenn static fire test ahead of the BlueBird 7 (FM2) launch

    same day as recording, per an unverified NASA flight-chat report, roughly 15 minutes after Anpanman's comment (~9:20) Anpanman 00:33:15
  • BlueBird 7 (FM2) launch on Blue Origin New Glenn

    targeted for 'this Friday,' roughly 3 days after a successful static fire Anpanman 00:33:14
  • First batches of new composite rings (for BlueBird 8-13) completing production and shipping

    this month (April 2026) Anpanman 00:18:36
  • Amazon's independently developed direct-to-device satellite launch

    targeted for 2028 per Amazon, though Anpanman guesses it could slip 1-2 years Anpanman 00:00:28
  • Amazon-Globalstar acquisition closing, pending FCC/DOJ regulatory review

    targeted 2027 Anpanman 00:00:28

Open Questions6

  • What specific rights does Apple retain in the Amazon-Globalstar arrangement — does Apple still own roughly 85% of the network, or did it relinquish that stake for a long-term service agreement, and what recourse does Apple have if Amazon fails to deliver?

    Anpanman 00:27:48
  • Which MNOs, if any, would be willing to partner with Amazon on direct-to-device given concerns Amazon could compete with their broadband and wireless businesses?

    Anpanman 00:00:28
  • Will the Amazon-Globalstar deal clear DOJ/FCC antitrust review within Anpanman's estimated ~9-month minimum timeline?

    Anpanman 00:00:28
  • Did Amazon actually previously approach Abel Avellan about acquiring AST SpaceMobile, as an unnamed institution claimed to Anpanman?

    Anpanman 00:00:28
  • What happens to MDA Space's Aurora satellite manufacturing business now that Globalstar (and previously EchoStar) are no longer prospective customers?

    Anpanman 00:27:48
  • Will Iridium eventually lease out its L-band spectrum or get consolidated, and on what timeline?

