Episode

Anpanman - Two words - Golden Dome

2025-12-11 42:47 Anpanman

In a solo X Spaces titled "Golden Dome," Anpanman lays out his case that AST SpaceMobile is on the verge of a major, unpriced U.S. government defense ("Golden Dome") contract.

As circumstantial evidence he points to a polar-orbit satellite shell, accelerated manufacturing expansion, an October 2025 convertible raise, and comments from President Scott Wisniewski about a possible dedicated "government shell."

His headline conclusion is that the market has not priced in any Golden Dome-related government revenue for ASTS, and that this opportunity could be bigger than the 2024 Verizon deal. And he says a government contract award in the near term could send the stock sharply higher.

Key Takeaways

  • Anpanman (solo host) argues the market has completely missed AST SpaceMobile's potential role in the U.S. 'Golden Dome' missile-defense initiative, noting a large Bloomberg piece on aerospace/defense growth sectors made zero mention of ASTS.
  • AST has FCC filings from a few months prior showing a planned polar (north-south) orbit satellite shell of north of 20 satellites, which Anpanman says only makes sense for military applications like missile-launch detection over the North Pole, not consumer connectivity.
  • Anpanman speculates that delays to Block 2 satellites FM1 and FM2, including an inclination change for FM2, were driven by military customer requirement changes rather than technical problems.
  • AST has expanded manufacturing space from roughly 400,000 sq ft (after adding Homestead, Florida and Spain space disclosed over the summer) to about 500,000 sq ft in Midland, and Scott Wisniewski indicated at a UBS conference the company is looking for even more space dedicated solely to Micron production, which Anpanman reads as preparation for a large government award.
  • Anpanman says the company told him that, as of around August/September 2025, it had no plans to raise the amount of capital it ultimately raised in the October 2025 convertible offering, but did so once unspecified opportunities became concrete and the stock price was strong.
  • AST's disclosed production target is up to 6 satellites per month to stand up the Block 2 constellation, with capacity potentially expandable to 12 satellites per month; Anpanman argues doubling planned production beyond commercial needs signals confidence in winning large government work.
  • Anpanman estimates AST can build and launch a satellite for roughly $21-23 million apiece (incremental material and launch cost, excluding R&D), versus an estimated $300 million to $1 billion per satellite for a comparable-capability program from a traditional defense prime, inclusive of launch.
  • Anpanman calls the $21-23 million price point a 'checkmate metric' for the Department of War because it solves two problems cheaply: getting significant power into orbit and creating a highly capable sensor for radar, PNT, and other sensing functions.
  • Anpanman contrasts Elon Musk's overnight comments about SpaceX's next-generation Starlink V3 satellite (larger ~5x5 meter phased array, 20 kW power generation, hoped-for launch at scale around Q4 2026 but contingent on Starship) with AST's satellites, which are already built, launching, and closer to being ready to serve Golden Dome use cases.
  • Anpanman says AST's president Scott Wisniewski told a Bank of America analyst that near-term revenue will be driven by government work: tens of millions of dollars in 2025, hundreds of millions of dollars in 2026, before the AT&T/Verizon/Saudi Telecom/Vodafone consumer/MNO business scales up starting in 2027, and Anpanman argues the scale of that 2026 government revenue guidance implies a Golden Dome contribution.
  • Anpanman notes sell-side research, including Bank of America's 2026/2027 projections, currently has little to no military/government revenue modeled for AST SpaceMobile, and argues models will need to be revised higher if a Golden Dome award materializes.

Detailed Discussion10 topics

Framing: why Anpanman called this space 'Golden Dome'

3
  • Anpanman Untagged 00:00:28

    Anpanman explains he's doing an unplanned follow-up space because overnight news came out and he'd also been thinking more about the recent UBS conference where Scott (Wisniewski) spoke; he jokes he might rename the podcast 'Are You Bullish Enough?'

  • Anpanman Untagged 00:00:28

    He titled the space 'Golden Dome' because it's top of mind for existing ASTS investors but says people unfamiliar with the company have no idea what's going on and mostly just think of AST SpaceMobile as a broadband cellular connectivity company for unmodified phones, if they know it at all.

  • Anpanman Confirmed 00:00:28

    Anpanman says he read a large Bloomberg piece that morning on growth sectors in aerospace and defense and found zero mention of AST SpaceMobile in the space/defense section, which he takes as evidence the market has no idea what's coming.

Polar orbit shell and satellite delays as military signals

4
  • Anpanman Speculation 00:00:28

    A few months prior, FCC filings showed AST plans to operate some satellites in a polar (north-to-south) orbit, which he says is typically used for military applications and Earth observation because it allows coverage of every square inch of Earth; he recalls it being 'north of 20 satellites' expected to have that orbit.

  • Anpanman Speculation 00:00:28

    He argues polar orbit coverage would support sensing/detection of missile launches coming over the North Pole toward the U.S., and that there isn't a large enough consumer/Arctic-researcher market to justify a polar shell for commercial reasons alone, implying military intent.

  • Anpanman Speculation 00:00:28

    FM1 and FM2 (Block 2 satellites) were delayed due to changes in customer requirements, which Anpanman says is Space Mob speculation but he believes were military-driven requests; FM2 specifically has had a change in orbital inclination.

  • Anpanman Untagged 00:00:28

    He explains that changing a satellite's inclination isn't something you can simply request from a launch provider after the fact, especially on a rideshare — you typically need a different rideshare that fits the new inclination or a dedicated launch, which he says explains part of FM2's delay.

Manufacturing expansion and capital raise as signals of government work

6
  • Anpanman Confirmed 00:00:28

    AST's manufacturing footprint grew from an initial disclosure (over the summer) of added space in Homestead, Florida and Spain, taking total square footage to about 400,000 sq ft, and then more recently Midland was expanded further to about 500,000 sq ft.

