Episode

Kook's Weekly - February 22 - Inventing the Market: The SpaceMobile Category Creator

2026-02-23 39:18 Kook

In this solo Kook's Weekly episode (Feb 22), Kook uses Abel Avellan's line "We did not follow a market, we invented one" as the organizing thesis for why AST SpaceMobile's category-creator status justifies his outsized personal position.

He walks through Deutsche Bank's new estimates (356 satellites by 2030, $12B revenue) and Scott Wisniewski's pushback that this undersells the opportunity, then covers technical/competitive differentiation versus SpaceX and the 1990s LEO failures.

He closes with launch-status updates on BlueBird 7 (FM2)/New Glenn 3, a reminder of the March 2 earnings date, and a case for why Golden Dome defense work is an underappreciated, diversifying value driver.

Key Takeaways

  • Kook (of the Kook Report) frames Abel Avellan's tweet "We did not follow a market, we invented one" as the core reason he holds an unusually large, concentrated AST SpaceMobile position, arguing that category creators durably capture market share, better margins, and better access to capital versus companies that end up a distant #2 or #3 in an existing market.
  • Deutsche Bank has raised its model to 356 satellites in orbit by 2030 (versus AST's current 243-satellite FCC authorization), which Kook interprets as the bank now assuming an additional satellite 'shell,' consistent with prior company commentary from Scott Wisniewski about pursuing more TAM beyond 243 satellites, including dedicated government shells.
  • Deutsche Bank estimates roughly $12 billion in AST SpaceMobile revenue by 2030; Kook says Scott Wisniewski has called that estimate 'weak sauce' and believes the real number could be in the tens of billions.
  • Kook rebuts bear comparisons (citing analysts 'Tim' and Bill Martin) that liken AST SpaceMobile to failed 1990s satellite-phone ventures like Iridium, arguing those were proprietary, closed, high-friction, expensive terminal-based systems, whereas AST's standards-based, low-friction system works on unmodified existing phones and should have near-infinite demand at low cost.
  • Kook explains AST's key technical differentiator versus SpaceX Direct to Cell: AST's base stations (E-node B) sit on the ground, with the satellite acting only as a 'remote radio head,' mirroring how terrestrial MNOs already scale cell towers — versus SpaceX's proprietary, space-based architecture — which Kook says is why AST's larger satellite arrays let it match or beat SpaceX's service with far fewer satellites.
  • AST SpaceMobile obtained its ITU network code, a step Kook says allows a normal phone to connect to AST's satellites as if roaming onto another carrier, validating the network at the international regulatory level.
  • BlueBird 7 (FM2) is encapsulated in the New Glenn 3 fairing awaiting a static fire and range clearance; Kook says NASA's Artemis mission appears unable to launch in March, which would clear the range for New Glenn 3 to launch possibly as soon as March 6, 2026.
  • AST SpaceMobile's next earnings report is scheduled for Monday, March 2, and Kook expects elevated options volatility heading into it.
  • Kook highlights Golden Dome-related government/defense work — including a recent contract award, an interview with 'Roy' confirming AST's solution will be part of Golden Dome, and rapid hiring tied to a new military production facility — as a diversifying, non-commercial path to value creation that puts AST in the same conversation as defense-tech names like Palantir and Anduril.
  • Kook says his personal investing 'edge' is patience and low trading frequency rather than having unique information, describing his approach as staying still and sticking with a long-term conviction position through volatility rather than overtrading.

Detailed Discussion10 topics

Category creation thesis and position sizing

5
  • Kook Untagged 00:00:25

    Kook says Abel Avellan's tweet "We did not follow a market, we invented one" reflects the first-principle thesis that guided both his investment decision and, separately, his position sizing in AST SpaceMobile; he distinguishes stock selection (being an analyst finding a big bet) from portfolio management (sizing), noting he is not naturally a portfolio manager.

  • Kook Speculation 00:00:25

    Kook states he has an 'imprudently large' personal position in ASTS, describing it as too big for one person to reasonably hold, and says he had moments where he felt he might lose the investment and had a 'mental breakdown' during the process before it started to look like a bet that will work.

  • Kook Speculation 00:00:25

    Kook explains that when his firm identifies a true category creator (versus a company chasing a mediocre market and destined to be a distant #3 player), he goes into 'risk-on' mode, because being a distant #2 or #3 leaves a company exposed ('toast, roadkill') in a downturn, whereas a category-creating #1 tends to build durable market share, better economics, better margins, and better capital access that compound into defensible moats. He cites his experience with Carvana versus also-ran online car sellers like Shift as an example of the distant-#2/#3 risk.

  • Kook Speculation 00:00:25

    Kook says he considers himself a 'one-hit wonder' investor rather than someone with consistently great pitch recognition (comparing himself to the band Spacehog and its one hit 'In the Meantime'), and says if this AST SpaceMobile bet works out, he doesn't plan to ever need to make another investment.

  • Kook Speculation 00:00:25

    Kook describes his investing 'edge' as having no informational edge at all — just patience, the willingness to sit on a nonlinear potential outcome, and the discipline not to overtrade or get 'sideswiped by volatility' in a market full of high-frequency traders and AI trading; he says he doesn't consider himself a contrarian since many people already believe in the AST SpaceMobile thesis, he just has to 'believe longer.'