    Anpanman 00:00:28

Raw Transcript

Show full transcript
[00:00:06] Speaker A: This is the AST SpaceMobile Podcast. It will just basically come to your phone and be seamless regardless of where you are. We don't want the user even to know that it's connected by satellite. Listen, the opportunity that we have is very, very, very large.
[00:00:28] Speaker B: Hey everyone, thanks for joining. We got some big news today and, uh, apologize in advance. I'm, I've become sick again. So, um, my head is a bit cloudy, but, uh, I figured fire up Space and talk about this deal that was long rumored and it's finally come to fruition. So, uh, Amazon just announced that they're buying Globalstar for $90 in cash and stock. It's going to be an election for shareholders and there's a limit to how much stock gets paid out. But it looks like the transaction's probably going to close in 2027. My guess is that the regulatory review is going to be pretty long, at a minimum, maybe 9 months. And so this deal's going to trade for a reasonably wide spread, I think, unless people think there's a chance that SpaceX comes back and tries to, you know, post going public, maybe tries to top this deal. But That would seem kind of like a fool's errand because you're going up against Amazon. So I don't really see that happening, but it's possible. So I think this thing's going to trade pretty wide because the regulatory review will be pretty long and that will require obviously FCC and I'm guessing the DOJ is probably going to review this from an antitrust point of view, but it should get cleared. And yeah, so pretty interesting deal. I mean, I think For all the bears out there who talk about this market being too small, now you've got SpaceX spending $23 billion on spectrum and Amazon shelling out well over $10 billion for Globalstar, which is a legacy satellite company. The key assets here obviously are the global harmonized spectrum. And if you look at the press release, Amazon is planning to, in partnership with Apple, because for some background, Globalstar is a bit of an albatross for Apple given the ambitions that Apple wanted for their satellite service. And then of course Starlink and AST surpassing what Globalstar can do now or for the medium to long term as well. And so by Amazon coming in, with capital and know-how on the Leo side, they're going to be able to put together a better service. And so for Apple, that solves their issue there. Obviously it's a bit of an odd marriage because I think for Apple, they are competitors with Amazon in various areas for consumer business. And eventually, you know, there's some talk about Amazon coming back to the phone handset market and developing an AI device as well. And so those 2 will maybe increasingly come into conflict, but at least for this particular business, they seem to have worked out something, which I think the information, maybe it was like 2 years ago and a year ago, the articles suggested that Apple kind of viewed Globalstar as something that was not sustainable because it wasn't a core focus for them. And then, you know, obviously the relationship there was not optimal. And so perhaps this can change that dynamic or maybe not. But, you know, today Amazon did announce that they are going to enter into the direct-to-device market. And as I said before, for those people who poo-pooed this market and said it was too small, now you've got SpaceX and Amazon going headfirst. Of course, you know, Apple making sure that their devices are compatible. But yeah, this market is huge and it's probably going to be bigger in terms of TAM than people think. So this is a huge vote of confidence for this market. And yeah, I think overall that's quite bullish for what will be the leaders in the market, which I think ultimately are going to be AST SpaceMobile, Starlink, and then we'll see where Amazon falls on that, just being, you a late player, but very powerful player. I think it's important to note that spectrum value has been underscored here. And for those that know, AST SpaceMobile owns Legato for 80 years. So the life of that lease is going to be longer than I'm alive. But in terms of value extraction, they're going to get a ton of economics from that. And so by having Legato covering the US, which is the most profitable market, and Canada, there's tremendous value there. If you do some of the parts analysis, I would peg Legato's value at probably, call it once it's fully deployed, let's say it's $20 billion. And as people know, AST SpaceMobile satellites are the only ones that can utilize that spectrum. Effectively on a non-interference basis, which has plagued Legato in the past. And so taking that $20 billion, that's a pretty hefty piece of AST's value today. And the rest of the businesses is option value. So you get the commercial business and then you also, of course, you get the defense business as well. So I think today just really underscores the value of spectrum and how Smart management was in closing the Legato transaction and also getting MSS spectrum rights globally. And so, yeah, that's that's just a big underscore value there. But anyway, going back to Amazon Global Star, it does look like you know Amazon's going to continue in fulfilling the or paying for the the the replenishment of the current Global Star constellation. So that that's a mild positive for MDA space. However, if you look at this press release, you look a little bit closer, it looks like Amazon's going to develop their own direct-to-device satellite, which will then kick in after that replenishment cycle. And so they're saying that they're going to try to launch sometime in 2028. And as we all know in space, that's probably going to be maybe 1 to 2 years later than they expect. If you look