2025-08-12
54:34
Anpanman: Initial Thoughts on Q2 Update, TLDR BULLISH
Anpanman
Anpanman (solo, of the recurring co-hosts Anpanman and Kook) delivers an impromptu, notes-based recap of AST SpaceMobile's Q2 2025 earnings call, which he calls 'incredibly bullish.' He covers launch cadence, production, commercialization, spectrum, and financial guidance.
His headline conclusion is that the company is now fully funded for its 45-to-60-satellite constellation and is entering a sustained multi-launch campaign starting with FM1, ready to ship this month. He also concludes that government revenue will lead commercial revenue in the near term.
He argues that being short the stock now is 'financial suicide.' He notes Kook will host a separate, likely more detailed, space later the same evening covering the same call.
Anpanman: Initial Thoughts on Q2 Update, TLDR BULLISH
Anpanman
Anpanman (solo, of the recurring co-hosts Anpanman and Kook) delivers an impromptu, notes-based recap of AST SpaceMobile's Q2 2025 earnings call, which he calls 'incredibly bullish.' He covers launch cadence, production, commercialization, spectrum, and financial guidance.
His headline conclusion is that the company is now fully funded for its 45-to-60-satellite constellation and is entering a sustained multi-launch campaign starting with FM1, ready to ship this month. He also concludes that government revenue will lead commercial revenue in the near term.
He argues that being short the stock now is 'financial suicide.' He notes Kook will host a separate, likely more detailed, space later the same evening covering the same call.
Key Takeaways
- Anpanman describes AST SpaceMobile's Q2 2025 earnings call as 'incredibly bullish' and says the stock rose to $51.30 after hours from a pullback low in the mid-$40s (off an all-time high of $60).
- The company said FM1 will be ready to ship in August 2025, with the launch date to be mutually determined with ISRO afterward; Abel Avellan stated all future launches are independent of one another and not contingent on FM1's success or the deployment of its phased array.
- The company guided to 5 orbital launches by the end of Q1 2026 and said it expects to launch new satellite batches every 1 to 2 months on average through the rest of 2025 and 2026.
- AST SpaceMobile has completed microns for 8 Block 2 BlueBird satellites so far, expects a production cadence of 6 satellites' worth of microns per month by the end of Q3 2025, and is on track to complete microns for 40 Block 2 satellites in early 2026.
- The company reiterated $50 to $75 million of revenue guidance for the second half of 2025, mostly government-related, and reported $14 million in bookings this quarter (mostly gateway/infrastructure purchases from MNO partners), with roughly $10 million per quarter expected going forward.
- AST SpaceMobile said it has $1.5 billion of cash on the balance sheet and is fully funded for the planned 45-to-60-satellite constellation; it also terminated its $500 million ATM program after using approximately $493 million of it.
- Six satellites currently in orbit are being used by government customers testing 5 to 10 different unique use cases (per Scott Wisniewski), and the company now has 8 total US government contracts after 2 additional awards this quarter.
- The company guided to intermittent US commercial service by the end of 2025, and to UK, Japan, and Canada commercial service in Q1 2026.
- A $550 million special-purpose vehicle (SPV) tied to the Ligado spectrum transaction is expected to cover a $420 million payment in October 2025 and a $100 million payment in March 2026, meaning no out-of-pocket cash from AST for those two payments (though ongoing usage and interest payments still apply).
- Anpanman suggests watching Viasat (VSAT) stock, which he says closed around $25.55 (up from trading in the tens before the Ligado deal), as an informal barometer for whether the Ligado spectrum transaction is at risk.
Detailed Discussion8 topics
Market Reaction and Framing
6
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Calls the Q2 update 'an incredibly bullish call' and says it was exactly what the market needed, arguing the company is at a very different point than in 2022 or 2024 now that it is entering a multi-launch campaign and commercialization.
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Notes the stock ran to an all-time high of $60 before pulling back to as low as the mid-$40s, and says after today's call the stock is now at $51.30 after hours.
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Says some bears had been claiming the stock could fall to $30, which he argues would require an 'absolute failure' scenario (e.g., satellites not launching for another year or two, or a Midland factory catastrophe) that isn't reflective of reality.