BlueBird 7 (FM2) / New Glenn 3 launch status

4
  • Kook Confirmed 00:00:25

    Kook confirms BlueBird 7 (FM2) is encapsulated in the New Glenn 3 fairing, calling it 'really neat' to see it sealed up, and describes ongoing personal launch superstitions (ordering custom model rockets after successful launches on new rocket types), noting he has not yet ordered a New Glenn 3 model because that launch hasn't succeeded yet.

  • Kook Speculation 00:00:25

    Kook says the launch still requires a static fire of New Glenn 3 and range clearance; he notes NASA's Artemis mission appears unable to launch in March 2026, which would clear the launch range for New Glenn 3 to fly, possibly as soon as March 6 — describing this as something the community is closely monitoring rather than a confirmed date.

  • Kook Speculation 00:00:25

    Kook contrasts Artemis (which he characterizes as an 'ungodly expensive' public program with chronic delays and political ('pork') dynamics) with commercial launch programs like New Glenn, framing the range-clearing dynamic as an example of public versus private space initiative tradeoffs.

  • Kook Untagged 00:00:25

    Kook references a photo of Abel Avellan personally inspecting the FM2 satellite from a lift/cherry-picker, framing Avellan as a hands-on, owner-operator founder in the mold of Zuckerberg, Musk, or early Bezos, rather than a CEO primarily doing analyst roadshows.

Deutsche Bank estimates and revenue outlook

3
  • Kook Speculation 00:00:25

    Kook cites a new Deutsche Bank estimate of 356 satellites in orbit by 2030, more than AST's current 243-satellite authorization, which he interprets as the bank now modeling an additional satellite 'shell' — possibly informed by company conversations indicating AST is 'not done at 243' and sees more addressable market, consistent with prior comments from Scott Wisniewski about additional shells, including dedicated government shells.

  • Kook Disagreement 00:00:25

    Kook cites Deutsche Bank's estimate of approximately $12 billion in AST SpaceMobile revenue by 2030, and says Scott Wisniewski has characterized that figure as 'weak sauce,' believing the company is setting up for tens of billions of dollars in revenue instead.

  • Kook Speculation 00:00:25

    Kook argues that even at $10 billion in revenue with strong growth continuing from there, the stock should command a 'really great multiple,' and frames AST SpaceMobile as belonging in a 'next-generation cable asset' valuation category (alongside how he views SpaceX versus Charter) rather than the traditional satellite sector, which he calls comparatively weak (citing Iridium and Globalstar as poor comparables).

Rebutting the 1990s-satellite bear case

2
  • Kook Disagreement 00:00:25

    Kook pushes back on bear arguments — attributed to an analyst he calls 'Tim' and to 'Bill Martin,' who compared AST SpaceMobile to Iridium as an 'easy short' — arguing these comparisons rely on a false analogy to failed 1990s/2000s LEO satellite-phone companies, which were proprietary, closed, narrowband systems requiring expensive dedicated terminals (high friction), unlike AST's standards-based, low-friction system that works on existing unmodified phones.

  • Kook Speculation 00:00:25

    Kook says a frictionless, low-cost consumer experience should generate near-infinite demand versus Iridium-style high-friction, high-cost service, and argues that experienced hedge fund analysts covering many names sometimes default to superficial historical pattern-matching ('we've seen this movie before') rather than distinguishing true analogs from false ones.

Technical architecture and competitive differentiation vs. SpaceX

5
  • Kook Speculation 00:00:25

    Kook explains that AST SpaceMobile's base stations (E-node B) are located on the ground while the satellite functions only as a 'remote radio head' beaming signal to phones — mirroring how terrestrial MNOs scale their existing networks — whereas SpaceX's Direct to Cell architecture puts the base station functionality in space; he credits the account 'Interalia51' for clarifying this distinction, which he says is why AST's model can scale to meet demand the way terrestrial MNOs do.

  • Kook Speculation 00:00:25

    Kook argues satellite array size, not satellite count, is what matters competitively, saying AST's larger phased arrays let it match or exceed SpaceX's service quality with far fewer satellites than SpaceX's roughly 5,000-satellite Starlink/Direct to Cell constellation — illustrating this with an analogy comparing 5,000 small rafts to a single US Navy aircraft carrier.

  • Kook Company Guidance 00:00:25

    Kook highlights a recent AT&T tweet ('one step closer to the bet... the waffles pack a bigger array, which means we can achieve the same or better service with fewer satellites than competitors') as AT&T publicly drawing a contrast with SpaceX's approach.

  • Kook Speculation 00:00:25

    Kook notes AST's satellites carry optical inter-satellite links, and cites analysis from 'Katzi' suggesting FM1 is waiting for FM2 to reach orbit so the two can test operating in tandem via these inter-satellite links — capabilities Kook says will be useful for military applications and for interoperability between AST's LEO layer and MEO satellite layers (drawing an analogy to a highway/freeway system), referencing recent Amazon/Terawave commentary on similar MEO-LEO concepts.

  • Kook Speculation 00:00:25

    Kook references an interview that Anpanman posted (titled 'Hear About It from the Team') and highlights one point from it: that mobile network operators blocked SpaceX's satellite testing due to interference caused by SpaceX's wide side lobes and high adjacent-channel leakage ratio (described as spectrum 'spam,' per analysis from 'Katzi'), whereas those same MNOs are instead working with AST SpaceMobile.

