Episodes

He expects the regulatory review to be long — 'at a minimum, maybe 9 months' — covering FCC review and likely DOJ antitrust scrutiny, which he thinks will cause the deal to trade at a wide spread.

He thinks a rival SpaceX bid to top Amazon's offer post-IPO would be 'kind of like a fool's errand' since SpaceX would be competing against Amazon's balance sheet, so he doesn't expect that to happen, though he calls it 'possible.'

He calls the Apple-Amazon arrangement 'a bit of an odd marriage' since the two are consumer competitors elsewhere (and Amazon has discussed re-entering the phone/AI-device market), meaning conflict could grow later, but 'at least for this particular business, they seem to have worked out something.'

Amazon will continue paying for replenishment of the current Globalstar constellation, which he calls 'a mild positive for MDA Space,' Globalstar's satellite manufacturer.

He identifies AST SpaceMobile and Starlink as the current market leaders, with Amazon becoming 'a late player, but very powerful player' once its service launches.

He is unsure which US MNOs, if any, would partner with Amazon, since AT&T, Verizon, or T-Mobile might be wary given Amazon's LEO business could compete with their home-broadband (fiber/5G) offerings or eventually their wireless business; he suggests Amazon might instead pursue an MVNO-style deal or look to international MNO markets.

He doesn't think Abel Avellan is selling AST, and argues that staying independent is where AST's strategic value lies, since MNOs want to work with a satellite partner that isn't owned by a Big Tech company seeking to eventually compete with them for the customer relationship.

He theorizes that as consolidation continues around one vertical stack (SpaceX/Starlink/xAI/Tesla) and now Amazon/Blue Origin, AST becomes the remaining independent 'one-of-one' D2D company, raising its strategic value to companies without their own D2D network like Google, Meta, OpenAI, and Microsoft (noting Google is already a strategic investor and Meta already works with AST).

On Iridium: its spectrum is a single unpaired L-band swath (not paired spectrum), and only a small part is needed for Iridium's own operations; citing past comments from Iridium CEO Matt Desch, he speculates Iridium will eventually lease most of that spectrum to another player or get consolidated itself, though he doesn't know the timing.

He argues antitrust review likely would have blocked a SpaceX purchase of Globalstar given Starlink's dominant LEO position, whereas Amazon's deal is more likely to be approved since Amazon's LEO business is more nascent and it has no existing direct-to-device foothold.

He estimates that 45 MHz Ligado spectrum position represents 'what, 20, let's just say $20 billion out of $38 billion in enterprise value' — his own rough valuation — and separately characterizes AST's military business as covering about '10 different use cases around electronic warfare, jamming, sensing, communications.'

AST's Ligado lease runs 80 years — 'the life of that lease is going to be longer than I'm alive' — and he pegs Ligado's value, 'once it's fully deployed, let's say it's $20 billion,' explicitly framing this as his own estimate rather than a disclosed figure.

He notes AST satellites are the only ones able to use that Ligado spectrum on a non-interference basis, something that had previously 'plagued Legato [Ligado] in the past,' and credits management for closing the Ligado transaction plus other MSS spectrum rights globally.

He argues the total addressable market is broader than mobile phones — IoT devices already outnumber mobile subscribers globally and will keep growing to include drones, robots, vehicles, and tractors — which is why Amazon's entry validates rather than shrinks the opportunity.

He flags that Amazon's N53 spectrum for private networks (roughly 11 MHz, power-limited) can be used for either MSS or terrestrial use, raising a possible synergy where Amazon could sell home routers using Amazon-only spectrum for better in-home service.

He explains AST has been quiet because it's waiting for a successful Blue Origin New Glenn static fire before announcing a launch date, calling it 'foolish' to hype up a specific date and then have the static fire fail or need to be redone.

Asked whether early-stage, high-potential companies get acquired on future rather than current value, he says yes, drawing a biotech analogy where companies with no revenue get acquired for billions based on Phase 2/3 trial potential.

Asked if AST is acquirable given its valuation, he says it's technically acquirable but he doesn't think the company is selling, since Abel Avellan is the controlling shareholder and sees more value in continuing to build the company out.

Asked about the timing of the Amazon-Globalstar announcement coinciding with AST's own satellite awaiting launch atop a Blue Origin rocket, he thinks the timing is coincidental, noting Blue Origin is a separate company from Amazon (though related).

Asked what Amazon could realistically do commercially by 2028 without MNO partners, he speculates on options like a paid add-on for Apple device owners, bundling with Amazon Prime, or a roaming-style network for coverage outside MNO terrestrial footprints — while questioning whether AT&T/Verizon would allow that and what specific rights Apple retains (e.g., whether Apple still owns 85% of the network or gave that up for a service agreement, and what recourse Apple has if Amazon underdelivers).

He views the deal as a net negative for MDA Space (builder of Globalstar's Aurora satellite platform), since Globalstar — having already lost EchoStar as a prospective buyer — is now likely to be phased out for an Amazon-built satellite, leaving Aurora without its anchor customer; he notes MDA Space last traded around $32.98 and says he 'might even look at shorting' the stock.

Asked if this sparks an 'arms race' among the remaining Mag 7 to acquire AST, he thinks it raises strategic conversations and could prompt inbound calls to Abel Avellan about partnership, investment, or acquisition in coming quarters, but reiterates he doesn't think Abel is a seller.

Asked if AST is 'going to be crushed,' he says no — MNOs will be 'very worried,' not pleased, about Amazon and Apple entering the market, which increases the importance of AST succeeding as their independent alternative.

Asked if Amazon is 'now a space play,' he says partially — Amazon is a massive conglomerate (e-commerce, video/content, AWS) where space/LEO is a growing but still small piece.

On Amazon's LEO execution timeline, he wouldn't be surprised if D2D entry slips well past 2028 toward 2030, citing reports that Amazon's current-generation LEO satellites have issues and may need to be retired/replaced, even as Amazon must keep deploying satellites to meet FCC constellation deployment deadlines or risk losing its license.

Closing thought: he believes the companies wanted to announce this deal before SpaceX goes public, and expects it to bring more institutional attention and dollars into the space sector generally.

This is Blue Origin's third certification flight for New Glenn. Kook hopes it 'upends' a bearish thesis he's seen circulating that AST SpaceMobile 'has a Blue Origin problem'; instead he frames it as an upside opportunity.

If New Glenn succeeds, AST SpaceMobile becomes anchor customer of a highly capable launch vehicle while still using SpaceX, and is also expected to diversify into another heavy launch vehicle not yet named — possibly Ariane, or possibly a Japanese rocket.

Blue Origin had a tank explode during pressure testing last week, blowing off a siding door; Kook says this is a known type of testing incident, does not expect it to impact New Glenn 3, and believes it may relate to a much later vehicle (New Glenn 4 through 8, possibly 9 — he wasn't sure and said he needed to research further).

Blue Origin has filed initial documents to build a new launchpad, which Kook reads as further evidence the company is building for scale; he expects the market may (incorrectly, in his view) start treating ASTS stock as a loose derivative of Blue Origin's success given it is a major customer.

Kook says recent launch delays have been attributable to AST SpaceMobile satellite readiness, not launch-vehicle issues, and that reschedule fees are paid as needed under the launch contracts (which are not detailed in an 8-K to his knowledge).

Closing the episode, Kook says all eyes are on New Glenn this week: hot-fire first, then launch. He notes Blue Origin is 2-for-2 in reaching orbit and 1-for-2 in landing the booster on prior flights, and is hoping for 3-for-3 (orbit) and 2-for-3 or better (landing) on this flight given the heavy incentive to succeed on this certification flight.

The community reconnaissance effort ('Space Mob') photographed a shipping container en route to Midland, which Kook views as a positive sign since container movement can indicate satellite shipments.

Kook argues this demonstrates how a best-in-class operator's production/launch cadence can go from near-zero to a regular monthly (or faster) cadence once early engineering challenges are solved, and believes AST SpaceMobile is at a similar tipping point — framing recent delays as normal 'new things' engineering resolution (composite/stacking issues) rather than a red flag.

Kook cites a chart from community member Katsy showing the AST SpaceMobile subreddit's subscriber count correlating closely with the stock price, and speculates the Reddit community could eventually reach 200,000 to 400,000 members.

Kook says he believes the space secular theme is still in its early discovery phase, and that finding a clear winner in a large secular theme (rather than niche/illiquid trades) is his preferred way to generate strong stock returns, tying liquidity and price discovery to broader investor discovery of the story.

Kook highlights Google as a strategic investor in AST SpaceMobile, drawing a comparison to Google's early investment in SpaceX (both plotted on a log-scale chart given how much value each company created), and suggests Google could ultimately be a strategic acquirer or at least wants a 'front row seat' to the business.

Kook frames both Google and Meta as having 'missed the boat' on space; unlike Google, Meta is still run by founder/owner-operator Mark Zuckerberg, who bet heavily on VR and, in Kook's view, is now making up for lost time in space by engaging with AST SpaceMobile.

Kook connects this to Meta's need to find new growth for WhatsApp, particularly in emerging markets, where WhatsApp's asynchronous message-queuing works better on unreliable connections and where the platform is foundational to commerce.

Kook speculates Meta may want to move closer to the infrastructure layer (as it has previously done via subsea cable investments and its Jio partnership in India, some of which 'haven't gone anywhere'), possibly to open new opportunities alongside AST SpaceMobile's expanding spectrum access — but stresses 'we just don't know' whether a specific deal will result.

Kook emphasizes Vinod is an operational leader (not merely a corporate-development/financial evaluator) actively assessing whether the technology works, which he views as a more meaningful form of validation than a purely financial investment.

Kook cites a quote (from the same or a related article) that soldiers must choose between carrying bullets, MREs, or communications gear when packing, and argues that shrinking communications equipment (via unmodified-handset connectivity) frees soldiers to carry more ammunition and food.

Kook says the Department of Defense/'Department of War' increasingly views LEO satellites as strategic, wanting to deploy next-generation commercial technologies on the battlefield in a hardened but still fundamentally commercial form.

Citing commentary from Mario Nawfal, Kook argues the costliest part of the Iran conflict wasn't fuel but the destruction of hard-to-replace US assets — radar systems (roughly $500 million each) struck in Jordan and Qatar, and an early-warning aircraft (roughly $700 million) struck in Saudi Arabia — arguing Iran correctly targeted radar to degrade broader warfighting capability.

Kook concludes that a resilient, multilayered, hard-to-destroy radar/communications architecture is the logical response, and believes LEO satellites (with AST SpaceMobile positioned to benefit) will be part of that solution as a 'burgeoning secular theme,' though he says he doesn't know the size of this specific opportunity.

Kook frames this hire as evidence the defense opportunity is real (companies don't hire against opportunities that don't exist) and references his past practice of tracking AST SpaceMobile's hiring (a past 'Meet the Team' thread) as a way of building investment conviction through personnel quality.

Citing an article found by community member Kevin Shen about New Zealand carrier One NZ, Kook highlights that AST SpaceMobile's 'bent pipe' architecture (reflecting signals between handset and ground base station without processing user data) preserves data sovereignty, since data never leaves the host country's jurisdiction — a selling point versus SpaceX, which Kook says is viewed as a 'foreign entity' by countries like New Zealand.

Citing an article by industry consultant Joe Madden (found by community member Kevin Chen), Kook says Madden argues that if AST SpaceMobile can achieve strong indoor performance, the size of the total addressable revenue pool for the direct-to-device opportunity could double or triple.

Citing community member Katsy's analysis, Kook explains MNOs spent heavily on C-band spectrum but have struggled to deploy it due to interference with aircraft avionics near airports, requiring years of avionics retrofits to resolve.

