Episodes

A few months prior, FCC filings showed AST plans to operate some satellites in a polar (north-to-south) orbit, which he says is typically used for military applications and Earth observation because it allows coverage of every square inch of Earth; he recalls it being 'north of 20 satellites' expected to have that orbit.

He argues polar orbit coverage would support sensing/detection of missile launches coming over the North Pole toward the U.S., and that there isn't a large enough consumer/Arctic-researcher market to justify a polar shell for commercial reasons alone, implying military intent.

FM1 and FM2 (Block 2 satellites) were delayed due to changes in customer requirements, which Anpanman says is Space Mob speculation but he believes were military-driven requests; FM2 specifically has had a change in orbital inclination.

He cites Kook's prior point that government work typically requires a company to show up fully capitalized to prove it can deliver, and argues the production build-out well beyond commercial needs signals confidence in winning large government awards; headcount has grown from about 500 employees to about 1,800, and he says it may be higher now.

Anpanman estimates that a traditional defense prime building something comparable in power, communications, and processing capability would cost roughly $300 million to $1 billion per satellite, inclusive of launch, whereas AST can put up satellites for about $21 to $23 million apiece — the incremental cost of materials, assembly, and launch, not including R&D.

He argues timing favors AST because traditional contractors are proposing to build capability over 1-3 years, whereas AST's satellites are already being built and launched; FM1 and FM2 were built to spec for the HALO demonstration (which originally asked for 2 prototypes before the end of 2026), but the company accelerated the timeline, which he says was fortuitous given the Trump administration and the emergence of Golden Dome.

He describes AST's satellite as a $21-23 million, 100-kilowatt power-generating platform capable of direct-to-device communications plus sensing/radar and some level of compute, and says swapping processors could reconfigure it for a data-center-style use case, though he views space data centers as still some time away.

He frames the near-term military rationale for space-based compute as resiliency — if ground data centers become unavailable during a conflict (including a conflict reaching the U.S.), having compute in the space layer matters.

Anpanman says he tweeted that the roughly $23 million per-satellite price point is a 'checkmate metric' for the Department of War because it cheaply solves two big missile-defense problems: getting power into orbit and creating a highly capable sensor (radar, PNT, etc.).

Anpanman's key takeaway from Musk's comments is that SpaceX's V3 satellites won't be ready for a long time — not until 2027 or later — while AST is on the cusp of launching its first Block 2 satellite and, by his guess, will have about 6 Block 2 satellites completed (after FM1) by the end of this month.

He notes Trump wants a Golden Dome system operational before the end of his term (i.e., by around 2028), which is not much time, and argues this favors a company like AST that already has a 6-7 ton, 100-kilowatt satellite with sensing, radar, and PNT capability and swappable compute, ready now.

He argues the market and sell-side research have not priced in any Golden Dome opportunity for AST SpaceMobile at all — sell-side coverage has essentially no mention of Golden Dome, and Bank of America's 2026/2027 projections have nothing for military revenue.

He poses a hypothetical: if the company announced a several-hundred-million-dollar to billion-dollar Golden Dome contract for sensing and power for the constellation in the next few weeks, he speculates the stock could double given how unpriced that opportunity currently is.

He attributes the delay in more formal Golden Dome news partly to the recent U.S. government shutdown, and guesses more formal information will surface around January 2026, with informal leaks likely in the remaining weeks of December.

Anpanman predicts 2026 will be a major year for space investing broadly, pulling in new sector-focused and defense-specialist investors who haven't previously looked at AST SpaceMobile, in addition to existing TMT investors.

He argues that terrestrial data center growth (for AI, crypto, etc.) is constrained by finite power, land, cooling/water resources, and that moving data centers to space is an eventuality, though not a near-term replacement for terrestrial data centers.

Anpanman says he has never been more bullish, and characterizes the potential Golden Dome opportunity as bigger than the Verizon deal (referencing Verizon's definitive commercial agreement at the end of May 2024), which he says validated the company and was foundational to getting to where it is today.

Anpanman says Q1 2026 is setting up to be a big quarter for catalysts: an ISRO rocket launch that got pushed to 'the 20th' due to space conditions, followed shortly after (probably early January) by BB-7 (a Block 2 BlueBird).

He guesses PR will come in the next few weeks announcing the first batch of three Block 2 satellites being sent to Cape Canaveral, with a second batch of three following not long after.

Responding to a comment that Trump favors 'the biggest' things, Anpanman notes Block 1 BlueBirds are already the largest communications array in low Earth orbit, and Block 2 satellites will be about 3 times bigger, calling this a marginal PR benefit that could help win a Golden Dome award.

Asked whether ASTS is the riskiest stock to short right now, Anpanman says yes, citing the stack of 2026 catalysts and an unpriced Golden Dome opportunity; he adds that Scotiabank downgraded the stock based on valuation without accounting for this dynamic and will need to reconsider, and that adding Golden Dome revenue on top of what he describes as roughly a billion dollars of contracted/committed commercial revenue from MNOs should push price targets and research models higher.

Asked about solar power arrays and potential capex/revenue capture, Anpanman explains AST's Micron building-block design hasn't changed since BlueWalker 3 (roughly 30cm-by-30cm panels); Block 2 combines two Micron panels, and he believes each Block 2 fold combines about 16 of them, with fewer folds/unfolds needed for full deployment, reducing mechanical complexity.

He speculates the company could eventually sell Microns without the antenna portion to third parties purely as power-generation building blocks, or license its roughly 3,800-patent portfolio to other manufacturers, though he says that isn't the current focus — the company is prioritizing production capacity to pursue the opportunities directly in front of it.

On the AI-data-center-in-space opportunity, Anpanman argues no other company, including SpaceX, is currently putting up 6-7 ton satellites with 100-120 kilowatts of onboard power, giving AST a competitive edge for the next 2-3 years, though he expects other players (potentially defense primes) to eventually pursue similar architectures since power generation and heat dissipation are the core bottlenecks for space-based compute.

Anpanman closes by acknowledging the stock could still see 20-50% drawdowns depending on macro conditions over coming weeks or quarters, but says he remains highly confident in the company's opportunities and plans to host another space the next day or the day after; he notes this update may take some pressure off Kook to cover everything.

After the sale, American Tower's total ownership would fall to roughly 2.4 million shares (stated with uncertainty by Anpanman: 'was it 2.4 million shares?').

Citing former American Tower CTO Ed Knapp (now retired), Anpanman notes American Tower doesn't typically make venture investments or take stakes in other public companies, framing yesterday's sale as a strategic gain-recognition move rather than a loss of conviction.

Anpanman estimates American Tower's average cost basis was around $6/share (Class A shares bought at $10, earlier private shares perhaps around $3), implying a roughly $31 million original investment grew to about $341 million from the sale — an approximately 1,000% return.

Anpanman attributes recent stock de-ratings at tower companies (American Tower, Crown Castle, SBAC) partly to direct-to-cell technology reducing future MNO capex spent on terrestrial towers in rural/uneconomic areas.

American Tower has about $1.9 billion in cash but over $50 billion of debt (approximate figures per Anpanman), reinforcing his read that the share sale was a rational corporate-finance move by a leveraged company monetizing a strategic (not speculative) position.

The stock briefly dipped under $70 during the sale, which Anpanman characterized as a 'sloppy' execution by the Barclays broker working the order; with roughly 11 million shares of volume that day, the roughly 2 million-plus share sale still left the stock roughly flat.

Anpanman interprets a dedicated Micron-only facility as a signal the company intends to use that building block for other applications beyond BlueBird satellites, since a pure-Micron line without the array attached would only make sense if the Microns themselves had standalone uses.

Anpanman speculates the company may be targeting production beyond the current 6-satellites-per-month goal, possibly up to 10-12 per month, with the extra capacity potentially serving non-core applications beyond the commercial constellation.

Anpanman interprets the combination of a dedicated Micron facility plus the newly disclosed government shell as a hint that the company expects to hear back soon on a Golden Dome-related award.

Anpanman says it appears, from the outside, that SpaceX is now treating AI compute capacity on satellites as a major growth vector it intends to pursue.

StarCloud reportedly executed its first AI workload on an NVIDIA processor aboard a CubeSat, announced that same morning; Anpanman is skeptical of StarCloud's large-solar-array approach on debris/Kessler-syndrome survivability grounds, suggesting a smaller satellite design (like a BlueBird generating 100-120 kilowatts) may be more resilient.

Anpanman argues AST SpaceMobile's satellites are uniquely well-positioned for repurposing into (or building alongside) AI data centers because they already generate 100-120 kilowatts of power, are engineered to survive space's extreme temperature swings and radiation, and the company holds about 3,800 patents and patent-pending claims relevant to satellite design, versus Starlink's comparatively small phased arrays.

Space is argued to be advantageous for data-center cooling since heat can be radiated directly to space rather than requiring water-based cooling, which Anpanman contrasts with the growing land/water/electricity strain of terrestrial AI data centers.

Anpanman raises an open concern about the useful life of AI-compute satellites (roughly 5-7 years, based on typical GPU/semiconductor lifespan) and the long-run sustainability of deorbiting/burning up large numbers of satellites, suggesting future reusable rocket second stages (Starship, New Glenn) could eventually retrieve and recover these assets instead.

Anpanman notes AST's phased-array design already functions as a passive radiator by distributing processors across the array rather than clustering them, which he sees as an advantage for adding AI compute capability, though he acknowledges the array's interconnects (e.g. something like InfiniBand) would likely need improvement to support AI workloads.

Anpanman argues that customers — not AST or its peers directly — will fund the estimated $20-30 billion needed to build space data centers, citing the model of data-center companies and the US government providing long-term contracts and upfront capital to companies with the manufacturing capability, similar to how AST's existing patents could alternatively be licensed for high-margin royalties (drawing an analogy to SanDisk's historic NAND flash patent-royalty business).

AST SpaceMobile currently has 9 military contracts and Anpanman expects the company to generate material government revenue in the coming year (2026).

Anpanman believes the company is on the cusp of receiving Golden Dome-related contracts, describing two separate areas — 'one is quite large, the other one is pretty large' — though he frames this as his own read of Wisniewski's UBS comments rather than confirmed guidance, expecting news in the coming weeks and at latest by January.

Discussed defense applications include electronic warfare (jamming a terrestrial network in a specific cell during military operations), position navigation timing (PNT) as a GPS backup, and radar/sensing enabled by the large phased array.

FM1 and FM2, the first two Block 2 BlueBird satellites, are each 7-ton satellites that Anpanman believes are being built for the US government as the customer, potentially tied to the HALO program; he attributes some production delays to changing government customer requirements rather than manufacturing problems.

Anpanman estimates Starlink currently has direct-to-cell agreements with about 10-11 MNOs globally covering roughly 300 million subscribers (he notes his numbers need updating), compared to AST SpaceMobile's roughly 50 MNO partners covering about 3 billion subscribers.

Citing Morgan Stanley and other research analysts covering SpaceX, Anpanman says a majority of Starlink's future subscriber growth, and about two-thirds of its top-line growth and profitability contribution, is expected to come from direct-to-cell.

Anpanman tweeted that 2026 will be 'the year of space investing,' driven partly by SpaceX's expected IPO as early as the end of summer 2026 at a reported $1.5 trillion valuation with a roughly $30 billion primary capital raise, which he expects will draw a wave of new institutional and retail investor attention into the broader space sector, including AST SpaceMobile.

Anpanman draws an analogy to how skepticism toward AI (circa 2022) and modular nuclear reactor companies like Oklo and NuScale (SMR) gave way to sharp re-ratings once real-world applications and demand (e.g. AI compute needing power) became evident, arguing a similar dynamic will play out for AST SpaceMobile and other space companies as AI data centers and Golden Dome become tangible themes.

Anpanman states AST SpaceMobile's stock reached a prior all-time high near $100 in October (2025), and predicts that level will end up looking like 'a new all-time low' during 2026 given the stacking catalysts he describes.

Anpanman closes by recommending listeners revisit Scott Wisniewski's UBS conference remarks directly, characterizing the disclosures as intentional hints from a company that has historically been conservative about discussing future opportunities until they're closer to reality.

Anpanman says he expects to host another Space (podcast episode) that night or the following day given the pace of incoming news.

