Episode

Anpanman - North American Lockdown: The AST SpaceMobile Competitive Advantage

2026-03-05 38:17 Anpanman

Solo host Anpanman recaps a wave of Mobile World Congress announcements for AST SpaceMobile, centering on Telus's new definitive commercial agreement in Canada. He says that deal locks up roughly two-thirds of the North American market when combined with AT&T, Verizon, and Bell Canada.

He also walks through a fresh EchoStar/Boost Mobile 10-K disclosure implying Starlink and T-Mobile likely split economics 80/20 in Starlink's favor, and contrasts that with AST's 50/50 MNO-partner model.

He explains the satellite 'stacking' design behind upcoming BlueBird 7 and batch-6 launches. His headline conclusion: AST's cooperative-partner economics and technology lead are tipping the North American and Latin American markets decisively toward AST over Starlink.

Key Takeaways

  • Telus, Canada's third-largest wireless carrier, signed a definitive commercial agreement with AST SpaceMobile (announced the evening before this episode), investing in ground infrastructure and taking an equity stake, which Anpanman says means AST now has AT&T, Verizon, Bell Canada, and Telus locked up, covering roughly two-thirds of the most profitable (North American) telecom market.
  • Rogers, Canada's largest carrier, went with Starlink instead of AST.
  • AST also signed Axion Telecom, described as the 6th-largest African mobile operator with about 43 million subscribers, announced the same day as this episode.
  • A newly surfaced EchoStar 10-K disclosure about its Boost Mobile subsidiary's Starlink deal shows Boost gets service at cost for its first 10 million customers, then an 80% Starlink / 20% Boost economic split beyond that, plus a most-favored-nation (MFN) clause; because T-Mobile is the only other US MNO using Starlink, Anpanman concludes by MFN logic that T-Mobile's deal with Starlink is also roughly 80/20 in Starlink's favor, despite T-Mobile contributing nationwide 1900 MHz PCS G-block spectrum.
  • AST SpaceMobile's model reportedly gives MNO partners a 50/50 revenue split and positions AST as a cooperative partner rather than a direct competitor, since AST doesn't bear customer acquisition, billing, or support costs the way a direct-to-consumer competitor would.
  • T-Mobile's exclusivity arrangement with Starlink is set to end this coming summer (2026), per Anpanman.
  • AST's BlueBird satellites use a novel 'stacking' design where the satellite buses themselves serve as the support structure in the rocket fairing (like stacked cans), which Anpanman estimates saves roughly 1,000-1,500 kg versus needing a separate latticework structure for 6-7 satellites at about 4,200 kg each, potentially allowing an extra satellite per launch and lowering per-unit launch costs.
  • Anpanman expects AST to have effectively locked up the Brazilian market via partnerships with Vivo (Telefónica, 38% share), Claro (América Móvil, 33% share), and TIM Brazil (Telecom Italia subsidiary, 23% share), covering close to 100% of that market.
  • In Mexico, Anpanman expects AST to end up with América Móvil (~67% share) and AT&T Mexico (~18% share), which together would represent a majority of the market, while Movistar (a Telefónica/Pegaso PCS joint venture, ~16.5% share) may go to Starlink.
  • Anpanman personally expects the stock to break above $120-$130 and hit a new all-time high before the BlueBird 7 launch, explicitly framed as his personal, non-financial-advice opinion.

Detailed Discussion10 topics

Telus definitive agreement and North American market lockup

4
  • Anpanman Confirmed 00:00:27

    Big news announced last night was that Telus, described as the third-largest wireless carrier in Canada (Anpanman phrases it as 'second only to Bell Canada and of course Rogers'), signed a definitive commercial agreement with AST SpaceMobile, investing in ground infrastructure and taking an equity stake.

  • Anpanman Speculation 00:00:27

    Anpanman speculates Telus most likely already has or will buy its equity stake on the open market rather than through a direct capital raise, since he believes the company doesn't need additional capital at this point and probably won't pursue further strategic convertible debt deals like the earlier ones with Verizon, AT&T, Vodafone, and Google.

  • Anpanman Confirmed 00:00:27

    Rogers, Canada's largest carrier, instead went with Starlink, which Anpanman characterizes as a 'minimal viable product.' Bell Canada has an unannounced agreement with AST and was an early investor in the company.

  • Anpanman Speculation 00:00:27

    With Telus added to AT&T, Verizon, and Bell Canada, Anpanman says AST has now 'locked up two-thirds of the most profitable market in the world' — North America, primarily the US (AT&T/Verizon) and Canada (Bell/Telus) — and expects this partnership pattern to repeat globally.

Mobile World Congress partnership wave

6
  • Anpanman Confirmed 00:00:27

    This week's MNO news includes Vodafone Ukraine (a separate entity that retains the Vodafone name), Vodafone Romania, Vodafone Ireland, and Vodafone Three (the newly merged UK carrier combining Vodafone and CK Hutchison's Three, now the largest UK operator).

  • Anpanman Confirmed 00:00:27

    Starlink is active in Ukraine via Kyivstar and has reportedly connected around 10 million customers there, illustrating satellite direct-to-device value when terrestrial infrastructure is destroyed by war; Anpanman expects Vodafone Ukraine/AST testing to demonstrate the same resiliency use case.

  • Anpanman Confirmed 00:00:27

    Also announced: Sunrise Telecom (Switzerland) and Taiwan Mobile, the latter framed around resiliency/redundancy during natural disasters for Taiwan specifically.

  • Anpanman Confirmed 00:00:27

    Axion Telecom, covering key African markets and described as the 6th-largest mobile operator in Africa with about 43 million subscribers, was announced as a new partner today.

