Episode
Anpanman - Post Convert Offering and Other Stuff Discussion
Anpanman hosts a solo X Spaces recap the day after AST SpaceMobile priced an upsized $1 billion (potentially $1.15 billion with overallotment) convertible note offering. He walks through the deal's terms, dilution math, and his read on why the company raised so much capital.
He also covers a cluster of same-day news: ISRO confirming a first-week-of-December launch window for BlueBird 6, the FCC SCS comment period closing with no objections, and a B. Riley price-target upgrade. He runs through AT&T/T-Mobile earnings commentary on direct-to-device, a rough Iridium earnings call, and an Information article on a rumored Apple-Starlink spectrum arrangement.
His headline conclusion is strongly bullish: the convert is minimally dilutive (~2.8%), and it gives AST over $3 billion of total liquidity to negotiate from a position of strength with MNOs and accelerate the full 90-satellite constellation.
He also sees the day's news flow marking a turning point where legacy satellite players like Iridium are visibly struggling against the AST/Starlink direct-to-device threat.
Key Takeaways
- AST SpaceMobile upsized its convertible note offering from an originally planned $850 million to $1 billion, with a $150 million overallotment option the underwriting banks can exercise, for a total potential raise of $1.15 billion.
- Following the offering, AST SpaceMobile had approximately $2.65 billion of pro forma cash as of September 30, 2025, plus roughly $530 million remaining on its $800 million at-the-market (ATM) equity program, giving total potential liquidity of over $3 billion.
- The new convertible notes carry a 22.5% conversion premium (conversion price of $96.30/share) and a 10-year maturity, which Anpanman called unusual since convertible debt typically has a 5-to-7-year maturity; he recalled the coupon as approximately 2.25% but flagged that figure as needing verification.
- Anpanman calculates maximum dilution from the $1 billion tranche (excluding the overallotment) at about 10.38 million shares, roughly 2.8% of the 364 million shares outstanding, only if the stock trades above $96.30 within the 10-year term.
- AST SpaceMobile changed its stated use-of-proceeds language to reference 'adding incremental strategic markets,' which Anpanman interprets as a signal the company may target the full roughly 90-satellite constellation for global coverage (versus the 45-60 satellites needed for its primary markets) and/or fund upcoming military contract awards.
- An ISRO official confirmed that BlueBird 6 (FM1), currently being integrated in India, is now expected to launch during the first week of December 2025, earlier than some outside estimates of late December or January.
- The comment period for AST SpaceMobile's FCC Supplemental Coverage from Space (SCS) license-modification application (covering up to 248 satellites) closed on October 23, 2025, with no objections filed as of the episode, which Anpanman views as bullish ahead of expected FCC approval this quarter.
- Investment bank B. Riley raised its AST SpaceMobile price target to $95 from $60 on October 23, 2025, citing the capital raise as funding an accelerated buildout of a full 90-satellite global constellation.
- Iridium's stock fell after its Q3 2025 earnings call, on which CEO Matt Desch fielded competitive questions about AST SpaceMobile and Starlink; Iridium pulled its long-term (through-2030) financial guidance, citing a changing competitive landscape, and Desch moved up his prior 'not until 2035' direct-to-device competitive timeline to 2029.
- Lynk Global, an early direct-to-device satellite operator, announced a merger with Omnispace (backed by SES) earlier in the week; Anpanman characterized it skeptically as a 'marriage of desperation' between two sub-scale spectrum holders lacking the capital or constellation to compete.
- AT&T's John Stanky spoke favorably about AST SpaceMobile on AT&T's earnings call, while T-Mobile claimed on its own call to have 'co-invented' direct-to-device with SpaceX, a claim Anpanman dismissed as marketing spin.
- An Information article on a rumored Apple-Starlink spectrum arrangement also carried headlines about Globalstar possibly selling itself above $10 billion; Anpanman read the underlying article as actually bearish for Globalstar investors and noted AST SpaceMobile was not mentioned in the piece at all.
Detailed Discussion9 topics
Convertible note offering: size, terms, and dilution
10
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The company upsized what was originally an $850 million convertible note offering to $1 billion, with a $150 million overallotment option the banks can exercise, bringing the total to $1.15 billion — a huge jump versus where the company stood back in May 2024.
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As of September 30, 2025, the company has about $2.65 billion of pro forma cash, which Anpanman estimates is roughly 3 to 4 times the entire market cap AST SpaceMobile had a little under a year and a half earlier.
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The convert's conversion premium is 22.5%, meaning the bond converts to equity at $96.30/share or higher.
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The notes carry a 10-year maturity, which Anpanman says is unusual — typical convertible debt deals run 5 to 7 years — and he reads the long maturity as a sign of how credit investors view the company's prospects.
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He recalled the coupon as approximately 2.25% but explicitly flagged he'd need to double check that figure.
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Convertible arbitrage investors typically buy the bond and short the underlying stock to hedge delta exposure tied to the embedded warrant, then trade around that delta over time (shorting as the stock rises, buying back as it falls) to monetize volatility — part of why convertible debt is attractive for high-volatility names like AST, since it lets the company get a lower interest rate and higher conversion premium (i.e., lower dilution) than a straight equity raise.
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Doing the math on the $1 billion tranche (ignoring the overallotment): dividing $1 billion by the $96.30 conversion price gives about 10.38 million shares of potential dilution; against 364 million total shares outstanding, that's roughly 2.8% dilution for $1 billion raised, which he called 'insane' given the entire company was worth about $700 million in market cap as recently as May 2024.
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There was strong demand for the deal from both long-only fundamental credit investors and convertible arbitrageurs, with arb investors hedging a portion of their allotment via short sales in the days following pricing, meaning some short-term stock 'digestion' from hedging flows over roughly the next 3 days.
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Why no capped call this time (unlike the prior convert, where the capped call raised the effective conversion price to about $120): Anpanman's guess is the company wanted the full proceeds and/or derivatives dealers may not have had capacity for another large capped-call transaction with one already outstanding.
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The deal was marketed over 2 days: select convertible-bond investors were brought 'over the wall' (restricted from trading on material non-public information) during marketing, then the deal priced the evening it was announced; the offering was not visible on Bloomberg to the public before announcement, and only restricted investors could trade only after announcement, per standard securities-law rules against trading on MNPI.
Why raise this much capital now — use of proceeds and strategic implications
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The company changed its use-of-proceeds language to mention adding 'incremental strategic markets,' which Anpanman reads as a signal AST may now target the full ~90-satellite constellation for full global coverage rather than the 45-to-60-satellite build sufficient for its primary/most commercially attractive markets.
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He also speculates part of the raise is earmarked for upcoming military/government contract awards he expects the company to win, though the government shutdown means news on those awards is likely delayed until the government reopens (8 awards received so far; a Golden Dome-related award would be the 9th).
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He draws a parallel to the January 2024 ~$100 million equity raise, which bridged the company (alongside the AT&T/Google/Vodafone strategic investment) to the later Verizon partnership announcement — a raise-then-deliver pattern he sees repeating here.
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He cites the October 7, 2025 $800 million ATM program as a recent example: the stock initially traded down on the ATM news, but the next day the company announced its definitive commercial agreement with Verizon, which sent the stock up sharply.
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With over $3 billion of total liquidity (roughly $2.6 billion cash plus about $530 million remaining on the ATM), Anpanman argues the company no longer needs strategic investment or prepayments from MNOs to fund itself, which shifts negotiating leverage in AST's favor — MNOs wanting priority service after AT&T, Verizon, Vodafone and Rakuten will need to offer better commercial splits (he floats a hypothetical 60% AST / 40% MNO split) and larger prepayments.
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He speculates Saudi Telecom, Zain, or Mobily (Saudi MNOs) could be candidates for a new definitive commercial agreement given the pivot toward incremental markets, though this is explicitly framed as speculation.
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Now that the company is a $26-27 billion market cap business, Anpanman argues it no longer makes sense to run with a bare-minimum cash balance of $200-300 million as in the 2024 'lean years'; building a multi-billion-dollar war chest lets the company act offensively — procuring materials faster, adding production shifts, procuring additional factory space — and gives MNOs/regulators/governments confidence the company can reach the finish line.
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He notes founder/CEO Abel Avellan owns over 70 million Class C supervoting shares, draws zero salary, and receives no stock awards or bonuses, so every dilutive raise also dilutes him personally — evidence, in Anpanman's view, that raises are done for legitimate purposes.
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Prior quarter's guidance hinted the company could scale satellite production beyond 6/month to as high as 12/month, with a suggestion the military may want some of its own dedicated Bluebirds, which could be part of the rationale for higher production capacity.
Near-term catalyst calendar
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An ISRO official confirmed today that BlueBird 6 (FM1), currently in India being integrated, is expected to launch the first week of December — earlier than some outside estimates (including from media outlets doing backwards math) of late December or early January.