at the development timeline for Amazon LEO, the fixed Broadband satellites. But if they can get there in 2028, you know, that by that time, the AC Mobile service and Starlink's service, I guess their next generation satellites will start rolling out then. That's what they'll have to contend with. But the model here will be interesting because I think Amazon, you know, if you're taking a very, you know, if you take a step back and think about announcing this transaction, they probably had to, obviously they worked closely with Apple to kind of iron out how that relationship would work. And so obviously, you know, Amazon's going to continue to support Apple devices and then the current constellation, but eventually that constellation will get phased out. And then they talk about potentially working with MNOs and other partners. And so I could see a world where Amazon will offer an IoT network, which you'll have any number of customers interested in that as IoT will be a big market for everybody. But then when it comes to MNO partners, I'm not sure who they would work with. I think if it's T-Mobile, Verizon, or AT&T, those folks would be leery in working with Amazon, just given that Amazon again is you know, with their LEO services can be competitive with home broadband, whether that's fiber or 5G home. And then of course, MNOs, I think would be cognizant of the fact that Amazon might have larger ambitions to try to compete on the wireless side, terrestrially, right? But of course, you know, it's hard to do that because you would need terrestrial spectrum. And so perhaps Amazon could enter into an MVNO type relationship. But yeah, all this stuff, there's a lot to unpack here, so I'm not really sure which MNOs might work with them. But then, you know, you also have to look outside the US. And so if the US market is locked up, Amazon does have, does sell products and competes in a number of international markets. And so they could find openings elsewhere to work with MNOs. And so, I mean, it is Amazon and, you know, I'm sure you could find MNO partners that would not be or not feel threatened by Amazon and to work with them. But that's something that they'll have to figure out. That said, it does make sense for Amazon to come in and acquire the company and buy what is essentially Harmonay spectrum globally. So that's a positive, right? No one ever— well, if you have a timeframe of, it's just like home ownership, right? Like if you buy a home and you're looking to flip it in a year or two, you may not, you know, you always have to worry about whether you're buying the top or the bottom, but if you have a time horizon of 5 years or longer, it doesn't matter where you buy a home in terms of price. Eventually in good markets like that, you will make money. And so for Amazon buying Spectrum as a strategic asset makes a ton of sense. I mean, for Amazon, the optionality is that they can build satellites and try to launch a service, you know, hopefully cobble together some partners, or if they decide to not build satellites, then they could have someone else light up the spectrum, whether that's AST or somebody else, right? And so I think for Amazon, it's a smart deal because I think for acquiring spectrum rights and having a relationship with Apple is good. And so for them, the transaction Makes sense, and then for Apple, at the end of the day, like Apple, all they care about is selling more phones, right? And so they're not looking to get into the service provider business, which clearly, if they were, they would have done this deal themselves. But for them, it's the key thing is is selling as many phones as possible and offering features that are unique. And so they're hoping that Amazon can give them something unique in 2028 and beyond. I think the key thing though is as Space Mob has followed. Hiring at Amazon, I think they just started looking for direct-to-device people. And so it's going to take time for them to actually develop a working satellite in this area. And then if they're smart, they'll go to first principles and try to develop something similar to what AST has, right? As opposed to going down the route that SpaceX took, which is slap something together quickly to get service out and then hopefully change it over time. But yeah, this is an interesting deal. I think for a bear, they might be like, well, Amazon's now a competitor of yours. And so that's going to be, that could crimp your growth or reduce the size of your TAM. I would argue that this validates the TAM and just shows how large the opportunity is. It's not just mobile phones, it's IoT devices. And we're just talking about commercial. For AST, like you've got the commercial business and you also have the defense business. And so it's very, here you're seeing a huge validation. And, you know, I think the key thing is that from a competitive standpoint, now you've got SpaceX and Starlink and xAI and Tesla. So that's all like one vertical stack. And now you've got Amazon. And of course Amazon is leveraging Blue Origin. And so, and then Apple is friendly in some degree, at least, you know, they're supportive. And then you've got these other players too, these other players called, you know, OpenAI, Google, Meta. I mean, Google and Meta are already working with AST. And so what do those guys do? Right. And so I've seen this like in tech where when you have an industry that's highly attractive with great growth prospects and profitability, then you've got large players that come in and consolidation happens. When you have a leading technological player that's independent and then you've got a number of players who haven't made their moves yet, then that player that's left standing, the one-of-one company becomes that much more