  • Anpanman Company Guidance 00:00:27

    Anpanman notes many of AST's ~50 global MOUs are becoming public/definitive now simply because the company is getting closer to commercial service, and references a GSMA-linked presentation slide hinting at roughly 30 new partnerships expected this year.

  • Anpanman Confirmed 00:00:27

    AST also received a Deutsche Bank upgrade the same day, which Anpanman says is contributing to the stock's move.

Satellite Connect Europe (Vodafone JV) and European spectrum

6
  • Anpanman Speculation 00:00:27

    Anpanman expects Satellite Connect Europe (the AST/Vodafone European JV) to expand its ownership, guessing Telefónica, Orange, and other European carriers will invest for both an equity stake and a revenue-split arrangement, partly to strengthen the JV's position with European regulators.

  • Anpanman Confirmed 00:00:27

    Orange is an early backer of Europe's sovereign Iris2 satellite constellation project; Anpanman says that about one to two weeks before this episode, Orange and Deutsche Telekom publicly expressed doubts about Iris2 getting off the ground.

  • Anpanman Confirmed 00:00:27

    Anpanman states four of the top five European MNOs are backing Satellite Connect Europe, plus two or three more of the top ten (roughly 7-8 of the top 10 total), with Deutsche Telekom the notable holdout going with Starlink instead.

  • Anpanman Speculation 00:00:27

    FCC Chairman Brendan Carr has publicly said Europe should be careful not to hinder competition from US satellite companies; Anpanman notes this could also be read as support for Starlink's spectrum bid, but argues a 'best technology wins' standard would favor AST/Satellite Connect Europe since the underlying constellation, while a European-operated JV, is US-owned technology.

  • Anpanman Speculation 00:00:27

    Viasat reportedly holds a roughly 15x15 (Anpanman flags this figure as uncertain/approximate) MHz 2 GHz European spectrum allocation granted years ago that is now coming up for renewal; Viasat has mainly used it for aircraft connectivity and is losing fixed-wireless customers to Starlink, so Anpanman expects it will struggle to justify renewal.

  • Anpanman Speculation 00:00:27

    Anpanman frames the EU 2 GHz MSS spectrum outcome as likely a 'jump ball' between Starlink and Satellite Connect Europe, with a possible allocation to Iris2 only if that sovereign project ever gets off the ground.

Scotiabank bear thesis rebuttal

3
  • Anpanman Disagreement 00:00:27

    Anpanman calls out Scotiabank as the sole Wall Street bear on ASTS, saying the analyst turned negative around last September or October (Anpanman is uncertain which month) on the thesis that Starlink competition would cause AST to lose customers, and lowered the stock's price target.

  • Anpanman Speculation 00:00:27

    Anpanman claims that right after Scotiabank's negative note, AST signed the 10-year Saudi Telecom (stc) agreement ($175 million prepayment, minimum $1 billion of value) and the Verizon definitive commercial agreement — used as evidence the bearish thesis has been wrong, since AST has kept signing more customers rather than losing them.

  • Anpanman Speculation 00:00:27

    Anpanman speculates, as his own opinion, that the analyst went bearish partly due to influence from short sellers' commission business, given Scotia is a smaller Canadian broker.

Mexico market breakdown

4
  • Anpanman Confirmed 00:00:27

    Anpanman breaks down the Mexican wireless market: América Móvil (Carlos Slim's MNO) at about 67% share, AT&T Mexico at about 18%, Movistar (a joint venture of Pegaso PCS and Telefónica) at about 16.5%, and Altan, a wholesaler operating 700 MHz spectrum serving roughly 18 million subscribers in hard-to-reach areas on behalf of MNOs/MVNOs.

  • Anpanman Confirmed 00:00:27

    AST is already working with América Móvil in Brazil, and Anpanman notes a presentation this week showed the América Móvil logo on AST's coverage map for Mexico; Altan is currently testing with AST in Mexico. AT&T Mexico is presumed to be included given the broader AT&T relationship.

  • Anpanman Speculation 00:00:27

    Movistar's allegiance is unclear to Anpanman because Pegaso may control the entity despite Telefónica being a JV partner; he speculates Starlink may sign Movistar since Starlink has hinted at a Mexican carrier deal.

  • Anpanman Speculation 00:00:27

    Anpanman recalls Elon Musk once called Carlos Slim a 'drug dealer,' after which Slim canceled work with Starlink; Anpanman expects a formal América Móvil-AST commercial agreement in the near future, aided by Abel Avellan's Venezuelan heritage and AST's relationship with Adriana Cisneros (whose father was a DirecTV Latin America pioneer).

Brazil market breakdown

1
  • Anpanman Confirmed 00:00:27

    In Brazil, AST is working with Vivo (Telefónica's Brazilian brand, ~38% market share), Claro (América Móvil's Brazilian brand, ~33% share), and TIM Brazil (Telecom Italia's subsidiary, ~23% share) — together, Anpanman says, 'effectively 100%' of the Brazilian market is locked up.

Boost Mobile / EchoStar 10-K economics disclosure and the Starlink vs. AST commercial model

8
  • Anpanman Confirmed 00:00:27

    A newly surfaced EchoStar 10-K disclosure reveals Boost Mobile's (EchoStar subsidiary) Starlink deal terms: the first 10 million Boost customers get service at cost with no revenue split, and beyond that, the split is 80% Starlink / 20% Boost Mobile.

  • Anpanman Speculation 00:00:27

    Boost's contract includes a most-favored-nation (MFN) clause for US MNOs, meaning Starlink must give Boost the same or better terms as any other US MNO deal; since T-Mobile is the only other US carrier using Starlink, Anpanman concludes by MFN logic that Starlink and T-Mobile's actual split must also be roughly 80/20 in Starlink's favor.