By comparison, SpaceX/Starlink's purchase of EchoStar's AWS-4 (and AWS-3) spectrum is, in Anpanman's understanding, going through an entirely new FCC processing round, which he believes isn't expected to close until around fall 2027 — a much longer timeline than AST's modification path.

There is building speculation that FM-2/BB-7 could go up on a Falcon 9, or alternatively on Blue Origin's next New Glenn flight (its third launch) if that rocket's currently planned payload (believed to be a lunar lander) isn't ready in time — similar to a prior case where a ULA rocket launched without its intended payload to meet a government deadline. Anpanman personally hopes for the New Glenn scenario.

The company is overbooked on launch capacity: while targeting 45-60 satellites launched next year (2026), Anpanman believes AST has contracted capacity for something north of 75 satellites, giving flexibility if a particular launch vehicle isn't ready — likely with the excess capacity concentrated on Falcon 9 given the majority of contracted capacity sits with Blue Origin.

Hitting the 6-satellite/month production rate by end of 2025 is necessary to support five orbital launches by the end of Q1 2026, and is also needed to fill larger launch vehicles like New Glenn (minimum of 6 satellites per launch).

Anpanman notes a dynamic where earlier, most committed customers may have gotten 50/50 deals, while newer/fence-sitting partners paying less upfront economics might get a smaller split (e.g., 40% or 30%), and that partners are increasingly willing to pay upfront premiums to be first in their country.

Anpanman expects AST to sign some type of FirstNet contract during 2026 as the service rolls out, even if initially intermittent, and separately expects a contract tied to Verizon's Frontline network based on recent FCC filings.

Based on his own research (not something Scott stated), Anpanman speculates that Golden Dome-related news or program timing is likely to emerge around January-February 2026.

Anpanman notes battlefield communications require redundancy (government networks, Starlink, AST, etc.) in case an adversary disables one pathway via hacking or electronic warfare, and speculates AST's large phased arrays could also support offensive electronic-warfare capabilities, not just defensive/communications roles.

EchoStar is expected to seek renewal of its EU spectrum lease around May 2027; Anpanman speculates that, given Elon Musk's public friction with the EU, the EU may view EchoStar as a proxy for SpaceX (since EchoStar leases its North American spectrum to SpaceX) and could be reluctant to grant it a large allocation — Anpanman guesses EchoStar might get only a marginal allocation (e.g., 2.5x2.5 MHz or 5x5 MHz) or none, which would increase the odds of an MSS spectrum allocation for the Vodafone-AST SatCo JV.

Anpanman argues sovereignty is a key issue for the EU: the SatCo JV structure gives Europe voting control and keeps constellation operations and data landing within Europe when the satellites are over European territory, whereas Starlink's architecture operates as a separate network that routes data back through Starlink before reaching the partner, which he believes is less compatible with European sovereignty priorities.

Anpanman's own view is that, given the above funding sources, the company is unlikely to need to lean heavily on additional equity funding going forward, though it could opportunistically do another convertible note or equity raise.

Anpanman speculates a dedicated government constellation could be used to avoid piggybacking on commercial capacity and to support specialized applications like electronic warfare, jamming, or spoofing; he notes there are 9 total defense contracts to date and speculates (his own assumption, not confirmed) that FM1 and FM2 are part of the HALO program, potentially foreshadowing a specialized constellation akin to SpaceX's Starshield, which he has previously informally referred to as possible 'Blackbirds.'

Scott closed by highlighting 'add-on opportunities' from AST's satellite architecture (high power, low cost, large arrays) that could support other strategic government applications beyond communications; Anpanman speculates the company has been in talks with Microsoft and other large players, alongside its existing Google strategic investment/commercial relationship, though this is his own speculation.

Starting the prior day and peaking that morning, Elon Musk has been attacking the EU on social media, retweeting content likening the EU to Nazi Germany and talking about abolishing the EU, reportedly triggered by an EU fine against him; Anpanman calls this a bullish development for AST SpaceMobile and 'basically any other space player that is not named SpaceX.'

AST SpaceMobile's SatCo joint venture with Vodafone (formed earlier in 2025) is structured so European entities, primarily Vodafone, hold majority ownership and control; Anpanman guesses AST ends up around a 49% economic owner but a voting-control minority, making the entity European-controlled. Once the constellation is over Europe, SatCo will have sovereign 'kill switch' control to beam down or cut off service.

Anpanman compares the Musk-EU flare-up to the earlier Trump-Musk falling out, noting AST SpaceMobile and Rocket Lab rallied significantly when the Trump/Musk relationship broke down, and argues the current EU rhetoric similarly can't be walked back ('the genie's now out of the bottle').

Anpanman expects a lot of EU regulatory activity in 2026 on allocating MSS spectrum over Europe, with EchoStar's renewal coming up — he is unsure whether it's 15x15 MHz or 10x10 MHz — after an unused concession he believes has run about 18 years.

Anpanman explains the SpaceX-EchoStar transaction is only for US spectrum (AWS-4, AWS-3, and part of the H-block) — SpaceX paid about $19 billion for the first slug and another roughly $2-3 billion for AWS-3 — not global spectrum, meaning SpaceX still has to compete country by country for direct-to-device spectrum, calling it 'a jump ball situation... a race.'

Anpanman answers that existing Ka-band authorizations could ease things somewhat in countries where SpaceX already operates that service, but for MSS spectrum specifically — especially in Europe — he thinks the EchoStar/SpaceX tie-up has likely 'decimated' EchoStar's chance at renewal given the political blowback.

Anpanman notes the EchoStar-SpaceX European spectrum renewal is due in May 2027, while the EchoStar-SpaceX transaction itself doesn't close until around November 2027 (structured as a two-step deal, with US spectrum going into a trust first) because EchoStar must get regulatory approval to move the spectrum from terrestrial to satellite use and from GEO to LEO use — a long process.

Anpanman argues the SpaceX-EchoStar deal is effectively 'an option' for SpaceX to see if EchoStar can get European regulatory approval, and if the EU spectrum reallocation goes against EchoStar before the deal closes, SpaceX (via Charlie Ergen) could push to renegotiate or cut the price — drawing a parallel to how Musk initially tried to walk away from or reprice the Twitter acquisition before ultimately closing it.

Anpanman adds that Viasat, the other major MSS spectrum holder in Europe (used to provide airline connectivity), is also losing that business to Starlink, potentially undermining Viasat's case to keep its own allocation.

Anpanman expects the EU to allocate its MSS spectrum to probably 2-3 players, with the EU's own Iris² sovereign constellation almost certain to get a decent allocation; he thinks AST makes a compelling case for another slot and would be surprised if EchoStar gets a large allocation, though possibly some conditioned allocation with build-out/use-it-or-lose-it requirements or a veto right if EchoStar tried to lease or sell the spectrum.

Anpanman draws a parallel to September 2022, when Elon Musk announced SpaceX would also pursue direct-to-cell after others had already moved into that space — arguing Musk's public comments about AI data centers in space (timed around SpaceX's tender at an $800 billion valuation) validate rather than diminish the idea, even as it boosts attention on smaller players like StarCloud.

Anpanman argues rising terrestrial electricity costs and limited Earth resources (power, cooling water) make the AI data center buildout on Earth increasingly unsustainable, supporting a longer-term case for orbital compute for certain applications, even if a bubble pullback in AI spending happens along the way.

Anpanman ties the concept to Golden Dome: AI processing for a missile-defense system would need to be fully independent of Earth-based data centers and infrastructure, since an adversary in a conflict could target ground data centers or population/infrastructure centers, requiring resilient, autonomous, self-sufficient space-based compute with its own onboard storage.

Anpanman is skeptical of StarCloud's proposed roughly 5-gigawatt scale as being 'further out,' and raises concern about large single orbital structures being vulnerable to debris/meteor strikes (Kessler syndrome risk), favoring a distributed-satellite approach instead.

Anpanman proposes a 'DataBird' concept: take a BlueBird satellite, remove the antenna elements and communications-focused ASICs/FPGAs, and replace them with GPUs or TPUs; a Block 2 BlueBird already has 100-120 kilowatts of power, matching the power level Elon Musk said an AI-data-center satellite would need, and such a satellite could fly in a sun-synchronous orbit rather than AST's standard inclination.

Anpanman confirms Block 1 BlueBirds do have optical inter-satellite links (required testing for certain defense awards), and guesses FM-1 and FM-2 (Block 2) have them too, with his expectation that all future BlueBirds will carry them going forward.

Anpanman notes a repurposed BlueBird 'DataBird' could keep the existing Q/V-band feeder links for high-throughput downlink to Earth, avoiding the spectrum-licensing hurdles the StarCloud CEO said his company wants to avoid by not communicating directly with Earth.

As a cautionary counterpoint, Jacob suggests that in the near term, rather than building a dedicated third class of 'data center' satellite, companies could simply distribute GPUs/TPUs directly onto satellites already being launched for other purposes (e.g., the new Planet Labs satellite reportedly carrying Google's TPUs) to process data where it's collected.

Using a quick, informal query to Gemini, Anpanman estimates a 120-kilowatt satellite could theoretically run about 72 Nvidia Blackwell GB200 GPUs, or about 88 Hopper-generation GPUs — noting this was very quick research, not verified analysis.

Anpanman notes Rocket Lab acquired a solar company making gallium arsenide thin-film solar cells with efficiency he estimates around 30-45% or higher, historically used in deep-space missions such as the Mars Ingenuity helicopter and the Parker Solar Probe, though he expects the technology's cost to come down over time.

Jacob argues Rocket Lab's total-cost-of-ownership advantage comes from full vertical integration for a distributed data-center architecture: it already builds satellite buses, reaction wheels, and star trackers in-house, GPUs would be the payload, and once the pending Mynaric acquisition closes it will also have in-house optical inter-satellite links, plus internalized launch — leaving GPUs and launch integration as the main remaining pieces.

Jacob identifies AST's patented approach of dissipating heat locally at each Micron module (rather than routing a liquid cooling loop through a rack of GPUs) as an area where Rocket Lab may need acquisitions or internal R&D to match AST's advantage.

Jacob says this potential new application finally gives Rocket Lab bulls, who have spent years speculating about the company's eventual 'killer application' (e.g., on-orbit manufacturing, asteroid mining), something concrete that lines up with the vertical integration Rocket Lab has already built, tentatively fitting a 2028-plus timeline for the application layer that he attributes to 'Peter.'

Jacob argues the first realistic use case is processing Earth-observation data on-orbit — for example, Planet Labs currently loses or discards imagery collected over the oceans because RF downlink bandwidth isn't sufficient — using optical inter-satellite links to move data around the constellation, process it on-orbit, and only downlink the processed results.

Anpanman agrees the near-term opportunity is data-intensive applications like Earth observation and Golden Dome-style defense processing, but says wholesale replacement of terrestrial data centers by orbital ones is 'quite a few years away.'

Jacob lays out gating factors for orbital data centers becoming more useful over time: falling launch costs, rising terrestrial power costs, and potentially a speed advantage — skipping Earth-side permitting, land acquisition, and grid interconnection could make launching an orbital data center faster than building one on Earth by around 2030.

Anpanman compares the potential narrative shift for AST SpaceMobile/space companies to Nvidia's transformation from a gaming graphics-card company into an AI infrastructure company, and to small modular nuclear reactor stocks (e.g., Oclo, NuScale/'SMR') that re-rated once AI power-demand narratives took hold; he cites a Morgan Stanley report he recalls estimating a power deficit in the range of roughly 20-40 gigawatts (uncertain on the exact figures) in coming years.

Anpanman argues AST's flight heritage and ability to manufacture and launch a 5,000-6,000 kilogram satellite with a large unfolding solar/antenna array that fits a standard rocket fairing is a meaningful advantage for building future data-center-class satellites, versus newer entrants like StarCloud who are earlier in that learning curve (comparing StarCloud today to where AST was in 2020-2021).

AST has flexibility to pivot between launch providers and plans to launch more tonnage to space over the next couple of years than almost anyone on the planet, with the exception of two or three players.

Every operator globally wants to discuss partnership with AST; the constraint on signing more definitive agreements has largely been AST's own bandwidth, prioritizing partners with equity investment, minimum commitments, spectrum alignment, and prepayments — AST expects a lot more definitive agreements in 2026, aided by scaling its team and the Vodafone European joint venture.