Spectrum strategy and hiring

2
  • Kook Speculation 00:00:25

    Kook frames spectrum as the scarce upstream resource in the business (analogous to oil), with AST SpaceMobile increasingly acting as a spectrum aggregator rather than purely a 'downstream' operationalizing company, and notes AST continues to meet with the FCC about 2 GHz spectrum access, which he expects will expand over time across multiple countries and fuel monetization beyond earlier expectations.

  • Kook Speculation 00:00:25

    Kook points to a tweet (from 'Justin') showing a large volume of new AST SpaceMobile job postings as evidence the company is hiring aggressively to deliver on a large opportunity.

ITU network code and monetization outlook

3
  • Kook Confirmed 00:00:25

    Kook notes AST SpaceMobile obtained its ITU network code, which 'Interalia51' flagged as a key step toward letting a normal phone connect to AST satellites as if roaming onto another carrier — an international regulatory validation of the network that enables the seamless, invisible-to-the-user experience the company is targeting.

  • Kook Speculation 00:00:25

    Kook muses that because AST's service is designed to be seamless and invisible to the user (unlike an app-based competitor experience), there's a risk consumers won't consciously value it until it's taken away — comparing it to oxygen, where demand only becomes apparent once the service is missing.

  • Kook Company Guidance 00:00:25

    Kook cites Vodafone's IoT CEO stating that 2026 will be the year of satellite IoT, and argues IoT/B2B use cases will likely monetize fastest since they tolerate intermittent connectivity better than consumer voice/data, which he expects would be annoying with limited service windows.

Blue Origin launch cadence

2
  • Kook Speculation 00:00:25

    Kook notes Blue Origin is ramping its launch schedule, citing new STAs (Special Temporary Authorizations) appearing for New Glenn 5 and 6, and predicts Blue Origin's cadence could start rivaling SpaceX's within the next year, with AST SpaceMobile as Blue Origin's 'marquee client' — adding that this ramp should help drive down AST's launch cost curve.

  • Kook Speculation 00:00:25

    Kook says AST SpaceMobile has booked a substantial number of SpaceX launches as a fallback option but believes the company has deliberately not disclosed the exact launch allocation across vendors in order to preserve negotiating leverage.

Earnings date and trading volatility

1
  • Kook Confirmed 00:00:25

    Kook reminds listeners AST SpaceMobile's next earnings report is scheduled for Monday, March 2, and cautions options traders about elevated implied volatility heading into the print, advising against being short volatility ('selling vol') in the days before.

Golden Dome and defense positioning

4
  • Kook Speculation 00:00:25

    Kook recalls Scott Wisniewski's earlier tweet effectively confirming AST's involvement with Golden Dome (tied to a contract announcement that didn't explicitly say 'Golden Dome' but was widely understood as such), noting that news drove a stock rally that was subsequently given back as the broader market sold off, though he says AST held up relatively well given the macro backdrop.

  • Kook Confirmed 00:00:25

    Kook cites recent 'telltale' signals pointing to AST's involvement in space-based radar, and notes that in an interview with 'Roy,' it was stated specifically that AST SpaceMobile's solution will also be part of the Golden Dome concept.

  • Kook Speculation 00:00:25

    Kook says rapid hiring and new real estate suggest AST is ramping up a dedicated military production facility, which he says positions the company alongside defense-tech names like Palantir and Anduril, while noting AST is not solely reliant on government revenue the way pure defense contractors are — creating an additional, diversifying path to rapid value creation.

  • Kook Speculation 00:00:25

    Kook references ongoing geopolitical instability (events in Mexico, unrest in Cuba, tensions involving Iran) as background context for rising demand for next-generation military/defense equipment, suggesting the market has not fully appreciated how important AST SpaceMobile could become as part of that next generation of defense contractors.

Watch Items5

  • AST SpaceMobile Q4/FY earnings report

    Monday, March 2 Kook 00:00:25
  • New Glenn 3 launch of BlueBird 7 (FM2), pending static fire and range clearance after Artemis's expected March delay

    Possibly as soon as March 6 (Kook's estimate, not confirmed) Kook 00:00:25
  • Further Golden Dome-related contract or program news ('the next card')

    Unspecified / any given day, per Kook Kook 00:00:25
  • Blue Origin New Glenn 5 and 6 STAs / launch cadence ramp

    Over the next year (Kook's expectation) Kook 00:00:25
  • Rolling commercial monetization, starting with satellite IoT per Vodafone's IoT CEO

    2026 Kook 00:00:25

Open Questions4

  • If AST SpaceMobile's service is seamless and invisible to users (working like normal cell service with no app or user awareness), will consumers actually perceive its value enough to keep paying for it, or only realize its worth once it's taken away (Kook's 'oxygen' analogy)?

    Kook 00:00:25
  • How many satellite shells and how much additional TAM will AST SpaceMobile ultimately pursue beyond the current 243-satellite authorization, and how much of Deutsche Bank's 356-satellite estimate reflects real company guidance versus analyst modeling assumptions?

    Kook 00:00:25
  • Whether AST SpaceMobile's actual 2030 revenue will land closer to Deutsche Bank's ~$12 billion estimate or the 'tens of billions' figure Kook attributes to Scott Wisniewski's internal view.

