Episode

Anpanman & Kook: Why Did AST SpaceMobile Do a Convert at $58?

2026-07-16 58:49 Anpanman · Kook

Anpanman and Kook recorded live right after AST SpaceMobile priced a $1.0 billion convertible note (announced July 15, 2026) with the stock down near $58.

They unpack why the company raised capital now rather than waiting: cheapening convert-market conditions, SpaceX's own credit spreads widening, and the Blue Origin New Glenn launchpad explosion forcing AST to plan on buying more SpaceX launch capacity.

They argue the timing reflects disciplined capital management rather than any change in AST's underlying trajectory. They point to the same-day unfurling of the first composite Block 2 BlueBird satellite, the newly disclosed advanced J-Leo talks with Rakuten, and a reframed MVNO 'prisoner's dilemma' thesis that they say removes competitive urgency versus Starlink.

The headline conclusion: despite a roughly 56%+ drawdown and real personal losses for both hosts, they remain highly bullish, expecting the stock's history of 70%-in-ten-days moves to reassert itself as launch, JV, and Golden Dome-related catalysts land in coming quarters.

Key Takeaways

  • AST SpaceMobile priced a $1.0 billion convertible senior note on July 15, 2026 (1.625% coupon, due 2034) while the stock traded near $58; Anpanman and Kook conclude the timing was forced by external credit-market conditions rather than planned weeks in advance.
  • Anpanman and Kook argue SpaceX's own credit spreads have been widening — due to concerns about xAI, Starship capital needs, and SpaceX's overall business mix — making SpaceX a shaky reference credit for ASTS bonds, compounded by a wave of new convertible issuance from 'Mag 7' companies that is cheapening the whole convert market.
  • They tie the decision partly to the Blue Origin New Glenn launchpad explosion, which suspended that launch program for months and is expected to force AST to buy additional SpaceX Falcon 9 launch capacity, adding urgency to raise cash even at a depressed share price.
  • Anpanman and Kook argue that because Starlink is increasingly viewed by mobile carriers as a competitive threat to their own fixed wireless and mobile businesses, no major MNO wants to actively work with Starlink now — which they say removes the prior competitive urgency for AST to hit near-term launch dates.
  • Anpanman frames AST's US carrier joint venture as functioning like a 'prisoner's dilemma' stopgap that discourages any single MNO from defecting to give Starlink MVNO access to their spectrum and subscriber base.
  • Anpanman and Kook highlight the same-day (per the episode) unfurling of the first composite-construction Block 2 BlueBird satellite as a major technical milestone, distinguishing it from earlier prototype/pathfinder satellites (BlueWalker 3, Block 1, FM1/FM2) as the first true proof point for AST's scalable manufacturing design.
  • Kook recalls Scott Wisniewski telling him around September 2025 that some government/defense use cases (implied to be Golden Dome-related) could require a dedicated satellite production line of roughly 240 additional satellites, which Anpanman and Kook connect to AST's current Midland, Texas manufacturing expansion and recent large hiring push.
  • Both hosts discuss AST's ongoing spectrum accumulation (Grain Management 800 MHz, Ligado L-band, Brazil and expected Europe S-band allocations) as a value driver they believe the market underappreciates today, expecting a gradual re-rating as more of these deals are understood, similar to how the market initially criticized the Ligado L-band deal before it proved highly valuable.
  • Kook and Anpanman acknowledge significant personal financial losses from the stock's drawdown (Kook says he lost nine figures) but say they remain long-term holders, expecting near-term catalysts like a Batch 3 satellite launch, further SpaceX launch-capacity purchases, J-Leo JV formalization, and eventual Golden Dome disclosures to drive a recovery.
  • Anpanman and Kook push back on a bearish analyst (referred to as Kevin Mack) who argued a 90%-gross-margin business like AST shouldn't trade at a premium multiple to revenue, arguing AST is building toward being the world's largest wireless company with potentially close to a billion subscribers plus a government/defense business, unlike a low-margin retail business.

Detailed Discussion8 topics

Convert Timing and Credit Market Dynamics

5
  • Kook Speculation 00:02:13

    Describes 'hindsight capital' — credit traders are focused on total new convertible-bond issuance; the 'Mag 7' (e.g. Google, Meta) becoming large new bond issuers (potentially ~$20 billion deals) is scaring credit markets used to buyback-driven capital return, creating oversupply that could cheapen converts broadly; combined with SpaceX credit widening and no clean unsecured reference credit for ASTS, this creates a narrow window forcing a binary now-or-later financing decision.

  • Anpanman Speculation 00:04:01

    Agrees the SpaceX credit-widening angle wasn't something he'd contemplated; notes the space sector has broadly derated amid worsening conditions in Iran, even as company-specific opportunities are coming to a head; believes bankers and Scott Wisniewski likely saw credit conditions only getting worse, prompting them to act now.

  • Anpanman Confirmed 00:04:22

    States the capped call transaction raised the effective conversion strike price to $149, and while the base coupon is 1.625%, the capped call cost means the effective all-in cost is higher — still comparatively cheap.

  • Kook Speculation 00:04:58

    Does mental math that the capped-call-adjusted effective cost is roughly 3.25%, and notes the structure still produces positive carry for AST.

  • Kook Speculation 00:05:09

    Says two separate contacts independently raised SpaceX credit widening with him, suggesting it's front-of-mind for credit investors, comparing it to how Oracle's credit spread became a widely watched market proxy; argues SpaceX is a mixed credit profile given xAI ('a money vaporization machine'), Starship ('a company that blows up rockets for data'), a high-capex ISP business, and Cursor.

Why Raise Now: Blue Origin Setback and Capital Strategy

6
  • Kook Untagged 00:06:26

    Admits to personal losses from the drawdown (says he 'lost nine figures' over the past two months) and feels foolish for not hedging with downside trades, but says he was never going to sell his ASTS stock regardless.

  • Anpanman Speculation 00:08:17

    Argues the company can't run itself like a short-term option and must think long-term; acknowledges in hindsight they could have raised earlier at $80–100, but questions whether convert buyers would have been there then, and notes doing an offering at a lower price can be more attractive to buyers than a higher one.

  • Anpanman Speculation 00:09:15

    Argues waiting into August/September was risky because of Iran-related uncertainty, US midterm elections potentially causing Congressional gridlock, and August being a historically slow/thin market period; notes the company disclosed advanced J-Leo discussions with Rakuten for the first time via a Reg FD filing, reflecting a real near-term opportunity worth funding ahead of macro uncertainty.

  • Kook Speculation 00:10:18

    Agrees you can't count on conditions improving later; expects AST will need to quickly buy additional SpaceX Falcon 9 launch capacity to offset the Blue Origin loss (estimates this could burn through roughly half a billion dollars fast), reducing AST's cash cushion; argues the company now needs to be funded like a 'hyperscaler' needing 'adult money.'

  • Anpanman Company Guidance 00:12:32

    Notes Scott Wisniewski had told people weeks earlier the company was not planning a convert, but that was before the Blue Origin explosion; once bankers offered attractively cheap convert terms amid the mounting opportunities, Scott had to choose between an ATM raise or a convert and went with the convert.

  • Anpanman Company Guidance 00:13:18

    Notes the company updated guidance to 45 satellites in orbit by early 2027 rather than year-end 2026.

MVNO Prisoner's Dilemma, Starlink Threat, and the US Carrier JV

5
  • Anpanman Speculation 00:13:18

    Argues that a year or two ago, being late by even a quarter would have been a real competitive problem versus Starlink signing up MNOs, but today AST is in a position of privilege where every MNO wants to work with it because they see what Starlink/SpaceX is doing; says the US carrier JV was created as a competitive counter, not a race against Starlink, and that being delayed by a quarter or a few quarters is no longer as urgent as long as the product/service is delivered correctly.

  • Anpanman Speculation 00:15:00

    Says this framing was emphasized to him in a brief conversation with AST management on the day of recording; states SpaceX CFO Brian Johnson is hoping the MNOs will defect from each other in a prisoner's-dilemma dynamic so one ends up working with Starlink, but believes MNOs are smarter than that because their core fixed wireless/mobile businesses are at risk.

  • Kook Speculation 00:16:07

    Says Anpanman's MVNO framing clarified his prior confusion about the JV's purpose; previously worried (partly influenced by a critic he refers to only as 'he who shall remain unnamed,' apparently analyst Tim Farrar/'Tim Ferrara') that the JV could function as a buyer's cartel to pressure ASTS pricing, which he doubted the FTC would allow; now sees the real value as the implicit MVNO angle, which forces Starlink into a costly 'Charlie Ergen game of chicken' of building its own physical towers — a low-ROA business he thinks Wall Street would hate given SpaceX's other capital-intensive ventures (Cursor, a 'NeoCloud reseller' AI business, and Starship needed to keep Starlink viable).