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FM2 is in final testing and, per prior company guidance, was expected to ship to Florida before the end of October; assuming about 30 days of integration/prep after arrival, Anpanman estimates a launch window of late November to early December for FM2, meaning FM2 and BB6 could launch around the same time or FM2 could even go first.
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He cites Bloomberg's projection of the next quarterly earnings call landing around November 14, and expects it to be 'jam-packed' with updates on how convert/ATM proceeds are being deployed, military awards, and additional MNO partners.
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The public comment period for AST SpaceMobile's FCC Supplemental Coverage from Space (SCS) application (covering the expanded up-to-248-satellite constellation) ended today (October 23, 2025); as far as Anpanman can tell no comments/objections have been filed, which he views as bullish, possibly indicating competitors see approval as a foregone conclusion.
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He expects the FCC — which he describes as moving at 'warp speed' under its current focus on space competitiveness versus China — to approve the US commercial SCS application within this quarter, though he's unsure of the exact timeline from comment-period close to decision.
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B. Riley raised its AST SpaceMobile price target to $95 from $60 today, reasoning the capital raise (mildly dilutive, cheap financing) is meant to accelerate deployment of the full 90-satellite global constellation rather than just the 60-satellite key-market build.
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This quarter (Q3 2025) is expected to be the first of two quarters this year (Q3 and Q4) where the company generates material revenue against its previously guided $50-75 million for the second half of 2025; Anpanman speculates the company deliberately withheld a pre-announced revenue figure this time (unlike some past capital raises) to save it as a highlight for the earnings call.
AT&T and T-Mobile earnings commentary on direct-to-device
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On AT&T's earnings call, CEO John Stankey was asked about direct-to-device and was complimentary of AST SpaceMobile and how the service will help AT&T better serve customers.
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On T-Mobile's call the same day, executives claimed T-Mobile 'co-invented' direct-to-device with SpaceX — a claim Anpanman characterized as marketing spin, noting T-Mobile/Starlink were first to a commercial service but with, in his view, an inferior underlying technology architecture.
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He argues direct-to-device is becoming unavoidable mindshare for institutional/TMT investors, with increasingly detailed questions on recent MNO earnings calls about competitiveness with terrestrial networks, customer satisfaction, adoption, and ARPU impact.
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His framing: it will be a duopoly market between AST SpaceMobile and Starlink serving roughly 6 billion global subscribers; AST has the superior architecture/technology, giving it a strong position even without capturing the entire market.
Iridium's Q3 earnings call and competitive pressure
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Iridium's stock fell today partly on comments made during its Q3 earnings call; the stock has fallen from the 30s to about 18 as AST SpaceMobile and Starlink (especially after Starlink's EchoStar spectrum acquisition) have advanced.
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Iridium is expected to generate around $300 million of free cash flow this year but has only about 1 to 1.1 million global subscribers at premium pricing; the company took on significant debt to fund large dividends and share buybacks (including buybacks executed at higher prices in the 20s-30s versus today's ~$18), and previously touted a 'CapEx holiday' of not needing to invest in new satellites.
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On the call, analysts pressed Iridium on potential partnerships or a sale; management did not explicitly say the company is for sale but indicated it would consider a 'shareholder maximizing alternative.'
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Iridium pulled its long-term (through-2030) financial guidance, explicitly citing a changing competitive landscape — a notable admission from a company that historically downplayed direct-to-device as a threat.
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CEO Matt Desch previously said direct-to-device competition wasn't expected until 2035, but on today's call moved that timeline up to 2029, describing satellite direct-to-device as a growing competitive concern.
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Iridium holds globally harmonized L-band spectrum, only 8 MHz wide, adjacent to Ligado's spectrum; Anpanman notes a theoretical synergy where AST (already using Ligado spectrum on its Block 2 mid-band Bluebirds) could potentially combine with Iridium's spectrum across the guard band between the two allocations, though this is speculative.
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He believes AST has no near-term need to pursue Iridium given AST's own large opportunity set, capital, MNO relationships, and spectrum access, but could imagine a future 'sweetheart deal' where a buyer (AST or Starlink) manages Iridium for cash flow and eventually folds in its spectrum once their own constellations are ready; he also floated the idea that Iridium retains strategic value to the US government for communications redundancy/resiliency in contested/electronic-warfare environments.
Apple/Starlink/Globalstar article and AST's own spectrum optionality
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An Information article suggested Apple and Starlink may work together, with Apple integrating Starlink's EchoStar frequencies into iPhone hardware and Starlink's next-generation satellites incorporating Globalstar spectrum into their chips; Anpanman notes AST SpaceMobile was not mentioned anywhere in the article.
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Headlines from the same article suggested Globalstar could be sold for over $10 billion, but Anpanman read the underlying article as actually bearish for Globalstar, noting it describes Apple as dissatisfied with the relationship; he cautions Globalstar shareholders that Apple effectively controls the company (owning about 85% of Globalstar's satellite capacity) and would likely have right of first refusal on any sale.
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He views Apple integrating multiple satellite partners' frequencies (Starlink, Ligado, EchoStar, Viasat via FCC filings on NTN standards) as standard industry practice to shape 5G non-terrestrial network standards, not evidence of any exclusive Apple-Starlink arrangement.
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He states that AST publicly confirmed (referenced on a recent earnings call, when Abel was asked about Ligado) that AST incorporated Ligado spectrum into its AST5000 ASIC years ago during chip development, so the Block 2 mid-band Bluebirds can light up that spectrum quickly once FCC approval is granted.
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He personally guesses (without confirmation) that Globalstar spectrum is also incorporated into AST's ASICs, reasoning it's low-cost optionality in case a future partnership with Apple/Globalstar emerges; he frames this explicitly as his own guess, not a confirmed fact.
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He describes AST's low-band Bluebirds as covering roughly 600-900 MHz, and the upcoming mid-band Bluebirds as covering roughly 1.5 GHz up to as high as 2.6 GHz based on what's been publicly disclosed — a range that would encompass Globalstar, Ligado, and EchoStar spectrum, and potentially AWS-3 spectrum if Verizon acquires it.
Lynk/Omnispace merger
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Earlier in the week, Lynk (an early direct-to-device player using low-band spectrum) announced a merger with Omnispace (which holds S-band spectrum allocations in various locations), backed by SES, a well-capitalized European satellite communications company; Anpanman joked it's like 'two garbage trucks colliding.'
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The two companies' spectrum/technology aren't currently compatible; Lynk would need to re-architect its satellites to use Omnispace's spectrum, requiring further capital investment, and Lynk claims roughly 50 MNO partners today, though Anpanman characterizes most as small operators of little consequence.
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He speculates Omnispace had been unsuccessfully shopping itself for sale because spectrum rights without a funded buildout plan carry little value with regulators, and guesses the merger is partly meant to help both companies meet spectrum buildout requirements and buy time ahead of license renewals.
Coverage, capacity, and the terrestrial-satellite handover pitch
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He cautions that MNO CEOs' public comments about direct-to-device (e.g., calling it useful for 'filling gaps' in dead zones) should be read with context, since admitting broader need would mean conceding their terrestrial network has coverage gaps; he cites Verizon's stated 96% coverage as referring to population coverage, not landmass, estimating actual US landmass coverage closer to 70%.
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He argues Block 1 Bluebirds serve mainly as coverage gap-fillers, while Block 2 Bluebirds using Ligado's roughly 40 MHz of uplink/downlink capacity will provide 100% broadband coverage that can also add network capacity (not just coverage) during congestion — e.g., offloading a crowded cell at a beach or stadium onto satellite.
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He frames 100% guaranteed coverage via satellite/MSS spectrum as essential for future applications like IoT, autonomous vehicles, and drones, which will require connectivity for remote human-operator kill switches since they won't be fully autonomous.
Audience Q&A
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Asked why no capped call was used this time, he guessed the company wanted the full proceeds and/or dealers lacked capacity for another large capped-call derivative transaction given the prior one is still outstanding (from the earlier convert that raised the effective conversion price to about $120).
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Asked about battery consumption on handheld devices using the service, he expects AST's large fixed-cell phased array to keep a phone locked onto one satellite for a fixed period (roughly 7-10 minutes) before handoff, which should be more battery-efficient than Starlink's smaller, constantly-moving beams that require more frequent satellite handovers and searching, which drains battery more.
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Asked whether Amazon's Kuiper is being boxed out of direct-to-device globally and needs an AST partnership, he said Kuiper's near-term priority is standing up its fixed-wireless constellation and generating cash flow before tackling direct-to-device, and speculated (based on the personal/commercial relationship between Abel Avellan and Jeff Bezos) that some form of AST-Kuiper partnership is plausible in the future.
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Asked about data centers in space, he was skeptical, arguing they'd need to be positioned far beyond LEO (to avoid orbital debris/collision risk and to stay fixed toward the sun for power/cooling), and that reaching such high orbits is extremely costly (e.g., Falcon 9/Falcon Heavy boosters going to high-GEO-type orbits are typically expended, not recovered).