Kook draws a parallel to the Ligado spectrum situation, where ground-based deployment caused GPS interference, but satellite-based deployment (with the signal source far from the ground) avoids that interference — suggesting MNOs could similarly light up underused C-band-type spectrum via satellite much faster than via terrestrial buildout.

Kook says FCC filings show SpaceX repeatedly characterizing AST SpaceMobile as a competitive threat, especially regarding global 2 GHz spectrum, which he interprets as a sign SpaceX feels vulnerable, though he says he doesn't take the filings very seriously as substantive risk.

Citing an account called 'Lost Fundamentals,' Kook says Starlink's days-to-add-a-million-net-new-customers metric troughed at 47 days during a promotional period and has since leveled off at a high but no-longer-accelerating rate, suggesting SpaceX's consumer growth is running into the law of large numbers even as the company remains hugely successful overall.

Kook speculates Elon Musk may shift his public narrative toward AI data centers rather than direct-to-cell, since SpaceX lacks MNO partnerships to showcase for the D2C story.

Kook raises the possibility of a dedicated 'SpaceX phone,' partly motivated by Grok's planned WhatsApp competitor (which Kook says he's interested in trying because it reportedly wouldn't require a phone number), and frames a hypothetical SpaceX-vs-MNOs battle as one where AST SpaceMobile would effectively be 'arms dealer' to the MNO side.

Kook says if the FCC does loosen the power-flux-density limits (citing figures of roughly -120 to -110 dBW/m2, describing this as a logarithmic and thus large increase in allowed power), he believes AST SpaceMobile — due to its superior beamforming — would be the primary net beneficiary, since its indoor performance would go from 'really good to astounding.'

Kook notes spectrum holders Grain Management (which controls certain T-Mobile-related 800 MHz spectrum) and Anterix are both seeking authorization to use their spectrum for direct-to-device service, framing this as more spectrum finding its way toward satellite-enabled deployment, a trend he credits Brendan Carr with encouraging.

Kook raises a speculative 'Flippening' scenario — whether T-Mobile might eventually contract with AST SpaceMobile (in addition to, or instead of, SpaceX) — citing hints in FCC documents suggesting such analysis is occurring, but calls it low-probability given how sensational the idea sounds, while saying he's watching it closely and jokingly suggests a prediction market on the outcome.

Informal launch-tracking websites are now pointing to a Blue Origin New Glenn launch date of April 15th or 16th, 2026 for BlueBird 7; this has been pushed back from an earlier expected date because Blue Origin's booster refurbishment of 'Never Tell Me the Odds' (its first-ever booster reuse) took longer than expected due to some first-time mistakes the company is learning from.

Once the company has full confidence in the launch date, it will announce a formal date and a signup process for an official viewing event; those without an invitation can still watch from vantage points within several miles of the launchpad.

Extrapolating from the batch timeline, Anpanman guesses the first Falcon 9 launch of the next satellite batch could occur around May 2026, with a second Falcon 9 launch potentially later in May or in June; he notes informal launch-tracking sites have begun placeholder listings for these two Falcon 9 launches.

AST previously ran into structural integrity issues with satellite composite 'rings' during stacking tests -- under vertical, horizontal, and angled pressure the initial round of composites did not perform as needed, so engineers modified the rings with additional reinforcements, which then passed testing; once rings passed, folded Micron modules and other payload parts were installed and put through environmental testing.

Anpanman's understanding is that the ring-stacking issue was solved around late February 2026 by reinforcing rings already on hand, and that the company is now changing the design to build reinforcement in at the point of production so future rings won't need retrofitting.

The first next-generation satellite batch is on target to be shipped/delivered in April 2026 (Anpanman is not certain which); Reddit community due diligence spotted a shipping container en route to Midland, and several containers are now on-site apparently ready to receive BlueBirds 8, 9, 10 (exact batch size unconfirmed), suggesting shipment is imminent within one to two weeks.

Anpanman estimates roughly a 20-40% probability that T-Mobile eventually joins AT&T and Verizon as an AST SpaceMobile partner, calling it a low-probability but non-zero scenario.

Bringing in Verizon validated AST's technology and lowered its cost of capital (from raising at $5-6 to the $30s and now $90s per share), while giving AT&T a partner whose success elsewhere (Asia, Europe, Latin America, Middle East, Africa) helps amortize costs supporting the US service both companies have board seats and equity in.

Vodafone, Rakuten, and AT&T embedded their own engineers with AST since around the summer of 2018 to help build the seamless MNO-network integration, which Anpanman contrasts with Starlink's separate roaming-network approach that doesn't integrate into an MNO's core network.

T-Mobile's exclusivity with Starlink runs through roughly July 2026; the executive (Mike Sievert) who signed that deal is no longer T-Mobile's CEO, and Anpanman argues the decision favored short-term marketing over long-term strategy, since Starlink's fixed-wireless/5G-home business also directly competes with T-Mobile.

Deutsche Telekom (T-Mobile's parent) has publicly stated it is wary of Starlink ('dancing with the tiger') and is open to working with other satellite providers, which Anpanman sees as an opening for eventual AST cooperation; he also notes the irony of Starlink's regulatory counsel David Goldman criticizing foreign influence over AST when T-Mobile itself is owned by Germany's Deutsche Telekom.

Starlink is simultaneously bidding in the upcoming AWS-3 mid-band spectrum auction against AT&T, Verizon, and T-Mobile, which Anpanman reads as evidence Starlink ultimately intends to compete directly with MNOs (including its own T-Satellite partner) rather than remain purely a satellite backhaul/roaming vendor.

One path to T-Mobile joining: if AT&T and Verizon refuse T-Mobile access, T-Mobile could retaliate by helping Starlink become a full MVNO on its network, which would threaten AT&T/Verizon enough that they might instead choose to admit T-Mobile to avoid a stronger four-way Starlink-enabled competitor.

A second path: if the FCC ruled that emergency (E911) access requires AST's network be opened to T-Mobile because Starlink lacks native voice calling, T-Mobile could be forced in as a customer -- though Anpanman thinks this is unlikely under current FCC Chairman Brendan Carr, a known SpaceX supporter, though possible under a future administration.

If T-Mobile did join AT&T and Verizon on AST SpaceMobile, it would create a de facto monopoly over the most profitable wireless market in the world; Anpanman won't estimate a specific price target but calls it a potential 'game over' scenario for the stock, with the T-Mobile exclusivity expiration around June/July 2026 as the earliest plausible timing window.

Anpanman notes the company has hired engineers from SpaceX, Boeing, Lockheed Martin, and other aerospace primes (per conversations with a headhunter a few months prior), and that AST has successfully built, tested, shipped, launched, deployed, and operated 7 satellites total (BlueWalker 3 plus the five Block 1 BlueBirds and BlueBird 6) with a 100% success rate, undercutting claims the company overlooked basic engineering issues like heat dissipation or fairing fit.

Anpanman names consultant Stuart Taylor as a recent, vocal AST critic who never mentioned the company on social media in the prior five years until November 2025, when his first post specifically defended Viasat's position in the Ligado dispute; Anpanman believes Taylor is a paid consultant for Viasat and possibly Iridium, both of which he says are most threatened by AST.

Anpanman criticizes analyst Tim Farrar as a paid consultant for Globalstar whose track record has been consistently negative on AST SpaceMobile, Starlink, and SpaceX and, in Anpanman's view, has generated negative returns for anyone following his calls; he contrasts Farrar's media-quoted 'expert' status with what Anpanman calls a lack of real predictive value.

Viasat (which Anpanman calls 'Viachat'), led by CEO Mark Dankberg, is described as financially distressed with roughly $6 billion in debt and losing market share in its core in-flight/broadband business to Starlink; Anpanman says Viasat has used legal challenges ('lawfare') against the AST-Ligado spectrum settlement, breaching a bankruptcy-court cooperation agreement to try to frustrate regulatory approval, with judges rejecting Viasat's positions and Viasat reportedly continuing to appeal.

Anpanman frames Viasat's and EchoStar's high share prices despite operational distress as reflecting investors betting on eventual spectrum-asset monetization (companies 'worth more dead than alive') rather than belief in their direct-to-device strategies; he views the roughly $420 million AST-to-Ligado payment (which flowed partly to Viasat) as an ironic lifeline funding the very party now litigating against AST.

Kook describes watching news of the rescue of a pilot shot down (in what he implies is Iran) and connects it to AST capabilities studied previously, including one he refers to as 'MOUS' (garbled/uncertain term), related to transmitting below the 'noise floor' — as he recalls being told by Michael Pollack at AST, a satellite with very high receive sensitivity/power can pick up a very low-power transmission that looks like background noise to anyone else listening, allowing covert location signaling.

Kook says AST has also demonstrated encrypted 'up-down' transmissions allowing direct warship-to-warship communication, and believes a mobile land radio could do something similar, potentially transmitting an encrypted waveform directly to a rescuing vessel.

Kook explicitly says he doesn't know how difficult today's rescue actually was for the pilot (e.g., whether it required only a brief 'chirp' before other assets took over) and wonders whether future AST technology could allow more continuous communication and shorten the 'loop to safety' for downed personnel — framed as an open, unanswered question.

Kook says AST is next 'getting ready to release [BlueBird 6] for customer use' and speculates — explicitly labeling it speculation on his part — that the customer being referenced is the US government, and that this release could be a milestone that unlocks additional funding and government contracts.

Kook argues the FCC docket is already 'replete with evidence' of a coming FirstNet contract, making this tweet a public confirmation rather than new information for close followers.

Kook cites Starship, Artemis, and New Glenn all being active in the same period as evidence of a broader 'new space economy' moment, and argues this decade-long 'billionaire hobby' phase (Musk and Bezos) is now becoming visible to the broader market, comparing it to companies like Google, Microsoft, and Meta lacking an equivalent owner-operator-driven space bet.

Kook says SpaceX has now filed for its IPO, and argues that while some worry this could pull roughly $30 billion of capital out of the market, that capital would come from large institutional accounts rather than from small-cap ASTS holders, so the dominant effect will be drawing broad new attention and capital to the space sector generally, benefiting ASTS.

Kook frames his long-standing thesis as 'SpaceX is Facebook Desktop, but can they transition to mobile?' — arguing AST SpaceMobile is positioned as 'Facebook Mobile' to SpaceX's fixed-broadband ('desktop') Starlink business.

Citing a tweet from @AlexFromBabylon referencing a PCMag article, Kook notes that SpaceX's growth curve is 'starting to flatten' and that the article quotes SpaceX CEO Gwynne Shotwell suggesting broadband-focused Starlink 'might be nearing its ceiling' — Kook flags this as a notable, uncertain-sourced claim given it's attributed to SpaceX's own CEO rather than a critic.

Kook predicts SpaceX will pivot its public narrative toward an 'AI data center' pitch (talking about a million satellites, etc.) because it is a more exciting story than direct-to-cell, while betting that other financial analysts will realize AST SpaceMobile has quietly dominated the more exciting LEO-telecom opportunity.

Kook reiterates his 'constellation constipation' metaphor — arrays and satellite buses are being built and the company has worked through composite/stacking engineering issues — arguing the manufacturing pipeline is about to start 'spitting out satellites' as a major operational unlock, though not the last one still needed (e.g., ARPU and competition questions remain).

Kook argues that bears have repeatedly had to 'shift the goalposts' to decreasingly important questions (e.g., debating whether ARPU is $10 vs. $15) at increasingly higher stock prices, after earlier existential bear theses (FCC would never approve it, technology wouldn't work) were disproven.

