Episode
Anpanman talks on Space Stock Weekly V2
Anpanman is joined by two unnamed 'Stock Club' co-hosts (labeled Speaker D and Speaker E) to break down Amazon's newly announced $11 billion deal to acquire Globalstar. They cover deal mechanics, MDA Space's satellite-build role, and Apple's existing stake in Globalstar.
The group also discusses FCC Commissioner Brendan Carr's description of a 'three-player' direct-to-device satellite market (Starlink, Amazon, AST SpaceMobile). They compare Amazon's newly acquired spectrum against AST's Ligado-leased holdings, and debate whether Amazon's 2028 D2D rollout target is realistic.
The headline conclusion is that Anpanman views Amazon's entry as validating rather than threatening AST's addressable market, given AST's larger spectrum position, 3,800-patent portfolio, and locked-in multi-year MNO exclusivity agreements. The episode closes with an update on AST's own upcoming New Glenn 3 launch.
Key Takeaways
- Amazon announced an $11 billion deal (fixed at $90 per share, a mix of stock and cash with a stock-election option) to acquire Globalstar; the sale process reportedly began around spring 2025, with confidentiality agreements and serious talks starting in fall 2025.
- Amazon's acquired Globalstar spectrum amounts to roughly a third of the US spectrum AST SpaceMobile controls via its Ligado L-band lease, and roughly a third of Starlink's spectrum holdings, per Anpanman.
- FCC Commissioner Brendan Carr publicly described a 'three-player' direct-to-device satellite market — Starlink, Amazon, and AST SpaceMobile — in a CNBC interview the day of this episode, which Anpanman views as a positive regulatory signal for AST's pending approvals.
- Amazon plans to build its own direct-to-device satellites and has targeted a 2028 commercial rollout, but Anpanman believes 2029 or 2030 is more realistic, noting Amazon only recently began hiring for D2D roles and citing Starlink's multi-year gap between its 2022 D2D announcement and 2025 launch.
- Apple currently owns roughly 20% of Globalstar and controls about 85% of its satellite capacity; per Anpanman, the deal documents don't specify exactly how the Apple/Amazon/Globalstar relationship will work going forward.
- MDA Space had been contracted to build 17 replenishment satellites for Globalstar's legacy constellation plus a separate roughly 50-satellite next-generation 'C3'/Aurora-platform constellation; it's unclear how the Amazon acquisition affects these existing programs.
- AST SpaceMobile has multi-year mutual exclusivity agreements with AT&T, Verizon, and Vodafone that start once commercial service goes live, while Starlink's exclusivity with T-Mobile is said to expire this summer (2026), potentially opening a window for Amazon to approach carriers.
- AST completed a wet dress rehearsal for its next New Glenn 3 launch on the day of recording, with a static fire test scheduled for the next day and launch targeted for that Saturday.
- Anpanman estimates the Amazon-Globalstar deal implies substantial value for AST's 80-year Ligado L-band spectrum lease — floating a figure on the order of $20 billion — relative to AST's roughly $30 billion market cap at the time.
- Anpanman doesn't see Blue Origin/Amazon acquiring AST as likely near-term, partly because Amazon needs to get the Globalstar deal through regulatory approval first, but floats a longer-term (2-3 year) scenario where Amazon could pay AST to 'light up' its spectrum using AST's future Block 3 mid-band constellation if Amazon's own in-house D2D effort falls short.
- AST holds roughly 3,800 patents relevant to phased-array/direct-to-device technology, versus what Anpanman describes as one or two architecture-specific patents held by Starlink — a moat he expects to matter more as competitors scale up.
Detailed Discussion11 topics
Amazon-Globalstar Acquisition Deal Mechanics
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Amazon announced a deal to buy Globalstar for $11 billion, structured as $90 per share fixed, payable in a mix of stock and cash, with shareholders able to elect some Amazon stock.
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The process has been long-running: Globalstar reportedly put itself up for sale around spring of last year (2025), and Anpanman believes confidentiality agreements led to earnest discussions between Amazon and Globalstar starting in fall 2025.
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Some legacy pundits had speculated Starlink would be the one to buy Globalstar instead of Amazon.
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Apple currently owns 20% of Globalstar and controls 85% of its satellite capacity, but the deal documents contain no specificity on how the Apple/Amazon/Globalstar relationship will work post-close, likely because side letters cover those details.
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MDA Space was hired to build 17 satellites to replenish Globalstar's old constellation, and separately to build a new ~50-satellite constellation leveraging the Aurora platform (referred to as 'C3'); it's unclear from public filings what happens to these programs post-acquisition.
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The deal is not expected to close until at earliest the end of Q1 2027, with the possibility of extension well into summer or even fall 2027, given a long regulatory review process involving both Amazon and Apple.
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Apple and Globalstar reportedly cannot risk waiting for the deal to close without continuing to build out the replenishment and new constellations, so Anpanman expects the C3 constellation buildout to continue regardless of deal timing.
Regulatory Backdrop — Three-Player Market
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FCC Commissioner Brendan Carr, interviewed on CNBC today, framed the direct-to-device market as good for the American consumer and specifically described it as a three-player market: Starlink, Amazon, and AST SpaceMobile, while noting there could be additional entrants.