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Asked when quarterly revenue will be seen after the constellation build-out, he said it will be this quarter (Q3 2025), the first of two quarters this year expected to show material revenue against the previously guided $50-75 million second-half 2025 range, from gateway sales and military work.
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Responding to charts circulating that group AST with pre-revenue/speculative names like Oclo and IonQ, he rebutted by comparing 2030 consensus estimates: AST is projected to generate over $6 billion of revenue and over $5.5 billion of EBITDA in 2030, versus a few hundred million in revenue and roughly $100 million EBITDA for some of the quantum-computing names it gets lumped with.
Watch Items6
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BlueBird 6 (FM1) launch from India
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FM2 (Block 2 Bluebird) launch
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Q3 2025 earnings call
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FCC approval of SCS/direct-to-cell license-modification application (up to 248 satellites)
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Potential additional definitive MNO commercial agreements (e.g., Bell Canada, or Saudi Arabian MNOs such as Saudi Telecom, Zain, or Mobily)
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Military/government contract award announcements
Open Questions5
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Will the new convertible capital primarily fund the jump from a ~45-60 satellite constellation to the full ~90-satellite global constellation, upcoming military contract CapEx, or both?
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Will Iridium end up needing to partner with or sell itself to AST SpaceMobile, Starlink, or another party given its financial strain and pulled long-term guidance?
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Is Globalstar spectrum actually incorporated into AST's AST5000 ASIC, and could that translate into a future commercial arrangement involving Apple and Globalstar?
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Will Apple eventually pivot away from its Globalstar relationship, and what would that mean for Globalstar's standalone prospects?
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Will Amazon's Kuiper end up pursuing a direct-to-device partnership with AST SpaceMobile once its fixed-wireless constellation is established?
Raw Transcript
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[00:00:06] Speaker A: This is the AST SpaceMobile Podcast. [00:00:09] Speaker B: It will just basically come to your phone and be seamless regardless of where you are. We don't want the user even to know that it's connected by satellite. Listen, the opportunity that we have is very, very, very large. [00:00:28] Speaker A: Hey everyone, thanks for joining. I figured I'd host a space after this convertible note offering. I know people have some questions and are wondering, you know, why the company raised this, this amount of capital so quickly. And so we just wanted to share some thoughts about it and also talk about a few other things that have been happening, different news. And yeah, just some review, some expectations for the coming weeks and months, which I think, as I've mentioned before, we've got a really bullish setup heading into end of year, just given all the catalysts that are coming up. But first and foremost, let's talk about the convert. You know, the company upsized what was originally an $850 million convert to $1 billion, and with the overallotment option, which the banks can exercise that would add another $150 million. So $1.15 billion convert offering, which is crazy to think about. If you go back to May of 2024, now the company has about $2.65 billion of pro forma cash as of September 30th. That's essentially 3 to 4 market caps of where AST used to be a little over a year and a half ago or under a year and a half ago, which is, it's kind of crazy to fathom. But obviously, you know, the company's made a ton of progress since then and that's why the market is valuing it at its current market cap. Just, you know, that the company's enormous opportunities in front of it, the market is discounting forward. And so since May, obviously, you know, we've launched 5 Block 5 of the Block.one Bluebirds. We've signed Verizon. We've, yeah, I mean, there's actually, I won't just, I won't go into the list. There's too many things to cover. But yeah, it's yesterday, I'm sorry, this past week, you know, they priced the billion-dollar convertible and now we've got $2.6 billion of performing cash, which is pretty crazy. The company did change its language in terms of the The corporate uses for this money. And so I think as we've highlighted on Twitter specifically, they talked about adding incremental strategic markets. And so I think one way to read that is they are going to go for the full 90 satellite constellation. So not just 45 to 60, which gives them coverage of the primary markets, but then going for 90, which gives them full global coverage. That would be one way to interpret that language. Another way to interpret the language is, and I assume part of this funding is going to go towards some of the military awards that are upcoming, which I think the company is going to get. And so yeah, it was a, I think if you were to talk with the company, I don't think they really expected to have an ATM, you know, and then this convert maybe a month ago, they wouldn't have said, hey, yeah, we're going to put an ATM in place and raise over $1 billion in a convert. But then I think just given the amount of opportunities that they currently have in front of them, they thought it was a good time to raise money. And so to me, that's quite bullish. I think the company has demonstrated that when they raise capital, it's for a good purpose. I mean, even going back to the brutal $100 million raise back in January of 2024, that was to bridge them along with the investment, strategic investment from AT&T, Google, and Vodafone. That was to bridge them to get to the announced partnership with Verizon, which then obviously, you know, we rated the stock from what was single digits at the time when they signed the commercial defender agreement with AT&T. that got them to, I think it was like $5 or $6. And then Verizon signing that partnership where Verizon contributed their spectrum and was working, decided to work closely with AT&T to roll out this service. That's what rerated the stock to all the way as high as, you know, $39 that summer. And, you know, it's been since then, it's been just gangbusters. But anyway, in regards to this convertible, I know there's been some questions about what this instrument means. And interestingly, you know, so just going through the terms, the conversion premium was 22.5%. So the convertible bond can go from a debt instrument into equity at $96.30 or higher, you know, in case an investor chooses to convert it. And this instrument interestingly has a 10-year maturity. And so typically, When you see convertible debt deals, they usually have a 5 to 7-year maturity. I don't think I've ever seen one with 10 years. And so I think that's a testament to how credit investors see the company and its prospects that they're willing to basically lend 10-year paper to the company. And so the, let's see, going back to the terms, though, as I mentioned before, 22.5% conversion premium, And then I think the coupon, I think it was like 2.25%. I'll have to go back and look on that. But yeah, very low interest rate. You know, obviously a decent amount of the convertible investors who take the paper are arbitrageurs. And so what they'll do is they'll buy the convert and then the convert has an underlying delta related to the embedded warrant that's in the bond. And so they'll short stock against it. to get hedged. And what they'll do is they'll monetize volatility. So over time they'll trade deltas. They'll, you know, as the stock goes up, they'll short stock. As the stock goes down, they'll buy back stock. And in essence, they're monetizing volatility, which is why convertible bond instruments are interesting for companies with high level volatility because you can get essentially, you know, lower interest rate debt edit and a higher conversion premium, you know, lower dilution from investors who are interested in having that type of feature where there is, you know, the underlying warrant and they can monetize that over time. But anyway, but yeah, from what I understand, I mean, obviously the deal was upsized from $850 to $1 billion, and so there was a lot of demand there. There was long-only demand, meaning Fundamental investors who actually like the credit and the fundamental story and they just want to own the bond outright. And then of course you've got the convertible arbitrageurs who yesterday, you know, they probably hedged some decent portion of their allotment and they're probably doing so to an extent today. And so you're going to see some period of, you know, digestion from hedging for the next, you know, call it handful days, maybe 3 days. But I think it's interesting to note that the company has kind of changed their approach to these fundraising events. And so I think traditionally companies, especially you see this in biotech where companies will announce a positive phase 1 result or phase 2 result, or they might get some type of approvals and then they'll raise off of the back of that, the stock will go up and then they'll They'll go out with a marketed offering, price at some discount to where the stock is trading, and then go from there. But I think in the company's history, they've started to realize that it's best to raise capital and then have positive events come after it. And so, you know, a key example of that was when they put in the $800 million ATM. I think it was at the beginning, was it October 7th or so? They put that in place and obviously the market kind of poo-pooed on that to a degree. It was down just a few percent, which I think, going back in history, the company typically has been somewhat punished for those things. But then as the company has executed and we've reached this level of maturity where we're about to roll out commercial service, I think now the investors view the company as being good stewards of capital and that we're on the cusp of operationalization and that the capital will be used in a creative way, right? So fast forward to the ATM back on October 7th, the stock traded down, but then lo and behold, I mean, the company knew this for quite some time, obviously, but they announced the next day the definitive commercial agreement with Verizon, which then caused the stock to go up 2 degrees. And then after that, You know, then we kind of went on this run through $100, which is kind of nuts. And so I think the company understands that and has a number of positive catalysts that are lined up. I don't know when they're going to drop and I don't know exactly what those catalysts are, but I think we can all kind of guess at what is in the realm of possibility, whether, you know, Bell Canada definitive commercial agreement's in place, It could be, you know, some of these military awards. We've got 8 so far, and Golden Dome, if we get that, that'll be the 9th. Given the shutdown government, I don't think we're going to hear about military awards yet, but as soon as the lights are turned back on, those are probably going to be— or we're probably going to start getting news around those. But yeah, there's a whole host of other potential events that