Kook says ASTS stock fell to roughly $79 at one point during the week before closing at $92, which he attributes to broader market volatility tied to the Iran situation rather than company-specific news; he personally expects the Iran conflict to escalate into a ground war but argues it is 'pretty silly' to trade ASTS based on that geopolitical timeline.

Kook characterizes the ruling as bad for Viasat but essentially neutral for AST, since AST is not seeking anything beyond the deal it already has, and says he still expects the Ligado transaction to close and receive FCC approval.

As a hypothetical, Kook says that if AST SpaceMobile were to acquire Viasat outright, he would view it as a smart move given Viasat's global S-band holdings — explicitly framed as speculation, not something he expects.

Kook lays out a 'Net Asset Value' (NAV) investment framework: as AST secures more spectrum (Ligado L-band, S-band ITU rights, etc.), analysts will apply a 'megahertz-per-pop' valuation to that spectrum, creating a downside floor for the stock — a thesis Kook says was reinforced by how Wall Street ultimately valued EchoStar's spectrum holdings in a separate situation.

Kook mentions Grain Spectrum, a private-equity-backed vehicle that purchased spectrum from T-Mobile, is now asking the FCC for flexibility to lease or sell that spectrum to satellite direct-to-device operators, which he says would presumably include AST SpaceMobile; he also notes SiriusXM repurposing its own spectrum as a parallel industry trend.

Kook references a Bloomberg/WSJ article reporting AT&T pledging up to $2 billion to upgrade cellular networks as part of an arrangement with the FCC that reportedly included a comment about faster approvals in return, and wonders aloud whether AST SpaceMobile's FirstNet-related regulatory approvals could be connected to these broader negotiations, while noting this is unconfirmed speculation on his part.

Kook notes FCC Chairman Brendan Carr posted a photo from West Texas referencing the FCC's 'Build America' agenda, and speculates — while explicitly noting there was no confirmation — that the visit's timing could relate to AST SpaceMobile and upcoming SCS approval activity.

Kook says New Glenn 3 is now slotted for around April 14th or 15th, 2026, by his understanding, and jokes he might be able to attend if it slips a day.

Kook says the company is 'very, very close to Batch 1' following FM2, and expects the market to quickly shift focus from FM2's launch to Batch 1 developments as the resolution of 'constellation constipation.'

Anpanman argues it probably doesn't make sense for SpaceX to buy Globalstar right now given its upcoming IPO and its effort to close the EchoStar spectrum deal, which he says is targeted to close around the end of summer 2027 — layering on another acquisition could complicate the FCC regulatory process and raise antitrust concerns, especially with rumors SpaceX might also be interested in Iridium.

Amazon could be interested in Globalstar largely for that 11.5 MHz of terrestrial spectrum, separate from any satellite-service ambitions.

Amazon likely doesn't want to build a full retail mobile network requiring low-band (600-900 MHz) spectrum to match MNO-grade service; it might instead become a virtual network operator partnering with Verizon or AT&T, or partner with AST SpaceMobile or Bell Canada to 'light up' spectrum it acquires via Globalstar.

Anpanman speculates Amazon could eventually build its own direct-to-device/IoT constellation (not necessarily mobile-phone focused, but 3GPP compatible) once Starlink's fixed-wireless buildout matures, potentially serving military use cases too — spectrum optionality is valuable regardless of near-term plans.

MNOs are wary of Amazon owning the customer relationship (similar to their wariness of SpaceX), making a direct Amazon-MNO tie-up for this service less likely; Amazon is also reportedly contemplating new AI devices and possibly another mobile phone (after its earlier Fire Phone), adding complexity to Apple's calculus if it allows Amazon to acquire Globalstar.

A defensive motive for Amazon could be pre-empting a scenario where SpaceX buys Globalstar instead, even though Globalstar isn't losing large amounts of money.

Anpanman notes the Globalstar-side leaks (a year after the original spring rumor) look like classic sell-side tactics from bankers/lawyers to pressure a deal forward or draw out other bidders (e.g., SpaceX, Google).

Apple's structuring makes clear it doesn't want to own Globalstar outright or become an FCC-regulated service provider competing with its own MNO customers.

Because Globalstar's roadmap can't match AST SpaceMobile's or Starlink's broadband capability, Anpanman thinks Apple may be looking to exit the relationship, drawing an analogy to Apple's AI strategy of letting others build the technology while Apple acts as gatekeeper.

Anpanman notes it's paradoxical that consultants at industry events like SAT Show who dismissed direct-to-device as a niche market one or two years ago are now the ones spreading rumors that SpaceX, Amazon and others are racing into the space.

SpaceX is reportedly spending over $20 billion on spectrum (referencing the EchoStar deal), and Amazon is in talks to acquire Globalstar for $10 billion-plus; Iridium is also mentioned as a possible acquisition target, though Anpanman is unsure if that happens, noting Iridium CEO Matt Desch discussed leasing out the company's spectrum on its last earnings call.

Legacy satellite players like Viasat and SES, who dismissed direct-to-device for years, are now touting their own direct-to-device strategies.

If Amazon buys Globalstar, Anpanman suggests it could spur further strategic moves, noting AST SpaceMobile is already testing with Apple and Meta and has an existing partnership with Google — an Amazon deal could make AST more strategically interesting to other big tech players, or Amazon could even approach AST to use its satellites to light up newly acquired spectrum.

Anpanman thinks the market may be misreading MDA Space's stock rally (up Friday) on the Amazon-Globalstar news; he argues Amazon already has satellite-manufacturing scale (hundreds, eventually thousands, of LEO satellites) and could bring Globalstar's satellite design/production in-house, putting MDA Space's future 50-plus satellite Aurora order at risk.

Anpanman says he caught up on 'Kook's Space' and agrees with Kook's point that AST's production challenges are inherently difficult, not a sign that Abel Avellan or management are slow-rolling — the company prioritizes doing things right the first time.

AST's satellites use composite 'rings' (nicknamed 'tuna cans') to save weight for launch; composites are very difficult and expensive to work with but offer superior weight savings and strength once solved, compared to alternatives like steel or aluminum (referencing Elon Musk's recent comments on Starship material tradeoffs).

An initial batch of composite rings tested by AST were found not to be structurally strong enough, which forced the company back to the drawing board on the ring/'stacking' design — the issue being that stacked satellites in a rocket fairing must withstand tremendous vertical load (the bottom satellite supporting multiple satellites above it) plus horizontal/lateral loads during launch.

Anpanman says, based on his understanding, AST solved the stacking issue sometime in February 2026 by reinforcing the rings with tubes (composite or metal) so each ring can bear the load of the satellites stacked above it.

As part of the fix, future rings starting around BlueBird 13 will have the reinforcement designed into the composite from the source, rather than retrofitted with added tubes.

Anpanman believes AST has already built enough 'Microns' (satellite payload modules) for approximately 30 satellites, and with the stacking issue solved, remaining rings can now be used; the company still needs to integrate Microns and payloads into the ring structures and complete testing.

Anpanman says the company is on target to complete its first new batch of satellites by the end of April, after which they'll ship to Florida for a Falcon 9 launch, with another batch following shortly after.

The Blue Origin New Glenn 3 launch — carrying a satellite for AST's refurbish-and-relaunch demonstration — has been delayed and is now targeted for around April 12-14; Anpanman says the delay is out of AST's hands and reflects Blue Origin wanting to be careful given the mission's importance in proving booster refurbishment/relaunch capability.

Blue Origin has reportedly obtained an STA (special temporary authority) for New Glenn missions 4, 5, and possibly 6; Anpanman estimates that even two of those missions carrying 6-8 AST satellites each would go a long way toward the 45-satellite 2026 target.

Anpanman believes AST's guidance of reaching 6 satellites-per-month manufacturing cadence will likely be reaffirmed by the end of Q2 2026, even if the company is only at 4 or 5 satellites per month before eventually reaching 6, given the delays experienced.

Anpanman frames the surge in Space Force spending as underscoring the strategic importance of space for the US, benefiting dual-use companies with both commercial and government/defense applications, including AST SpaceMobile, Rocket Lab, Planet Labs, and BlackSky.

Anpanman cites a comment from Michael Pollack at a presentation (at SAT Show) that ongoing conflicts in Iran and Venezuela highlight the importance of what AST SpaceMobile is doing, without Pollack specifying exactly what he meant.

Kook says he only uses this strategy around his untouched core long-term ASTS position, describes ASTS trading like 'bull riding' — long stretches of nothing followed by explosive moves — and says he tries to time Torques around periods of rock-bottom sentiment (citing Twitter sentiment, e.g., people 'harikari-ing' their technical-analysis calls) rather than doing it constantly.

Kook says he plans to avoid covered calls heading into the next few months because he believes ASTS is 'still behind the gate' before a big move, and covered calls have hurt him badly in the past when the stock ran hard.

Kook says the prior week's space-sector rally (stocks up 15-20% as a basket) was driven by a rumored SpaceX S-1 filing that, as far as he could tell, did not actually happen, followed by a sharp Thursday/Friday selloff tied to Iran-war headlines and quarter-end CTA/technical-level selling.

Kook says he personally added exposure into the weakness using his usual Torque strategy, and expects sentiment to flip in April as a new quarter begins, though he notes he has been wrong on this call before.

Kook speculates, based on observed Marine unit movements near where he lives and military friends becoming suddenly unavailable, that a U.S. ground invasion related to the Iran conflict may be imminent, and guesses the broader market could bottom once that invasion is confirmed as a 'peace dividend' trade — explicitly framed as his own guess.

Kook revisits this later, noting he thinks the SpaceX-IPO-anticipation rally caused a 'hangover' selloff Thursday/Friday and that other space stocks (e.g., cited as up roughly 20% and 18% mid-week) were part of the same hot-money basket trade, and repeats his belief that a confirmed ground invasion could mark the market bottom.

Kook notes a briefly shown camera angle in the Vodafone Ireland video revealed a signal-to-noise-ratio / power-flux-density graphic, which community accounts (Tomster000 running AI-assisted analysis, later amplified by Katzi, with bonsai03 possibly the original source) used to confirm strong in-band gain with a sharp rolloff (no interference 'shoulders') in adjacent channels — validating the beamforming technology underlying Bluebird/BlueWalker 3.

Kook says he hopes AST will start showing progress toward a Batch 1 satellite shipment by the end of April, which he frames as opening the door to the broader constellation deployment, but explicitly says this is his own hope rather than confirmed guidance.

Kook notes historically ASTS and other space stocks trade well heading into launch events, but cautions investors shouldn't own the stock just for a launch-driven run-up since that could disappoint; he separately notes an Artemis launch is expected in 2-3 days and a Falcon Heavy launch is also upcoming, adding to near-term space-sector media attention.

Kook jokes that some named milestones for Scott Wisniewski and CFO/Chief Legal Officer Andrew Johnson (e.g., completing the ATM program or a large convertible bond) are not necessarily wins for shareholders even though they trigger executive compensation, whereas COO Shanti Gupta's milestones (tied to build progress like FM1/FM2 or Batch 1 advancement) and Abel Avellan's (technical, commercial, and regulatory progress) are framed as more directly aligned with company progress.

Kook argues technical guidance misses stem from the difficulty of engineering next-generation satellites with new composite materials for the first time, not from a lack of effort or intent to mislead, and says he'd rather the company delay than launch a satellite with unresolved technical risk.

Kook compares SpaceX to a 'pet tiger' — a partner that is smarter and more dominant than its counterparties and will act in its own interest the moment it no longer needs them — arguing SpaceX's first principle is vertical integration and owning the customer, not being a carrier-neutral infrastructure provider.