  • Anpanman Speculation 00:18:43

    Floats that SpaceX could instead buy Dish's unfinished terrestrial network build-out (estimates roughly 70% of US population covered) as a path to a credible terrestrial threat, though notes MNOs would view that very negatively; recalls a Bloomberg article about SpaceX-Charter discussions that he believes was floated by SpaceX/Starlink to scare MNOs into believing Starlink would build a real terrestrial network to force a prisoner's-dilemma defection.

  • Anpanman Speculation 00:19:35

    Predicts that as this dynamic plays out in the US, other markets' MNOs (e.g., Japan's KDDI) will also come to see working with Starlink as too risky and eventually shift toward AST SpaceMobile; says he ran an informal poll asking when KDDI would move to AST.

MVNO Change-of-Control and Transferability Question

2
  • Kook Untagged 00:20:39

    Asks whether existing cable-company MVNO agreements (e.g., Charter/Spectrum's arrangement, reportedly first done with Verizon) would be transferable if SpaceX acquired the cable company, or whether such deals typically carry change-of-control triggers.

  • Anpanman Untagged 00:21:08

    Believes there is likely some change-of-control provision, noting cable companies contributed spectrum as part of their MVNO deals (citing Verizon as an early MVNO partner), but is unsure of the exact structure and says it's 'homework' to look into further; agrees AT&T couldn't buy a cable company and expect Verizon to honor that MVNO agreement.

Stock Regime Shifts, Catalysts, and Blue Origin Capital Raise Speculation

5
  • Kook Untagged 00:21:39

    Reflects on being surprised by past sudden 'regime shifts' in the stock (recalling being distracted during a prior rip in the stock last June) and wonders what specifically triggers the next inflection point, noting the stock has moved as much as 70% in about 10 days before.

  • Anpanman Speculation 00:23:26

    Believes the recent capital raise now being 'cleared' makes for a good entry point for institutions, and that AST is clearly buying more SpaceX launch capacity.

  • Kook Speculation 00:23:52

    Spitballs a theory that a reported roughly $10 billion Blue Origin capital raise might be connected to AST's timing — guessing AST could put in $100–150 million as a cap-table investment/vote of confidence, jokingly comparing it to a 'sidecar' Anthropic-style investment, and imagines Blue Origin could become the market's preferred 'clean' space company if New Glenn achieves cadence and if Amazon's Kuiper were eventually folded in.

  • Anpanman Speculation 00:26:03

    Explicitly clarifies the company is not going to buy a launch company itself, but floats that AST could hypothetically be part of financial backing if Sierra Space or Blue Origin were to acquire ULA.

  • Kook Disagreement 00:26:26

    Cautions that AST actually buying a launch company would, in his view, validate the bearish narrative from 'Rocket Lab guys' and would be an operational overreach; both hosts note recent public confusion (citing a Tim Ferriss/Farrar tweet thread) mistakenly assuming AST was buying a launch company, when the intent is only to purchase launches/capacity, not acquire a launch provider.

Golden Dome, Midland Expansion, and Spectrum Strategy

7
  • Anpanman Speculation 00:34:04

    Notes that scaling manufacturing from 6 satellites/month toward 10–12/month only makes sense for government purposes, citing a Twitter comment suggesting classified programs might require a fully separate building.

  • Kook Company Guidance 00:34:39

    Recalls Scott Wisniewski saying, around September 2025, that AST planned to set up a new dedicated Micron production facility, implicitly for Golden Dome-related, non-communications government use cases; recalls Scott specifically saying such use cases could involve an extra roughly 240 satellites as their own dedicated production line, and speculates these could even require a different type of satellite processor/chip given potential classification requirements.

  • Anpanman Speculation 00:36:15

    Ties this to AST's cash position (roughly $3 billion, now down to about $2.7 billion) and the principle that a $25–30 billion market-cap company should never let cash fall below about $1 billion; connects recent moves around a 400,000-square-foot Midland production facility and previously mocked job postings for around 500 open positions as evidence the company is spending ahead of an anticipated (not yet disclosed) Golden Dome opportunity.

  • Anpanman Speculation 00:38:xx

    Notes Grain Management's spectrum deal got regulatory approval faster than expected; says AST is working with Grain, which will select a vendor to light up that 800 MHz spectrum, and speculates AST may need to contribute economically for rights to use it; also floats that a Department of War-linked Ligado settlement could shift more spectrum economics, or that Viasat could eventually spin off or merge its S-band spectrum with AST.

  • Kook Speculation 00:38:42

    Says acquiring global S-band (e.g., via a hypothetical Viasat deal) would be thematically simple and valuable versus deals like Grain, whose value the market may not immediately recognize — comparing spectrum accumulation to 'digging out a riverbed' before it's clear there's 'water' (revenue) to fill it.

  • Anpanman Speculation 00:41:04

    Argues AST likely doesn't need a Viasat transaction because it is independently accumulating S-band spectrum cheaply or for free in the markets that matter — citing an already-granted 10x10 MHz allocation in Brazil, an expected similar 10x10 MHz in Europe, and roughly 10 other markets being pursued — suggesting investors betting on a Viasat-AST S-band deal may be disappointed.

  • Kook Speculation 00:42:19

    Says he hopes AST does not acquire whole companies (unless it's a pure spectrum deal), citing the operational-integration risk of absorbing a company like Iridium's 'legacy culture' (as Rocket Lab is doing) versus AST's current lean structure; believes gradual spectrum 'blocking and tackling' will be an underappreciated value-creation mechanism that the market only recognizes in hindsight.

First Composite Block 2 Satellite Unfurl and Near-Term Launch Catalysts

6
  • Kook Speculation 00:43:38

    Says the simplest driver of a stock rebound is likely still just launch; expects a 'Batch 3' shipment soon and possibly a new multi-launch agreement (MLA) with SpaceX or added launch certainty even if AST has to pay up, which would restore confidence after the Blue Origin-driven 'TAM deliverability' scare.

  • Anpanman Speculation 00:44:44

    Clarifies AST already has an MLA with SpaceX; the open question is just purchasing additional launch options, which may not be separately publicized but could be disclosed in an earnings-call context (e.g., moving from a handful of purchased launches to two handfuls).

  • Anpanman Speculation 00:45:26

    Says the market initially reacted very negatively to the Ligado spectrum deal (questioning why AST needed spectrum at all), yet the roughly $2 billion economic-equivalent deal is now believed to be worth around $20 billion, drawing a parallel to SpaceX buying EchoStar, Amazon buying Globalstar, and Rocket Lab buying Iridium; expects AST's other spectrum wins (Grain, Brazil/Europe S-band) to be gradually re-rated similarly.

  • Kook Untagged 00:47:57

    Notes the same-day unfurling of the first composite Block 2 satellite is a final 'de-risker' ahead of the convert pricing, since convert buyers effectively wanted proof the satellite would deploy before committing capital.

  • Anpanman Confirmed 00:48:51

    States this marks the first time a composite Block 2 satellite has been unfolded in orbit (distinct from FM1/FM2), calling it a major milestone; notes three more Block 2 satellites have been shipped to Cape Canaveral.

  • Kook Untagged 00:49:07

    Says this is the first true proof point toward the ultimate scalable manufacturing model, contrasting it with earlier 'prototype' vehicles (BlueWalker 3, Block 1, FM1) that he'd previously worried weren't representative of the real production design.

Investor Psychology, Personal Losses, and Skeptics

5
  • Kook Untagged 00:27:57

    Vents frustration at online critics — citing an analyst nicknamed 'Eric the Umpire' who posted a lengthy thread arguing the dilution is positive, and a mocking video — while admitting he is embarrassed the stock trades around $60 and feels visceral urges for vindication if the stock recovers to $150.

  • Kook Speculation 00:30:26

    Argues his core belief is that Abel Avellan and Scott Wisniewski are ethical, and there is 'not a chance' Avellan's prepaid forward transaction was executed knowing a convert would follow right after Andrew Johnson told investors no convert was planned, since that would risk securities misrepresentation; concludes something must have changed operationally or in market conditions in the prior two weeks — and that the successful satellite unfurl confirms it wasn't a defensive raise driven by bad news.

  • Kook Speculation 00:53:47

    Theorizes that the aggressive short covering seen recently may reflect the unwinding of an index-arbitrage 'reverse conversion' trade (short stock plus long synthetic position, speculated to be run by funds like Millennium) rather than shorts anticipating the capital raise; questions whether the correlation with a Starship launch outcome (success or failure) would help or hurt ASTS.

  • Kook Disagreement 00:55:37

    Mocks a bearish Substack article by an analyst referred to as Kevin Mack arguing a company with AST's ~90% gross margin should trade at only about 3 times revenue.

  • Anpanman Disagreement 00:56:22

    Rebuts that framing, arguing AST is building toward being the largest wireless company in the world with potentially several hundred million to roughly a billion subscribers at scale, plus a government business, which does not fit a low-margin, grocery-store-style 3x-revenue valuation.

