Episodes

Anpanman states he believes the coupon is 2% and the conversion premium is about 20%, meaning if priced off today's $96 close, the conversion price would be roughly $115/share — he flags this as not yet fully confirmed, noting deal terms would be finalized and priced the following day.

Anpanman frames the ability to raise $1.15 billion via a same-day 'drive-by' deal as evidence AST has become a seasoned issuer with a deep convertible-investor base, which he says also paves the way for the company to eventually access straight high-yield debt/bank loan markets.

Against 369 million shares outstanding, 12.6 million potential new shares equates to about 3.4% dilution, which Anpanman calls 'really tiny,' comparing it to the company's $36 billion current market cap versus a $760 million (elsewhere stated as $700-800 million) market cap in April 2024.

Anpanman says AST's primary controlled global spectrum is its Ligado L-band spectrum in the US (and Canada), which he describes as 25 MHz of dedicated, unencumbered spectrum with no terrestrial service using it, meaning it can be lit up everywhere (not just dead zones) and used to help carriers like Verizon, AT&T, and Bell Canada offload network traffic.

Anpanman identifies three avenues for AST to acquire additional L-band/S-band spectrum globally: (1) partnerships, citing Saudi Telecom (stc), which already holds about 60 MHz of L-band spectrum in Saudi Arabia (30 MHz down/30 MHz up) that AST could light up via its 10-year commercial deal and $175 million prepayment; (2) regulatory allocation processes; and (3) acquisitions in a fragmented global L/S-band market.

Anpanman cites a same-day article in which Orange and Deutsche Telekom, key contributors to the EU's IRIS-2 satellite constellation, expressed doubt the constellation will get off the ground or perform comparably to Starlink, which he interprets as IRIS-2 'starting to fall apart' ahead of the EU's 2 GHz S-band spectrum reallocation process expected in 2027.

Anpanman speculates that in the 2027 EU spectrum reallocation, existing 2 GHz S-band holders EchoStar and Viasat are unlikely to retain allocations, and that AST SpaceMobile (via its SatCo joint venture with Vodafone) is well positioned to win an allocation, with Starlink also a possible contender depending on Elon Musk's political relationship with Europe at that time.

Anpanman interprets 'monetizing the capabilities of our proprietary technology to capture the evolving commercial opportunities related to artificial intelligence' as pointing toward orbital data centers and edge compute, and says the company would not include such specific, unusual language lightly given its typically conservative disclosure style.

Anpanman states the newly unfolded Bluebird 6 (Block 2) phased array can generate on the order of 100 kilowatts of power per satellite — a level he associates with 'Kardashev level 2' power utilization — and speculates (citing unnamed community estimates) it could be closer to 120 kW including the solar tail, versus SpaceX's V3 satellite generation which he says can do about 20 kW while aspiring toward 100 kW in the future.

Anpanman speculates that large tech/cloud companies (he names Google, Amazon, Blue Origin, Microsoft, and OpenAI as examples) are likely reaching out to AST SpaceMobile given its demonstrated high-power satellite platform, patents, and aerospace expertise, though he says he does not know AST's specific plans (e.g., building satellites for others vs. offering compute-as-a-service).

Anpanman says having $4 billion of cash strengthens AST's credibility with government agencies like SDA and MDA when pursuing large contracts, contrasting this with smaller companies on award lists that lack capital to actually execute; he references the Department of War's (Pete Hegseth's) stated shift away from cost-plus contracts toward a 'neo-prime' model requiring contractors to spend their own capital upfront.

Anpanman reiterates a theory previously discussed in the SpaceMob community that Bluebird satellites could 'quarterback' the Golden Dome missile-defense architecture by providing AI-capable command-and-control in space, given their power generation and communication capabilities, alongside other cited use cases like radar sensing, electronic warfare, jamming/spoofing, and backup GPS (the company has reportedly discussed roughly 10 use cases at a prior investor conference).

After this transaction, Anpanman says the two primary outstanding convert issues will both carry a 2% coupon and 10-year maturity, totaling roughly $2.3 billion in size, giving the company a decade to refinance or pay off if the notes don't convert to equity.

Anpanman says the company was previously fully funded for 90-100 satellites and funded through 2027, but this additional capital gives it flexibility to accelerate the design/production of the Block 3 (mid-band) constellation and start pursuing the 'next shell' more aggressively.

Anpanman cites an article claiming xAI is burning about $1 billion per month, and argues SpaceX will need to lean harder on commercial Starlink and launch revenue to fund that cash burn and related data-center R&D, meaning it can no longer credibly withhold launch services from customers as bears once feared.

Anpanman argues this distraction is a competitive tailwind for AST because it could pull SpaceX engineers away from Direct-to-Cell development toward data centers, and poses a philosophical question of whether winning the AI arms race could ultimately be a 'Pyrrhic victory' for heavy AI spenders.

Anpanman reiterates that Starlink's existing Direct-to-Cell service and its future V3-based service will remain technologically inferior to AST's platform based on what is currently known.

Anpanman argues carriers increasingly view AST as the long-term 'partner of choice' over the next decade because AST augments carriers' existing networks rather than competing with them, whereas Starlink's fixed-wireless home terminal service directly competes with MNOs' fiber and 5G home broadband businesses.

Anpanman says AST's challenge now is less about demand (everyone wants to partner) and more about sequencing — deciding which markets/partnerships to prioritize and stage given the constellation cannot serve all markets simultaneously once operational.

Anpanman explains that if the convert is placed mostly with fundamental long-only holders there will be little hedging pressure, but if placed largely with convertible arbitrage funds (he estimates maybe 70% of the issue at roughly a 60 delta), they may need to short an estimated 4 to 4.5 million shares to hedge, creating near-term selling pressure.

In after-hours trading (on Robinhood, which he notes is not fully reliable due to low volume), the stock was quoted around $89, down about $7 from the $96 close.

Anpanman confirms that some market participants likely had prior knowledge of the deal (either through being legitimately 'brought over the wall' as restricted investors, or through leaks), but cautions that trading on material non-public information while restricted carries serious legal risk.

Anpanman says hitting 5 orbital launches by March, a goal he'd floated earlier the same day, is 'not looking likely,' with 3 launches probable and 4 possible; he attributes delays partly to a backup in SpaceX processing (with 1-2 launch pads reportedly down) amid Dragon and Artemis missions competing for slots.

Blue Origin's New Glenn 3 (AST's launch vehicle) is expected no earlier than late February, and Anpanman thinks it will likely slip into February or March; the lined-up Falcon 9 launches are expected to slip into late March or early April.

Anpanman's overall expectation is about 3 orbital launches by the end of March, calling the timeline slip 'not great' but 'not the end of the world,' emphasizing the company's philosophy of not rushing satellites into space before they're ready.

Anpanman notes the successful unfolding of Bluebird 6 materially increased the probability of AST's U.S. commercial market access (SCS) application being granted.

Responding to a listener question on whether this will be the company's last raise, Anpanman says no — if a large government award (he gives a hypothetical $3-4 billion award) required additional spend the company hadn't already allocated for, it would raise the needed capital rather than pass on the opportunity, though he expects future capital increasingly to come from non-dilutive sources like commercial prepayments and eventually debt backed by revenue once commercial service scales; he also notes a pending $500 million Ex-Im financing application still outstanding.

Anpanman argues that raising capital ahead of major positive catalysts (rather than after them, as is more typical in biotech) is deliberate corporate-finance strategy to reward investors who buy in early, and expects further positive catalysts in the weeks/months ahead beyond the known launches.

Using a hypothetical early-Facebook dilution analogy, Anpanman argues dilution used to fund accretive growth opportunities is not inherently bad, pushing back on listener comments framing the raise simply as 'dilution.'

Anpanman closes by saying he and Kook feel comfortable with the rationale for this raise (viewing it as a sign of upcoming opportunities rather than distress), and that he personally added to his AST stock and options position earlier in the day and plans to look for buying opportunities if the stock falls further on the hedging-driven selling.

If BlueBird 6 had failed to unfold, the company would likely have still moved ahead with BlueBird 7, but the troubleshooting and complications from the first test satellite having issues could have slowed things down.

Two of the new 'tuna can' metal spacecraft were built for the SDA-related satellites, BlueBird 6 and BlueBird 7; it has been speculated that a solar tail or other government-requested add-ons may have been included on these, potentially delaying the build.

His guess is that BlueBird 6 was actually unfolded a handful of days before the official announcement; after a satellite reaches orbit, it must be detumbled and stabilized (using magnetorquers and Earth's magnetic field), have its thermal state checked and batteries charged, and the company waits for calm space-weather conditions (no solar flares) before unfolding and then confirms the array and signals are nominal before issuing a press release.

AST's use of low-band cellular spectrum, which propagates through walls, will let its service work seamlessly indoors, in vehicles, and on planes without requiring a clear line of sight to the sky — something Starlink will struggle to match even with the EchoStar spectrum purchase.

His own guess is that 5 orbital launches by the end of March 2026 'is not going to happen' — more likely 3 at best, with about 2 slipping into April.

He recalls the company has booked enough launch capacity for about 75 satellites this year — effectively overbooking relative to the 45-60 target — so Blue Origin's cadence (New Glenn currently carries 6 satellites per launch, rising to 8 once optimized) is a key swing factor.

He encourages the SpaceMob community to be patient with delays of weeks, months, or even quarters, framing the eventual constellation buildout and commercial service launch as 'inevitable' and urging investors to encourage rather than criticize the company for taking the time to do it right.

He expects the company will set a date soon for its Q4 earnings update, which he anticipates will be 'the most important quarter in the company's history' given everything currently in motion.

Anpanman says that quote initially worried him in 2022, but in hindsight it reads as a compliment: AST SpaceMobile — a startup — has now successfully unfolded large phased arrays 7 times (BlueWalker 3, BlueBirds 1-5, and BlueBird 6), putting it in the same elite class as NASA and intelligence agencies, a feat even SpaceX (which was 'terrified' of it) still hasn't attempted.

The company's DNA is described as 'measure twice, cut once' — succeeding on the first attempt every time rather than iterating through failures, which Anpanman contrasts with criticism the company has received for missing self-imposed timelines.

This approach was far more cost-effective and allowed faster innovation than the traditional SpaceX-style method of launching satellites, testing/calibrating them in orbit, and sending up new iterations when problems arose.

Anpanman recalls first hearing about the Block 2 form-factor change from company management in roughly fall/winter 2024, initially not understanding it would involve moving the control satellite from the center and radically changing the unfolding mechanism.

From the early-2025 disclosure to the successful BB6 unfolding, Anpanman estimates it was roughly a 9-to-12-month process to design, build, and fly a completely new spacecraft architecture that still uses the same fundamental 'micron' building block but assembles and encapsulates them differently.

The discarded LVA halves would remain in orbit for a decade or more before deorbiting and burning up, and regulators are now requiring that any jettisoned LVA pieces carry their own propulsion to deorbit faster — an added weight and cost that motivated AST to redesign around a fully self-encapsulated 'tuna can' structure with no debris left behind.

Block 1 fused at most 2 microns together per rigid section before hinges connected them; Block 2 fuses 8 microns together into larger rigid rectangles, reducing the number of hinges and minor-unfold points needed, making the mechanism simpler and less prone to failure — though the fewer, larger unfolding motions place more mechanical stress on each fused section (a 2,400 sq ft unfold versus 693 sq ft).

Anpanman assumes the company reinforced/hardened the hinges and fused-micron joints to handle the added stress from the larger single-arm unfold, though this is inference rather than a company statement.

SpaceMob community members closely tracking the satellite (cited as Katsy and Toad) predicted with high confidence that the array had physically unfolded a few days before the company's official announcement.

Community sleuthing (a post, possibly from a Korean investor following LinkedIn) noted that AST SpaceMobile employees and partner-company personnel were liking a social media post suggesting BlueBird 6 had unfolded according to tracking data, which Anpanman says was used to infer the deployment had likely succeeded before the formal PR.

Anpanman argues that successful space investing requires patience and an understanding that satellite deployment involves risks not present in ordinary consumer product businesses — launch-vibration damage, unhardened radiation-induced chip failures, and extreme thermal swings can all cause failures, and redundant systems (including the phased array's ability to keep operating even if some microns fail) are built in to mitigate this.

Anpanman references community pushback and anxiety on Twitter/Reddit during the days between the presumed unfold and the official announcement, with some fearing the satellite had failed; he attributes this to a broader space-sector sell-off and general volatility amplifying worst-case thinking.

Anpanman relays a comment attributed to community member 'Tut' that founder/CEO Abel Avellan has not sold a single share of AST SpaceMobile stock across its full range, from around $2 to $130, as a reason to trust management's conviction.

Anpanman states the company is now '7 for 7' on major satellite/array deployments with no failures yet, though he acknowledges that at some point a satellite will likely fail or get 'bricked' as the constellation scales.

Anpanman argues AST's Block 2 array/technology is 'far superior' to Starlink's V2/V2.5 direct-to-cell satellites (which he describes as roughly 650 satellites currently in service) and even to Starlink's planned V3 satellites intended to launch on Starship.

Starlink's satellite design is described as simpler and cheaper (a flat plate with solar-panel-style deployables), which allows mass production but limits how large a phased array they can practically deploy, unlike AST's large fused-micron array approach.