  • Anpanman Speculation 00:00:27

    Anpanman calls this 'insane' given T-Mobile brought its own 1900 MHz PCS G-block spectrum (5x5 MHz, nationwide, mid-band) to the deal, yet reportedly gets only 20% of the economics.

  • Anpanman Confirmed 00:00:27

    Per Boost's contract, nothing precludes Starlink from directly competing for the carrier's own customers under its 'Starlink Mobile' brand; Anpanman is unsure whether the same lack-of-restriction applies to T-Mobile's contract.

  • Anpanman Speculation 00:00:27

    T-Mobile's exclusivity arrangement with Starlink is set to end this coming summer (2026); Anpanman guesses any competitive restrictions might also be removed once exclusivity expires.

  • Anpanman Speculation 00:00:27

    Anpanman speculates, as a guess, that T-Mobile CEO Mike Sievert's departure may be connected to having agreed to this economically unfavorable Starlink deal.

  • Anpanman Company Guidance 00:00:27

    By contrast, Anpanman describes AST's model as a 50/50 revenue split with MNO partners, positioning AST as a true cooperative partner rather than a direct competitor: AST has little to no customer acquisition, billing, or support cost since the MNO owns the brand, marketing, billing, and customer relationship.

  • Anpanman Speculation 00:00:27

    Anpanman predicts some early Starlink-adopting carriers will come to view their deals as a 'Faustian bargain' — good short-term optics but bad long-term economics as Starlink both takes the lion's share of revenue and can compete directly for their customers.

SpaceX/xAI merger and competitive posture

3
  • Anpanman Confirmed 00:00:27

    SpaceX has merged with xAI, which Anpanman says is burning roughly $1 billion a month on data centers and AI training, potentially diverting SpaceX's resources and focus into the AI 'knife fight' with OpenAI, Google, and Anthropic rather than space communications alone.

  • Anpanman Speculation 00:00:27

    Anpanman personally prefers AST's focused, 'clean' story — a single constellation serving dual-use commercial direct-to-device and government/military use cases (comms, radar sensing, GPS, electronic warfare/jamming) — versus what he views as SpaceX/xAI's more diversified, dilution-heavy combined bet.

  • Anpanman Speculation 00:00:27

    Anpanman expects some carriers globally to work with both AST and Starlink in different geographies or use cases (citing Telefónica and Globe Telecom as examples), viewing the market as a likely duopoly rather than winner-take-all, though he believes the balance of scale will tip toward AST.

BlueBird satellite 'stacking' design and launch economics

3
  • Anpanman Confirmed 00:00:27

    AST's BlueBird satellites are designed to stack directly on each other in the rocket fairing (Anpanman's analogy: stacked cans, or Lego blocks), with the satellite buses themselves acting as the support structure, rather than requiring a separate latticework/support structure.

  • Anpanman Speculation 00:00:27

    Anpanman estimates that without this stacking design, supporting 6-7 BlueBird satellites (each about 4,200 kg) would require an additional 1,000-1,500 kg of support structure weight; saving that weight allows an extra satellite to fit in some fairings, substantially lowering per-unit launch cost.

  • Anpanman Speculation 00:00:27

    Anpanman attributes recent manufacturing delays to challenges perfecting the new composite stacking design, consistent with AST's 'succeed the first time, succeed every time' engineering approach rather than an iterate-through-failure approach.

Upcoming launch timeline and stock outlook

5
  • Anpanman Speculation 00:00:27

    Anpanman guesses the BlueBird 7 launch on Blue Origin's New Glenn will be scheduled 'any day now,' likely happening in the 3rd or 4th week of March 2026, though he frames this explicitly as his own guess pending official scheduling.

  • Anpanman Speculation 00:00:27

    Anpanman says the company appears on track to ship its first batch of 6 satellites to Cape Canaveral in 'under 27 days' or sometime over the course of April 2026, and speculates this batch could fly as a stack of 6 on New Glenn 4 (which currently has no other scheduled payloads) or alternatively as two separate Falcon 9 launches of 3 satellites each.

  • Anpanman Speculation 00:00:27

    Anpanman expects that batch to launch within roughly 2-3 weeks after shipment to Cape Canaveral.

  • Anpanman Speculation 00:00:27

    As his personal opinion, not financial advice, Anpanman expects the stock to break above $120-$130 and set a new all-time high before the BlueBird 7 launch.

  • Anpanman Speculation 00:00:27

    Anpanman says he is also watching for further Golden Dome-related developments, specifically around the MDA Shield program and what he refers to as the 'Noble program' (name stated with some uncertainty in the transcript).

Watch Items6

  • BlueBird 7 launch via Blue Origin New Glenn

    Guessed 3rd or 4th week of March 2026 (unconfirmed scheduling) Anpanman 00:00:27
  • First batch shipment of 6 satellites to Cape Canaveral, followed by launch (possibly a stack of 6 on New Glenn 4, or two Falcon 9 launches of 3 each)

    Under ~27 days from recording, or over the course of April 2026; launch expected ~2-3 weeks after shipment Anpanman 00:00:27
  • Potential América Móvil (Mexico) definitive commercial agreement

    Expected 'at some point in the near future' Anpanman 00:00:27
  • ~30 additional global MNO partnerships hinted via a GSMA-linked presentation slide

    Expected over the course of this year (2026) Anpanman 00:00:27
  • Golden Dome-related contract developments (MDA Shield, and a program Anpanman refers to as the 'Noble program')

    Ongoing / upcoming, no specific date given Anpanman 00:00:27
  • Stock breaking above $120-$130 to a new all-time high

    Anpanman expects this before the BlueBird 7 launch Anpanman 00:00:27

Open Questions5

  • Will Movistar in Mexico (the Pegaso PCS/Telefónica joint venture) end up partnering with AST or Starlink, given Pegaso may control the entity despite Telefónica's JV stake?

