Episode
Know What You Own: Surviving the Momentum Crash and What Comes Next for $ASTS
In this solo weekly recap, Kook processes AST SpaceMobile's brutal momentum-driven stock crash to $56 (a 58% drawdown), triggered by a surprise $1 billion convertible bond offering. He explains why he ultimately concluded the raise was the right move rather than a red flag.
He walks through fundamental progress: the first composite BlueBird (BlueBird 10) successfully unfurling, batch two satellites shipping on schedule, and spectral efficiency numbers coming in roughly 3x above his prior model.
The catalysts include the J-LEO project now referenced in an official Reg FD filing, mounting circumstantial evidence of an imminent T-Mobile deal, FCC TAM-expansion proposals, and a possible AST investment in a launch company.
He closes on investment psychology: why 'knowing what you own' is the only real defense against momentum-factor volatility, and why the underlying thesis hasn't changed despite the drawdown pain.
Key Takeaways
- AST SpaceMobile stock dropped to as low as $56 last week (a 58% drawdown from highs) amid a broader momentum-factor crash across high-multiple 'go-go' stocks (a list shared by Shae Belor showed similar names down 40-75%), which Kook attributes to South Korean margin calls cascading into de-risking across the AI/momentum complex rather than anything company-specific.
- The stock drop coincided with a surprise ~$1 billion convertible bond offering that Kook initially reacted to with anger (he describes himself as 'ripshit'), but after reflection he concluded raising the extra capital was the right decision because it funds satellites, launches, hiring, and product roadmap aggression (including J-LEO and Golden Dome ambitions) and avoids a 'capital markets death spiral.'
- BlueBird 10 became the first composite-construction BlueBird satellite to successfully unfurl its phased-array antenna, closing out one of the last major technical open questions in Kook's view; batch two (BlueBirds 11-13) is officially in motion after the company hit a shipping deadline for the first time.
- New spectral efficiency data showed satellites performing at roughly 3 times the data-per-hertz Kook had been modeling, which he says dramatically lowers the dollar-per-bit economics of the network, though he cautions this reflects peak rates and many pricing/oversell variables remain uncertain.
- AST's Reg FD disclosure confirmed the company is in advanced discussions with Rakuten regarding preliminary selection of 'RAST' (Rakuten-AST) for the J-LEO project, expected to be roughly $1 billion — validating prior community speculation that some had dismissed as 'cult' theorizing.
- The company's prior target of 45 satellites deployed by year-end 2026 has been pushed to early 2027, which Kook accepts as reasonable given how difficult satellite manufacturing ramps are, and which he expects to be blamed partly on launch-provider delays.
- Kook and others (via 'mosaic investing' — piecing together public but non-obvious information, as distinct from insider trading) believe a T-Mobile partnership announcement is imminent, citing the expiring one-year Starlink exclusivity window, Chris Sambar's move to T-Mobile, AST testing on T-Mobile's spectrum, and a stated T-Mobile joint venture with AT&T and Verizon.
- The FCC is proposing to expand the direct-to-device addressable market beyond smartphones to include Wi-Fi, Bluetooth, unlicensed devices, agricultural sensors, tractors, utility infrastructure, pipelines, rail networks, remote industrial equipment, and public safety devices — a potentially major TAM expansion Kook says is hard to quantify but favors low-cost, low-friction providers like AST.
- Kook frames his core investment philosophy as 'know what you own' — deeply understanding a thesis so that short-term volatility (which he calls 'co-owner risk,' i.e. getting hurt by other investors' forced selling) doesn't knock you out of a position you'd otherwise be right about.
- A UBS report doing a 47-page deep dive on satellites' impact on the European telecom sector reportedly did not mention AST SpaceMobile at all, which Kook cites as evidence the stock remains under-discovered despite the scale of the opportunity he believes it represents.
Detailed Discussion8 topics
Satellite Fundamentals: BlueBird Unfurling and Batch Two
4
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BlueBird 10 was successfully deployed/unfurled — described as one of the final major technical milestones being watched for, and notably the first composite-built BlueBird to successfully unfurl (FM1/BlueBird 6 unfurled earlier but was not made of composite material).
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Kook notes the company can be assumed to have brought FM1 into formal operation, though this isn't confirmed; he frames the recent milestones as knocking down the last of the open technical questions.
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Batch 2 is officially in motion, and notably the company hit a shipping/production deadline for the first time — which Kook takes as a sign the 'machine that makes the machine' (manufacturing ramp) is finally working, and that the 'production hell' phase (comparable to what Tesla went through) is essentially over.
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Citing a timeline compiled by community member Kevin Chen: BlueWalker 3 to Block 1 (BlueBird 1-5) took 2 years; FM-1 (BlueBird 6) followed 14 months later; BlueBird 7 followed 3 months after that; the first batch of 3 composite satellites followed 5 months after FM2 (BlueBird 7); and batch 2 followed just 2 months after that — illustrating an accelerating satellite production cadence.
Spectral Efficiency Breakthrough
2
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Updated spectral efficiency numbers show the satellites performing at roughly 3 times the data-per-hertz (data transmitted per unit of spectrum) that Kook had been modeling — a peak-rate figure, but one he says dramatically lowers dollar-per-bit economics versus his prior model, all else equal.