  • Anpanman Company Guidance 00:00:28

    Scott Wisniewski said on the recent call/conference that the company is looking for even more manufacturing space to be dedicated solely to Micron production, which Anpanman views as a big signal because military programs like Golden Dome require heavy upfront capex and proof of production capability/capital before award.

  • Anpanman Company Guidance 00:00:28

    About one to two weeks after AST's large October 2025 convertible note raise, Anpanman says he asked the company whether that raise had been planned; the company told him there were no plans as of roughly August/September to raise that quantum of capital, but opportunities became concrete and the stock price performed well, so they raised the money to execute against those opportunities.

  • Anpanman Speculation 00:00:28

    He cites Kook's prior point that government work typically requires a company to show up fully capitalized to prove it can deliver, and argues the production build-out well beyond commercial needs signals confidence in winning large government awards; headcount has grown from about 500 employees to about 1,800, and he says it may be higher now.

  • Anpanman Company Guidance 00:00:28

    AST's disclosed production plan is 6 satellites per month to stand up the Block 2 constellation, with the capacity to eventually double that to 12 satellites per month; Anpanman argues that doubling planned production beyond what's needed for the mid-band constellation buildout implies expectation of large government work.

  • Anpanman Company Guidance 00:00:28

    He notes that at the end of the recent discussion, Scott Wisniewski said the company will have a couple of commercial 'shells' (constellations) up, and potentially a government shell beyond that, which Anpanman treats as about as concrete a signal as the market will get that the company expects to win government work.

Cost advantage versus defense primes and Golden Dome positioning

5
  • Anpanman Speculation 00:00:28

    Anpanman estimates that a traditional defense prime building something comparable in power, communications, and processing capability would cost roughly $300 million to $1 billion per satellite, inclusive of launch, whereas AST can put up satellites for about $21 to $23 million apiece — the incremental cost of materials, assembly, and launch, not including R&D.

  • Anpanman Speculation 00:00:28

    He argues timing favors AST because traditional contractors are proposing to build capability over 1-3 years, whereas AST's satellites are already being built and launched; FM1 and FM2 were built to spec for the HALO demonstration (which originally asked for 2 prototypes before the end of 2026), but the company accelerated the timeline, which he says was fortuitous given the Trump administration and the emergence of Golden Dome.

  • Anpanman Speculation 00:00:28

    He describes AST's satellite as a $21-23 million, 100-kilowatt power-generating platform capable of direct-to-device communications plus sensing/radar and some level of compute, and says swapping processors could reconfigure it for a data-center-style use case, though he views space data centers as still some time away.

  • Anpanman Speculation 00:00:28

    He frames the near-term military rationale for space-based compute as resiliency — if ground data centers become unavailable during a conflict (including a conflict reaching the U.S.), having compute in the space layer matters.

  • Anpanman Speculation 00:00:28

    Anpanman says he tweeted that the roughly $23 million per-satellite price point is a 'checkmate metric' for the Department of War because it cheaply solves two big missile-defense problems: getting power into orbit and creating a highly capable sensor (radar, PNT, etc.).

Elon Musk's Starlink V3 comments versus AST's position

5
  • Anpanman Rumor 00:00:28

    Anpanman references an overnight Elon Musk tweet stating Starlink's current satellite has roughly a 2.5-by-2.5-meter phased array, while the next-generation Starlink V3 satellite will have a much larger array of roughly 5-by-5 meters; V3's stowed/unfolded design won't fit a standard rocket fairing and is contingent on Starship.

  • Anpanman Rumor 00:00:28

    Musk reportedly said each V3 satellite will generate 20 kilowatts of power, that he expects V3 to launch at scale around Q4 2026 (which Anpanman discounts to more like 2027 given typical space program slippage), and that scaling to 100 kilowatts would not be difficult if satellite mass were shifted toward solar arrays and radiators for AI compute instead of the large phased-array antenna used for mobile connectivity.

  • Anpanman Speculation 00:00:28

    Anpanman's key takeaway from Musk's comments is that SpaceX's V3 satellites won't be ready for a long time — not until 2027 or later — while AST is on the cusp of launching its first Block 2 satellite and, by his guess, will have about 6 Block 2 satellites completed (after FM1) by the end of this month.

  • Anpanman Untagged 00:00:28

    Anpanman says he isn't sure how SpaceX's Starshield program factors into this comparison.

  • Anpanman Speculation 00:00:28

    He notes Trump wants a Golden Dome system operational before the end of his term (i.e., by around 2028), which is not much time, and argues this favors a company like AST that already has a 6-7 ton, 100-kilowatt satellite with sensing, radar, and PNT capability and swappable compute, ready now.

Golden Dome funding, market pricing, and revenue guidance

5
  • Anpanman Rumor 00:00:28

    Anpanman mentions someone noted the U.S. House had passed Golden Dome funding around the day of or day before the space; he expects rumblings/leaks about award winners to increase over the following weeks, though he isn't sure whether AST itself would announce anything given other primes' vocal PR approach.

  • Anpanman Speculation 00:00:28

    He argues the market and sell-side research have not priced in any Golden Dome opportunity for AST SpaceMobile at all — sell-side coverage has essentially no mention of Golden Dome, and Bank of America's 2026/2027 projections have nothing for military revenue.

  • Anpanman Speculation 00:00:28

    He poses a hypothetical: if the company announced a several-hundred-million-dollar to billion-dollar Golden Dome contract for sensing and power for the constellation in the next few weeks, he speculates the stock could double given how unpriced that opportunity currently is.

  • Anpanman Company Guidance 00:00:28

    Anpanman relays that Scott Wisniewski, at what he believes was a Bank of America event, told a research analyst that near-term revenue will be primarily government-driven: tens of millions of dollars this year (2025), hundreds of millions of dollars in 2026, with the consumer/MNO business (AT&T, Verizon, Saudi Telecom, Vodafone) ramping in scale starting in 2027; Anpanman argues the scale of the 2026 government guidance implies Golden Dome must be a contributor.