BlueBird 7 is expected to launch on Blue Origin's New Glenn 3 as early as late February 2026, though Anpanman thinks it's more likely to occur in March 2026.

New Glenn 3 will most likely reuse the New Glenn 2 booster, though there is a chance a new booster will be used if the New Glenn 2 booster can't be refurbished in time.

Based on due diligence, Anpanman believes the company is already producing satellites at a cadence of about 6 per month, and expects the upcoming Q4/quarterly update to be full of production-cadence detail, with one batch of 3 satellites hopefully shipped to Cape Canaveral by then.

Anpanman states the company will not hit the informally watched target of 5 orbital launches by the end of Q1 2026 — he expects only about 3 total (BlueBird 7 on New Glenn plus one more batch of 3 by end of March), with the remaining 2 batches slipping into April.

Anpanman mentions the company has previously invited investors to launch events via a selection/lottery process, and notes that even without an invitation, good public viewing of the BlueBird 7 launch is available from within a few miles of the Cape Canaveral launch site.

Kook recaps that the market fell apart initially on broad AI-sentiment weakness, then ASTS rallied when investors connected AI/space-datacenter narratives to the stock, then sold off after Amazon announced a fixed-wireless satellite constellation seen as SpaceX competition, before recovering once the market realized that announcement wasn't relevant competition to ASTS.

Kook cites 'US testing began' as an exciting fundamental data point from the past week, framing it as further proof that FirstNet spectrum access is progressing, and separately notes 'the international spectrum is a go.'

Kook discusses an amateur/community visual sighting of FM1 (the first Block 2 BlueBird, i.e. BlueBird 6) that looked 'a little hazy'; based on his own satellite-tracking data (drag data that spiked then settled), he believes the satellite has likely unfurled its antenna array, though the company has not announced it.

Kook lays out three possible explanations for AST not announcing an FM1 unfurl: (1) it hasn't actually unfurled yet; (2) it has unfurled but the company is holding the announcement to package with other news; or (3) it unfurled and the company saw no need to announce since the community (Space Mob) had already tracked it themselves.

Kook says FM2 (the next Block 2 BlueBird) is 'on deck' for launch on New Glenn 3, and asks listeners to DM him any insights — even hearsay — on New Glenn 3's launch date/status so he can cross-check with other sources.

Kook highlights community analyst 'Only Six Inches,' who tracks AST SpaceMobile headcount data and found that headcount growth has gone 'parabolic' even in an era of AI-driven efficiency gains; Kook interprets this as the company aggressively moving to capture a large total addressable market (TAM) rather than waiting to validate demand.

Kook says 'FirstNet is definitely happening,' citing FirstNet officials testifying (a link he included in the show notes) as continued evidence of progress on the FirstNet spectrum opportunity discussed in a prior episode.

Kook describes an adversary-proceeding-adjacent dispute in the Ligado bankruptcy docket where Viasat is 'trying to be annoying,' which he views as proof that the Ligado spectrum access is valuable; he notes the presiding judge does not seem tolerant of parties trying to obstruct the process, and a public notice for Ligado is proceeding, which he expects to lead to further developments supporting AST's future growth.

Kook discusses a newly surfaced data point — he believes disclosed in a Vodafone-related document, though he's not fully certain of the source — showing AST SpaceMobile's satellites can achieve spectral efficiency of about 6 bits per hertz, versus prior community assumptions of roughly 2-3 bits/hertz; combined with spectrum reuse multiplying capacity, he says this points to data capacity far higher than previously modeled. He credits community analyst 'Dr. Mike' (a PhD holder) with finding and detailing this in a retweeted post.

Kook states his 'first commandment' of Space Mob analysis is that 'spectrum will always flow to the most efficient use,' crediting a community member 'Katsy' for the framing, and ties the new spectral efficiency data to this thesis as reinforcing AST's positioning as the most efficient user of spectrum.

Kook notes an FCC filing shows AST SpaceMobile testing with iPhone 17 series phones (a find credited to community member 'Katsy'), and frames this as the 'Apple ASTS story' gaining momentum, contrasting it with prior market reactions where Bloomberg articles about SpaceX-Apple speculation caused ASTS to drop ~10% even though (in his view) SpaceX is merely hoping its system will work with Apple, unlike AST's actual testing relationship.

Kook describes reporting that Apple's vision for the iPhone 18 and later models is to make satellite connectivity 'natural' — eliminating the need to point the phone at the sky, with future iPhones maintaining satellite connections while in a pocket and seamlessly switching between cellular and satellite networks — which he argues effectively describes AST SpaceMobile's technology without naming the company.

Kook cites a Forbes article comparing SpaceX and AST SpaceMobile that states AST SpaceMobile 'is developing much more sophisticated satellites, with massive phased array antennas to compensate for the limited power antennas of today's phones,' quoting an unnamed 'Professor Freya' saying 'what will work best remains to be seen.' Kook views this open-ended framing as evidence the market hasn't yet priced in AST's advantage, supporting his belief the stock still has room to run toward $100.

Kook notes that Michael Pollack, AST SpaceMobile's EVP of Government Operations, is scheduled to speak at 'SatShow 2026'; he says an unnamed, experienced (possibly retired) source told him to watch SatShow, which he views as fitting given AST's ramp-up of its government/defense business.

Kook says Elon Musk revived talk of a SpaceX-branded phone, framing it in terms of reaching an advanced ('Kardashev-level') civilization, and notes Apple has reportedly declined to give SpaceX/Globalstar additional spectrum, prompting Musk to respond combatively; Kook says Musk's denials of the phone plan actually increase his confidence that a SpaceX phone effort is real, calling it consistent with Musk's direct-to-consumer business style.

Kook speculates Musk may be shifting focus toward a proposed AI-data-center-in-space concept — citing up to 1 million satellites intended to power AI/robotics — which Kook thinks could serve as a strategic 'off-ramp' from the direct-to-device market where Musk may have 'mispositioned' relative to AST SpaceMobile; he also notes the SpaceX IPO ('the X ticker') is proceeding.

Kook references a patent find by community member 'Tom Chattafitness' (aka 'Timmy Turbo') showing that AST SpaceMobile CEO Abel Avellan had data-center-related concepts reflected in AST patents from years ago, which Kook cites as evidence Avellan anticipated this space/AI-datacenter direction as well.

Kook says SpaceX has filed last-minute legal opposition ('lawfare') against AST SpaceMobile in an ongoing regulatory docket, that the docket is progressing, and that his own guess is full SCS/FCC approval could come within roughly the next month; he says community member @justbar is monitoring the FCC dockets and will be the one to break the news when approval happens.

Kook attributes recent market turmoil partly to a 'readjustment period' tied to Fed-related dynamics (referencing 'Warsh') and seasonal factors, noting this volatility tends to make people bearish near local bottoms.

Kook warns against a newly available double-leveraged ASTS ETF, explaining that leveraged products suffer significant theta/tracking-error decay in a choppy, non-directional stock and are only favorable if the stock moves in one direction continuously; he reiterates that shorting ASTS is inadvisable and that investors should avoid leveraged vehicles unless they fully understand the mechanics.

Kook closes by restating his belief that AST SpaceMobile is heading toward a $100 stock price, framing the remaining risks/uncertainties as things that, once resolved, should push the stock higher, and urges the community to keep researching, stay disciplined, and remain grateful rather than 'jinxing' the outcome. He says he will host the next session on Sunday, earlier than usual due to being on the East Coast.

He speculated (explicitly uncertain) that Bitcoin could fall further to $30,000-40,000, or could eventually retest its $126,000-128,000 high — 'who knows' — but said he would only buy a small amount at lower levels since crypto is not an asset he wants to hold in size.

He flagged the 'paradox' that software companies seen as AI-disruption targets (FactSet, S&P, Moody's, Morningstar) sold off sharply the same day, which he attributed — with some uncertainty ('I guess it was...') — to Anthropic announcing a new model able to produce a comprehensive research report that would otherwise take a human analyst days.

He argued AI-generated research reports are useful 'primers' but feel flat and lack human judgment, and that his own manual process of building financial models in a spreadsheet (citing his work on T1 Energy's equity offering, convertible notes, and 45X tax credit sale proceeds) is what actually helps him learn and understand a company, versus just reading an AI-generated summary.

He believes markets have swung too far in pricing in software's destruction by AI, drawing an analogy to the overreaction around April tariffs, which he said ultimately did not damage the economy as feared (with SPY recovering from below $500 to around $677) and in some respects helped by forcing manufacturing reshoring (citing new US semiconductor fabs and his T1 Energy solar investment).

He argued investors worried about AI disruption should favor 'hard physical industries' like energy and space, since AI cannot build or launch multi-ton satellites (though it could help operate them), also citing his investment in Strata Critical (a medical logistics/organ-transplant company) as similarly AI-resistant.

His personal rule of thumb, learned across the 2008 financial crisis, the US credit downgrade, COVID, and the April tariff tantrum: get aggressive allocating capital once VIX rises above 50 (extreme fear), and go 'all in' once VIX exceeds 70-80 — a threshold he says he's only seen twice in his career, hitting roughly 84 during COVID and roughly 90 during the 2008 financial crisis.

On new Fed chair prospect Kevin Warsh (whom he described as hawkish), he speculated that despite the hawkish reputation, Warsh — viewing this as his 'last chance' — would likely align closely with Trump, including on cutting/accommodative policy, and that a hawkish background gives him useful cover to justify cuts.

Real-time inflation tracker Truflation showed year-over-year inflation dipping under 1% recently and back to roughly 1% at time of recording; he said Truflation data runs roughly 1-3 months ahead of official Fed data, contrasting this with a Fed governor's comments that inflation remains 'stubborn,' and cited a reversal/selloff in precious metals (which he'd previously flagged as an inflation concern) as additional evidence of disinflation.

He flagged potential US conflict with Iran as a real exogenous market risk, but speculated markets could handle it 'okay' if the outcome were conventional/contained regime change without nuclear escalation (drawing a comparison to a 'Venezuela type' outcome), noting historically wars have often been economically positive.

He explained the risk of selling cash-secured puts in high-volatility periods: even if the underlying stock doesn't move, a spike in implied volatility can sharply inflate the value of an already-sold put (e.g., a put sold for $1 could become worth $3), and if the stock does fall sharply and the put goes in the money, the investor may be forced to take delivery of a stock that fell for a genuinely bad reason (e.g., a failed drug trial in biotech).

He similarly cautioned against covered calls, arguing sellers cap their upside while retaining full downside exposure, and that selling a call against a long stock position is economically equivalent to shorting an in-the-money synthetic put; he said modest covered-call income on a small position portion can make sense but sellers often have a false sense of security about the risk.

He does not think the ongoing deleveraging will push VIX to 40-50, estimating it might reach around 30 (versus roughly 22 at time of discussion), and characterized the liquidations so far as 'somewhat orderly' and across the board.

He warned against anchoring to a stock's prior high (e.g., investors who saw AST hit $130 and refuse to sell any shares on margin because they expect it to return there) as a reason to neglect margin balances, which can force forced selling if the stock later falls (e.g., to $70).

He recommended using pullbacks to 'upgrade' a portfolio — consolidating lower-conviction, less-understood positions into higher-conviction ones — when everything is trading down together at a correlation near 1, since marginal/speculative positions are typically the ones that get cut and can cause the most damage in a downturn.

As an alternative to margin, he described selling some stock to buy call spreads (e.g., buying a call roughly 10% out of the money and shorting a call roughly 40% out of the money) to add leverage more cheaply during high-volatility periods, since a market rebound would compress volatility and let the short call be bought back cheaply.

He disclosed a personal trade: when AST fell to $50 in November (implied 2025), he sold roughly 2,000-3,000 shares and used part of the proceeds to buy January call spreads, which he said ultimately made him approximately $2-3 million when he closed the position with the stock around $90.

He advised setting a pre-planned profit-taking strategy — selling a portion of a position after it multiplies one's net worth by a chosen target, and setting aside money for taxes — so that subsequent drawdowns don't cause emotional distress; he said he repeatedly tells Kook to do this but Kook doesn't listen.

Despite AST trading down to $91-92 intraday and hitting $87 after hours, he said he isn't emotionally affected given his long-term conviction, citing upcoming catalysts, the company being 'on the cusp' of launching commercial service, ongoing defense work, and the administration's focus on space.

He compared AST's price to Bitcoin's over time: in September 2024, when Bitcoin was near $60,000, AST traded around $24; now, with Bitcoin similarly near $65,000 after major deleveraging, AST trades in the $90s (down from a $130 high), which he says reflects substantial fundamental progress despite the recent pullback.

He is bullish heading into the anticipated SpaceX IPO, arguing that beyond the rational sizing of the comms, military, and data-center opportunity, the resulting attention and 'euphoria' will surprise to the upside for the direct-to-device sector broadly.

He speculated that AT&T's pending acquisition of EchoStar's nationwide, unused 20 MHz x 20 MHz block of 600 MHz spectrum could be a 'game changer' if AT&T dedicates it to AST service, and that Verizon might then follow suit and dedicate spectrum for AST as well.