Kook cites a post (flagged by Anpanman, originally from Mike Dono) noting SpaceX is bidding against its own MNO partner T-Mobile for AWS-3 spectrum, which he says illustrates why MNOs shouldn't fully trust SpaceX as a long-term partner.

Kook speculates Elon Musk could eventually launch a SpaceX-branded phone/MNO-style service that would worry incumbent carriers like AT&T and Verizon, but personally guesses Musk will avoid the low-return, capital-intensive MNO business in favor of higher-margin 'greenfield' opportunities like orbital AI.

Kook highlights an account ('One More Smith') noting Grain Management LLC holds a nationwide block of 800 MHz spectrum and is petitioning the FCC to free it up for direct-to-device services, with some speculation this spectrum could eventually go to ASTS; Kook says this shouldn't move the stock on its own but is another data point supporting his 'spectrum land grab' thesis.

Kook restates his long-running (partly joking, but increasingly sincere) view that ASTS is positioning itself to become a global spectrum-holding company and could ultimately become one of the world's most valuable companies.

Kook cites a New Zealand Network Operators Group presentation (from account NPMN) quoting: 'If you dial 911 ... and you're on Starlink, we believe the call will fail. Your mobile device will then try other carriers and eventually hit the AST SpaceMobile network and produce the emergency call' — used as evidence of a network-uptime/reliability advantage for AST over Starlink.

Kook discusses Europe's sovereign satellite effort (Iris²), citing Eutelsat stating at Mobile World Congress that it lacked the financial means to build a D2D-capable constellation on its own, and argues Europe's fallback options are effectively AST SpaceMobile or Starlink; he expresses optimism about the Vodafone JV (now called Satellite Connect Europe) and credits community contributor Peter Lindmark for detailed tracking of European developments.

Kook says the FCC's Supplemental Coverage from Space (SCS) docket / market access award is showing late-stage meeting activity that suggests an FCC decision could come 'in the next couple of weeks,' while explicitly caveating that he has guessed this timing before and could be wrong.

Kook discusses recent Iran conflict headlines — Iran reportedly destroying an early-warning AWACS aircraft on a Saudi Arabian airbase and hitting ground-based radar systems and a U.S. embassy — as evidence adversaries are targeting radar/early-warning infrastructure, and argues LEO satellite constellations like AST's offer a resilient alternative approach to AWACS/ground radar for the U.S. military.

Kook notes continued momentum in the Golden Dome missile-defense program (which he sizes at roughly $175-185 billion), including added air/moving-target-indicator sensor capacity and space-based communications architecture, and says he expects (but doubts AST will win all of) some of these award opportunities.

Kook discusses a direct-to-cow tracking use case (solar-powered smart livestock collars, priced around $5-8/month, likely in New Zealand dollars) raised by industry contact 'Arne,' as one example of many IoT applications for AST's network.

Kook discusses an OnStar-style vehicle emergency-connectivity use case where the average budgeted data usage for a vehicle's entire life was cited as roughly 5 megabytes, illustrating how AST can charge a recurring fee (likened to insurance) for capacity that is rarely actually used, allowing the network to be oversold well beyond his own conservative 30%-utilization assumption in his personal unit-economics model.

Kook reiterates his personal (self-described non-analyst, non-price-target) unit-economics framework — estimating data output per satellite, pricing that data against capex — which leads him to believe each satellite is highly profitable, and says the ability to oversell capacity via IoT/low-usage applications likely makes his own model's revenue estimates too conservative.

Kook references a tweet from Ben Jowanda walking through high-level math for why ASTS could become a trillion-dollar company, and says he finds this type of top-down, simple-math analysis valuable alongside detailed subject-matter research.

Kook compares current ASTS valuation skepticism to skepticism he witnessed around Google's IPO, where value investors argued Google's market cap was absurd relative to buying baskets of commodity/industrial stocks, and says those critics missed Google's nonlinear platform/aggregator dynamics — drawing a parallel to why he believes ASTS bears are similarly missing the bigger picture.

Kook mentions he is separately researching a company called Merlin (aviation AI, dealing with air-traffic-control natural-language processing without reliable internet connectivity) purely as an educational aside unrelated to ASTS, saying its share price could plausibly go to $5 or to $50 and that he doesn't yet understand its business model or milestone path well enough to have a view.

Wisniewski argues combining backwards-compatible 3GPP partner spectrum access with AST's own owned spectrum is "the right strategy for the industry" going forward.

Demand for connectivity appears consistent across markets, whether from consumers seeking convenience, underserved users willing to spend disposable income on connectivity, or people wanting connectivity as both a marketing draw and a genuine network solve; AST will prioritize the largest markets first.

Spitballing, Anpanman guesses New Glenn 3 (carrying BlueBird 7) will launch in the first or second week of April, at latest, and that this timing could coincide with the first one or two batches of BlueBird 8-and-beyond satellites being shipped to Cape Canaveral, making April a busy month.

The key thing to watch is when New Glenn 3 is rolled out to the launch pad for a static-fire test; a firm launch date should follow within days to at most a week after that. Anpanman advises anyone planning to travel to book only refundable flights and refundable hotel reservations since the schedule can still move.

Anpanman's understanding (his own inference, not confirmed by the company) is that the 'stacking problem' refers to the composite rings ('donuts') that house each satellite's internals: once fully loaded with microns, batteries and processing hardware, the bottom rings in a stack must be strong enough to support all the rings above them both vertically and sideways (since rockets are stacked horizontally before being raised vertical), requiring extensive multi-angle load testing.

Anpanman believes the company has now solved the stacking issue and is integrating the payload (microns, processing, batteries) into the composite rings, with testing and shipment of the first two batches expected in April.

Anpanman is fairly certain, based on work done by the SpaceMob community, that the first two batches of three satellites (BlueBird 8 and beyond) will launch on Falcon 9 rather than New Glenn, and guesses the first shipment will occur sometime mid-to-late April.

Anpanman frames the composite-material investment as part of AST's competitive moat: the company has been hiring composite specialists in production and design over recent months, and he is not aware of other satellite manufacturers building at this scale using composites rather than metallic shells (he notes he isn't sure about K2's approach).

Anpanman estimates the company has built a backlog of microns sufficient for roughly 20-30 satellites (he is not certain of the exact disclosed figure), meaning microns are not the bottleneck -- the composite ring production is.

He estimates the composite rings reduce satellite mass from roughly 6,000 kilograms (as with FM1/FM2, i.e. BlueBird 6 and 7) down to around 4,000 kilograms.

For the 2026 manifest, Anpanman estimates something on the order of 4-5 Falcon 9 launches (possibly more) plus New Glenn launches; he notes STAs have been filed for New Glenn 4, 5 and 6, some of which will be dedicated AST launches.

AST has publicly disclosed signing an additional heavy launch vehicle provider; Anpanman guesses it is likely Mitsubishi Heavy, though he floats Ariane and/or United Launch Alliance as other possibilities, noting that community member 'Katya'/'Kasey' has pointed out that only Arianespace (launching from French Guiana) could support AST's planned equatorial orbital shell.

Referencing a recent O2 disclosure, Anpanman says Starlink's Direct-to-Cell service delivers about 4 megabits per second per cell and can only project 40 cell beams per satellite, which he characterizes as far behind AST's underlying technology even though Starlink was first to offer a (minimally viable) commercial service.

Anpanman notes the space sector has outperformed the broader market (versus the 'Mag 7') year-to-date, and while he can't guarantee it continues, he believes it will.

Anpanman expects SpaceX to file an S-1 IPO prospectus, confidentially at first and later publicly, and believes SpaceX is planning to go public in June or July, which he expects to be a major catalyst bringing institutional awareness and capital into pure-play space companies, contrasting today's investable space sector with the past when only diversified primes like Lockheed Martin and Boeing were options.

Anpanman says the company feels good about potentially receiving a Golden Dome-related award in the second quarter, and mentions he has shared an updated, long and growing catalyst list with the community.

Anpanman cites Michael Pollack, described as AST's head of government, who spoke on a panel at the SAT Show and said the conflicts in Iran and Ukraine have made AST's importance to the government even higher; Anpanman interprets this as suggesting some aspect of AST's service has been used in those theaters, though he was not present when Pollack spoke and frames this as his own inference.

Kook says he is largely ignoring macro volatility (S&P down about 30 bps overnight, reports of Marines heading toward the Strait of Hormuz/Kharg Island amid Iran tensions), viewing such 'macro tempests' as confusing and unproductive to trade around, and reiterates there are 'no nukes in Iran.'

Kook argues that in six months (heading into midterms/back-to-school season), the acute Iran/Strait of Hormuz situation will likely be resolved, and that investors should focus on long-term thinking rather than reacting to short-term geopolitical headlines; he also flags that rising GPS-denial/electronic-warfare awareness should be bullish, not bearish, for defense-adjacent names, noting reports that Steve Feinberg is looking to deploy $200 billion of capital (referred to as 'Deal Team Six').

Kook cites a 'Texas hedge' suggestion he attributes to a follower, framed around a rumored (per Polymarket) $2 trillion Starlink IPO; he argues that if the D2D market is effectively a duopoly between ASTS and SpaceX, and SpaceX/Starlink could IPO at roughly 40x ASTS's price, investors bullish on SpaceX should also buy ASTS to hedge/capture upside if the overall market value 'cuts higher,' analogous to distressed-debt investors buying equity as a hedge in a bankruptcy.

Kook distinguishes SpaceX's business lines: launch services, fixed broadband (core Starlink), and a comparatively small direct-to-consumer (D2C/D2D) toehold. He argues ASTS has one-way optionality to move into SpaceX's fixed-broadband/launch markets over time, whereas SpaceX has more difficulty expanding further in D2D because that model depends on partnering with MNOs (mobile network operators), with EchoStar spectrum cited as one open variable for SpaceX.

Kook notes SpaceX has roughly 3,500 satellites in orbit and ample time to have captured ASTS's prospective customers, but 'the bullet bounced off the armor' — implying SpaceX hasn't meaningfully displaced ASTS's commercial opportunity despite ASTS's launch delays ('constellation constipation'), with Batch 1 satellites now expected to ship in April or May.

Kook draws an analogy to Facebook's early desktop-versus-mobile shift, arguing mobile will prove to be the larger and more important market than fixed broadband, and that ASTS is already 'trouncing the competition in mobile' before commercial service has even started, while the stock isn't priced for that outcome.

Kook highlights a tweet from an account called 'CK Capital' laying out a simplified valuation model: ASTS is pointed toward roughly 5 billion addressable subscribers versus SpaceX's approximately 10 million; assuming 1 billion subscribers at $5/month (implying a 20% attach rate) yields about $60 billion in annual revenue.

Per the same tweet, at a 15x revenue multiple that implies a roughly $900 billion market cap, and at 20x revenue roughly $1.2 trillion, compared with Starlink reportedly trading at about 120x revenue — a multiple Kook says reflects extreme growth expectations rather than a stable long-term valuation metric, drawing a comparison to Snowflake's past ~100x-revenue valuation.

Kook says he doubts CEO Abel Avellan is running a detailed discounted-cash-flow model internally, and instead frames the 'owner's math' as simple: with an estimated 5 billion addressable subscribers, the priority is maximizing service quality and attach rate to capture value, rather than precise spreadsheet modeling.

Blue Origin (founded by Jeff Bezos) has filed for a constellation of roughly 51,000 (Kook says '51.5-6,000') satellites intended to host AI data centers, operating in sun-synchronous orbit (SSO) to stay continuously in daylight; Kook pushes back on skeptics ('Substack bros') who call this uneconomical, noting Blue Origin is putting real capital behind it.