  • Anpanman Speculation 00:00:28

    He attributes the delay in more formal Golden Dome news partly to the recent U.S. government shutdown, and guesses more formal information will surface around January 2026, with informal leaks likely in the remaining weeks of December.

2026 space-investing theme and AI data centers in space

4
  • Anpanman Speculation 00:00:28

    Anpanman predicts 2026 will be a major year for space investing broadly, pulling in new sector-focused and defense-specialist investors who haven't previously looked at AST SpaceMobile, in addition to existing TMT investors.

  • Anpanman Speculation 00:00:28

    He argues that terrestrial data center growth (for AI, crypto, etc.) is constrained by finite power, land, cooling/water resources, and that moving data centers to space is an eventuality, though not a near-term replacement for terrestrial data centers.

  • Anpanman Untagged 00:00:28

    He cites the community's own adage: someone who spends five minutes of due diligence on AST SpaceMobile will want to short it, but someone who spends an hour digging in with an open mind will want to 'mortgage the house' and go long.

  • Anpanman Speculation 00:00:28

    Anpanman says he has never been more bullish, and characterizes the potential Golden Dome opportunity as bigger than the Verizon deal (referencing Verizon's definitive commercial agreement at the end of May 2024), which he says validated the company and was foundational to getting to where it is today.

Near-term catalysts and macro backdrop

3
  • Anpanman Speculation 00:00:28

    Anpanman says Q1 2026 is setting up to be a big quarter for catalysts: an ISRO rocket launch that got pushed to 'the 20th' due to space conditions, followed shortly after (probably early January) by BB-7 (a Block 2 BlueBird).

  • Anpanman Speculation 00:00:28

    He guesses PR will come in the next few weeks announcing the first batch of three Block 2 satellites being sent to Cape Canaveral, with a second batch of three following not long after.

  • Anpanman Untagged 00:00:28

    On macro, he notes Fed Chair Powell cut rates with a dovish tone at the prior day's meeting, and observes that since tariffs contributed to inflation, Trump has a lever to reduce inflation by rolling back tariffs if needed.

Audience Q&A

6
  • Anpanman Rumor 00:00:28

    Responding to a listener comment that Starlink V3 needs an ASIC as well as Starship and likely won't be available before 2028, Anpanman agrees SpaceX will need an ASIC for full V3 performance (though FPGAs could get early satellites running); he's heard from people close to Starlink that ASIC work may have been underway for a while, guesses SpaceX's ASIC could be ready around 2027 given a typical 3-5 year ASIC development process, and contrasts this with AST's own AST5000 ASIC, which he says is ready and being integrated into satellites in the first quarter of 2026.

  • Anpanman Speculation 00:00:28

    Responding to a comment that Trump favors 'the biggest' things, Anpanman notes Block 1 BlueBirds are already the largest communications array in low Earth orbit, and Block 2 satellites will be about 3 times bigger, calling this a marginal PR benefit that could help win a Golden Dome award.

  • Anpanman Speculation 00:00:28

    Asked whether ASTS is the riskiest stock to short right now, Anpanman says yes, citing the stack of 2026 catalysts and an unpriced Golden Dome opportunity; he adds that Scotiabank downgraded the stock based on valuation without accounting for this dynamic and will need to reconsider, and that adding Golden Dome revenue on top of what he describes as roughly a billion dollars of contracted/committed commercial revenue from MNOs should push price targets and research models higher.

  • Anpanman Speculation 00:00:28

    Asked about solar power arrays and potential capex/revenue capture, Anpanman explains AST's Micron building-block design hasn't changed since BlueWalker 3 (roughly 30cm-by-30cm panels); Block 2 combines two Micron panels, and he believes each Block 2 fold combines about 16 of them, with fewer folds/unfolds needed for full deployment, reducing mechanical complexity.

  • Anpanman Speculation 00:00:28

    He speculates the company could eventually sell Microns without the antenna portion to third parties purely as power-generation building blocks, or license its roughly 3,800-patent portfolio to other manufacturers, though he says that isn't the current focus — the company is prioritizing production capacity to pursue the opportunities directly in front of it.

  • Anpanman Speculation 00:00:28

    On the AI-data-center-in-space opportunity, Anpanman argues no other company, including SpaceX, is currently putting up 6-7 ton satellites with 100-120 kilowatts of onboard power, giving AST a competitive edge for the next 2-3 years, though he expects other players (potentially defense primes) to eventually pursue similar architectures since power generation and heat dissipation are the core bottlenecks for space-based compute.

Closing remarks

1
  • Anpanman Speculation 00:00:28

    Anpanman closes by acknowledging the stock could still see 20-50% drawdowns depending on macro conditions over coming weeks or quarters, but says he remains highly confident in the company's opportunities and plans to host another space the next day or the day after; he notes this update may take some pressure off Kook to cover everything.

Watch Items6

  • ISRO rocket launch (Block 2 satellite launch) — pushed back to 'the 20th' due to space conditions

    the 20th (exact month not stated; context implies imminent, ahead of BB-7 in early January) Anpanman 00:00:28
  • BB-7 (Block 2 BlueBird) launch

    shortly after the ISRO launch, probably early January Anpanman 00:00:28
  • PR announcing first batch of 3 Block 2 satellites shipped to Cape Canaveral, followed by a second batch of 3

    next few weeks, then not long after Anpanman 00:00:28
  • AST5000 ASIC integration into satellites

    first quarter of 2026 Anpanman 00:00:28
  • Possible formal Golden Dome award news/announcement for AST SpaceMobile

    informal leaks expected in remaining weeks of December 2025; more formal news guessed around January 2026 Anpanman 00:00:28
  • ~6 Block 2 satellites completed (after FM1)

    by end of December 2025 (Anpanman's guess) Anpanman 00:00:28

Open Questions3

  • Will AST SpaceMobile publicly announce a Golden Dome-related government contract award, and when?