Only one LEO constellation in history has reached the finish line without going bankrupt first; Wisniewski said AST believes it has gotten past the initial capital-timeline and technical-difficulty hurdles, positioning it to capture add-on opportunities with strong marginal economics once the baseline low-band service is deployed.

Owning this spectrum is intended to secure AST's competitive position for decades as its current technology advantage matures and the industry becomes more crowded, on top of its baseline cellular-spectrum-sharing model with operators.

AST is standing up a new market potentially worth tens of billions of dollars by connecting the roughly 6 billion phones globally that lack good or affordable cellular coverage.

Wisniewski framed AST's broadband technology as fundamentally different from competitors' voice or text-only offerings ('apples to aircraft carriers'), noting AST could have started with text three years ago but chose to build broadband from the outset as the 'killer app' for direct-to-device.

The September EchoStar-Starlink spectrum transaction closely mirrored AST's own January transaction — Wisniewski described the two big globally available MSS bands as 'L' and (per the transcript) 'F,' with AST having moved on the L-band and EchoStar/Starlink on the other band [note: this second band name is unclear/possibly a transcription garble in the original audio].

Wisniewski said the EchoStar-Starlink deal validated the value of AST's own spectrum asset, signaled that the direct-to-device market is expected to be large (given the price paid for the spectrum), and aligned AST more closely with its operator partners.

Wisniewski believes AST has largely made its major capital-structure moves already, with remaining activity being 'tidying up' rather than new large raises, while remaining reactive and efficient as opportunities arise.

AST is building out a low-band constellation now, but sees other relevant frequencies and potential dedicated government constellations as future expansion vectors; once these 'shells' are built, Wisniewski expects AST to hold an attractive position as an operator of multiple valuable orbital shells with significant add-on opportunities, drawing a loose comparison to recent market enthusiasm ('the last week or so') around data-center/power-in-orbit concepts, covering both communications and non-communications government use cases and next-generation commercialization of space.

FM-1 is coming soon and should launch around next Monday, though time zones mean it could effectively be Sunday; Kook plans to try to gather the community for a launch Spaces and possibly livestream a DD-doc walkthrough on YouTube while waiting.

FM-1 and FM-2 are, in Kook's view, near-'sacrificial' test birds — they don't use the composite material planned for the first batch of core commercial satellites, and Kook believes they are the two SDA test satellites under AST's HALO contract, used to work out the production 'bus'/control set and debottleneck manufacturing ahead of the company's target of 6 (with a stated ability to double to 12) satellites per month.

Kook compares the apparent late-stage modifications to FM-1/FM-2 to the U.S. Navy's history of customizing supposedly-standard warship designs (citing Fincantieri-derived stealth destroyers built in Wisconsin), speculating that fast-changing Golden Dome specifications are driving similar 'death by a thousand cuts' tweaks to the two SDA test satellites.

Kook links some of the satellite changes to timing around the Ligado spectrum transaction, speculating the modifications relate to calibration for using new mid-band spectrum, though he says 'we can only guess why.'

Kook describes the current dynamic as 'constellation constipation' — the company hasn't yet been producing satellites at a fast enough rate to launch on a steady cadence, but expects that within a couple of months, launches will become routine ('ship and shoot, ship and shoot') once inventory builds up.

Kook speculates that stock weakness in November was 'peculiar' but that the market is now starting to react ahead of confirmed launch news, suggesting insiders/consultants visiting the Midland facility may already have visibility into the status of roughly 6 additional completed satellites.

Kook notes Elon Musk commented this week that he's 'not an investor, but I think Google is going to be worth a lot,' which Kook connects to speculation that AST and Google may already be collaborating on space-based AI infrastructure.

A user named 'Tanner' calculated that if AT&T, Verizon, and Vodafone's combined 630 million subscribers had a 50% attach rate at $1/month, that alone would generate about $3.8 billion/year — which Kook ties to Scott Wisniewski's public statement that AST is building the company for 'tens of billions of dollars of revenue opportunity.'

Kook dismisses short-seller 'Dr. Silver Schnaufer's' argument that AST's current low revenue and hype-driven investor base undermine the thesis, arguing shorts underweight how many times larger the realistic TAM is versus the traditional 'satellite phone for hikers' framing.

Kook estimates, citing FCC studies on existing narrowband MSS businesses, that there is easily a billion dollars of revenue in traditional high-friction satellite phone services in the U.S. alone, and argues that even worst-case AST TAM scenarios reach into the billions, with his realistic case in the tens of billions or more.

Kook argues AST is unique among D2D players for consistently having extensive third-party validation of its technology claims, contrasting this with SpaceX and Lynk Global, which he says have shown edited or ambiguous demonstrations without independent verification (drawing a Nikola/GM comparison for the latter).

Kook is skeptical of SpaceX's roughly $800 billion market valuation, arguing SpaceX faces looming competition from Blue Origin and other launch vehicles that should push launch costs down, that Starship has not yet demonstrated working orbital capability despite Musk's claimed milestones, and that Kuiper (backed by Amazon's distribution advantage) is a real threat to Starlink.

Kook frames the market's renewed excitement about space in terms of 'what's driving weight into orbit' — currently telecom services, next government/defense applications tied to Golden Dome, and further out, speculative AI data centers in space.

Kook discusses the StarCloud CEO's public math on AI data centers in space, noting it relies entirely on Starship working, and argues the real critical-path constraint is power generation — an area Kook believes AST is uniquely positioned in given its RF business is fundamentally about generating large amounts of electricity in orbit.

Kook floats an unconfirmed belief that AST's satellites can generate roughly 120 kilowatts of power, and speculates it's a logical extension for AST to eventually put GPUs where the antenna currently is, though he stresses he doesn't know how the economics of a space-based megawatt compare to a ground-based one.

Kook frames AST as fundamentally a 'platform of space-based power generation,' with RF/telecom as the current way to monetize that power (analogous to exporting cheap Icelandic electricity as aluminum), and speculates AI data centers could become a future export mechanism.

Kook notes AST avoids publicly discussing non-RF projects except via unofficial 'forbidden videos,' believing the company deliberately keeps its public communications simple and consistent as a young, pre-revenue company trying not to look like it's pivoting, recalling the market's negative reaction when AST 'pivoted' to acquire Ligado spectrum.

Kook raises an open design question for a potential AST-based AI data center satellite: it would likely need both constant sun exposure and a ground-station view for data transfer (to avoid data sovereignty issues), which may be in tension.

Kook's understanding is AST was waiting for the SCS comment period to close before filing its Ligado spectrum FCC application, which he expects could come as soon as Monday or Tuesday following the December 5 close, potentially drawing renewed market attention to AST's 45 MHz of Ligado L-band spectrum.

Kook describes Golden Dome contract batches as escalating in complexity: the first batch already awarded covered commodity-type stuff and services, while the second batch includes much more complex systems such as spacecraft and systems-integration contractors; he believes AST is competing for multiple parts of the broader project, some far bigger than others, which could make the process longer before visibility improves.

Citing a Space News article, Kook notes the Missile Defense Agency (MDA) said it must complete discussions with vendors before soliciting firm requirements, and that risk is being shifted so contractors fund initial testing themselves before being paid — which Kook believes explains why AST raised its $1.15 billion convertible bond package, positioning it to self-fund pursuit of the largest Golden Dome programs.

Kook references analysis by Kevin Colton comparing SpaceX's satellite deorbit/pollution profile to AST's, arguing AST's approach of fewer, larger satellites flown at a higher orbit (~700km vs. SpaceX's ~300km) has a nonlinearly lower decay rate, easier fleet management, less maintenance capex, and likely higher free cash flow, versus what Kook calls Musk having 'spammed the orbits' with Starlink.

SpaceX filed a trademark for 'Starlink Mobile'; Kook interprets this as Musk needing to show a large D2D TAM story to support SpaceX's valuation, but argues SpaceX faces a real commercial barrier because it lacks a way to access MNO customers cheaply — AST's wholesale MNO model is not something SpaceX can easily replicate without vertically integrating into its own telecom business, which would be expensive and slow.

Kook discusses Elon Musk's public clash with the European Union over the weekend (criticizing EU bureaucracy), noting this aligns Musk with the Trump administration's posture toward the EU (unlike his earlier falling-out with Trump over the 'big beautiful bill'), and predicts EU officials will react negatively to Musk's comments.

Kook draws a direct parallel to May/June 2025, when he believes the market recognized that Musk alienating Trump — the one person who could slow him down — materially benefited AST's government/national-security positioning; he suggests a similar dynamic ('round 2') could now play out with the EU, benefiting AST/Vodafone's Germany-based SatCo joint venture as an alternative to SpaceX for European sovereign/defense needs.

Kook describes AST as effectively a 'sum of the parts' investment alongside Blue Origin, arguing the two have a mutually beneficial relationship — Blue Origin needs payload weight to justify its rocket, and AST has substantial satellite weight to launch — and says he's closely tracking the upcoming New Glenn 3 launch as a proof point for Blue Origin's cadence.

Anpanman speculates SpaceX is deliberately staging a steady cadence of ever-increasing tender valuations (from $400B to $560-800B) to build momentum toward an IPO, guessing SpaceX could eventually target an IPO valuation north of a trillion dollars, likely priced at a discount (he guesses around 10%) to produce a first-day pop before an eventual lock-up-expiry wave of insider selling.

Citing research analyst breakdowns he recalls (flagged as from memory, not exact), he believes a large majority of Starlink's future growth will come from direct-to-cell rather than fixed wireless, guessing direct-to-cell could account for roughly two-thirds of Starlink's subscriber growth and, potentially, profitability contribution 'in the out years.'

SpaceX's exclusivity agreement with T-Mobile for Direct-to-Cell is set to end in 2026, after which T-Mobile could pursue other options or SpaceX could try to pursue AT&T or Verizon, though Anpanman notes 'we know how that story ends' given AT&T/Verizon's existing AST agreements.

Responding to a listener question about whether SpaceX going public could pull capital away from names like Rocket Lab or AST SpaceMobile, Anpanman argues the opposite is more likely: increased sector attention should bring more total investment dollars into the space sector rather than just reallocating existing dollars.

He predicts a SpaceX IPO will trigger a 'mad scramble' among growth investors, generalists, tech investors, and aerospace/defense analysts to get up to speed on the sector, eventually leading to dedicated space-sector specialist investing groups, ETFs, and sector-focused mutual funds.

Going public would give the market full financial transparency into SpaceX's launch and Starlink businesses — a contrast to today's opaque access via special purpose vehicles (SPVs), which typically charge 1-2% management fees plus 15-20% carried interest and provide only high-level information, not full financials; Anpanman recalls reviewing a Goldman Sachs SpaceX share offering document that contained essentially no financial disclosures.

As a public company, SpaceX would face new scrutiny and stock-price volatility it hasn't experienced as a private company — for example, public investors would likely react visibly to events like the recent Starship static-fire explosion on the pad, unlike private valuations that only move at infrequent transaction points.

Post-IPO, sell-side analysts covering SpaceX will likely ask about its win rate against AST SpaceMobile for MNO partnerships and why SpaceX hasn't secured more MNOs, with dozens of research analysts across Wall Street expected to initiate coverage and discuss the competitive landscape, making AST and other names 'household names' by extension.

If SpaceX trades at a rich valuation multiple relative to its growth once public, investors may extrapolate that AST SpaceMobile and Rocket Lab look comparatively cheap and buy those names alongside SpaceX; conversely, some market-neutral funds may go long SpaceX privately and short AST/Rocket Lab and other space names as a hedge, a dynamic Anpanman believes may already be contributing to current short interest in these stocks.

Attention will likely next turn to whether Blue Origin might go public, but Anpanman notes there's no real valuation benchmark for it since it's essentially fully funded by Jeff Bezos, and he's unsure whether Blue Origin has taken any outside investment or sold any shares beyond employee stock grants.

Using a rough valuation split, Anpanman estimates that if SpaceX's current financial contribution (revenue/operating income) is about 65-70% Starlink, then 65% of an $800 billion valuation would imply roughly a $520 billion valuation for Starlink alone, with the remainder attributable to the launch business.

He argues SpaceX should arguably trade at a premium valuation multiple as the dominant, at-scale industry leader, but that smaller companies like AST SpaceMobile and Rocket Lab may have more room for rapid multiple-driven growth (potentially '10x') than an already-$800 billion SpaceX.