Kook says ASTS, per a post from an account called Katzy, also holds a position/shell in SSO, which he argues could become valuable 'prime real estate' for both military applications and future AI data center use, comparing early orbital-slot claims to historical land grabs (e.g. the Permian Basin, the Bakken) that were valuable to stake out before their value was widely recognized.

Citing an account called Dr. Ollie, Kook argues ASTS's Bluebird satellites are well-positioned as a space-AI platform because of (1) large power generation capacity and (2) solved heat-dissipation/radiative cooling challenges (with patents), noting these thermal engineering problems were previously cited by skeptics as reasons the company might fail, especially given satellites cycling between hot and cold as they pass in and out of sunlight (a problem SSO avoids).

Kook discusses 'Satellite Connect Europe' (which he abbreviates 'SCE'), noting via Peter Lindmark (described as ASTS's 'chief European correspondent on the ground') that more employees are joining and building out this entity, which he frames as a vehicle to capture more MOUs and subscribers in Europe.

Kook notes that, as with AT&T and Verizon in the US, competing European MNOs are willing to share ASTS's infrastructure ('enemies can work together'), and expects ASTS to achieve dominant market share in Europe given its scale economics as a shared backbone.

Kook says Golden Dome program funding was increased by an additional $10 billion to $185 billion 'just even last week,' and expects ASTS to receive additional Golden Dome-related contract awards in the coming quarter (Q2), which he thinks would further validate the company as a bona fide military prime and reinforce the 'Texas hedge' thesis relative to SpaceX.

Kook draws an analogy to Quanta Services stock roughly '5-bagging' after the Biden-era IRA Act directed money into utility/grid infrastructure, arguing government-directed capital flows (like Golden Dome funding) can be a powerful and underappreciated tailwind for a stock, in hindsight regretting not applying that lesson sooner.

Kook describes the Bluebird constellation as capable of rendering Russia's GLONASS satellite navigation system ineffective (jamming) while not interfering with U.S. GPS, attributing this capability to the specific spectrum bands ASTS uses, particularly Ligado spectrum, which he says the Department of War (Defense) is already using and which is subject to contentious litigation with pre-petition Ligado investors.

Kook cites a post from Katzy showing that with ASTS's forthcoming mid-band satellites, a US government customer of ASTS could jam GLONASS channels entirely — described as position-navigation-and-timing (PNT) denial — while noting Anduril has separately developed workarounds to GPS-denial for drones after experiencing jamming issues in Ukraine.

Kook says FirstNet 'will happen soon' and notes FirstNet held a meeting last week, though the timing or structure of any deal remains unknown; he cites public FCC docket details on Band 14, changes to FirstNet's own website highlighting the service, and multiple YouTube videos of FirstNet personnel with titles referencing an 'ASTS project' as evidence a deal is imminent.

Kook estimates FirstNet could represent almost $1 billion of revenue for ASTS, based on roughly 6 million FirstNet subscribers and a relatively high ARPU for what he calls a high-value first-responder affinity group.

Kook argues IoT tracking (e.g., AirTags, asset tracking along remote trade routes and shipping lanes) is a major underappreciated opportunity for ASTS, since moving goods are more likely than people to pass through terrestrial 'dead spots.'

Kook argues the 'game theory' is that executives filing to sell stock typically do so with knowledge that good news is likely coming soon after (since selling ahead of bad news would create legal liability), calling this pattern something he no longer reads much into given his familiarity with it; he estimates Wisniewski's current stock position is worth almost $60 million and speculates it could eventually be worth $250 million to $500 million.

Kook says he is watching closely for a New Glenn hot-fire test this week, which would then be used to lock in a launch date for New Glenn 3; he notes he may be unable to personally attend that launch due to a scheduling conflict if it slips.

Kook says the company has been finalizing composite materials work needed for Batch 1 satellites to withstand launch stresses (which also helps reduce satellite weight, allowing more satellites per launch), based on a conversation with an acquaintance who works at another publicly traded launch company; he expects Batch 1 to ship in April, roughly coinciding with anticipated SpaceX-related news flow.

Kook closes by saying he expects Q2 to be an exciting period for the stock and jokes he hopes the stock reaches $250 per share.

Kook frames the current competitive environment as a 'World Spectrum Classic,' arguing AST SpaceMobile has surprised the world and rivals are now struggling to catch up.

Kook's framework: AST SpaceMobile has three compounding moats — technology, regulatory savvy, and business strategy — where regulatory-friendly European structuring plus superior technology lets the business model become a further competitive advantage, allowing ASTS to capture MSS spectrum others can't use.

Kook speculates, based on unspecified deep due diligence into a public filing that he says wasn't obviously intended to reveal this, that AST SpaceMobile may be inserting itself into the IRIS² (EU sovereign satellite) project, citing multiple European partners beyond MNOs as suggestive but not confirmed evidence.

Kook says forecasting AST SpaceMobile's future is like 'drawing up estimates in a crayon, not a scalpel' — he frames 2030 revenue as plausibly $1 billion, $10 billion, $20 billion, or $30 billion, explicitly calling this a rough order-of-magnitude guess rather than a real forecast.

Kook floats that the Satellite Connect Europe opportunity alone could be worth roughly $10 billion, and combined with U.S. commercial and military opportunity, could support a trillion-dollar market cap thesis for AST SpaceMobile — explicitly caveated as not a foregone conclusion or a price target, but something he believes management/the board may be thinking about.

Kook references an analyst framework (attributed to 'Cathie'/'Katzi') that 'spectrum will find its way to the most efficient system,' and analogizes AST SpaceMobile to a low-cost commodity producer (like a Potash company in Canada or Saudi Arabia oil) that should structurally aggregate the most spectrum as the most efficient system, quoting Abel Avellan's characterization of spectrum as 'the asset that has a value that nobody can afford.'

Citing analysis from 'Dr. Mike,' Kook explains AT&T's rationale: satellite (via ASTS) can replace AT&T's copper carrier-of-last-resort obligations while converging with AT&T's overall network, saving CapEx and improving revenue efficiency by reducing churn on already-acquired customers.

Kook says he doesn't fully understand ASTS's role in 6G but sees a trend where next-generation (NTN) networks will depend on ASTS-enabled spectrum reuse of frequencies currently unusable via terrestrial networks.

Citing interference data reviewed by analyst 'Katzi,' Kook says AST SpaceMobile was transmitting well below the maximum allowed RF interference threshold on every cell, while Starlink reportedly could not operate even a minimum constellation without exceeding the limit and needing a waiver.

Kook (via Katzi's technical commentary) argues AST SpaceMobile's ground-based ('bent pipe') signal processing is better suited to handling the computationally intensive Doppler-shift compensation required for 6G/NTN networks at LEO orbital speeds (~17,000 mph) than Starlink's closed, on-satellite processing architecture, which is harder to coordinate/upgrade in orbit.

Kook argues the bent-pipe (ground-processing) architecture also preserves 'data sovereignty' for MNOs and countries, which he says matters especially to European partners wary of data control by the U.S. or by SpaceX.

On Ligado spectrum, Kook explains it sits near sensitive GPS spectrum (which cannot tolerate high-power adjacent emissions), and says AST SpaceMobile's powerful, tightly directed beamforming (a 'rectangle' power profile with a sharp drop-off rather than broad 'shoulders') lets it use that spectrum without interfering with GPS — per Katzi's view, Globalstar reportedly can't use it at all, and Iridium would need very good filters given its proximity.

Kook reports the company is awaiting SES (satellite/SCS) approval, and notes Verizon withdrew its petition to deny AST SpaceMobile this week, which Kook reads as docket 'cleanup' suggesting approval may be imminent — 'we think it could be any day.'

Kook relays a quote from a former SpaceX product manager on a TIGUS call stating 'I know there's AST SpaceMobile who are gearing up to do some interesting things as well' on direct-to-cell and AI training, in the context of AI inference discussion — flagged by Kook as an interesting, unconfirmed signal.

Kook says Golden Dome continues to expand, with Japan reportedly joining, and frames the Iran conflict as effectively an advertisement for U.S. weapons-system capability; he believes AST SpaceMobile will be revealed as an integral backbone — specifically in the tracking, custody, and data-transport layer of missile defense — though he stresses this is his belief/hope, not a confirmed contract ('not a foregone conclusion').

Citing a T-Mobile USA CEO comment relayed via a 'TIGR' account post, Kook agrees with framing direct-to-cell/D2D service as an 'insurance product' — low-frequency need but high-value when needed, justifying a willingness to pay premium for downside protection.

Kook discusses AST SpaceMobile as a platform whose total addressable market is hard to fully scope because use cases vary by individual (e.g., recreational users rigging Starlink dishes to snowmobiles in Montana for connectivity), suggesting eventual on-phone satellite connectivity could replace such niche equipment-heavy solutions and that tiered service packages could capture this demand.

Kook explains that beam capacity is shared among users within a beam, so Starlink's 4 Mbps beams degrade further when shared among many users in urban/denser areas, while in rural dead zones fewer users mitigates the problem — reinforcing his view that Starlink's system functions more as a niche dead-zone patch than a full network-of-the-future solution.

Citing detail found by community member 'Kevin,' Kook says SpaceX satellites generate about 40 beams each doing about 4 Mbps, while AST SpaceMobile satellites are capable of producing roughly 2,800 beams at up to 120 Mbps each, constrained in practice by onboard processing/bandwidth capacity (a function partly addressed by the AST5000 ASIC) rather than by beam-generation limits.

Kook speculates about the possibility that SpaceX could end up a weaker-than-expected number-two competitor if its own carrier customers begin multi-clienting with AST SpaceMobile, explicitly framing this as a possibility, not a foregone conclusion.

Kook contrasts Orange's managed-core-network partnership approach (an 'Orange-managed core network') with Starlink's closed, Starlink-managed core network model, citing a prior complaint from Telstra in Australia about the integration burden of running two separate networks under Starlink's approach — versus MNOs retaining control under AST SpaceMobile's model.

Kook says it was a comparatively slow news week but expects more visibility soon on the FM-2 launch, contingent on a successful New Glenn 3 hot fire/static fire test expected this week or next, after which a firm launch date can be set.

Kook says the satellite-stacking engineering challenge — safely stacking 6 to 8 satellites for launch — has reportedly now been solved/certified, which he characterizes as a one-time critical-path item that, once solved, should not recur as a future delay.

Anpanman expects a definitive commercial agreement between FirstNet/AT&T and AST SpaceMobile 'relatively soon,' spitballing that it could be worth a few hundred million dollars over several years, possibly structured as a minimum guaranteed amount plus per-user pricing.

Anpanman speculates this anecdote could indicate FirstNet beta testing has already quietly begun (possibly caught mid-test rather than intended for that user), and encourages FirstNet users to test connectivity in dead zones during BlueBird satellite passes and report back.

Anpanman calculates that if 50 users in one beam all used data simultaneously they'd get about 80 kilobits per second each (roughly 8x a 9600-baud modem), illustrating the Starlink service is really suited for texting, not broadband, when many users share a beam.

AST's 120+ Mbps Block 2 target doesn't yet factor in MIMO, Cohere technology, or carrier aggregation; Anpanman cites AST partner Bell as having said that based on their technology they believe capacity could be 3 to 10 times higher.

Anpanman concludes that Starlink Direct-to-Cell today is really a competitor to messaging-tier services like Skylo and Globalstar, not to AST's broadband-focused service.