    Anpanman 00:00:28
  • How does SpaceX's Starshield program factor into the Golden Dome competitive picture relative to AST?

    Anpanman 00:00:28
  • How will investors and analysts re-rate/value AST SpaceMobile's stock once a Golden Dome opportunity (potentially hundreds of millions to a billion dollars) becomes visible, given it's currently viewed almost entirely as a direct-to-device consumer/MNO business?

    Anpanman 00:00:28

Raw Transcript

Show full transcript
[00:00:06] Speaker A: This is the AST SpaceMobile Podcast.
[00:00:09] Speaker B: It will just basically come to your phone and be seamless regardless of where you are. We don't want the user even to know that it's connected by satellite. Listen, the opportunity that we have is very, very, very large.
[00:00:28] Speaker C: Hey everyone, thanks for joining. Uh, we're gonna get started here shortly. I'm just gonna put this on mute. What's weird is the desktop application, I believe, doesn't play background music, which is, which is a nice feature of the mobile app. But, um, it doesn't seem like the desktop app has, um, has music. So that's bizarre. Anyway, I will, uh, I'll come back. Shortly here. I just got to do something and then we'll start. All right, I'm back. I think I'm going to name this podcast, Are You Bullish Enough? Because, yeah, I'm having to come back, you know, overnight and throughout the day some new news comes out and then it, I kind of piece stuff together and then I just feel compelled to have to go on a space and talk about it. So, but yeah, thanks everyone for joining. There's been a few nuggets that kind of came out overnight and then I thought a bit more about, again, like the UBS conference where Scott spoke. And so I just wanted to talk about it. So, you know, I labeled this space Golden Dome because I think that's probably something for people who are invested in AST SpaceMobile, it's something that's top of mind. But for those people who are not familiar with the company, they have no clue what's going on. They just think about the company as providing broadband cellular connectivity to unmodified phones. And that's even if they have any idea like what AST SpaceMobile is. Interestingly, this morning I was reading Bloomberg put out this large piece on various growth sectors in aerospace and defense. And when I went through the area for space and defense, there's absolutely zero mention of AST SpaceMobile. And so that kind of shows you what we're dealing with here. The market just has no clue what's about to hit them. And I think it's going to be an absolute load of bricks that gets dropped on people, and there's going to be a complete scramble to figure out How they missed this, and more importantly, like why you know why why should they invest in ASD Space Mobile? And so, um, yeah, I just want to let's maybe I'll just start by saying, you know, putting together some of the pieces, the mosaic. Space Mo Space Mob, I guess it was like a few months ago. You know, there were some filings with the FCC where the company started. Putting some meat around the fact that we are going to have some of the satellites in a polar orbit. And you typically would do that, meaning the satellites orbit from the North to South Pole. And the reason why you would do that is you want to have, and this is primarily for military applications, but also for Earth observation. Some companies utilize this orbit as well, but you want to be able to map And have coverage of every single square inch of the Earth. And when it comes to applications like sensing and detecting, for example, missile launches, which if the US has to deal with those in the future, which I hope we never do, a lot of those missiles would probably be coming over the North Pole in order to hit locations in the US. And so having radar and sensing capabilities to detect those launches requires that you have a polar orbit. And so we learned, I guess it was like a few months ago, that AST is going to have a shell that orbits, that has a polar orbit. I think if I remember correctly, it was something like north of 20 satellites are expected to have that orbit. So, so yeah, you don't file to do that. To address consumer applications. I mean, it's not like there's a ton of researchers out in the Arctic that need mobile connectivity. I mean, that's nice, but it's not a huge growth market. But so the fact that we are planning to have satellites there is a big giveaway that there's obviously military implications here. The other thing is that FM2, and FM1 were delayed because of some changes, customer requirements, which, you know, I mean, this is speculation from Space Mob, but pretty sure those were military requests and changes. And so for example, FM2, which we're still waiting on, that satellite has actually— has a change in inclination of where it's going to be. And, you know, Katsi and I have talked about it a bit. And it seems like there's some pretty clear use cases as to why that inclination is changing. And it's important to note that, you know, when you launch a satellite, you can't just go to the launch provider and say, hey, we're going to change the inclination. You know, especially if you were going to do that as a rideshare when other customers are seeking to have very specific orbits, you can't just say, hey, actually, can we go to a different inclination, typically you would want, or you would have to get a ride on another launch that actually fits that inclination, or you have to get a dedicated launch. And so, yeah, I think that kind of explains a bit as to why FM2 has been delayed because some changes in customer requirements, not only potentially in some of the hardware that's on the satellite, but also the mission. what they're trying to test. And so the other thing is that you've got, you know, this new disclosure. And so we know the company has been ramping up manufacturing space. You know, we've gone from the initial disclosure, I think over the summer, is that the company, you know, picked up office space in Homestead, Florida, and also in Spain. And so that got square footage up to like 400,000, which is huge. And then recently they expanded Midland to get to 500,000. And then Scott mentioned in this call that they're actually looking for more space and they're looking to put up more manufacturing space to be dedicated solely to Micron production, which I think is a huge sign, right? Like, As we know, in a lot of these military programs, and especially for Golden Dome, it requires a lot of upfront CapEx, and you have to show the government that you have the capability to produce what they're requesting and you have the capital to do it. And so I think that was a pretty big tell there. The fact that they're expanding what was already expanded production in Midland, they're doing even more. And on top of that, you, I think, what was it? I think it was like a week or two after they did the massive convert in October. You know, I was talking with the company about it and there was this, you know, I had asked, you know, had this been in the plans? Like, you know, what is the capital being used for? And they had said, You know, there were no plans to raise that quantum of capital, you know, sometime, I guess in August, September. However, due to some opportunities that came up and became concrete, and of course, like the stock