Anpanman says he expects Golden Dome contract awards as a near-term catalyst, guessing the major awards will likely come in the next few weeks, up to around the end of January 2026.

Anpanman describes himself as 'about as bullish as can be' on AST SpaceMobile given the stack of catalysts heading into 2026, and notes he needs to update his personal catalyst tracker because a number of catalysts have already occurred.

Anpanman says he is 'going down the rabbit hole' of AI data centers in space and, while still learning the topic, increasingly believes AST SpaceMobile is well positioned to win some of this business going forward.

He flags his own concern that AST should not lose focus on its core target markets — delivering broadband connectivity to devices commercially and for defense — while pursuing any data-center opportunity.

He describes two ways AST could monetize this without losing focus: (1) licensing its large patent portfolio to other companies for royalty income, which he notes carries ~100% margin; and (2) once AST hits a 10-12 satellite/month production cadence and has its low-band and mid-band Bluebird constellations up (his guess: maybe around 2028), directing the resulting built-in satellite capacity toward new customers beyond its core buildout.

He explains that the biggest technical obstacle for space-based data centers is heat dissipation, and argues AST's large phased-array satellites already solve this: solar arrays on one side, antenna elements on the other, with embedded processors (currently FPGAs, moving to AST's own ASICs) generating heat that the large array structure dissipates like a radiator; he references a 2021 AST patent covering this architecture.

He lays out a hypothetical redesign: remove the phased-array antenna elements (saving weight), replace the onboard processors with GPUs/TPUs/ASICs for AI workloads, and upgrade the inter-processor interconnects (he draws on his prior career as a hardware investment banker and references Mellanox/InfiniBand), while keeping the QV-band feeder links to send processed data directly back to Earth-based gateways — jokingly proposing the name 'Data Birds' for such satellites.

He contrasts this with competitor StarCloud, which he says packs processors into a dense box requiring separate cooling and uses very large 'football field'-sized solar arrays for power, then relays data via optical inter-satellite links through Starlink or Kuiper fixed-wireless rather than communicating directly with Earth — partly to avoid the cost and FCC regulatory burden of obtaining its own feeder-link (Ka-band/QV-band) spectrum and gateways.

He also raises debris/Kessler-syndrome considerations: StarCloud reportedly wants to operate well above LEO to avoid congestion, which requires more mass and much higher launch cost than LEO, whereas AST's architecture is already sized for standard fairings and LEO launch economics.

On data storage, he initially assumed a 'Data Bird' would need hardened NAND flash or hard drives, but reconsidered that it could work purely as edge computing with no onboard storage if all data is relayed straight back to Earth — except possibly for defense/Golden Dome/SDA use cases (a point he attributes to 'Katzi'/Katsy) where onboard AI processing and some storage might be needed.

He recalls a conversation with a Hennessy Fund portfolio manager (a long-time institutional AST shareholder) around the time of the Block 1 Bluebird launch, who suggested AST's massive in-space power-generation capacity could support applications well beyond communications, including previously undisclosed non-communications government work (guessed to include electronic warfare, PNT/GPS backup, and radar).

He argues AST does not need to operate a data-center business itself — it could license the technology or build satellites for other companies, with those satellites effectively owned and operated by customers like Google, Microsoft, Amazon, or SpaceX (which he expects to vertically integrate this for its own AI workloads, e.g. Grok, and defense customers).

He suggests that, if he ran AST, he would dedicate a 'skunkworks' team to this opportunity now, and guesses the company may have already had informal discussions with Microsoft and Google (an existing AST investor) about it — explicitly framed as his own guess.

He notes AST SpaceMobile itself faced similar skepticism three to four years ago before Starlink helped normalize the direct-to-device satellite concept for the public, and compares the potential AI data-center pivot to how NVIDIA's processors, originally built for gaming, became essential for AI workloads.

He predicts AST's 'phone is going to start ringing off the hook' in the coming months as hyperscale/AI infrastructure companies (he names IREN, CoreWeave, and NBIS as examples) look for space-capable partners, and notes AST's existing MNO partners (e.g. AT&T, Verizon) already operate their own terrestrial data centers for enterprise customers, a potential additional synergy.

He flags a personal concern that any space-based data-center buildout must be handled in an environmentally sound way at end-of-life, suggesting reusable second-stage recovery of components rather than allowing everything to burn up on deorbit, which he says introduces its own environmental problem.

He expects AST management will avoid publicizing this data-center opportunity heavily until the company has a steady production cadence for its core two constellations, but predicts sell-side analysts and retail investors will increasingly ask management about this new market opportunity over time.

He argues few companies besides AST can currently build large (2-3 ton class) satellites with high power generation and heat-dissipation capacity, contrasting this with the comparatively small satellites used by Starlink and Kuiper, and names AST and Rocket Lab as likely beneficiaries of this emerging theme; he says the market and sell-side analysts are not yet pricing this in.

He notes T1's CEO recently met with J.D. Vance, positioning the company as a vertically integrated, American-owned solar champion amid a broader view that all energy sources (renewable, fossil, nuclear) will be needed to meet AI-driven power demand.

Per Street estimates cited by Anpanman, T1 Energy is expected to generate about $814 million of revenue and $27 million of EBITDA in fiscal year 2025 (up from roughly zero revenue in 2024), growing to almost $2 billion of revenue and $425 million of EBITDA by 2028; the company will need to raise a significant amount of capital to finish ramping the Dallas facility and build out Austin.

He compares T1's capital-raising and credibility-building phase to AST SpaceMobile circa 2023-2024, though he notes T1 already has real revenue and EBITDA today, unlike AST at that stage.

Anpanman argues this is not related to T1's financial statements or operations (unlike a subpoena tied to revenue recognition or sales practices, which he says would be far more serious) and, after reviewing management and board start dates (CEO Daniel Borsello joined November 2024, CFO June 2024, CTO January 2024, COO August 2025, and all board members reviewed), concludes no current executive is implicated in the 2023 trading at issue, and that there is limited 'key man' risk to the company.

Reviewing the board, he flags Jessica Strine (joined November 2023, likely too new to have a material personal loan against stock), Dr. Daniel Steingart (joined the board January 2023), and Peter Vetry (joined the board July 2021 and formerly served as Freyr's CEO, leaving that role in July 2021) as the only plausible candidates by tenure, but says none appears to be a clear match and speculates the person under investigation is likely a former executive no longer with the company.

He estimates Bridger's market cap at about $100 million against roughly $600 million of debt and $50 million of cash, implying an enterprise value of about $650 million.

He cites legislative tailwinds following the LA-area wildfires, with increased federal and state funding being directed toward firefighting air assets.

He notes Bridger has essentially no institutional sponsorship and only one covering research analyst, calling it a 'tweener' situation similar to T1 Energy, but says the stock is executing with growing revenue.

He cites projected revenue of about $121 million in 2025 (up from $98 million in 2024) and $133 million in 2026, with EBITDA of $37 million this year growing to $49 million in 2026.

He personally owns Bridger warrants with an $11.50 strike expiring January 25, 2028; implied volatility was around 88% on the day he was speaking versus a roughly 65% recent 60-day historic volatility (trending up from lower levels, with historic vol in prior years ranging into the 80s-100s), and frames the position as a highly levered call option since the equity ($100M) is a small fraction of enterprise value ($650M).

He describes Keystone Perfusion as profitable and growing about 50% year over year, acquired at what he considers a reasonable valuation multiple.

He likens Strata's situation to T1 Energy — an 'orphan' stock where prior eVTOL-focused research analysts have dropped coverage and the old shareholder base is gradually turning over as the new medical-logistics story takes hold, creating a valuation opportunity for retail investors willing to do the work.

He has periodically floated hosting AST's Scott Wisniewski over the years, but says Scott has always been a bit noncommittal, having said only that 'at the right time' he would consider it; Anpanman speculates the right time might be after AST has two, three, or four more launches under its belt.

He notes that day's economic data — core PCE index in line with expectations, consumer confidence up, and inflation short- and long-term expectations down — supports a solid environment for risk assets, alongside a new Fed chair (Bessent) he sees as aligned with the Trump administration on cutting rates as long as inflation stays subdued.

He argues that, combined with AST's upcoming hard catalysts, December year-end is shaping up to be a positive stretch, and reminds listeners to watch for tax-loss-harvesting bargains in illiquid names into year end followed by a typical 'January effect' rebound as new-year capital deployment resumes.

The market recently went through a drawdown driven by Fed officials questioning a December rate cut, a government shutdown creating a lack of economic data, concerns about AI valuations, and rising Japanese rates; high-beta names corrected 30-50%, which he thinks was a needed reset for the rally to continue.

Scott Bessent, seen as the likely next Fed chair, said today that he sees growth next year and inflation coming down, which Anpanman reads as Bessent giving himself room to cut rates further; weak private-employer jobs data and ISM prices coming in at their lowest level since roughly 2022-2023 add to the case for a December rate cut and a more dovish Fed under a new chair as Powell becomes a lame duck.

With an accommodative macro backdrop combining with AST-specific catalysts, he expects the next 2 to 3 months to be pretty solid for the stock, and a year-end rally overall, though he flags that surprises (like a hot inflation print) could still change things.

The more he researches, the more it seems both BB-6 and BB-7 are government-oriented satellites likely tied to the HALO program; he believes the reason those two satellites have taken so long is that the government is the ultimate customer and customer requirements for them have kept evolving, which he sees as a positive sign of program importance rather than a technical failure (explicitly his own speculation).

There's speculation that news could come before Scott Wisniewski's investor-conference presentation next Monday, though he cautions that's classic 'SpaceMob' behavior of setting expectations up for disappointment.

A recent company tweet showing the three launch vehicles and promising an update soon struck him as 'pretty damn bullish,' and he expects an update this or next week on when BB-7 will ship and launch; he personally hopes for a December BB-7 launch but thinks that's unlikely given integration timelines, and is instead looking forward to a January launch, with two more batches (either two groups of 3, or 6 on one New Glenn) potentially following in February.

Blue Origin appears to be making significant production progress; after landing a second New Glenn booster (having failed to land the booster on the first launch in January), he thinks the market will be surprised by 2026 cadence — recalling that David Limp had guided to something like 6-8 (he thinks closer to 10 than 5, though he's not certain of the exact figure) New Glenn launches for 2025 before the January booster-landing failure derailed those plans.

It's unclear whether BB-7 will ride as a rideshare on a SpaceX Falcon 9 or end up on a New Glenn alongside a few other Block 2 BlueBirds; some of Blue Origin's 2026 launch capacity will go to Kuiper and the US government, but launch capacity can free up if other customers (like a moon-lander mission) aren't ready, similar to how ULA once launched with its own test satellite when a customer wasn't ready.

The run to $100 was partly fueled by a broad market push into high-beta names (similar to modular nuclear stocks riding the AI power-demand narrative), and the subsequent de-risking that erased some of those gains (including his own speculative calls) was a macro effect, not a company failure; he doesn't fault management for not communicating more, framing Avellan as focused purely on execution.

Negative sentiment spikes (including on the SpaceMobile Reddit and from vocal short sellers like 'Dr. Schloss' and the 'Pivotal Capital' short) have historically been strong bottoming/contrarian indicators in his experience.

He views AST's culture as matching Blue Origin's 'do it right the first time' philosophy rather than SpaceX's iterate-through-failure approach (contrasting with Starship, which Elon Musk originally said would land people on Mars by 2022 but by 2026 is still working toward commercial viability); AST can't afford unfolding failures once a satellite is in space.

He believes there are 2 Golden Dome-related programs that AST SpaceMobile is well positioned to win; he doesn't expect news in the next few weeks but thinks rumors could start circulating soon, with actual awards likely in January or February.

He frames government contract awards (currently around 9) as set to continue expanding, with the 2 Golden Dome-related opportunities potentially adding to that count.

Vodafone, AT&T, Verizon, Saudi Telecom (stc), and Rakuten are all commercial partners talking about rolling out commercial service in 2026.

Mexico's Altan, a government-owned MNO, is trying to use unused 700 MHz spectrum to provide 100% connectivity across Mexico, which he thinks could be massive given spotty terrestrial coverage and a large unconnected population; he recalls discussing this idea with Scott Wisniewski as far back as 2023.

He expects more definitive commercial agreements in the coming months; Bell Canada's deal already sounds effectively signed based on their earnings call commentary (pending certain conditions), and he speculates Etisalat (Abu Dhabi) could be another future partner.

