Anpanman - The SpaceMobile Moat: Engineering, IPOs, and the Path to Global Connectivity

[00:00:06] Speaker A: This is the AST SpaceMobile Podcast. It will just basically come to your phone and be seamless regardless of where you are. We don't want the user even to know that it's connected by satellite. Listen, the opportunity that we have is very, very, very large.
[00:00:25] Speaker C: Hey everyone, thanks for joining. It's been quite some time since I've done this space. I've been quite busy actually. One of our kids is in early spring break and then the other one goes on spring break next week. And so yeah, I had my hands full. But yeah, I wanted to touch base on ASD Space Mobile. I've seen some investors who seem quite frustrated at the delays and I wanted to talk about some of those delays and the reasons for it and why in the overall grand scheme of things it actually doesn't matter. But yeah, I wanted to do that and also talk a bit about some recent regulatory stuff that's been kicking around and then the SpaceX IPO, which I think is becoming more real by the day and is going to draw more interest into the sector. So let's start with Bluebird 7. So Bluebird 7, obviously we shipped that to the processing center at Blue Origin quite some time ago. And that satellite launch is pretty much out of the company's hands, right? Like any delays related to that are on the Blue Origin side. And understandably, Blue Origin is being very methodical and deliberate In terms of launching New Glenn 3 with the reused Never Tell Me the Odds booster. And so why that's important is that this is the first time that New Glenn is reusing a previously used booster. And so New Glenn, sorry, Blue Origin, they've taken that booster, they've gone through the process of refurbishing it, there's been complications, of course, as with any first-time process, you're going to make some mistakes and you're going to learn from them. And each time you do it, you're going to learn and get better, right? And that's the process of learning. And especially for space, where the margin for error is the difference between something successful and then something, you know, when you don't when you don't do things properly, uh, and they have, you know, um, unplanned disassemblies, uh, or, you know, something bad happened, um, then you're gonna, you're gonna focus on getting it right the first time every time.
[00:02:51] Speaker B: Right.
[00:02:52] Speaker C: And so that's the DNA that Blue Origin has. Um, it's not, they're not, they don't have the same approach as SpaceX where, um, SpaceX will, Rapidly iterate and throw spaghetti at the wall and see what works, learn and keep iterating to get to a point where, you know, you through multiple failures, you get to a point of success. Right. And so, so this, this New Glenn 3 mission is taking longer to get the, to make, you know, from their perspective, make sure that everything is at a point where they're satisfied and they think that there's a high level of success. And so that launch has been pushed back because of the booster refurbishment process, right? And so I think probably at this point we're looking at perhaps the first week or second week, maybe at latest of April. And so it actually kind of introduces interesting timing because that launch is going to happen probably around the same time as the first 1 or 2 batches of Bluebirds. Um, 8 and beyond get sent down to the Cape, right? And so, um, April is shaping up to be a very— will be a very, uh, interesting and busy month. Now moving on, um, so that's Bluebird 7, right? And so in the hands of Blue Origin, not much the company can do about it. Uh, we're waiting to see when New Glenn is going to launch. And, um, and yeah, we'll get a press release. One thing to watch out for is when New Glenn 3 gets rolled out to the launch pad for a static fire test. And so once that happens, um, you should see, you know, probably within a few days, um, there, there will be a, a launch date set that could happen within a few days or maybe at most a week. Um, and so for those that are planning, you your travel, just make sure that you book refundable flights and then of course don't pay for the hotel front. Make a reservation with your credit card and make sure it's fully refundable, pay the extra premium because this stuff can and does move around. So that's Bluebird 7. Now moving on, Bluebird 8 and beyond. So there's, obviously the program has been delayed. And this, you know, the company publicly disclosed that they were solving a stacking issue. And I want to make sure like people understand what that means. And so when working with composites, you know, carbon fiber, these things that are, you know, you can mold into different shapes and they're extremely light and extremely strong, but they're very hard to work with, at least the When you're doing it for the first time for a given application, it's going to take multiple iterations to get it right. And this stuff is hard, right? Like most companies that are doing space programs, they're not going to work with composites. They're going to use easy metals. I mean, the trade-off with metals, of course, is that you're going to sacrifice weight in order to have strength. But with composites, composites are kind of the holy grail, right? Where you are able to, once perfected, you're able to have structural strength and very lightweight. And so it's unparalleled in terms of once that's deployed compared to a metallic comparable solution, you could have the equivalent strength, but something that's much, much lighter. And so for space where weight is really important, for those companies that are willing to make a commitment, the payoff is really big, but the upfront investment is pretty high. And of course, learning curve is high too. I'm not a