price, you know, it performed quite well. They decided to go out and raise that money in order to go execute against those opportunities. And so I think that's another tell, like, as Kuk has mentioned in his space before, A lot of this government work, you actually need to come fully capitalized and show the government that you're making a commitment that you can do what you say you're going to do. And so this acceleration and expansion of production well beyond what's needed for commercial tells you something, that the company is confident that they are going to win some pretty big awards here. And it's not like some small award. Like they're, they're, you know, we've gone from 500 employees to 1,800 and who knows where it is now. But they're, they're, you know, the disclosure of getting to 6 satellites per month, but eventually having the capacity to get that to 12 satellites a month. Like, I think the original idea was to do 6 satellites to stand up the Block 2 constellation. And, you know, maybe you might increase that a little more to get a head start on the mid-band constellation, but To double production, that tells me that they're expecting, you know, big government work to come down the pike. And so to close that, you've got, you know, Scott at the end of the discussion saying, you know, they're going to have a couple shells up, you know, they call shells constellations, but you're going to have a couple shells up, but then beyond that, potentially a government shell. And that's about as like concrete as it gets. Like he's telling the market and telling us that they fully expect to win government work. And, um, and the big, and, you know, it's not, it's not as if you go well beyond 500,000 square feet and 12 satellites per month, um, to do something small. I mean, this is, we're talking big scale here. And so the other thing that I didn't really talk about yesterday, which actually, and again, this is why I'm back on this mic talking about it. The other thing that I didn't cover is the fact that we're doing this all, and the reason why it makes sense, and Scott talked about this, like, you know, having, putting up the most power, the largest arrays at the cheapest cost. known in the history of civilization. And that last part is really critical, right? Like, cost is huge. If you look at traditional primes, if they were to do something comparable in terms of capability, power and communications and processing, you're probably looking at a program where each satellite's going to run you $300 million to $1 billion. And I think that's inclusive of launch. And launch is a pretty big piece, at least for AST SpaceMobile, of the per cost of satellites. However, you have AST who can go to the government and say, look, we're putting these satellites up for $21 to $23 million apiece. I mean, that's the cost. That's not allocating, of course, like R&D and all these other things, but that's the incremental cost of materials and putting it together and then the launch costs. That's really compelling. Like that versus $300 million to $1 billion. And then when thinking about Golden Dome, timing is everything as well. Like there's a lot of these contractors that are putting forward solutions and they're trying to win work and they're like, well, you know, we're, well, Give us some money and we're going to build this capability for you. We'll deliver it in 1, 2, 3 years. I mean, we know how primes are pretty slow on this stuff. Whereas ASD Space Mobile, like the satellite is ready. It can serve a multi-role mission and it's ready. Like we're launching these things and it's clear FM1 and FM2 were built to spec for the HALO demonstration, which HALO had asked for 2 prototypes to be launched and deployed. I think it was like before the end of 2026, but the company was like, shit, let's just do it now, which was smart because then of course, like, you know, Trump won the presidency and then there's Golden Dome became a thing. And so by putting those 2 satellites up, That's going to be huge. Or that, I think, probably was a key factor as to why, or will be a key factor as to why I think the government's going to give the company a big award. But yeah, so those, going back to price, it's something that I think is lost on market and folks where it's $21 to $23 million to send up 100-kilowatt Power generating satellite that can do direct-to-device communications, but then also sensing radar, some level of compute, which we talked about before. If you wanted to shift to this data center idea, you would swap out the processors and you would reconfigure the satellite. But I think it's important that the whole idea of data centers in space, that's still some time away. But everybody is now, it's a rush to get there, right? But the near-term objective is for military to have some level of intelligence in the space layer because we talked about how you want resiliency, but also some of the ground assets that you're communicating with, or perhaps if you're relying on ground data centers to do the compute, those data centers may not be around. In an environment where you have a conflict and perhaps like maybe some of that conflict comes to the US, which would be bad. But so that's why you need compute actually up in space. And so that's why this stuff is relevant. But what really kind of brought everything home, so I think the company's well positioned for Golden Dome. I tweeted about this. About how the $23 million price point, I think, is kind of like a checkmate metric for the Department of War because they can put up a lot of these satellites for relatively inexpensive cost. It's not like you're going to a prime and they're going to charge you a few hundred million dollars apiece. Like, this is $23 million and it solves 2 huge problems around missile defense. One is like getting power into orbit. And the other one is actually creating a highly capable sensor, right? That can do radar sensing, PNT, all these things. I mean, the satellite can, in its current form without modification, can do a lot of the functions that you're trying to complete that will be part of Golden Dome. And so one tweet that Elon Musk had put out overnight, which kind of brought the point home, is that he specifically discussed how Starlink V3, which is their much larger satellite, I believe, you know, their current satellite has a phased array of like 2.5 to 2.5 meters. This one is going to be somewhere along the lines of like 5 by 5 meters, 5 meters by 5 meters. So it's going to be a much bigger phased array. But that satellite, which is their next generation, they're hoping it's much bigger. They're hoping to get that satellite up sometime over 2026, but it's all predicated on Starship because the way that satellite stows and unfolds, like it doesn't fit into a standard fairing, which, go back to some of our IP, the novel, what we call the waffle, the way that you can shove so much solar panels and antennas into a very compact form factor like that, that's really important. And so, you know, Musk yesterday disclosed that each of the V3 satellites will be capable of generating 20 kilowatts of power. And, and oh, and he said, you know, he thinks they'll launch at scale around Q4 next year, which, you know, if you extrapolate that, that's probably more like 2027, because as we know, space is hard. But he talks specifically