    Kook 00:00:25
  • When the next material Golden Dome-related announcement or contract will come, given Kook says he has 'lost track a little bit of the timing of these things.'

    Kook 00:00:25

Raw Transcript

Show full transcript
[00:00:06] Speaker A: This is the AST SpaceMobile Podcast.
[00:00:09] Speaker B: It will just basically come to your phone and be seamless regardless of where you are. We don't want the user even to know that it's connected by satellite. Listen, the opportunity that we have is very, very, very large.
[00:00:25] Speaker C: Good evening, everyone. I'm sure there's a lot of us that are fully exhausted having woken up to watch hockey, which I frankly don't even really understand all the rules. So I'm sitting there going, what's a power play? But then, uh, it's exciting. Although I do see, uh, an opportunity for the NHL to offer dental benefits. That was kind of a— glaring need state for some of these players, but that's pretty cool that US won. I mean, everyone's really tired, so I'm exhausted and I can't wait to go to bed, but I am making amends for not having done the ASTS pushups. I knocked out 75 today and I'll keep a tracker so people know when I actually cross getting back on par, and that will probably be the bottom for the stock. But obviously I have to do the Spaces on Sunday, otherwise Apparently all the superstitions go, go to hell. What is not going to hell, but instead going up into the heavens is FM-2. And so it is happening. Seeing this thing sealed up in New Glenn 3 is really neat. The fairing is really cool. Another superstition I have is every time we have a successful launch on a new type of rocket, I order a custom model rocket made in Kazakhstan, and I got my PSLV over the weekend, which took 3 months to get through customs and everything because it's actually export controlled because it counts as a rocket, which, you know, you have a pretty cool model rocket when the Kazakhstan government stops it for inspection. So, but today I ordered my What did I order? My LVM-3 and my Falcon 9, but I did not order my New Glenn 3 because until that is a successful launch, I will not order it. So that's my new superstition. What I really liked about the tweet from Abel is this quote, we did not follow a market, we invented one. I know everyone saw this quote, but I do think it's important to stop and reflect on that because for me, this was always a very important first principle when thinking about not just the investment, but the sizing of the investment, because these are 2 separate concepts. I'm not a portfolio manager. Kind of almost got there, but that's not how I'm wired. I don't, I don't really like doing that. I like being an analyst and finding the big bet versus sitting around figuring out what my kurtosis is. And the sizing though is the portfolio management part. And so for me, I have an imprudently large position, so no one should do what I'm doing. But the reason why I'm doing what I'm doing, for those who are curious to know, Whether I'm, you know, there's some method to the madness is it's very difficult in life to find a company that invents a big market. Just because you're going to do it doesn't mean you're going to be successful. And so this investment in particular, I felt at times like I was going to lose my investment and had a mental breakdown in the process of it. Now it looks like a bet that will work, and it is a bet that is by all accounts too big for a person to have, but here we are. But the reason why it's so big for me, and only from my perspective, I'm not saying anyone should do what I'm doing and really reflect on what's right for you. But when you find a category creator in a big market, my personal perspective was to swing big. What I do for a living, I see a lot of ambitious companies trying to do this or that. More often than not, I see someone that's gunning into kind of like a meh market, and at best is going to try to be a 10th player. When I find, or when my firm finds something that is a category creator, as someone who has a significant amount of influence on what we do at my firm, when it a team member comes to me with something and I see a glimmer of category creation, I get into risk-on mode. That's where I really pound the table to get something across versus something that's like a me-too. I don't want to have my portfolio exposed to things that are going to be distant number 3s. And why is that? So a lot of times you'll have a company that's a distant number 3. In my mind right now, I'm thinking about the online car sales guys because I had been involved in Carvana. And then there was like Shift and there was another one. I forget what it was called, but that's kind of the point. You forget what it's called because it went away. And I'd actually been working with the CEO of this company. I already forgot its name, trying to do a merger with something else I owned. And the problem is being a distant number 2 or Distant number 3 means that if there's a downturn or a hiccup in the market, you're toast, you're roadkill. And if you're number 1 and you create a category, the probability of having a massive outsized market share that's durable is pretty high. And that's going to cause you to have more economies, better margins, better access to capital. These things that compound on themselves to start creating very defensible moats. And so long story short, Abel basically played to my heartstrings, if you will, of saying exactly what has guided my conviction in sticking with an investment like this in this size for this long is the invention of a market. So I've spoken a lot about this kind of in circles. I'll move on, but it is important to think about this concept and it is something where If people are wondering like, well, why does this guy at the Kook Report spend this much of his life writing this weekly newsletter, doing all these spaces, doing all these pushups, doing voodoo and incense and rituals and sacrifice of himself to this cause? Like, why isn't he doing that for Hims or for Palantir, whatever? And frankly, I wish I had owned Palantir. I don't know that I totally understand it, and that's one reason I don't own it. But, you know, sometimes you, you see the pitches in life that you see. I am no Ted Williams. I am not someone that is going to see the ball all of the time and hit all of the time. I am a one-hit wonder and I am okay with it. And so I kind of think about myself as the band, uh, Spacehog, which is one of my favorite songs of all time, is In the Meantime. And I think that's the only song that they really are known for. And so pretty ironic, ironic, and I think about it, that one of my favorite songs of all time is Spacehog, which is not so far, if you say it quickly enough, from Space Mob. And, you know, here I am now, and it's a one-hit wonder, and