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By committing publicly to a D2D rollout, Amazon helps its own regulatory approval odds, since regulators view enabling a competitive multi-player market favorably.
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Brendan Carr naming Starlink, Amazon LEO, and AST SpaceMobile as the three direct-to-device players directly from the FCC chair is a good sign for AST, though he left room for more entrants.
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Anpanman joked that Carr's 'three-player market' framing implicitly excludes Globalstar as a standalone player, since it's now being folded into Amazon, and views the comment as 'saying the quiet part out loud' — a positive signal that AST's regulatory approval could be coming any day.
Spectrum Comparison: Amazon vs. AST vs. Starlink
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Amazon's Globalstar deal brings globally-harmonized MSS spectrum in the 2.4 GHz range that is roughly a third of the spectrum AST SpaceMobile now holds in the US via its Ligado lease, and roughly a third of what Starlink currently has.
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Globalstar holds 16.5 MHz of S-band spectrum for downlink, and 8.7 MHz of L-band for uplink — though about 1 MHz of that L-band is shared with Iridium, making it effectively closer to 7.7 MHz of usable L-band uplink — plus 339 MHz of C-band spectrum used for feeder links.
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This acquired spectrum is mid-band, meaning it's good for data capacity but not great for penetrating buildings or vehicles compared to low-band spectrum; Amazon gets no low-band spectrum from the deal.
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Globalstar's downlink is in the 2.4 GHz range and uplink around 1.6-1.7 GHz; only about 1 MHz of the L-band uplink is shared/split with Iridium, with the rest unencumbered.
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Amazon separately owns 11 MHz of N53 spectrum (near Wi-Fi, private-band, low-power authorized only) that could be used for enterprise private networks or consumer Wi-Fi-adjacent routers, but cannot be used to build cell towers or provide broad terrestrial service.
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The Amazon deal highlights the implied value of AST's 80-year Ligado L-band lease — Anpanman floats a figure around $20 billion — relative to AST's roughly $30 billion market cap, while also raising the profile of Iridium's ~7.8 MHz of L-band spectrum and Viasat's ex-US MSS spectrum as potentially valuable, underused assets.
Timeline Realism for Amazon's D2D Rollout
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Amazon announced it will start rolling out direct-to-device satellites in 2028, but Anpanman notes Amazon only began listing D2D-related jobs a few months ago at most, making 2028 a very ambitious target; he views 2029-2030 as more realistic.
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As a comparison, Starlink announced its own direct-to-cell plans in summer 2022 but didn't bring the service to fruition until roughly the end of 2025 — a multi-year gap Anpanman expects to be similarly understated for Amazon.
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Amazon's own LEO broadband service has already taken much longer than originally expected, reinforcing skepticism about the stated 2028 D2D target.
MNO Exclusivity Dynamics
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T-Mobile's exclusivity with Starlink is set to expire this summer (2026).
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AST has multi-year, mutual 5-year exclusivity agreements with AT&T, Verizon, and Vodafone (plus a few others), which begins running from the point commercial service actually goes online — so if commercial service starts end of this year or Q1 2027, the exclusivity clock starts then.
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AT&T and Verizon also contributed their 850 MHz spectrum to their AST agreements, which locks them in further; once exclusivity periods eventually expire, Amazon could potentially pursue AT&T, Verizon, or T-Mobile as future D2D customers, though MNOs are wary of the disintermediation risk Amazon poses given it already owns the consumer relationship.
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Amazon (like Starlink) lacks access to low-band terrestrial spectrum, which is the key advantage AT&T, T-Mobile, and Verizon hold — a structural constraint on both companies' D2D ambitions relative to AST's MNO-partnered approach.
TAM Beyond Smartphones
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The addressable market isn't just cell phones — it's every device that will ever need connectivity, and the growth over the next decade or 15 years is hard to overstate; even if AST got all 90 of its satellites up next month, they'd still face a capacity issue because market growth will outpace what any single company can serve.
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Amazon's press release specifically mentioned Internet of Things use cases; Amazon likely has keen interest in IoT, drones for delivery, and other connected devices, many of which sit off the terrestrial network or face capacity constraints.
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A Reuters article from March 20th reported Amazon is developing a new smartphone (after the earlier Fire Phone failed), which raises questions about how Apple views this.
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With three D2D players now active, AST's commercial focus will likely remain the consumer mobile phone market plus other connected devices like watches, while Amazon's use case looks more internal (AWS enterprise campus connectivity via N53 spectrum) alongside its own direct-to-device consumer offering serving Apple devices.
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Beyond the commercial side, the defense and first-responder business (not discussed in depth this episode) will be a significant driver of demand; AST's technology is expected to be unaffected by increased commercial competition in that vertical.
Consumer Experience and Roaming Friction
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As a layman new to spectrum dynamics, does the Globalstar/Amazon deal move into lower-frequency spectrum, and what advantage does L-band or lower/mid frequencies offer for penetrating buildings or vehicles versus AT&T's normal cell towers?
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The real value of Globalstar's spectrum for Amazon is that it's permanent and global — Amazon could differentiate by offering global roaming on its own network, something AST can't offer today without MNO partnerships (e.g., an AT&T customer roaming onto Rakuten's network in Japan).