about how it's not going to be a problem to scale that to 100 kilowatts if the satellite mass is shifted towards solar arrays and radiators for AI compute instead of the giant phased array antennas for internet connectivity. And that phased array is specifically for mobile devices. And so, you know, he, there were some tweets from him just talking about How it's not going to be that difficult to shift and reconfigure that satellite for AI compute versus communications. And so I think, you know, you got to discount that to some degree, but Elon's a smart guy and he's experienced and SpaceX has a ton of smart engineers. I think that just kind of highlights that the problem of solving communications, especially for mobile communications, is pretty difficult. And shouldn't be discounted relative to being able to pivot some of that technology to then focus on AI compute. But the most important thing about that tweet is the fact that SpaceX, these V3 satellites, they're not going to be ready. And they're not going to be ready for a long time. They're not going to be ready until 2027, perhaps even later. And you're looking at a design change in order to get the right, to get over 100 kilowatts of power. And so I guess the one thing I don't know is how Starshield kind of plays into all this. I'm not sure exactly what the capabilities are of Starshield, but the key thing here is that, you know, AST has these satellites and they're being, you know, we're on the cusp of launching our first one and they're going to be rolling, you know, we're, I think we're pretty close to getting By the end of this month, my guess is we'll have 6 Block 2 satellites completed after FM1, and we'll start rolling these things out like hotcakes. But for Golden Dome, the key requirement is that Trump wants that system up and running before the end of his term. And so, you know, we're talking 2028. That's not much time. And so when you're the US government and you're looking at who to give awards to, Hey, look, there's this company in Midland, Texas that is building a 6 to 7 ton satellite that can generate 100 kilowatts of power. It has a ton of compute on it that could be swappable. You know, you could put GPUs or TPUs in there, but it's got sensing, it can do radar, PNT, it can do all these things. Like, to me, that sounds like it's going to be As I mentioned in the tweet, a core, like the backbone of, of sentient power infrastructure for Golden Dawn. And so that's what I meant by, you know, yesterday having this, this moment of absolute clarity. It's like, oh, it's all here. Like it's, it's coming. All the pieces line up. It all makes sense. And so I think someone did mention that The House had passed funding and for Golden Dome. I think that was like yesterday, maybe the day before. And so my guess is like, we'll start hearing, you know, we saw, we heard some initial pieces of, I guess, smaller work, maybe it was a week ago, but we're going to start hearing rumblings. And I don't know if there's like going to be a formal announcement from White House about this. I'm sure there will because they're always, focused on getting as much PR possible out of these things. But, you know, will the company announce anything? I'm not sure. Maybe, but who knows? Like, if it's— I know the primes have been pretty vocal about their work, and so I'm not sure, like, when and if the company wants to announce this stuff. But what I do know is, like, just given how many folks are part of Golden Dome on the government side and contractors, like this stuff will eventually get out to the market. And so I, you know, Cook talks about this whole concept of the invisible hand and how things, you know, we always joke about whether things are priced in or not. I don't think the market, you know, I don't think the market, Golden Dome is priced in at all for AST SpaceMobile. Like it's, For someone outside looking in, like it's all speculation and, you know, look at these like retail investors, who knows, they're a bunch of, they're crazy and they're just here to pump the stock and who, what do they know? But as I mentioned before, like the amount of due diligence that the Space Mob does and the ability to put together the mosaic is unparalleled. And I do think, and it, I guess It's a place to our advantage, right? I don't think the market expects this. You've still got skeptics in the company just even for the core business, but no one's valuing Golden Dome. But I think there's a huge opportunity here. Like imagine if we find out, just hypothetically, like if we find out the company gets a few hundred million dollars or a billion-dollar contract for Golden Dome, To provide sensing and power for the constellation. Like, where does the stock go and how do people value that opportunity? Like, people view the company more as a directed device providing service to consumers, but they don't really think about it as a defense opportunity. And so when that's opened up, like how do people value the stock? How does it re-rate? Does it, I mean, you might, if the company got like a billion-dollar award from Golden Dome in the next few weeks, like the stock could double. Like it's an opportunity that the market's not pricing in. And part of what fits that narrative is the fact that Scott, What I think was it at B of A, he talked about some, someone at the research analyst talked about the, the how revenues were going to unfold for the company. And he specifically mentioned, you know, near term, it's going to be all government. Like this year we're talking tens of millions, 2026 will be hundreds of millions of government. And then following that, that's when consumer, like the MNO, you know, the business that we have with AT&T, Verizon, Saudi Telecom, Vodafone, that's when that business is going to ramp up in scale. It's going to be 2027. And so what gives you confidence of a few hundred million in government revenue in 2026? Like, isn't that obvious? Like, it's got to be Golden Dome, right? Like, some of these other programs are going to be big and potentially big, but the one that gives you immediate scale in terms of revenue and impact is going to be Golden Dome. And so, yeah, I don't know. I think the timing was people, because of the government shutdown, it got pushed back, but I think we'll probably hear something more formal in January. But, you know, there's like 2 weeks left in December. I think things are going to start leaking, my guess. And we'll hear some information about who's winning these things and people's level of involvement. And I think AST's going to be right there in the middle. And so, yeah, it's, I joke, but we're not bullish enough. If you put all those pieces together, I'm highly confident it's going to happen and it's going to be big. It's not going to be small. Yeah. And then, yes, there's going to, there is this aspect of, we've talked about leveraging dual use, like, you know, the government will, yeah, certainly they're going to want to use the Block 2 constellation for dual use in terms of communications and PNT. But I think this is important enough and big enough where the government is going to ask for a separate shell. And it's going to be part of what is going to power the infrastructure layer for Golden Dome. And that, you know, I could be wrong. That's my speculation. But one thing that I've been good at in my