He suggested Apple should consider making a strategic investment in AST SpaceMobile to control its own connectivity 'destiny' as SpaceX/Starlink increasingly moves toward offering its own phone hardware and mobile service.

He speculated SpaceX could ultimately build its own phone operating system, drawing an analogy to how Elon Musk built xAI from scratch and noting Musk's pattern of not relying on others' technology across his companies.

He reiterated his view that AI will not disrupt the space sector or hard physical manufacturing (satellites, microns, processors, solar panels, radiation hardening) the way it may disrupt software, and that AI itself will ultimately be a consumer of AST's communications services and of data-center capacity.

The prior day saw momentum/growth and other high-beta or 'winning' sectors sell off hard versus value, dividend-yield, and consumer-staples names; Anpanman frames this as healthy consolidation after a strong start to the year, not something out of the ordinary.

Crypto's gains since Donald Trump won the presidency have now been completely wiped out, putting crypto around a 50% drawdown from highs; Anpanman notes 80-90% drawdowns are historically 'a feature, not a bug' for crypto and says he personally might start considering re-entering at a 60-70% drawdown, focused on blue chips like Bitcoin or Ethereum.

Risk management advice: do not use margin during periods of high volatility; if using margin, do so judiciously with tight risk limits, and ask whether you could survive another 10-30% drawdown — if not, get off margin.

Compares the current drawdown to the April tariff scare, which in hindsight was a major buying opportunity rather than a lasting problem; cites Kook's comment during a weekend X Space that prior volatility events (COVID, the tariff scare, the 2011 US credit downgrade) all look like 'blips' in hindsight.

Recalls that roughly mid-2025 (around Q3 or over the summer), news leaked that Apple and Starlink were testing together, causing ASTS to drop 10-15% on FUD pushed by Musk-aligned accounts; Anpanman argues this was expected/unremarkable since Apple routinely tests its devices with every satellite service an MNO (in that case T-Mobile with Starlink) wants to use.

Argues that truly seamless, in-pocket, indoor-capable satellite service is only physically achievable using low-band cellular spectrum, and that AST SpaceMobile is the only provider positioned to deliver that — not Globalstar, not Starlink.

Starlink satellites are architected to work only with mid-band spectrum due to phased-array antenna element spacing and wavelength physics; the same satellites cannot be reconfigured to light up 600 MHz spectrum — an entirely new satellite would be required to serve low-band frequencies.

AST's fixed-cell beamforming lets satellites project stationary hexagonal coverage cells on the ground even as the satellite moves, allowing precise, pinpoint coverage of gaps (e.g., an example area between the Hamptons and New York City) without interfering with already-covered areas like NYC's existing terrestrial network — this is what lets carriers reuse their own cellular spectrum via AST and even decommission underused towers.

Starlink's beams move with the satellite and operate at much higher power, which Anpanman says causes interference; as a result, no MNO wants Starlink operating near their cellular spectrum, since it would degrade the carrier's own terrestrial service.

Estimates each AST low-band satellite can generate around 2,500 fixed cells, while Block 3 mid-band satellites will be able to generate around 10,000 fixed cells per satellite.

Compares the implications to 'Avengers Endgame,' arguing Apple, Google, Samsung, and every global MNO 'should be shaking in your boots' because Elon Musk is coming after their core businesses; says AST SpaceMobile's strategic value 'shot up' with this news, though not yet reflected in the market given the broader risk-off day.

Predicts a SpaceX phone would run Musk's own operating system rather than Apple's or Google's ecosystem, consistent with his broader AI ambitions — part of a deliberate Musk 'vertical stack' spanning hardware, OS, and connectivity.

A SpaceX phone would primarily rely on mid-band Starlink Direct-to-Cell spectrum, which Anpanman calls architecturally flawed: it can't support voice over LTE (must use VoIP) because satellite handoffs occur every 2-3 minutes, making voice calls choppy; indoor use would also be poor, potentially requiring a separate Starlink fixed-wireless router/Wi-Fi setup at home.

Expects the service to be pretty bad in dense, high-user areas but decent for data in suburban or remote areas.

Predicts T-Mobile could ultimately be forced into an MVNO-style roaming agreement with SpaceX/Starlink (similar to Boost Mobile or Mint Mobile arrangements), since having introduced the Starlink brand to its customers already, T-Mobile risks losing subscribers to a SpaceX-branded phone and service unless it partners and collects roaming fees.

Frames the dynamic as a 'prisoner's dilemma' among MNOs: whichever carrier partners with SpaceX risks having its subscriber base hollowed out, but may get hollowed out regardless if it doesn't partner.

Concludes that AST SpaceMobile becomes the critical neutral strategic partner — outside the SpaceX/Tesla/xAI ecosystem — for Apple, Google, Samsung, and the ~50 MNOs globally that AST partners with, both for direct-to-device communications and, longer term, for data centers.

Describes AST SpaceMobile as the only non-legacy-prime company building multi-ton (4-6 ton) satellites capable of generating around 100 kilowatts of power with onboard processing — effectively already performing data-center-like functions today, but for communications.

References an Elon Musk tweet or interview from that morning claiming space-based data centers could reach parity with terrestrial data centers within 3 years; Anpanman calls this 'very optimistic' but agrees directionally that space-based computing is where things are headed.

Argues AST becomes central to a coming 'battle for space-based computing and communication' against the SpaceX/Musk ecosystem, given AST's existing relationships with Apple, Google, AT&T, Verizon, Vodafone, Orange, and Telefonica — companies that also run fiber, data-center, and hosting businesses of their own.

Reiterates that AST is 'ramping up to production of 12 satellites a month,' and speculates that once constellation buildout no longer requires that production rate, the company will need a new use for that capacity — implicitly, data centers.

Speculates that a hypothetical future announcement of Apple working closely with AST, or investing (he floats a hypothetical figure of 'a billion dollars') alongside Google's existing investment, would be 'game-changing' for the stock, though he doesn't know if or when this might happen — possibly weeks or months out.

Opens by framing the day's volatility as an expected pullback that had been consensus among institutions for February, noting that the sectors he invests in (space, nuclear, batteries) are up substantially this year and last year, so pullbacks are natural.

Says concern about a potential conflict in Iran contributed to weak headlines earlier in the day, but argues the bigger driver of the pullback was worry sparked by Anthropic's new software tools and fears that AI could disrupt the software industry, noting the software ETF was nearing its April 2025 tariff-scare lows.

Responds directly to a listener (Tim Stobirski) who suggested AT&T choosing Amazon Leo for fixed satellite internet was driving ASTS down; explains AT&T's Amazon Leo partnership is for fixed wireless to connect enterprise customers far from fiber/wireless coverage — a different market from AST SpaceMobile's direct-to-cell service — and calls Amazon Leo complementary to, not competitive with, AST SpaceMobile (analogous to Starlink fixed-wireless-to-home vs. Starlink direct-to-cell).

Argues that at most this news might explain selling only among investors who don't understand the company well, and reiterates that the whole space/growth sector was down similarly that day, so sector beta — not this specific news — explains ASTS's move.

Describes typical pod drawdown limits as an example: an initial drawdown limit around 5% triggers a partial capital cut, 7% triggers further cuts, and around 10% a pod is effectively 'tapped out' — illustrating why funds under these constraints face a 'damned if you do, damned if you don't' choice between buying dislocations or de-risking to survive.

Gives a worked example: a $500 million book down 5% (-$25M) that falls another 2% (down $37.5M total) could get its capital cut in half to $250M, making that drawdown very hard to recover from — explaining why only a small fraction of pod teams at firms like Millennium or Citadel have longevity.

Contrasts this with individual retail investors who aren't running margin or reporting to LPs, arguing retail can go on the 'offense' during forced institutional selling — including tactics like selling stock to buy calls to add risk, or selling low-conviction names to buy more of high-conviction ones.

Argues that positions bought on a hot tip or in a hurry, without real understanding, are the first ones investors panic-sell during volatility ('negative gamma' — buying high on hype, selling low on fear), whereas genuine conviction in a name makes investors more likely to hold or add during a 10-20% drawdown.

Describes using down days to 'upgrade' a portfolio: if a low-conviction name is down 25% and a high-conviction name is down 20%, sell the low-conviction name and add to the high-conviction one.

Says he holds Vodafone 2027 LEAPS ($15 and $17 strike calls) that are up roughly 3-3.5x, and is tempted to monetize some to redeploy elsewhere but is holding because he retains conviction in the trade.

States that if ASTS were down 30-40% while the rest of the sector was down only ~10%, that would signal a real company-specific problem, but since ASTS was down about 13% in line with the sector's 11-18% range that day, it's simply sector beta, not a company issue.

Frames the pullback as a good entry point for investors who have been on the sidelines, while cautioning that a short (1-2 year) time horizon risks 'buying the top,' whereas a 5-year view (analogous to buying real estate in New York or California through market cycles) should work out for names with strong long-term fundamentals.

Says he doesn't hold Rocket Lab currently (though he has in the past and finds it tempting) because he views space names as highly correlated with each other, and his highest conviction is concentrated in AST SpaceMobile rather than spreading exposure across similar names.

Mentions he owns Pagaya (consumer credit exposure) via warrants; the stock has taken a hit amid consumer-credit-market concerns, but he considers himself 'set and forget' on the warrants and is still up overall, citing continued company execution.

Says he watches the AST SpaceMobile Reddit community's sentiment as an informal bottom indicator — when sentiment turns very negative and long-standing bears get upvoted, it has tended to mark a tradable bottom; he says someone told him Reddit was 'flashing all the indicators' that day, though he hadn't checked it himself.

Describes a separate top-indicator he's noticed: when Twitter chatter starts hyping 'the next AST' or 'the next T1 Energy,' that kind of euphoria for copycat ideas can signal the market is overextended and due for a pullback.

Says he thinks $100 is roughly the current support level for ASTS, with the stock trading just under that; recalls that $20 was viewed as the prior support level in the first part of 2025, where the stock consolidated for a long time.

Responding to a listener asking about a possible drop to $50, says he doesn't think ASTS goes that low, citing upcoming catalysts including commercial service launch, military awards, and the broader space-sector interest tied to the SpaceX IPO.

Says he does not believe the broader market is entering a bearish trend, viewing the current pullback as healthy consolidation rather than a trend change, while acknowledging elevated uncertainty specifically around software and consumer-credit names.

Discusses market concern that an incoming new Fed chair nominee, who has previously made hawkish comments, could be bad for markets, but argues Trump likely selected someone who will be dovish/accommodative on rates given the administration's political incentives, drawing an analogy to Marco Rubio's shift from anti-Trump to fully aligned with the administration.

Says alternative inflation measures suggest inflation is still trending down, and his main lingering macro concern is speculative excess in commodities like silver and gold rather than in equities.

Argues the cost per kilogram to orbit needs to fall significantly before space-based data centers can be cost-competitive with terrestrial ones, and that reality is 'far' from that point currently, though he believes space data centers will eventually happen.

Compares current AI infrastructure buildout concerns to the dot-com bubble's overbuilding of fiber/optical networks, but argues today's AI use cases are grounded in real practical demand (unlike some dot-com-era business ideas), so while some overbuild and pullback is likely, he thinks 'it's different this time' — with the caveat that this is a commonly famous-last-words line.

Says there is a backup at Cape Canaveral due to Artemis activity, a Crew Dragon Falcon 9 launch, ongoing construction, and limited launch-pad/processing capacity, compounded by a recent SpaceX Falcon 9 anomaly that requires investigation; says AST will not ship its next satellite batch until the launch site is ready to receive and process it, to avoid straining the relationship with launch providers.

States his 'base case' expectation is that the next near-term launch will be Blue Origin New Glenn 3 carrying FM-2, no earlier than the end of the current month, and that 1-2 additional launches could follow before March 30-31, for a total of about 4 launches in that window — while acknowledging it could slip to 3 launches with 2 more shortly after.

Anpanman states that looking at yesterday's stock price reactions, he thinks the market 'just totally doesn't get it,' and that unlike close followers of the sector, he views the SpaceX-xAI merger announcement as incredibly bullish, with the only real negative risk being that Elon Musk's targeted June IPO for SpaceX could slip somewhat.

Anpanman explains merger mechanics: a public-to-public merger via tender process could close in as little as ~45 days at the short end, but typically takes 4 to 8 months; however, because the SpaceX-xAI deal is a private transaction where the buyer and seller are effectively the same person/party (Elon Musk and shareholders who know each other), and the companies don't compete or overlap (so no HSR antitrust review is needed), he expects the deal to close in a handful of weeks.

Anpanman says the bankers selected for the SpaceX IPO have likely already started drafting an S-1, which will need extra work to incorporate xAI's business overview, risks, and pro forma financials, but that this drafting can occur in parallel with the merger closing rather than delaying the process.

Anpanman concludes that if SpaceX and its bankers 'work their asses off' and the SEC is amenable and cooperative, a June or possibly July IPO is still achievable, and that yesterday's space-sector sell-off was driven by a mistaken assumption that the IPO would be delayed by 1-5 months.

Anpanman argues the SpaceX-xAI combination 'lights a fire under everyone's ass' among AI players who weren't previously prioritizing space, including OpenAI, Google, and Anthropic as the key AI players, plus Microsoft, Amazon, and Apple (whom he describes as 'pretty far behind'), and international players like Samsung.