could drop anytime. And so I think the company is very aware of that dynamic. And, you know, that's why I posted the other day, like, I'm really bullish about this capital raise because it's really, in my opinion, is to accelerate the business, to pull forward the production and launch of the Constellation. And there's also like some commercial Implications of that, right? So one of the if you think about sequencing, one of the things about this constellation and rolling out commercial service is that you're not going to just do it. You know, you're not going to go open up service in ten countries all at once or ten MNOs all at once. You're going to do it in a phased process. And what the company has talked about in the past is that for the carriers that are willing to put money up front, which is commercial prepayment, potentially some investment, which I think at this point, candidly, I don't think the company needs strategic investment from M&Os. At this point, I think they are looking, and this is part of the reason why you raise a large quantum of capital, because the company doesn't need money. They can just go to the M&Os. If there was a discussion where the M&Os had a bit more leverage, now it's more like, hey, we have all the money we need. If you want priority service, meaning like if you want to come after, let's see, AT&T, Verizon, Vodafone, and Rakuten, then you're going to have to, when we negotiate the commercial split, it's going to be, you know, make up the number. I don't know, 60% AST, 40% you, right? And then you also, the commercial prepayment needs to be $100 million or whatever it is. Like, prefunded revenue. But that's the beauty of raising enough money to do what you need to do for the next several years is that negotiating leverage goes back into your favor and you have to give away less. And I think part of the change in the language of adding incremental strategic markets, to me that says we're thinking more broadly than just what you guys are contemplating, which is like, okay, Bell Canada, it's most likely they'll be next, right? But then If you're going to expand service into incremental markets, part of that is you've got to spend more money to build out the infrastructure, but also in terms of coverage, you might, instead of 60 satellites being enough to cover the most commercially attractive markets, then perhaps you're going to 90 to cover things globally because some of these MNOs are willing to put some money up front. who may not have been in that original group, right? And so that's where I think things become interesting, where, for example, Saudi Telecom or Zain or Mobily, any 3 of the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia MNOs, like maybe they are going to announce a deal soon. And part of this raise is to get the constellation up and running and to take on additional MNOs sooner than was originally planned. And so I think Under that context, if it is to add incremental markets more rapidly, then that means probably additional commercial definitive agreements are coming. And so I wouldn't be surprised to see those. But yeah, so I think pulling forward, raising the capital at this level and accelerating production and launch. I think is quite bullish. And I think people, you know, to put this in numbers, let me just go back here. So a billion-dollar convert, we're going to ignore the overlottment option, but at an effective conversion premium of 22.5%, which is $96.30, you divide a billion dollars by that stock price, and that gives you effective shares issued if, you know, the convert, if the stock price trades above $96.30, and then within the timeframe of 10 years, you know, if people exercise it to convert to shares, that's 10.38 million shares. And so on comparing that to the total shares outstanding of 364 million, that's effectively 2.8% dilution, which is insane if you think about it, right? Like 2.8% dilution for a billion dollars when the entire market cap of the company in May of 2024 was like $700 million. So it's, yeah, it's quite, I think as a shareholder, to me, I was excited because it's like, oh, they're raising this massive quantum of capital and they they'll have the full control of their destiny in their hands, and it's for dilution that's de minimis. Or, you know, if the bond stays outstanding, it's 2.25% coupon, which is nothing, right? And actually, you know, from the proceeds of this offering, they can go invest it in treasuries and it's actually accretive. But anyway, but yeah, I think this convertible deal, it's going to take a little bit of time for you know, for shares to trade and hedgers to get hedged, the current barbs. But then after that, as I mentioned before, and I've written about this, we've got a tremendous amount of catalysts that are coming up. And so today, ISRO, one of the officials there confirmed that it looks like BB-6, which is in India currently and being integrated, it looks like that launch is going to be the first week of December, which I think For some people that were speculating, whether it was like media outlets or others who were kind of doing the backwards math, some people were expecting perhaps late December or even as early or the early part of January. But I think today's news that BB6 will launch the first week of December, that might actually put it in the running for going first. Now FM2 is in the final stages of being put together and testing, or actually it's probably going through testing right now. And it's probably, you've got basically a week left because I think the company was guiding towards having it shipped out to Florida before the end of the month. So we should get some type of press release if the company decides to announce that, but we should probably get a press release that FM2 has either left or it's already arrived in Florida in the next few days. Right? And so if that's the case, then doing, assuming 30 days of integration, In preparation, perhaps you're looking at a launch sometime in late November or early December for FM2. And so interestingly, I think both of those satellites have a pretty good shot of either going first or going at the same time. So it's going to be a pretty action-packed calendar. And then of course, we've got the quarterly results coming up, which Let me just look here, see what Bloomberg is projecting. I think probably looking at November 14th. And so I think that quarterly update is going to be pretty jam-packed full of new updates, especially given the most recent capital raises. I think the company's going to be communicating exactly what that money's being used for. And there's probably going to be some updates around military awards, additional M&O partners, a whole host of things. I mean, who knows? But I think in my last communications with the company, which was this past week, there was a very bullish tone about things that are kind of on the come and, you know, the upcoming quarter. So, so yeah, I think, I think there's a lot to look forward to. And as we know, you know, the stock trades quite well heading into these launch events. And now we've got a bookend for BB6, which is the first week of December, and then we're going to have BB7, which will be sometime around that area as well. And so I do think, and then of course we've got again the quarterly update on November 14th. So I think the stock is setting up quite well and the company knows that once we've raised this capital, we want to have some good events come behind it to reward people. and also condition of market that when they do raise capital, it's for a good reason. And for those who partake in the investment, convertible investors, they know that there's positive things that are coming. Let's see here. The other interesting thing that ends today actually is the comment period for AST SpaceMobile's US supplemental coverage from space application with the FCC. And as far as we can tell, even though the government shut down their comments, I don't think that by the very nature of the government being shut down, I don't think that affords anyone who wants to comment on the application additional time. They still have to submit their comments by then. And so the comment period ends today. And what that means is if anyone has any objections or wants modifications to the application, They need to submit those. And so far from what we can tell, there have been no comments, which is quite bullish. Quite bullish meaning perhaps competitors kind of view it as fait accompli and, or who knows? I mean, maybe there will be some comments at the end of the day, but I think that's quite positive. That's a huge catalyst, right? So once comment period ends, the FCC is going to take a look. And as we know with this FCC who is supremely focused on space and being competitive against China. I think the US commercial application, sorry, the commercial application for US market access, I think that's going to get approved within this quarter. And so whether that happens in a few weeks or I forget exactly the process in terms of how many days once comment period ends, how long it takes the FCC to approve the application, but I think as we've seen, this FCC is not operating like the previous bureaucracies. They're moving at what I would call warp speed. So after the comment period today, who knows? We might get approval sooner than people think. And so that's something to keep an eye out for. And let's see. Oh, I guess the other, another thing that happened today, which I didn't put on my notes, is that B. Riley upgraded their price target for AST. They upgraded it to, I think, $95 a share from $60. And in particular, B. Riley is thinking about it the right way, which is that the company raised a large quantum of capital, over $1 billion, that's mildly dilutive and is very cheap. And they're doing that to accelerate pulling forward the deployment of the full constellation, not just the 60 satellites for key markets, but 90 satellites for full global coverage. So they view that as bullish, which I do too. And so I raised their price target today. I did post a tweet and thanks to Space Mob for getting their hands on the report, but you can read the entire report there. They go through some of the recent events and also their thoughts around the capital raise, which I think is Again, I think going for global coverage and perhaps having this additional money to start working on the Block 2 mid-band Bluebirds, also prefunding some of the CapEx needed for some of these military contracts. I mean, it's always good to have more capital. And I've said this before, now that the company is well over $26, $27 billion in market cap, It doesn't make sense to run this thing like a startup where you are counting your pennies and you're going to run at bare minimum cash, like $200, $300 million. You're going to build a war chest. You build a war chest because you have the market cap to do so and the access to credit. And so by having $2.6 billion, and I think they've got, what is it, 4 or 5 Sorry, I think it's like $530 million left on the ATM. So let's say max liquidity of over $3 billion. That's how you run a large company that is focused on executing on opportunity. It gives you the ability to use cash offensively, right? So whether it's procuring materials, hiring additional shifts to build satellites, also procuring additional factory space. I mean, One of the things that the company discussed in the last quarterly update is, and that was a surprise to everyone, is that, oh yeah, we can go above 6 months, or sorry, 6 satellites per month production. We can go to 12. And then it was hinted that perhaps the military may want to have some of their own Bluebirds. And so