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Kook cautions there remain many uncertain variables in his cost model — how much can be charged per unit of data, the ability to oversell capacity (since he doesn't believe service will actually be priced strictly per unit of data) — and that launch costs are the one variable not yet moving favorably, though he expects them to normalize over time to previously expected levels.
Convertible Bond Offering and Capital Strategy
12
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The company surprised the market with a $1 billion convertible bond offering last week, which Kook calls a 'drive-by convertible bond offering,' noting it came despite prior conference-call guidance suggesting no further converts were planned.
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Kook's stock holdings dropped to $56 amid the announcement and broader market weakness; he describes his emotional reaction as anger, which he initially aimed outward before realizing it was directed at himself, ultimately concluding the raise makes his investment safer rather than riskier.
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Kook argues the extra capital funds things he wants the company to pursue aggressively: satellites, capacity for J-LEO and Golden Dome-type programs, an aggressive product roadmap, spreading launch-industry risk across providers, and hiring top talent — and avoids a scenario of debating 'how many quarters of cash are left,' which he calls a bad position versus modest dilution.
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Kook expects the company to put down roughly $500 million on Falcon 9 launches, which will deplete cash but represent real assets for the company.
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Kook explains convertible bond pricing depends partly on volatility and credit spread; he notes SpaceX's high-yield credit spread (the reference credit used to price such deals) has been blowing out, and that convertible-bond new issuance is spiking broadly because 'Mag 7' companies are raising capital for AI buildout — creating a large supply of competing new issuance.
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Kook argues the company likely timed the raise deliberately because capital markets access effectively shuts down in August, faces volatility in September, and remains uncertain in October — making it sensible to raise now rather than risk being unable to issue later while cash burn continues.
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Kook credits CEO Abel Avellan and President Scott Wisniewski for making the capital-raise decision despite knowing it would draw criticism, and credits the company's founder-controlled share structure (supervoting shares) with allowing management to make long-horizon decisions for perpetual shareholders rather than being dictated to by shorter-horizon hedge fund holders.
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The stock has now traded around $130/share on three separate occasions, which Kook cites as evidence that level isn't an anomaly and that 'everything now is better than what it had been before.'
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The broader momentum-factor sell-off (which Kook likens to a 'Lehman Brothers type crash' across similar high-beta names) was driven by South Korean margin calls cascading into de-risking of the AI complex — a form of 'co-owner risk' where other investors' forced liquidations hit unrelated holders' prices, rather than anything specific to AST's fundamentals.
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A list shared by Shae Belor ('the future is on sale right now') showed high-growth momentum stocks (e.g., Oklo, Enovix) down between 40% and 75%, with ASTS down 58%, placing it within that broader momentum-stock correction rather than as an outlier.
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Kook believes convertible-bond hedgers moved to put on hedges very quickly this time (versus getting 'nuked' on the prior convert when the stock traded up more than expected), which he thinks contributed to a sharp stock pop on Friday.
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Community chart analyses from 'Tough for Us, Tough for R' and 'Reformed Trader' reportedly show that after previous AST convert issuances, once the stock had already been dragging, it tended to shoot up quickly afterward — cited by Kook as an encouraging historical pattern.
J-LEO / Rakuten Reg FD Disclosure and Launch Provider Speculation
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AST's Reg FD disclosure states (quoted): the company is 'currently in advanced discussions with Rakuten, a shareholder of the company... regarding the preliminary selection of RAST, Rakuten AST, [as] a recipient for the JALEO project expected to be roughly $1 billion' — which Kook says moves J-LEO speculation from unconfirmed community theorizing into an official company filing.
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The company's guidance shifted the target for 45-satellite deployment to early 2027, which Kook takes in stride as a 'kitchen sink' adjustment.
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The company plans to buy more launches, which Kook assumes are largely Falcon 9 slots, and there is a 'strong insinuation' the company will make an investment in a launch company.
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Kook initially speculated the launch-company investment could be participation in a Blue Origin fundraise, but talked himself out of that since AST is already heavily invested in Blue Origin as a launch partner; he now speculates it could instead involve Relativity Space, reasoning that Relativity's backer Eric Schmidt (also linked to Google, a major AST shareholder) could create an effective 'Google-owns-its-own-SpaceX' dynamic in combination with AST — explicitly flagged as speculation with many other possible outcomes.
Sovereignty Theme and Golden Dome
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Kook frames a broader global 'sovereignty' theme (countries wanting to reduce reliance on SpaceX) as core to his AST thesis, citing Anpanman's note that AST/SatCo is seen as the frontrunner for European satellite spectrum, and noting similar dynamics playing out with the EU, Japan, and South Korea seeking their own constellation access.
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As a personal, unrelated small trade illustrating the same sovereignty theme, Kook disclosed buying a small position in IQMX, a recently SPAC'd quantum computing company he believes is a European leader, on the logic that Europe won't want to rely on the US (IBM) for quantum ambitions — explicitly described as a very small position and not a claim of quantum expertise.
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Kook argues constellations are fundamentally global economies-of-scale businesses better run as multi-client platforms than built independently by individual sovereign nations, positioning AST as structured to serve that role — and speculates the company's rapid capacity additions are partly being built for specific government programs (like Golden Dome) rather than purely commercial demand.
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Citing community analyst 'Another Smith' tracking FCC filings, Kook notes AST has responded to the FCC regarding 900 MHz matters with largely redacted content that appears related to radio-location capabilities for the Space Development Agency (SDA) and non-communication use cases — which he ties to the Golden Dome narrative.