Anpanman's core thesis: projecting 5-10 years out, the ability to build data centers in space becomes a major competitive advantage for a vertically integrated Elon Musk, forcing every compute-dependent AI company to figure out who to partner with in space; AST SpaceMobile, though focused on direct-to-device and military applications, already has building blocks that could support space data centers, making it a natural partner for these companies (whether through technology partnership, strategic investment, or joint ventures).

Anpanman says he thinks it is not a high probability that a big tech company acquires AST SpaceMobile outright, believing the company has more value as an independent player providing wholesale data and other services; if an acquisition did happen, he says it would need to be by an entity that preserves AST's neutrality among carriers, citing Google as one example of a company that could make sense.

Anpanman extends the argument to Tesla, saying any company competing with any part of Elon Musk's vertically integrated empire will need to find a space partner with relevant expertise and capability.

Anpanman names AST SpaceMobile, Rocket Lab, Voyager, Redwire, Intuitive Machines, and Karman (transcribed as 'Carmen') as companies that become strategically important because of their expertise and know-how delivering systems in space.

Anpanman highlights Rocket Lab specifically: it currently does small launch, is moving into medium launch, and builds space systems including solar-hardened gallium arsenide solar arrays — technology he expects to be in high demand.

Anpanman describes the dynamic among space companies as 'coopetition' — cooperating while also competing — noting SpaceX's Falcon 9 continues to launch competitors' payloads, and he doesn't expect that to change.

Anpanman says he briefly caught up with Kook the previous night, and relays that this merger puts tremendous pressure on SpaceX to make money because xAI does not make money and is described as 'a big furnace' that needs continuous funding to improve.

Anpanman argues SpaceX will need to be more aggressive bringing on external commercial launch customers (rather than only launching its own satellites) because xAI will require ongoing money and investment, and the push toward data centers in space will also require significant capital; he notes Starlink itself remains a strong cash cow generating substantial revenue and free cash flow.

Anpanman argues the push into space data centers will itself create a new source of launch demand, which is a positive for all launch providers even though a large amount of new launch capacity is already coming online in 2027.

Anpanman argues that while terrestrial data-center hardware suppliers like SanDisk, Micron, and Western Digital face some limits to demand on Earth, building data centers in space creates what he calls a functionally 'unlimited' total addressable market for memory chips, processors, and hard drives — which would still be manufactured on Earth but shipped to space in large volumes — benefiting hardware makers and solar companies broadly.

Anpanman predicts that sell-side analysts will eventually catch on to this narrative, perhaps within a few weeks, and recognize that there are only a small number of companies capable of executing this space data-center build-out, making them the ones to invest in.

Kook recalls living through the 2008 Great Financial Crisis while at a hedge fund and says that in hindsight, Netflix's chart shows no visible trace of the crisis despite a 33% peak-to-trough drawdown at the time; he draws the same comparison to Microsoft's April 2025 drawdown, now barely visible as a 'buy the dip' moment.

Kook states ASTS was already down $25 from its peak as of Friday morning, calling the stock's volatility 'astounding,' and says a little further 'blow-off' is his base case for February, though it may have already happened.

Kook argues that although the stock currently has no cash flow, the market is pricing in a future inflection to significant cash flow, and that understanding AST's underlying technology (not just financial multiples) is essential to understanding the investment opportunity, since the platform has multiplying use cases beyond simple communications.

Kook argues that senior defense-prime veterans like Williams have secure pensions, prestige, and comfortable careers, so leaving after 28 years signals a genuinely compelling opportunity; he notes Williams is 'almost assuredly' not joining for cash compensation, since the bulk of wealth at AST historically comes from equity grants, meaning new hires are effectively making a big bet on the stock.

Kook cites a Tough4R analysis noting the hiring of radar experts 'Walcott' and Williams from Raytheon as signaling AST is bolstering its defense capabilities, with phased-array expertise potentially adapting AST's LEO satellites for radar applications like missile tracking and secure comms.

Kook says he tries to track patterns of talent flow into AST as a signal — pointing to his years-old #MeetTheTeam Twitter series profiling AST employees — arguing that when experienced people 'YOLO' their careers into a company rather than just buying the stock, that's a stronger signal than retail buying alone.

Kook lays out three potential layers where AST's technology could fit into missile-defense architecture: the tracking layer (sensing/locating missiles), the transport layer (moving large volumes of sensor data across space), and the custody layer (maintaining track of a detected threat/launcher).

Kook explains that innovations in 5G technology can act like radar: as an object like a missile penetrates airspace, it disturbs an RF/5G signal field (he likens it to seeing 'the ones and zeros bend' in The Matrix), which AST's technology could exploit for tracking even though radar has historically been the domain of dedicated radar companies.

Even if AST doesn't end up providing the radar/tracking function itself, Kook argues AST is well positioned for the transport layer — enabling near-instantaneous global dissemination of missile-tracking data and bypassing terrestrial delays, enhancing real-time missile surveillance for the US government.

Kook says it's unclear which of the three layers (tracking, transport, custody) AST will ultimately win, but doesn't think losing one layer is 'game over,' since the product roadmap and commercial pipeline will keep evolving.

Kook describes a finding by an FCC-docket researcher he calls 'Katsy'/'KATSE': the FCC's filing system shows row numbers for filings with no accessible links or content ('ghost filings'), and six such ghost filings were found in a relevant docket, suggesting redacted/undisclosed filings exist that require special privileges to view.

Kook cites a tweet from 'Only 6 Inches' relaying comments from an EchoStar expert who reportedly says AST is 'number one,' that Starlink will eventually compete directly against MNOs (creating channel conflict), and that AST's satellite size is technologically impressive.

Kook draws an analogy to Tesla, recalling he once thought (but didn't trade on) the idea that revenue/cash flow could be a 'curse' once the market realized Tesla was 'just a car company' during the Model 3 ramp — but Tesla ultimately became a strong investment once revenue materialized, which he suggests is instructive for ASTS skeptics waiting to cover their shorts on positive EBIT.

Kook cites Sequoia Capital partner Shaun Maguire (who covers SpaceX for the firm) calling Starlink's direct-to-cell opportunity 'one of the biggest market opportunities ever,' arguing that Sequoia's institutional track record of spotting large markets lends credibility to the claim.

Kook cites broker figures he received showing SpaceX total revenue at $16 billion, of which $10 billion is Starlink revenue and growing quickly; he notes this doesn't fully explain SpaceX's reported $1.5 trillion valuation, which he attributes partly to Elon Musk's newly floated plan for a constellation of up to a million satellites to power AI data centers in space.

Kook argues that if Starlink (a fixed-broadband-like product) can generate $10 billion in revenue, AST's mobile-focused direct-to-cell opportunity should be larger, analogizing current Starlink to 'Facebook on desktop' and AST SpaceMobile to 'Facebook Mobile,' where mobile ultimately drove Facebook's growth.

Kook cites Zero Hedge noting the space sector was the dominant return driver in 2025 and that the same trend is repeating so far in 2026; he credits the Trump administration's redirection toward the Department of War/'space superiority' messaging and Goldman Sachs launching a 'GS Moon Index' as evidence institutional attention to the space theme is accelerating, while cautioning that heavy bank attention to a theme can sometimes mark a late stage (as with prior 'BRIC Index'-style trends).

Kook cites a share from 'Elena Niera' (MIT) that Japan is calling for a national LEO infrastructure development project to reduce dependence on overseas constellations, similar to Europe's IRIS² initiative; Kook questions whether Japan can build its own constellation alone or whether it would make more economic sense to adopt a SatCo-like joint structure given its small population and the natural monopoly economics of satellite constellations.

Kook predicts Europe's SatCo (the AST/Vodafone European JV) will likely be up and operating well before Europe's IRIS² sovereign constellation, if IRIS² is ever operational at all.

Kook mentions a German ITU filing, flagged by researcher 'Katsy,' for an 'Arctic shell' related to SATCOM, noting Arctic shells are important for military use and suggesting this signals the intended (government/defense) user base for such a system.

Kook argues AST is likely to fare better than Starlink in India because AST has built goodwill by partnering with and elevating ISRO's global reputation as a launch partner, and because Indian Prime Minister Modi has publicly tweeted about the company, whereas Starlink has not invested in local partnerships or content in India.

Kook speculates that large existing Indian telecom incumbents (e.g., Reliance) may lobby against Starlink because it would disintermediate their existing business, making it harder for Starlink to get regulatory approval, whereas he expects AST to have a smoother experience given its collaborative approach.

Kook says a series of FCC filings show AST's partners (e.g., AT&T lawyers, not CEO-level executives) are actively finalizing documents, which he interprets as a sign that a full US market grant from the FCC could come 'any day' — though he cautions that in FCC timelines, 'any day' could still mean February or March.

Kook credits Jennifer Manor, described as AST's 'queen of spectrum,' for the company's strategic spectrum posturing, arguing AST's satellites are ultimately just the 'mode' for spectrum aggregation — the true scarce asset is the spectrum leases themselves, analogizing to Dish/Charlie Ergen's spectrum being valuable mainly because Starlink, not Dish (Charlie), could monetize it.

Kook references last week's discussion of the 'MilNet' dedicated government system 'magically' disappearing, tying it to a broader trend of government leveraging shared commercial systems like AST SpaceMobile rather than building fully dedicated ones.

Kook cites Deutsche Bank (highlighted via 'SPAC Bobby') estimating a realistic TAM of 1.75 billion users globally for AST SpaceMobile, with Deutsche Bank suggesting it might make sense for AST to pivot away from the primary broadband opportunity or price it higher given very strong demand and limited capacity to serve everything.

By contrast, Kook notes William Blair's report forecasts only $685 million of AST revenue in 2030, calling it a lowball estimate with 'room to upgrade' relative to Deutsche Bank's more bullish TAM view.

Kook recounts that rehashed news about Starlink and Apple (via a tweet from Mario Nawfal) plus unusual Friday trading action (stock ripping in the first 30 minutes, 'bid without offer') made it feel like something material was about to be announced, but the move faded and the stock gave back gains later that day.

Kook closes with a reference to an article on the NRO's declassified Jumpseat spy satellite program, noting these Cold War-era programs (referenced in the book 'Keyhole') are historically underappreciated but were directly important to ending the Cold War, drawing a parallel to today's rapidly evolving electronic-warfare and space-based national security landscape in which he believes AST is well positioned to compete against the largest US defense primes.

Anpanman frames the filing as a watershed moment because the most visible and successful space company has now formally, not just rhetorically, entered the AI-data-centers-in-space market, which had previously been championed mainly by early-stage startups like StarCloud.

On the eve of the BlueWalker 3 launch, Musk announced Starlink direct-to-cell and effectively claimed SpaceX had already created the technology, when in Anpanman's view it had not; Starlink's initial offering was an imperfect, minimally-viable product but still drew major investor interest into the sector and silenced some naysayers.

StarCloud's CEO had been publicly championing data centers in space and, in Anpanman's telling, faced skepticism ('folks kind of laughing at him'); Musk's entry now validates that thesis and should make it easier for StarCloud and similar startups to raise capital. Anpanman is separately skeptical of StarCloud's specific satellite/solar-array architecture, calling it 'a big target that would get hit by debris.'

Anpanman cites SpaceX's broader vertical integration — potential mergers/links with Tesla and xAI spanning launch, communications satellites, data centers, solar production, robotics, and AI applications (X, xAI) — as context for why Musk is pushing into space data centers now.

Anpanman argues grid infrastructure cannot support new large power sources at a distance, so power generation (solar, natural gas, or nuclear) increasingly has to be built directly next to data centers ('behind the meter') rather than delivered over the existing grid.

Musk's broader track record — reusable rockets (once dismissed as impossible), replicating and improving on OneWeb's LEO fixed-wireless concept into Starlink, and turning Tesla/EVs into a mainstream product after skepticism — is cited as evidence he tends to correctly identify large future markets, even if AST SpaceMobile ultimately built superior direct-to-device technology.

Anpanman's own timeline expectation: even if SpaceX says space AI data centers will happen in a given number of years (e.g. 3), he expects it will actually take roughly twice as long (e.g. 5-6 years) based on Musk's historical pattern of missing deadlines while still eventually delivering.

Citing figures he pulled from ChatGPT and flagging them as uncertain, Anpanman estimates the Earth-observation market (Planet Labs, BlackSky, SatLogic, etc.) at about $5 billion currently, growing to roughly $8 billion by 2033 — sizable but 'not that big.'

He estimates the satellite communications market (AST SpaceMobile's category) at about $108 billion in 2024, expected to grow significantly, with direct-to-device specifically nascent but forecast at roughly a 100% CAGR over the next 5-10 years.

He cites GPS/position-navigation-timing as the largest space application market at about $260 billion in 2023, and government space spending (military and other applications) at about $132 billion.

For the new AI-data-centers-in-space vertical, Anpanman cites differing forecasts of roughly $26 billion to $40 billion in size by 2035 — smaller than communications but still a meaningful new addressable market opening up for space companies.

Anpanman says (with self-flagged uncertainty about the exact figures) that roughly 40% of a terrestrial data center's electricity goes to cooling and about 60% to compute/data transmission; moving the cooling burden to space via radiative heat dissipation would free up much more power for actual compute.