composites expert, but if you can imagine, you know, when I'm just thinking of different examples, like when Boeing first started making composite wings and you have layers of carbon and you've got to like You know, put down put down layer with some some type of like adhesive, and then you've got to like heat it. You got to keep doing that. You have to make sure like there's no bubbles. You have to make sure the process is very consistent because if you don't do that, then you compromise the composite materials, and then you lose out on what you were hoping to get from it, which is the you know the strength, right? And so. I, for ASD Space Mobile, I would assume that they probably went through some initial iterations and perhaps were happy with what they had. And then when they came down to doing testing, perhaps they saw things that didn't meet their standards. And so they iterated, they perhaps, you know, changed either the shape or design or perhaps some of the composite layering or where you strengthen it. And this is what they refer to as solving the stacking problem. Because if you think about like, you know, we'll call these things donuts, right? So if you have a composite donut and you stack one on top of the other one, then that's okay. But when you start stacking fully loaded, meaning there's like all the guts, the microns, everything into the donut, if you start stacking more, then the bottom ones have to be strong enough to support all the ones above, right? And so in that instance, it's not just a matter of stacking, you know, for example, I think on, you know, some of these launch platforms, the rockets will be sideways before it gets, you know, made to, or pulled vertical. And so not only does it have to withstand vertical stacking, but then also it has to be strong enough to hold all the members on top of it sideways, right? And so when thinking about testing these composite donuts, um, you know, I would assume the company probably has, you know, you take an empty donut and a composite donut and then you put vertical pressure on it to measure its strength. You put, then you turn it sideways and you put pressure on it to measure, you know, the horizontal strength. You also come at it at various angles. Um, to make sure that that structure is going to hold up, um, in, you know, multiple Gs type of launch, right? In a New Glenn or Falcon 9 rocket. And not only that, but then, you know, for the, the, the donut that's on the bottom, it's got to support the weight of 3 on top of it or 2 on top of it, or in New Glenn's case, 5 on top of it, or in the optimal configuration, 7. And so that's not an easy problem to solve, right? And so I think that's where you've had some level of delays, but then out of that, it appears that the company has solved those stacking issues. And so now they're at a point where they're integrating the payload into the donuts, right? And so that's the microns, that's the guts, The processing and everything, batteries, you know, that go into the center, that outside of what's in the Microns, but they're apparently through that, right? And so now it's a matter of finishing integration of those and then testing them and then shipping the first 2 batches in April. And so those first 2 batches, by the way, like there's been some talk on On Twitter about, you know, whether it's going to go on New Glenn or Falcon 9. Um, I'm pretty certain based off of work that Space Mob has done that the first 2 batches of 3 are going to be on Falcon 9. And so, um, as I said before, you know, we'll see the New Glenn 3 launch sometime in the first week or 2 of April, and you'll probably see the first shipment of The first batch sometime mid to late April is my guess. And so, um, I think it's important to understand, you know, where we are in the process. So the company is making north of 6 satellites worth of microns a month at this point. And I assume all the hardware that goes into the donut or the ring, um, they're already at 6 per month. And so now it's really just a matter of getting production of the donut, the composite ring, up to that level 2. And then, and then we're off, right? And so at this point, you know, there's been some questions about, you know, how many Falcon 9 versus New Glenn launches do we have this year? I think we have something on the order of 4 to 5 Falcon 9 launches or perhaps more. And then we've got New Glenn launches as well. For those that have seen New Glenn, there's been STAs filed for New Glenn 4, New Glenn 5, New Glenn 6. And so some of those are going to be our launches, dedicated launches. And then additionally, the company has talked about, they publicly disclosed that they've signed on an additional heavy launch vehicle, which I think is likely Mitsubishi Heavy, but there is a possibility too that it might be Ariane and/or United Launch Alliance, right? Although I think As Katya has astutely pointed out, you know, in a recent filing where we are planning to put up a shell, equatorial shell, the only launch provider that can really do that is Arianespace because they launch out of, I think it's like French Guiana, one of those places. But anyway, but yeah, so I think we, you know, this is something that we kind of discussed before that this is a new program, um, new, new spacecraft, and you're going to have, um, you're going to have production. You're going to have to go through production hell to the initial upfront investment of getting the tooling, training the people, doing everything. Um, and in this case, the microns, um, you know, the company has built a huge backlog of microns, I think enough for tens of I forget what the disclosure was. Maybe it was like 20 or 30 satellites. So microns are not the issue. It's really that composite donut ring that, that the secret sauce that brings the weight