    Anpanman 00:00:27
  • Exactly how will Telus's 'equity stake' in AST be structured — open-market share purchases versus a direct investment — since the company reportedly doesn't need additional capital?

    Anpanman 00:00:27
  • Will European regulators award 2 GHz MSS spectrum to Satellite Connect Europe, to Starlink/EchoStar, split between them, or partly to the Iris2 sovereign project, and at what bandwidth (5x5 vs. 10x10)?

    Anpanman 00:00:27
  • Will Viasat succeed in renewing its roughly 15x15 MHz European 2 GHz spectrum allocation given its customer losses to Starlink fixed wireless?

    Anpanman 00:00:27
  • Do T-Mobile's Starlink contract terms include the same lack of competitive restriction found in Boost Mobile's contract, and will any such restrictions disappear once T-Mobile's exclusivity with Starlink ends this summer?

    Anpanman 00:00:27

Raw Transcript

Show full transcript
[00:00:06] Speaker A: This is the AST SpaceMobile Podcast. It will just basically come to your phone and be seamless regardless of where you are. We don't want the user even to know that it's connected by satellite. Listen, the opportunity that we have is very, very, very large.
[00:00:27] Speaker B: Hey everyone, thanks for joining on what is a tremendous day for ASD Space Mobile. As many of you have probably seen, and I've reposted a number of these announcements, but the company is firing on all cylinders, signing up these new partnerships, which are primarily memorandums of understanding. However, a new definitive commercial agreement was announced yesterday. And so I'm going to talk a bit about that and cover a few other topics of note. But yeah, I think we're setting up for, I tweeted earlier, I think we're setting up for a very bullish setup here. You've got launch that's going to get scheduled any day now for Blue Origin New Glenn, Bluebird 7. My guess is that it's going to happen sometime in the 3rd or 4th week of this month. Hopefully that will be enough time for everyone to schedule their travel and find accommodations to go view that launch. I may or may not be there because our kids actually have spring break and we're trying to figure out some of those plans. And maybe we can plan to go down there, but we need some additional advance notice. And it seems like the company might be announcing something Somewhat last minute, but but yeah, exciting time. Hopefully I can make it down, but if not, of course I'll be watching online and and maybe we'll run a space as well. But but yeah, let's kind of go through the list of items here. I mean, so MNO partnerships this week we heard news from Satellite Connect Europe, which is the joint venture between AST and Vodafone. I think that joint venture is going to expand. in terms of economics. My guess is that Telefónica, Orange, and some of these other European carriers, they probably will make some type of investment into that JV and then get economics in return at the ownership level in addition to revenue splits. That's what I would expect. And I think for a European project, you probably need to have additional carrier ownership, MNO ownership, in order to look Well positioned in front of European regulators. The other thing there is that, funny enough, Orange is one of the early backers of the Iris 2 project out of Europe, which is the the you know Europe is trying to build their own sovereign constellation, and I think it was a week or two ago Orange and Deutsche Telekom expressed doubts. about that getting off the ground. And so like I said before, I think Satellite Connect Europe is very well positioned to get 2 GHz MSS spectrum in Europe. And when you've got 4 of the top 5 European MNOs backing it, and then you've got an additional probably 2 or 3 out of the top 10, so call it 7 to 8 of the top 10, Outside of Deutsche Telekom, which is you know they're they're going with Starlink. I think it's gonna be really hard for European regulators to justify not giving spectrum to satellite connect Europe. And we've seen Brendan Carr publicly announce that Europe should be very careful in terms of not hindering competition from U.S. satellite companies. And I think you know some might. Might say that that's trying to help Starlink get positioned for a 2 GHz spectrum allocation, which I think they should get some allocation. Will that be 5x5, 10x10? Who knows? And of course, they're going to try to pursue that spectrum through the existing EchoStar allocation. But that also helps us because the Satellite Connect Europe, it is a European entity. It's owned and operated by Europeans, but ultimately the underlying Constellation is owned by AST SpaceMobile, which is a US company. And so having a level playing field and making sure that the best technology is granted spectrum is key, right? And so if that's truly the case where the best technology is going to get a spectrum allocation, then I feel 100% confident and fully comfortable with going head-to-head with Starlink and whoever else out there, which at this point, it's It's Starlink and EchoStar. Of course, it's Viasat, Inmarsat. I mean, who knows what they're doing? My guess is, for those that haven't followed it closely, Europe gave Viasat a 2 GHz spectrum allocation. I think it's 15 by 15 many years ago, and that's coming up for renewal. And Viasat, for all intents and purposes, I think they've utilized that spectrum primarily for Aircraft connectivity, but obviously Viasat is losing customers hand over fist to Starlink fixed wireless. And so they're gonna have a pretty tough time, I think, justifying getting a new allocation in Europe. And so I think it's really gonna be a jump ball between Starlink and ASD SpaceMobile's Satellite Connect. And then perhaps there might be an allocation given to this IRIS project if they can ever get it off the ground. So yeah, I mean, I think Mobile World Congress just demonstrates the company's support amongst MNOs. I know Scotiabank, who's the sole bear on the street, wrote several or has been writing bearish reports saying that AST SpaceMobile is going to lose customers to Starlink, which has not been the case. If anything, AST has been signing more customers and signing more definitive agreements. I remember, and this is the research analyst who turned to bearish after getting flipped by a bunch of short sellers because of course the almighty commission dollar sometimes is too hard to ignore, especially for a smaller investment bank like Scotia who is a Canadian broker and kind of trying to scrap by, I guess. But back in, I guess it was last October, maybe it was September when Scotia went negative on the company and came out with a negative rating and lowered their stock price target on the assumption that Starlink's competition was going to be too much and they were going to steal customers. Right after he published that note, of course, we signed with Saudi Telecom for a 10-year commercial agreement, $175 million prepayment, minimum $1 billion of value. We signed to that. And of course Verizon signed the definitive commercial agreement as well. And so this guy keeps tooting that horn