T-Mobile Speculation and Mosaic Investing
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Kook describes 'mosaic investing' as legally piecing together small, individually non-material but publicly available data points (as distinct from trading on insider information) to anticipate events before they're announced — citing past examples where the community correctly pieced together the Verizon deal and, in his view, now T-Mobile, ahead of official announcement.
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Kook and Anpanman believe a T-Mobile partnership announcement is increasingly likely, citing: T-Mobile's one-year Starlink exclusivity deal expiring this week; signs the two companies are 'getting divorced'; Chris Sambar (AST's former champion at AT&T) joining T-Mobile; AST testing on T-Mobile's spectrum; and a stated T-Mobile joint venture with AT&T and Verizon — while acknowledging they could be wrong.
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Citing an interview shared by 'Another Smith' titled 'Why MNOs Care So Much,' Kook explains carriers view the opportunity not just as fixing zero-bar dead zones but boosting one-bar coverage areas into usable data connectivity, which drives customer satisfaction and increased ARPU.
TAM Expansion: FCC IoT Proposal, Data Centers, and Landlines
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The FCC is proposing to expand direct-to-device satellite connectivity beyond smartphones to include Wi-Fi, Bluetooth, unlicensed devices, agricultural sensors, tractors, utility infrastructure, pipelines, rail networks, remote industrial equipment, and public safety devices — cataloged in a write-up by Jonathan Cooper — which Kook believes materially expands AST's addressable market, though he says he can't size how big it ultimately is.
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Kook argues skeptics undercount the TAM by looking at static coverage maps rather than how often people move in and out of connectivity, and by not accounting for a shift toward ubiquitous connected devices needing backup links, plus resistance to building more physical towers.
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Noting rising political pushback on data centers over power and water usage (citing AOC cheering data-center bans), Kook speculates that if the cost of terrestrial data centers rises due to such opposition, the relative competitiveness of space-based data centers could increase — floated as a distinct, speculative future TAM vector for AST, not a near-term plan.
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Kook revisits the landline-removal theme: MNOs want to eliminate expensive copper landline networks but are required to maintain 911 service; he cites an AT&T document (posted on his pinned tweet) describing a solution pairing AST with cell-tower backup to guarantee 911 service even if a base station loses power, which he says could save carriers billions of dollars.
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California gubernatorial candidate Steve Hilton has raised the forced removal of landlines from Californians as a political issue affecting seniors and rural residents, which Kook flags as a dynamic where AST's technology could be a proposed solution — worth monitoring.
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Anpanman flagged a 47-page UBS report deep-diving on satellites' impact on the European telecom sector that reportedly does not mention AST SpaceMobile at all, which Kook cites as evidence the company/stock remains genuinely under-discovered.
Investment Psychology: Know What You Own and Surviving the Drawdown
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Kook's core investment framework, developed over 20 years, is to understand a position at an extremely deep level ('know what you own') so as to inoculate himself against volatility; he notes this is easier managing his own capital (a family-office-style structure where he answers only to himself) than for a hedge fund analyst accountable to a portfolio manager.
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Kook describes the recent crash as driven by 'co-owner risk' — being hurt by other investors' forced deleveraging (South Korean margin calls cascading into AI-complex de-risking) rather than anything wrong with the underlying thesis — and stresses the importance of surviving such episodes without being liquidated or having options expire worthless.
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Kook says the market has now fully reset expectations for 45 satellites by year-end 2026 (that target having slipped to early 2027), and argues that while frustrating, AST's own ramp difficulties will be dwarfed by even greater ramp difficulties faced by later competitors trying to catch up.
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Drawing a historical analogy to early SaaS stocks (e.g., ServiceNow, Cadence, KLA) that repeatedly saw 30-40% drawdowns that knocked out most holders despite strong long-term compounding, Kook argues the same dynamic explains why holding AST through violent drawdowns is difficult but potentially very rewarding.
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Kook estimates (explicitly spitballing) that he has been about 5 years early on AST SpaceMobile, contrasting with past experiences of being merely a year or two early on other investments — acknowledging this is a much longer early period than typical and not necessarily ideal.
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Kook closes expressing excitement about the next three weeks, expecting a batch-two satellite launch and potential news catalysts around J-LEO, T-Mobile, or other developments, framing the recent capital raise as having reloaded the company's financial capacity right as multiple catalysts converge.