maybe that's why you would take production even higher. So I think it's important that people recognize, especially when this convert offering was announced, you saw a number of retail investors say, well, why do they need this money? I can't stand this. You know, why do they have to raise money? Look, if you don't trust management, then you shouldn't be investing in this company. But I think more importantly, you know, it's not as if, as we've discussed before, Abel owns, you know, plus 70 million shares of Class C shares. Yes, they're super voting shares, but every offering or capital raise they do that's equity, it dilutes him economically too, right? So he's the ultimate owner-operator. I mean, just in the last proxy, there are several of us who pointed out like he continues since the beginning, he continues to draw zero salary. He doesn't get any stock awards. He doesn't get any bonuses. His entire economic incentive and worth is just through his ownership in Class C shares. And so when they raise money, they do it for a purpose. And I think Going back to this convert, you know, they see a multitude of opportunities and so having the cash there as an offensive weapon, I think is important versus, I mean, just going back to 2024 during the lean years when the company had $100 million or $200 million of cash on the balance sheet, they were restricted in what they could do. And everything they did had to be successful and there was no room for error. Whereas now they can do things faster and they can get to scale quicker. And so having that money, I think, you know, changes the game for the company. And also if you go to M&Os, regulators, governments, and you're able to say, yeah, we're a $30 billion enterprise and we've got $3 billion of liquidity. And that gives You know, your counterparties a lot of confidence that you have the ability to get to the finish line. And so I think they're kind of, you know, if you were to look at AST SpaceMobile today with $3 billion of total liquidity versus, you know, if the, if the company just had $200 million, then people would heavily discount the stock that, you know, I don't think the company's going to get pieced together the funding to get commercial service up. But now that equation's different today and the company's been rewarded for that. So I think it's important people recognize that, you know, when the company's raising money, they're doing it for a good reason. And importantly, they're going to keep a minimum cash balance, which is going to be pretty hefty because you never know, one day a Legato might come up again and you want to be able to pull the trigger. And by having cash in hand, you can do that more quickly versus having to go to credit investors and putting together an SPV and then, you know, getting a number of banks lined up and all sorts of other stuff, right? Like you can move more quickly, which I think as an investor, you want the company to have that strategic flexibility. Anyway, but yeah, moving on. AT&T yesterday reported earnings. I think it's interesting, and this is kind of the key takeaway is that while AT&T and T-Mobile today didn't go out of their way to talk about direct-to-device. It was like topic du jour in Q&A. So AT&T, John Stanky got asked about what they're doing around direct-to-device and he, I tweeted about it, but he was very complimentary of AST SpaceMobile and how the service is going to help them to better serve customers. And then Today, T-Mobile had their conference call, which was quite funny to listen to. Of course, they were asked about direct advice, and they claimed that they co-invented direct advice with SpaceX. So it's always fun to see their marketing hats on where they make these bold claims that they did it. They invented the category and that they were first, which to me, kind of like they've rolled out a service first, a first commercial service, which obviously has a lot of areas of improvement to go. But as we've discussed in the past, Starlink is going to get to a great service and AST is as well. And it's going to be a duopoly. And that's, it's a matter of how many MNOs can you sign up and scale the business. I think architecturally, Starlink, they're, maybe they'll fix this in their next iteration of satellites, but technology, they're at a disadvantage, but eventually they'll get to something that's pretty decent. And that's okay. Like, I think having 2 providers in a market that's serving, what, 6 billion subscribers globally, that's, I think that's a pretty good end state. And if you've got the best technology and you've got 2/3 of the most profitable market, that's really good. That's a good position. And you, you know, you have a management team that's apolitical, is friends with everyone. is just there to provide service. They're not there to take the limelight. They're providing true broadband on a wholesale basis where an AT&T or Verizon, they can pretty much label it themselves where they don't need to talk about AST SpaceMobile. Like that's where you want to be versus I think T-Mobile, they've kind of made the Faustian bargain and sold their souls. And we'll see ultimately how that relationship works out over time. But yeah, the key takeaway is that It's kind of getting more mindshare or not kind of, it is getting more mindshare with institutional investors where on all these conference calls investors are asking some of the most elementary questions about, hey, is direct-to-device going to be competitive and take over terrestrial networks? Which it's not. But then also, you know, how is this going to drive customer satisfaction, adoption, you know, ARPU, all that stuff like that's starting to come out. So I think it's, It's important to note because the TMT investors, at this point, it's pretty much unavoidable. Like they've got to know about AST SpaceMobile. They've got to know about Starlink because it's going to become a much bigger part of the wireless industry. And for any smart investors, you know, there's only one public company to play, way to play it, which is AST. So on the flip side, I did listen to the Iridium conference call today and boy, that's just, they're just in a really tough spot. I think going back to 2021, 2022, Matt Desch, who's the CEO of Iridium, he used to kind of make a joke about AST SpaceMobile and kind of poo-poo the whole idea of direct-to-device. But now with AST SpaceMobile and Starlink, especially after they purchased EchoStar Spectrum, I mean, you guys have seen it. Iridium stock price has gone from in the 30s to now 18, and it's off today because some of the comments he made. But they're just in a really tough spot because like on the one hand, Iridium has been a successful business. They've generated a ton of free cash flow. They're expected to do, I think like $300 million of free cash flow this year. But the issue for them is that they kind of went into financial engineering land and And so once they, once the company came out of bankruptcy and had done well and got military contracts, which saved them, you know, if you look at their total, I think subscribers, it's like maybe a million globally or 1.1 million. That's really low. And of course they're charging premium prices for anywhere connectivity, but once direct-to-device really gets cooking and now you've got AST SpaceMobile and Starlink that are going to consolidate MSS spectrum. So even beyond terrestrial coverage or terrestrial spectrum, they're going to utilize satellite spectrum. Where does that put Iridium? And so these guys were, you know, they pay a pretty big dividend. They have a huge share buyback program, which, you know, in retrospect is going to look pretty stupid because they, you know, they were buying a bunch, buying back a bunch of stock in the 30s and 20s, and now the stock's at 18. But they also took on debt to pay for those dividends and share buybacks. And so they've got a ton of leverage on as well. And I remember back in the day when Iridium, not back in the day, it was recently, like a year ago, they were touting like this whole CapEx holiday where, hey, we're not, we don't need to invest in satellites. And so we're just going to return a bunch of capital to shareholders. And so yeah, they went from being able to fund their future and kind of pivot to now they're in a really tough spot, right? Because a lot of their investors are income-oriented. They're yield guys who want dividends, right? So they, if they go cut the dividend, then you're going to have a bunch of investors exit the stock, which then stock goes down. That limits their financial flexibility to go do stuff. And so they're just in a really tough place. You could really hear it in their Q&A where funny enough, like some of the analysts who are bullish on Iridium and are neutral on AST were on the Q&A. They were all like grasping for some level of hope or groping for some nugget from the company because the entire Q&A was focused on who can you partner with? What could you do strategically? Can you sell yourselves? If you Basically, you guys don't have the financial wherewithal to pivot, so can you get a lifeline from somebody? And so there were some interesting comments that Mega Constellation made. I think they talked about, and then of course, like the company's going to say this, that they're talking to everybody and they're going to try to potentially develop some type of partnership. And the company didn't in a full-throated way say they were for sale. But they did say like, you know, if there's a shareholder maximizing alternative, then we, of course we'd consider it, which yeah, they have to because they're in a tough spot. You know, Iridium in and of itself is interesting. It does have global harmonized L-band spectrum. It's only 8 megahertz wide. So I mean, that would give you like decent data and voice coverage, but beyond that, it's, its use is coverage. Like, That's good. But then I think for a player like Starlink, if they were to consider something, it might be tough to just— well, I don't know, maybe Starlink could utilize L-band spectrum. But for AST with the Block 2 Bluebirds, guess what? We already are utilizing L-band spectrum. That Iridium spectrum is right next to Ligado spectrum. And so there's actually some interesting synergies there where You could, there's a guard band, which is a little sliver of spectrum that you have to use to, you know, both operators basically say we're not going to transmit over that guard band so that there's no interference. But if Ligado spectrum is combined with Iridium, you could have to utilize that guard band and just kind of combine the two. So there is some interesting, so there is some interesting, you know, potential there. But at the same time, the thing for Iridium is that it's kind of an eroding asset. And so while it does generate $300 million of free cash flow a year, how durable are those service revenues? Because they clearly are losing subscribers. And once AEC SpaceMobile and Starlink really get going, how much can they actually hold onto? And so one of the big comments that I thought was interesting and quite telling is that In the conference call, you know, Iridium's got a very predictable business, assuming, you know, some moderate levels of churn and growth. You know, they basically give long-term forecasts all the way out to 2030, whereas today they basically pulled that forecast and they specifically pulled it for the fact that the competitive landscape is changing. And so, yeah, that's a pretty big admission for a company that Originally it was like Direct Advice, it's a niche area. It's not going to, you know, they didn't see a future in it. Whereas now their tone has changed where they