that the competition is going to be too much for AST. And since then, of course, we've signed all these additional customers. So it's just kind of funny just seeing this guy desperately try to drive the price down and the opposite's happening. But going back to the MNO partnerships, as I mentioned in the call before, we've got Vodafone Ukraine, which is actually not part of Vodafone. It's a separate entity. They just continue to keep the Vodafone name. And obviously, you know, Starlink's very active with, I think it's KivaStar in Ukraine, but given how war-torn that country is, that's going to be a model for satellite connectivity because obviously a lot of the terrestrial infrastructure has been destroyed. And so what better way to light up spectrum and connect customers than utilizing satellite direct-to-device connectivity? And so for Starlink and for AST, it's going to be a great market to demonstrate the technology. And you could kind of view it as in a case where a terrestrial network goes down in an emergency or war situation, natural disaster, you could point to Ukraine and say, well, this is what it looks like when the infrastructure's destroyed and people are connecting. And so I think it was Starlink, they announced a while back that they've connected like 10 million customers in Ukraine. And so it just shows like the power of this technology beyond just filling in dead spots, but actually becoming the network when the network is down. And so I think that's important. But we did, we saw additional partnership and testing with Vodafone Romania, Vodafone Ireland, Vodafone Three, which is the new UK carrier, which combined two of the largest UK operators, Vodafone and then CK Hutchison's Three. And so that's now the largest carrier in the UK. We also saw Sunrise Telecom out of Switzerland, Taiwan Mobile, which I covered the other day about how it's not just about filling in dead spots, but it's about resiliency, redundancy during national disasters, hopefully not armed conflicts, but for specifically Taiwan, satellite direct-to-device connectivity is going to be absolutely critical. And then today we did get a new partnership that was announced. And by the way, like a lot of these partnerships have been kind of in the background, but now because we are getting closer to commercialization, now they're being inked and, you know, becoming, you know, what was part of the 50 global MNOs that we had MOUs with, now they're becoming more public because we're getting closer to service, right? And so we just signed today With Axion Telecom out of Africa. They cover a number of countries, key markets in Africa, which is I think 43 million subscribers. And so a really big— I think they're the 6th largest mobile operator in Africa. And so another great win. But the big news, which I think is causing the stock to move quite a bit today, and of course, we did get this Deutsche Bank upgrade, but big news last night was TELUS. Right, and so TELUS is the 3rd largest wireless carrier out of Canada. They're second only to Bell Canada and of course Rogers. And so for those people that know, Rogers decided to go with the Starlink and I guess they enjoy the minimal viable product, whereas Bell Canada and TELUS have gone with AST SpaceMobile. And so we do know, it hasn't been publicly announced yet, but Bell Canada does have an agreement with AST and they were an early investor in the company. And then TELUS, which was announced last evening, they signed a definitive commercial agreement. And so, you know, they're investing in ground infrastructure and then they're taking an equity stake, right? And so some people have asked, well, what form of equity does that mean? Are they going to buy shares directly from the company? I think that's probably not the case because the company doesn't need capital at this point. My guess is that TELUS either already has or will just buy stock on the open market. And, you know, they'll, who knows how much they'll buy exactly, but, you know, they want to be aligned with the company. And so, you know, the company previously did strategic convertible debt with investors like Verizon, AT&T, and Vodafone and Google. I don't think the company's going to pursue that path anymore because they candidly don't need capital. And so for a company like TELUS, they probably already have bought a stake, or maybe they will buy a stake, but they can just buy those shares on the open market, right? But as I tweeted yesterday, this is a pretty big milestone because we now have locked up 2/3 of the most profitable market in the world, right? Which is North America, primarily the US, AT&T and Verizon. And then of course Canada, which is Bell Canada and Telus. And so I think this model is actually going to carry throughout the rest of the world. And I'll talk about like 2 specific markets where I can already show you the template, like that is already happening or will happen. But yeah, I think that's going to be, and part of it is of course, you know, We've talked about this at length, but the fact that AST is actually a strategic cooperative partner with MNOs versus Starlink, which is a direct competitor today and will become even a bigger competitor in the future. And on top of that, Starlink gives pretty bad economics, which I'll talk about more, talk in a bit more later. But yeah, so locking up the North American market, I know some people pointed out like, hey, Mexico's part of North America. Well, I kind of in this analysis considered Mexico as part of Central America. I know that's like, that's a bit of a nuance, but let's talk about Mexico. So if we want to say North American market majority, let's see. So America, Mexico, American Mobile has like 67% market share there. That's Carlos Slim's MNO. AT&T Mexico, which is owned by Mexico, or AT&T has 18%. And then Movistar, which is a joint venture between Pegaso PCS and Telefónica, that has 16.5%. And then Altan, which is a wholesaler that runs 700 MHz spectrum in Mexico, they, on behalf of MNOs, MVNOs, they, to hard-to-reach places, I think they serve like 18 million subscribers. So there's a few ways to kind of cut the the Mexican market up in pieces. But I guess the mainline MNOs, not virtual network operators who rent space on other infrastructure, those are the big 3, right? American Mobile, AT&T Mexico, Movistar, and then Altan, which is a wholesaler. And when we talk about MNOs versus MVNOs, the key difference is that MNOs are facilities-based. Like they actually own towers, they own the spectrum, They do billing and all that stuff. And then MVNOs are virtual operators. Like they are really a marketing brand, kind of like Mint Mobile here in the US. They actually lease capacity on other people's networks. And so these are the key facility operators. And I can tell you like AST is already working with American Mobile in Brazil, which I'll talk a bit in a bit, or talk more in a bit. But they're already working with Carlos Slim, right? And so we did see a little preview in a presentation this week where the América Móvil logo was on AST's coverage map covering Mexico. Of