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Since Globalstar shares L-band spectrum with Iridium, would that require split-linking and effectively halve potential uplink/downlink bandwidth?
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Only about 1 MHz is shared with Iridium; the rest of Globalstar's spectrum is unencumbered.
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It remains unclear whether Amazon would sell service directly to consumers, resell through Apple, or route it through MNOs, and whether Amazon might eventually try to bundle some service into a Prime membership — all of which would likely require an eSIM and add friction versus AT&T/Verizon's seamless, network-core-integrated switching, similar to how Starlink's roaming for non-T-Mobile customers reportedly costs around $20/month.
Could Amazon/Blue Origin Acquire AST? And Margin Compression
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Is there a situation where Blue Origin could acquire ASTS, and would three players in the direct-to-device market compress margins?
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Anpanman doesn't think a near-term Blue Origin/Amazon acquisition of AST is likely, partly because Amazon needs to get the Globalstar deal through regulatory approval first — acquiring AST on top of that would risk a regulatory mess.
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One possible longer-term (2-3 year) scenario: if Amazon's internal D2D R&D effort proves not good enough, Amazon could approach AST once its Block 3 mid-band constellation is up and ask AST to 'light up' Amazon's spectrum; alternatively, Bezos could eventually make Avellan an acquisition offer he 'couldn't refuse,' though Anpanman views this as unlikely near-term.
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On margins, a third player likely does compress ASPs somewhat (e.g., $15 vs. $12 vs. $10), but shifting a few dollars in AST's financial model wouldn't make a huge difference; more importantly, Amazon's entry may signal that the TAM is bigger than people think, similar to how multiple companies entering AI expanded rather than shrank that market.
Patents and IP Landscape
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With Starlink's custom silicon/terminal approach on one side and AST's direct-to-cell using existing hardware on the other, what intellectual property minefield might these companies encounter as they converge, and would licensing deals become necessary?
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AST holds a large number of fundamental patents (roughly 3,800 cited elsewhere in the discussion), while Starlink has developed maybe one or two patents specific to its own architecture; competitors will likely need to engineer around AST's patents, and whether AST offers fair-and-reasonable licensing terms is an open question the company hasn't focused on yet.
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With Amazon now entering, legacy/smaller satellite spectrum players (SES, Viasat, EchoStar/former Yahsat, Iridium) that previously announced D2D ambitions now face a market that's effectively 'game over' for them against three well-capitalized players, which may push them toward leasing spectrum or selling themselves.
Launch Capacity and Coopetition
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Is there any concern about Starlink and Amazon/Blue Origin having their own internal launch capacity as a competitive advantage?
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SpaceX has a ton of launch capacity available to paying customers, and AST's first two batches of Block 2 satellites are booked on Falcon 9, with more Falcon 9 launches planned this year; separately, AST is a large multi-launch customer of Blue Origin (distinct from Amazon), so that relationship isn't a concern despite Amazon's competitive entry.
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AST is also booked with another heavy launch provider, most likely Mitsubishi Heavy, though there's also a chance it's Arianespace.
AST New Glenn 3 Launch Update
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AST completed a wet dress rehearsal for its upcoming New Glenn 3 mission today, with a static fire test scheduled for tomorrow and launch targeted for Saturday; Anpanman won't be able to attend in person due to his kids' soccer games and will watch remotely.
Watch Items4
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New Glenn 3 launch (carrying AST BlueBird satellites)
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Amazon-Globalstar acquisition regulatory close
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Starlink/T-Mobile exclusivity expiration
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AST commercial service launch (which starts the AT&T/Verizon/Vodafone multi-year exclusivity clock)
Open Questions6
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Will Amazon's direct-to-device service end up offering true broadband-level throughput (competing directly with AST) or only a lower/'middle' tier of service, and how much would that actually eat into AST's addressable market?
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How exactly will the Apple/Amazon/Globalstar commercial relationship work post-acquisition — will Apple simply pay for continuity of its existing service level, or push for something more advanced that competes with AST/Starlink?
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Once existing MNO exclusivity periods expire (T-Mobile/Starlink this summer; AT&T/Verizon/Vodafone on AST's multi-year timeline), will Amazon pursue any of these carriers as direct-to-device customers?
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Could AST and Amazon eventually cooperate, with Amazon paying AST to 'light up' its spectrum via AST's future Block 3 mid-band constellation if Amazon's own D2D development falls short?
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As AST, Starlink, and Amazon converge on overlapping direct-to-device technology, what patent conflicts will emerge, and will companies need cross-licensing or FRAND-style deals to resolve them?
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Will a three-player market meaningfully compress per-satellite/ASP margins, or will the resulting TAM expansion (more visibility, more use cases) offset any pricing pressure?