Watch Items7

  • Batch 3 (BlueBird 11-13) shipment and launch

    expected soon, per hosts Kook 00:43:38
  • Possible additional SpaceX launch-capacity purchase (existing MLA, more options)

    near-term, may surface on an earnings call rather than a standalone press release Anpanman 00:44:44
  • Formalization of the J-Leo joint venture with Rakuten

    advanced discussions disclosed via Reg FD; not yet formal Anpanman 00:09:15
  • Golden Dome-related contract/production-line disclosure

    unclear — spending is happening now, disclosure timing unknown Anpanman 00:36:15
  • Grain Management spectrum vendor selection

    upcoming, not yet finalized Anpanman 00:38:00
  • US midterm elections and potential Congressional gridlock

    ahead of the November 2026 midterms Anpanman 00:09:15
  • Starship launch outcome and its read-through for ASTS sentiment

    unspecified upcoming launch Kook 00:54:59

Open Questions7

  • Are existing cable-company MVNO agreements (e.g., Charter/Spectrum) transferable, or do they contain change-of-control provisions that would prevent SpaceX from inheriting that MVNO capacity if it acquired a cable company?

    Kook 00:20:39
  • What specifically triggers AST SpaceMobile's historical rapid stock 'regime shifts' (including moves of up to 70% in about 10 days), and can the next one be anticipated?

    Kook 00:22:47
  • Will Blue Origin's reported roughly $10 billion capital raise include a strategic investment from AST, and could Blue Origin eventually absorb Amazon's Kuiper to form a cleaner competitor narrative to SpaceX?

    Kook 00:23:52
  • Could AST SpaceMobile participate in financing a Blue Origin or Sierra Space acquisition of ULA?

    Anpanman 00:26:03
  • Will Viasat monetize or spin off its S-band spectrum in a deal with AST, or is AST's own organic spectrum accumulation (Brazil, Europe, ~10 other markets) sufficient to make that unnecessary?

    Anpanman 00:41:04
  • When will AST formally disclose Golden Dome-related government contracts or the dedicated production line reportedly being planned for such use cases?

    Anpanman 00:36:15
  • Will other international MNOs, such as Japan's KDDI, eventually shift from Starlink-linked arrangements to AST SpaceMobile given the US MVNO/prisoner's-dilemma dynamic?