course, AT&T Mexico, we're probably working with them because it's AT&T. And then Movistar is kind of a, it's unclear, right? Because I think Pagaso might have kind control of that entity, although Telefonica is a joint venture partner. So that one maybe goes to Starlink because I know Starlink had hinted that they're going to sign someone up in Mexico. And so that could be it, or it could be one of these smaller MVNOs, right? But if you assume that American Mobile, AT&T Mexico go with AST, that's pretty much the Mexican market. That's 67% plus, let me see here. Yeah, 18%. Right. So they're gonna, you're gonna have a majority and of course you have Altan as well. So yeah, North American market I think would be pretty much locked up by AST and I would expect to see, you know, some commercial agreements being announced relatively soon. As we know, Altan is testing with AST currently in Mexico and then American Mobile, you know, famously, I think it was Elon Musk, who claimed that Carlos Slim was a drug dealer. And then Carlos Slim responded by saying he was never going to— he canceled any work they were doing with Starlink and would never work with him. People can, I guess, they can bury the hatchet and decide to work together, but we have been working with América Móvil for quite some time. And so I would expect that commercial agreement to happen at some point in the near future. And this is where in this part of the world, this is where Abel's Venezuelan heritage and then of course working with Cisneros, who has, Adriana Cisneros, her father was a huge pioneer of Dish or sorry, DirecTV Latin America and having their media assets there. They have a tremendous amount of relationships. And so that's helped AST quite a bit in that part of the world. And so But yeah, I think Mexico will be locked up. And then moving on to, let's talk about Brazil. I mean, so we currently are working with Vivo, which is Telefónica in Brazil. They have 38% of the market. We already have a partnership with Claro, which is América Móvel. That's their, they own that brand, 33% of the market. And then we are working with Telecom Italia's subsidiary in Brazil, TIM Brazil, which is 23%. So in Brazil, we actually have Effectively 100% locked on that market. And so as I said before, I think as you go around the world and as carriers start signing up for service and they see where the value is, where true broadband connectivity is there and working with a partner that's working truly with you, not against you, and that's sharing fair economics, I think KST is going to be the partner of choice, right? And so We have the US locked down, we have Canada, it seems like we have Mexico, we definitely have Brazil. And that will continue, I think, in the coming months as we see— I think there was a slide that was hinted in one of these presentations by the GSMA, I think, organization or something like that, saying that AC has 30 partnerships coming this year. So yeah, it'll be fun to count those off as they come in. Let's see. So yeah, that that covers the partnership side. Actually, I don't have too much time to talk because I need to go move my car outside because there's the snow is thawing here in in New York, and so I parked out on the street, and I need to do that before before before I get a ticket. But I did want to cover a few more things real quick. So yesterday someone had Astutely gone through EchoStar's 10-K, and a great nugget was found there, which was the economic, the actual deal terms between EchoStar's Boost Mobile subsidiary, which is a semi-MVNO, semi-MNO, but their economic split and deal that they got with Starlink. And so there were some like Slight nuances in there. I won't go into too much detail. I actually need to go through that agreement with a fine-tooth comb. But some of the key terms were that I think the first 10 million customers for Boost, they would get the service at cost, right, for Boost. And so they wouldn't have to split economics essentially. But then beyond the first 10 million, the economic split would be 80% Starlink and 20% Boost Mobile. Which is pretty crazy because that's not really giving the carrier much in terms of economics. And so you could say, well, oh yeah, it's Boost Mobile. You know, who cares? Like it's a small two-bit player. Like why does that matter? Well, in the contract, they Boost actually gets an MFN. And so what MFN means is most favorable nation. And so when you enter into a contract and give someone most favorable nation terms, you might agree to let's just make something up. Let's say a fifty-fifty split, right? I'll give you fifty percent. Keep 50%. And then because of that MFN, if I go negotiate with Cook Telecom and I give them, hey, you know what? I really want you to come on board. I'll give you 60% of the economics and I'll just take 40%. Well, what that MFN does is because you have most favorable nation clause, then whatever I agree with them, if it's better than the deal that I gave you, I automatically have to give you the same exact deal. And so that's how MFNs work. And so the key nugget in this disclosure is that Boost Mobile has an MFN. And so based off of that, you can— and it's an MFN for US MNOs, right? And so there's only one other MNO in the US that's using Starlink, which is T-Mobile, right? And so from a legal perspective, that basically Because Boost is getting the best possible deal and no deal can be better than them, that means that Starlink and T-Mobile agreed to an 80/20 split where Starlink is getting 80% of the economics and T-Mobile's getting 20%, which is to me insane, right? Because T-Mobile actually is letting Starlink use their 1900 MHz PCS G-block spectrum. So they actually brought spectrum to the table. And it's small, it's like 5 by 5 megahertz, but still it's nationwide spectrum and yeah, it's mid-band, but they're allowing Starlink to use that exclusively. But yet they're only getting 20% economics, which is crazy, right? And maybe there's like some threshold where they get most of the economics for the first 20 or 30, 20 million, 10 million subscribers. But the fact that that 80/20 split there, to me, that's like such a lopsided deal. And you would only take that deal if you were desperate, right? And so that's why I tweeted yesterday where I think T-Mobile, because they saw that AT&T was working with AST SpaceMobile, when Starlink came to them and said, hey, we want to do this and these are the terms, T-Mobile was like, oh, you know what? We can be the first to do this. We can pretend that we're the first to do this and we're going to work with Starlink. They've got this great brand. We're just going to sign up. And so yeah, we'll do 80/20. you take 80%, we'll take 20%, even though we're bringing the spectrum and we're bringing the customers. Because maybe in their mind they thought that this is a niche product and it wasn't going to bring much in terms of revenue and it'll solidify their customer base and reduce churn. And so they justified it somehow. But yeah, this disclosure by Boost Mobile basically says T-Mobile got the same deal, 80/20. And so That's