Raw Transcript
Show full transcript
[00:00:06] Speaker A: This is the AST SpaceMobile Podcast. [00:00:09] Speaker B: It will just basically come to your phone and be seamless regardless of where you are. We don't want the user even to know that it's connected by satellite. Listen, the opportunity that we have is very, very, very large. [00:00:28] Speaker C: I'll talk about Globalstar, Amazon first, and then I'll hand it over. [00:00:32] Speaker D: I do have a hard stop. [00:00:33] Speaker E: That might be a short, a little bit of a shorter discussion than— the stock club's got like 4 announcements last week, so perfect. Let's start there. [00:00:40] Speaker C: Yeah, so Amazon, they announced their deal to buy Globalstar for $11 billion. It's a $90 deal, mix of stock and cash, but it is fixed at $90. You can elect some Amazon stock. And so yeah, they announced the deal today. This has been a long-running process that I think Globalstar put themselves up for sale middle of last year, maybe it was spring last year. And then I believe based off of the confidentiality agreements that were signed between Amazon and Globalstar, I think they started in earnest discussions sometime in the fall. Of last year. And so this has been a transaction that was expected to come. I think obviously there were some legacy pundits that thought that perhaps Starlink was going to buy Globalstar, but I think for Amazon, the deal makes quite a bit of sense. Amazon is competing with Starlink for fixed broadband with their LEO constellation, and since they already are going to be making satellites, This deal made sense to kind of fill that out, to have an offering D2D. It is a bit complicated given that Apple previously owned 20% of Globalstar and 85% of the capacity. I went through the deal docs. There's no specificity because I think there's side letters that go into detail exactly how the relationship's going to work. But at least from this point, they're going to try to work together where I think for Apple, they get a well-capitalized partner that knows what they're doing, or at least is willing to commit capital to get something accomplished versus an undercapitalized Globalstar management team that is stuck in transitioning from a legacy business to hopefully creating something new. And there are some nuances to this. So MDA Space was hired to build 17 satellites to replenish the old Globalstar system. And so that's like the, the, the old school technology. And then they were hired to, um, build out a new constellation of, I believe it's 50 satellites, um, leveraging the Aurora platform. And so based off of what I've read, it's a little unclear what's going to happen to that. Um, it does seem like, and this is why it's kind of weird because it's Globalstar and Apple and Amazon are kind of in a tweener process because the deal's not going to close until probably at earliest the first quarter, the end of the first quarter next year. But then it could, you know, there's the ability to extend the deal well into summer and then even into the fall. And so there will be a long regulatory review process, especially since it's Amazon acquiring them. And of course Apple's involved. And so For Apple and Globalstar, you can't risk waiting for this deal to close and not getting your constellation, the old one getting replenished and then working on the new one, right? So from what I can tell, I think they are going to continue to build the C3 constellation. And then Amazon today said that they are going to build their own direct-to-device satellites as well. And so from a, I think it's important to kind of parse what is realistic versus like what they're hoping to do. You know, there are aims, which obviously we all know space companies, for regulators and internal folks, and of course public investors, you have your aspirations and then what actually comes to fruition on what timeline can be very different. And so I think for Amazon, you know, why did they do this deal? They're getting global harmonized spectrum in the 2.4 range. It's MSS spectrum. It's about a third of the spectrum that Starlink now has and AST SpaceMobile has here in the US, but then they also, Globalstar does have a few other markets outside of the US. And so that's a benefit. But yeah, there's probably a bit of optionality here. I mean, you own spectrum now and It's likely that they'll find a good use for it. There is the Apple business, which Apple is going to pay them some amount of money to support Apple devices. But at the same time, it's unclear what that relationship means. If Apple is like, hey, we just want the level of service that we previously had with Globalstar, we'll pay you some minimum amount for that. Or do we want to offer something that's on the level of what AST is doing eventually, or Starlink and potentially be in competition with the MNOs, right? And so it's still early days. It's unclear exactly how this stuff is going to play out. But going back to what Amazon is doing, they are going to build their own direct-to-device satellite. I think there's a little bit of messaging here for regulators in that in order to get this deal approved, they're going to tell regulators like, hey, you know, they have ambitious goals. They're going to start rolling out direct-to-device satellites in 2028, which I think it's important to note that I think they started listing jobs related to direct-to-device, maybe it was like a few months ago at most. And so they're still really early in this process. And I think 2028 is a very ambitious goal, like probably something like 2029, 2030 is more realistic. And so I think, you know, and going back to Starlink, you know, they announced plans to do this in the summer of 2022. And it wasn't until basically this, I think, you know, the end of 2025 that the service actually came to fruition. And we know given Amazon's timeline for their LEO service. It's taken much longer than expected. But I think from a regulator's point of view, by saying that you're going to try to roll out service constellation in 2028, that's a positive for consumers. And from a regulatory point of view, we saw Brendan Carr today when he's interviewed on CNBC. He talked about how this is good for the American consumer, that this is a 3-player market where he mentioned Starlink, Amazon, and then AST. And then he was quick to say, and there's some other players as well, potentially. But yeah, so I think from a regulatory standpoint, it's good for, from the political perspective to say, hey, we're trying to enable a 3-player market. And so Amazon, by committing to that or saying that they're going to do that, it helps from an approval perspective. But