career has been kind of piecing stuff together. And I initially did this primarily for corporate actions and M&A, but then as I moved over to, you know, once I left the industry and was investing on my own, being able to piece stuff together and thinking about themes too, like that's always been one of my strengths. And so yeah, it seems pretty obvious and abundantly obvious, like this is kind of where things are going. The other thing that I talked about yesterday, which I think is, I mean, we're seeing it now, it's happening like pretty quickly, is 2026 I think is going to be the year for space investing. And so for people who are well-versed in these names and understand what companies have the proper capabilities, and I mean, it's going to be huge. And all these I think all the skeptics who have been floating around the industry and kind of poo-pooed everything, I think the amount of CapEx and spending around defense, around communications, around what is now compute in space, like AI data centers, which I think in the near term we're not replacing terrestrial data centers, but it's going to be something along the lines of the infrastructure that's out in space is going to need AI compute. And so you're going to start seeing some of those applications emerge. But then as people kind of learn and, and of course test and, and refine their thinking around it, eventually, you know, years from now, then you will have the potential where AI data centers in space or data centers in general will start taking over some of the load from terrestrial data centers. As I talked about yesterday, like, If you extrapolate the need for power, land, cooling, which is water, resources in general, it's just not going to be sustainable. Like whether you need data centers for AI, crypto, whatever it is, whatever application, you just can't keep building these things because there's consequences, right? And you've got to weigh and balance those consequences against the needs of humans. And so It's pretty finite down here. And so I think moving data centers in space is eventuality. It's going to happen. There's a lot of problems to solve and you've seen debates kind of blowing up on Twitter and people poo-pooing it. And, but yeah, that's usually how transformative technologies get introduced to the market. People laugh it off, they scoff at it. And then as they dig in, it goes back to the whole adage of the AST SpaceMobile. We have this saying, Where for new people to AC Space Mobile, if you look at the company and spend about 5 minutes of due diligence, you'll probably want to short the company. But then if you spend an hour of due diligence and really dig in and with an open mind, you'll actually want to mortgage your house and go long, which funny enough, like is probably a true story for some of you guys. But anyway, yeah, it's an exciting time. I think I don't think I've ever been this bullish before. And that's saying, I mean, this is going to be way bigger than the Verizon DA, right? Verizon coming on board and changing the game for the company where it's like, oh yeah, we got AT&T and Verizon. I mean, that obviously was huge and we wouldn't be here today without Verizon coming on board because that pretty much validated everything the company did back in At the end of May of 2024, but this award, Golden Dome, is going to open up a completely new growth vector and way that investors see the company. And you've got TMT investors already maybe kicking around, and then there's going to be new sector investors who are focused on space because it's going to be a thing now for 2026. And then you're going to suck in all the defense guys. the defense specialists who probably haven't been looking at AST SpaceMobile. And once you get a Golden Dome Award, they're going to be like, oh, that's really interesting. Like, I need to go research that company and figure out if there's an opportunity to invest. And so yeah, it's an exciting time. And I think Q1 is setting up to be Huge, right? Like we've got a rocket launching, which is a big event catalyst coming up, which, you know, it got pushed off to the 20th, I think, due to some of the space conditions, but that's out of ISRO. Shortly thereafter, which will probably be early January, you're going to have BB-7. And my guess is we're going to get some PR in the next few weeks of the first batch of 3 Block 2 satellites that will be sent to the Cape Canaveral. I think that's going to happen relatively soon. And then probably not long after that, the second batch of 3. And so, yeah, against that backdrop, you know, you've got, we've talked about this before, but you got Powell who, you know, cut rates and it's, I think yesterday's meeting was quite dovish. And one interesting facet which people kind of forget is like, Inflation was, a lot of it was caused by Trump's tariffs. And so when thinking about the macroeconomic backdrop, like if there's, if inflation does get hot, Trump kind of has this funny lever now that he can pull. He can just remove tariffs on certain items and then inflation comes down. Funny, weird how that works. But yeah, the environment is solid. I mean, we've got all these catalysts coming up for the company. And we got this big one, which many of you guys already know, Golden Dome. Of course, it's not going to happen until— it's not done until it's done, but I am supremely confident it's coming. And I think, as I said before, the market, that is definitely not priced in. The market doesn't understand that. They don't know why AST SpaceMobile has any applicability. But it's coming and people, whether they like it or not, it's going to be shoved down their throats because, oh, this company is going to be a key component to power and provide communications and sensing for a golden dome. Like, I need to go learn about it. And maybe these people on Twitter with these red A's, like maybe they aren't half as crazy as I thought they were, which is funny to think about. Uh, so anyway, yeah, that's, that's what I had to say mostly. Um, let me just check and see if there's comments. I know, um, folks have mentioned in the past that because I'm doing this now on the desktop app, you can't actually leave comments directly in the space, but you can leave comments on the tweet that I put out for the space. So, um, let me see here. SpaceX V3 sats need an ASIC as well as Starship. V3 satellites likely not available no earlier than '28. That's true. Um, Elon has talked about the need for ASICs for performance for V3, but similarly to AST, they probably could just, you know, put FPGAs in first just to get those satellites up and running and do testing. And so, um, I think to get to the, the highest levels of performance, they will need that ASIC. And I remember Researching it a bit. And there's some people who are closer to Starlink who have said that they probably have been working on the ASIC for some time. So it's probably sooner than we think, but typically an ASIC is a 3 to 5 year process. They probably will have an ASIC ready sometime in 2027. And then, but if they go through growing pains like we did, it took a long time to spin up our ASIC and maybe that gets delayed by another month. But fortunately for us, our ASIC is ready and it's being integrated into satellites in the first quarter of 2026. And so that's another big win. So I wouldn't say