strategically critical, right? And so in cases you might have a situation where that company gets bought or gets strategic investment or gets strategically aligned with these other companies. I think it's probably too early for that for AST because I think, I don't think Abel's selling. And someone had, I guess an institution had mentioned to me that he was pretty sure Amazon tried to acquire AST. And I have no way to validate that or whatever, but I just don't see Abel selling. And I think the strategic value for AST in terms of value creation is is staying independent, right? Because I think the MNOs, they see encroachment from Starlink and now Amazon. They want to work with a player that's independent, right? That is not owned by a large tech company that is seeking to ultimately compete, right, with the MNOs, whether that's controlling the customer or selling other services. And so remaining independent in this market, I think, is going to be highly valuable. And so I think from a strategic standpoint, as I said before, we've already, I mean, Google has a strategic investment in AST. We know that Meta is working with AST. Now all of a sudden this chess piece, this move happened today, the strategic value of AST goes up, right? And I think for Iridium too, their spectrum is valuable. It's not paired spectrum, it's just a single Swath has spectrum in the L-band, but eventually that company, that spectrum, as, as Cathie says, like we'll find the optimal use, right? And so I think Iridium over the long run, and Matt Desch has talked about this, I think they will either lease that spectrum to another player, like a majority of it. They don't, for Iridium, they actually only need just a small part of it to operate their business, but they might lease it to someone or they might eventually get consolidated. I don't know when that would happen. And the other thing to keep in mind is when you go through these regulatory reviews with the DOJ, FCC, like they're going to look for anti-competitive behavior or, you know, how the market structure changes, which is why I don't think SpaceX would've been allowed to buy Globalstar. Whereas Amazon, because it's more nascent in its development of the LEO service, and then they don't really have anything around direct-to-device. I think it makes sense where this transaction will get allowed. But going back to that, I think for Amazon, the need to have direct-to-device, I think, is important, right? And so whether they do that independently, utilizing the spectrum, then they put up their own satellites, which makes sense, right? Like if you have satellite, development and production capacity, then eventually once you get to constellation up, you want to put that capacity towards other productive uses. And so it makes sense for them to try to put up a direct-to-device constellation. Similarly for AST, right? Like once they're done with block 1, sorry, block 2 and block 3, then they're going to put up a government shell, right? And so eventually, because they have that know-how and capacity, That eventually is going to happen. So I think for, yeah, I mean, I think the market for the people who haven't followed this market closely, the initial reaction might be negative where they'd say, oh, well, this is another competitor to AST. And so maybe their opportunity set goes down. But I would argue that let's kind of line up the strategic aspects for AST, right? Like, so they've got 45 megahertz of L-band spectrum that they own for 80 years in North America. So the US and Canada. So that's what, 20, let's just say $20 billion out of $38 billion in enterprise value. So pretty big value there. And then they're working with 50 MNOs globally. They've got Verizon and AT&T locked up in the US for some period of time, right? I mean, eventually, let's say the competitive risk is that Amazon comes to market with something that's really good. And if either of those players decides that they, you know, Amazon is worth working with, then perhaps maybe Amazon can take one of those. But at least in the near term, that's not on the table. And of course it's for AST to lose. And then, you know, you've got the military business, right? Which is, you know, the 10 different use cases around electronic warfare, jamming, sensing, you know, communications, of course. And then you've got the FirstNet business. And so there's a lot going for AST. And I think what this does for the The market narrative is that, you know, probably one of the biggest things I think for hedge funds and institutions was always going to be, you know, is this market big enough and is it economically attractive? I think the fact that you've got, you know, SpaceX that's come into the market and then you've got Amazon thinking it's big enough where they're going to go buy Globalstar. I can't see a bigger validation of how large this market is and the potential of it.
[00:18:35] Speaker A: Right.