On Earth, data centers force trade-offs between land use, freshwater for cooling, and other human needs (food/water); Anpanman argues there is a practical cap on how many terrestrial data centers can be built, and that alternatives like cold-climate or underwater data centers risk melting polar regions or, at the extreme, 'boiling the oceans.'

Anpanman argues that putting compute on the moon or in sun-synchronous/solar orbit avoids these Earth-bound resource trade-offs entirely.

He views this as a better solution than atmospheric deorbiting, since burning up large numbers of satellites' metals and materials in Earth's atmosphere is not good for humans, and he worries the industry will soon see 'hundreds and thousands' of satellites deorbiting given Starlink's plans for tens of thousands of satellites with roughly 2-3 year useful lives in very low Earth orbit.

Anpanman states his own preference is for a smaller number (a few hundred) of satellites in higher orbit with longer useful lives of roughly 7-10, potentially up to 12, years, which he views as a better environmental and performance approach — an implicit reference to AST SpaceMobile's constellation design versus Starlink's.

Anpanman expects AST SpaceMobile could generate 'probably a few hundred million dollars' of revenue in the coming year (2026) from military applications alone, once the constellation is deployed.

The satellites' ASICs already run an AI algorithm to perform efficient beamforming for communications; Anpanman argues it would not be a large technical leap to swap those chips for TPUs or GPUs to perform AI compute rather than just communications beamforming, though he notes this isn't yet optimized for that purpose.

Anpanman cites AST SpaceMobile's roughly 3,800 patents and patent-pending claims, existing tooling, know-how, and supply chain as reasons the company could logically pivot excess production capacity toward building space data centers once the core communications constellation is built out.

Anpanman says he has personally told AST SpaceMobile that it should form a dedicated 'skunkworks' group focused on AI data centers if it hasn't already, and that based on conversations he had with the company roughly two years ago, AST was already working 4-5 satellite generations ahead of what's publicly discussed (Block 2/Block 3), suggesting the company may already be pursuing this internally.

Anpanman argues Google, Amazon, Microsoft, OpenAI, and Meta will all need space-industry partners to compete in AI data centers, since none of them currently operate meaningfully in space themselves aside from prior failed efforts like Google/Meta's high-altitude balloon internet projects.

He argues this will not be a winner-take-all market dominated solely by SpaceX, since other large tech players may not fully trust or want to depend on a vertically integrated Musk-controlled stack, creating an opening for AST SpaceMobile as a partner building 5-6 ton satellites with large deployable solar arrays.

He names K2 Space as another company building large satellites for big applications, but notes he doesn't believe they have put a satellite in orbit yet; he also suggests Rocket Lab could plausibly move into the space-data-center market.

Anpanman argues large legacy prime contractors are too slow-moving, bureaucratic, and cost-plus to build this kind of hardware quickly, citing an unnamed prime's satellite program (built for Viasat, per his recollection) that was delivered years late and over budget, as reasons this opportunity favors newer, faster-iterating companies like AST SpaceMobile.

Beyond big tech, Anpanman expects telecom carriers (AT&T, Verizon, Vodafone) that already run terrestrial data center/interconnectivity/hosting businesses to seek space partnerships as well, potentially through existing relationships like AST SpaceMobile.

Anpanman draws an analogy to Micron shifting DRAM/NAND production away from consumer PCs toward data centers as demand outstripped commodity supply, predicting the same dynamic in solar: AI data center demand (terrestrial and orbital) will absorb the bulk of solar production, raising prices and potentially reducing solar panel availability for residential use.

Anpanman holds a small speculative position in ASTI, a microcap making flexible thin-film solar modules for space applications; the company has spent heavily on R&D without yet commercializing the technology, though it recently raised capital and cited interested customers.

Anpanman estimates PowerBank's market cap at roughly $45 million per Bloomberg, though he believes the true figure is closer to $70-80 million once dilutive securities are accounted for; the company has June fiscal year-end financials of $41 million revenue and about 25% gross margin in FY2025, roughly breakeven EBITDA, with Street estimates of $63 million revenue in FY2026 and $87 million in FY2027, gross margins reaching the mid-50s by FY2028, and EBITDA profitability by around June 2027.

Recent SpaceX financial disclosures reportedly show roughly $15-16 billion in revenue and about $8 billion in EBITDA, with Starlink contributing 60-70% (and likely more on a cash-flow basis) of that financial performance.

Anpanman argues a core driver behind SpaceX's push into space data centers is the need to generate enough cargo/payload demand to justify Starship's capacity, similar to how a lack of sufficient launch customers in the early 2010s pushed Musk toward building Starlink as a demand source for Falcon 9.

Anpanman expects the SpaceX IPO in 2026 to be a major educational event for institutional investors, potentially valuing SpaceX around $1.5 trillion standalone, or in the $2-3 trillion range if merged with xAI and/or Tesla, and predicts this will re-rate valuations across the space sector, including AST SpaceMobile and Rocket Lab.

He references Stanford's Professor Kevin Mack, who has discussed the possibility of AST SpaceMobile reaching 'S-rank cult status' among investors, which Anpanman says he thinks is possible as growth narratives that consensus doesn't yet see get priced in.

Anpanman closes bullish on the broader 2026 outlook for the space sector, citing Trump-administration emphasis on American space superiority, the SpaceX IPO, and growing institutional awareness of both direct-to-device and now AI-data-center applications as tailwinds, and says he remains especially optimistic on 'space and solar' as investment themes.

Anpanman notes that the day's move represented roughly '6 market caps worth of AST back in 2024,' illustrating how much larger and less volatile (in percentage terms) the company has become.

Anpanman and Kook discussed after the close that a lot of company-specific risk has now been de-risked — e.g., losing one or two satellites today would not be a company-ending event, whereas losing BlueWalker 3 during the 2022-2023 period of financial-market uncertainty could have forced the company to raise capital at very bad terms.

Anpanman contrasts this rally with the 2022-2024 pattern where the stock would spike on a catalyst (e.g., BlueWalker 3 reaching orbit) and then give back the gains because the company was still too early-stage; he argues the stock is now behaving like a maturing company where positive catalysts sustain and 'step function' higher instead of round-tripping.

The public comment period on AST's US market/SCS application closed around October 6, 2025, with a short reply period running to roughly the second week of October; Anpanman notes a typical post-comment-period decision window is 2-3 months, putting expected FCC action around late January or the first half of February 2026.

Anpanman highlights that attorneys/representatives, not principals like AT&T's John Stankey or Verizon's CEO, attended the January 23 meeting — in his view a positive sign, since senior-executive attendance late in a regulatory process usually signals something is going wrong.

Anpanman notes FCC Chairman Brendan Carr has publicly praised both Starlink and AST SpaceMobile and pushed for faster approvals and more freed-up spectrum for direct-to-device, which he reads as further evidence approval is coming soon; he also notes Starlink's own direct-to-device constellation was approved roughly a week or two before this recording.

If granted, full FCC approval would let AST operate its full 248-satellite constellation without relying on Special Temporary Authority waivers, and would allow the company to turn on commercial service (subject to not causing interference) rather than just launch satellites.

Anpanman argues US approval will act as a global catalyst: regulators in Europe, Asia, and Africa look to the US framework as a template, so US approval should open the door to faster approvals internationally.

Anpanman says he can't predict the stock's immediate reaction to FCC approval — it could be up 20-30%, flat, or even sell off short-term — but views it as a huge positive over the medium-to-long term because it validates the company for institutions still waiting on the sidelines.

Anpanman notes Fidelity already holds a small position and cites the fact that funds like Fidelity can build positions up to roughly 15% of a company's outstanding shares as an example of the scale of buying that could follow FCC approval, similar to the sustained buying seen after the 2024 Verizon deal.

SpaceMob due-diligence trackers (citing 'Katzi,' who did similar tracking during BlueWalker 3) monitor satellite drag and orbit data to determine when a satellite has successfully unfolded/detumbled; for Block 2, the design uses a single large arm that unfolds in one direction (versus the two-arm, multi-direction unfold used on Block 1), which Anpanman says should be simpler and lower-risk.

Bluebird 6 (BB6)'s antenna unfolding is expected 'any moment'; there is speculation within SpaceMob that BB6 also has a tail-mounted solar array for extra power that may have already deployed, though the company has not confirmed this and Anpanman expects limited photo/video release given the proprietary unfolding mechanism.

Two additional batches of three Bluebirds each ('Batch 1' and 'Batch 2') are expected to ship to Florida for Falcon 9 launches; Anpanman attributes the shipment taking longer than expected to a backlog at Cape Canaveral, including a crewed Falcon 9 mission to the ISS and Starship launch preparations competing for payload-processing facilities.

Anpanman jokes about the likelihood of politicians such as Nancy Pelosi and Tommy Tuberville buying AST or other space names given momentum around Golden Dome and NDAA-related legislation, noting that politician trades are disclosed only on a delayed basis (in one case, disclosure came 100 days late with only a small fine).

Anpanman observes that AST and Rocket Lab tend to trade in correlation as the two main 'newer space' proxies — Rocket Lab has moved from the 50s to around 89 (having touched 100) since the December executive order on space superiority.

Anpanman describes a Twitter hedge-fund account (referenced as something like 'Century Old Ag Credit') that floated shorting AST, then reversed and said he would go long into the SpaceX IPO despite not believing in the company's fundamentals, which Anpanman cites as a sign smart money doesn't want to fight the sector's tailwinds.

Anpanman recalls historical short sellers (a Kerrisdale/'Terrastale'-type report, and individuals he names as Philip Lyle, a SpaceX employee, and a critic he refers to as 'Tim Ferriss') as having largely lost or made only modest money shorting AST, with one firm's assets under management having dwindled.

Anpanman notes a Twitter account ('Tuck Capital') that appears to have shorted AST around $50 and again around $70 and is now down significantly, reinforcing his view that it's dangerous to short a name benefiting from powerful secular/sector tailwinds heading into the SpaceX IPO.

Anpanman relays hedge-fund commentator Kevin Mack's framing that AST could reach 'S-rank' cult-stock status (an anime power-ranking analogy: D through A rank, with only a handful of S-rank), comparable to Tesla or Palantir, where valuation reflects long-term platform potential rather than near-term financials alone.

Anpanman compares AST to Nvidia (originally a niche gaming-GPU company that became central to the AI revolution) and to Tesla (more than an EV maker — robotaxis, and Musk's stated plan to halt Model S/X production by year-end to reallocate that line to building robots), arguing AST is similarly underappreciated beyond its 'connect a phone to satellite' use case.

Anpanman describes each BlueBird satellite as capable of generating about 120 kilowatts of power, with phased arrays/microns on the earth-facing side and solar panels on the outer side, built-in heat dissipation (a major constraint for AI data centers), and FPGAs currently onboard with ASICs being integrated starting in Q1, positioning the constellation as a potential host for future Nvidia GPUs or other AI/TPU-style chips.

Anpanman argues that once AST's constellation build-out is complete, its manufacturing capacity, trained workforce, automation, and patents for building 5-6 ton satellites could be repurposed for third-party satellite manufacturing deals (e.g., for Google, which currently partners on small CubeSats via Planet but would need a larger dedicated satellite builder), though he says it's unclear whether such deals would be a one-time build or generate ongoing operator/service revenue.

Anpanman pushes back on bears who value AST off last quarter's reported $14 million of revenue, arguing serious investors price growth/platform companies (comparing AST to biotech, SMRs, or quantum computing names) off future TAM and cash flow potential rather than trailing results, citing a Scotiabank analyst projection of roughly $11 billion in free cash flow by around 2030-2031 — a figure someone noted would put AST in the top 10 of all public companies by free cash flow.

Anpanman says Elon Musk reportedly wants to pull the SpaceX IPO forward to around June 2026 (to align with his birthday and unspecified planetary timing), which would require a fast SEC review of the S-1 given Musk's closeness to the administration; if not June, Anpanman expects July, and says the company could still pull off a successful IPO in August, though August/September offerings are typically avoided due to lower investor availability.

Anpanman argues TMT/growth investors who want SpaceX/Starlink exposure but can't get it will increasingly view AST — now at roughly $45 billion market cap — as the pure-play way to gain exposure to the space theme, creating 'schmuck insurance'-style buying pressure (funds not wanting to be seen missing the name), similar to quarter-end momentum buying/selling in other big winners and losers.

Anpanman cites an unnamed institutional investor on Twitter who bought AST via VWAP around $104-105 (an all-time high at the time) and explained the purchase as 'it's interesting now, I've got to own it' — illustrating the shift toward institutional must-own buying he expects to continue.

Kook warns that stop losses have cost some investors money during these short-term price movements, reiterating that understanding what you own is the best defense against panic selling.

Kook believes FM1 and FM2 are primarily testing the satellite 'bus' and carry government payloads rather than being part of the main commercial communication constellation, which instead begins with Batch 1 and shortly after Batch 2.

Kook argues the risk profile of a launch failure has changed dramatically over the company's history: a failed BlueWalker 3 launch would have been catastrophic (company likely couldn't have raised money and could have gone bankrupt); a failed Block 1 launch would have put the company at extreme risk; but today, any anomaly with a single satellite is just a 'minor nuisance' given the company's financial and operational wherewithal, and he personally would not sell his position over such an event.