a really bad deal because economically, as this thing grows over time, you're just giving away more economics and your customers to Starlink. And so the other interesting thing about the deal with Boost, and I don't know if this exists in T-Mobile, but nothing precludes Starlink from competing to get your customer for what is branded as Starlink Mobile. And so Starlink has the ability to compete with you in the future, and there's no restrictions on that. And so maybe it's just for Boost Mobile, and maybe there's like some additional restrictions with T-Mobile. But as a reminder, like T-Mobile, that agreement in terms of exclusivity ends this coming summer. And my guess is that if there were any types of restrictions around competition, maybe those get removed too with exclusivity expiring. So So yeah, T-Mobile, I don't understand. Maybe this is why Mike Sievert got pushed out, like he agreed to a bad deal. But for all intents and purposes, Starlink, they've now branded it Starlink Mobile. It's clear Elon will say like, hey, we're not getting into that business. But in reality, everyone knows they're going to get into it, right? They're going to compete directly with MNOs. They've bought spectrum here. It's mid-band spectrum, so it's good for capacity, but it's not good for coverage. But Who's to say they won't try to work out an MVNO agreement with T-Mobile and then try to go into the business directly themselves, right? But I think it's an important distinction for these companies that are working with Starlink around the world. Like, they're probably getting something like 80/20. And for those companies that are working with Starlink, you can kind of view it as a desperate move. Whereas AST SpaceMobile is truly working as a partner. AST is working in the background. You know, it's like your brand, your marketing, your customer, your billing, your support, which is the beauty of the model, right? Like in terms of fixed costs, AST has little to none in terms of touching the customer. They don't have to go acquire customers. They don't have to keep them. They don't have to do all these things. That's for the M&O, right? But then in exchange for all that, we'll give you 50% of the economics. We'll keep 50%. But I think that's an important distinction where, you know, some of these early adopters for Starlink over time, they're going to find out that they made a Faustian bargain. Faustian bargain meaning like, you know, you sold your soul to the devil to get like something quick and easy upfront, but then over the long run, some bad things are going to happen, right? Unintended consequences. You thought it was good, but in fact you got on in the deal. So that was a really big disclosure yesterday. I don't think the media has covered it yet, and maybe some Space Mob members can share the specific economics of this, because I think it's something that more of the media should see and also the industry. But yeah, I think for a company like T-Mobile, At the end of this, they're going to find out that they've created a competitor who's taken some of their customers because you have to think about it this way, right? Like people know the brand Starlink. Starlink is a direct-to-consumer organization. They sell fixed wireless service to consumers. And so they have to spend money on marketing. They have to go acquire consumers. And so for Starlink, it makes a ton of sense. It's like, hey, we're already spending a lot of money on our brand and to go acquire customers. Why don't we create our own mobile brand as well. And so we can offer mobile broadband service in non-dense areas and then we'll perhaps enter into an MVNO agreement and lease T-Mobile's network for the coverage aspects that we need, right? And they could do that globally. They could go to each market and try to— MVNOs, to an extent, some are shorter-sighted and will enter into MVNO agreements to enable a competitor like that. But hats off to Starlink. That's a great strategy and it's not what AST's pursuing. And I think the other thing, as we see some of these announcements out of Mobile World Congress, some of these carriers are going to work with both companies, right? Like in certain geographies, they might choose Starlink, in other geographies, they might use AST SpaceMobile, right? And so Telefónica, it could be an example like that where They don't have this constraint anymore because Vodafone sold its Spanish business, and so exclusivity's not there. But in certain markets where AST, and these are rare, but if there's exclusive rights to it, then perhaps other companies or subsidiaries have to actually use Starlink by default. So Telefónica, we can work with Telefónica all throughout South America. In Europe, that's somewhat constrained because of Vodafone's exclusivity. However, That's changing with the fact that Vodafone has opened it up. It's like, hey, if you guys join Satellite Connect Europe, then that exclusivity goes away. But again, you're going to see some of these countries, these countries and both companies in different capacities. And of course, that includes fixed wireless versus satellite to device wireless. But that shouldn't be a surprise to anyone, right? We're still at early stages. And one example is Globe Telecom. I think is working with Starlink right now initially, but then they still have a partnership agreement with AST SpaceMobile. And so especially for some of these areas that have very large coverage areas, you might utilize the technology differently in different segments. And so that's something to keep in mind of where, again, I don't think it's like a zero-sum game where one carrier is gonna be winner-take-all, but it probably is gonna be a decent duopoly. And I think again, just given the competitive dynamics and the economics, I think it's going to be— and the technological lead, I think it's going to be, you know, the scale is going to tip for AST SpaceMobile. So, oh, and the other thing I would mention, which I think some folks have covered over the last week or two, I mean, the fact that SpaceX merged with xAI, which is burning a ton of cash, they've got to think about their business differently, right? And so it's not just about space communications or, you know, I guess it's now the mission to the moon or Mars, but it's also about fighting a turf war, like an absolute knife fight down here on Earth around artificial intelligence, right? And so burning $1 billion a month on building out data centers and training and all that, you know, all that stuff, it's going to change the competitive balance of where your resources are focused and what you're willing to do. And so of course, when SpaceX goes public, they're going to have access to capital and we'll see what the market, what levels of, I guess, acceptance the market is willing to give them for spending CapEx and relative to profitability. But with AST, you have a very clean story, right? Like it's a very straightforward, here's the constellation, this is what we're doing. It's dual use case for commercial side, direct-to-device connectivity for military connectivity, comms