Anpanman argues extending Golden Dome to allied nations makes sense because amortizing costs across multiple allied nations' budgets (potentially billions of dollars a year from partners) would ease the strain Golden Dome would otherwise put on the US budget alone.

Responding to a tweet asking whether drone proliferation renders Golden Dome (missile interceptors) obsolete versus lasers, Anpanman argues drone warfare actually increases the need for Golden Dome's position-navigation-timing (PNT/GPS backup) and sensing capabilities, distinguishing continental missile defense (ICBMs, hypersonic missiles) from contested-zone drone warfare that would need its own communications/positioning support.

Citing Professor Todd Humphreys of UT Austin, Anpanman says the constellation could serve as a powerful electronic warfare platform capable of disrupting communications/drone networks, drawing a comparison to SpaceX's Starshield reportedly being used for precision work over Iran, and argues Golden Dome would take this to another level, becoming more valuable as the Iran conflict continues.

Anpanman notes the current administration has also discussed potentially bringing Canada into the Golden Dome fold, and speculates that even if Europe builds its own parallel defense system, it would likely still need to contract with companies like AST SpaceMobile for the underlying technology.

In 2024, after diligencing both AST and Starlink, Verizon chose to partner with AST SpaceMobile; Anpanman calls this one of the biggest points of validation for the company, crediting it with re-rating the stock from about $5 to $39.

Anpanman speculates Verizon may have kept its formal FCC opposition on file as leverage/insurance since AT&T is the 'senior partner' running the regulatory process and Verizon the 'junior partner,' and that withdrawing it now signals confidence the deal terms are being honored.

New FCC Chairman Carr has focused on cutting bureaucracy and expediting approvals; Anpanman says a recent (Jan/Feb) meeting between AT&T and Verizon attorneys, AST SpaceMobile, RKF Engineering and the FCC — with no company principals present — suggests the process is down to final housekeeping ('cross the T's and dot the I's'), meaning FCC commercial approval could come 'any day now.'

Anpanman ran an informal poll asking how the stock would react to FCC approval; many replies said it's 'priced in' or the stock would be flat or down, but he argues the market doesn't fully appreciate that approval would let AST deploy satellites without needing special temporary authorizations, and expects a 'significant rerating' of the stock once approval is announced.

A static fire test of the refurbished 'Never Tell Me The Odds' New Glenn booster — Blue Origin's first-ever booster reuse — is expected sometime next week, based on SpaceMob community sleuthing rather than an official announcement.

Based on various sources, Anpanman expects the New Glenn 3 launch (carrying BlueBird 7) sometime between March 29th and 31st, timed ahead of NASA's Artemis II mission, which is targeted to launch April 1st.

Anpanman lays out an expected sequence: the booster rolled out to the launch pad Monday or Tuesday, static fire test Wednesday through Friday, and a launch date confirmed following a successful static fire.

Anpanman believes that absent the Iran conflict weighing on broader markets, ASTS stock would likely be trading in the $120s-$130s rather than its current level around $87.

Anpanman describes a 'hopper full of catalysts' — the New Glenn launch by end of March, a satellite batch delivery in April, potential FCC commercial approval 'any day,' FirstNet developments, and possible new commercial agreements — arguing it's 'inevitable' that some of these will hit even if exact timing is uncertain.

Anpanman speculates it's possible AST has deliberately kept pounding the table on the 120 Mbps figure as a competitive 'masterclass' move -- while privately capable of much higher speeds (e.g. 200 Mbps) -- so that competitors like Starlink design their next-generation systems to just beat 120/150 Mbps, only to be surprised later by AST's true capability.

He estimates that 140 Mbps (about 20% above 120) would only 'moderately' exceed and likely would not meet a 'greatly exceeds' threshold; around 180 Mbps (about 50% above 120) would be defensible as 'greatly exceeds'; and a conservative attorney would want the company to be confident of reaching roughly 200-240 Mbps before using that specific wording.

Anpanman says a 3x spectrum multiplier seems reasonable to him, but he is unsure what technology or mechanism would be needed to achieve a 10x multiplier, and notes this would use AI to more efficiently reuse spectrum on a single satellite rather than relying on multiple satellites (as MIMO does).

Starlink's next-generation V2 satellite will have a larger 5-meter by 5-meter array (still smaller than AST's) and roughly 20 kilowatts of power generation, versus what Anpanman says AST's satellites do today (roughly 100 kilowatts); the V2 design keeps a regenerative architecture (all processing/brains onboard the satellite) and appears intended to support software-based fixed cells, but achieving 150 Mbps will require an entirely new satellite design and depends on Starship becoming operational at a commercial launch cadence, which will take time.

Anpanman speculates that once mid-band Block 3 BlueBirds are deployed, a phone capable of carrier aggregation could talk to both a low-band Bluebird and a mid-band Bluebird simultaneously, potentially achieving much higher combined peak throughput than either alone.

Anpanman says the FCC application covering AST's US market authorization is currently being reviewed and could be granted 'any day now.'

Instead of two batches of 3 satellites, the latest expectation is a single batch of 6 BlueBirds delivered in April, which could either be split across two Falcon 9 launches or launched together via a New Glenn mission.

Blue Origin filed for special temporary authorization (STA) to launch New Glenn missions 4, 5, and 6; New Glenn 4's STA was approved the day before this recording, and Anpanman expects 5 and 6 to be approved in the following one to two weeks. Based on his own due diligence, he believes Blue Origin does not currently have enough other payloads to fill all three New Glenn launches, making it likely that at least one -- possibly two -- of them will carry AST SpaceMobile satellites, potentially sometime in May.

Anpanman argues that just as historically 'he who controls the seas controls the world,' today 'he who controls space controls the world' -- pointing to how US space-based observation, intelligence, communications, and GPS capabilities enable dominance in current conflicts (e.g. laser-guided munitions, fighters, bombers, ships).

Citing a statement from Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth that the US doesn't want to enter fights looking for 'a fair fight' but wants 'overwhelming advantage,' Anpanman argues this mindset drives ongoing, continuous development of space assets, positioning AST SpaceMobile -- alongside companies like Rocket Lab, Planet Labs, and BlackSky -- to benefit from durable, rising defense spending on space capabilities regardless of near-term market volatility.

Kook says he had been building up his ASTS trading position (which he calls 'Torx') ahead of the earnings call and Mobile World Congress, anticipating a 'dam-breaking moment' for the company's fundamentals, and felt the stock rallied on Thursday before this week's earnings call.

Kook argues that a company guiding to $1 billion of revenue within two years is rare and starts to draw comparisons to Starlink's valuation trajectory.

Kook says this certification has now reportedly been completed, meaning the 'final straw' blocking shipment at pace has been cleared, and frames this as a bullish resolution rather than a red flag, contrasting it with historical AST delays like BlueWalker 3's early slippage.

Kook says AST has added another heavy launch vehicle to its manifest and speculates (without confirmation) about which provider it might be — Mitsubishi, ULA, or Ariane — guessing Ariane given AST's European ambitions via Satellite Connect Europe (formerly SatCo).

Kook notes New Glenn 3 is expected to launch around March 29-30, 2026, based on general internet consensus.

Kook reiterates at the close of the episode that the next two months are shaping up to be pivotal for AST, marked first by the New Glenn launch (~March 30) and a possible positive FCC regulatory update.

Kook says the Telus deal effectively confirms AST now has a Canadian MNO 'monopoly,' just as it holds over 60% MNO market share in the US via AT&T and Verizon.

Kook argues the company deliberately avoided rushing to convert every MOU into a definitive agreement early, on the theory that AST's negotiating leverage and pricing power increase as commercial launch nears ('wait until we can see the whites of their eyes').

Kook references a comparison (attributed to 'Cool Killer,' dated March 2) showing SpaceX has more definitive agreements while AST has more MOUs, but argues AST is successfully converting ('harvesting') its MOUs into definitive deals.

Kook references an unnamed telecom analyst's view that Starlink's direct-to-device push could become a bridgehead into full consumer/MVNO service, meaning the real risk to MNOs is commercial disintermediation and loss of customer ownership, not technological displacement — a framing Kook strongly agrees with.

Kook notes SpaceX announced plans to have 'upgraded satellites' by 2027 in response to AST's MWC news wave, framing SpaceX as a 'fast follower' playing from behind on both technology and MNO market access.

Kook says this correction could clear one of the last items needed for an anticipated FCC approval related to the AST5000 ASIC/satellite system, which he calls a meaningful 'checkered flag' event.

Kook argues that space-based, high-powered radar delivered via AST SpaceMobile satellites would be resilient versus ground radar and could become a top US defense priority, comparing the government's interest in AST's added manufacturing capacity to Lockheed Martin ramping interceptor missile production.

Kook speculates that this dynamic is why a market commentator known as 'Kevin Mack' sold his AST position — wanting to see more physical satellite 'metal' actually in orbit before being satisfied — while Kook argues the metal being built on the ground now will soon be in orbit.

Kook says FM1 and FM2 (Block 2 BlueBird satellites) are particularly interesting because they appear to be demonstrating space-based radar/sensing capabilities relevant to Golden Dome-related government use cases.

Kook speculates that Sirius XM (Sirius Satellite Radio) could eventually exit the satellite operations business and instead lease or monetize its spectrum through a partner like AST SpaceMobile, based on FCC docket activity suggesting Sirius and AST are in dialogue; he frames this explicitly as an unconfirmed suspicion.

Kook mentions a growing pile of Space Development Agency (SDA)-related opportunities and program names, predicting many will blur together for investors but that the aggregate government dollar figure will keep rising.

Kook revisits the 'copper TAM' (previously called the 'Scotiabank thesis'): once AST's satellite service levels are high enough, the FCC would let MNOs decommission legacy copper infrastructure (which carries costly mandatory service obligations) and replace it with AST-based wireless service, representing a further expansion of AST's addressable market.

Kook says he remains fully cash-paid-up (no margin) in his AST position and believes current macro-driven weakness (Iran conflict, oil, broader market selloff) will pass quickly, comparing it to how the market stopped discussing Venezuela within a couple of months.

Kook reiterates his belief that the 'launchpad of worry' (persistent investor anxiety about launch delays) is about to inflect positively now that the stacking certification issue is resolved, and cites a flurry of recent sell-side analyst upgrades reaching similar conclusions.

The report's central, bold thesis is that AST SpaceMobile — a relatively small company based in West Texas — is both technologically and commercially superior to Elon Musk's Starlink specifically in the race to dominate direct-to-device (D2D) mobile broadband.

Because Starlink's smaller antenna aperture produces a less focused beam, it suffers from 'spillage' or side-lobe emissions that can raise the interference noise floor for terrestrial cellular networks — described as acting like a jammer — which the report says has caused Starlink to hit strict FCC interference/power limits, capping how much power it's legally allowed to broadcast.

By contrast, AST's massive phased array can use precise phase-shifting to create constructive interference toward the target phone while creating destructive interference (signal cancellation) in all other directions, which the report says allows AST to comply with FCC out-of-band-emissions (OOBE) rules even while broadcasting far more power than Starlink.

The report says this mechanical and RF deployment architecture is protected by thousands of patents, and estimates it would take a competitor the better part of a decade to develop a comparable deployment mechanism that doesn't infringe those patents.

The report estimates Starlink's next-generation V3 satellites at roughly 4,400 pounds — more than 4x the mass of the current V2 — with power generation expected to reach around 20 kilowatts, still only about 1/5 to 1/6 of AST's 100-120 kilowatts.