Beyond the chairman's words, the FCC has been quickly turning comments on ASTS's license-modification application this week, which Kook takes as an action-based signal that full constellation market-access approval is coming soon, and that this approval is likely to be timed around the Batch 1 shipment date, which he says 'could be any day now,' though he isn't sure there's a grand plan behind the timing.

Kook believes the market has already priced in a high probability of FCC approval, so the approval itself may not be major news to him personally, though it remains a big fundamental accomplishment; he contrasts this with Golden Dome, which he sees as not yet reflected in the stock price and as having more potential to be a step-change in revenue expectations, since FCC approval mainly increases certainty of achieving already-expected revenue rather than raising the revenue expectation itself.

Kook expects other countries, including Nigeria, Australia, the EU, and the UK, to launch their own D2D regulatory consultations/frameworks over the next year, following the FCC's lead, making US FCC approval effectively a global green light for D2D adoption.

Kook argues that as the 'it will never get approved' bear thesis has been discredited, short sellers have shifted their argument to 'it will work and get approved, but the market isn't big,' which he says was the expected next phase of bear dialogue; he notes that historically, hedge fund short sellers who lose conviction often flip to going long rather than merely covering, though he acknowledges he personally has never done so himself.

Peter Adderton, founder of Boost Mobile and founder of Mobile X, has been publicly critical of the 'space mob,' arguing ASTS's white-label B2B strategy is fundamentally flawed compared to Starlink's consumer-brand approach; when asked by 'King Tut' why he spends time trolling retail investors, Adderton reportedly said he has a great team so has plenty of spare time.

Kook argues Adderton's comparison misses that Starlink built its consumer brand with fixed broadband, not with direct-to-cell (DTC); standard direct-to-consumer (D2C) companies are often crippled by customer acquisition costs, which Kook estimates can eat 60-70% of gross margin, whereas Starlink largely avoided this because Elon Musk functioned as a uniquely effective one-man marketing engine requiring minimal paid advertising.

Kook argues true D2C for satellite-to-phone service isn't practically possible because a phone must be tied to one core network, so an operator would have to replace the MNO entirely — commercially and technically impractical given the enormous capital intensity and customer acquisition costs required (citing the MNOs' heavy advertising and phone-subsidy spending as evidence of how expensive customer acquisition is).

Kook likens ASTS's exclusive MNO partnerships (e.g., AT&T) to owning the App Store: to an AT&T subscriber, ASTS will be the only option for this type of satellite service, giving ASTS an effective distribution monopoly across the largest MNOs globally, which he calls the actual advantage that generates the money, superior to Adderton's brand argument.

Kook says he personally hopes AST SpaceMobile still develops its own consumer-facing brand identity (referencing a concept like 'Red A' branding with AT&T) so the service isn't fully invisible to end users, similar to how T-Mobile customers know they're using Starlink; he says this optionality matters for the future even though it isn't critical to the business model.

When TerraWave was announced this week, the ASTS stock initially gapped down as some investors feared Blue Origin was building a competitor; Kook argues this is incorrect and that TerraWave is likely complementary, not competitive, to ASTS, and could actually increase Blue Origin's New Glenn launch demand (alongside Kuiper, ASTS, and Golden Dome business), which Blue Origin itself has specifically highlighted as part of its book of business.

Kook connects TerraWave's announcement to the recent cancellation of MilNet, a government-operated, SpaceX-built constellation intended to provide data transport services; he says the funding instead moved to the PWSA (Proliferated Warfighter Space Architecture), the broader umbrella program ASTS operates under, and speculates this reflects diversification away from SpaceX toward AST SpaceMobile, especially combined with Jeff Bezos and Abel Avellan's public congratulatory exchange.

Kook says community member 'Katzi' found that TerraWave's frequencies match ASTS's frequencies, suggesting technical compatibility between the two systems, and that ASTS already has relevant pieces in place (optical inter-satellite laser links, DC service links, PLM/eNodeB on satellite, and large Q/V-band feeders) that could support a military/government backhaul partnership with Blue Origin, though he notes speculation of a Blue Origin co-investment in ASTS has not materialized.

Kook acknowledges the Space Mob community has generally been right about these kinds of speculative connections over the past five years, with one likely exception: speculation that ASTS was connected to the classified NROL-69 program, which he now believes was probably wrong.

Citing community member 'Theodorus the Atheist,' Kook speculates that once high-throughput links like TerraWave exist, the natural next step could be placing data centers in space themselves, calling this a 'gradual then sudden' trend, though he cautions the economics don't yet obviously work.

Kook revisits recent controversy over his comments on a US-Greenland deal, saying Trump secured real estate in Greenland (important for polar orbits) that will be tied to Golden Dome interceptor and ground-system infrastructure, framing it as a further sign Golden Dome is taking concrete shape.

Kook notes the cancellation of RGPS, a Space Force GPS-resilience program, and speculates this reflects the Space Force choosing to harmonize GPS-resilience needs with commercial systems like SpaceX and AST SpaceMobile instead of a dedicated program, which he sees as expanding ASTS's total addressable market by letting it monetize otherwise-idle capacity (e.g., over regions where GPS could be denied).

Kook references a post by community member 'Tough4R' (titled 'Remember Monday, Golden Dome...') breaking down possible Golden Dome timelines, and mentions the MDA 'Noble' Award accelerated procurement process (discussed the prior week) that can compress typical decade-long procurement timelines to roughly two to three years.

Deutsche Bank raised its ASTS price target from $81 to $137 and, in the same report, modeled government/other revenue reaching approximately $200 million in 2027 (per an ASTS-investor-created infographic summarizing the report); Kook calls the $200M figure a 'finger in the air' estimate but says it could prove too low.

Deutsche Bank's report also projects 47 BlueBirds in orbit by year end and includes a longer-term out-year price target of $672; Kook notes Deutsche Bank's price-target history includes prior targets of $22 and $121 that were both later hit.

Kook disagrees with commentary suggesting five satellite launches are likely by Q1 (March 31); he personally thinks it would be a surprise to see five launches by then, expecting a New Glenn launch around early March plus possibly one Batch 1/Batch 2 launch (about four launches total), but says the exact quarterly launch count doesn't matter much as long as Batch 1 ships and Batch 2 follows in a reasonable time and production cadence syncs with launch availability.

Kook frames his own valuation approach around large step-function price levels ($50, $100, $150, $200 stock) rather than short-term quarterly launch-count noise, which he considers largely irrelevant to long-term thesis validity.

Kook mentions community member 'Katzi' found that eVTOL company Joby's telemetry-testing filings fall within the same spectrum bands ASTS operates in, citing it as an example of unforeseen future use cases (like eVTOLs and connected cars, referencing an Indian program linking cars to see around corners) that could expand ASTS's addressable market beyond current expectations.

Kook pushes back on accusations that the Space Mob community are 'paid pumpers,' stating no one he knows receives compensation from the company for promoting the stock, and instead calls major investment banks underwriting SpaceX's IPO (Bank of America, Goldman Sachs, JP Morgan, Morgan Stanley) the real 'paid pumpers,' alleging some banks (except Bank of America) have avoided covering or mentioning ASTS to avoid upsetting Elon Musk ahead of the lucrative SpaceX IPO fees.

Kook closes by warning of potential continued volatility ahead (citing risks like another government shutdown or Iran strikes) and advises listeners not to be tricked by macro-driven volatility or FUD — sell only if you don't like the stock on its own merits, and consider that volatility can also present buying opportunities.

There's a decent chance NASA's Artemis moon mission (astronauts orbiting the moon and returning, ahead of a later landing mission) launches in the second half of February 2026 as well, potentially within 2-4 days of the New Glenn/BlueBird 7 launch, giving shareholders a chance to see both missions close together.

As with the Block 1 launch, the company will likely run a signup process for shareholders to attend the launch viewing, but invites this time will probably be more rationed (his guess: roughly a third Blue Origin/government guests to two-thirds SpaceMob, or possibly half-half) versus the Block 1 SpaceX Falcon 9 launch where nearly everyone who signed up got an invite; attendees don't need a formal viewing-area seat, since the rocket is visible from anywhere in the Cape area for several miles.

The stock sold off heavily yesterday, partly driven by AI-generated ('AI slop') headlines, on fear that Blue Origin's newly announced 'Tera Wave' constellation would compete with AST SpaceMobile — a fear he says is unfounded.

A SpaceMob community member known as Katzi noted that Tera Wave uses Q/V band — the same bands AST's own gateway/feeder antennas can point up into space with — and speculated that Tera Wave could become a Golden Dome backbone data layer, with AST's composite or specialized government satellites interfacing with it to handle missile-launch sensing/detection and tracking, position-navigation-timing (PNT), electronic warfare (spoofing, jamming), and communications to warfighters, drones, and other assets on the ground.

Anpanman says he independently found it odd that Tera Wave would use optical links and Q/V band for direct uplink/downlink to ground customers, since that requires a strong tracking antenna on the customer's end — but it makes much more sense as a backbone connecting to other satellites, which supports Katzi's theory.

The stock had previously followed a repeating '1-2-3 impulse' chart pattern (spike up, small pullback, bigger spike, pullback, smaller spike, cool off) roughly four times, but the current move has broken that pattern, with each impulse now bigger than the last.

He attributes the pattern break to the company now pursuing Golden Dome business (changing the overall company story) plus a shift from one launch every several months/a year to launches roughly every month to month-and-a-half.

Elon Musk has targeted SpaceX going public by July 2026; Anpanman expects that as institutional investors research the space sector ahead of that IPO, it will draw new investment interest and speculative capital into the whole sector, benefiting AST SpaceMobile.

He believes the setup for ASTS heading into summer 2026 is very bullish given ongoing launch catalysts, potential Golden Dome awards (e.g., via SHIELD, and speculatively via a program he calls NOBL), and rising sector attention; he suggests a prior end-of-year stock price guess of $200-300 could be reached sooner than expected.

He mentions one of the largest financial publications is currently writing a story about the SpaceMob community and AST SpaceMobile, and relays an anecdote about two real-estate attorneys at his recent New York property closing who quickly grasped the AST SpaceMobile pitch (one had experienced poor existing satellite phone service on T-Mobile) and, he believes, likely bought shares afterward — offered as evidence of growing mainstream awareness.

A separate batch of 3 BlueBird satellites is expected to ship down to Cape Canaveral for a SpaceX Falcon 9 launch, possibly as soon as this week or next week, with the Falcon 9 launch itself expected roughly a week or two after the New Glenn 3 mission; SpaceX currently has only one active pad and a backlog integrating payloads into fairings, which could cause some delay.

He expects AST's Q4 2025 earnings call in early March 2026, guessing March 3rd since that matches last year's call date (per Bloomberg's estimate); he expects the call to cover Golden Dome progress and possibly a new definitive customer agreement, alongside updates on satellite batches shipped to the Cape and the completed BlueBird 7/New Glenn launch.

Anpanman disclosed buying 5,000 ASTS shares during yesterday's pullback; he described purchase prices during the dip as around $198, then separately said he bought some shares at $101 and the rest at $98 — the figures were inconsistent/unclear in his account and should be treated as uncertain rather than smoothed.

He also bought 250 of the July $150/$180 call spreads, paying roughly $3.80 to $4.20 per spread on a $30-wide spread, calling it highly speculative and saying options should be assumed a total loss; this was part of a separate speculative trading allocation distinct from a core position he doesn't touch.

Space Mob had been speculating, based on diligence rather than blind guessing, that ASTS would become a government contractor, and last week that speculation was confirmed.

The stock ripped about 10% on Thursday and moved further on Friday, adding roughly $8 billion of market cap around the news; Kook estimates a contract like this is worth at least about $1 billion, so the market pricing it at roughly 8x that revenue estimate struck him as fairly rational, though he expects shorts to disagree.

Citing analysis from X user 'Katsy,' Kook argues that being placed in the third (later) tranche of SHIELD recipients indicates deeper vetting of unique, differentiated capabilities, whereas commodity-type vendors tend to land in the earlier tranches.

Kook cites ITU filings showing AST's orbital plan includes sun-synchronous orbit shells (not needed for commercial service) and satellites at lower, staggered altitudes, which he and others believe point to Position, Navigation, and Tracking (PNT)-type government applications, plus roles in a 'transport layer' (moving data around in space) and a 'custody layer' (tracking identified assets such as mobile missile launchers).

Citing an AI-generated analysis from 'S&J Investments,' Kook says the SHIELD contract gives AST access to a shared $151 billion government funding pool, the ability to skip 18-month procurement cycles for rapid contract awards, and an official designation as critical dual-use infrastructure.

Kook relays that Anpanman pointed out this is the official validation of the dual-use (commercial + government) revenue model that skeptics previously dismissed ('the clueless cult'), representing a material de-risking event for investors on the sidelines and opening a new stream of total addressable market, comparable to how SpaceX's Starshield validated a similar opportunity.

Kook flags the MDA's NOBLE contract (Nimble Options for Buying Layered Effects) — a flexible acquisition vehicle/wrapper allowing the government to buy technology quickly — as a potentially large opportunity that some in Space Mob (e.g., Kevin Chen) have focused on, but which Kook admits he hasn't researched much and hasn't included in his due-diligence doc.