    Anpanman 00:19:35

Raw Transcript

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[00:00:55] Speaker A: This is the AST SpaceMobile Podcast. We just basically come there from, uh, be seamless regardless of where you are.
[00:01:12] Speaker B: We don't want the user even to know that it's connected by satellite. Listen, the opportunity that we have is very, very, very large.
[00:01:23] Speaker A: Hey there.
[00:01:24] Speaker B: Yeah, I did that. Must took out a couple cars on the freeway. Um, but, uh, hey everyone.
[00:01:32] Speaker A: Yeah, yeah, we figured we were talking and then we were like, oh, you know, it'd actually be good for people to hear this conversation. So maybe we'll just restart what we were talking, discussing.
[00:01:44] Speaker B: Yeah, I was just, well, I was waiting for you to to go to the restroom, just so everyone knows we're having a transparent conversation about what a climber is doing. I was just listening to Human Nature by Michael Jackson because so much of this to me is just human psychology. So, um, I don't know, should we— we want to just kind of start maybe somewhere at the beginning and we just kind of flow through where all kind of what we were thinking about?
[00:02:07] Speaker A: Yeah, uh, I guess should we start with the convert? How about that? Yeah, of course.
[00:02:13] Speaker B: Yeah. All right, maybe the easy thing is like how hindsight capital always wins. And so, you know, it's like when I was talking to some of my buddies, you know, the big issue among convert traders is just what the total new issuance is going to be. And you and I had talked about where I was like, I don't know, like, is the S&P 500 a good investment now? Because you went from everyone buying back stocks, this massive capital return story, to all of a sudden, like, the Mag 7 is an issuer now. That's scary. And and how are we going to absorb like twenty billion dollar issues by Google Meta you know or like blah blah blah. So all of a sudden, like if I'm Scott, I'm sitting there getting the same update from bankers going, you know there's a lot of new issuance and converts and supply demand is basically you know basic right? These these bonds could just start to cheapen across the board, and then like SpaceX credit is widening, and there's no clean unsecured. Bond for ASTS. So in the in the model input, you got to find a reference credit, and you're not going to trade tight to SpaceX. Like come on! So you're going to be trading wide to SpaceX, which is widening in a market that's cheapening because of supply. It's July. So you could you could see it being a simple conversation with bankers where it's like you know. Now, or you get some stale french fries later. And then, yeah, you're forced into a binary decision. And then like, do you want capital or not? And that's the question is, well, what did they say previously and what would've changed? And that's the thing I know you and I have been spinning around on, like, you know, opium addicts of like, whoa, maybe they won this and that. You know, meanwhile people are like, or they're spending a lot of money.
[00:04:01] Speaker A: Yeah. So, well, I think your point about the SpaceX credit widening, that, that was something I didn't contemplate. Now, obviously, you know, things are getting worse in Iran, and then you, you know, the, the entire space sector has derated. And then at the same time, for the company, there's a tremendous amount of opportunities that have popped up or are coming to a head. And then I think what you were saying about SpaceX credit widening, the bankers and Scott is probably seeing that and thinking it's not going to get better, it's going to get worse. So we might as well just pull the trigger now, even though the stock price is low. But then the bankers came to them with a capped call transaction to get the strike price to $149. And so it's like, oh, okay, economically, that's pretty attractive. And then We're still paying a 1.625% coupon, although as you pointed out, because of the cap call, you pay for it.
[00:04:58] Speaker B: That's like 3.25% or whatever, mental math.
[00:05:00] Speaker A: 3.25%, but still, that's, that's still pretty cheap. And then I think you, I gotta brush up on my accounting, but I still think you get to—
[00:05:08] Speaker B: It's positive carry.
[00:05:09] Speaker A: Yeah. You get to, you get to also, I think it's a tack brought off on the payments for the cap call. The amortization of that, I think.
[00:05:21] Speaker B: Yeah. So I could, I could see the, I can see all the logic of that. And what's funny is, um, I got hit by 2 different people that just brought up the SpaceX credit widening. So now, now that I'm actually thinking about this out loud, the fact that that was like the thing brought up to me means that that is clearly taking front and center of what Credit investors are thinking about. Like this, this is this is probably like the oracle widening. And when you think about it, like SpaceX is like not a great credit. All it has is market cap. It doesn't. You know, you wouldn't naturally be like I'm going to lend against SpaceX. You're lending against like a money vaporization machine with XAI, a company that blows up rockets for data, a high capital intensity. internet service provider, and cursor.
[00:06:12] Speaker A: Yeah.
[00:06:12] Speaker B: You know, it's like not your, it's not your typical credit profile and, and like X. And so, you know, it has market cap and it's not, I, I don't like think SpaceX is going bankrupt, but all else equal, you know, you, you want to have that credit spread reflect something. So anyway, like in a, in a long duration asset, like an ASTS bond, having SpaceX wide end, all else equal, just creates some noise for you. Um, and, and also, you know, I've kind of gone through all the cycles of disbelief now. Like, it, I, you know, as I said to you, like, I just lost in the past 2 months, like, an astounding amount of money. It's, I can't even think, I can't even think about it. Like, I told my wife, I was like, oh, like, do you realize I just lost 9 figures? And that's when she's like, oh. You know, I'm like, yeah, that's why we don't fly fucking first class. You know, like there's a reason why. We don't do that because I didn't sell. And, you know, so it's like somewhat jarring, but, you know, Abel lost more. Scott lost less because he didn't YOLO himself like I did, but he still lost real money. And so none of these guys wanted to do this. And so they're, they're having to think about like a fiduciary. And, you know, it's like I was telling you, like, I wasn't going to sell any stock anyway this year. I'm like just locked. I'm not thinking about that until 2027. Yeah. And so all this is is just the psychological drama of dealing with like people trolling me in the comments cuz I have really thin skin and, you know, so that sucks. And then I feel like a dipshit for not having, you know, like put on some trading positions on this to the downside. But, you know, that's where the hopium gets me every time because of all this stuff that I think is likely to happen. And yeah. Yeah.
[00:08:02] Speaker A: And I think that's, that's what separates investors like us versus— oh yeah.
[00:08:09] Speaker B: That's what separates me from a reformed trader as to like being a long-only doofus versus a guy who's nimble. Yeah.
[00:08:17] Speaker A: But I think, I mean, to be fair, like the, going back to the company's decision, you know, they can't run the company like an option. They've got to think about the long term. And yes, should they have, in hindsight, capital, should they have raised at $100 or 90 or 80. They could have, but who knows if the convert buyers were there. I mean, you obviously need buyers before you can do an offering, and doing an offering down here is more attractive for them versus doing something higher. But I think, like you were saying, as we go into August, when everybody— if you think it's slow now, no one's going to be around in August. And they've got all these strategic initiatives, like they discussed Jay Leo for the first time in this Reg FD disclosure, which the company has said, you know, it's not formal yet. So there's only so much they can do, they can announce, but they decided to do so, at least say that they're in advanced discussions, which obviously with Rakuten, like, that's— they're the provider, like there's no one else. But in front of August, and you've got Iran uncertainty that's going on, you've got the midterms, which, you know, I think Trump whether you hate him or dislike him, he's— or hate him or love him, he has been a huge beneficiary. The space sector has been a huge beneficiary of his administration. And so you could see the midterms happen where all of a sudden Congress and Senate, I mean, people are dying too, like you could see a deadlock and things start grinding to a halt. So I think you, if you have a lot of massive growth opportunities in front of you that weren't there a few months ago, and then of course you've got to pay for launch, then you probably want to pull the trigger on financing now before all this stuff, which is uncertainty, starts coming to market. I think there was some criticism that people like, why didn't the company just wait for things to get better in August and September? And as I was saying before, like, don't really know if they're going to get that.
[00:10:18] Speaker B: Yeah, you really can't. I know you'd never, you actually really can't do that. The thing that always makes me just feel particularly stupid, um, one reason why I sometimes just want to delete my account is then I just don't feel like I have to go back and defend myself. But like in hindsight, as I sit here at this exact moment with this information, yeah, it's like, okay, the convert market is definitely cheapening because of the supply. The specific sector cheapening is unknown because like God only knows if SpaceX credit widens, if that becomes some weird proxy like Oracle did for something. Like, I don't want to, I don't want to feel that if I depend on new issuance. And then you're like, well, but they already have a lot of cash. But I mean, we, we both know they're going to spend a lot of money. The Blue Origin stuff was certainly a setback, um, of, of one that we don't, we don't really know. I, again, I think I'm maybe overly optimistic. I think I'm correctly optimistic that the market will self-heal in terms of the capacity we need to get metal in orbit will be there whenever I've tried to bridge it. But I, I get how they're probably going to go out and spray SpaceX to buy some Falcon 9 capacity in and above what they have. So that's almost a for sure thing.
[00:11:30] Speaker A: Yeah.
[00:11:30] Speaker B: And that could—
[00:11:31] Speaker A: and they should. And everybody was like, everybody was saying they should.
[00:11:35] Speaker B: Yeah. You guys should, you should totally do that until the stock goes down and then go to hell. Don't do that. But that's obviously an immature answer. So I try to embrace that. But so I could see how you could immediately spend half a billion dollars fast. And so then all of a sudden, you start to have a look at only having $1.5 billion cash. And I think we have to be thinking like a hyperscaler now, where just like Google turned on the spigot of like, well, we need real money. Um, this company needs real money too, because if we wanna play, uh, adult games, we need to have adult money. And yeah. Um, so I, I came to peace with that real fast. I always wish that I could anticipate this stuff a little bit more, but I certainly, I don't know if I got complacent, but I also kind of go a little bit to, well, what was I gonna do about it? 'Cause I wasn't gonna sell my stock.
[00:12:31] Speaker A: Yeah.
[00:12:32] Speaker B: And they had, they had all these pathways to, to not do a convert, which I frankly didn't have a convert on my bingo list. So, you know, I—