Watch Items5
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Batch two (BlueBirds 11-13) launch
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T-Mobile Starlink exclusivity window expiring, potentially clearing the way for a T-Mobile/AST announcement
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45-satellite constellation deployment milestone
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Formalization of the Rakuten/AST J-LEO joint venture ('RAST')
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Possible AST investment in a launch company (speculated as Relativity Space or similar)
Open Questions4
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Which launch company (if any) AST is planning to invest in, given Blue Origin seems ruled out by Kook's own reasoning and Relativity Space is only a guess
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When (or whether) a T-Mobile partnership will be officially announced, versus remaining inferred from circumstantial 'mosaic' evidence
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How large the TAM expansion from the FCC's proposed IoT/agricultural/utility/unlicensed-device rules will actually be in practice
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Whether rising political opposition to terrestrial data centers (power/water concerns) will meaningfully translate into demand for space-based data centers as a real business vector for AST
Raw Transcript
Show full transcript
[00:00:07] Speaker A: This is the AST SpaceMobile Podcast. [00:00:10] Speaker B: It will just basically come to your phone and be seamless regardless of where you are. We don't want the user even to know that it's connected by satellite. Listen, the opportunity that we have is very, very, very large. [00:00:27] Speaker C: Okay, good evening everyone. Sorry for the ad hoc timing. It's starting to hit me how tired I am. I had a 6 AM flight, but then of course my son ran into our room at 2:30 in the morning and threw up across the bedroom. Um, and so time zone adjusted, I've basically pulled an all-nighter, so I'm starting to fade. But that marked the bottom of my day. From there it was great, everything went fine. Got home, watched the World Cup, went Went for a surf, caught some monsters, and now doing a Spaces. So what can you say? So last week was a roller coaster, to put it lightly. You definitely had one of those crash outs of pure exasperation. The stock was pretty weak and then boom, they hit us with a convertible bond, which we'll talk to in a second. But first, with the fundamentals, They started to unfurl the batch one satellites, and so Bluebird Ten was successfully deployed. And this is really one of the final technical milestones that we're watching for. FM One was successfully unfurled, but then you could say, well, you know that was not made out of composite. This is the first composite Bluebird that was successfully unfurled. We need to now see these things get. brought into operation formally. We can assume that FM1 has been brought into operation, although we don't know that. But we're really knocking down some of the final technical questions that we might have had. And then last week, what we talked about, maybe it was this week, we were getting the updated spectral efficiency numbers where the satellites were doing roughly 3 times the spectral efficiency Which means just how much data per hertz, or, you know, really data per unit of spectrum that they're able to transmit at. And this is, of course, peak rates, but this is dramatically higher than I was modeling. And so all else equal, these satellites are more efficient in terms of data transmission, which means all else equal, dollar per bit is starting to go down dramatically compared to at least where I was modeling. There's a lot of variables in this model. One is how much you can charge in terms of dollar per bit, the ability to oversell that capacity, because I don't think it's actually going to be sold on a per unit of data basis. It's just how I simplified it. And so the reality is there's a lot of variables and all of them are moving around, but with the exception of launch costs, the variables are going the right way. Launch costs over time, Is likely to normalize at the levels we had all expected. It's just a question of how long. So batch 2 is officially in motion. The company was able to really, for the first time, meet a deadline. And, you know, not to be taken lightly, it shows that the shakedown of the machine that makes the machine is going really well. And this is the operational inflection. This was the production hell that the company went through, similar to what Tesla went through, similar to really what every company that makes complex things goes through. And we are now basically done with that. And so Kevin Chen does a really nice job outlining the pace. And so from BlueWalker 3 to Block 1, it was 2 years. What did 2 years wait that was in hindsight. It's like, was I really waiting 2 years for that? It's incredible how life can just pass you by. And then for FM-1, that was 14 months later. Again, astonishing. Could have had a baby between these satellites. I should have had a baby between these. That's how I should have marked time is just have lots and lots of children between satellite shipments. And then Bluebird 7, rest in peace, 3 months later. And then we were able to have batch 1, so a series of 3 composite satellites just 5 months after FM2, and then 2 months after that, batch 2. So these guys are starting to really pump and that's exciting. The Bluebird pregnancy ward is at full capacity, which is great. Lots of pacifiers for these. World satellites are being passed. But like most people know, and I remember for me, I was so excited. Speaking of babies, my daughter was sleeping through the night and then all of a sudden these guys just started laughing hysterically and were like, yeah, kook, wait until the baby teeth come. And I was like, what are you guys talking about? And they kind of laughed at me. And then I found out, I'm like, oh my God. You know, once your baby starts teething, it's like The 9th circle of hell for parents. Well, our little company started teething as well, and the form of teething was drive-by convertible bond offering. Bam, punked again. Don't be fooled by conference call guidance that says we will not issue any more convertible bonds. That's for suckers because boom, billion-dollar bond and, you know, hit like a ton of bricks. But like most things, it's one of those things where, did I anticipate this? No. Was I thinking about raising capital and how they probably should? Yeah. But I really thought that they at this point were done with it. I was wrong. And it's okay to be wrong because ultimately when you do an analysis of what the news item was that you were wrong on, you have to ask yourself, was I wrong on something that catastrophically impacts my thesis or was I wrong on something that accelerates my thesis or makes my investment safer. And so from my perspective, raising the extra billion dollars makes my investment safer. Now, was I ripshit that my stock