The FCC comment period on AT&T's SES application for US market access closes December 5th; SpaceX and T-Mobile have filed objections trying to slow the process, but he believes they're 'pounding sand' at this point.

Once the comment period closes, the approval clock starts; assuming no issues (accounting for some holiday delay) and given that FCC Chairman Carr wants to move quickly, he expects approval could come by the end of January or in February.

Full FCC approval would be a huge catalyst because it would grant authority to operate an entire constellation (potentially the full 248 satellites applied for) without needing to keep going back for STAs to do testing or launch — something he calls the 'all clear' signal the community has been waiting for since 2021-2022.

He expects the government opportunity to be the biggest revenue driver initially and in the short term, with commercial revenue overtaking it in perhaps 2 to 3 years, given the dual-use nature of the technology.

FirstNet users on the government side and, per recent FCC filings he references, Verizon's frontline service are both expected to be use cases for the satellite service.

With the stock around $50 and a roughly $20 billion market cap, and Ligado spectrum alone estimated to be worth $12-15 billion plus about $3 billion of cash on the balance sheet (against which the company also carries convertible debt), he argues investors are effectively getting the commercial and government business for around $5 billion.

He believes AST will become the largest wireless operator in the world by subscribers, serving billions of customers potentially, albeit as a wholesaler without direct end-customer relationships.

He notes the public narrative has shifted: people used to doubt the technology could even connect to a regular phone, but now they take satellite-to-phone connectivity for granted (often assuming, incorrectly in his view, that Starlink's direct-to-cell will work as well indoors/through walls as AST's system).

Responding to skepticism (citing commentator 'Dan TMT,' an EchoStar bull) about whether people will actually pay for the service, he argues via a Wi-Fi analogy: people use their phones on Wi-Fi roughly 85-90% of the time and pay a premium (he cites paying Verizon over $100) for connectivity the remaining 5-15% of the time when away from Wi-Fi, so paying $5-10/month for satellite coverage in dead zones is a reasonable ask.

He cites having about 12 Apple AirTags at home as an example of the asset-tracking use case, extending the logic to corporate asset tracking, farm equipment/hydration monitoring, drones, cars, and robots as future IoT connectivity opportunities.

Because not every satellite is used by every customer simultaneously, capacity can be sold many times over, which he argues makes this some of the highest-return infrastructure available, likening the model partly to selling insurance.

Asked how risky the first launch of the bigger Block 2 satellite is given no flight heritage, Anpanman says AST's engineers have gone '6 for 6' successfully unfolding satellites to date (the 5 Block 1 BlueBirds plus BlueWalker 3), and that the new, bigger Block 2 design actually has fewer folds and hinges than Block 1, making it simpler despite its larger size, though there will be more mechanical stress given the greater size.

Asked whether AST's model/assets could apply to AI data centers in LEO given that power and water are major terrestrial data-center cost drivers, Anpanman notes that on the last (Q3) earnings call the company discussed AI software to maximize satellite efficiency, and that AST has the ingredients for it — the largest solar arrays and phased arrays in LEO, plus onboard processors — theoretically allowing storage/compute hardware to be added, though he cuts the discussion short to leave for his son.

Anpanman argues AST SpaceMobile already has the key building blocks required to deploy data centers in space: a huge platform generating a large amount of power, the ability to support significant processing, the ability to dissipate heat, and a form factor that fits inside a normal rocket fairing.

He draws an analogy to Nvidia: just as Nvidia's graphics accelerators, originally built for gaming, were repurposed for AI computing, AST's satellite platform — originally built for direct-to-cell communications — could be repurposed for space-based data centers.

Anpanman estimates Bluebird satellites cost all-in, including launch, 'around what, $22, $23 million,' with a phased-array/solar structure roughly the size of a basketball court; he frames the cost figure as approximate.

He sketches a hypothetical redesign: take a Bluebird satellite, remove the phased array (not needed for a data center), keep the solar panels on one side, and replace the FPGAs/ASICs with a Google TPU or Nvidia processor; the satellite already carries batteries, and a storage solution (likely flash storage rather than mechanical hard drives) would need to be added, though he is unsure how much on-satellite storage would actually be needed versus storing data on Earth.

In his proposed architecture, processing would happen in space (edge computing) while most data storage stays on Earth, with communication to and from the satellite handled via the existing high-bandwidth Q/V-band feeder links or optical/laser links, rather than storing large amounts of data on the satellite itself.

Anpanman notes Google is piloting roughly two small data-center cubesats with Planet Labs (a company Google has a small investment in) to test the space environment for computing, and separately, Google is a strategic investor in AST SpaceMobile — a relationship he argues could make it a simple conversation to extend into a data-center collaboration with AST.

Anpanman states AST SpaceMobile's market capitalization is already well over $20 billion, up from being a relatively unknown company, and argues that as investors look for ways to invest in a 'data centers in space' theme, there will be very few companies with AST's proven flight heritage and production capability.

Recalling a conversation with a portfolio manager ('Hennessy') at institutional investors he met at the Block.one launch event, Anpanman says he was told AST could develop 5 or 6 business 'pillars' over time, including licensing IP for royalties and separately monetizing the large amount of power the constellation generates in space (leveraging the power plant aspect of the satellites, independent of communications).

Anpanman notes AST is already working with the Department of War (Defense) and the Space Development Agency (SDA), among others, and floats the possibility of future Golden Dome-related awards, reinforcing his view the company is well positioned across both commercial and government/defense applications, including non-communications uses like electronic warfare and radar.

Anpanman raises a competitive concern about SpaceX as a data-center partner: because SpaceX is vertically integrated and associated with Elon Musk and Twitter/Grok, some companies may be wary of partnering with a 'mercurial founder' who could turn on them, potentially making a neutral player like AST a more attractive merchant supplier or licensor of the underlying technology.

Anpanman compares the potential AST data-center narrative to how modular nuclear stocks like Oklo and SMR re-rated once investors connected the AI/data-center power-demand theme to nuclear power; he notes Oklo's stock peaked around $193 per share (correcting an initial guess of $140), giving it roughly a $15 billion market cap despite being, in his view, many years from a commercial reactor.

Anpanman suggests that if this article prompts strategic conversations (e.g., Microsoft or Google calling a banker to ask about the space/launch landscape), it could act as a catalyst that re-rates the entire sector, similar to how his own experience as a former investment banker showed him such articles can trigger real M&A/partnership discussions.

Anpanman suggests research analysts should ask AST management directly on the next earnings call for their thoughts on data centers in space and how relevant the opportunity might be to the company, saying he expects 'a pretty interesting answer.'

As a hypothetical, Anpanman speculates that if Google offered AST $300-400 million to help develop a data-center business line, AST would likely accept, hire additional engineers, and expand production space accordingly — purely a hypothetical scenario, not something either company has proposed.

Anpanman speculates about how the stock might react if a headline reported AST SpaceMobile in talks with Google on next-generation space-based data centers, describing a scenario where short sellers would be forced to capitalize as the stock re-rates on the new narrative; he stresses this is a hypothetical, not that the company has ever leaked such talks to the press.

Anpanman predicts space stocks broadly, including AST, should trade up the day after this episode due to the OpenAI/Stoke news, though he cautions this is just his guess and he could be wrong.

Anpanman notes shorts tried to 'pound the stock' at the open the prior day, driving it down to about $43, before getting 'completely smoked' as buying resumed; a similar attempt happened again that morning before the stock reversed and ground higher.

Anpanman says he'd been discussing the move with Kook and cites Kevin Mack's writing suggesting short covering is a factor, but argues the buying feels too 'orderly,' consistent with one or more large institutions VWAPing into a position rather than pure short covering.

Anpanman speculates that some of the move could reflect information 'leaking' around interesting company activity in defense work, drawing an analogy to politicians like Nancy Pelosi or Tommy Tuberville getting early awareness of government-related developments; he also flags renewed chatter about potential strategic investments.

Anpanman notes that likely Golden Dome-beneficiary stocks broadly had performed well over roughly the prior two weeks (a point he says Katzy had highlighted), suggesting sector-wide defense-theme positioning may be contributing.

Anpanman poses a rhetorical question to himself about where AST SpaceMobile would trade in a 'steady state' with zero short interest -- musing it could be $60, $70, or $80 -- while cautioning that convertible-note holders who must stay short stock against their bonds complicate that calculation.

A caller named Chris, new to covering ASTS, calls in just to congratulate the Space Mob community, praising the business model (comparing it to 'up and to the right' businesses like Waste Management) and the depth of crowdsourced research versus institutional analysts he's seen; he says he's bought call options and done well over the prior weeks.

Anpanman draws a direct comparison to Palantir, saying Palantir was once seen as a 'nebulous' big-data stock until investors recognized concrete military use cases and large awards, at which point it re-rated sharply; he wonders if AST SpaceMobile is undergoing the same shift as investors move from viewing it as purely consumer commercial broadband to also pricing in military use cases.

Mitch asks whether AST SpaceMobile could see a re-rating like Palantir's even without major near-term revenue growth, noting Palantir's cap gains didn't obviously track revenue increases, and asks if branding AST as a defense layer before commercial service launches could support a similarly outsized valuation.

Anpanman argues that on the commercial side, bears question adoption and willingness-to-pay ('paying the same price as 2 cups of coffee is too much'), whereas on the government side the technology's usefulness is accepted but how much the government will pay is unclear; he says Singapore is evaluating the technology for defense use cases and that the Vodafone SatCo joint venture could open European defense interest given AST's existing work with NATO.

Anpanman draws an Nvidia analogy (crediting Katzy and Veronica for first using it): Nvidia chips were first seen as graphics accelerators before their use expanded into AI and other applications, similar to how AST's constellation could underpin many applications (consumer connectivity, IoT, tracking, military jamming/spoofing, backup GPS) beyond the original commercial thesis.

Anpanman says the convertible notes themselves should have no direct stock impact; note holders typically run a full ('one delta') hedge, and recently some convert-arb holders have likely been unwinding that trade -- covering their short stock and selling the bonds to fundamental long-only buyers -- as rising borrow costs make holding the arb less attractive, which itself has probably helped fuel some of the stock's move up.

Anpanman says the company has become 'very good' at using its ATM opportunistically: it avoids using it on days it would move the stock, doesn't sell at the open, and on quiet days may sell only a single-digit percentage of volume-weighted volume, and only when the stock is up.

Based on a recent Schedule 13D filing for Abel Avellan (referenced against a mid-May share count), Anpanman estimates the company has raised roughly $280 million during the rally via the ATM, and given more recent volume, probably closer to $300 million (or 'low $300 million'), against the $500 million ATM program's total size.

Anpanman argues opening-price drops instead look more like deliberate attempts by desperate short sellers or algos to trigger stop-losses and manipulate sentiment, citing a prior example after a Q2 2024 quarterly update when someone walked the price down pre-market on relatively few shares before the stock gapped up hard at the open.

Anpanman explains the Ligado deal gives AST access to additional spectrum (used in partnership with AT&T and Verizon) that could relieve network congestion in crowded venues (e.g., a stadium) or provide connectivity during disasters/power outages when terrestrial towers are down.

Anpanman confirms Starlink's current direct-to-cell service is largely sporadic texting, while AST's is designed for full voice, data, and video, though users in a densely used cell may see throttling; he frames the use case as complementary connectivity (checking news, sending photos) rather than streaming Netflix while hiking.

Jacob adds that once Ligado and other MSS spectrum become usable more broadly, coverage becomes more like unified 'global spectrum rights' rather than needing to piecemeal agreements MNO-by-MNO and country-by-country.

Anpanman clarifies the Ligado deal is specific to the US and Canada; extending seamless over-water or international coverage elsewhere would require additional deals with other global spectrum holders (he cites Omnispace as an example) and inter-MNO agreements.

Jacob says he'd already fielded a listener question about whether Blue Origin could deliver on launch commitments, and argues that if Blue Origin has significant problems roughly 18 months out and can't keep pace with demand, SpaceX's Falcon 9 would fill the gap; he also speculates the company could add a third or fourth launch provider given its improved capital position.