[00:12:40] Speaker A: Well, to be fair, they told people, Scott told people like, we're not gonna do a convert, but that was weeks before Blue Origin blew up. So, and then when you have bankers come to you and say, we can do this convert very cheaply and now's the time to do it, and you've got all this stuff in front of you, then Scott's gotta decide, do I do an ATM or do I do a convert? Just get it over with. And I think in this case, you know, he did the convert. But, but I think going back to your point about launch, you know, we had talked about how now they updated 45 in orbit in early 2027. And—
[00:13:18] Speaker B: Yeah.
[00:13:18] Speaker A: I think it's important for people to understand that in a world where going back a year or 2 years ago when Starlink was a viable option for MNOs, that would have been a problem. Like being late by a quarter, 2 quarters, 3 quarters, is a competitive problem, right? Where if Starlink is cozying up with MNOs and signing those contracts and adding customers, then we're falling behind in the race, even though we have the technological lead. But now, and this is something when I had a very brief conversation with management today, it's like this part was emphasized, which is we're in this like weird position now. Weird meaning it was unexpected, but now we are in a position of privilege where every MNO wants to work with us. They see what SpaceX is doing. And so we're not racing against Starlink because no one, the JV in the US was created to, as a competitive counter. And maybe they'll work with SpaceX or Starlink. T-Mobile will do so in some limited fashion. But for all intents and purposes, I don't think any MNOs from here on, unless They're, you know, they want to commit strategic suicide. I don't think any of them will actively choose to work with Starlink. And so now it's really, if we're delayed, but we're making sure that we're delivering the proper product and service, but it's going to take another quarter, 2 quarters, 3 quarters, whatever it is, it's not really a race against Starlink or that sense of urgency is not there. It's a matter of making sure obviously we get it right. You know, we don't have satellites get bricked when they're launched or, you know, obviously to get delivered to the wrong orbit. But we're not, it's not as if we're racing against, you know, SpaceX picking up all these MNOs. I think now it's very clear as SpaceX is in Starlink, you know, Brian Johnson, who's the CFO of SpaceX, you know, they're hoping that the MNOs through prisoner's dilemma, you know, backstab each other and someone ends up working with them. But in reality, I think all these guys are a bit smarter than that because they know that their core business is at risk, their fixed wireless business and broadband, cable, whatever, you name it. And then their mobile business is at risk. And so now whether we're delayed by a quarter, 2 quarters, or 3 quarters, it's not really as important. Obviously, we want to get to service quickly, but yeah, that dynamic has changed. And so I don't think I've said it many times, I don't think the market fully comprehends what that means. And I'm starting to see a little bit of a change in sell-side research where people are now starting to scratch the surface a little bit that maybe MNOs are not gonna work with Starlink. But yeah, it'll be interesting to see how that unravels in the next few quarters.
[00:16:07] Speaker B: I hadn't really thought through with the JV, I hadn't seen that MVNO angle as clearly until you had said it. And so that, that was interesting to me, um, as effectively a prisoner's dilemma stopgap on the MVNO angle. I, I'd always struggled a little bit with exactly what that JV was going to do. And I guess the reason I was struggling with that is because I hadn't as clearly seen the MVNO angle. But once you have that piece, Yeah. it's crystal clear what they did. And that's actually pretty ingenious because I think the things I was worried about with the JV, and I hate to say his name, but like what Tim Ferrara was saying, he who shall remain unnamed from now on, is, is it really a buyer's cartel to jam ASTS on price? And that's where, you know, I just couldn't see how the FTC would ever let that happen or why the MNOs would even play that game with the FTC. And so then the commercial contracts should remain independent. But then it's like, well, what did they really get? Maybe some spectrum pooling and stuff like that. But if the actual unsaid thing was the MVNO part, then there was a much stronger rationale for it, which is really crucial because to your point, then it forces SpaceX into a Charlie Ergen game of chicken of building out towers. And I have to believe Wall Street would hate that. Like, I don't think anyone wants them to be going in to hang towers. That's such a low ROA business and such a departure from the scalable business they have. I just can't imagine that that's a winning strategy. And then also it's like, guys, how thin are you to spread yourself? Like, you own Cursor, you have this like dogshit AI business, which is just like a NeoCloud reseller, Of chips you bought on a cyclical trade. You have Starship, great, which is needed for Starlink to be viable. So then you should be de-rating Starlink because if you do not get V3 going, then you actually have this viability issue with Starlink. So all of a sudden, I mean, you can kind of see why the credit could blow out because all of a sudden when people deconstruct this problem, they're like, what? What problem, how many problems like can we have at one company at this, at this level of breakneck speed? And you want to add a speculative terrestrial network to the equation? Come, come on. You're like, give me a break. That's like, that's too hard.
[00:18:43] Speaker A: Well, I think they could, they could go buy it, buy Dish's unfinished terrestrial network buildout.
[00:18:50] Speaker B: What have they accomplished though at Dish?
[00:18:53] Speaker A: Uh, I think they got to like 70% of pops in the US, but I, I think they could start there. But then the minute you do that, then the MNOs are certainly gonna view that very negatively. And then, yeah, the other thing is that Charter— you remember that Charter article from Bloomberg where it talked about how SpaceX and Charter had some initial discussions? Like, that article was floated by Starlink SpaceX people to scare the MNOs, because ultimately what you're what we talked about before is like, they, they Starlink to be credible, a credible threat to force the prisoner's dilemma. They need to be able to tell the street and tell, have the MNOs believe that they are willing to blow their brains out and build out a terrestrial network.
[00:19:35] Speaker B: Yeah.
[00:19:36] Speaker A: And by doing so, then you hopefully can force T-Mobile or someone to, to fold and then provide you with the MVNO, you know, the, the, the facilities that you need to compete. And then, you know, obviously the T-Mobile, whoever agrees to that, they'll say, well, we'll lose some customers, but hopefully we'll gain traffic because Starlink is gonna be a net share gainer from AT&T and Verizon. But yeah, to have credibility, you have to show that you are willing to build a terrestrial network. But then I think the MVNOs, or sorry, the MNOs, AT&T, Verizon, T-Mobile know that This is something very different. Like, and I think once, because of what's playing out here in the US, I think the Japanese, the Europeans, the other markets are gonna see, like, once Starlink competes with terrestrial operators, then no one's gonna wanna work with them, right? And so that's why I made this poll the other day of when does KDDI, you know, move over to AST SpaceMobile? 'Cause I think, I truly think it's just a matter of time.
[00:20:39] Speaker B: Yeah. Yeah, they're not that dumb. Oh, here's a question for you actually. And I don't know the answer to this, but if you take a guy who has an existing MVNO relationship, like Charter, for example, or Spectrum, or Spectrum is Charter, if I remember correctly. Are those MVNO deals transferable where they can either resell their MVNO capacity to SpaceX directly, or if SpaceX were to buy them, do those deals carry or are they, I'm assuming they change control provisions.
[00:21:08] Speaker A: Yeah, there has to be some change of control provisions, but I do think I think the cable guys have a pretty decent amount of leverage on those because remember, they contributed spectrum to, I think it was Verizon. Verizon was like the first MVNO that they did. So I'm not sure how those things are structured. I guess that's my homework next. But yeah, there certainly is going to be a change of control. It's not as if ATT could buy a cable company and then Verizon would have to honor the MVNO agreement.
[00:21:39] Speaker B: Yeah, I would assume that those things have triggers because I guess every deal I've ever seen has triggers. So yeah, that's kind of interesting. The SpaceX dynamic does seem like it's kind of unfolding in real time. And I'm just so surprised how hard this SpaceX dynamic hit this industry. It is kind of mind-blowing of how much oxygen it sucked out of the room and like what's it really gonna take to, to go back? Because, you know, I, I always find myself so surprised how we can regime shift back positive because like my usual mental state is I just kind of check out when the stock gets bloodied. I remember last year I was off doing like DAC trade. I don't know what I was doing. I feel like Tut had convinced me that I was like gonna be a crypto trader or something. And I remember you just keep, you kept telling me, you were like, Kook, ASTS is the next ASTS. And I'm like, oh, whatever. And then like last June, this thing just like ripped and I, I hadn't like mentally registered it. I was making money every day, but I just had like still been in my ignore phase.
[00:22:47] Speaker A: Yeah.
[00:22:47] Speaker B: And I was trying to remember like even this May when we just launched, like what are, what are these like subtle regime shifts that cause us to go? And what's gonna trigger the next one? 'Cause it's, it's always so vexing how this thing will move 70% in like 10 days. And if you can go back and figure out what those inflections are.
[00:23:13] Speaker A: Yeah.
[00:23:14] Speaker B: And is it really as simple as it, we usually believe it to be? You know, we have launch coming up. We've just cleared the decks in terms of— A capital raise. Yes. Anyone that was smart enough to see this coming now, Has it over.
[00:23:28] Speaker A: Has it over, and it's a good entry point for institutions. And then, yeah, you've got, if you think that the company wasn't buying SpaceX launches, they clearly are. And so, yeah, I think it's pretty clear sailing. Of course, macro, there's macro, and then if SpaceX continues to implode, then maybe that's not good.
[00:23:52] Speaker B: But That's one thing I do not, do you not believe, do you, do you not believe my Blue Origin speculation of there's a $10 billion capital raise they just announced? Like maybe that's the thing that kind of popped up all of a sudden where it's like, oh, we gotta like, we gotta get money now to be part of that.
[00:24:08] Speaker A: Yeah. Yeah. I mean, you, you want someone in your cap table, maybe they'll put in $100 or $150 million, uh, as an investment and, and a vote of confidence. Right.
[00:24:19] Speaker B: Um, and then, I mean, it'd be pretty cool if that's the equivalent of our like little sidecar Anthropic investment. And, you know, all of a sudden then Blue Origin becomes, you know, like FTX. That could happen.
[00:24:32] Speaker A: Yeah.
[00:24:32] Speaker B: Yeah, exactly.
[00:24:34] Speaker A: That's true.