went to $56? Yes, that would be an accurate description of my mental state. Was I a basket case with a queue of people I was going to call and complain to? Anpanman having been the first, but Tanner was right behind. Tanner's a little like calmer, so I was going to like Blow up at Anpanman first, and then I was going to do my pillow talk with, with Tanner. That's kind of my general order of rank. But then Anpanman and I decided to broadcast it because that's how vain we are. And so I got some DMs after that. People were like, whoa, Kook, you're pretty unhinged. And some people even said, prior to that, my wife thought you and Anpanman were the same person, but then hearing you talk together, there was a very clear bifurcation of these personalities, Anpanman being the consummate diplomat and myself being the feral animal. But you know, you got to have your persona and I'm true to self. So as I kind of reflected on the convert, I think I, where I kind of left it in that, you know, live broadcast was I had all these feelings. These feelings could be described as hatred in my heart. But as I came to terms with these feelings and as I talked out loud, Um, like a therapist would suggest, I realized my anger was directed at myself, not actually at the company or the management team that made such direction because having an extra billion dollars is a good idea. These guys are spending money fast. What are they spending money on? Satellites. What do I want? Satellites. What do I want? Capacity. I want them to be able to do things like JLEO. I want them to be able to do things like Golden Dome. I want them to be extremely aggressive on product roadmap. I want them to spray the launch industry and make sure that that's not the problem we have. I want them to be able to hire the best people in the world. I do not want to have the company go into a capital market death spiral. That I do not want. And so raising the billion dollars was a good idea. And what's interesting is 2 people— I have a lot of friends, um, 2 people brought up to me really unsolicited, like, hey, Kook, Have you been watching SpaceX high yield? Well, no, I hadn't because I don't do that anymore. That was the talk of the town. That was the first thing on their mind. And let me tell you, as a guy who knows a lot about convertible bonds, there are some inputs to how you price a convertible bond. One is volatility. The other is credit spread. Credit spread blowing out of what is the reference high yield credit against which logically everything is going to be priced. That ain't good. And new issuance is spiking in the convertible bond market because the Mag 7 is having their own panic on how they're going to build out AI stuff. There's a ton of supply coming. And so the company had to make a choice. Like, we don't know where the capital markets are going to be. I personally believe the market's going to rip, and I'm not a doomer in the market. I'm not a doomer in terms of the ability to issue capital, but For sure, you are not going to have the ability to issue capital in August because August basically shuts down. September is full of horrors. And then you're really just usually, and then you're in October, which is like modest horrors and like, you know, trick or treat. So it's like quite a few months and, you know, these guys are going to be spending a lot of money. I think they're going to be putting down $500 million on Falcon 9 launches. And so we want those things. Those are assets of the company, but those are also going to deplete cash. I don't want the debate to be how many quarters of cash this company has left. That's a stupid thing to do when your alternative is effectively modest dilution. Now, did my brains get blown out on the stock price? [00:10:07] Speaker B: Yes, they did. [00:10:08] Speaker C: You can see the title of this week's weekly, like, oh my God, it was— they killed Cook, you bastards. It's kind of how I felt, um, but I got over it. Now I'm actually Really excited about what they did. It was the right thing. I can only imagine Scott is just really wasn't looking forward to that moment, having everyone just trash can him, saying he's a liar, all these things. Like he knew what people were going to say and he did it anyway. And you know, really Abel did it anyway. And I think he did the right thing. And this is why I also like these guys having control shares so they can do the right thing. So they don't listen to hedge funds who can be their shareholders. They're just smart people, but they have very different time horizons. than a bell. And you have to run a company kind of on the concept of the ancient British story of Everyman, capital E. I always believe you have to run a company for the benefit of capital E Everyman. You cannot run a company for the benefit of anti-man. It must be Everyman. And that Everyman has perpetual time horizon. So you must be making the right decision for that perpetual holder, not for the person who's going to trade in and out. And capitalizing the company effectively is the right decision, even if you take some short-term pain. But the market got trashed anyway. And so at least we have a billion dollars for the trashing. And this factor reversal, basically the momentum factor, is this, you know, really a way to sober you up real fast. This thing just had like a Lehman Brothers type crash, which you can see in all these other stocks. Now, when this flips and the algos start going the other way, you know, giddy up. And now that we've at least seen $130 per share 3 times, so this isn't sort of an anomaly. Look, the stock wants to go there. We've had price discovery in these areas and everything now is better than what it had been before. And that's what I try to really stay focused on is What is my thesis? You know, when I go back to the environment that Anpan and I were operating in with Katzi and Steve Larison before, you know, we had all these new friends who we cherish deeply, we really just had to think in this little cave that we created for ourselves called the NATO Alliance. We didn't have the benefit of Tanner, Kevin, another Smith, iPilot, Leo Edge, like all the, you know, the list goes on, Socrates, like all these hardcore people. who are way better at diligence. You know, I'm thinking like Justin, way better than we ever were and who now carry the water. It was just us in our little cave banging rocks together, trying to make a spark. And so going back to that, what do we have? Scott threw us a bone and so he knows we're going to look for meaning. You know, everything is like a revelation for us. And so what did he drop in there? In the Reg FD disclosure, quote, company is currently in advanced discussions with Rakuten, a shareholder of the company, e-commerce, blah, blah, blah, regarding the preliminary selection of RAST, Rakuten AST, a recipient for the JALEO project expected to be roughly $1 billion. So now this exits the kind of cult expectation. Loop that everyone was accusing us of, you know, making stuff up. It's now in our Reg FD filing. So we were right about JLEO, and they gave us that clue to help us hang on, is, is my