Kook notes Anpanman tweeted about the NOBLE contract this week (with a Cerberus/globe image), describing it as an 'open invitation' that could be awarded at any time and could expand AST's technology into additional, mostly non-communication, use cases.

Kook says Scott Wisniewski's comments on a prior call led him to believe the new Midland building is for Golden Dome-focused arrays that may differ from typical communication-satellite arrays, though he stresses this is his own speculation and not confirmed.

Kook expects a more synchronized, sustained satellite launch cadence once the company gets to May and June 2026, after which he believes the pace of milestones will accelerate meaningfully.

Kook says there is now 'ample,' including photographic, evidence of a meaningful business relationship between AST SpaceMobile and Blue Origin, and that FM2 (an SDA government satellite) is likely to launch on New Glenn's third flight, which is one of four launches Blue Origin needs to qualify for government business — a pairing he calls synergistic for both companies, though not officially confirmed.

Kook notes Blue Origin's larger '9x4' ('Big Dog') rocket variant specifically named AST SpaceMobile and Golden Dome in its description of clients being served, which he took as an early hint (calling it 'hopium' at the time) that this customized rocket would be used to deliver AST's Golden Dome capabilities.

Kook argues the market is shifting AST's investment case from 'if' statements (if ARPU is X, if user counts reach Y, if the constellation is delivered, the company does $40 billion of revenue) toward 'unless' statements (the company will do $40 billion of revenue unless people stop using cell phones), citing this shift as the real catalyst for share-price re-rating, and notes the stock has already moved from roughly $40 to roughly $100 as some of those variables have been de-risked.

Kook references a Deutsche Bank price estimate of around $700/share for AST SpaceMobile as an example of what he considers plausible once more variables shift from 'if' to 'unless.'

Responding to the short thesis question of 'why doesn't AT&T just do this themselves,' Kook argues incumbent MNOs and tower companies lack AST's roughly 400 RF PhDs, are structured as dividend-paying businesses unable to redirect a billion dollars of R&D spend, and are unlikely to pivot into space-based connectivity.

Kook theorizes that an X/Twitter outage occurring around the same time as the Golden Dome announcement, combined with Morgan Stanley excluding ASTS from a space-sector industry report, reflects a deliberate effort by Elon Musk to muffle coverage of AST SpaceMobile, speculating banks with SpaceX IPO relationships are avoiding positive ASTS coverage to avoid upsetting Musk ahead of a potential SpaceX IPO.

Kook says the FCC continues to meet with AST SpaceMobile and is 'getting pretty close' to granting full Supplemental Coverage from Space (SCS) market access approval for AST's broader US constellation, beyond the Special Temporary Authorities (STAs) it currently operates under; he expresses high confidence this approval will ultimately happen, though he doesn't know the timing or market reaction.

Kook notes the EU is skeptical of relying on SpaceX for satellite services and that the 2 GHz mobile satellite band currently used by Viasat and Echostar (licenses expiring next year) is entering a new allocation process; he believes SpaceX won't win that spectrum and that Vodafone, via the SatCo joint venture (structured as a fully European entity), is well-positioned to secure it instead.

Kook flags a risk that escalating US-Europe tensions (referencing the Greenland situation) could Balkanize relations to a degree that complicates AST's EU spectrum ambitions, though he still views AST's European-controlled SatCo structure as putting it in a strong position to serve the EU market with Vodafone.

Kook frames 'Space 2.0' as a secular megatrend comparable to the rise of social media or SaaS, arguing that governments rallying around satellite technology (missile defense, backup GPS, resilient communications) and Starlink's roughly 10 million subscribers and rapid growth support the case for an ever-expanding total addressable market.

Citing Steve Mandel of Lone Pine Capital, Kook argues fast-growing companies that look expensive on current earnings (using Google and Nvidia as historical examples) are often actually cheap in hindsight, and that early market-share leaders in newly expanding markets tend to become hard-to-displace incumbents.

Kook speculates that AST SpaceMobile could someday acquire Iridium, which would immediately add roughly a $1 billion book of government business, allow upselling of improved services, let Iridium's constellation deorbit onto AST's own network for high margins, and add an estimated ~12 MHz of global spectrum cheaply, with dilution to ASTS shareholders that 'you wouldn't even notice' — explicitly framed as his own idea (debated with 'King Tut'), not company guidance.

Kook says he judges AST management as being in 'empire mode' (thinking in terms of a $500 billion to $1 trillion+ market cap outcome) based on aggressive moves like the SatCo venture and spectrum positioning, comparing Abel Avellan's ambition to comments Jeff Bezos has made about space being a multi-trillion-dollar market.

Kook points to Abel Avellan's lack of meaningful insider selling — aside from a small prepaid forward on his shares that he later rolled forward rather than letting be called away — plus his lack of a salary and modest option grant, as strong signals of an all-in owner-operator.

Kook expects a market correction/pullback in the near term driven by Greenland-related tariff noise with Europe, but argues that increased US investment in missile defense stemming from the Greenland situation is actually positive for AST SpaceMobile.

Spitballing potential dollar value, Anpanman estimates this first tranche could be worth roughly $1 billion to $2.5 billion to AST, explicitly caveating 'we'll see.'

He notes the timing lines up with what the community had been expecting — Space Mob had pushed its prediction to 'mid-January,' and the award materialized on January 15.

Anpanman is hopeful AST issues a formal PR/8-K on the award (as it did previously for the SDA and DIU awards) and says if he were company counsel he'd consider the news material enough to require an 8-K filing at minimum.

Community researcher CatSE ('Katzy') is credited as the first, going back to 2021-2022, to argue that AST's large phased-array satellites could be used for radar sensing, GPS backup, electronic warfare and other non-communications military applications beyond connectivity — roughly 10 different defense use cases are now understood to be applicable.

CatSE kept publishing this dual-use due diligence even during the stock's trough near $2 in early 2024, despite skepticism at times from within the community, including from Anpanman and Kook themselves.

Anpanman references having circulated Golden Dome-themed graphics referencing Cerberus (a defense-focused investor with a stake in Ligado) standing over a golden dome above the US, tied to the fact that Cerberus co-founder Steve Feinberg serves as the Department of War's number two — used as part of the community's argument that Ligado spectrum would be integral to Golden Dome.

AST is separately being evaluated for MDA 'Noble,' described as a specialized umbrella vehicle ('nimble options for buying layered effects') designed to bypass traditional slow military procurement, letting MDA rapidly fund non-traditional contractors like commercial space companies through submitted white papers rather than a single rigid contract.

The Noble solicitation calls specifically for space-based sensors and integrated non-kinetic/electronic warfare capabilities — detecting RF launches, tracking hypersonic signatures, jamming and intelligence-gathering — which Anpanman argues fits AST's phased-array satellites well with only limited software/hardware changes.

Anpanman characterizes today's SHIELD award as 'big' in the company's own sizing language, while the still-pending Noble opportunity could be 'massive'; he is uncertain on timing, guessing it could come in 'a few days, weeks.'

He argues this Noble-type work would shift AST's positioning from a communications provider (data to warfighters, drone/vehicle coordination) toward being part of the actual 'kill chain' — detecting and stopping missile threats — which could command higher margins and stickier contracts than standard connectivity.

FM1 and FM2, currently at Cape Canaveral awaiting launch on Blue Origin's New Glenn 3, are HALO-program satellites — SDA funding developed these as prototypes to prove out AST's technology, and Anpanman believes HALO also pays for the launches (both the ISRO LVM3 and this New Glenn launch).

Anpanman believes (without full certainty) the FM1/FM2 New Glenn 3 launch has slipped from a January target to more likely February, and possibly into March, due to government-requirement changes that delayed satellite completion plus New Glenn booster-refurbishment delays tied to reusing a previously flown booster for the first time.

Anpanman's own characterization of Scott's comments is that 2026 revenue could reach 'hundreds of millions,' implying the 9 existing defense contracts are expected to grow materially and that new Golden Dome-related orders are anticipated.

Manufacturing footprint has grown from what the community once considered a large 400,000 square feet to 500,000 square feet currently, with Anpanman speculating it could flex up further to 600,000-700,000 square feet.

Anpanman contrasts this reaction with awards to peers like Rocket Lab, Voyager and Firefly, which he says are typically already 'priced in' and expected; he argues the market was more surprised by AST's award because most investors don't fully appreciate the non-communications applications of AST's large phased arrays.

He predicted to Kook (before the news) that the market reaction to a Golden Dome-related announcement would be very positive, and says that's what played out.

Anpanman expects most of these analysts will have to raise price targets given the news, though he expects Scotiabank specifically to resist changing its view, noting Scotia's notes since June have not meaningfully addressed the defense angle.

He suspects much of the street is waiting for further satellite launches and unfolding events before getting more aggressive with rating/target upgrades, which he calls a fair posture.

He also references a short seller nicknamed 'Valuations,' who he says built a meme/cult-framing short thesis rather than substantive new arguments, and notes newer short sellers tend to omit or downplay the military side of the business because they don't understand it.

Anpanman contextualizes American Tower's share sale as part of a broader tower-sector decline: after EchoStar pulled back its own network buildout, the market lost a 4th major tower spender, pressuring American Tower, Crown Castle and SBA share prices, compounded by growing fears that Supplemental Coverage from Space will erode tower demand.

He draws a parallel to Iridium, which he says the market similarly dismissed on the supplemental-coverage-from-space threat before 'suddenly' waking up, with Iridium's stock falling from around $40 to about $19.

He recalls Scotiabank's bear-case model using an out-year free cash flow build of roughly $3.5 billion, growing to $6 billion, then $10 billion, then about $17.5 billion (around 2032), noting that reaching $17.5 billion in annual free cash flow would place AST among the top 10 public companies by free cash flow — using Scotia's own bearish model to argue the long-term case is actually very large.

He argues the short case has historically focused only on commercial adoption/willingness-to-pay and largely ignored the defense side, where no one has really built a quantified valuation argument; he guesses defense could be worth 'a few billion' in annual revenue depending on use cases, covering radar sensing and electronic warfare in addition to communications.

On sum-of-the-parts valuation of AST's roughly $40 billion market cap, he pushes back on the idea that a $12-15 billion valuation for the Ligado spectrum alone is excessive, leaving $25-30 billion for the combined commercial and military business, arguing this isn't unreasonable and drawing a parallel to EchoStar, whose spectrum was undervalued by the market until AT&T and Starlink/SpaceX-related deals repriced it.

He notes the Trump administration has stated a goal of having Golden Dome operational before the President leaves office, adding time pressure to the buildout and reinforcing the case for well-resourcing capable providers like AST.

He frames the broader competitive dynamic as the US and its space companies (including AST and Starlink) versus China's efforts to replicate US space capabilities, rather than AST and Starlink being true adversaries, noting the commercial market is large enough for both.

He references FCC Chair Carr's comments identifying direct-to-cell as a key area of US leadership focus, and cites Starlink's use in Iran amid Russian-technology jamming as an example of satellite connectivity's dual-use, defense-relevant value (e.g., backup GPS, electronic warfare/jamming resilience).

He mentions roughly 4 to 5 new space-focused ETFs are about to launch, drawing an analogy to the early days of crypto investing when the space was overlooked before becoming mainstream, and notes space stocks were among the top performers of 2025 and have continued into 2026.

He draws analogies to Amazon (dismissed early for needing to 'sell every book on earth' before expanding into AWS) and Nvidia (graphics processors expanding into other applications) to argue AST is similarly expanding beyond its original commercial-broadband use case into detection/radar applications.

Reading the Scotiabank report directly, Kook paraphrases its key points: ASTS has 'without yet a single retail customer,' faces 'the challenge of orbiting 50 satellites,' and there is 'evidence of slow user adoption in the US and Japan'; the report also states the analyst 'cannot remember a single time when the company got timing right' on guidance.

Kook expected the stock to correct for a week or two given how much options-driven 'heat' had built up, but was surprised at how quickly the decline was bought back up after Bank of America's note reminded investors to 'zoom out': 2026 features a likely SpaceX IPO, regulatory changes, ramping services, and increasing federal/defense support for space technology.

Kook believes ASTS's guidance/timing disclosure practices (i.e., the company being vague about exact launch timing) will likely change in the next 3 to 6 months as more milestones 'shake down.'

Based on prior disclosure changes (the company added 'testing' language to its production-cadence updates, detailing arrays and satellites in construction), Kook estimates the production funnel is moving roughly 6 units per month, which implies 1 to 6+ satellites are likely in the clean room at any given time; since a CEO would not be allowed to sign a satellite inside a clean-room environment, Kook concludes Bibic likely did not sign a Batch 1 satellite.

Kook's conclusion: the implication is that Bibic signed something from Batch 2 or beyond, not Batch 1, since worst-case (Batch 1 far from done) would contradict prior company disclosures and common sense; he separately guesses that AT&T's McElroy signed a Batch 1 satellite in an earlier similar facility-tour photo, since AT&T should logically sign the first batch of commercial satellites.

Kook restarted his independent orbital-tracking ('birdwatching') of FM1 using data separate from contributor Katzi's; he sees no evidence yet of FM1's antenna unfurling, but does see evidence of a more stable orbit and flight plan, suggesting FM1 has likely finished or improved its detumbling process.