Anpanman notes Blue Origin's New Glenn had a successful launch but did not land the booster, though he'd heard only a few minor issues prevented that landing; he says the company (AST) seems confident in Blue Origin's capability and has multiple providers -- Blue Origin, SpaceX Falcon 9, and ISRO -- as a hedge, and that raising additional capital gives AST the flexibility to backfill launch capacity if needed.

Anpanman argues SpaceX actually has available launch capacity but chooses to fill it with its own Starlink satellites when there aren't enough paying customers, and that SpaceX would generally prefer paying customers (cash upfront) over launching its own satellites (payback spread over time), so he doesn't view launch capacity as a major structural risk for AST.

Jacob agrees that once Blue Origin starts successfully landing and reusing boosters, their launch cadence should increase meaningfully since they won't need to rebuild an entire new booster for every flight.

Anpanman says upcoming catalysts (including initial Block 2 leverage) should help de-risk the story, and that people are getting ahead of that anticipated news, which he thinks partly explains the stock's recent strength.

Anpanman advises that risk tolerance should scale with personal circumstances (younger investors with income can take more risk than those near retirement), and recommends, at minimum, taking out one's original cost basis when a position has large gains, while being mindful of capital-gains tax treatment (short-term vs. long-term, or using tax-advantaged accounts).

On options specifically, Anpanman says pure long-dated directional options are 'like going to Vegas' and a near-guaranteed way to lose money over time, but that options used opportunistically -- when volatility is cheap and conviction is high -- can offer good risk/reward; he cites his own short-dated June out-of-the-money calls bought when vol was cheap and short interest/borrow rates were at all-time highs as an example that worked out.

Anpanman stresses option positions must be actively monitored ('like a hawk'), sized so a total loss wouldn't matter, and managed with a predefined plan (time horizon, profit-taking levels, and a rule to close out if the expected catalyst doesn't happen in time), since gains can evaporate quickly from decay, price pullbacks, or volatility collapse.

Anpanman recommends that even highly convicted, fully invested holders take some profits at elevated levels (e.g., 10-20% of a position) and set the proceeds aside, arguing it provides psychological 'moment of clarity' and reduces the anxiety of large unrealized drawdowns.

Anpanman says he has 'nothing against' using margin on a high-volatility stock like ASTS in specific, time-boxed, high-conviction situations (e.g., a pullback for reasons that 'don't make sense' ahead of expected catalysts), but only with predefined stop and exit levels, since margin during a normal drawdown period can force an unwanted liquidation.

Defending insider selling, Anpanman estimates President Scott Wisniewski left a banking role (previously at Barclays) paying an estimated $400,000-$600,000 salary plus a bonus he estimates in the range of $1-4 million, to take a roughly $250,000 salary at AST while supporting a young family; Anpanman says Wisniewski sold less than 5% of his holdings and argues company executives besides Abel Avellan (who takes no salary or new stock grants) are compensated mostly in stock, with base salaries around $250,000 that are modest compared to peer companies like Intuitive Machines (where he says the CEO/CFO earn roughly $700,000-$800,000 in salary alone).

Anpanman explains AST's large phased-array satellites can beam precise, low-interference signals, unlike Starlink's smaller arrays, which he says raise more interference risk; Ligado's spectrum sits adjacent to GPS frequencies, and concerns about interference with GPS/defense applications reportedly derailed Ligado's earlier attempt at a terrestrial fixed-wireless service.

Anpanman says Ligado was in financial distress (facing a second or third failed attempt at launching a terrestrial service) when AST proposed a deal: AST pays a comparatively cheap upfront fee (penny warrants), payments to Inmarsat, and $80 million in annual payments, plus roughly 12.5% of all North American revenues AST generates using the spectrum -- upside Ligado found attractive given AST's satellites could actually monetize the spectrum without interference.

Anpanman argues AST's business-relationship trustworthiness was also a factor: he contrasts Abel Avellan's reputation for reliability with the perceived risk of partnering with Elon Musk's companies, citing Musk's attempt to back out of and then renegotiate the Twitter acquisition as a cautionary example, and notes Verizon chose AST over Starlink partly because Starlink's fixed-wireless/home-internet ambitions compete with Verizon's own fiber business.

Anpanman says Ligado itself has valued the spectrum at roughly $39 billion in a terrestrial fixed-wireless use case, and frames a 'sum of the parts' bull argument: if AST's Ligado spectrum rights alone are worth a large fraction of the current market cap, investors are effectively getting the commercial, defense, and government businesses 'for free.'

Anpanman says Vodafone Idea is a joint venture between Vodafone and Idea with the Indian government owning about 49%, and that the entity has had financial issues; he frames the AST partnership as a way for Vodafone Idea (India's third-largest carrier, with roughly 212 million subscribers behind Jio and Bharti Airtel) to differentiate and add a new growth avenue by reaching an estimated 450 million Indians who currently lack internet access.

Anpanman says he expects markets like India to be growth drivers on a multi-year horizon (roughly 1-3 years out) rather than near-term, since rolling out infrastructure and regulatory approvals in each new country takes time, similar to how Starlink phases country rollouts one at a time.

Anpanman explains Kuiper is Amazon's answer to Starlink's fixed-wireless home-broadband service (an alternative to cable/fiber), not a direct-to-device offering, so it's not directly competitive with AST's core business.

Anpanman says speculation about a deeper AST-Amazon relationship (an investment from Bezos/Amazon, or AST using AWS/Azure for government-related backend infrastructure) has been fueled partly by public sightings, like Abel Avellan meeting with Jeff Bezos, but says 'I don't think anybody knows' if anything concrete is planned; he notes AST is reportedly the largest commercial Blue Origin launch customer outside of Kuiper and the Department of Defense.

Anpanman answers that he has no other current transformative investment idea of similar conviction; ASTS remains his primary position, with only smaller speculative bets elsewhere.

He says ASTS was down about $1.60 overnight, but attributes this largely to broader macro turmoil -- specifically volatility in the Japanese yen and liquidations in crypto markets (he references traders in Korea on perpetual futures platform Hyperliquid) -- rather than anything company-specific.

Kook argues that near-term company events like press releases for FM2, FM8-10, and FM11-13 are effectively certain to happen since satellite composite/hardware has already been photographed and delivered, and that the market sentiment swings ignore this underlying certainty.

Kook quotes Scott Wisniewski saying at the conference, 'we've also made other MSS spectrum moves globally,' and speculates this may reference more than the already-known ITU S-band priority rights deal -- possibly connecting to Vodafone/AST's SatCo joint venture pursuit of EU 2 GHz spectrum -- but says he suspects there is more to it than is currently known and is not certain.

Kook frames AST's spectrum position as an increasingly important upstream asset, comparing it to 19th-century US railroads that received land grants carrying mineral rights (citing Burlington Oil and Gas as a descendant of Burlington Railroad); he says this spectrum-value angle was not part of his original investment thesis but is now a meaningful, positive change to it.

Kook speculates the market could eventually place an additional $100, $200, or $300 per share of value on AST's spectrum position, explicitly labeling this a made-up/guessed figure rather than a calculation.

Kook notes AST SpaceMobile updated its website and speculates this could signal the company is preparing for increased public attention, possibly tied to the start of commercialization or partners beginning to promote the service ahead of next-gen satellite launches.

Kook argues that Vodafone building partnerships with multiple MNOs across Europe (rather than one exclusive partner) means AST's addressable market share in Europe will be much higher than initially assumed, drawing an analogy to the US where going from AT&T-exclusive (about 30-35% of the market) to adding Verizon (about 70% of the market) was a major expansion; he ties this to the company's basic revenue model of users times ARPU.

Kook cites analyst 'Reformed Trader' (whom he calls credible/objective despite past disagreements) noting ASTS has retraced to the 61.8% Fibonacci level of an uptrend that began in May 2024, which Reformed Trader reads as consistent with the stock being near a bottom before a larger move higher.

Kook expects a press release on FM7/BB7, followed by visibility on the next two launches (described as multi-satellite batches) that would demonstrate ramping production capacity, and hopes for an update on progress toward the stated six-satellites-per-month production cadence goal.

Kook theorizes the Department of War/Defense is deliberately keeping large Golden Dome contracts undisclosed by issuing smaller contracts instead, which favors large, well-capitalized companies over small ones that would need to fund work off their own balance sheets.

Kook notes Honeywell and (he believes) Lockheed Martin have released Golden Dome-related promotional videos, and observes AST SpaceMobile satellite renderings have started showing a 'golden halo' graphic similar to imagery he says Lockheed also used, which he reads as a possible signal of AST's involvement.

Kook connects AST's roughly $1.1 billion convertible note raise plus ATM sales (roughly $1.5 billion total in October) to Golden Dome positioning, arguing the resulting balance-sheet strength puts the company in a unique position to compete for large, self-funded defense contracts, though he says the company likely would have raised the capital regardless.

Kook recalls that the prior week, Blue Origin said it has a new 9X-capability variant of the New Glenn rocket with three named customers -- Amazon (for Kuiper), NASA, and AST SpaceMobile -- and specifically said this rocket variant will serve Golden Dome; Kook believes AST's role in Golden Dome may have increased as Blue Origin revealed more of its own capability, suggesting the two companies could be part of a package deal.

Kook notes AST SpaceMobile issued unusual press releases the prior week emphasizing its US/domestic facilities, which is not typical (facility updates are normally only mentioned in quarterly updates); citing community member Kevin Shen's theory, Kook speculates this could be priming for an upcoming six-satellites-per-month production update, a response to a SpaceX FCC filing implying AST is now a 'European company' because of the SatCo joint venture, or simply an effort to emphasize American ties ahead of Golden Dome announcements.

Kook says he expects broader Golden Dome-related announcements involving multiple companies to become public 'by Christmas' -- about three weeks from the recording date.

Kook believes AST SpaceMobile deliberately shares information/tidbits with the retail investor 'space mob' community (naming himself, Katsy, Kevin, Tanner, Tut, and Anpanman as frequent posters), viewing the company as loyal to and supportive of its retail base rather than trying to pump the stock.

Discussing Scott Wisniewski's Deutsche Bank comments about the benefits of large satellites generating a lot of orbital power, Kook reiterates his long-standing view that power generation is the critical constraint enabling AST's large phased-array antenna, and speculates that as the AI race intensifies, AST SpaceMobile's power-generation lead could position it to enable AI data centers in space, expanding its total addressable market in coming years.

Citing a point from community member Tanner, Kook says only about four large GEO satellites have been ordered industry-wide this year, with a midpoint mass around 6,000 kilograms each (roughly 24,000 kg total), and argues AST SpaceMobile is positioned to produce that much satellite tonnage per month by December (or January if it slips), comparing the disruptive scale to Tesla's manufacturing approach.

Kook cites job postings from AST partner Fairwinds referencing 'ASTS militarized broadband devices' and 'ASTS tactical hub systems' as evidence the company's technology is being built into specific defense products.

Kook references the F-47 next-generation fighter jet program, which is designed to operate alongside multiple drones, arguing this illustrates growing demand for connectivity that AST SpaceMobile could help provide.

Kook says AST's agreements reportedly include specific revenue triggers tied to integration of its spectrum with Apple and/or Google, and argues it isn't surprising Apple is engaging with AST given AST's spectrum relationships covering roughly 70% of US MNO market share.

Kook raises as an open question whether Apple will eventually drop Globalstar in favor of AST SpaceMobile, saying a press release confirming that would be premature today but that Globalstar may only retain value for backup emergency texting rather than the broadband use case he expects AST to win.

Kook discusses rising European rhetoric around potential conflict with Russia and European rearmament, arguing this creates a need for space capabilities that Europe currently lacks, and suggests Vodafone/SatCo is well positioned to supply that need, potentially leading to a large spectrum allocation and contract for AST in Europe.

Kook jokes that AST's website comparing satellite size used a BMW 5 Series (rather than, e.g., a Ford F-150) as the reference vehicle, and half-jokingly speculates this hints AST has its sights set on winning a role in Europe's IRIS² satellite program after Golden Dome, while noting he does not fully understand IRIS²'s funding structure or whether there is an 'off-ramp' if the program struggles (he specifically asks listeners who understand IRIS² better to reach out).

Kook explains that with AST SpaceMobile, MNOs use their own network and ground equipment (AST is a 'dumb pipe'), preserving data sovereignty, whereas Starlink's direct-to-cell integration puts the base station (eNodeB) in space on a separate network, which is not forward compatible and doesn't preserve MNO data sovereignty; MNOs reportedly view Starlink deals as showing up as a large expense on their own P&L.