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Says short interest had risen ahead of the print and bears were 'celebrating' yesterday and today, but argues that after this bullish update, given the launch cadence and path to commercial service, being short the stock now is 'financial suicide,' recalling that short sellers betting on an FM-1 delay in late May got run over as the stock rose over 100% in June.
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Highlights that 9 analysts from 8 different firms (Quilty had 2 analysts) asked questions on the call, calling this a 'pretty big milestone' compared to 2023 calls when sometimes only one analyst asked a question and retail dominated the Q&A.
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Notes some of the delays are reportedly related to the US government/defense customers requesting modifications to the satellites, which he frames as a 'good delay' since it reflects a large customer's engagement rather than a technical failure.
Launch Plan and Cadence
9
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FM1 is expected to be ready to ship in August 2025 (this month), with the actual launch date to be mutually determined with ISRO afterward; there may be sequencing tension with another important ISRO mission originally scheduled after AST's.
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Abel Avellan confirmed on the call that all future launches are completely independent of one another and are not contingent on a successful FM1 launch or phased-array deployment, meaning FM2 could in theory fly before FM1 if FM1's launch is delayed.
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Guesses FM2 could launch roughly 2 weeks after FM1, calling this his own estimate rather than something the company stated.
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The company guided to 5 orbital launches by the end of Q1 2026; Anpanman estimates this breaks down to FM1 and FM2, then 3 Falcon 9 launches with 3 BlueBirds each (6 total), then a 3rd launch (possibly New Glenn) with 6 to 8 BlueBirds — his own math totaling roughly 14 to 16 new satellites, or about 20 to 21 total in orbit including the 6 already up, by end of Q1 2026.
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References slide 7 of the presentation showing 13 planned launches sequenced against micron completion; by September there should be enough microns completed for 5 launches, and — reading the ready-to-ship timeline, with the standard caveat that timelines are contingent on multiple factors — launches 3 and 4 could theoretically be ready in November and launch 5 in December.
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The company expects to average launches every 1 to 2 months through the rest of 2025 and 2026.
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A launch payment to an unnamed partner was pulled forward from Q3 to Q2; Scott Wisniewski called this a demonstration of 'flexibility.' Anpanman speculates it could be Blue Origin (perhaps to secure more launch commitments or accept expendable-booster risk) or SpaceX (perhaps to secure backfill capacity), but says it's unclear which.
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The company said it hopes to average 6 to 8 BlueBirds per launch, which Anpanman says points toward Blue Origin New Glenn as the primary high-capacity vehicle, though he floats the possibility that AST could also pay up for SpaceX Falcon Heavy to get similar per-launch volumes.
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Notes there is flexibility to fill launch slots that other customers vacate when their satellites aren't ready, which he views as a potential low-cost opportunity given AST's growing stock of ready satellites.
Production, Manufacturing, and IP
9
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The company has completed microns for a total of 8 Block 2 BlueBird satellites so far; Block 2 satellites are roughly 3 times bigger than Block 1, mainly due to larger solar panels and phased array.
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The company appears on track for a production cadence of microns for 6 satellites per month by the end of Q3 2025, and is targeting completion of microns for 40 Block 2 satellites in early 2026; Anpanman says the new control bus ('tuna can'), not micron production, is likely to be the bottleneck.
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The company reiterated it will have up to about 400,000 square feet of manufacturing facilities across Texas, Europe (Spain), and other locations, supported by 1,200 workers; Anpanman notes the company did not specifically call out its Homestead, Florida site today, which he speculates is intended for government satellite production given its proximity to other defense primes.
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Mentions that 'Space Mob' community due diligence uncovered potential additional suppliers in Korea, drawing a parallel to sourcing/manufacturing choices tied to markets like India (ISRO) where AST is pursuing business.
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The company now has 3,700 patents and patent-pending claims, up from 3,650 previously cited.
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Notes the company is already thinking beyond Block 3 (mid-band) toward future satellite generations 4, 5, and 6, which he says was a key factor for Verizon in choosing AST SpaceMobile over Starlink, since competitors are still working toward first-generation parity.
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The company is procuring materials for roughly 40 satellites in order to avoid potential tariff impacts, and reiterated a target production cadence of 72 satellites per year.