AFTI, and we know Trump loves things that are the biggest. Yes, that's true. So Bluebirds, just from the ability to boast about having the biggest Bluebird satellites, the Block 1s are the largest communications array in low Earth orbit. And then those are going to be dwarfed by Block 2 satellites, which are 3 times bigger. So the ability to say that we have the biggest and most beautiful satellites, I guess that's another marginal benefit of giving us a big award. Let's see. Someone's asking. Okay, I don't see any other questions. All right, uh, or maybe here's some more. Yeah, there's— let's see, there's some— oh, someone's saying, isn't this the most risky stock to short at the moment? Um, yes, I think so, because you have— we're on the— for 2026, we have all these things that are these catalysts coming. And then this, again, this Golden Dome reward, I don't think is, aside from some crazy Space Mob members, I don't think anyone's really talking about it. If you look at the sell-side research, there's basically like no mention. I mean, there is the discussion of potential military use cases, but I don't think there have been anything about Golden Dome. The other thing is, I think like Bank of America, if you looked at like their 2026 and 2027 projections, like they have nothing for military revenues. And so yeah, as people kind of refine their financial models, they will have to revise forecasts higher. Like if you get a Golden Dome Award, that's huge. And you add that on top of the billion dollars of contracted committed commercial revenue from M&Os, you know, what does that get you? Right. And so those numbers are going to have to go up. And research analysts like Scotia who downgraded the stock based off of, you know, valuation, but not really thinking about what they were doing, they're going to have to reevaluate, you know, their research and question their choices in life, right? Especially, you know, when we get that award. Let's see. Can you mention discussions around solar power arrays and where you see this going for potential CapEx revenue capture? I don't know. It's early. I mean, the, so one thing I was thinking about is the fact that, you know, we are going to have these factories building microns and you can, these are building, as Abel has said over many years, these are building blocks. You can do all kinds of stuff with this. with these components. Those microns, that design has not changed since the beginning. So the initial microns for BlueWalker 3 were, I think it's 30 centimeters by 30 centimeter panels. And then for Block 2, they put 2 of those together. And then for Block 3, I believe each fold is like 16 of them. And so, you know, part of the change for block 3, sorry, not block 3, block 2, is that the unfolding mechanism is going to be a lot simpler. There's going to be less folds to get to a fully deployed array or unfolds. And so there's, in terms of reducing complexity, like that's really important. But then You know, when contemplating some of these future applications, you could see a world where maybe if the company's not going to directly, you know, provide satellites for certain applications, it might actually sell microns without the antenna side, but it might sell the microns to, or be part of, like, as a group. Silly project to provide the power. And so there's a lot of opportunities. I mean, I think as we mentioned before, you know, there's the ability to leverage the patent portfolio, which is 3,800 patents, and, you know, you can go provide licenses to other manufacturers who want to utilize the technology. But that doesn't seem to be the focus right now. The company is putting up production capacity because they want to go attack all these opportunities. And so for a startup like AST, I mean, for all intents and purposes, it's still a startup even though it's big, but going through production hell and trying to get production up to a level where they can attack all these markets. We talk about how it's an insurmountable wall of opportunity. It's like you stand up production and you go try to pursue all these things, and then there's more applications and customers coming to you asking to work with you, which I fully believe. I think for the AI data center opportunity, the company, again, there's not any Companies out there that are putting 6 to 7 ton satellites up in space. And that also includes SpaceX, right? And so having the ability to do something of that scale and size and having 100 to 120 kilowatts of onboard power, that architecture can be used for any number of applications. And yeah, it, Is that going to be a competitive advantage in 2 to 3 years? Not sure. The patents will be there, but then I'm sure we'll start seeing other people putting— if I was a defense prime, I'd try to build a similar type of architecture because it's clear power is going to be the biggest problem in space power. And of course the associated technologies to dissipate the heat. But yeah, we're well positioned. And I think going back to what I started with, I don't think we're bullish enough. And so yes, we can have 20, 30, 40, I mean 50% drawdowns as the macro backdrop changes. And who knows what the next few weeks will hold or next quarter or 2 quarters. But rest assured, like I think the company's opportunities ahead of it are very attractive and they're coming. And I'm very confident in that. So anyway, I'll wrap up the space there. As I said before, I'll probably have to do another space tomorrow or the day after. And Kook, you know, this perhaps like alleviates some of the pressure for Kook to cover everything. But yeah, man, we're in a very special place in a special time. This company is uniquely positioned and it's delivering You know, it's Constellation and it has the technology at the right time. And I think that's key. Like there is some aspect of luck to this where Golden Dome became something that was a focus for the country and the company has the right technology at the right time and is on the cusp of ramping production. And so unique candidate. to get, you know, a significant part of the Golden Dome, um, you know, awards. So I'll end it with there, and, uh, we'll talk again perhaps tonight or tomorrow or the day after. So thanks everyone for joining, and, uh, we'll talk again.
[00:41:34] Speaker A: Thanks for listening to the AST Space Mobile Podcast. If you enjoyed this episode and you'd like to help support the podcast, please share it with Post about it on social media or leave a rating and review. To catch all the latest news about AST SpaceMobile, make sure to subscribe. Thanks again, and I'll see you next time.
[00:41:59] Speaker B: We're doing something very, very big, and I think with this technology we can really affect billion lives. AST SpaceMobile is the only company that has proven technology to deliver To deliver cellular mobile connectivity directly from space to the everyday smartphone. People will just basically turn their phone on and be seamless. Regardless of where you are, we don't want the user even to know that it's connected by satellite. Our role is to bring this into reality, always in partnership with the NMO.
[00:42:35] Speaker A: Listen.
[00:42:35] Speaker B: Mmm, waffles.

GUID: e616c1e4-e24b-4e57-bf08-c5aed4019781 · Audio source · Model: claude-cli/claude-sonnet-5 · Processed: 2026-07-24T05:32:59+00:00