that said, I think it's important to note that In regards to T-Mobile and Starlink, I think they have exclusivity that expires this summer. And then for AST, they actually have multi-year exclusivity with AT&T, Verizon, Vodafone. They have a 5-year exclusivity, mutual exclusivity. And then there's a few others as well. But for AT&T and Verizon, I believe those are multi-year mutual exclusivity periods. And that will start from the time that commercial service is actually online. And so If commercial service starts at the end of this year or the first quarter of 2027, then you would have, you know, some running period of mutual exclusivity. I think it's important to note that AT&T and Verizon also contributed their 850 MHz spectrum. And so they're kind of locked in at this point. That said, you know, when that exclusivity expires, then there is this possibility that Amazon could potentially pursue them as customers, or they could pursue T-Mobile. that matter. But I think the dynamics here are a bit weird because MNOs clearly understand the competitive threat that Amazon would bring to the table, given that they own the consumer. And if they tried to roll out this type of service, what else are they going to try to do to disintermediate the MNOs? However, that said, Amazon has the same problem that Starlink has in that they don't have access to low-band terrestrial spectrum, which is what T-Mobile, AT&T, and Verizon have. And so yeah, it's an interesting competitive dynamic. I think Amazon has enough internal use cases for this service to make it valuable enough. For example, they own the N53. It's like 2.4. It's right next to Wi-Fi, but a private band that they could run enterprise private network of 11 MHz of spectrum, and that can be valuable for enterprise customers. It could also maybe offer consumer Wi-Fi routers that would use this particular band, and so there'd be less traffic on it. That said, it's authorized for low-power threshold use, and so it's not like you can build out towers and hang up or build towers and try to provide some type of terrestrial service with that spectrum. And so yeah, for Amazon, obviously the satellite service is interesting to them. And since they're already going to be building satellites, why not develop a direct-to-device satellite to enter this market? And I think one of the important things about today's deal is that now you've got Musk and Bezos who have spent $23 billion and $11 billion on this market that Naysayers have said, you know, it's not, the market's not big enough. Not sure anyone will buy it. Well, these guys are spending multi-billion dollars to enter the market, and obviously Apple has already spent billions of dollars as well. And so, so yeah, it's an interesting development. I think it validates what the company's doing. And, you know, I think it also heightens and increases the company's strategic value to an AT&T, a Verizon, And then of course, you know, Google and Meta, who they're working with, and any number of other tech companies, and of course MNOs globally. But yeah, it's obviously, you know, from a near-term perspective, there's the market has to digest this and figure out, you know, does this actually, you know, does this eat into the potential TAM of AST and what they're doing with broadband direct-to-device? You know, is Amazon going to be able to offer broadband or is it going to be some type of middle type of service? Because I think, as I mentioned before, this deal gets them a third of the spectrum that AST has with Legato here in the US. And then of course, we're not counting the terrestrial spectrum from the carriers. And then for Starlink, this is a third of what they have. But yeah, 2028 is an ambitious timeline. I think they're saying that to regulators to achieve regulatory approval, you know, they, they talk about pursuing MNOs to work with, which not necessarily is going to be here in the US. It could be, you know, globally as well. And, you know, I would, I guess I would say that Amazon also competes with other tech companies and e-commerce players globally. So, you know, there'll be some competitive dynamics to deal with there. But yeah, this deal, you know, it's been rumored for a long time and I think the reaction from AST stock today, you know, obviously it's gone from rumor to reality and there's this mentioning of direct advice. And so people are, you know, they're going to need to digest this and figure out what this means. But I think it's still early days. Like we'll need to figure, we'll need to hear from Amazon and Apple, like what their plans are around this. But, um, but yeah, it's going to take time. It's going to take multiple years to develop a satellite. You know, what, what kind of architecture are they pursuing? If they What's interesting is that if they want to stay compatible with what Globalstar has today, then this is kind of the issue that Starlink has where they put out what I view as inferior architecture. Their future satellites are going to be backward compatible, as I've said. So are they going to kind of build on top of that? Which, that's a key question for Globalstar. But yeah, I think today's deal highlights Obviously the key value of Globalstar is their spectrum. And so this highlights the value of Legato that AST now has an 80-year lease for. Is that worth $20 billion relative to AST's market cap of $30 billion? I mean, you pick the number, but then also this highlights the value of Iridium spectrum. I know there's like some Iridium bulls out there and eventually if you're able to acquire that spectrum and clear out the legacy users, there is some value there in the 7.8 megahertz of L-band spectrum that they own. And so perhaps you could pair that with something else. And then of course there's Viasat as well, which Viasat owns some MSS spectrum ex-US. And is that company similar to EchoStar? Is it worth more dead than alive? Eventually, is that company going to get acquired or lease out its spectrum? But yeah, it's all interesting stuff. I think Maybe I'll just pause there in case people have questions, but never a dull day in space. And so I think for AST, we've got today, they did a wet dress rehearsal with the New Glenn 3. Tomorrow's going to be the static fire. It looks like Saturday is going to be the day of launch, which I know some people are going to move around their schedules to go attend. I don't believe I'll be able to attend because I've got several kids' soccer games this weekend, which I can't miss. So I'm going to have to watch it remotely. But yeah, maybe I'll just pause there if anyone has questions. [00:14:15] Speaker D: I'd say I have my kid's first soccer