[00:24:34] Speaker B: Like, I don't want to say FTX out loud because I, I don't want us to go into receivership. Um, so let's like, let's keep that idea out of the universe, but That would be kind of cool if— that's kind of what I was thinking is, you know, Blue Origin could very quickly be perceived as the hot company if New Glenn gets a cadence.
[00:24:59] Speaker A: Yeah, I think that's right.
[00:25:02] Speaker B: They have some cool stuff with like TerraWave. And I don't totally understand why Kuiper needs to be owned by Amazon. Maybe there's a—
[00:25:11] Speaker A: well, it's consumer facing, right?
[00:25:13] Speaker B: It's consumer facing, but that would obviously complete the Blue Origin clean story.
[00:25:19] Speaker A: Yeah.
[00:25:20] Speaker B: Is having that at Blue Origin, 'cause then people would know kind of exactly what they're dealing with. It's like, oh, this is the SpaceX we thought we were buying before they muddied the water with all the xAI stuff.
[00:25:31] Speaker A: Yeah.
[00:25:31] Speaker B: Oh, and then obviously folding in ASTS as sort of part of that. more formally really makes it pretty clean. So that's why I kind of thought, but then I could also see the money being used to recycle right back into the Rakuten ASTS joint venture. That made sense to me that they, you know, pop in, you know, whatever their pro rata would be. Yeah. I'd say that's a really good use, you know, and I guess they don't have to be mutually exclusive. They, you know, all of these things or none of these things could be true. Yeah.
[00:26:03] Speaker A: I mean, there, there could be a ULA transaction. And just to be clear, the company is not going to buy a launcher. But if, if Sierra Space or Blue Origin buys ULA, you know, Blue Origin is raising money. Maybe they're buying ULA. I don't know. But, um, could AST be part of the financial backing of a deal like that? Sure. I think that could make sense too.
[00:26:24] Speaker B: Yeah, that— because, you know, my first thing when I read that disclosure, I was like, okay, I get the vertical integration, but that would be in my book sort of an admission of failure if the end state was that they had to buy a launcher. That would validate the—
[00:26:42] Speaker A: I think the wording—
[00:26:44] Speaker B: Narrative of the Rocket Lab guys.
[00:26:45] Speaker A: I think the wording is off. I was actually, I'm going to send a post before I go to bed, but I'm going to try to parse out the wording to make it more clear. But I think there's a few sentences there that should be separate phrases. But the including got people off because they're like, oh, including launch or something like that. But I guess going back to your point about the changing in stock price, yeah, when sentiment's really bad and we hit, I think we had hit like 60 before, and then before you knew it, after just a few days, we were back at 90. The stock does that. Within a few days, you'll have You know, one-way movements. And so, I mean, for me, I was telling this, telling people in the space and telling you earlier that, yes, it's a bummer that we're down here at $58, but given everything that we know of that the market's not really reflecting, which is J.Leo, when the joint venture with T-Mobile becomes definitive, and then you start seeing some outward work with AST SpaceMobile, And then, you know, you've got all these things that are coming. Of course, you know, you've got launch. I don't know. I've never been more bullish.
[00:27:57] Speaker B: I mean, I just want to stunt on ETHOs, as I was telling you, like this guy, like Eric the Umpire, who I actually like some of his stuff from time to time. But when he did a little tweet of like, here's thread number 90 as to why the dilution is positive. It's like, dude, we're like, we're down. Okay. We're, Like, just don't rub it in, asshole.
[00:28:16] Speaker A: Yeah.
[00:28:16] Speaker B: And that other stupid video that like mocked you, like, I am viscerally vindictive in these moments where I just want this thing to go to $150 so I can do a trade parade and tell these people to go fuck themselves in the most serious way possible. So everyone has their own goals, but I am really embarrassed that the stock price is at $60. And I, and I really don't like to be embarrassed.
[00:28:40] Speaker A: Yeah.
[00:28:41] Speaker B: Uh, and the thing that I've 100% wrapped my entire being around, 'cause it, it's, it's like a true, it just sucks. And yeah, that's why I'm just trying to separate, like, I get it. You know, if I'm sitting in Andrew Johnson's seat, um, I, I, you know, I know none of those guys like are happy about it per se, 'cause they know they vaporized retail and that sucks 'cause they, I know they, they really like us. But at some level they can like us but still have to like shoot us in the face. And because it's the right, it's the right answer for the company.
[00:29:15] Speaker A: Yeah.
[00:29:15] Speaker B: Obviously, like, Abel eats shit when the stock goes down too.
[00:29:20] Speaker A: Yeah.
[00:29:21] Speaker B: Um, and I just, that's why I'm just stumped on the timing because the, the only things I hold true in this world, uh, related to this investment are the ethical direction of Abel Avalon. I, I know him to not be a shitbag, and that is the thing that is immutable. Yeah. And I know is true, is that he is a good dude. And I know this because I made my wife meet him because she can spot shitbags from a mile away. And she was like, this is a good— Oh, I'm kidding. No, she was like, yeah, I know exactly. So like, that's the one time where I was like, I got her. Um, but, but like, he, he's like legit an honest guy. Yeah. And Scott, say what you will, Scott can drive me up a wall. I don't think he really likes me, but he's, he's just a hardcore killer and whatever, you know, he's the hatchet man for Abel. Abel is gonna be the ethical, ethical compass of the company. I think, I think Scott's an ethical guy, but he's not, he's not the chairman of the company. It's like pretty clear who calls the shots around there and it's, it's AA.
[00:30:26] Speaker A: Yeah.
[00:30:27] Speaker B: And so it's like, I, I'm just wrestling with this idea of there's just not a chance in the world this guy did that prepaid forward knowing that he was going to then do a convert in everyone's face after authorizing Andrew Johnson to say that they weren't going to do a convert. There's just no way that that was being planned 2 to 3 weeks ago. I will. Bet my life on that, because that would be too close to securities misrepresentation. That they just they wouldn't do it. Yeah. I mean, I now have a psychological profile on these guys that is now five years long. They wouldn't do it. And so if you're starting to like constrain the logic here, it's like okay, Abel is a legit good human being, tough as shit. I would never work for him because he would run me over and kill me. And I know he drives these guys to the bone. So like, I'm not saying he's like easy to work for. Yeah. But he's, he's clearly a good dude. And he has like an extreme admiration for Space Mob because of what we've done to support the company. And then he has like a visceral fear of SEC compliance because of those comments. Like we've, we've seen in like the fricking videos where they're like, We will only wear black suits. We will never wear orange suits. Like it is so deep in this company to not, but dude, no, but like, do you remember those comments? Like they, they have such a, such an entrenched culture of making sure they never mislead people. Like that is a core tenet of this company is these, I think it's an engineering mentality. Like they understand rule-based decisions and in their minds correctly. There are rules around misleading investors, and they don't break rules, and they don't break laws of physics. They just don't do it. So then you're like, something must have happened in the past 2 weeks that caused them to grab capital. And what else do we know? We know that they shipped satellites. And so if we didn't have the shipment, you'd be like, oh shit, this went off the skids. There's like some delay. FM. 6 didn't work, or, you know, because we know in the past, like, Blue Walker 3 needed to be re-engineered. Like, the composites didn't work. Like, now we know that there were actually some of these things that happened, and they, they did have to go and grab capital in advance to, to rebudget. But I think what we know now with extreme certainty is that they've figured out the Constellation constipation. They just unfurled the goddamn thing.
[00:33:00] Speaker A: Yeah.
[00:33:01] Speaker B: So it's working. And so we know that this wasn't like a defensive, or I think we could, I don't think we know anything, but we can conclude that it's probably not a defensive raise that was the new information. Like they didn't get new defense information in the past 2 weeks. So then it's like, they must have gotten offense information or the third option is just literally, they can see that the convert market is getting a little bit shaky. And so they either had to like, do it because it's good to have money because it's really like nothing dilution in the grand scheme of things, or they had to take the bet that like cost of capital was just going to be kind of sloppy across the board for everyone, and then they'd have to check in in 4 months. And yeah, and so then it goes to like, where on the spectrum are we? The simple answer is the easy answer is like the, the exact same conversations I'm having with my friends in the credit markets of like, I don't know, like there's a lot of issuance coming. Like you should just like raise money if you can. That's the easy answer. And I'm kind of going to default to that's a good one. Yeah.
[00:34:04] Speaker A: And the other side, I think that, that, that explains part of maybe going down the convert path, but I think the, what changed as of 2 weeks ago is that some of these opportunities have come to fruition and they've become more real. Right. And so Like the expansion in Midland, and we all know that you don't go from 6 satellites a month to 10 to 12 unless it's for government purposes. And someone had actually on Twitter, someone had brought up a good point. It's like, oh, for some of these classified programs, you might actually need a completely separate building to build those things. I know.
[00:34:39] Speaker B: No, we know that. We know that. So Scott had said that. I remember because I was like walking around in New Jersey. I was listening to something. Oh, by the way, you wanna know like a good superstition that's occurring to me right now? Literally right in front of me. I'm gonna go, I'm gonna pull up. Oh shit, there's a cop right here. Fuck. Um, hold on. Like the exact wrong moment for me to just blow through the speed limit is when Waze tells me there's a cop right here. Ironically, to go see if this is a GT2 RS or a GT3 RS in front of me. But if it's a GT2, then that's like seeing a unicorn and that's good luck.
[00:35:12] Speaker A: Yeah.
[00:35:13] Speaker B: Um, so anyway, that's cool. But, um, but Scott had said this is that they were going to set up a new dedicated Micron facility. And I believe it was sort of like air brackets on, I think he just basically said Golden Dome. And this was back in September of last, of, uh, 2025. That I think for some of these applications, This is really a catsy question, but I think some of the, the, the non-communication use cases get to the point where they, they, I think they get so dedicated that I think you start to just use like a different micron, or at the very least there's some national security element to it because you can imagine how some of it might be classified. I'm kind of just making stuff up right now. This is kind of me just thinking out loud. But I do remember him very clearly saying, if we get some of these things, it's like an extra 240 satellites and that becomes its own production line.
[00:36:10] Speaker A: Yeah. So, so that, I think that's where, if you—