[00:18:36] Speaker B: And so I think balancing the fact that, that of course this does add some competitive uncertainty, it also raises the value of what AST is doing as an independent player, right? Because once Globalstar, once the Globalstar transaction closes and it's now obviously part of Amazon, Like, does Google go to Globalstar or does Meta go to Globalstar and say, hey, I want to use your service? No, they don't. There's no way they're going to do that, right? Or are they going to go to Meta? Like, is OpenAI or Meta or Google or any number of other players going to go to SpaceX and say, hey, I want to use your network? No. And so if anything, this heightens the strategic value of the company and whether that's like these large tech players, I didn't even talk about Microsoft, but whether it's these large tech players versus, or it could be MNOs. I mean, what MNOs are going to go to Amazon and say, hey, I want to work with you and, but you keep the customer, you control the customer information. I'll give it all to you. And by the way, like you're going to be competing with my my fiber and 5G home business. That's not something, well, that's not the choice that AT&T and Verizon made when comparing AST to Starlink. And so I would assume that they're going to make that same decision when comparing AST to eventually what will come to market for Amazon, which again is maybe 2028, 2029. But yeah, no, it's interesting. And I think if anything, this is going to get additional people interested in this market and bring more attention. And so now it's like, okay, well now we've got Starlink and they're, you know, for those that missed it, I posted, let me just pull it up here. The Information had an article. I assume that they got a look at the confidential S-1 That will be public eventually, you know, breaking down Starlink's numbers. And so it was quite staggering. Starlink generated $11.4 billion of revenue and launch SpaceX generated $4.1 billion of revenue. However, in terms of profitability, Starlink was $7.2 billion versus $700 million for SpaceX launch. And so the profits are here. And Amazon clearly is voting with their feet saying, well, we need to go pursue some of that profit pie as well. Like fixed wireless is great, but in terms of the numbers and the growth, you know, it's all on direct-to-device. And again, it's not just mobile phones. You've got to think more broadly. It's going to be drones, robots, vehicles, anything. that you can put a device on, right? And so tractors, I mean, there's a whole host of things like in terms of connected devices, IoT already is a magnitude bigger than the mobile subscribers around the world, right? And that's just going to continue to increase. And so you've got to think outside of the box. It's not just mobile phones. It's going to be much broader than that. And so for Amazon, it makes a ton of sense because they're not just in the business of selling wireless or eventually selling data to your home. They want to have all these different devices and enable, in order to integrate that and create their own network, it just makes a ton of sense. That said, there are some regulatory things that Amazon will have to get around. I think for Their, their, um, the N53, the, the 11 gigahertz, 11 megahertz of spectrum for private networks. Um, I think, you know, they can use that terrestrially and it's, it's part of their spectrum allocation. I mean, it's either use it for MSS or use it for terrestrial use. Um, there are power limitations to that. And so, um, you know, whether maybe there is a case where Amazon could sell routers to homes and then, you know, they could utilize this Amazon-only spectrum and provide better service in your home. Like that's one potential synergy there. But yeah, it's, I don't know, there's a lot to unpack here. And so I've got to think about it a bit more, but I think the key takeaway is that, you know, this is a deal that makes sense for Amazon and for them not to be involved in this market, that doesn't make much sense. And so it was something that was almost too good for them to pass up. And I think for AST, this highlights the strategic value of the company, its spectrum assets, its 50 MNO partners around the world, and of course military and defense use cases. And then of course FirstNet, and as the only independent player They left, um, you know, again, does that highlight, that heightens the value to a Meta or Google, OpenAI, Microsoft, you know, any number of companies, right? Um, and this also validates the, the direct-to-device market, which is bigger than cell phones. It's going to be, um, Internet of Things as well. Um, but yeah, those are some of my initial thoughts. I'm going to look at comments here. Let me just look here. Some people may have asked some questions, but let me just look here. And by the way, like some of these carriers, these MNOs, they might decide to not work exclusively, exclusively. Like they might actually engage with one or more providers to provide different pieces. Although I think network integration, if you do that, is going to be a nightmare, but that is always a possibility as well. Um, someone asked, did I hear Catsy in the background? Uh, yes, you did. Actually, we have a cat, and so it was meowing. That wasn't Catsy, it's actually our cat here. Um, let's see. Satellite connectivity rewards capital and speed. SpaceX proved it. Amazon entering tightens the squeeze on smaller players like ASTS. Uh, that's true. It does add competitive juice to, um, the landscape. And so AST's got to move quickly, which is why they raised $4 billion. And they're working with key strategic players, including AT&T, Verizon, Saudi Telecom, Vodafone, Google, Meta, I mean, you name it, right? So yes, that's true. Let's see. Comes back to executing, which means more satellites faster in orbit, scaling revenue. know, helpful to bring more coverage to the industry. Yeah, I mean, for those that, um, I, I guess actually I, I'll provide a little bit of an update. So, um, as I've mentioned in Spaces before, AST, some of the delays around Block 2 is around the stacking issue. And so these new composite rings, there's a lot of investment upfront that goes into them and it's hard to do. Um, but then once you do it, the weight savings and structural rigidity, um, is worth it, right? And so AST did encounter Some issues with their rings initially, but they solved that back in February, and the first batch is going to be done and shipped this month. And there was some speculation on Twitter about this Antonov flying into Midland yesterday, and I can confirm that, and Midland Spaceport confirmed this, that that flight was for ASD Space Mobile. We do know that they use a a manufacturer of composites in India. And so that's where the plane came from. And that flight actually dropped off the next generation or this improved ring design for Bluebird 14, 15, 16, 17, 18, 19, 20. I think we're speculating anywhere between 6 to 8 rings were dropped off yesterday. And so once the first 2 batches, which is 8, 9, 10, and 11, 12, 13, are done and out the door. Um, the, the other rings have been dropped off and will be integrated with their— the set of microns, uh, and other pieces of, of payload, um, which then of course will be, you know, tested and delivered. So that will be, uh, the rings that were delivered yesterday will be batch— will be batch, um, I guess 3 and 4. 