Because V3 satellites are too large and heavy to be launched economically on Falcon 9, Starlink's entire next-gen D2D strategy depends on Starship; the report notes Starship prototype development dates back to 2019, with the most optimistic targets for regular commercial payload deployment around mid-2027, and says Starlink's V3 constellation likely won't reach 'critical mass' in orbit until 2028 at the earliest — giving AST a multi-year head start since it's already launching its large arrays on existing rockets.

Because Starlink lacks the power/precision to act as a native node on a carrier's primary network without causing interference, its D2D service (via T-Mobile) instead runs on a separate synthetic network overlay called 'T-Satellite' — a distinct network ID that requires the phone to fully disconnect from the primary network, scan for Starlink, authenticate, and log into T-Satellite, rather than a seamless handoff.

The report cites real-world beta-tester feedback describing severe battery drain (from the modem constantly hunting between networks), dropped connections during handoffs, and poor indoor penetration with the T-Satellite overlay experience.

Because Starlink's signal is comparatively weak and unstable, the report says Starlink has been petitioning regulators to lower its satellites' orbital altitude to get closer to phones, which would increase atmospheric drag and shorten satellite lifespan — whereas AST can maintain a stable connection from higher, more stable altitudes because of its larger array.

Because AST's satellite is just a transparent relay, the report argues that upgrading to 6G only requires the MNO to upgrade ground-based software/baseband units — the satellite keeps working unchanged — whereas Starlink's regenerative payload processes/decodes data onboard the satellite, so a shift to 6G would likely render its in-orbit processing hardware obsolete, forcing SpaceX to launch an entirely new generation of satellites to stay compatible.

Starlink built its fixed home-internet business on high-frequency Ku and Ka-band spectrum, which requires a clear line of sight and can't penetrate walls, rain, or tree canopy — the report calls this 'the world's best hockey stick for fixed broadband' being used for the wrong sport in mobile D2D — and Starlink has since partnered with T-Mobile for only a narrow slice of mid-band spectrum, versus AST's broader global low-band access via its MNO partner network.

The report notes Starlink/SpaceX reportedly spent about $17 billion acquiring spectrum assets from a company the audio names as 'Agostar' (likely a garbled reference to EchoStar, given the report's spectrum-competitor context) — but estimates that replicating AST's full existing global low-band spectrum portfolio would cost a competitor 'trillions of dollars,' since incumbent carriers won't sell foundational spectrum assets and many governments block foreign control of domestic cellular traffic ('data sovereignty') — an issue AST avoids because its bent-pipe design keeps data processing with the local MNO.

The report argues AST's wholesale MNO model gives it frictionless access to billions of existing paying subscribers overnight (e.g., AT&T customers just get a text saying coverage expanded), whereas Starlink, operating more like a competitor to telcos, would need to spend heavily on marketing to get users to separately sign up for its T-Satellite roaming service.

The report states plainly that equating AST SpaceMobile with Starlink in the D2D race is 'silly' since they aren't playing the same game, but does acknowledge Starlink/SpaceX's dominance in fixed satellite broadband — nearly 10,000 satellites in orbit and a $1.5 trillion valuation, about 40 times AST's public-market valuation.

The report's conclusion is that Starlink's dominance in fixed home internet does not translate into an advantage in mobile D2D broadband, where — due to differing physics, hardware requirements, and spectrum needs — it argues AST SpaceMobile holds a nearly insurmountable structural, engineering, and commercial lead.

Jobs data released that morning came in negative versus an estimate for positive job growth, and combined with the Iran conflict driving oil prices higher, the Fed is caught in a 'no man's land' — bad jobs numbers would normally argue for rate cuts, but rising energy prices risk reigniting inflation, tying the Fed's hands.

Trump reportedly tweeted that morning demanding 'absolute unconditional surrender' of Iran before conflict would stop, with an implication he'd want to install an approved replacement leader; Anpanman frames this as Trump's typical negotiating style of opening with an extreme position (referencing the 'TACO' meme) rather than a fixed final stance, but notes markets won't take the escalation well in the near term.

AST SpaceMobile stock recently hit $104-105, and Anpanman speculates that absent the war/macro uncertainty the stock would probably be trading at $110-120, but it's currently around $90 (up from about $78-80 the prior week) — still higher post-earnings despite the broader market volatility.

Anpanman characterizes Starlink's current direct-to-cell constellation (650 satellites) as 'not usable' for a market like Germany, which borders many other nations, because the moving cell beams can't precisely target coverage and the service has low data rates — hence Deutsche Telekom needs the future V2-based system.

Deutsche Telekom is effectively stepping into EchoStar's shoes to seek the 2 GHz European spectrum allocation on Starlink's behalf, since that allocation needs renewal; Anpanman notes Elon Musk has repeatedly said the EU should be abolished, which he argues creates a political conflict for EU regulators deciding whether to grant Starlink a license.

Anpanman guesses regulators may give Starlink only a small spectrum allocation (e.g. '5 by 5') rather than a full grant, given the tension between Starlink's importance as a service and Musk's public hostility toward the EU as an institution.

Anpanman interprets Höttges' comments as showing Deutsche Telekom is aware Starlink's global MSS spectrum-based service, while workable, isn't ideal for cellular use, and that entering the non-exclusive 2028-target agreement gives Deutsche Telekom optionality to 'see how this plays out' rather than a binding commitment.

Anpanman's guess is that Deutsche Telekom is likely already in talks with Satellite Connect Europe (the AST-anchored Vodafone/Orange/Telefónica venture), and that if that venture gets a spectrum allocation and launches good service, Deutsche Telekom would work with them since that service would come online sooner than Starlink's 2028-targeted V2 offering.

Both the 2 GHz MSS spectrum path (relevant to Starlink and potentially AST) and AST's carrier-spectrum-based Block 2 approach require an entire new device ecosystem, since current phones can't use MSS spectrum; however, Anpanman notes Satellite Connect Europe can launch sooner because it relies on carriers' existing cellular spectrum rather than new MSS spectrum and new phones.

Anpanman recalls that as of 2024, before the news broke, he would have said there was no way Verizon would ever work with AT&T and AST SpaceMobile together, assuming AT&T would want to keep the opportunity exclusive; instead AT&T brought Verizon into the AST ecosystem to lock up the US market, take subscribers from T-Mobile, and jointly guard against Starlink as a competitive threat.

Anpanman lays out a hypothetical strategic path: T-Mobile's Gopalan could tell AT&T and Verizon he doesn't want to enable Starlink as an MVNO but wants access to the AST SpaceMobile service — implicitly threatening to enable Starlink if refused — and AT&T/Verizon might let T-Mobile in rather than risk Elon Musk becoming a full-fledged competitor.

T-Mobile's exclusivity agreement with Starlink ends this summer, which Anpanman frames as the near-term window in which this potential shift toward T-Mobile joining AT&T, Verizon, and AST SpaceMobile could play out, consolidating the US market around AST's technology.

Anpanman speculates Telus most likely already has or will buy its equity stake on the open market rather than through a direct capital raise, since he believes the company doesn't need additional capital at this point and probably won't pursue further strategic convertible debt deals like the earlier ones with Verizon, AT&T, Vodafone, and Google.

With Telus added to AT&T, Verizon, and Bell Canada, Anpanman says AST has now 'locked up two-thirds of the most profitable market in the world' — North America, primarily the US (AT&T/Verizon) and Canada (Bell/Telus) — and expects this partnership pattern to repeat globally.

Anpanman expects Satellite Connect Europe (the AST/Vodafone European JV) to expand its ownership, guessing Telefónica, Orange, and other European carriers will invest for both an equity stake and a revenue-split arrangement, partly to strengthen the JV's position with European regulators.

FCC Chairman Brendan Carr has publicly said Europe should be careful not to hinder competition from US satellite companies; Anpanman notes this could also be read as support for Starlink's spectrum bid, but argues a 'best technology wins' standard would favor AST/Satellite Connect Europe since the underlying constellation, while a European-operated JV, is US-owned technology.

Viasat reportedly holds a roughly 15x15 (Anpanman flags this figure as uncertain/approximate) MHz 2 GHz European spectrum allocation granted years ago that is now coming up for renewal; Viasat has mainly used it for aircraft connectivity and is losing fixed-wireless customers to Starlink, so Anpanman expects it will struggle to justify renewal.

Anpanman frames the EU 2 GHz MSS spectrum outcome as likely a 'jump ball' between Starlink and Satellite Connect Europe, with a possible allocation to Iris2 only if that sovereign project ever gets off the ground.

Anpanman claims that right after Scotiabank's negative note, AST signed the 10-year Saudi Telecom (stc) agreement ($175 million prepayment, minimum $1 billion of value) and the Verizon definitive commercial agreement — used as evidence the bearish thesis has been wrong, since AST has kept signing more customers rather than losing them.

Anpanman speculates, as his own opinion, that the analyst went bearish partly due to influence from short sellers' commission business, given Scotia is a smaller Canadian broker.

Movistar's allegiance is unclear to Anpanman because Pegaso may control the entity despite Telefónica being a JV partner; he speculates Starlink may sign Movistar since Starlink has hinted at a Mexican carrier deal.

Anpanman recalls Elon Musk once called Carlos Slim a 'drug dealer,' after which Slim canceled work with Starlink; Anpanman expects a formal América Móvil-AST commercial agreement in the near future, aided by Abel Avellan's Venezuelan heritage and AST's relationship with Adriana Cisneros (whose father was a DirecTV Latin America pioneer).

Boost's contract includes a most-favored-nation (MFN) clause for US MNOs, meaning Starlink must give Boost the same or better terms as any other US MNO deal; since T-Mobile is the only other US carrier using Starlink, Anpanman concludes by MFN logic that Starlink and T-Mobile's actual split must also be roughly 80/20 in Starlink's favor.

Anpanman calls this 'insane' given T-Mobile brought its own 1900 MHz PCS G-block spectrum (5x5 MHz, nationwide, mid-band) to the deal, yet reportedly gets only 20% of the economics.

T-Mobile's exclusivity arrangement with Starlink is set to end this coming summer (2026); Anpanman guesses any competitive restrictions might also be removed once exclusivity expires.

Anpanman speculates, as a guess, that T-Mobile CEO Mike Sievert's departure may be connected to having agreed to this economically unfavorable Starlink deal.

Anpanman predicts some early Starlink-adopting carriers will come to view their deals as a 'Faustian bargain' — good short-term optics but bad long-term economics as Starlink both takes the lion's share of revenue and can compete directly for their customers.

Anpanman personally prefers AST's focused, 'clean' story — a single constellation serving dual-use commercial direct-to-device and government/military use cases (comms, radar sensing, GPS, electronic warfare/jamming) — versus what he views as SpaceX/xAI's more diversified, dilution-heavy combined bet.

Anpanman expects some carriers globally to work with both AST and Starlink in different geographies or use cases (citing Telefónica and Globe Telecom as examples), viewing the market as a likely duopoly rather than winner-take-all, though he believes the balance of scale will tip toward AST.

Anpanman estimates that without this stacking design, supporting 6-7 BlueBird satellites (each about 4,200 kg) would require an additional 1,000-1,500 kg of support structure weight; saving that weight allows an extra satellite to fit in some fairings, substantially lowering per-unit launch cost.

Anpanman attributes recent manufacturing delays to challenges perfecting the new composite stacking design, consistent with AST's 'succeed the first time, succeed every time' engineering approach rather than an iterate-through-failure approach.

Anpanman guesses the BlueBird 7 launch on Blue Origin's New Glenn will be scheduled 'any day now,' likely happening in the 3rd or 4th week of March 2026, though he frames this explicitly as his own guess pending official scheduling.