view. And then they shifted the guidance a little bit, which is okay, and we'll get to that in a second. But they said that the new target for 45 satellites is early 2027. Okay, fine, kitchen sink, that's great. And then they're going to buy some more launches. We can only assume that a lot of that is Falcon 9s. And then there's a strong insinuation that they're going to make an investment in a launch company. And we kind of ran wild with speculation there. At first, I concluded that they were going to participate in the Blue Origin fundraise, but they're already really long Blue Origin, so I could kind of talk myself off that ledge. I could talk myself on the Relativity ledge because Relativity is Eric Schmidt. Eric Schmidt is Google. Google is one of our largest shareholders. Google, therefore, by sort of having the Blue Origin relationship, kind of has their own SpaceX, actually, when you start to think about Relativity plus ASTS. Pretty interesting. Could see why that tie-up gets a little bit more real, but it could also be many other things, and we'll all find out. There continues to be this rapid shift toward sovereignty. This is a theme that I think is valid in many industries. I put on a little, is this very small position for me relative to AST, but I bought this IQMX, which is like a recent SPAC, just because I'd done pretty well on HQ. Now, I'm not going to convince anyone that I know anything about quantum. So, you know, that would truly make me a guru. But having said that, If it's the leading company in Europe, where Europe is definitely not going to rely on IBM and shift its quantum ambitions to the US, I'm going to buy the thing that provides sovereignty. Again, very, very small trade for me, but it's an extension of the same thesis as to what I believe is going to happen to ASTS. And we're seeing this. We have this note from Anpanman where the front runner for the European satellite spectrum is And so the EU, Japan, all these countries, we saw South Korea, they all want to have their own access to a constellation to break their reliance on SpaceX. I still believe that these countries are not going to be able to do it themselves. It's just an uneconomic thing to do. It makes a lot more sense to have a creative structure that gives them the control and the sovereignty, yet Deals with the fact that a constellation is fundamentally a global economies of scale business that is best done with multiple clients, multi-client business. And ASTS is set up to accommodate that. And so if you're looking for reasons why ASTS is adding capacity at breakneck speed, you could listen to Tim Ferriss. You could also listen to the Grinch. On the nonexistence of Christmas, everyone can listen to whoever they want. Tim would say, "Well, look how inefficiently they're making satellites." Well, go to hell, Tim. They just shipped three pretty quickly of brand new composite satellites. Perhaps they're adding capacity for something else. We've always believed that they're adding capacity for specific government programs. So until proven wrong, that's my belief. And as you see these sovereign. these sovereignty-based projects pick up. That's what I think is happening. And then we again go back to Golden Dome. You know, this is really kind of like our second FirstNet, you know, which is the original Alamo for Space Mob. It'll happen one day, I promise you. But another Smith here who's really kind of a clearly an expert is really all I can say, um, who is following some of the FCC filings. And ASTS is responding to the FCC about some of their 900 MHz stuff, and a lot of it's redacted. A lot of it looks like its capabilities, uh, relating to radio location for SDA and for non-communication use cases starts to look a lot like Golden Dome. And that all ties then. This is the mosaic we're looking at. And so a key concept in investing is, um, there's a fork in the road between illegally trading on insider information, which you do not want to do, and figuring something out before the market by putting together a mosaic of small little pieces. And so things that by themselves are not material But are also public, but are like not super public. And so you have to look and you have to put these things together, just like we put together J. Leo. It's out there. I think it's very material, but you had to put some things together. We put together Verizon. That was material. We figured it out. It was in the FCC filing, you know, in so many words. I believe we've figured out T-Mobile. That's very material. not announced yet. These are the things that through mosaic investing you can have a very good picture of what is likely to happen and then pull your hair out when the stock price goes down and you're wondering, why is it not going up? Because I know all these things are going to happen. Why is the stock going down? And it's because they have not yet happened. And that's where you can really confuse yourself. And that's where the saying we have of know what you own comes into play. And this is really the Mindset that I've adopted over 20 years is, you know, really understanding things at an insane level so that I inoculate myself from the volatility. Part of that's also how you hold something. And so it's very difficult for a hedge fund guy to inoculate yourself from the volatility because your portfolio manager is going to not trust you. It's another thing to do this in your you know, for me, I guess like what would now be considered a family office, I'm accountable to only me. And so when I, you know, eat shit on a stock like this, I don't have to be accountable to anyone and I can be wrong, but I know what I own, I think. And so I can weather the storm. And that's the key thing that you can see tragically in periods like this where a lot of people were getting liquidated on their position or having options expire worthless. These are the sad things because what were they really getting hit by? They're getting hit by the manifestation of the momentum factor having a brutal correction because of some South Korean margin calls and then the cascading de-risking of the AI complex. This is a co-owner risk. Your risk is what the guy sitting next to you had done to himself, which then caused a re-rack of security prices, which then actually causes a real impact to you. You want to avoid co-owner risk because it knocks you out of your trade. It's a super sucky thing to have happen to you. And my only wish for people is twofold. One, that it never happens to you. And second, if it does happen to you, to survive it and learn from it and don't repeat the mistake. It's better to get wealthy over a longer period of time than to have the risk of blowing your life up. in the hope of getting rich faster, but then exposing yourself to the sharp edge of the sword of volatility. So what we've had is a general expectation reset. So we've pierced the bubble of 45 satellites in 2026. It's gone. We can now blame the launch provider as classic satellite manufacturers would do. It's like, oh, we would've been ready, but our launch vehicle got delayed. You know, it's like, okay, We can believe that