3 and 4. And maybe 5. We're not really sure how many rings were delivered, but there was, there was more than we had expected. I'll just put it at that. But let me see here. But yeah, that's, that's a quick update there. Oh, there's a few more questions.
[00:27:40] Speaker A: All right.
[00:27:48] Speaker B: I don't know if people have questions. Happy to talk here. Let's see. With your M&A experience, have you seen companies like AST acquired on future revenue rather than current valuation? Yes, that's typical for M&A. You don't buy a company for its current prospects. You buy it for the future. Is AST even acquirable at the current stage due to their high valuation with the current financials? Yeah, it is acquirable, but I don't, I don't think the company is selling, right? Like Abel is the controlling shareholder and he sees value in seeing this further in terms of development. And so I don't think he's an early seller. I guess for this question of whether companies at this stage, in the early stage but high opportunity, would they be acquired? I mean, just look at biotech, right? Biotech, you've got companies that have gone through phase 2 or phase 3 trials, not even revenue and they get acquired for billions of dollars just given on the potential. And you also see that in tech as well. Let's see. What are your thoughts on the timing of this while our satellite is literally sitting on top of their rocket on launchpad? I think the timing is coincidence. Blue Origin is separate from Amazon, although they are of course related. I don't, think this, the timing of this deal was aligned with, with, uh, our launch. Um, but if it was, then that, that's interesting in and of itself. Uh, let's see. If Amazon entered this market in 2028 without adding any M&Os, what could they realistically do with what they bought today? Um, well, I mean, they can sell, you know, if someone from, if someone buys an Apple iPhone or device and they're offered Amazon service, satellite service, and they could pay some monthly subscription for that. Or Amazon, I guess like Amazon maybe kind of taking it forward, Amazon could offer it as a service via if you're a Prime customer. But you have to remember like that network is only available outside of an MNO's terrestrial coverage, right? And so I guess Amazon could provide some type of roaming network, so that's possible. But then I don't know if AT&T or Verizon would be okay with enabling that, although I guess Apple would be selling it, which is kind of an odd thing, right? Like Apple, maybe it's branded by Apple, but they're just reselling Amazon's service. Because I don't think Apple would be comfortable selling You know, they're a customer to Amazon. But yeah, this is like the complexity of it all, right? Because I think here you've got imperfect partners in bed. You've got Amazon and Apple. Like, how do they, if any issues come up in the future, how do they resolve them? Which inevitably there will be, just given that they are competitors. So does that, you know, what are Apple's rights? I gotta look at the deal documents when they come out eventually. But what are Apple's rights in all this, right? Like they, Do they still own 85% of the network, or did they relinquish some of that in exchange for some long-term service agreement? And if so, what rights does Apple have if Amazon doesn't deliver? And by the way, I think I mentioned this before, but I think for— let me just see where it's trading. I think this is a pretty net negative for MDA Space. I mean, MDA Space is trading at I guess it's last traded at $32.98. I think for, I mean, we'll see what Globalstar says, but if Amazon is going to develop the next generation satellite, then Globalstar, the Aurora satellite platform just lost one of its biggest customers, right? Which is Globalstar. And they originally were trying to sell to EchoStar. They lost that customer. So I don't know who's buying, who will buy the Aurora satellite. Um, I might even look at shorting some MBA today, but anyway, um, let's see. Why has AST been so silent on news lately? Um, I think once we have a successful static fire of Blue Origin New Glenn 3, then I think you'll see AST send out, um, an email and post about when the launch is going to be. But I think, um, smartly, it would be, it would be foolish to, you know, send, say we're launching on April 17th. And we've seen how many days this thing has been pushed back due to some delays on the Blue Origin side, but it would be silly to send out invites and get people all jazzed up about a launch date. And then the static fire, maybe it's unsuccessful or they've got to do it again some other time. You just wouldn't waste people's time and efforts until you're absolutely sure that The static fire went off without a hitch. And by the way, like they, the, the, the FM2 Bluebird 7 payload is on top of the rocket. It's not a dummy payload. And so the reason why they're doing that is they're looking to have a quick turnaround time. Obviously they're doing static fire today and then they're going to launch the sucker in 3 days. And so you wait, you wait for the static fire to be successful before announcing that you're going to—