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Abel Avellan said mid-band BlueBirds (serving Ligado L-band and S-band frequencies) will support spectrum from 1.5 GHz up to 2.6 GHz, which surprised Anpanman since he had believed the range only extended to 2.4 GHz; he notes this could open the door to using the 120 MHz of 2.5 GHz spectrum held by T-Mobile (via the Sprint/Clearwire merger) and SoftBank in Japan.
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Says Abel mentioned, though Anpanman is unsure he heard it correctly, that there could be up to 8 additional satellites potentially ready (though maybe not fully tested) just a few weeks after FM1, which he takes as a sign of aggressive production pace.
Commercialization and Government Business
11
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Says government is likely to dwarf commercial revenue for the first 2 to 3 years of commercialization, calling this his own guess, with commercial business kicking in afterward — comparing the dynamic to Starlink's consumer-plus-government business mix.
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Abel said the 6 satellites currently in orbit are being used by government customers testing different applications; Scott Wisniewski said there are 5 to 10 different unique use cases, which Anpanman notes is the first time the company has quantified that figure.
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Notes that bears previously argued the US government would never launch a defense-related satellite on an Indian ISRO rocket, but says the company confirmed it is doing exactly that.
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Scott Wisniewski said there could be some government contract awards before the end of the year, which Anpanman speculates could coincide with the 'Golden Dome' missile-defense initiative, though he notes no analysts asked about Golden Dome directly.
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The company said it now has a total of 8 US government contracts after 2 additional awards this quarter; Scott described these as 'programs of record' that can grow into hundreds of millions of dollars in revenue once past initial test phases.
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Scott noted AST's satellites are the largest phased arrays in low Earth orbit and can be built for about $23 to $24 million each, far cheaper than traditional government satellite primes that can cost hundreds of millions to billions of dollars per satellite over multi-year timelines.
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Says the company reiterated it tested with 'all US forces' and that US firms were involved in developing some satellites, suggesting FM1 and FM2 carry unique government-oriented capabilities that may later trickle down to the Block 1 fleet.
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The company guided to intermittent commercial service in the US by the end of 2025, which Anpanman says was a bit of a surprise to him, and to UK, Japan, and Canada commercial service in Q1 2026 — consistent with Rakuten separately moving up its own guidance from end of 2026 to early 2026.
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Notes Canada's carrier partner is Bell Canada (an IPO-era investor), though the company did not name Bell Canada specifically on today's call.
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The SatCo European JV is drawing interest from 21 of 27 EU member states, according to the company.
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Scott indicated other MNO deals are 'in the works' and hinted at upcoming strategic agreements; Anpanman guesses this could include a definitive Verizon commercial agreement, a Bell Canada agreement tied to Q1 Canadian service, and possibly Saudi Telecom or other Middle East telecom partners.
Spectrum: Ligado and S-band
4
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CFO/Chief Legal Officer Andy Johnson said the Ligado transaction remains on track to close and is now purely in a regulatory review process; the confirmation hearing originally scheduled for August 7 was pushed to August 27, reportedly due to a disagreement over a term with Inmarsat.
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Says he wasn't worried about the hearing delay, viewing it as a normal complication in a complex bankruptcy proceeding, and notes Kook has separately done research suggesting people close to Ligado remain bullish on AST SpaceMobile.
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Suggests tracking Viasat (ticker VSAT) — which merged with Inmarsat and stands to receive Ligado-related payments — as an informal barometer for the health of the Ligado deal; he says Viasat closed around $25.55, up from trading in the tens before the Ligado deal was announced, and that a sharp Viasat drop (e.g., back toward $10) would signal a problem with the Ligado transaction.
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On the recently acquired S-band ITU priority spectrum rights, the company said the deal effectively gives it priority standing to negotiate S-band licenses with regulators worldwide (outside the US and Europe, where S-band is already allocated), which Anpanman calls a strategic moat that would be hard to replicate.
Financials and Funding
8
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The company reiterated guidance of $50 to $75 million in revenue for the second half of 2025, with most of it expected to be government-related; some contract details may remain undisclosed if classified.
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Bookings this quarter were $14 million, primarily related to MNO purchases of infrastructure like gateways; the company said it expects roughly $10 million in bookings on average for the next few quarters.