story, but the reality is they were probably going to be delayed anyway. And that's okay because these things are really hard to ramp, which is also why it's going to be incredibly difficult for there to be competition. Us as the pioneer in this industry have some advantage that people who are coming after us do not have. And so what's hard for us is going to be much, much harder down the line for others. And so the difficulty you can see in terms of how we're navigating this, just remember, we're making incredible strides on our own product roadmap. Companies like MDA, I don't really even know where they are, let alone their ability to then catch us at some point. And so when people see the delays and the slippage, just remember, slippage against what? The future slippage other people are going to have, you know, that's going to be many, many times greater. It's always got to be relative. And so the pain is brutal, but the pain can sometimes be short. And so when living through these corrections, it's sort of like the movie Interstellar where like 1 minute of losses is like 7 years of gains in terms of like how your brain processes it. And so it's brutal. Like I feel like the stock has only gone down forever. That's sort of my current mindset, and certainly you can see the sentiment. But then when you look at, you know, zooming out on a chart, charts can be good. Tough for Us, Tough for R put a nice chart out just showing kind of previous convert issuances, and when they're done, sort of when the stock is already dragging, the stock can actually just shoot up really fast. And Reformed Trader, one of my favorites, really one of my favorite people, Did another really good analysis just showing kind of where we are. And I think he's really encouraged also of kind of how the chart's shaping up. You know, it's always the voodoo of things. They can always tell you what you want to hear, but I'm pretty optimistic that we had a big clearing event. Anyone that was kind of expecting or fearing capital raise just got it. I think the convert guys hit the hedging hard because the last convert, these guys got nuked because the stock traded off more than they thought. I just know this because I'm friends with these guys. And so, you know, fool me once, these guys got their hedges off real fast this time. And that's why I think we might've popped so hard on Friday and we'll see what next week brings. But we have launch coming up. The company is executing. Jay Liao's coming. There's a lot of events people can figure out. You've got the SpaceX trade unwinding where I think people are going to be shorting SpaceX. They already are. And then longing ASTS, which is of a low-quality trade, but one they'll probably do nonetheless. And so I'm pretty excited about where we go from— I'm actually really excited about where we go from here, which is a real flip from where I was on Tuesday of just sort of, woe is me. We're increasingly convinced that T-Mobile is happening and talk about this a lot with sort of the crew and Pan Man just reminding us that That T-Mobile Starlink deal expires this week. One year of exclusivity ends this week. And we know that these partners are getting divorced the way they've spoken. And then we had Chris Sambar join T-Mobile, who was our champion at AT&T. We're testing on T-Mobile's spectrum. We had T-Mobile form a JV with AT&T and Verizon. I mean, I guess we could be wrong, but boy, that would certainly be inconsistent with the facts. And so why do the MNOs care so much about this service to begin with? And so another Smith here put, you know, shared this really great interview, which everyone should listen to. It's the tweet I titled, Why MNOs Care So Much. And it just talks about how the MNOs view it as a very significant market opportunity when you start to think not about just solving for zero bars of service, but solving for the one bar of service. And so this is sort of what plagues my life. You know, if you get, you know, a lot of the places I go, which are places that people like me go, and there's lots of people like me, These are 1-bar service areas, and to be able to boost that so that you can start to have some data, have reliable connections, this goes a country mile in terms of customer satisfaction. This goes toward increased ARPU, all sorts of things. The MNOs care deeply about this, and so this is why they are focused on it. But alas, you can know all these things and still get demolished. And so it's worthwhile just to also look what's going on around us. Shae Belor puts out, you know, his little list of— he called it the future is on sale right now. And it just shows, you know, everything from Oclo to Enbis, you know, basically the list of go-go stocks are down between 75% and 40%. And, you know, certainly ASTS decided to join the top-heavy crowd there, being down 58%. So we're not alone. It's this momentum factor just got brutalized. And that's why one thing I realized a long time ago, this didn't age well unfortunately, but the reason why people just didn't own SaaS stocks is it was hard. You know, you should have just bought ServiceNow and things like that in 2012 once you kind of figured out SaaS and then just like lived with it. These things compounded really well. But they'd have these 30 to 40% drawdowns that would knock everyone out. And that's why people just didn't hold them for the long term. And so once you sort of start to appreciate the consistency of these sharp drawdowns, you understand why it's not easy. You understand why people don't get rich buying and holding stocks. The enemy is within. It is you. that get scared when stocks go down 30 or 40%. Either you freak out and sell it, you go, Kook's an idiot, I'm not buying that piece of shit, or you're on margin, or you have short-term options. All of these things sometimes combined, which is a particularly bad setup, conspire to deprive you of making money. And so what I always kind of found funny is I'd have this account that I never really checked, and I owned things like Cadence and KLA, in ServiceNow. And I just like, literally just because JP Morgan has a really terrible interface, I just wouldn't log into this account. And so I'd check it every couple years and I'd be like, oh wow, how did I make 6x my money? Like I didn't even look at it. And meanwhile, I'm looking at ASTS every nanosecond of my life. And that's not good. I do it because my SLAs require it. If I want to be getting my T-shirts and stuff. You know, I got to maintain my service requirements, but you should not do what I do. You should kind of understand your thesis, understand that the thesis is unlikely to change very quickly. And that statement will be more true in like 6 months when the competitive advantages are a little bit more clear. And then you just set and forget. You know, like once you understood that people like Costco, you just, there's going to be more of them. And you just look at where your wife spends money and she, you know, every time you go to Costco, you spend $400. Like it's not going out of business anytime soon. And so all you have to do sometimes is have the simple