[00:33:14] Speaker A: Yeah.
[00:33:15] Speaker B: Have a launch date. Let's see, um, do you think this leads to an arms race to acquire AST among the remaining Mag 7 in the coming quarters? Um, I think it certainly raises strategic conversations. And you know, if Abel's initial conversations with players to work in partnership, I'm sure, you know, there might be phones ringing. Um, the bankers might be getting calls in the next few, few quarter weeks, quarters about working together either you know, strategic investment or potential acquisition. But, um, again, I, I don't think Bell's a seller. Uh, let's see. AST going to be crushed? Um, no, it's not. And if anything, as I said before, this validates the market, uh, increases strategic importance of AST. Um, because I, I think it's important, like, MNOs, when they see this deal get announced, they're not, they're not like excited about it. They're not you know, getting off their seat saying this is wonderful. They're probably very worried, right? Because now Amazon is coming into the market and, you know, Apple eventually is going to have a better service. And so that's going to give, you know, them pause and that increases the importance of AST being successful, right? And working with them. So Um, and again, I did mention the value of the spectrum that AST holds, which is Legato. Um, if there was any doubts about it previously, um, this just underscores that value, right? And we've seen interestingly Viasat who, um, you know, Legato owns, owns a spectrum with, or leases a spectrum from Viasat and Viasat has been doing everything legally possible to try to rescind the deal. And they've been slapped down by the courts. They clearly know that Legato has tremendous value and they've been trying to unwind that deal, which obviously they can't. Let's see. Is Amazon now a space play? It is to a degree. Amazon of course has LEO and then they're going to try to enter into this market as well. But when you buy Amazon, it's a massive conglomerate, right? You've got obviously E-commerce side, you've got production and video content, then you've got AWS. And so space is a small part of it, but it will become an increasing part of it. And so if that's something that you're interested in owning a conglomerate, then Amazon is partially a space play. Let's see, 2030 is when Amazon will have something. If you look at the timelines of Amazon executing around Leo, yeah, I wouldn't be surprised if it takes them additional years. I mean, doing this stuff obviously is not easy, but they've got smart engineers. Although based off of Space Mob due diligence and some of the articles you can read out there, it looks like they're having issues with their current Leo satellites and perhaps this current generation will need to be retired and a new generation put up. But of course they need to put up satellites, right? Because they've got to meet deployment deadlines set by the FCC. Otherwise, they lose their license for the constellation. And so they've got to balance that all out. Let's see. Anyway, those are the comments I had, but yeah, or those are the comments that I'm responding to. But yeah, thanks for joining. I think, yeah, this is an interesting transaction. I think it's going to bring more interest and attention to the sector, especially if anything, I think the companies wanted to announce this deal before SpaceX goes public. And so yeah, space as a sector is growing up, right? And the amount, the potential and the amount of institutional dollars that are going to be coming to the sector, I think is going to be great. And this deal just highlights the value of the direct advice market and the value of spectrum, which ASD has both. So anyway, thanks for joining. And, you know, as this transaction moves along and I do more research, I'll probably do another follow-up space. But in the meantime, hope everyone's doing well. Looking forward to— oh, I think the static fire for Blue Origin. I don't know how true this is, but someone in the NASA flight chat said that it's going to happen at 9:20. And so yeah, I did post a link. About it. So you can watch on YouTube. We're going to see Blue Origin New Glenn fire. I guess it's in 15 minutes. So exciting times. And then I don't think I'll be able to make the launch this Friday. I was looking, I was trying to make it. However, I got sick and so I'm taking some antibiotics, so I don't want to get other people sick, so I'll have to watch from home. But yeah, looking forward to it anyway. Thanks for joining and we'll talk again soon. Take care, everyone.
[00:38:10] Speaker A: Thanks for listening to the AST SpaceMobile Podcast. If you enjoyed this episode and you'd like to help support the podcast, please share it with others, post about it on social media, or leave a rating and review. To catch all the latest news about AST SpaceMobile, make sure to subscribe. Thanks again, and I'll see you next time. We're doing something very, very big, and I think with this technology, we can really affect a billion lives. AST SpaceMobile is the only company that has proven technology to deliver cellular mobile connectivity directly from space to the everyday smartphone. People will just basically turn on their phone and be seamless. Regardless of where you are, we don't want the user even to know that it's connected by satellite. Our role is to bring this into reality. Always important to treat the animals. Listen. Mmm, waffles.

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