I think I am too, but I'm okay with it because If you have a hit, like in the meantime, you've made your contribution to culture and society, and you can feel like you've done something worthwhile. And that's, that's SpaceMobile for me because I, I see the ball clearly on a category creator and I put all my chips in it. And if it works, I won't ever have to make a new investment again. And that's kind of the plan. So this bet being right does entail timelines and actually launching a constellation. We cannot be a paper constellation for forever, unfortunately. And so what we have is Bluebird 7 FM2 encapsulated, and we're now waiting for a couple things. So they have to do a static fire of New Glenn 3, which will be quite exciting, and then you have to have the range clear. So what we learned over the weekend was that Artemis, which actually would have been a really cool rocket to see launch, has all sorts of And so I guess this goes back also to some of the issues with public initiatives versus private initiatives. Artemis, I think, is ungodly expensive. Not totally clear what need state it serves that isn't about to be served by New Glenn, for example. And it seems to always have some problems. And the history of this thing, it's a lot of pork. It's a lot of congressmen spreading it around. To constituencies, but in any respect, it Artemis appears to not be able to launch in March, which clears the range for New Glenn to go, which might be as soon as March sixth. We're all monitoring this very closely, and we'll all find out pretty soon. Would be great if they could do launch on like a Thursday or Friday, which would kind of clear calendars up. Hopefully a lot of us could go. And so, Abel, you know, you could say that there's a song by Ja Rule of I'm always on time. Abel has not listened to that song, but he gets it right. And so, so far in this company's history, literally nothing has been on time. But by space standards, it's okay. And so, es un poco tarde, pero perfecto. And so it is a little delayed, but they've gotten it right. And you can see this picture here of Abel on the cherry picker or whatever these things are called, inspecting the satellite. This is a hands-on executive. This is his satellite. This is a Mark Zuckerberg, Elon Musk, Bezos back in the day type of founder. And that's the important thing. He's not on the road doing analyst calls and analyst meetings. He's in the clean room inspecting, and that's the type of founder energy going back to it is category creator, but also then a true owner-operator. These are the types of things that give me the personal comfort to have the size investment that I have. Again, not suggesting anyone should emulate me, but that is what is supporting my decision to have a 90-vol personal net worth, which is certainly not good for my cortisol levels, which ironically I was trying to manage with peptides and then created an entirely new problem. So it just goes to show you, don't disrupt feng shui because then it all comes apart. But the things that are not coming apart are the investment merits of this. And so it's nice to see Deutsche Bank come out, really just stay out with their estimates because they have a model. I have a model, but it's nice to see how these things can tie up. But interestingly enough, Deutsche Bank has an estimate now of 356 satellites in orbit by 2030. So that's a lot of satellites, but importantly, that's more than 243 satellites last time I checked, which implies an additional shell. So why are they doing that? Who knows? The guy could have just, you know, dragged to the right the Excel formula, and that's just kind of what's popping out. But it's also probably coming from conversations with the company where they're explaining that, hey, we're not done at $243. There's more TAM out there. And in fact, we've actually heard Scott speak to this effect. So this is going to be very repetitive for anyone that's listen to me talk every weekend of my life, but they're going to have additional shells. There's going to be government shells, for example. And that is just very additive because the economics of any new shell are going to have to be supported by the economic use case, which just means that we have more NPV of future growth than many of us are probably contemplating. And we don't have to contemplate it at all. What you want to do as an investor is position yourself where the reinvestment or the growth opportunity just keeps expanding and you don't have to worry about it. You just need to know that a company is dynamic to pursue new markets and it has a flexible global infrastructure offering that allows for that. And that was something that was really interesting. To hear from one of my Discord friends back in the Discord days, and if if anyone knows Seal, he is a very interesting guy. I was kind of I don't know what I was doing. You know, late night pillow talk is basically what I was doing, and just kind of talking about like well how do we find the next trillion dollar companies? And he just kind of said well you need to find a U.S.-based global infrastructure provider. That's kind of. The commonality of the things that have been able to reach the trillion-dollar number. And I thought, well, first of all, that's a really good observation. And to a man with a hammer, the world looks like an ASTS investment, which then I could see how we too fit that mold, which is exciting. And so when we have that many satellites up, That's going to convert to revenue at some point, and so we need to translate. Thought it was pretty funny here, hearty har har. But translating the birds into tendies, so you could have a flock of chickens, but you could still be hungry unless you create a Chick-fil-A. So then you turn chickens into money, and so we're going to be converting birds into money. And it is again Deutsche Bank translating that and saying, "Well." We think they could have $12 billion in revenues by 2030, and they go through their estimates of that. Well, that's very exciting. Scott thinks that that's weak sauce right there. He thinks that they're setting the company up for tens of billions of dollars. Yeah, yeah, yeah. But hey, if we get to $10 billion, that's pretty exciting because if then, if there's then very strong growth at that point, which I we strongly suspect there would be, we should be trading at a really great multiple. And now we're getting a pretty good sense of where the market wants to value what I would call kind of a next generation cable asset. Because it kind of, I think SpaceX is really going to be in this bucket with Charter and these things, mostly because SpaceX is nuking Charter and things like that. But that's kind of the big money category where there's a lot of market cap. Versus the satellite sector, which is kind of crappy. Iridium and Globalstar are