of the satellite down from what FM1 and FM2 were, I think around 6,000 kilograms, bringing that down to like 4,000 or so kilograms. And so, so yeah, that's a really important piece of the puzzle, which I think As I said before, if you go out and look at what other satellite manufacturers are doing, I don't, I mean, I personally, I don't know if I've seen composites being used. Usually you see these satellites with metallic shells. And so, but of course, no one's building something as big as we are. I don't know, maybe K2 is doing it. I haven't really looked closely at their satellites, but this is kind of, this is where You know, if you're going to build at scale large satellites, you're going to want to eventually get to composites, right? And so it's just on the one hand, people may look at it and say, man, that sucks. Like we're delayed. But on the other hand, it's like, that's part of the competitive moat, friends. Like if you can work in composites and, you know, we've seen the hiring at AST over the last few months where they're bringing in a ton of people who've who are composite specialists in production and design, that's going to be a huge differentiating, you know, competitive aspect that no one else really has. And so, so that's why, you know, that's why things are taking a bit longer. And as I've discussed before, that's okay. It's inevitable, right? Like, as we saw recently with O2's disclosure of Starlink's Direct-to-cell performance, you know, they're at 4 megabits per second in a given cell, and those satellites only have 40 cell beams that they can project down. And so they're way, way, way behind in terms of the actual underlying technology. Are they there first with service? Yeah, they're there, but it's a minimally viable product, right? And so once the Block 2 satellites are up, and by the way, we have a Block 2 satellite out there in space, Bluebird 6, which, you You know, the government is doing testing and so are carriers. And so, you know, we're just waiting for Blue Origin to put Bluebird 7 up. And in terms of production cadence, we're pretty much there for Block 2. It's just making sure that these composite shells are strong enough to survive launch and live out their useful lives out in space. And so that's where we are. And I know people are lamenting the delays, but this is space. Like, I put a meme out the other day. It's like you have to be a certain kind of crazy to invest in these companies because delays are inevitable, right? Doing hard things requires time and effort and money. And if that's not your cup of tea, if you want to go invest in a company that's making toothbrushes, Then you should probably go do that, right? But that's not where outsized returns are going to be. It's going to be in stuff that has tremendous TAM and upside, but is really hard and it's difficult, right? And so that's what AST is in a nutshell. And so moving on, I think, you know, we've seen some recent filings at the FCC where Verizon, it looks like they're cleaning up their record. There are some filings around their 850 MHz spectrum licenses that they filed with the FCC, probably to tidy up the docket. And then of course, Kasey and Tanner posted yesterday that AST through the FCC filed additional satellite shells at the ITU. And so, um, yeah, all these things kind of point to what I understand, you know, management has indicated to people is that, um, the FCC approval for US market access is, is pretty close. Like we're talking not months, but, um, weeks or imminent. So, um, yeah, keep your eye out for that. I mean, the steps are all, you know, the progress is being made, the, all the telltale signs are there. And so, um, that could get sprung anytime now. And of course, you know, it's hard. I get it. Like the market is volatile and people's emotions tend to run high, but I think it's important to take a step back. Like if you look at the space sector and this year's year-to-date performance versus like Mag 7, we have outperformed the market, right? And, you know, is that going to continue? And is that guaranteed? No, it's not guaranteed. But is it going to continue in my mind? Yes. Because, you know, you know, as we saw, SpaceX will be filing their S-1, their IPO prospectus. It's going to be confidential initially, but then once they get to a certain level of review, then that will be public. And as I understand, I believe SpaceX is planning to go public in June, July. So that's going to be a pretty tremendous catalyst for the sector in terms of bringing institutional awareness to other players and bringing, you know, capital into the sector as well. And so what was a sleepy backwater, you know, new space companies, I mean, back in the day, you could only really invest in the large primes like Lockheed Martin, Boeing. And of course, those guys are doing plenty of other things. They're diversified conglomerates, whereas now you've got pure-play companies that you can invest in. And so I think space is well positioned, right? You've got Golden Dome, which, you know, Of course, it's hard to keep track of all this stuff, but I think the company feels really good about getting Golden Dome Award perhaps in the second quarter. And so that's something to look forward to. And you've got a ton of catalysts that are coming up for this company, which I shared the updated list, which is long and continues to grow. And of course, yeah, there's a lot to look forward to. That said, obviously there's macro concerns going on, but if anything, I think Michael Pollack, who's the head of government, summed it up quite well. I wasn't there when he spoke, but he was part of a panel at the SAT Show, and he closed by saying that if anything, the conflict in Iran and Ukraine have give it, have made the government, you know, our importance to the government