game this weekend, so that's one to manage. So I'm not jealous, but it's also one of the best things in the world. [00:14:25] Speaker C: Yeah, no, I look forward to, I like watching my kid's soccer games more than professional soccer. So yeah, I look forward to it. [00:14:35] Speaker E: That was either a really great compliment from a dad or a diss on all professional soccer players. [00:14:40] Speaker D: It's a little bit of both. Like, oh my gosh, you're watching a bunch of like first and second graders chasing after the ball and like the joy on their face when they get a score. And like, it's just— it's a different level of emotional connection you get when it's your kid out there versus watching some pro like play a play. [00:15:03] Speaker E: Yeah, I'm sure. I'm sure you guys are both great dads. Dads of the year. Back to space. But so, so I guess more more of a comment than a question, Ampman. But just just as far as I can assert, you kind of touched on the beginning. But I keep trying to tell people that like the end of this market is not everyone's cell phone. It is every device that's ever going to need to be connected everywhere. And so the the TAM is I just I can't like. describe the level of growth it's going to go through over the next decade or 15 years. And just to think that everything's going to be connected this way or have the ability to connect this way. And yeah, I've said it, I think I said it last week or the week before, that like even if AST got all 90 of its satellites up next month, they would have a capacity issue. Because I mean, I think the growth of this thing is going to be faster than any one company could take advantage of. And so it's great news that there's another massive I say competitor, another player in this entrance. I mean, the only other thing I would mention is that Brendan Carr today, with the interviews posted today, he basically said SpaceX, Amazon LEO, and AST SpaceMobile are the 3 direct-to-device players. [00:16:09] Speaker D: Yeah. [00:16:10] Speaker E: So, I mean, you're already getting it from the FCC chair. It's a good thing. He said there might be more entrants, but this is a good market as is. I don't know. To me, it was an easy case to Closed my covered calls. Yes, I shouldn't have opened them. Whoever's going to yell at me, but I did anyways. And then I bought, I added more of my calls when it dropped. So yeah. [00:16:31] Speaker C: Yeah, I would say, so in the future for Internet of Things, which was mentioned in the Amazon press release, and I think Amazon has a very keen interest around that, whether it's like drones for delivery, any number of connected Amazon devices. I mean, someone just reposted the Reuters article from March 20th that they're developing a new smartphone, which obviously the first Fire Phone failed, but they're coming back to market with a smartphone. And, you know, how does, what does Apple think about that? But, um, it's not about phones. It's about, it's about all devices, right? And especially for IoT, a lot of these devices are off the terrestrial network, uh, or perhaps like the, you're going to have some capacity constraints, right? For all these devices. And so I think you're right in that, um, When there's this proliferation of cars that are connected, robots, drones, you know, you name it, right? And this is just the commercial side of the business. Like we haven't talked about defense, but that's going to, I think, you know, be a pretty big driver of demand. And so having 3 players out there, you know, I think for AST, on the commercial side, it will be focused on the consumer mobile phone market and then any connected devices, watches, things like that. For Amazon, I think they are going to probably have this more internal, where if you have customers who are using AWS and they need connectivity in their campus, they're going to utilize this N53 spectrum. They are obviously going to offer direct-to-device in some way, shape, or form, which they'll need to service Apple's phones, which I think it's kind of interesting because I think if they are going to let MDA Space build out the C3 constellation, then maybe that's what's going to serve Apple's stuff and it's going to be very low level. And then Amazon Direct to Device, like they're going to eventually transition to that constellation. And it's, I mean, it's still early days. Like we don't know what they're hoping to achieve with that, but obviously it's going to be higher data throughput. It's not going to be the old school, you know, Globalstar satellites. So, um, yeah, it's a pretty exciting time. And I think, I think, um, Obviously, the market apparently is big enough for all these players, and and I think you you point out you know Brendan Carr today talking about a three-player market, which I kind of made a joke about it where it's like oh I guess it wasn't a three-player market before, so maybe Global Star didn't count. But but he talked about how it's a three-player market and talked specifically about you know like you said Starlink Amazon and ASD Space Mole. So He kind of said the quiet part out loud, which I think obviously is a positive for regulatory approval to be coming in any day now. [00:19:17] Speaker D: Just from a layman that's kind of new to this whole spectrum wars, I just wonder about like the, if I like look at this map, like not being invested in any of these companies and just considering like an end user, you're not going to be operating very like solidly in high-density environments because that's already covered by my like normal standard cell phone towers, 5G, all that stuff. But like when it comes to like, if I'm like out at my family's property out in like, you know, a county over where we're like deep into rural, I don't want to lose signal when I walk into a house. Does the GSAT deal also like move into lower frequency spectrum? And like what, what is their exact spectrum assets and what is Amazon expect to gain when it comes to like penetration of like a vehicle or a building or anything like that? Is there still an advantage in L-band or like lower frequency, mid frequencies? [00:20:22] Speaker C: Yeah. So what Amazon, the deal brings today, specifically Globalstar has, I just have some notes here. Globalstar has 16.5 megahertz of S-band. That's for downlink. And then they've got 8.7 megahertz of L-band uplink, although they share about 1 megahertz of that with Iridium. So it's really more like 7.7 megahertz of L-band. And then they use 339 megahertz of C-band for their feeder links, right? But this spectrum is all, you know, it's mid-band spectrum. And so it's not great for penetrating buildings or cars, things like