Saudi Telecom (stc) raised a large sukuk (Sharia-compliant bond financing); Kook hasn't seen a press release confirming that money has hit ASTS's account and doesn't expect one, but says tracking partner financings can offer clues about their ability to meet contractual obligations, and he'd feel relatively comfortable about Saudi credit exposure specifically.

Kook argues ASTS should be valued as a scalable 'platform' rather than a niche point solution; platforms can command 3x-10x higher valuation multiples because usage/value propagates via other companies' and individuals' creativity, capital, and sales efforts rather than the platform owner's own resources.

Kook expects consumer use cases (e.g., India's car mesh use case, recreational use, IoT) to expand dramatically once ASTS opens its platform to third-party-driven use cases, similar to how military use cases are already emerging.

Kook, citing contributor Socrates's technical work (part of Kook's pinned-tweet DD), contrasts GPS — a low-power, one-way broadcast that is fragile and easy to jam, as seen in recent war theaters — with ASTS's signal, which he says can either operate under the noise floor (unjammable/undetectable) or be powerful enough to overwhelm other RF traffic and avoid being blocked.

Kook references a Wall Street Journal article on electronic warfare highlighting the EA-18G Growler jamming aircraft's role in recent military raids and raising the question of whether the US is underinvesting in electronic-warfare technology because it's 'not as sexy'; he believes the US military will increase investment in this area, strengthening the case for ASTS's jam-resistant, satellite-based PNT capability.

Kook endorses Katzi's 'first principles' framework for evaluating ASTS: understanding whether the company is the low-cost/most-efficient user of spectrum for MNOs, since being the most efficient and scalable deployment of spectrum should, over time, lead to good outcomes even if the specific catalysts can't be predicted in advance.

On pricing/ARPU: Kook argues that even if satellite connectivity were nominally 'free' to consumers (as some initially thought SpaceX's offering would be), MNOs still effectively pay for it because reduced customer churn has real economic value — avoiding customer acquisition cost (CAC), which he illustrates via AT&T's expensive NFL ad spend offering free phones to switch carriers; a contributor ('at Keys Minnesota') wrote up the various avoided MNO costs (CapEx efficiencies, etc.) that could support MNOs paying ASTS billions per year.

Kook argues the 'first three legs' of ASTS bear risk — technology, financing, and regulatory — are now largely resolved (reflected in a ~$100 stock price), and that the next leg of scrutiny will be execution and whether the commercial model actually delivers, which is why short-seller focus and volume will increasingly shift there.

Kook explains why he reconciles his financial models to EBIT rather than EBITDA for ASTS: satellites experience real economic depreciation because they deorbit and must be replaced, unlike non-depreciating assets (e.g., land), so EBIT properly captures the ongoing capital cost of maintaining the constellation, and he tracks this via an independent depreciation build in his model.

ASTS is able to fly its satellites at 670 kilometers because its high signal power allows it to close the link budget from higher altitude, whereas SpaceX must fly lower, causing its satellites to deorbit (and need replacement) at a nonlinearly faster rate, meaning more 'dollars in orbit' burn up faster; Kook believes the market will eventually reward the more capital-efficient company (ASTS) with a higher multiple via free-cash-flow conversion.

Kook cites a tweet from Peter Adderton (an MNO CEO) noting SpaceX's implied market cap exceeds the combined market cap of the world's largest MNO carriers; Kook says this doesn't have to be 'wrong' since a disruptive new business model (he compares it to Apple in phone hardware) can be worth more than the legacy, high-CapEx, price-competitive businesses it depends on, and says he'd prefer a publicly traded SpaceX for price transparency.

Kook read and enjoyed (found well-written, with some humor) a Substack short thesis by a writer going by 'Valuations,' but critiques it as being partly driven by behavioral pattern-recognition (treating high retail community activity/'Space Mob' as a red flag) and notes the author concedes he doesn't fully understand the underlying technology.

Kook recalls that a prior short thesis (from Kerrisdale, referenced as 'Caristel') was factually wrong in claiming ASTS used expensive gallium arsenide solar panels as part of an economics argument against the company, which Kook says was evidence the short seller didn't understand the technology — though he notes the stock still fell about 90% at one point despite that error, so being technically wrong didn't stop the short thesis from working short-term.

Kook points out that several of 'Valuations’' stated upside risks to the short thesis are effectively the Space Mob's base case: AT&T offering FirstNet beta service in the first half of 2026 (already announced), successful satellite launches, and a SpaceX IPO potentially near $1.5 trillion creating increased sector FOMO.

Kook mentions the Space Mob has produced a 'vibe-coded' valuation model that Anpanman spent significant time checking (Kook has not reviewed it himself), and notes trader Kevin Mack has reportedly capitulated to a bullish view with a $1,000 price target, while cautioning that Kevin Mack's specific risk framework/regime changes frequently.

Kook warns new investors against holding leveraged ETFs like the 2x-long ASTX for long-term positions: because these funds rebalance daily to maintain their tracking ratio (buying more when the stock rises, selling when it falls), the mechanism effectively 'buys high and sells low,' causing underperformance (gamma burn/volatility decay) in almost any scenario except a straight, low-volatility uptrend.

Device availability for MSS spectrum today is limited because satellite capabilities are still limited; as near-broadband service arrives, OEMs are expected to move beyond flagship devices (Samsung, Pixel, Apple with proprietary waveforms) toward embedding satellite connectivity in smartwatches, phones and IoT devices broadly. He estimated that by 'the early 2030s, mid-2035s' nearly every device will be able to talk to both cellular and satellite, opening a massive market opportunity.

Iridium sees fewer regulatory challenges for itself because it already holds its own spectrum, but expects more challenges for others going forward, especially ensuring global rights work consistently as the world becomes more nationalized and less willing to share spectrum.

Regulators may see D2D as an opportunity to impose additional requirements once they realize every device — not just a few hundred thousand — could connect via satellite; this isn't currently a blocker in the US or Europe, but could become one for achieving full global coverage.

There is a lag in many countries in establishing the regulatory/licensing framework needed for stable D2D operations; Europe and the US are ahead, and some countries informally approve service without a full framework, but building proper frameworks everywhere takes time, and 'time is money and time is service to customers.'

Over the last year, MNOs have shifted from viewing D2D as 'a cool marketing tool' to treating it as a critical, must-have piece of infrastructure (e.g., ensuring access to 911/eCall if terrestrial service fails); Amy called this shift the most leading indicator that the business will be successful.

Viasat already runs multiple large, profitable businesses on far less bandwidth than what's coming; offering 1,000 times more capacity without giving a 1,000x discount presents a major opportunity as new MNO, automotive, and IoT partnerships come online and connections grow.

Despite Starlink's head start, Amy Mehlman believes there is room for multiple players given global demand, and doesn't expect the market to become a monopoly; competition is needed for the market to grow and offer innovative services, and regulators recognize this too.

There won't be a winner-take-all outcome because no single operator has enough spectrum/capacity to serve every vertical that will require bandwidth (citing AI and autonomous vehicles as coming demand drivers); in in-flight connectivity specifically, Viasat took market share from a prior competitor (Gogo) and has retained a large position even as new entrants arrived, due to airline/consumer choice dynamics.

Analysts balance research independence against investment-banking relationships (future convertible bond, equity, or debt underwriting fees) and against pressure from big trading/prime-brokerage clients; Anpanman describes this as a 'dirty secret' where a fund's director of research can face pressure to reevaluate a stock view if a large hedge fund client is unhappy.

Anpanman argues the timing of the downgrade — right before what he expects to be positive catalysts — helped bail out short sellers and gave them a 'day or two' of reprieve, since analyst ratings affect algos, sentiment, and momentum trading even if fundamentals-focused investors dismiss them.

Starlink's direct-to-cell service has about 650 satellites in orbit and is, in Anpanman's characterization, a 'minimum viable product' limited to texting and some data/messaging via dumbed-down apps — it cannot do voice over LTE and is not full broadband, unlike AST's planned service.

Starlink direct-to-cell satellites originally were designed to fly around 550 km but had to be lowered to roughly 350 km to make the link budget work for phone communication, and Starlink is now lowering fixed-wireless satellite orbits too, which Anpanman says increases deorbit/burn-up frequency (raising more launch cadence for SpaceX).

Anpanman notes AST spent about 5 years developing and taping out its own AST5000 ASIC, and argues ASIC development generally takes 3-5 years per industry norms, so SpaceX bulls' claimed 2-2.5 year timeline for their own ASIC (roughly 12 months in already, another ~1.5 years to go) is very aggressive.

Starlink's proposed network design requires a phone to reconnect to a satellite roughly every 1-2 minutes, which Anpanman argues drains phone battery and limits Starlink's ability to support voice over LTE now or for the foreseeable future.

AST operates as a wholesaler/infrastructure layer that reuses MNO partners' own spectrum (e.g., AT&T's low-band), and does not need consumer brand recognition because AT&T, Verizon, Vodafone, and other MNOs sell and brand the service to their own subscribers (e.g., 'Verizon satellite service'), unlike Starlink which sells terminals and service directly to consumers and must build its own brand.

Because AST doesn't need to spend on consumer marketing or customer acquisition, Anpanman expects the business can eventually reach EBITDA margins around 90%.

Anpanman argues Starlink is effectively a 'Trojan horse' into the wireless business over time, potentially via an MVNO partnership or a 'Starlink Mobile' offering, which is not the model AST pursues.

Anpanman does a rough sum-of-the-parts: he estimates the Ligado spectrum deal alone is worth about $15 billion, implying the market is valuing AST's commercial business at only about $20 billion (as of the prior day's valuation) — not even counting the military/defense business.

Anpanman calculates the report's own valuation implies a free cash flow yield of about 45.9%, which he calls insane for a 'fairly valued' Sell-rated stock.

Anpanman notes Scotia's price target has stayed roughly static at $42-45 over time, with the analyst nudging the target down by about $1.50-$2 each time AST does a new financing to account for incremental dilution.

Anpanman notes Saudi Telecom is owned by Saudi Arabia's PIF sovereign wealth fund, which also holds a large SpaceX stake and knows Elon Musk well — meaning PIF evaluated Starlink for years before ultimately choosing AST, which he frames as a strong validation signal the report ignores.

The report cites Starlink signing Virgin Media O2 in the UK as a competitive win, but Anpanman says Virgin had no other choice since AST and Vodafone hold UK exclusivity; similarly, KDDI, NTT Docomo, and SoftBank signed with Starlink in Japan only because Rakuten holds AST exclusivity there.

The report highlights a rumored Starlink deal with a Mexican MNO (possibly Telcel) but omits that AST is already testing service with Altán, Mexico's government-owned wholesale carrier holding nationwide 700 MHz spectrum tasked with providing 100% coverage; Anpanman also notes Elon Musk previously called Carlos Slim a 'drug dealer,' making a Slim-Starlink partnership unlikely.

On Europe, Anpanman argues Starlink is largely locked out except Ukraine, and that AST (via Vodafone and the SatCo JV) is positioned to obtain 2 GHz MSS spectrum in Europe, expected to be allocated around May 2027, with Anpanman doubting EchoStar will secure that allocation because the EU will see through EchoStar to Starlink's involvement.

Anpanman notes Starlink itself has not expanded beyond 650 direct-to-cell satellites, speculating this may be because SpaceX is waiting to improve the service with V3 rather than continuing to add current-generation direct-to-cell satellites.

FM2 (BlueBird 7), described as an SDA Halo-related satellite, is expected to launch on Blue Origin's New Glenn, likely in early February based on timing, followed by two batches of Block 2 BlueBirds launching on Falcon 9, likely in early and late February.

Anpanman expects a production-cadence update from the company 'relatively soon.'

Anpanman argues satellite connectivity is valuable specifically because it's used in the moments people most need it (emergencies, lost kids, no coverage areas), comparing it to how people already pay a large premium for cell service used only ~5-10% of the day.

BlueBird FM2 has arrived safely at Cape Canaveral and is now in the payload processing facility of its (unconfirmed) launch vehicle provider. Citing analysis from 'Tanner' showing differences in the FCC approvals versus AST's prior SpaceX-launched satellites, Kook speculates FM2 will most likely launch on Blue Origin's New Glenn rather than SpaceX.

FM1 was previously delayed roughly 9 months in 2025; Kook believes the critical-path production issues behind that slip are now resolved, with the remaining integration item being the AST5000 ASIC, which he expects to be finished within this quarter (Q1 2026).

That relative motion enables dynamic baselines and viewing angles 'perfect for radar signal geolocation and emitter analysis' — i.e., this is testing tied to non-communications, defense-oriented use cases sponsored by the Space Development Agency (SDA), a 'try before you buy' situation ahead of the government ordering a full constellation.

Kook speculates that when McElfresh visited Midland he likely saw roughly two dozen satellites in varying stages of completion, including about six that are largely done (across 'batch 1' and 'batch 2'), which Kook believes is what gives AT&T confidence in the constellation timeline.

Kook speculates that a Golden Dome-related announcement could come 'tomorrow,' reasoning that SpaceX tends to put out a flurry of its own news releases right before ASTS makes a major announcement, and that SpaceX had a heavy news week just prior to this recording. He stresses he has no actual confirmation of this.