too, but then radar sensing, GPS, all these other things, electronic warfare, jamming. And then of course, having the patents and building blocks and production capacity to do other stuff in space, right? Whereas I think for SpaceX, it's, some people will like it. They'll like this diverse behemoth that's got all kinds of different things going on. But I don't know, at least it's just my personal preference. Like I want to have a more focused company. And I think in terms of dilution and profitability, you know, having to carry the water for something that is, you know, maybe it's a 3rd or 4th or 5th player in AI, but is trying to, you know, enter a knife fight with OpenAI, Google, Anthropic, that seems pretty daunting. But the payoff, you know, could be big, right? But I'd rather, you know, stay focused. Of course, you know, maybe tomorrow ABC goes out and merges with Anthropic and then I've got to change my tune. But that's, I highly, highly, highly doubt that's going to happen. So, but yeah, I think coming out of this, what an exciting setup. Like we've got Bluebird 7 that's going to launch this month. And then we've got our first batch shipment that's going to happen in April. And some people have asked, like, you know, why did it take so long? There's probably unforeseen, you know, with composites when you're building these things and then you just— and then you're going to have to stack them up to 8 on top of each other interfering, things are going to happen, right? Like you're going to find through that manufacturing process, you know, maybe some things that you're doing didn't come out as expected and you go back to the drawing board and do it again or do something different. And so it sounds like the company has got through that. You know, specifically they were talking about stacking and stacking for those people that don't know, typically when you launch satellites, you have to assemble them together in a fairing and make sure that they're safe and can go through vibration of a rocket and the tremendous amount of force. And, you know, all that stuff that happens when you launch into space and then you, so you have to carry them safely to space and then deploy them, right? But you can't leave like all this junk around. in space. And so AST, to optimize for the dollar spent on launch, they came up with this revolutionary design where they, the actual infrastructure that keeps them stacked are the buses themselves, right? And so you can imagine you go to the grocery store and you have these like tuna cans that are all stacked together. That's what AST has done, right? And so when I looked at some analysis of how many of these things can fit in a fairing of a rocket, If you needed the latticework, like the support structure to carry all these things, let's just say like, you know, 6 or 7 Bluebird satellites, then you would need, with which are, call it 4,200 kilograms each, you would probably need another 1,000 to 1,500 kilograms of weight to create a structure to support all those if they didn't, if they weren't built to stack on each other like Legos. But these things are actually built to stack on each other. And so you can, By saving that 1,000 to call it 2,000 kilograms of space, you can actually fit another satellite in some of these fairings. You can fit another satellite up for launch. And that's huge, right? In terms of your per unit costs. And so I think when the company talked about challenges of stacking, this is what they meant. And so if you stack these things and you're using a new composite design, sometimes you're going to maybe have a failure, right? where a design wasn't strong enough. And so you're gonna have to reinforce it. AST, this company, as I've talked about before, is a, you know, succeed the first time, succeed every time. Like, there's— they're not here to throw spaghetti at the wall and have things fail. It's a measure twice and cut once type of approach to development. And so it took a little more time. And now it seems like we are on track to send our first batch of 6 down to with Cape Canaveral in under, I guess it's like 27 days right now, or sometime over the course of April. Of course, sending 6 as a batch, what does that mean? Like, that could be, and I've talked about this before yesterday or the day before, but we might actually be scheduled to go on New Glenn 4, 'cause I don't think there's any payloads that are currently scheduled for the next New Glenn launch. And so we might actually see a stack of 6. go up on New Glenn, which would be pretty cool. Otherwise, we are going to be utilizing Falcon 9, and that would be 2 Falcon 9 launches for 2 batches of 3. So we'll see. But anyway, that's the quick update. I think as I had tweeted out earlier, whether you think things are priced in or not, or there's excitement, typically we see a ramp up into these launch events. And so I think the stock price is already kind of reflecting that now. And I think my personal opinion, not financial advice, but I think we'll definitely breach above $120, $130 perhaps, and hit a new all-time high before that Bluebird 7 launch. And then from that point on, it's, you know, who knows, right? Because I think, as I've mentioned before in previous instances, you kind of have like a pullback, but then at that same time, not And, you know, shortly after that launch, you're going to have that first shipment of 6 satellites down the tape, and those will launch within, what, a 2 to 3 week timeframe? And then it's going to keep going, right? And on top of that, maybe we get more of these partnership agreements or even better definitive commercial agreements falling into place. And then you've got Golden Dome awards, specifically, I'm looking forward to New developments around MDA Shield, and then of course the Noble program as well. And yeah, so there's there's a lot to look forward to. So anyway, that's all I had. I've got to hop now. I got to go move my car. So we'll catch up again later and look forward. You know, we we still have another day to go at Mobile World Congress, and so there might be more news from the company. But anyways, everyone take care, and we'll talk again soon.
[00:37:04] Speaker A: Bye. Thanks for listening to the AST SpaceMobile Podcast. If you enjoyed this episode and you'd like to help support the podcast, please share it with others, post about it on social media, or leave a rating and review. To catch all the latest news about AST SpaceMobile, make sure to subscribe. Thanks again, and I'll see you next time. I love doing something very, very big. And I think with this technology, we can really affect a billion lives. AST SpaceMobile is the only company that has proven technology to deliver cellular broadband connectivity directly from space to the everyday smartphone. People will just basically turn their phone and be seamless regardless of where you are. We don't want the user even to know that it's connected by satellite. Our role is to to bring this into reality, always in partnership with the animals. Listen. Mmm, waffles.

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