like kind of POSs. So it's gotta find its own industry home. And you can see that, you know, something's perceived as a high moat cable company that can trade at a really high valuation when there's growth attached to it. And, you know, again, it's nice to see Deutsche Bank really being creative and seeing where the puck could go. Meanwhile, the old guard has a very difficult time. Adjusting to new information. And I can hate to say that I sympathize with Tim, but I can sympathize with Tim. I've been there in my career where I was the quote unquote expert. And when you're an expert, which is a very dangerous thing to be, and you never want to be one, I pride myself now, kind of as I'm older, of not being the expert so that I can have more mental flexibility. But Tim, poor, poor Tim. Tim, his only real justification of his existence is to put himself out as the expert, the guy that has the history, the knowledge, and the gray hair, which he definitely has. And so he's really locked into this world in the '90s. So I too have studied. What has happened before? If you look at my pinned tweet, the DD, there's a whole section where I painstakingly went through all of the former Leo companies that were born and died in the '90s and early 2000s. So it's like when this guy the other day, Bill Martin, who is a nice enough guy actually, kind of said, well, this you know this is iridium. you know, easy short. It's like, come on, dude. You know, there's some real differences here and we won't go into iridium. It's pretty obvious. But Tim just makes his pitch on the failed TAM of the 1990s crop. But it's so easy to dissect his bear case because those were all proprietary closed systems. And we've been through this a million times on Spaces, so I won't belabor the point. But the whole point of ASTS is to be a standards-based, open, low-friction system. Low friction meaning it works on your existing device, so it can provide these services at an extremely low cost. And so a frictionless experience to a consumer at a low cost should have near infinite demand. Versus an Iridium product, narrowband with your own terminal, very expensive, is high friction. Well, that obviously didn't work. And it's been clear as day what Abel has been targeting. So there shouldn't be any mystery, but the experts still cling to this false analog. And it's a good pitch if you're a hedge fund, you've got 40 names to cover and you're like, oh yeah, okay, we've seen this movie before. All these Muppets, these retail guys, like, just don't understand. All these things went bankrupt. Like, oh, I bet these guys that weren't even born don't even know what iridium is. Well, yeah, we do. You know, actually, a lot of us are aware of what these things are and/or lived during them. And it's very important to be able to separate false analogs from true analogs. It's easy to do the 5-second elevator flyby and scare the crap out of someone of like, well, I've seen this before. And I actually get accused of this all the time in my day job. It's like I have actually seen a lot of things and so I'll look at a new name and say, well, here's actually what's going to happen here. And the 24-year-old pitching it to me that really wants to do this deal is always like, well, you're just not seeing how it's different this time, blah, blah, blah. So I get it. But you really do have to understand when a false analog is being pushed on you. That's where the variant view can come. And not that you have to be a contrarian. I've sort of realized being a contrarian is not necessary to make a lot of money investing. What's necessary is patience. That's my edge, is no edge. And I really become quite comfortable in knowing that I don't have any information that anyone else doesn't have, but what I have is all of the information that everyone has and the time to stew on it endlessly and the willingness to see a nonlinear potential outcome and stick around for it versus overtrade and get sideswiped by volatility. And that's an important thing to understand. So it's not that you have to be a contrarian on these and believe something other people don't, because a lot of people believe in the ESD space bubble. I don't feel like I'm a contrarian. I mean, look, there's 200 people on this call right now that believe in this company, so I don't have to believe more than anyone on this call. I just have to believe longer and for that thing to actually happen. That's what I've kind of realized. is my edge is slowing down my pace of play. In a world where you have high-frequency traders, you have these armies of people at Citadel and Millennium and Point72, you have AI trading now. I've always thought, you know, if I were ever sent into battle, I would just sort of hide in the grass and not move because moving is what draws attention and gets you blown up. Just sitting still, People don't people don't see you, and that's where I think you can have some real success investing is just stay still, and then you won't get shot. And the things that are actually definitely not standing still are the company. And so ASTS got its ITU network code, which I don't know the peculiarities of this, but. Interalia51, who's a very technical person, by the way, did flag this. And it was interesting. He said that it's a key step toward letting your normal phone connect to satellites as if it's just roaming onto another carrier. So it's really kind of the validation of the network by the ITU saying this is a real thing, and then your phone accepts it. And this goes to the seamlessness of the system, of your phone just does it and the user is unaware That something has happened, which is great. And so there's just continuity of service and then the consumer has service and they're, you could actually say like the problem with that is if it works so seamlessly, people are unaware that it's working. And so what is their propensity to pay for something sort of like oxygen? It's like, If you're breathing, you're enjoying the benefit of oxygen, but you're not sitting there going, well, oh, I really like that breath. I would be willing to pay $5 for each breath, which you probably would. But when oxygen is taken away from you, then you certainly understand the price of oxygen. You know, your marginal demand for oxygen goes to infinity real fast. And so it's kind of an interesting thing to think about is once people get AST SpaceMobile on their phone and just never have dead spots or all these things, Do they keep paying until they go, well, I'm going to cut back on something and they cut it and then they're like, God, you know, and get pissed off, kind of lack of oxygen and then realize they miss it. Be kind of interesting versus other networks that are much more active. You're sort of engaging with the user on like, hey, use this app to get connectivity. That's high