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The company confirmed a $550 million SPV, backed by underlying Ligado assets and currently arranging bridge/term-loan financing, will cover a $420 million payment due to Ligado in October and a $100 million payment due in March 2026, meaning no cash out of AST's own pocket for those two payments (though ongoing usage and interest payments still apply).
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The company reiterated it will have $1.5 billion of cash on the balance sheet and said it is fully funded for deployment of the 45 to 60 satellite constellation, which Anpanman describes as the business being largely de-risked as long as the launch timeline holds; additional funding could still be needed if there are delays or new opportunities (e.g., a dedicated government-focused entity).
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The company said that once 25 satellites are in orbit, that initial constellation is expected to contribute meaningfully to covering operating costs, which Anpanman guesses relates to hitting service KPIs tied to government customers.
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CFO Andy Johnson expressed confidence that commercial revenue, government revenue, and non-dilutive funding sources will meet the company's funding needs; the company terminated its $500 million ATM program after using approximately $493 million of it.
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Andy Johnson said the company is shifting spend away from 'standing up the business' toward commercialization and strategic development, while noting the company would still seek additional financing if appropriate.
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The company reiterated it is pursuing roughly $500 million in Ex-Im and IFC funding and appears further along in that process, though the exact timeline is unclear.
Analyst Price Targets and Coverage
4
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Lists current sell-side price targets: Barclays $37, Roth $51, Deutsche Bank $64, ClearStreet $59, Scotiabank $42.90, and Cantor $30 (Cantor published an initial reaction today), with UBS still restricted; he expects some targets to be raised following the call.
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In response to a listener question, says he doesn't think analysts have enough visibility yet to model near-term government revenue into price targets, since the current government contracts are still exploratory, but expects this to become easier to model later this year as contracts expand.
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Says he believes there is a coming government revenue ramp later this year and into the first half of next year that most analysts haven't modeled, calling it underappreciated upside.
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In response to a listener question about an appropriate price target, says some analysts may be in 'wait-and-see' mode until FM1 is completed and launched (about 20 days out at the time of the call), after which he expects price targets to move higher as launch risk, government contracts, and potential MNO deals like a Verizon agreement materialize.
Listener Q&A
2
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Asked where to watch an upcoming UBS conference presentation, says he doesn't believe it will be webcast, though he has asked management about pushing banks to webcast such events when possible.
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Closes by noting he compiled and updated a running list of company milestones and near-term catalysts (last updated in June, now refreshed) that he plans to tweet out, and says today's call was exactly what the company needed to restore confidence around launch timelines and reiterate commercial-service commitments.
Watch Items16
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FM1 satellite readiness for shipment
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FM1 launch date (to be mutually agreed with ISRO)
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FM2 launch
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5 orbital launches expected
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Launches 3 and 4 potentially ready
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Launch 5 potentially ready
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Micron production cadence of 6 satellites/month
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Microns completed for 40 Block 2 satellites
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Intermittent commercial service in the US
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Commercial service launch in UK, Japan, and Canada
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Ligado bankruptcy confirmation hearing
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Ligado $420 million SPV-funded payment
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Ligado $100 million SPV-funded payment
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Possible additional government contract awards
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Potential new MNO agreements (e.g. Verizon definitive deal)
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UBS investor conference presentation
Open Questions7
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How will FM1's launch be sequenced against another important ISRO mission originally scheduled to follow it, given AST's own delays?
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Could FM2 end up launching before FM1 if FM1's launch date slips, given the company's statement that launches are independent of one another?
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Which launch partner (Blue Origin or SpaceX) received the payment pulled forward from Q3 to Q2, and what does it imply about manifest changes or added launch commitments?
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What exactly did Abel mean by up to 8 additional satellites potentially being ready a few weeks after FM1 — fully completed, or just late-stage production?
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Do sell-side analysts currently have enough visibility into AST's government contracts to model near-term government revenue into their price targets?
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What price target should an analyst assign to AST SpaceMobile following this call, given many appear to be in a wait-and-see mode pending FM1's launch?
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Will the upcoming UBS investor conference presentation be webcast for retail investors to watch?