and everybody who's invested in them recognize the huge competitive threat it is. And then when they talk about positioning, they say, well, we have unique P&T services we can provide to the military. We are a complementary service to Direct Advice, which is regional in nature. We're global. Which by the way, like that's actually, that has changed because now you've got AST SpaceMobile and Starlink that will be pursuing MSS spectrum. And so yeah, they're in a tough spot. But I think the reason why I brought up Iridium is that, you know, there's some speculation that maybe they'll have to sell themselves or partner with somebody. But yeah, I'm not sure if that is, if that does happen, I'm not sure when it would happen and under what circumstances, because I think They're in a tough spot. And if you're a buyer, you get paid to wait because financially the company's just going to erode over time. But on the flip side, there could be some synergies there. Like if you were a Starlink or an AST, you could be interested for their spectrum and kind of harvest the business, manage it for cash over time. And then at the right time, if your constellation's up, you switch it over and just add it to your portfolio spectrum. In the meantime, you could take a decent amount of SG&A out, CapEx, R&D as well, because they're not, from what I understand, just given the financial mess that they've put themselves in, they don't have the ability to afford another constellation. So yeah, it's a tough spot. [00:37:45] Speaker B: Yeah. [00:37:46] Speaker A: I think another thing I wanted to touch upon is there's an information article that came out today That talks about how Apple and Starlink may work together. And I did take a look at the article and I'll try to share it later, but I think it's important to note, and this is, by the way, this is where the Globalstar headlines came out of, which, by the way, for those, I'll get to the point. Like the headlines say that the company would consider selling it above $10 billion, but the article reads that it's actually quite bearish for Globalstar. So If you're speculating on Globalstar, yeah, that headline is not bullish and I'll explain why. But in this article today, it talked about how it's hinting that potentially Starlink and Apple could be working together where Starlink, you know, Apple is integrating some of Starlink's EchoStar frequencies into its handsets. And then Starlink is also in their next generation of satellites is going to be putting Globalstar spectrum into their chips. And I think it's important to note that these are journalists who perhaps don't have the full context or they're speculating, or maybe they're fed stuff. But interestingly, AST SpaceMobile's not mentioned in the article. And then at the end, of course, Tim Ferriss gives his little worthless blurb. So you can kind of tell like what angle the article's coming from. But in that article, it also talks about how Apple's dissatisfied with Globalstar and that it's a tenuous relationship. And perhaps at some point Globalstar on its own wants to sell itself, which of course would be tough because Apple basically owns Globalstar. They would have the right of first refusal unless Apple decided to wash their hands of the thing, which is possible, I guess. But from my perspective, I think Apple's distressed investment in Globalstar was very smart. They got a toehold and And some type of satellite service that's global, that spectrum is worth a decent amount of money. And at some point in the future, they could shut down Globalstar and then lease the spectrum out to somebody else or partner with someone else. So there's a whole host of things that Apple can do with that. And so there is quite a bit of value there. So I don't think for Apple, Globalstar is going to be a bad investment. For Globalstar investors, I think it's important to know and we've talked about this before, Apple owns basically 85% of the capacity of Globalstar. So what you own is some type of return off of that 85%, and then you get the optionality of the leftover 15%. I don't know what that 15% is worth in terms of satellite capacity. Who do you sell that to and what are the economics of it? But in the article, it talks about how, as I mentioned before, Apple and Starlink, they're they're coordinating, you know, Apple's going to add Starlink frequencies to its phone and vice versa, which by the way, like that's just standard corporate, I mean, standard practice for the industry. Because for example, like at Constellation's worried about this before, Apple is actively trying to shape the 5G non-terrestrial network standards. And so in their FCC filings, they, they, they're trying to shape, for example, how Ligado spectrum, um, Viasat, others, uh, spectrum, how they're going to be incorporated into the standard. And that also includes EchoStar too. So the fact that Apple's trying to, um, have a hand in shaping that, those standards shouldn't be a surprise to anyone. And they're doing that with, again, they're doing that with Ligado spectrum too. So, you know, I could write the same article, I guess, and say that AST and Apple are working together, which, um, I, they probably are. But I think AST is a bit more of a conservative organization and they're not going to go float rumors to journalists to, I don't know, for whatever purpose. But yeah, Apple, I think it's important to note that Apple is a handset manufacturer. They will incorporate any service and any frequencies that their MNOs request of them, right? Because at the end of the day, the MNOs are their most important partner and customer. They're the ones who distribute handsets. They're the ones who have the terrestrial spectrum that provides service to the handsets. This is why Apple at all costs tries to avoid competing directly with their handset— sorry, competing directly with MNOs because Apple needs them. And the MNOs obviously to a degree need Apple. At least, you know, if Verizon or AT&T decided to drop Apple handsets and move to Samsung, it would be really tough It'd be really tough for me to go to T-Mobile, but I might have to because I actually, I love Apple products, right? And so there's this symbiotic relationship, but Apple also knows that they can't piss off their MNO customers. They could do that when iPhone was like a majority of smartphone sales, but that doesn't exist today. But Apple probably represents a majority or decent chunk of premium handphones. premium user usage, right? So, but anyway, um, but on the other point, um, it's also, I, I can guarantee you, I don't know this for sure, but I can get— well, I know one thing for sure. Um, when AST SpaceMobile developed their ASIC and started that process years ago, um, one of the things that they've publicly said is we incorporated Ligado spectrum into that ASIC. Now, why would they do that? Well, because when you develop an ASIC, it takes many years and, and you're going to want that ASIC to have as much flexibility as possible to across as many, um, frequencies as possible. And so when AST started work on that spectrum or the, the ASIC, um, not only did they incorporate all the cellular low bands, they incorporated all the MSS bands as well, which included Legato. So when they announced the deal and in the last, I think it was the last quarter quarterly update, um, maybe the one before, you know, someone had asked about Legato and And being able to utilize that spectrum. And Abel was like, oh yeah, you know, years ago we incorporated Ligado spectrum into the chips so we can use it like immediately. Like once we get FCC approval. And of course, like, you know, the mid-band bluebirds are up, like they're going to light up that spectrum. The other thing that is important to know is that I, and I don't know this for sure, but I can guarantee you that Globalstar spectrum is incorporated into AST SpaceMobile's ASICs. The reason why that is, is that it doesn't really cost you much to do that, and you never know what the future may hold, right? So maybe in the future, if Apple and Globalstar enters into some type of partnership with AST to utilize the mid-band Bluebirds, then they can light up that spectrum, right? So, and that's the beauty of the architecture of having large phased array is that you can you can serve a very wide range of frequencies. And so for the mid-band, or sorry, low-band Bluebirds, that's anywhere from 600 to 900 megahertz. For the upcoming mid-band Bluebirds, that's 1.5 gigahertz to, in terms of what I've seen disclosed, as high as 2.6 gigahertz. And so that would encompass Globalstar, Ligado, I mean, even EchoStar, or if Verizon buys AWS-3 spectrum, it can cover that too, right? So I think it's important to have some context where if a journalist writes an article, it's like, oh yeah, you know, this is kind of typical stuff, like incorporating frequencies into your chipset just in case for the future you're going to do that. And so, but going back to the whole Globalstar point, I think in the article it talk specifically about how Apple may eventually pivot off of Globalstar, which, you know, honestly, like, I don't see why they would do that. I think it makes sense to just continue to have that service as a nice feature in case other things go down. I don't know why they would just kind of throw that away after making a $2 billion investment or how much ever it was. But I think, you know, the fact that That Apple is now so focused on end-to-end 5G connectivity and shaping the standards and making sure that their phones are going to work with Starlink. They're going to work with AST SpaceMobile. They're going to work with any host number of, whether it's like Skylo or some of these other companies that are doing text messaging, low-band service. They're going to want to make sure their phone works with everything, right? Because that's At the end of the day, that's how you sell handsets. And so anyway, that, that, yeah, I think that's important context for people to have. But yeah, there's a lot going on. And I think one of the comments kind of crystallizes it that Matt Desch, the CEO of Iridium, said today. He, I gotta go back and look at the, maybe I'll put it out as a quote 'cause it's so good, but He specifically talks about how direct-to-device is something that they didn't foresee coming into play until 2030. No, no, 2035. And this actually mirrors his comments where he said, yeah, that's not an industry that's going to happen until 10 years from now. So yeah, it actually fits 2035. But then he admitted today on the call that, but now it's something that we have to think about competitively that's going to happen in 2029. And, you know, he's saying 2029 because you're trying to buy as much time as you can. But that just goes to show you, I mean, the entire industry is changing and getting disrupted and direct-to-device is going to be a pretty powerful force. And even in T-Mobile, I mean, and here's another thing, when you listen to these MNO CEOs, whether it's Verizon, AT&T, or T-Mobile, you've got to look at it, you got to take their comments with a grain of salt, right? And this is where Tim Ferriss, or better known as Dim Spacebar, or some of these other industry guys, they read words and they, they're like, oh, that automatically means this or that. And it's like, no, you've got to put some context around it, right? And so when an MNO CEO says like, oh yeah, this is good for filling gaps and, you know, when you're in a dead spot and, you know, then this service makes sense. They're going to say that because by definition, if they say something else, that means that they're admitting that their own service is not good, right? And so when a company