friction, but then people know it and they're more aware of it. Something to think about. Clearly ASTS's solution is superior because it's seamless, but it is kind of one of these things where if it's invisible, you know, that could be luxury on one hand, but also then how do you remind people how great the service is on the other hand? But we will find out. High-class problem. So we also have some cool stuff coming out, which of these pictures, which shows of the launch adapter with FM2 in the fairing. And it's once again showing the optical inter-satellite links on these satellites, which is, which is pretty cool. And so Katzi had some analysis of this, but what we think is happening is FM1 is patiently waiting for its lightsaber partner to be shot up into orbit so they can have 2 of these satellites Working in tandem with each other and testing out these interlinks and these other capabilities, which are gonna be useful for the military and potentially useful for some of these galactic AI data centers, which we learned a lot more about with Terawave when Amazon announced that the other day. And so these systems start to look really interesting where the LEO layers start to work with the MEO layers, sort of like a Highway and freeway system together. The MEO satellites being like the big interstate systems, but then having to have a bunch of feeder roads to get stuff up and down. But we'll learn more about that. But FM2 is going to be great to help test capabilities, especially as it relates to the military and government birds. And what would a week be without AT&T chiming in, which is really great and appreciated. Just knowing our partners are so carefully monitoring the situation, as if we don't monitor the situation. We are definitely monitoring the situation. But the fact that AT&T is also monitoring the situation is pretty cool. And so they had a really neat tweet. One step closer to the bet. What are they saying here? One step closer to the bet A. And remember, the waffles pack a bigger array, which means we can achieve the same or better service with fewer satellites than competitors. Yeah, they're just casting shade on SpaceX. That's the key thing people seem to miss over and over again is people think, well, SpaceX has 5,000 satellites up, they must be ahead. Well, not really. And so size matters. It'd be like someone deploying 5,000 little rubber rafts and being like, we're going to take on the US Navy. The US Navy rolls up and the USS Abraham Abraham Lincoln and drops a nuclear weapon. You know, like that's size. Size can matter. And it's not just about size though. As part of this, one must always remember that it's the size, but the general architecture, which is what's great. It's scalable. This entire company was built for scale. And so the base stations are on Earth. That's the E node B, whereas SpaceX has that in space. And so again, Interalia 51, always, always the technical person, just clarifies for us all. This is what enables our, quote, cell towers in space. The base station is on the ground, which does the heavy computational work, and the satellite is the remote radio head that beams the signal to the cell phones. This is why ASTS will scale to meet demand because of the same process MNOs use with their terrestrial remote cell towers. And that is important. And this was all kind of brought upon by another patent that was filed. And so it is again, just realizing the company has replicated the terrestrial model in space versus the closed proprietary systems that are typically used in space, e.g., Iridium, Globalstar, and SpaceX. And that's the big difference is just the first principles being deployed here. And that I think will be very clear in the investment thesis when we get out, you know, maybe a year. But then, you know, the thing that I always find so interesting is how all these things work in tandem. And so The scalable architecture, the first principles thinking sets up for this massive revenue potential, but also as Katsy has said for years now, that spectrum will find the most efficient way to be utilized. And so too are many things in life like capital. So capital flows to the most efficient capital allocators. The best companies have the lowest cost of capital. Things like this. And so ASTS should end up being a spectrum aggregator, and this is really like an oil company getting oil concessions because they're the best operator. The upstream resource here is the spectrum. That's what's finite, and that's what ultimately is value. Everything else is around operationalizing that spectrum and commercializing it. But without the spectrum, nothing else matters. And so ASTS continues to meet with the FCC about 2 GHz spectrum access, and so broadening their purview. And I think this is gonna be a winner. I think we're gonna end up getting a lot more spectrum access over time in, in many countries. And so that's gonna be the fuel on monetization capture far beyond what any of us could have anticipated 2 or 3 years ago. So back when I, again, I kind of speak in oil terms, back when I thought of this as really a downstream company, kind of like a refinery is to the oil value chain, then all of a sudden our refinery bought the oil, which is the spectrum, and that continues to happen. And with that comes incredible opportunity. So what we're seeing here is the company delivering into the opportunity by hiring. And so people have done a great job here. We have a tweet from Justin just showing how many of these jobs are being posted. They're hiring like crazy. You don't do that unless you're delivering into a big boy opportunity, which I believe we are. So all of the pieces really triangulate quite well here. never mind the stock price, which is like blood and guts in the past couple weeks. But you have to look at the fundamentals to figure out again what's happening in the long term and use— well, I'm not telling anyone to do anything, but I am using my patience as my strategic weapon because February will be over pretty soon. Ides of March will be over pretty soon, and then a lot of really exciting things start to flip. Nothing really will have changed on the fundamentals of the company, but Just simply accepting and internalizing what's happening here and keeping a long-term perspective. And I'm pretty sure that's going to work out really well for me by again just sitting still. The things that we're going to see happen is the initial monetization will become clear. The telltales keep coming out. So Vodafone's IoT CEO explains why 2026 is going to be the year of satellite IoT. So this is what I believe will monetize the fastest because you can have very valuable services provided via intermittent service versus, it'd be pretty annoying if your phone only had voice service for 15 minutes per hour. And you, I mean, yeah, you'd rather