[00:36:15] Speaker B: That makes sense.
[00:36:15] Speaker A: So what we were talking about before where the, the $3 billion of cash that we have, which is now $2.7, 'cause obviously the company's spending money. Um, you, you never, for, especially for a company that's $25, $30 billion in market cap, you don't ever want to get below $1 billion. You don't run it, uh, like a startup. You actually, run it well capitalized so that you can pursue whatever opportunities that come up. And so then, you know, the— what changed from 2 weeks ago is all of a sudden we're seeing the— this, this movement around Midland about standing up a 400,000-square-foot production facility. I think, what was it, a few weeks ago when they had job postings for 500 open positions and we were all laughing that, how's that possible? Well, it's pretty wild. It's possible because it's happening. And so they feel very, I mean, they're very adamant about Golden Dome. And so the question is like, when will that get disclosed? When is it going to happen? But obviously the spending ahead of that is happening now. And so they must feel pretty good about it or have indications. And so I think that's probably part of what's changed since then. And then also the the, you know, whatever discussions I guess may have happened with SpaceX, they've decided to sign the dotted line and buy the launches. I think that's what changed too. But yeah, I mean, I think, I think the, yeah, it's, I think beyond that though, there's, there's also a spectrum. Like we, There's GRAIN management that came to a head and it got approved. And I think for most of us, we were surprised that it got approved so quickly. And so the company is working with GRAIN and GRAIN is going to select a vendor to light up that spectrum. And I could see something economically where we would have to contribute something in order to have the use of that spectrum. But then even thinking beyond that, you know, is there, like you were talking about before, Because of a potential settlement with the Department of War, maybe Legato spectrum comes available and there's some economics to shift around there. There's also, you know, it's weird to say, but ViaSat, if they see the writing on the wall, do they spin off that spectrum and maybe merge it with AST or there's a cash transaction there? I don't know. There's a whole host of ways this can go.
[00:38:42] Speaker B: That would be the one I'd get pretty excited about because Yeah. It would immediately answer the question of global S-band immediately. Grain and stuff like that, I don't know if that day one, if the market even cares. You know, it's like what I was saying is that, that I think, you know, is like digging out a riverbed. And so it's like, yeah, now the river can handle more volume, but people are still wondering, is there water?
[00:39:05] Speaker A: Yeah.
[00:39:05] Speaker B: And it doesn't, you know, so down the line, people look back and be like, whoa, shoot, how'd this become a $2,000 stock? And it's, well, yeah, we got a ton of spectrum we aggregated. Um, and so it would be a really useful building block. Getting global S-band, I could be overestimating this, but that would at least be very thematically simple because then that immediately guts up all the SpaceX bros who are like, well, these guys don't have global S-band and we viola, we would immediately at least—
[00:39:36] Speaker A: Oh, Kurt, you still there? I think we may have lost Cook. Are people still there? Give me a thumbs up if, if you guys can still hear me at least. Hello, Cook? Is everyone still there? Let me just check the chat. Can everyone still hear me? I think— okay, I think, I think people can hear me. Um, let me just text Cook and tell him that he may have got cut off. Tell him to rejoin anyway. Um, oh, there he is. I'm gonna add him back. Let's see here. Cookie there, I think. Okay, well, we're gonna have to wait for him. In regards to S-band, though, I guess I'll just continue the conversation. I don't think there might be something to do with Viasat, but only if it's cheap. But otherwise, I don't think the company should do something with Viasat because from what I understand, you know, we got this 10 by 10—
[00:41:02] Speaker B: Are you back?
[00:41:04] Speaker A: Okay. Yeah. So—
[00:41:05] Speaker B: I'm back.
[00:41:06] Speaker A: You're back up. I was gonna say before you dropped off, like, yeah, the S-band narrative would be easy with Viasat, but then on the flip side, the company is racking up S-band spectrum on its own, right? So we've got 10 by 10 megahertz in Brazil. It's probably gonna get 10 by 10 in Europe. And these are the markets that matter, right? Like you don't need the, you don't need all of it. And then, I believe the company is working on a bunch more other, you know, quite a few more other markets, like call it 10, where they truly believe they can get additional S-band spectrum for either free or virtually free. And so I'm not even sure you would need to go, like if you're, if you're able to go through regulators and get S-band and especially in these instances, like in Europe where it's, it's being taken away from higher and then basically being given to somebody who's actually going to use it. I don't know what the— I mean, I guess there's a time to market and the elegance of just doing some type of transaction with Viasat, but I think for the people who are invested in Viasat, we're speculating specifically around S-band, they might end up being disappointed because I'm not sure there's going to be value there.
[00:42:19] Speaker B: Yeah. As I kind of think about it, I hope we do not acquire one of these companies because unless it's just pure spectrum, then that's a different story. But, you know, when I think about like Rocket Lab and as complex as what they're doing and, and having some more intimate knowledge about their actual operations, the idea that they're just gonna be able to integrate Iridium, which is sort of its own shit show, legacy culture, like all this stuff. you know, good luck. I hope you have the operational chops to do complex integrations. You know, that, that I just wouldn't want to deal with that. This company, or, you know, ASTS already has kind of a weird work structure that's like very lean and aggressive. And so if you had, if you had to go buy ViaSat and then deal with all this other crap, you know, count me out. And so I've, I hope that the, the other way, as you described, is the way. And I think it's just a lot of blocking and tackling, which probably won't be very appreciated by the market as it happens, but ultimately is a big enabler of value creation that people will just kind of wonder like, oh, why was this company able to scale so well? This is amazing. It's like skating on water. And then, but in hindsight, all this blocking and tackling will have been the value creation mechanism.
[00:43:37] Speaker A: Yeah.
[00:43:38] Speaker B: But the The thing that like shocks us into a rebound, as I kind of think out loud, like it probably still just is as simple as launch.
[00:43:46] Speaker A: Yeah.
[00:43:47] Speaker B: And, you know, like we still haven't disproven the theory that our stock goes up with launch because we just shipped some satellites. People just, you know, got thrown a curveball with the convert. That's going to take a couple of days to clean up. And then this is going to arrive at the Cape and we're going to have launch. And then we're gonna probably have Batch 3 shipping pretty soon, I would imagine.
[00:44:08] Speaker A: Yeah.
[00:44:09] Speaker B: Um, and if they get an MLA with SpaceX to the tape, you know, or just some more launch certainty, even if they pay up, then, you know, we're, we're kind of back on track.
[00:44:20] Speaker A: Yeah.
[00:44:21] Speaker B: In terms of the, the thing, the thing that probably threw, destabilized us the most was the expectation re-rack with Blue Origin.
[00:44:29] Speaker A: Yeah.
[00:44:29] Speaker B: And that kind of will heal that damage. And take us back to the TAM story that we already had. Yeah. Because it's deliverability against the TAM was like the new question from June.
[00:44:44] Speaker A: Well, I think for SpaceX, we already have an MLA with them. It's just a matter of purchasing more options. And so I'm not sure that's going to be PR'd, but then maybe in an earnings call context, they might say, oh, we've purchased more. So instead of a handful, it'll be 2 handfuls or whatever it is. And then going back to the spectrum thing, yeah, maybe getting spectrum is not going to be reflected immediately, but I do think the market eventually will value those things because, as folks— I mentioned this in the space earlier, when we did the Legato transaction, people were up in arms. They were angry that we did that deal. They're like, why would you pay money for this?
[00:45:26] Speaker B: Really?
[00:45:26] Speaker A: Yeah, dude. Do you remember the initial reaction was—
[00:45:29] Speaker B: I love that. Remember?
[00:45:30] Speaker A: You did, but the initial reaction—
[00:45:32] Speaker B: I thought it was the best deal ever.
[00:45:33] Speaker A: The initial reaction from a lot of people were like, I thought we didn't need Spectrum. This is, this is like, why?
[00:45:38] Speaker B: Oh, yeah. Yeah. Pivot.
[00:45:39] Speaker A: Yeah. It's a pivot. And, and, and Tim Ferriss went on a field day. And so we paid economically equivalent equivalence of $2 billion for this thing. And now it's worth, what, $20 billion? And everybody else has followed suit. Like, SpaceX bought EchoStar, Amazon bought Globalstar, Rocket Lab bought Iridium. And so I think as we tack on additional spectrum, whether it's grain management or the Brazil, the Anatel 10x10 or the European 10x10 S-band, when all this stuff, eventually it will get reflected, right? Because it's going to take people time to understand what exactly we're amassing. But, but yeah, I think, I think the rerating will happen, but it'll be more gradual.
[00:46:27] Speaker B: You know what's funny is like sometimes I forget why I'm mad. And so like part of me is like, goddamn it, fuck you, Scott. Like, god, piece of shit, motherfucker. You know, I'm so mad. And as we're like talking about this, I'm like, why am I mad? You know, I'm mad at the stock price is really the answer.
[00:46:44] Speaker A: Yeah.
[00:46:44] Speaker B: And now I'm trying, I'm like, okay, I'm actually not that mad at the company because I kind of agree with it, but I want to be mad at something. And, um, I need something to direct. I mean, Tim is my answer is like, I direct my animosity toward him, but yeah, I think about it.
[00:46:58] Speaker A: Someone shared a, um, a thread with me. They're like, hey, what do you think about Tim Ferriss when he's saying about us buying Launch? And I saw the first tweet and he's like, well, first of all, you can't buy a launch company for $1 billion in cash. And then I just stopped. I was like, I can't read. the rest. It was like a very long thread. And it's like, we're not buying launch. We're not buying, nor do we have any desire to buy launch. We're not buying a launch company. We are going to buy launches, like, you know, rides to space. Oh my God.