that, but it's good for data capacity. However, they don't have a tremendous amount of it. And so for Amazon, they will be able to provide a data service that when you're out of the terrestrial network, it'll be pretty good. I mean, it depends on their satellites too, right? Like if they build a satellite that is similar to what Starlink's doing, then it's going to be limited and it depends on the architecture too. But then if they try to build something that's like what AST is doing, you know, a very large phased array, high power, then the service is going to be pretty decent, right? And so, um, that we're— it's still too early to, uh, to figure out like what they're going to do, but I'm sure we'll learn in the coming years, um, what their plans are. But, um, but yeah, this doesn't give them any low-band spectrum. It's L-band and it's S-band. [00:21:49] Speaker D: But that's like split link with the L-band, right? If they're sharing spectrum with Iridium, they're going to have to do like split linking. And as far as like sharing packets across the uplink and downlink and like half the potential bandwidth? [00:22:03] Speaker C: I think it's one, uh, just one megahertz that they share with, with, um, with, with Iridium on that, whereas the other one is, the other parts of it are unencumbered. Um, let me just look here, but yeah, it, but the, the downlink is in the 2.4 gigahertz and then the uplink, I believe is like 1.6, 1.7. And so typically you want your uplink to be lower megahertz because you want it to be able to travel and propagate versus the downlink where you want more data. And so the channels are wider. And so in this instance though, for Globalstar, yeah, what Amazon has acquired is permanently spectrum. They have spectrum here in the US and then they also have it for most of the world. And so that's the real value, right? Like if Amazon Wants to offer, like one thing where they could differentiate themselves is they could say, well, if you're on the Amazon network, you'll be able to roam globally. Right. And that's not something that AST can offer today. It would have to be in partnership with MNOs. And so if you were on, if you were an AT&T customer and you go to Japan, like there would be a roaming agreement with Rakuten and you would still have, you know, a direct-to-device service there. And then you know, if you're flying on a plane, AST, you know, this, the spec, the service will work for you. But what's unclear is like over various parts of water, like which MNO has control of that. And so, whereas Globalstar, I think it's pretty straightforward. Like it's just for most of the world, they have coverage. And so they'll be able to provide this. So it's, it's a very clean way of providing service. But, you know, the key question is like, who's selling it, right? Like, is Amazon selling it directly to consumers? Is Apple okay with that? Or is it going to be resold through Apple? Or if it's an MNO, like, are they comfortable in selling Amazon's service and then handing their customer off to Amazon? And, you know, obviously Amazon wants to control the customer. You know, does Amazon offer, like, even thinking further, like, do they offer some type of service as part of your Prime package? You know, how does that work? Which, you know, today, like, if you're a Prime customer, you can't obviously they can't give you any type of service over your phone because the MNO controls your phone. But then in the future, like, are they going to try to encroach in that somehow? Right. And it's a pretty, it's a pretty complex question because, um, you know, you, you would require some type of eSIM and, um, you know, that would, the service would only kick in if you were outside of coverage of AT&T, uh, similar to like, you know, how I think Starlink allows you to roam onto their network if you're not a T-Mobile customer, but you have to like get some eSIM and then it's pretty expensive. I think it's like $20 a month. So yeah, these are all really interesting questions. I think for the consumer, for me, for example, as a mobile phone user, I want something that's seamless and low friction, right? And so if you're going to roam onto an Amazon satellite network, that's going to be pretty high friction. In terms of getting the service enabled and then roaming when you're out of service. Whereas for an AT&T or Verizon, it's just part of your plan. And so when you leave, it just automatically switches, right? Because it's actually integrated into the network core. Whereas this is going to be something totally separate. So yeah, I mean, again, it's all early days, but we'll see how this unfolds. [00:25:33] Speaker E: Okay. At the— I'm going to I'm gonna we gotta switch to something else, but I wanted to get these couple questions into you real quick, and Finman, or whatever order you want to address them in. There is question around if there's any concern with Starlink and Amazon having their own internal launch—not really for Amazon, but close enough for Newgren—and then I mean we kind of addressed that before, but it is a. We talked about that one. And then there's somebody who's asking, is there a situation where Blue Origin could acquire ASTS? And then the last one was around margin compressions, having 3 players in the DDC market. [00:26:16] Speaker C: Yeah, so on launch, as we all know, launch is something where if you're a paying customer, you can get a ride, right? And so SpaceX, they have A ton of capacity. If you pay, you can show up and launch on them, which, you know, the batch, our first 2 batches of Block 2 satellites are going to be on Falcon 9. And I think we have a few other Falcon 9 launches this year. And so, yeah, Blue Origin is separate from Amazon. I mean, although obviously they're connected, but we have, we are a pretty large multi-launch customer for Blue Origin. So that's not really a concern. Um, that said, we do have, we are booked with another heavy launch provider. I think it's most likely Mitsubishi Heavy, but I think there's also a chance that it's, um, Arianespace as well. So, um, so yeah, so that's, I mean, within, within space, you have coopetition, like you might be competing in one area and then you're a customer in another area. So that's not anything new. Um, what was the other question? [00:27:18] Speaker E: Um, there was just a comment on if Blue Origin would acquire ASTS, and then if they address the margin compressions of having 3 players in the direct-to-device market. [00:27:30] Speaker C: Would Blue Origin— I don't think it's near-term that they would acquire ASTS. I think one scenario where I could see Amazon working with AST is in 2, 3 years' time, they put some