have 15 minutes than zero, but that's still going to be an annoying thing versus the IoT market. And a lot of these B2B markets will be just fine with that. And I think we could start to have, you know, some eyes open in terms of, well, hold on, where's all this revenue coming from? And this isn't about dead spots. You know, this is an entirely new beast. So I'm of the view we're going to have this rolling monetization happening, and that will be pretty exciting. I highly recommend everyone read this interview that Anpanman posted. The tweet that I have it in is called Hear About It from the Team. You have to read this interview. It's just, it doesn't tell you anything that you probably don't know, but just hearing it cohesively from another company member just lets you know why we're on the right path. One really interesting point was the MNOs blocked SpaceX because of the interference. And so SpaceX, when they were testing it, just screwed up all the spectrum because of the very wide side lobes and the high adjacent channel leakage ratio, which is just basically the spam, as Katzi has kind of dumbed down for all of us what's really happening there. And that's interesting. You know, it's really the MNOs are saying we're not working with those guys and they're working with ASTS. And it's a great interview. And I remember I was reading it last week and just felt, I mean, as if I need to be more bullish, but just felt very good. about the research that I've done with all of you and the conclusions I've had and really the ownership I have of this company. It just made me feel really good as an owner. And the other thing that is going to be, I think, a real nice surprise this year is just how aggressive Blue Origin is. And so Blue Origin is really ramping up its schedule. We're starting to see STAs for New Glenn 5 and 6. So if you kind of, again, think about what's happening in the next year, I think it's very possible we have a Blue Origin that's starting to look like it's breathing fire down SpaceX, and we're the marquee client there. So we have a lot of launches booked with SpaceX, in my opinion, and I don't believe the company has really clarified that to the extent the market might want. But that's for negotiating leverage. It really doesn't benefit ASTS at all to tell exactly how many launches they've scheduled with each vendor to keep everyone kind of in balance. And so we have a lot of SpaceX launches, which is great because that's the fallback. But I think this Blue Origin ramp is going to drive down our cost curve quite a lot. And that is good. And we are really the the shiny object of that program. And so that aggressive schedule is what we want to see. And again, I, you know, really fingers crossed I'm going to be doing all the Superstitions at the same time for a New Glenn 3 launch. Uh, just hopefully that will be a successful 3rd trip. So we're going to learn a lot more, uh, next Monday, March 2nd. So there's earnings. So for those of you who partake in trading volatility, just FYI, I'd be careful trading or really selling vol for the next week because vol is going to be very elevated. You can find yourself sort of trapped, just a little lesson. And so there's going to be some real vega, probably. It already— you can see it in the volatility curve, but it might get a little bit more pronounced as people tee up for it. So just don't get caught sideways. And Don't forget about Golden Dome. And so, you know, I'm just thinking about, well, I was thinking earlier today just of when Scott put out that tweet just saying, hey, we're Golden Dome, because we got that contract that didn't specifically say Golden Dome, even though we all knew what it was. You know, we, we don't know when the next card is going to flip on Golden Dome. That drove a lot of excitement in the stock, as well it should. And Frank, I hate saying frankly, uh, it was all given back. You know, the markets turned to crap overall, so we've actually, you know, held up pretty well, all things considered, considering the macro. But we can have Golden Dome reinvigorate the narrative on any given day. And so I have lost track a little bit of the timing of these things, but the telltales we've picked up on over the past couple weeks have been very consistent on space-based radar. And then in the interview with Roy, he says specifically ASTS solution will also be part of the Golden Dome concept. Well, we know, but it's nice to hear that again. And also just think about the rapid pace of the hiring. We've seen some new real estate pop up. By all accounts, it looks like the company is ramping up for a specific military production facility, which is a game changer and puts us right in the same camp as the Palantirs and the Andurils of the world, except we're not totally reliant on the government. That's just this extra path, and it's a cool extra path to have because it could really result in quite a lot of rapid value creation, especially as the world keeps heating up. And so what just happened in Mexico is honestly just wild to me, but totally validates why I'm a risk-averse guy and don't go to places that can all of a sudden turn into war zones. But then you have Cuba who's like kind of silently being collapsed, all this stuff going on in Iran. You know, the world is a hot place right now and I hope it cools down, but the need state for all of this next generation military equipment is only going up. And I don't think that the market has totally glommed on to how important ASTS is going to be as part of that next generation of defense contractors. So that's what I have for this week. Thank you everyone for joining and looking forward to seeing, as always, all the research people put out so I can aggregate it. so that we can convene on Sunday nights. Have a great evening, and thank you very much for joining.
[00:38:04] Speaker A: Thanks for listening to the AST SpaceMobile Podcast. If you enjoyed this episode and you'd like to help support the podcast, please share it with others, post about it on social media, or leave a rating and review. To catch all the latest news about AST SpaceMobile, make sure to subscribe. Thanks again, and I'll see you next time.
[00:38:26] Speaker B: We're doing something very, very big. Connecting with this technology, we can really affect a billion lives. AST SpaceMobile is the only company that has proven technology to deliver cellular broadband connectivity directly from space to the everyday smartphone. People will just basically turn on their phone and be seamless for the regardless of where you are, we don't want the user even to know that it's connected by satellite. Our role is to bring this into reality, always in partnership with the NMOs.
[00:39:07] Speaker A: Listen.
[00:39:11] Speaker B: Mmm, waffles.

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