Kook cites a find by Anpanman regarding Intel's Starlink pitch materials showing Starlink direct-to-cell is currently SMS-only, works only with newer non-Apple handsets, and can only be used outdoors, contrasting this with Vodafone's public statements about AST's broadband capability on its own network.

Kook notes Vodafone has increasingly discussed first-responder and emergency-response use cases, and speculates this points to SatCo effectively recreating a FirstNet-like public-safety network in Europe as a significant revenue opportunity.

Kook says he did a rough back-of-envelope estimate suggesting AST SpaceMobile could reach $20 to $30 billion in revenue, built from AT&T/Verizon US monetization (including Ligado spectrum), roughly doubled to account for Europe/SatCo, plus government opportunities he estimates could easily exceed $1 billion in the US alone, citing potential for around ten programs of record worth roughly $100 million each (with some possibly larger) and guessing Golden Dome alone could be worth $1 billion; he stresses this was quick, rough math, not official guidance.

Kook argues that looking at a fast-growing, high-market-share company on a simple trailing P/E multiple is misleading, using an example of a company at '20 times earnings' that owns 70% of a market growing 40% a year, which he says can effectively be '1 times earnings' once growth is properly modeled forward -- describing this nonlinearity as central to his investment approach of identifying market-share winners early.

Kook notes that AST SpaceMobile board member and early Series A investor Adriana Cisneros reportedly put her family's annual tax-free gift exclusion for her children (he estimates roughly $18,000 per child per spouse, or about $40,000 total) into ASTS stock, which he reads as a notable bullish signal given she is already a billionaire and could have chosen a lower-risk vehicle like the S&P 500.

Kook discusses industry reports on Starlink causing radio-frequency interference, arguing that as AST's satellites become active, there will be growing attention to the contrast between Starlink's roughly 7,000-satellite constellation (which he says causes significant RF pollution and atmospheric damage on deorbit) and AST's advanced beamforming, which he says avoids disrupting radio telescopes and terrestrial spectrum; he expects this to become an ESG-style differentiator over time.

Kook says he does not know whether a press release will come the next morning (Monday, December 1) but expects one eventually on FM7 shipping, as well as press releases on two additional batches of satellites (believed to be three each) shipping for SpaceX launches, which he says are visible tracking on NextSpaceflight.

Kook closes by summarizing December expectations: the FM1 launch, additional satellite shipments, an update on production guidance, and possible Golden Dome updates, calling it an exciting month ahead.

Kook says the confirmed FM1 launch date is expected/known already from tracking the Antonov flight to India, but formalizing it still matters as the real kickoff of the Block 2 constellation buildout.

Kook says if the company issues a PR in December (around the week after next) confirming it has reached a six-satellite-per-month production cadence, he believes 'it's game on' for the stock.

Kook attributes the October-into-November selloff in nonprofitable/innovation tech stocks (including ASTS) to a collision of factors: repricing of Fed rate-cut expectations and Michael Burry-driven 'AI slam' sentiment, calling this 'factor risk' rather than company-specific news.

Kook says Fed Chair Powell is now leaning toward a December rate cut and Bitcoin is rallying, and connects much of the recent turmoil to Japan's stimulus efforts weakening the yen and blowing out Japanese government bonds (JGBs), which he describes as revealing that crypto had effectively been 'one big carry trade on the yen.'

Kook notes that a 25 basis point shift in Fed rate-cut expectations acted as a 'tripwire' causing cascading selling, and that programmatic investors and pension funds are underweight equities for the first time in months, similar to the pattern he traded during the COVID crash bottom in February/March.

Kook recounts that when the Antonov aircraft carrying FM1 was seen flying back to the US (to Midland), some investors panicked assuming something was wrong with the satellite, which Kook believes in hindsight marked the market bottom.

Kook references chart analyst Reformed Trader's view that ASTS has a path to the $150 range in early 2026, describing Reformed as unusually accurate and someone who combines technical analysis with real fundamental understanding of the company.

Kook describes a recurring ASTS pattern of violent run-ups into launch events followed by 40-50% declines, and notes a serial-correlation tendency (e.g., roughly 11 green candles in a row during the 'endless rally' of June 2025).

Kook's personal takeaway from studying this pattern: be very careful selling covered calls or shorting ASTS after a 'certainty of execution' news event, since the stock's typical follow-through can be much larger than expected (citing the October run from the 50s toward 100); he says he added some call option exposure on Thursday after the stock rose for a second consecutive day.

Kook reads Avellan's decision to roll rather than cash out — especially given the stock previously traded near $100 — as a strong signal of the CEO's bullishness and desire to minimize his own dilution/selling.

Kook cites a comment from someone named Corey that instead of securing financial freedom by selling shares at $100, many holders (including Kook) instead just took a screenshot — which Kook views as a preview of a price level the stock can reach again.

New third-party research suggests the direct-to-cell (DTC) demand model implies roughly a $37 billion market by 2030; Kook explicitly flags this as a rough, 'finger in the air' estimate but says the key point is the market is large and growing, which drives valuation multiples.

Kook interprets the RWA's own complaint as inadvertent confirmation that AST's technology threatens to displace terrestrial roaming revenue for carriers like AT&T and Verizon, which he believes could multiply AST's addressable market well beyond the original 'dead zone' coverage thesis.

Citing an FCC C-band spectrum auction thread by an analyst Kook calls Cathie/Casey, a full terrestrial buildout of newly released spectrum would require an estimated 20,000-40,000 tower sites costing $25-40 billion in capex plus $1-2 billion in opex, versus roughly $1 billion for an AST satellite block that could cover the entire US with minimal ongoing opex.

Kook reiterates his long-standing thesis that mobile network operators will treat AST like 'their AWS' — shifting capex to a more capital-efficient satellite model and focusing their own resources on spectrum and customer ownership rather than owning tower infrastructure.

Kook contrasts AST's low-cost spectrum access with Starlink reportedly paying $23 billion for 50 MHz of US capacity, arguing AST has obtained comparable spectrum access 'for peanuts' because its technology is the only viable use case for otherwise-unusable spectrum.

Kook says AST's low-cost spectrum strategy is not limited to the Ligado deal, pointing to ongoing EU 2 GHz MSS spectrum reallocation proceedings affecting incumbents like EchoStar, which reportedly only needs 5 MHz to maintain its current service despite holding 15x15 MHz channels for 15 years and using only about a third of that.

Kook speculates that as EU spectrum reallocations occur (which he believes may not go to auction the way US spectrum does), the AST/Vodafone joint venture SatCo has a good chance of being awarded spectrum in exchange for a service commitment rather than a cash purchase.

Kook jokes that AST could be viewed as 'the first spectrum treasury holding company,' and says this evolving understanding of AST's global spectrum-aggregation strategy is what shifted his own valuation framework from an original $100-200 billion opportunity toward a potential path to a trillion dollars of value.

Kook argues the FCC is unlikely to penalize AST for accommodating European data-sovereignty requirements and believes AST has effectively 'outflanked' SpaceX in Europe.

Citing a conversation with an engineer formerly at Iridium, Kook explains that Starlink's Direct-to-Cell system requires roughly a 100-kilometer buffer from national borders, which is a minor issue in the large US but would effectively delete usable coverage across large parts of a geographically compact Europe, making SpaceX poorly suited to serve Europe and contributing to the EU's own 'Iris Squared' satellite initiative being effectively doomed at inception, leaving an opening for the Vodafone/AST SatCo solution.

Both SpaceX and T-Mobile filed FCC docket complaints against AST, which an analyst Kook calls Katsy rebutted point-by-point through what Kook calls 'Truthful Analysis'; Kook views these filings as signs of competitive desperation and lawfare-style stalling that he expects will ultimately fail, and possibly a sign AST's own approvals could come quickly.

Kook discusses SpaceX's Starship program setback, noting footage (including from a Ring camera) over the weekend appeared to show Booster 18 exploding, following earlier landing failures, and says Starship has not yet reached true orbit; he frames continued Starship delays as favorable for AST relative to Starlink's ambitions, while noting Starlink still faces structural disadvantages versus AST's MNO relationships even once Starship works.

Senator Ted Cruz has been discussing the BEAD (Broadband Equity and Access Directive) program, a roughly $42 billion federal broadband fund still being spent, and has visited AST SpaceMobile's facility; Kook takes this as a hint that BEAD funding could become applicable to AST.

Kook expects a Bell Canada Developmental Authorization (DA) is coming soon, based on FCC extensions and successful testing referenced by Bell in its own earnings releases, though he doesn't know if it will include the kind of prepayment terms seen in the STC deal since Bell is already an AST investor, and isn't sure the market will react strongly to it.

Kook notes additional regulatory activity including UK testing, a Special Temporary Authorization (STA) for testing in Mexico, and testing in Ireland, plus the potential for SCS 'front haul' FCC approval — which he calls the final major regulatory approval — possibly arriving at any time and hopefully before year-end.

An analyst Kook calls Katsy noted that the new/'newer' Glenn fairing dimensions appear to exactly fit AST's Block 2 satellites side by side, which Kook believes is probably not a coincidence and could enable AST to launch more satellites per mission than previously thought.

Kook speculates that if AST were to win Golden Dome-related work, it would serve as a major validation catalyst for the stock, though he cautions this is speculative and stresses that not winning it wouldn't be catastrophic for the company.

Citing Morgan [Stanley] Research, Wisniewski says the direct-to-device market is estimated in the tens of billions of dollars, but explicitly hedges: 'I'm not smart enough to know how big it'll be' — this is framed as a rough estimate/spitball rather than a firm projection. He adds AST sees 'a good runway to tens of billions of dollars in the end state of revenue.'

Wisniewski says AST believes it is decades away from being pushed to marginal economics, describing the current period as a land grab and large buildout phase where having more technology, carrier relationships, spectrum, and capital confers lasting advantage.

Beyond the add-on model, Wisniewski lists several other potential future monetization approaches under consideration, including offloading, edge offloading, disaster recovery, backup options, and standalone options — without specifying which, if any, AST will pursue next.

Heading into the December Fed meeting, without official data the Fed must decide based on incomplete information; as of this episode Anpanman estimates the probability of a December rate cut at only 30-40%, down from what had seemed like a near-certain cut earlier, after several Fed governors (he counts three, two of whom are voting members) made hawkish comments about inflation being stubborn.

Odd/mixed data points are feeding uncertainty: Atlanta Fed GDP estimates are above 4%, employment data released the same day was mixed, and Anpanman personally believes the economy looks like it's weakening despite the Atlanta Fed figure.

Anpanman argues brokers allowing 20-100x leverage on crypto is reckless, and separately states he personally never uses margin on a volatile stock like ASTS because a volatile asset will get you stopped out at the wrong time; he may tactically use margin briefly with well-defined stops, but does not hold on margin.

When the Saudi Telecom deal (worth at minimum $1.8 billion over 10 years with a $175 million prepayment) was announced, Anpanman expected the stock to jump roughly 20%, but the reaction was muted and the stock continued selling off afterward — evidence to him that macro sentiment, not company fundamentals, is currently driving the price.

Anpanman notes other speculative/high-growth names have seen equal or greater drawdowns than ASTS's roughly 50% decline, framing the move as broad risk-off rather than ASTS-specific.

Anpanman recommends investors not use margin right now, and if seeking leveraged exposure, to use capped-risk structures like call options or call spreads rather than shorting puts, since short-volatility positions add exposure exactly when volatility is spiking.

A listener asked (paraphrased as 'Cook Report TLDR') whether the stock is going up; Anpanman says he's uncertain near-term but is fairly confident it goes up over the medium and long term.

Responding to a listener asking for a likely bottom, with the suggestion that under $20 is possible if BB6 doesn't launch and BB7 slips to mid-December, Anpanman says he thinks a sub-$20 scenario is possible in an irrational scenario but believes there's a hard floor near the estimated spectrum value.

Anpanman recalls that when ASTS hit about $100 in October, a decent amount of that was 'froth' driven by broader market euphoria around AI, nuclear power, and quantum computing causing investors to aggressively discount future cash flows forward, though he says there was also legitimate optimism tied to the upcoming launch campaign and newly signed definitive agreements.