observations and then just let 'em ride. And market wipeouts like this are the challenge. That is the hurdle on the race of investing that most people hit their shins on. And the key thing I've really focused on as an investor is contextualizing that So that I don't get knocked out. That's all I'll say on that. The FCC increased our TAM, and so again, speaking of good things get better and why just kind of setting and forgetting can be good, the FCC is proposing to expand direct-to-device satellite connectivity beyond smartphones to include things like Wi-Fi, Bluetooth, unlicensed devices. [00:29:40] Speaker A: Wow. [00:29:41] Speaker C: Agricultural sensors, tractors. Jonathan Cooper did a really great write-up with beautiful emojis. Utility infrastructure, pipelines, rail networks, remote industrial equipment, public safety devices, you name it, everything's connected. And so that's where the TAM explodes and that's where the shorts, I think, get it wrong. They're like, well, you know, I don't have any dead zones, you know, and they live like in a flat area next to a cell phone tower. And yeah, okay, well, you know, sure. When you look at a map too, it shows really high connectivity, but it misses how frequently people come in and out of connectivity. But then what it really misses is the change in the world. Everything is connected and these things have to have backup connectivity. And also people don't want towers. And so all of these things are conspiring To open up the available market for direct-to-consumer services and non-terrestrial networks. That's why I think this is a very difficult market to quantify. I don't know how big it is, but I think that if you are the low-cost, low-friction provider, you will win. My friend that was surfing just texted me when we were surfing, some idiot stole the battery out of his bike, which should be capital punishment. And felt bad 'cause I couldn't fit his bike in my truck. And he just texted me and he said, you made it home. But the type of guy I am, I was gonna go drive back and get him and just unload my truck, go back. So, you know, friends with Cook, you have a guy that's gonna come, come bail you out if your e-bike gets sabotaged. Um, you know, Space Mile ride or die. So then we also have, uh, AOC. Cheering on the banning of data centers. And so it's kind of remarkable how the tide is turning on AI. I don't know if it has legs or not, but it's worth noting that it's getting to be kind of popular to ban data centers. So what are we going to do? You know, people are worried about power. That's a legit concern to worry about. And they're worried about water. I don't, you know, worry about everything. And so if the ultimate cost of data centers go up, then the relative Competitiveness of space-based data centers increases. So just something to monitor. But you want to talk about TAM explosion? There it is for ASTS. That's an entirely different vector of market cap that might might one day be hitting us. And then we also have something that we have talked about many moons ago, which is really just the removal of copper services as. Landlines get removed. So the MNOs hate landlines. They're really expensive to maintain. You have to have these copper networks and you are mandated to do it because people are entitled to have 911 services, which seems like a good requirement by government. The MNOs want to get rid of this. They'd save a lot of money if they could just figure out some other way to meet those service requirements. AT&T, it's in the posted document that I have on my pinned tweet, has a really elegant solution that uses ASTS to provide guaranteed service because it's, it's not enough just to have a cell phone repeater. What if that goes down, especially if there's like a catastrophe and the base station runs out of battery? What are you going to do? And so this is where they start to pair it with ASTS. This allows them to save Billions of dollars. But here we have Steve Hilton, who's the government or the governor candidate for California, bringing attention to the fact that the bureaucrats in DC are forcing Californians to give up their landlines. And this is a political issue for him that's you know seniors and rural residents are at risk. Well, there is a solution with ASTS. Just something to monitor again. It goes to the TAM. And then lastly, it is always kind of remarkable just how early we are. And so Anpan was generous in posting the UBS report, and they do a 47-page deep dive on the impact of satellites on the European telecom sector, but they do not mention AST SpaceMobile. So as he points out, it's often an overused claim. by us, but we truly believe we are early. And I believe that too. And that makes it sometimes just even more frustrating because the stock price goes down and you assume, what does everyone else know? Why am I so stupid? Why didn't I sell? And if you're still undiscovered, you just, you really just might be ahead of your time. And that's something that I'm always surprised by when a stock will all of a sudden just rip multiples on me. And I just kind of realized, I'm like, oh my God, I was just really early. And that's actually something I've had a danger in my career where I'd be really early to something and extrapolate out what I think's going to happen and then lose money because I'd get stuck, you know, sort of in the early phase where companies are way more volatile, way more susceptible to the momentum factor risk, interest rate risk, things like that, and just get stuffed and then ultimately get proven right. I would end up being like a year or two early on things. In this case, I think I was like 5 years early, which is definitely not ideal. But this is still not a household name and the time will come. So I'm really excited about the next 3 weeks. We're going to have launch and maybe we get some of these news items that could really inflect us, whether that's Jay Liao, T-Mobile or something else. It certainly looks like we're having a pot of water that might be reaching a boiling point, and now we've just ripped off the bandaid with a capital raise. And so now we've reloaded and have incredible financial capacity to pursue this growth. So it's an exciting time, and the stock price is lower. So that means that, you know, it's a cheaper valuation for anyone that wasn't fully invested or was looking to add. So thanks everyone for joining me, uh, early, and I appreciate it. And I, I'm really excited about this week actually, and I think that there's a lot of positive developments that the company is on the cusp of informing us about. So have a great evening everyone, and we will talk again next week. [00:36:20] Speaker A: Thanks for listening to the AST SpaceMobile Podcast. If you enjoyed this episode and you'd like to help support the podcast, please share it with others, post about it on social media, or leave a rating and review. To catch all the latest news about AST SpaceMobile, please visit ast.spacemobile.com. Space Mobile, make sure to subscribe. Thanks again, and I'll see you next time. Listen. Mmm, waffles.
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