[00:47:26] Speaker B: Well, yeah, because it isn't like, I don't think, I don't think there is a launch company that lacks capital because you think about like Relativity has the infinite money chip with Eric Schmidt. And then who else would it be? Like, MHI has all the money in the world. ISRO has all the money in the world. It would really just be, I think, participating in Blue Origin. But I don't, as I kind of think about that more, like, I don't know how I think about that if I'm a Bell. I already have that as a great partner. If I inject money, that starts to look a little bit to a cynic like bailing out a troubled partner, which I don't, I don't know that they are that, but you could start to Construct a narrative of that. So yeah, but buying a rocket launch company would be bad. I wouldn't, I wouldn't want that operational complexity bad. This is already complex enough. Simplify, simple, simple, simple. So, um, but I am excited. You know, this thing unfurled today, which is cool. And, you know, in hindsight, obviously, when they announced that, that's like a final de-risker in front of pricing a deal because Convert. people obviously wouldn't be like, so let me get this straight, you want us to wire you a billion dollars and you're gonna unfurl it tomorrow? How about you unfurl it now and we'll see how it goes? And so, you know, it's always, it's always kind of funny how that works out. And, um, you know.
[00:48:51] Speaker A: Yeah, we, well, and we shipped 3 satellites down to the Cape. So if, if the 3 that are in orbit that, by the way, like, I, I think we should all take this moment to recognize that this is the first time we've unfolded a composite Block 2 satellite. So this is a pretty big milestone.
[00:49:07] Speaker B: Yeah.
[00:49:07] Speaker A: Um, it's not a— it's not FM1 or FM2, obviously. It's, it's, it's a composite. And so that worked.
[00:49:13] Speaker B: Yeah, this is the first— and what was the first— yes, for— it was the first proof point toward the ultimate scalable model.
[00:49:21] Speaker A: Yeah.
[00:49:21] Speaker B: Everything else you could have said— I would always have that kind of demon lurking where it's like, ah, shit, like BW3 is a prototype. Oh my God. And then Block 1, you'd be like, what do you mean Block 1 isn't the satellite we're gonna be using? Like, why did you guys build these things? Because, like, what was it for? And then FM1, it's like, is this a, a military satellite? What is it? Another, another prototype that actually, that isn't actually the production run vehicle.
[00:49:46] Speaker A: Right. But as Captain says, that, that was the, that was the machine to build a machine. And it was most valuable.
[00:49:53] Speaker B: Yeah.
[00:49:54] Speaker A: But I think, yeah, so today you've got the first one, which the, you know, that was in a very short period of time, like from placement in orbit to unfolding. And so these things are gonna get faster. And then you've got 3 more that are about to go up. But yeah, yeah, it's, I think obviously the market's not gonna care as it churns through the stock, but Yeah, I think, I think someone was saying that they, they, they found it disgusting that these people were upset with us, but it's like, yeah, I get it. People are— I mean—
[00:50:29] Speaker B: I'm upset with you.
[00:50:31] Speaker A: You—
[00:50:31] Speaker B: I'm just kidding. I'm not upset with you. Um, no, I'm upset with myself. Uh—
[00:50:37] Speaker A: Yeah, you, you, you should have foresaw that the, the static fire of Blue Origin New Glenn, uh, that it was gonna explode the launch pad and take the program out for, for 6 to 8 months.
[00:50:50] Speaker B: Yeah, dude, you should know what you own. I mean, God, I'm like a walking hypocrite, but I don't know. Because I guess what I struggle with for myself is the juxtaposition of the duality of man where it's like part of me goes, okay, well, I wasn't going to sell. I don't really care. This is good for the long-term value creation, yet I am tying myself to short-term expectations because I tweet all day about this thing. So implicit in that is a view that this thing should go up, otherwise why am I tweeting about it? And it has just mind-blowing volatility. Like, you know, I've— I guess I've normalized violence in my life where, you know, I'm like, oh yeah, it's, you know, it's just down 56%. I just vaporized biblical amounts of money and like, oh, whatever. And it's just like, it's normalized something that's not normal. And then I wake up and I'm like, Oh my God, people think I'm like a paid pumper. And, and then, and then there's the rationalization, because then, you know, you and I, especially me, I go back and I'm like, well, okay, so actually now it all makes sense. And it's like, hey, jackass, why couldn't you all have done us a solid and like have predicted this so that, you know, we didn't like lose our life savings? Like, well, I didn't anticipate it, right? Um, and I'm, I'm thinking 3 to 5 years out. That's where I get undone, as you know. Um, but then it doesn't really change what I would've done. I mean, I would've, I would not have torqued up like I did in the past month where I definitely got fully torqued for September.
[00:52:20] Speaker A: Yeah.
[00:52:20] Speaker B: That turn— turns out to have been poorly timed. But, you know, now I gotta, I gotta work myself through that. Um, but I'm still optimistic that we could actually turn around by then? Because this happens fast.
[00:52:38] Speaker A: Well, I know in like previous times when the stock price is down, usually I'm pretty positive about things. And then when I talk to you and others or the people's chats, then it starts hitting me. It's like, oh, maybe I should be upset or depressed about this. But then the thing that I always remind myself is that it just takes a handful of days and the stock could be back to $90. Like, that's just the way that this stock works. you know, just as quickly as we derated. Like when we, I think when we recently hit high 60s and then we went all the way up to 90 or so just in a matter of a few days.
[00:53:15] Speaker B: Oh yeah, that happened. I remember it was like Reformed had like found some cosmic coincidence in his charts and then it was just like to the day he had predicted the bottom. And it's kind of funny because I know he had actually been pretty confused in the last week. And so, you know, now we know why, right? Like, nature wasn't making sense because nature was being disrupted by capital market activity. So it's always actually kind of funny in hindsight where it's like, yeah, dude, you know, you got thrown for a loop because there was a loop.
[00:53:47] Speaker A: Yeah.
[00:53:48] Speaker B: And now, you know, I'm just most surprised about how all the short covering happened because it is crazy to me. You would think, actually, ironically, If people had snussed out that there was going to be a raise, I mean, they did a really bad job of covering their shorts.
[00:54:05] Speaker A: Yeah. Well, I mean, yeah, but there always is this weird activity.
[00:54:11] Speaker B: They've returned all their stock with me. So they got, they're like, they're out. And so that's what made me believe actually, you know, as I was thinking about it, that maybe a lot of the short interest was part of this, that crazy Index Arm trade. that those Millennium guys made, because that would have been done with a reverse conversion.
[00:54:29] Speaker A: Yeah.
[00:54:30] Speaker B: Which is, you know, where you, you do the, um, you short the stock and you buy the synthetic long, um, and then you would, you would have that run off naturally without any price impact. That's the only thing I've kind of glommed onto is how do you explain all this. But, but then, you know, the question is, do then people pile back into this trade? Does space go back if we have a successful Starship launch? Or like, I don't even know what we're rooting for now. Like Starship successful is space equals exciting equals everything goes up, or Starship does not work and then people are like Starlink doomed, ASTS goes up. It's very unclear to me.
[00:55:14] Speaker A: Yeah.
[00:55:15] Speaker B: How, how all the, like what the correlations are right now. And, and, and like, do we, do we care is I guess the question. Um, 'cause all this kind of ultimately presupposes that this company's ultimately worth more. And that I know there can be like a fierce debate 'cause people are like, well, you know, it's worth $25 billion. That's not nothing.
[00:55:36] Speaker A: Yeah.
[00:55:37] Speaker B: And yeah, yeah, sure. You know, they, they have to, you know, the Kevin Mack article, which it's like, thanks. Like, dude, thanks for, thanks for chiming in, buster. We're all in our like self-help therapy. Last thing we need is like an actual professor to come in and be like, you're all dumb.
[00:55:50] Speaker A: Yeah.
[00:55:50] Speaker B: Here's my, Here's my Substack on why.
[00:55:53] Speaker A: Yeah, a company that has 90% gross margin should trade at 3 times revenue.
[00:55:57] Speaker B: Sometimes I just, I just want to like body check this guy. It's like, come on, leave us, leave us alone. Go back to your Wizard of Oz for now. Um, but you know, then I read that and everyone's like, yeah, dude, this isn't a 3x business. And, um, and certainly you don't have the signals of the company thinking that that's true.
[00:56:20] Speaker A: So, yeah, that's right.
[00:56:22] Speaker B: I mean, that's where I go. It's gonna—
[00:56:24] Speaker A: Yeah, they come, the company sees this insurmountable wall of opportunity and they're investing for it. And, you know, on the one hand, the consumer side, it's, you're going to have the largest wireless company in the world with probably several, at a minimum, several hundred million subscribers, but probably, you know, at, at at run rate scale, maybe a billion subscribers, which is unheard of. It's crazy. And then you've got the government business, right? And so, yeah, that's going to trade at 3 times revenue, which—
[00:56:54] Speaker B: No. Yeah, exactly.
[00:56:56] Speaker A: It's like, yeah, if, if gross margins were like a grocery store, then sure, it could trade at 3 times revenue. Yeah.
[00:57:04] Speaker B: Well, it's just the growth is going to be so crazy and that's just, you know, where the money's going to go is where, where's the growth? And then, you know, there's going to be an assumption the unit economics are there, and this is the more simple one to figure out the unit economics. In my view, you could start to very quickly understand that it's going to be okay. And so it's just the self-healing process. I mean, I don't know. So as I kind of think about it, I'm just frustrated that the stock went down because then The obvious, the wealth effect for me is pretty real. Glad I didn't quit my day job. You were telling me, you were like, you shouldn't work anymore. See, this is why I still have a lot of humility toward the volatility. Yeah.
[00:57:54] Speaker A: I guess. I mean, I think, yeah, you of anyone else, I guess you need the stability of going to work every day?
[00:58:04] Speaker B: I, I, I do. It didn't come up today or— how's your stupid stock going? You know, like, don't ask. I'm like, you see me here, you see me here late. You know how it's going. If I'm leaving at 4, you know how it's going. If I'm leaving later, you also know how it's going. Yeah. So, uh, speaking of how it's going, I just got home, so I got a super early morning tomorrow.
[00:58:29] Speaker A: Yeah, I gotta, I gotta hop too. I've gotta fly out tomorrow, but, um, well, it was good catching up and I hope this was, uh, interesting for people to hear how our conversations go. So, but yeah, thanks everyone for joining.
[00:58:42] Speaker B: Well, it's good, good for me cuz I was gonna call, I was gonna call Tanner cuz I was just gonna like cry it out to feel better. But now I do feel better. Um, the rage has left my body. I'm less full of vengeance. Um, so it's healthy.
[00:58:55] Speaker A: All right, man. We'll catch up again soon.
[00:58:57] Speaker B: Talk therapy. All right, see ya. Bye.
[00:59:12] Speaker A: Thanks for listening to the AST Space Mobile Podcast.
[00:59:16] Speaker B: If you enjoyed this episode and you'd like to help support the podcast, please share it with others, post about it on social media, or leave a rating and review.
[00:59:25] Speaker A: To catch all the latest news about AST SpaceMobile, make sure to subscribe. Thanks again, and I'll see you next time. Listen.
[00:59:39] Speaker B: Mmm, waffles.

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