Anpanman argues prior bear cases against the company have been resolved: funding was previously seen as a major risk, but the company has now raised enough to fund launching more than 100 satellites; the launch-provider risk (Blue Origin being unproven) has also eased since New Glenn reached orbit twice and landed its booster on the second attempt, apparently coming very close on the first attempt but for an engine relight issue.

Anpanman says the remaining execution risk is satellite bus (control-sat) production, distinct from the 'micron' flat panels; the first two BlueBirds used metal buses (speculated to be associated with government-related experiments), while the company is now producing composite buses, with satellites 8 through 19 disclosed as at various stages of production.

Anpanman notes AT&T representatives were recently at the manufacturing factory and likely signed off on BlueBird 7, which is close to shipping to Florida.

Katsy/Catsy analyzed the new fairing's dimensions and estimated New Glenn Heavy could fit around 12 Block 2 BlueBird satellites per launch; the current New Glenn can reportedly carry up to 8 Block 2 BlueBirds, though Anpanman guesses the earliest BlueBird-carrying New Glenn flights (the third or fourth New Glenn launch, possibly around February or March) will be limited to 6.

Anpanman speculates the current (non-Heavy) New Glenn could ramp to carrying 8 BlueBirds per launch by the second half of 2026 as Blue Origin improves engine efficiency.

At 12 BlueBirds per launch, New Glenn Heavy would let AST reach 60 satellites in orbit in just 5 launches, though the rocket won't be available until 2027.

Anpanman says this roadmap disclosure was likely a surprise to most ASTS shareholders, but notes Abel Avellan and Scott Wisniewski are close with Blue Origin, have toured its facilities multiple times, and know David Limp and Jeff Bezos personally — suggesting AST diligenced Blue Origin's ability to hit a launch cadence before committing to it as a primary launch partner (alongside continued use of ISRO and SpaceX).

ASTS's current market cap is about $18.7 billion (enterprise value roughly similar after netting cash against debt); Anpanman estimates the company has around $2.8 billion of cash following the recent $1.2 billion convertible raise (though he notes Bloomberg's cash figure may not yet be updated).

Valuing the 80-year Ligado spectrum rights alone at roughly $12-15 billion (he cites a range and separately notes full Ligado/L-band ownership was once valued around $30 billion), backing that out of the $18.7 billion market cap implies the market is pricing the rest of AST's commercial and defense business at only about $3-4 billion.

Anpanman contrasts this with Globalstar trading up on similar spectrum-value arguments (e.g., a Seeking Alpha article), noting that article omitted that Apple owns 85% of Globalstar's capacity, meaning Globalstar investors are really only exposed to about 15% of that capacity plus some 2.4 GHz terrestrial spectrum.

Charting the stock's history, ASTS traded in the $30s after the Ligado deal was first announced in January 2025, and didn't move into the $40s-$50 range until around when the EchoStar-SpaceX spectrum transaction happened (he places that in September, noting rumors likely started leaking over the summer) — implying the market has historically taken time to price in spectrum value.

Anpanman similarly notes Saudi Telecom (majority government-owned, with PIF — a major SpaceX/Tesla investor with close Elon Musk ties) still chose AST for its 10-year direct-to-device agreement just a few weeks before this episode, as a further validation point.

Golden Dome-related news/timing is expected to be delayed by the government shutdown, with an update likely around January 2026, per Anpanman's own read ('according to our work').

Anpanman cites a third-party estimate (Bank of America) projecting only a few hundred million dollars of AST revenue in 2027, framing this as evidence Wall Street is underestimating the company and setting up future price-target upgrades as commercial service ramps.

Anpanman speculates that given Saudi Arabia's recently signed defense pact with President Trump, Saudi Arabia could eventually seek its own 'Golden Dome'-style defense capability leveraging AST's satellites, subject to US government comfort level — framed explicitly as speculation.

Anpanman tracks an escalating pattern of MNO prepayment sizes: roughly $20-25 million from AT&T/Vodafone, about $65 million from Verizon (as he states it), and $175 million from Saudi Telecom, suggesting AST's negotiating leverage is improving with each successive deal.

Anpanman flags Bell Canada and Etisalat (Abu Dhabi) as MNOs he believes could sign next, noting 'some speculation' and links suggesting Etisalat could bring a potentially large premium.

The SatCo joint venture with Vodafone has established a network operating center in Germany, and people from Vodafone now working on SatCo are reportedly bullish about MNO interest across Europe, with AST/SatCo well positioned to obtain 2 GHz S-band spectrum from a 2027 European reallocation.

Anpanman notes there are roughly 46-47 more marquee MNO agreements still to be signed beyond the ones already announced, framing each as a distinct future economic event investors can model.

ASTS has experienced a roughly 40% drawdown from recent highs, which Kook frames as a normal, recurring pattern for the stock rather than a break in the thesis; he notes these drawdowns often coincide with financings that themselves tend to coincide with peaky markets.

Kook attributes part of the broader market weakness to an 'AI bubble' narrative affecting the Nasdaq broadly, comparing it to the 1990s fiber buildout, and says ASTS itself doesn't have much direct connection to that narrative.

Kook says he was bullish near $100 per share and thought the stock could run to $140, which in hindsight was exactly the top; he expects the stock to revisit those levels again.

Kook characterizes current investor sentiment in the ASTS community as unusually resilient despite the drawdown, viewing it as a normal 'September-October boogeyman' style shakeout that happened to strike a bit later, in late October/November.

Management did not break out the composition of the $1 billion figure, but Kook believes most of it comes from the STC deal based on available disclosure.

Kook argues that minimum revenue floors make AST's revenue base 'bankable' — meaning banks can use it as credit support — which he expects will allow AST to access more/cheaper lending, including via Ex-Im Bank debt guarantees (similar to financing structures used by cruise lines and Boeing), as one of several sources of non-dilutive capital going forward.

Kook clarifies that AST being 'fully funded' and continuing to raise capital are not contradictory: the company has been fully funded for successive, expanding milestones (Block 1, first 25 units, continuous service of 45, full constellation of 100, multiple shells including Blackbirds), and each new raise typically corresponds to funding a bigger stated milestone rather than a shortfall in prior funding.

Second, the financing/bankruptcy-risk short thesis diffused as AST raised what Kook calls an 'unimaginable amount of money.'

Kook says the stock rerated heavily after the September 30 press release about FM1 shipping (with FM2 expected to ship in October), but as of the November 16 episode date FM2 shipment had not yet been confirmed, creating market apprehension about the production rate.

Kook is 'not concerned' about the FM2 timing and believes it's simply an issue of coordinating with the launch vehicle — he expects AST to keep satellites in Midland for testing as long as possible before shipping, rather than the delay reflecting a real production problem; he notes AT&T CEO John Stankey's visit and signing as a positive signal.

Kook frames the ASIC-equipped BlueBirds shipping, launching, unfurling, and communicating as the key remaining proof point before the stock moves into what he calls its 'final gear.'

As a back-of-envelope proxy (not official company guidance), Kook applies AT&T/Verizon's estimated revenue-per-megahertz of spectrum (roughly a quarter of a billion dollars per MHz, used as a Ligado spectrum monetization proxy) to AST's ~80 MHz of secured US spectrum, implying roughly $20 billion of theoretical gross revenue-generating capacity in the US alone; he flags this could be conservative since AST's satellite-enabled spectrum should be worth more than average terrestrial commodity spectrum.

Of AST's currently controlled spectrum, the AT&T and Verizon contributions are still small slivers — Kook estimates about 2.6 or 2.8 MHz from each — with the expectation that MNOs will grant more spectrum once commercial service is live and capacity needs grow.

Kook contrasts AST's spectrum-acquisition strategy (largely obtained cheaply or for free via partnerships, e.g. the Ligado deal at what he characterizes as roughly 10 cents on the dollar) with SpaceX, which he says paid $22 billion for its own spectrum.

Kook cites a tweet from @LukeTradesASTS summarizing the AI connectivity thesis simply: 'NVIDIA makes the chips that run AI. ASTS connects the devices that use AI,' framing future AI-enabled robots and drones as needing satellite connectivity that only AST can provide.

Referencing an X account 'Tough for You,' who Kook believes has a military background, Kook says there's more data suggesting the SDA Halo program work is a precursor to larger Golden Dome-related developments.

SatCo (the Vodafone-AST European JV) continues to expand and, in Kook's view, could potentially sign up nearly all European MNOs; he believes SatCo is well positioned to win the Iris Squared sovereign European satellite constellation opportunity, which he says could be worth many billions of dollars.

Kook says the original Iris Squared concept (an EU-mandated multi-country consortium constellation) was economically flawed and effectively dead on arrival, whereas SatCo is already testing in Malaga and reportedly has interest from Meta/Facebook, positioning it to absorb the opportunity instead.

Kook says Iris Squared/SatCo could also lead to AST/Vodafone capturing European 2 GHz MSS spectrum, noting that current holders of that spectrum are reportedly up for license renewal around May 2027 (citing links from 'Dr. Mike').

Kook discusses a Mega Constellations interview in which Rocket Lab describes looking at 'tuck-ins' and unspecified 'big needle-moving stuff' rather than spending billions on spectrum, leading to speculation that Iridium and Rocket Lab could end up merging ('shotgun wedding') after both arguably got outplayed strategically.

Kook describes Iridium as a classic 'innovator's dilemma' case — the company pursued capital returns (dividends/buybacks) instead of reinvesting, leaving it vulnerable to disruption, though it retains roughly $500 million of EBITDA and some spectrum assets.

Kook says he's uncertain why Rocket Lab's stock is up given a crowded launch market and no clear captive cargo base (unlike SpaceX, which can always fill its own rockets, or Blue Origin, which has Kuiper, NASA, and AST cargoes); he expects Rocket Lab to remain relevant mainly because the government wants supply diversity, likening its position to 'the AMD of 2010.'

Kook says SpaceX is the clear launch incumbent and AST is emerging as the clear breakout winner in LEO connectivity, leaving less room in the launch market for other cargo providers as SpaceX and AST/Blue Origin capacity fills up.

Kook now believes he understands the meaning of the 'congratulations' meme/photo of Abel Avellan, Ariana (daughter of a telecom executive), and Jeff Bezos from earlier this year: he interprets it as Abel having effectively vertically integrated with Blue Origin via a large multi-satellite launch contract, estimating AST contracted roughly 30-40+ satellites to launch on Blue Origin's New Glenn.

Kook emphasizes AST will still be a prolific SpaceX customer as well, and also has agreements to launch on Japanese, European (via ISRO/other), and Indian rockets, giving it diversified launch access excluding Russian and Chinese providers.

Kook argues that by the time Starlink's delayed satellites arrive, AST should already be the clear dominant, cash-flowing provider with deep MNO relationships and a more advanced product roadmap, reinforcing his 'winner-take-most' view with Starlink as a distant number two and little room for a third or fourth competitor (though he notes Lynk/Omnispace could potentially combine into some form of minor player).

Kook says he sees a path for AST SpaceMobile to become a $1 trillion company based on 'founder thinking' from Abel Avellan and the cards Scott Wisniewski appears to be holding on spectrum strategy, stressing this is not a price target but a reflection of the scale of opportunity he believes management is positioning for.

Kook flags the week before Thanksgiving as one where news could still be 'flushed out,' including a real chance of FM2 shipment confirmation, which he believes could excite the market; he also says clarifying PR about any FM2 timing delay could come at any time.

Kook says he's watching for developments tied to the US government reopening and what that could mean for potential Golden Dome-related announcements.

AST management reportedly had frequent (weekly or daily) updates with the Blue Origin team, met founder Jeff Bezos and Blue Origin's David Limp multiple times, and visited the factory repeatedly, expressing confidence the booster-landing issue would be resolved on the second attempt.

The US now has two reusable orbital launch vehicles (Falcon 9 and New Glenn), which Anpanman says breaks open what had been viewed as a SpaceX launch monopoly and should benefit customers industry-wide, with additional launch providers expected to add capacity through 2026 and especially 2027.

Anpanman's own guess is that AST won't put its own BlueBirds on a Blue Origin flight until New Glenn has demonstrated one or two more successful launches, likely using Falcon 9 in the meantime; he guesses AST's first BlueBirds could fly on New Glenn around February or March 2026 (spring).

Anpanman believes the defense business could be larger than the commercial business in the early years, before the constellation is fully deployed, after which commercial revenue would eventually dwarf it.