R&D, they put people together, they try to come together, On a workable solution and it's just not good enough. And then they say, hey, you know what, AST, you have your Block 3 mid-band constellation up and running. Can you light up our spectrum? That could be one scenario. Or eventually, maybe down the line, if Bezos made an offer to Avell that he couldn't refuse, then perhaps maybe there's a deal there. But I don't think it's too early. And obviously Amazon wants to get this deal through regulatory approval. Buying AST on top of doing this deal, that would not be good. Like you probably would get stuck in regulatory mess. And so you need to do the Globalstar deal first. In terms of margins, yeah, it is a good question. I mean, the question is like, on the one hand, with the third player, does that hurt margins versus 2 players? Yeah, absolutely. Like the margins are, is Are you going to be? Is the ASP going to be $15, or is it going to be $12, or is it going to be $10? Right. But if you go through financial models of what AST looks like, you know, shifting around a few bucks here and there is not going to make a huge difference. But what this does is, and this is what I had posited earlier today, it's like by Amazon pursuing this market, does that imply something about the TAM being bigger than people think? And I think that's kind of the balance where. Because Amazon is pursuing this and it becomes more top of mind and people are, you know, start figuring out different use cases and applications. Does that actually expand the market? Right. You know, it's like if one company would just focus on AI, then people would kind of poo-poo it, but you've got like 3 companies focused on AI and there's various applications for it that does that expand the market? Right. And so I think it's important to note that also for AST, you've got the defense business and the first responder business, which for all intents and purposes, given our technology, like it's not going to be impacted. But, you know, Blue Origin, people forget, like Blue Origin is also putting up this enterprise-grade high-bandwidth constellation for AI data and compute. And so there's going to be a lot of constellations. There's a lot of, you know, AI data centers. I mean, the market is tremendous, right? And so the key thing is to differentiate yourself, have a technological moat, you know, 3,800 patents, but also lock up those MNO relationships, which is what AST has done. And so, but yeah, I think the market is going to surprise people in terms of the size because once you have this technology and platform out there, the applications, you know, some of which people haven't even thought of now, that's where the real like bread and butter comes, right? Not just mobile phone connectivity, but what other things can you do? [00:30:37] Speaker D: I have just one quick one for you, just because I know your time is fleeting and we're about to switch topics. But when you, when you brought up patents, that's where I think that that's going to be like a significant— because you have the SpaceX, like, their position at one side of the deal of like having custom silicon and Dishy McDishface and all that stuff, like, to require it for that to work. And then AST being direct-to-cell using existing hardware as LEO enters the market and potentially trying to meet in the middle there, what is the minefield of intellectual property that they could potentially stumble upon? Or what are the solved problems that AST or SpaceX might have like come across where they're gonna like pretty much trip on their foot and just like, okay, we might have to have some kind of a licensing deal, or we might kind of have to like do something along phased array technology in order to have the bandwidth throughput that we need to facilitate these customers? [00:31:35] Speaker C: Yeah, I mean, there's a lot of fundamental patents that AST has and Starlink, I think they have like one or maybe two that they've developed, which is particular to their architecture. And so, yeah, those are things that they'll have to engineer around or through. And, you know, the key question is like, is AST going to be, is it going to allow for fair and reasonable use for some of these patents? You know, are they, what kind of royalties or, or you know, how could they work together? Um, but yeah, that's not something the company has been focused on yet, but I'm sure as they continue to stack patents, at some point that's going to come into play. Um, I, I do think the, uh, one thing I forgot to mention is, is the fact that you do have all these other players like Link, SES, um, ViaSat, Equisys, which is the old Yasat or whatever. Um, all these players who legacy guys who are like, hey, I'm going to, you know, Iridium in there too. I'm going to enter this market too, which I poo-pooed on, but now it's like, great. It's the best thing since sliced bread. So I'm going to enter too. All those guys are now, you know, they see Amazon coming in. It's, I think it's kind of game over for them, right? Because it's hard to compete against these 3 players. And so what are they going to do? And so I think that's where like the strategic, whether it's like leasing agreements for spectrum or potentially, you know, selling themselves eventually, I think that's where some of that comes into play. But yeah, when you have all these patents stacked up and you've got 3 large players who are working with deep-pocketed partners, that makes it kind of tough for anyone else to enter at this point. [00:33:09] Speaker E: Sweet. Okay. I'm calling it. All right. [00:33:14] Speaker C: No more follow-ups. Thanks, guys. Just kidding. I appreciate it. [00:33:20] Speaker A: Thanks for listening to the AST SpaceMobile Podcast. If you enjoyed this episode and you'd like to help support the podcast, please share it with others, post about it on social media, or leave a rating and review. To catch all the latest news about AST SpaceMobile, make sure to subscribe. Thanks again, and I'll see you next time. [00:33:38] Speaker B: We're doing something very, very big, and I think we need to know that we can do really affect a billion lives. AST SpaceMobile is the only company that has proven technology to deliver cellular mobile connectivity directly from space to the everyday smartphone. People will just basically turn on their phone and be seamless regardless of where you are. We don't want the user even to know that it's connected by satellite. Our role is to bring this into reality, always in partnership to the animals. [00:34:16] Speaker A: Listen. [00:34:24] Speaker B: Mmm, waffles.
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