like Verizon goes out and says, yeah, we've got 96% coverage in the US, that doesn't mean 96% of the actual landmass of the US. It actually means like 96% of where people live and work. And when you actually look at the coverage, it's actually Something more along the lines of 70% of the landmass covered, the other 30% is not. And so even today, T-Mobile talking about their partnership with SpaceX, they say, you know, SpaceX, it's going to be great for, with this new EchoStar spectrum, it's going to be great for coverage when you're out of terrestrial coverage. And that actually is not true. And they've got to talk that way because you can't, again, you can't like expose weaknesses, right? What EchoStar does is it gives Starlink 100% coverage of the US, just like Ligado gives you 100% coverage. And so in T-Mobile's case, for them to say that, it seems a bit defensive. And I think it's important, you know, for AT&T and Verizon, when you hear these CEOs speak, like you've got to always look at it from their perspective. Like this is a Nice feature. It's going to provide better customer satisfaction. But by the way, our service as it stands terrestrially is great. It's amazing. We have full coverage. Like rarely will there ever be a dropped call or you're in a dead spot, which we all know from personal experience, like that's just not true. But if you're like a dim spacebar, you know, Tim Ferriss, it's like, oh my God, this guy said like it's just for dead zones. So it's only going to be enforced in parks. It's like, no, Dipshit. It's for all the areas. It's broader than that, number one. And number two, what Legato does is it allows AST SpaceMobile to actually provide additional capacity for these carriers. And so it's going to overlap with the terrestrial network. So the Block 1 Bluebirds are going to be gap fillers in coverage, and then the Block 2 Bluebirds are actually going to provide 100% Internet coverage, broadband coverage that is going to augment, it's going to bolster Verizon AT&T's network. And so if you can imagine you're in an area where the coverage, the network's getting inundated with too much use, like maybe it's a beach, then you'll have the ability to switch over to, you know, seamlessly, hopefully, if they, if they can work out the technology, which, you know, seamless handover is, is, is key, right? Like that's what makes the service user-friendly and consumers, like consumers don't even, the ideal place where you want to end up is where consumers have no idea if they're on terrestrial or satellite network. It just works. And that's like the best goal for these companies. And so for AST, having the ability to have Ligado spectrum, you know, 40 megahertz of uplink and downlink capacity, on top of the terrestrial network for AT&T and Verizon, that's a really powerful tool, right? So if you're at a baseball game or if you're on the beach, I mean, there's a lot of people and the network's slow, your phone hopefully will have the ability to aggregate that additional capacity. And all of a sudden, like your service is better. You'll have, as opposed to sometimes when your phone goes, drops to 3G or whatever it is, you'll actually have the ability to leverage both networks and get additional capacity. And so I think that's where, that's like the big game changer going out beyond just additional supplemental coverage, but then providing additional capacity. And that 100% coverage is important as you get into other applications, whether it's Internet of Things, you know, autonomous vehicles, drones, all that stuff. By being able to say you have 100% coverage from satellite, which by the way, like with cellular terrestrial spectrum and towers, that is an impossibility. It will never happen because you have to keep building towers and putting towers up in certain areas is just not economic. And even in cities like LA or New York, you know, whether it's geography, like you have like a valley and mountains, That might cut off signal, but then also you have structural impediments from a social point of view, right? Like people don't want towers. And so there might be parts of LA or the Hamptons. We always talk about the Hamptons because it's a wealthy enclave of Long Island, but there's like a whole host of dead spots in the Hamptons because people don't want towers in their backyard and they don't want it on the roof. And so satellite, especially using MSS spectrum, then you get 100% coverage in those areas. And that's where, you know, we've talked about like from a regulatory point of view for some of these services like drone delivery or autonomous vehicles or whatever it is, like those things are going to need a human operator to be able to turn off, have a kill switch at any time, and they'll need to be connected. They won't be fully AI autonomous. And so that's going to require connectivity. And so in those areas, satellite coverage is basically the only game in town, right? So, but yeah, that's, I think today we kind of, I don't know, actually now thinking about it, like today is pretty much like a seminal event, right? Like you had AST SpaceMobile and a 2-day marketed overnight They were able to raise $1 billion or basically $1.15 billion. You had AT&T and Verizon, sorry, AT&T and T-Mobile basically get fielded questions about direct-to-device and it's a key focus for people. You had Iridium have a conference call basically saying, we screwed up, we should have been plowing money into R&D and thinking about the next thing and we didn't. And so we're kind of screwed and so we need to work with somebody. If they'll have us. And, you know, we thought we had until 2035, but lo and behold, like it's coming faster than we expected. So yeah, it's actually just thinking through what I've covered today is a pretty seminal and important day. And yeah, it's maybe we'll look back on this Twitter Space and be like, oh yeah, that was like the point in time where things really started to accelerate. Like the dam broke. And Iridium and Globalstar. Yeah. And all these legacy guys, they really, I mean, I guess the other, I didn't think about talking about it 'cause I really don't think about it at all. But earlier this week, Lynk, which was an early direct-to-device player, they merged with OmniSpace and they're being backed by SES, which is a European satellite communications company, pretty well capitalized actually. But, you know, I joked that that's like 2 garbage trucks colliding because OmniSpace has some spectrum allocation in S-band in different locations around the world. And then interestingly, Lynk is a direct-to-device player. Their satellites are focused on low-band spectrum. And so by combining the two. They're not compatible today, but eventually if Lynk does, if they do reenter to architect their satellites, and I don't know, you know, if they, how long that's going to take, then perhaps they could utilize OmniSpace spectrum. But then if indeed that does happen, they'll need to spend the CapEx to put up a constellation. And then on top of that, They'll need MNO partners, which I think Leek boasts that they've got 50 MNO partners today. However, these are small guys, like, you know, little operators in the Cook Islands or something, you know, no one of consequence. But anyway, but I think there you've seen that, that's a marriage of desperation where Omnispace, I think, had been trying to shop itself. There were no buyers because In essence, like what they have are spectrum rights. But as we all know, you can go to regulator and if you're not, if you don't have a plan and you don't have money, the spectrum rights mean nothing, right? And so, so yeah, so you're seeing, I think for OmniSpace, they probably have build-out requirements to keep ahold of the spectrum that they've been granted, of which, you know, all that stuff is going to come up for renewal. And so Part of it is, I am guessing, I don't know this because I'm not involved, but I'm guessing they merged with Lynk to then be able to go to regulators and say, hey, look, we've got real satellites that we're going to put up and we're going to try to meet these buildout requirements. And they're basically buying some time, right? So yeah, there's a lot that has happened this past week and I think the landscape has shifted. And today you're seeing, I mean, it's been a slow burn, but today I think is a true, the first real admission from a legacy player, which is Iridium, where they just, they've admitted that they screwed up strategically and they're in a tough spot. And so that's why their stock is where it is. But that said, you know, there could be some future for them in partnership with someone. I just don't know who. And, you know, AST could potentially, but I think The key thing for AST is that they've got bigger fish to fry. They've got an amazing opportunity in front of them. And so why bother at this point with Iridium? But I think perhaps if there's some type of sweetheart deal in the future, it could make sense. I could lay out a bull case for why the two together would make sense. But I think also for AST, they've got the capital, they've got the M&O relationships, They've got the regulatory know-how and they've got spectrum and they're going out to get more. And so I think for them right now, there's no need to do anything strategically there. Anyway, I've been rambling. Let me just go through the comments and see if there's any questions here. Worldwide coverage for spectrum, even if 8 MHz is valuable. This person's talking about Legato, or sorry, Iridium. Revenue share deal similar to Legato AST would allow them to continue to generate valuable cash flow for investors. Potential win-win. Yeah, there could be. I mean, there could be some potential partnership in the future where Legato is able to leverage AST SpaceMobile mid-end Bluebirds and light up their spectrum, and then they can decommission their entire constellation. And then there's some type of revenue share. I mean, I think anything's possible. I mean, I think it's important to note for Iridium that they do have a niche business and it's decent, and the US government keeps giving them military contracts. I mean, I think part of it is they're trying to support that company because they don't want it to go under because it does serve some important communications roles and If you think about the US government's focus on resiliency and redundancy, especially in contested areas where electronic warfare is going to be prevalent, and perhaps there might be an adversary looking to take down any number of constellations for periods of time, you want to have more than less of these things going. And so I think Iridium has strategic value there. But yeah, they could work together. Iridium could also end up working with Starlink in some capacity. I don't know how that would play out, but yeah, it's possible. Let's see. Can you talk about the offering over 2 days? How does it work? Is it private? Why not capped call this time? Okay, so what I meant by a 2-day offering is that I mentioned this in the Space Weekly The deal with, so certain investors who are convertible bond investors were brought over the wall, meaning they got restricted. So once you get restricted, you're getting material non-public information. You and your firm cannot trade on that information. And that's how it should work. And obviously sometimes like stuff gets leaked and, you know, some of that information might get in the market, which obviously us as retail, we have no idea. Probably, I mean, most investors had no idea that this was coming, but maybe there were because the stock traded down to a degree prior to this deal, but it was marketed for 2 days with