even higher. What he means by that is, you know, I assume AST SpaceMobile, some aspects of the company's service has been used perhaps in those theaters. And so as a test case, whatever the 10 uses that AST, you know, the Bluebird satellites have applicability for, military and defense, perhaps they're showing their stripes, like they're doing well. And so that's an exciting validation for Michael Pollack, who, you know, we've seen some of his presentations at these conferences, which have been quite informative, but clearly the company has a ton of traction with the military and the US government. And so that that aspect, which is, you know, for this coming year in terms of financial impact is pretty big. So anyway, um, I've got to hop, uh, I've got to take care of a few things with the kids. But, um, yeah, I just want to give everyone an update. Uh, obviously the markets are very volatile. We're trading on headlines from the US administration, from Trump, from Iran, you know, and depending on which part of Iran, if it's like hardliners or Moderates, you know, the headlines change minute to minute. And yeah, it's kind of hard to read this stuff, right? Because at the end of the day, there's back channels, there's like negotiations going on, but then also there's a lot of chest pounding, right? And so people are, whether it's to save face or improve negotiating positions, you know, obviously the US is sending more personnel and military assets to Iran, and is that to pressure them or is that to actually do something? Yeah, I mean, you could pretty much justify or think of a scenario as to why Iran's saying certain things, the US is saying certain things, and we're taking certain actions. But yeah, I don't know what's going to transpire, But I do know that AST Space Bubble has $4 billion in cash, is going to launch the constellation and startup service this year. I know that we're going to get additional military awards and our importance to military and defense has become even that much greater. And then on top of that, you know, you've got FirstNet here in the US, of course, and then you've got the commercial business, which going to take off. So anyway, I'll close with that. Hope this was informative for people. And if you have questions, maybe I'll do another space or leave comments and maybe I'll try to reach out and reply to those. Thanks everyone for joining. Thanks.
[00:22:50] Speaker B: Yo, check the cypher. It's the mob in the room. Mob in the room. Blue walker in the night, cutting through the gloom. Cutting through the gloom. Cutting through the gloom. We see the vision. The whole ball of wax while the skeptics on the sidelines stay checking the facts. Got a consultant named Tim, he's well regarded, but his lens is foggy, the vision's distorted and parted. He's crunching numbers on a paper that's dusty while we building the future, never sluggish or rusty. While we building the future, never sluggish or rusty. Sluggish or rusty, sluggish or rusty. He says it, it can't be done with the smirk on the chin, but the Space A Mob is deep. Let the games begin, it's a clash of the titans. Titans, the believers in the doubt. We know what this revolution is really about. Space Amob rules, word up. We the heavyweights chasing constellations, opening the celestial gates to fly shark and catasea. We salute the deep dive, keeping the truth and the momentum alive. Yeah, we love the risk. Let the skeptics all talk. The future is in flight while Tim takes a walk.
[00:23:48] Speaker C: Yeah.
[00:23:49] Speaker B: The future is in flight while Tim takes a walk. The future is in flight while Tim takes a walk. Fly shark is swimming in the data, finding the pearl. Cat is sea tracking the signal a whole world. Cat is sea tracking the signal across the whole world. Tim is a ghost in the machine quoting the past while we moving at a speed that's too heavy and fast. They call it a gamble, we call it a design. Linking up the satellites, crossing the line from the cell tower deserts to the mountain peak high. We painting the network across the Entire the sky. So tell the consultants with the well-regarded degree that the space of Maserati's just a pebble in the sea. We love the risk, yes, a pebble in Lee. If Fords up here, Mahadi's just a pebble in sea. We love the risk, yeah, it's etched in our soul. Taking back the power, taking back the control. Space of mob rules, word up, we the heavyweights chasing constellations, opening the celestial gates to fly shark and catasine. We salute the deep dive. Keeping the truth in the moment and I'm alive. Yeah, we love the risk. Let the skeptics all talk. The future is in flight while Tim takes a walk. The future is in flight while Tim takes a walk. The future is in flight while Tim takes a walk. Yeah, space of mind. Fly shark, cat a sea. We out here in the vacuum. Tim, go home. The future is connected. We love the risk. Peace.
[00:25:25] Speaker A: Thanks for listening to the AST SpaceMobile Podcast. If you enjoyed this episode and you'd like to help support the podcast, please share it with others, post about it on social media, or leave a rating and review. To catch all the latest news about AST SpaceMobile, make sure to subscribe. Thanks again, and I'll see you next time. We're doing something very, very big, and I think with this technology we can really affect billion lives. AST SpaceMobile is the only company that has proven technology to deliver cellular broadband connectivity directly from space to every People will just basically turn on their phone and be seamless regardless of where you are. We don't want the user even to know that he's connected by satellite. Our role is to bring this into reality, always in partnership with the MNOs.
[00:26:18] Speaker B: Listen.
[00:26:29] Speaker A: Mmm, waffles. Mmm, waffles.