convertible debt investors and then priced on the day it was announced that evening. So that's what I mean by 2-day marketing. Let's see. Is the information available over Bloomberg? No, it's not. It's not until the company announces it. So again, only the people that they brought over the wall who get restricted. And, you know, if you get restricted and you trade on it, there's legal repercussions. If you do stuff like that, you trade on material non-public information, you know, you'll have the SEC and FINRA coming after you. So you don't want to do that. But that's what it means by getting restricted coming over the wall. And when you get over the wall, like, and you learn about a deal and you listen to it, you can either participate or not. But even, but if you decide not to participate, you can't trade on it. The only time that you can trade is after the deal is announced. And then, you know, obviously some guys get out there and start hedging their convertible bond by shorting the stock. Why not a capped call this time? I think the company wanted the proceeds and they viewed the— previously they did a capped call, which got the strike all the way up to like $120. I think perhaps given that there was, there's already this TAP call out there, I don't know if I mean, there might not have been dealer capacity to do another large derivatives transaction with one already out there. So that's my guess. I think there may not have been capacity to do so. What will battery consumption look like for service on current handheld devices? I think it's going to be pretty good. So one of the things that AST SpaceMobile, by having a large phased array and fixed cells, these satellites are able to beam down fixed cells, is that A satellite's going to be able to point on your phone for a fixed period of, call it 8, 7, 7, 8, 9, 10 minutes, and then you'll get handed off to somebody else and another satellite. So with that in mind, your power usage is not going to be that bad because you're going to be fixed on a particular satellite. Now with Starlink, those beams are smaller and they're moving constantly, and so you're going to be connecting with multiple satellites over a period of, over that same period of 7 to 8 minutes. And so you're going to have to go through the handover and, and Katsu can talk about this in more detail, but from what I understand, frequent handovers and searching for satellites, that actually drains batteries quite a bit more. And so I think the way it should work is that you will have lower, you'll have more efficient battery usage using an AST SpaceMobile service versus Starlink to your phone. Let's see. Is Iridium a worthwhile target for AST to pursue from a spectrum IT rights standpoint? Is Kuiper being boxed out of D2D globally and in need of an AST partnership? That's a good question. I mean, I think, first of all, Kuiper is trying to get its initial constellation up for fixed wireless service. And so I think that's probably the biggest problem they want to tackle. It's they need to get a large number of satellites up in place, trying to do that. And then, you know, maybe them trying to work out some type of direct-to-device solution or partnership at the same time. I think it's going to be tough, right? Because you actually need fixed wireless to start working and going first, and that's going to generate cash flow and then you can go perhaps invest in something else. I think, And this is just me speculating, but I think given the nature of friendship and commercial working relationship between Abel and Jeff Bezos, I'm guessing there's probably a partnership there to work out. And we joke about this whole congratulations for what meme. Yeah, I think they're working closely together and it's quite symbiotic. So I wouldn't be surprised if if Kuiper does develop some type of partnership in the future with AST. Okay, let's see. Here's another one that's kind of out there. What do you think of data centers in space? I think there's a lot of problems with that idea. I think it could make sense given the cooling requirements of data centers and then also the amount of energy you're able to draw from something that's going to be out in space. I guess the issue is those things are huge and it's going to take a lot of, it's really expensive to put stuff in space, especially where if you have a data center in space, and I haven't looked at this idea very closely, but if you have a data center in space, you probably want to have it way, way up in well beyond geo, but you want it somewhere that's probably going to be fixed on the sun for its entirety. It's not, you know, some of these videos where it shows like this data center that's really close to Earth, like that's never going to happen. Because in LEO, that thing would just get demolished by different things that are flying around. And you'll need propulsion to keep that thing floating. But I think, and of course, since it's orbiting, it's going to— I think ideally, and again, I'm not an expert on this, but you probably want to have it in orbit that's really far out, that's going to be exposed to the sun. And getting to those orbits is really, really expensive. [01:06:29] Speaker B: Yeah. [01:06:30] Speaker A: You know, just for example, on a Falcon 9 or Falcon Heavy, if you want to get to like really far out geo type of orbits, then those are instances in a heavy payload. Those are instances where they, those boosters are expended. Like they don't bring them back because it's, it requires a lot of fuel. And once you're out there, then you're, those things are stuck and they just get rid of them. But yeah, I think data centers in space, like there's also some people talking about putting data centers on the moon. And so while I think these are like conceptually cool, interesting ideas, I think there's a lot of problems with them. But who knows, maybe, maybe they'll get solved. Okay, let me just see here. Here's, let's see, we're in an under-construction period. After we have 60 satellites in the sky, when will we see quarterly revenue? Well, we're going to see quarterly revenue. Guess what? This quarter. I forgot to cover it, I guess. Interestingly, as part of this offering, the company, of course, they pre-announced their cash balance and some of, but they didn't give any, typically they would give some level, like capsule level of pre-announced financials as part of this offering, but they didn't do it this time. And the reason why I think they didn't do that is because they want to surprise the market. That is, again, this is my own speculation, but this is going to be the first quarter of 2 quarters this year, 3rd quarter and 4th quarter, where the company had guided, as we all know, $50 to $75 million in revenue. So I think they're going to probably— they wanted to hold that information back for the quarterly call because it will be a seminal event, right? I think because getting a material amount of revenue from what the company characterizes as gateway sales, but then also military military work, I think it's going to be a great thing to talk about. And the market will, you know, you have all these clowns who post these charts that say, hey, these are the top market cap companies with no revenue today. And then AST, it was funny, I actually responded to one of those and I redid that chart where, yeah, AST doesn't have revenues today and it's got a $25 billion market cap. But as we all know, investors, value enterprises based off of future expectations, not on historical financial results, right? And so in that chart, AST got put together with like Oclo, you know, IonQ, some of these other companies. And I repopulated that chart with market cap, consensus research, 2030 revenue and EBITDA. And once you do that, the chart looks very different, right? Because AST in 2030 is expected to generate over, you know, $5.5 billion of EBITDA and over $6 billion of revenue versus like some of these quantum names that are going to do a few hundred million in revenue and maybe like $100 million EBITDA in 2030. So, so yeah, they're, they're, yeah, I get it. Company doesn't generate revenues today. That's going to change this coming quarter. And when looking out in the future, they're one of these, you know, it's like the old Sesame Sesame Street little skit they would do where they'd show like 4 kids in a box and then, or in boxes and one kid would be, or 3 kids would be jump roping and one kid might be eating a sandwich. It's like one of these is not like the other. And yeah, AST SpaceMobile is not like the others on that chart. It is projected to do a substantial amount. I mean, just have probably one of the most historic levels of revenue growth and profitability If they execute, then that this market is overseeing, right? And so there were some other companies on there like that. I told Tut this, gave him my tip of the hat that Aurora, like QuantumScape, and who was the other one? Like Joby. They actually have pretty good looking financial projections, right, for 2030 relative to their market caps. And so Funny enough, like Tut owns all the attractive ones on that chart. So anyway, but yeah, that is my plug for Tut. He's King Tut is a is a great follow. Let's see if there's any other questions here. I think that's it. I hope you guys can hear me. Someone said that it sounded like I was cutting off. I don't see. Didn't get any messages suggesting that. People can hear me, so I hope you guys can hear me. But anyway, maybe I'll just wrap it up there. But yeah, an exciting day. I am going to go try to find that Iridium quote, which I think is probably kind of the— maybe it's an example of the industry and it's kind of a data or signal point of where we are. I'll try to find that Matt Dash quote and I'll tweet it out. But yeah, like I said before, times are changing and you want to be on the right side of history. And I think being an investor in AST SpaceMobile, the future is bright. And over the next few weeks and months, there's going to be just a landslide of catalysts that are coming. And so I truly did mean it. Like when the company announced this convertible offering, like it just made me way more bullish. And yeah, there's some like, there's some volatility in hedging and of course, you know, the entire market and some of these frothy names sold off. But I'm bullish. I'm bullish. I bought more. I'm looking forward to the next few weeks. I was down in my portfolio several million dollars from the top, and that's fine. Like I'm not sweating it whatsoever. So anyway, I hope this is helpful. Look to connect again soon. And yeah, keep your eyes peeled. I think, I think there's going to be some big news coming. So take care, everyone. Thanks for listening to the AST SpaceMobile Podcast. If you enjoyed this episode and you'd like to help support the podcast, please share it with others, post about it on social media, or leave a rating and review. To catch all the latest news about AST SpaceMobile, make sure to subscribe. Thanks again, and I'll see you next time. [01:12:53] Speaker B: We're doing something very, very big, and I think with this technology we can really affect a billion lives. AST SpaceMobile is the only company that has proven technology to deliver cellular broadband connectivity directly from space to the everyday smartphone. People will just basically turn on their phone and be seamless regardless of where you are. We don't want the user to have to worry about the network. You need to even to know that it's connected by satellite. Our role is to bring this into reality, always in partnership with the NMOs. Listen. [01:13:39] Speaker A: Mmm, waffles.
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