Anpanman says the company appears on track to ship its first batch of 6 satellites to Cape Canaveral in 'under 27 days' or sometime over the course of April 2026, and speculates this batch could fly as a stack of 6 on New Glenn 4 (which currently has no other scheduled payloads) or alternatively as two separate Falcon 9 launches of 3 satellites each.

Anpanman expects that batch to launch within roughly 2-3 weeks after shipment to Cape Canaveral.

As his personal opinion, not financial advice, Anpanman expects the stock to break above $120-$130 and set a new all-time high before the BlueBird 7 launch.

Anpanman says he is also watching for further Golden Dome-related developments, specifically around the MDA Shield program and what he refers to as the 'Noble program' (name stated with some uncertainty in the transcript).

Declined to give a specific 2028 revenue figure when asked, keeping remarks to the stated 2027 goal; noted the demand drivers tracked for 7-8 years of company history remain intact and stronger by the day.

The most difficult aspects of R&D — high power production, large sensitive aperture, high processing power via the custom ASIC, and cost-effective power generation — are complete and integral to current operations. New opportunities being explored include radar, power generation, and multiplying spectrum usage via AI combined with the large aperture, which could multiply the usable spectrum (e.g. from 50 MHz) by an estimated 3x to 10x — explicitly framed as a future possibility, not a firm commitment.

In response to a question about a specific AST patent for thermal management (dissipating heat locally at each antenna, redirecting heat during extreme cold): the company vertically integrated 95% of its technology, including power production at roughly 10x lower cost per square meter than historical satellite manufacturers, enabling it to dissipate significant wattage per square meter within space power constraints — a differentiator relevant to future data-center-in-space and AI spectrum-management opportunities. Avellan reiterated the largest addressable market is still true broadband direct to the handset, positioning space as a 'third leg' of communications alongside Wi-Fi and cellular.

Speculating on rumors that AST might acquire Iridium or a similar company, Anpanman argues this is unlikely given management's no-near-term-fundraising stance and technical complications — Iridium holds only one spectrum band (no dedicated uplink/downlink), which would require time-division rather than full-duplex operation and add significant complexity; he thinks spectrum expansion is more likely via partnerships than M&A.

CFO Andy Johnson said the company is acutely focused on reaching profitability so it no longer needs to raise capital; Anpanman doesn't expect the company to pursue buybacks or dividends even once profitable, arguing it should keep reinvesting in R&D and new opportunities (defense, AI data centers) rather than risk falling behind like legacy companies that prioritized capital return over reinvestment.

For comparison, Street consensus for 2027 (based on 7 analyst estimates) is $726 million; Anpanman argues that if the company hits even a conservative ~$900 million in 2027, analysts will likely need to cut 2026 estimates but raise 2027 estimates.

Citing a tweet by Kevin Chen, Anpanman lays out the revenue trajectory: 2024 revenue of $4.4 million, 2025 at $71 million, 2026 guided to $150-200 million, 2027 targeted near $1 billion, with 2027-2028 potentially at least doubling to $2-3 billion, and end-of-decade revenue potentially around $7-10 billion (his own extrapolation/spitballing).

Anpanman compares the setup to Palantir, which he cites as doing about $7 billion of revenue this year at an 84% gross margin and roughly $4.2 billion of EBITDA (2025 revenue $4.5 billion growing to $7.2 billion in 2026 and $10.3 billion in 2027), trading at 47x 2026 revenue and 33x 2027 revenue; he argues AST's disclosed 90%+ margins on high-quality recurring revenue merit a similar high-multiple, software-like valuation rather than comparisons to low-margin space-hardware peers with 30-50% EBITDA margins at best.

Management discussed capturing commercial AI opportunities including precise geolocation (which Anpanman interprets as a GPS/PNT alternative) and radar/sensing technology; Anpanman speculates there are additional undisclosed defense use cases such as jamming/electronic warfare that the company wouldn't discuss publicly.

Abel Avellan discussed the possibility of multiplying spectral efficiency from the current roughly 3-4 bits per hertz by a factor of 3 to 10x; Anpanman calls this a huge claim (flagging it as something he's not fully sure how to interpret) and speculates it could relate to AI optimization work, possibly involving Cohere, which he says is speculated to be a partner.

The company said it can already exceed the previously stated 120 Mbps peak data rate; Anpanman infers this suggests BlueBird 6 testing is going well, and floats (as speculation) that if spectral efficiency gains of 10x prove real combined with enough satellites on low-band spectrum, AST could eventually replace terrestrial towers in suburban (non-dense) areas.

Management reiterated the company's bent-pipe architecture processes signals at the ground gateway (eNodeB) rather than onboard the satellite, making the network protocol-agnostic across 4G, 5G, and eventually 6G (Abel jokingly said even '7G'); Anpanman contrasts this with Starlink, which he says puts the eNodeB/processing on the satellite itself, creating higher long-term obsolescence risk if protocols evolve, though he notes Starlink's ~3-year satellite life may limit that risk in practice.

Anpanman speculates, based on Space Mob due diligence, that British Telecom, Telecom Italia, and one other carrier may also join SatCo, and notes the company said on the call that it was not done with Mobile World Congress announcements, implying more partner news could come that week.

Anpanman speculates Deutsche Telekom's Starlink announcement is also strategically timed to support EchoStar/SpaceX's push for renewal of European 2 GHz spectrum rights, which comes up for reallocation in May 2027; he flags the wildcard that Elon Musk is not well-liked in the EU as a factor to watch in how that spectrum gets allocated.

Anpanman frames the direct-to-device market as an emerging duopoly rather than zero-sum: many carriers will likely use both AST and Starlink for different needs (e.g., data sovereignty and network control favoring AST versus other operational tradeoffs favoring Starlink), with some markets seeing multiple carriers split between the two providers.

The company reiterated having 13 launches lined up across various vehicles, including New Glenn for BlueBird 7, and previously said it has launches booked for roughly 75 satellites in total; Anpanman assumes that overbooking figure still holds, though the company did not explicitly restate it this call.

The company signed an agreement with a new heavy launch vehicle provider, becoming a standby customer on its manifest; Anpanman speculates (unconfirmed) this is Mitsubishi Heavy, citing Mitsubishi's recent successful launches, historical Japan Import-Export Bank financing angles, and AST's close relationship with Rakuten, plus an earlier Abel name-drop of Mitsubishi on the Q3 call. Other candidates he considered and largely ruled out include Falcon Heavy, Ariane, and ULA.

BlueBird 7 is expected to launch on New Glenn 3, which Anpanman expects in March 2026 (guessing second half of March, explicitly not March 6 as one tweet had speculated).

After the April 2026 batch shipment of new composite BlueBirds, Anpanman expects roughly 2-3 weeks of integration time before launch, putting the next big batch launch in late April or early May 2026; based on Abel's on-call comment about having '1 batch of 6' ready to ship in April (rather than two batches of 3), plus due-diligence suggesting a New Glenn slot may be freeing up, Anpanman speculates this next launch will be New Glenn 4 carrying 6 (potentially up to 8) BlueBirds, which would be a notably fast turnaround for Blue Origin about a month after New Glenn 3.

In response to a listener question, Anpanman estimates (without certainty) that Rocket Lab's Neutron could fit about 2 BlueBird satellites per launch, though he's unsure whether using Neutron would be economical alongside New Glenn as the primary heavy vehicle.

Cantor Fitzgerald (analyst Colin Canfield) kept its price target at $80 with an overweight rating overnight; Anpanman guesses Canfield wants to see the first new-batch shipment succeed before raising the target.

Anpanman expects UBS ($43 price target) to potentially raise its target somewhat while staying neutral, Barclays (underweight, $60) to possibly nudge its target up while staying underweight or neutral, and bulls Deutsche Bank and ClearStreet ($137) to likely hold steady; he predicts other analysts will stay broadly neutral on ratings tomorrow.

Unlike other space companies (he cites Rocket Lab, BlackSky, and Redwire as having negative reactions to their own recent quarterly results), AST's stock traded up on the print despite the production/launch delays, which Anpanman attributes to the market already expecting some delay and being more focused on the strongly bullish revenue, cash, and margin disclosures.

Kook opens by saying this week's news 'magnifies the importance' of what AST SpaceMobile is doing, noting that concepts which would have been dismissed as hypothetical two or three years ago (government/military dual-use applications) are now materializing, and that skeptics/experts previously scoffed at these dual-use capabilities as 'pipe dreams.'

Kook says the total contract budget was $50 million available to 18 other competing companies, and AST SpaceMobile took $30 million of that, or roughly 60% of the available budget — his interpretation being 'we swept it' and that AST 'must have something special.'

Kook speculates (without confirming) that the timing of this government contract suggests things are 'going pretty well' with FM1 (fully unfurled and communicating) and FM2 (sealed in the fairing awaiting launch), i.e., that government interest is percolating alongside technical progress.

Kook references a table from @SpaceGrammys comparing government revenue received by various space companies, noting AST SpaceMobile's entry is currently blank/minimal, while he expects government revenue will remain 'a very small minority' of AST's total revenue even as it becomes strategically important, unlike for Palantir or SpaceX/Starlink where government revenue is a larger share.

Kook frames his investment thesis as a 'why now' question borrowed from venture-investing logic: the necessary condition is global smartphone adoption, but the actual enabling factor for a viable satellite network business is that launch costs have plummeted — citing a drop from about $28,000 per kilogram to about $5,000 per kilogram thanks to SpaceX — which he contrasts with the high launch costs that undermined 1990s constellations like Iridium and Teledesic.

Kook identifies AI-driven mobile demand as an additional, newer 'why now' factor not fully appreciated when the original investment thesis was formed, citing a Samsung statement that smartphones are expected to be the main vehicle for consumers to access AI, which he argues will drive increased demand for connectivity and data, and for AST's ability to help operationalize spectrum.

Kook describes New Glenn 3 launch preparations underway: landing platforms practicing recovery exercises, the fairing moving into the mating facility, and the engine skirt being transported by road, with a static fire test still required before launch.

Kook estimates the New Glenn 3 launch could happen 'anytime in the next 2 weeks' from the time of recording, but is unsure whether the company will send out launch invites given schedule uncertainty (in contrast to SpaceX's more predictable Falcon 9 timing).

Kook connects recent geopolitical events (referencing Iran and a described missile defense of a U.S. carrier group, the USS Abraham Lincoln, where Aegis systems intercepted incoming threats) to the strategic value of resilient space-based communications and sensing, arguing this validates the 'why now' thesis for military-grade satellite connectivity.

Kook cites a tweet noting the Pentagon's 2026 budget plans include $7.2 billion for space-based sensors, and references a Wall Street Journal report that ballistic missiles aimed at the carrier group were detected in their launch phase using an EWAC surveillance aircraft; Kook speculates AST SpaceMobile's constellation could eventually replace or supplement such aircraft-based detection with more reliable, broader LEO coverage.

Kook quotes Defense Secretary Hegseth as saying (paraphrased), 'I ultimately don't care what company name is on the side of the satellites, engines, or space case or space planes — the question is, can it scale, and can we scale it fast enough,' framing this as the challenge AST SpaceMobile is positioned to meet for Golden Dome-related defense applications.

Kook argues that as the AST SpaceMobile investor community ('space mob') has accumulated more due-diligence knowledge over time, panic and 'boogeyman' fear around stock declines (citing a recent drop from $130 to $80) has lessened, even as frustration about price declines remains.

Kook cites a LinkedIn article by Mobile Network editor Keith Dyer describing Vodafone's technical team as 'very firm on the rightness of its technical choice' and 'prepared to lose first mover advantage and wait for the tech to be right,' which Kook interprets as validating AST SpaceMobile's approach over rushing to market.

Kook argues AST SpaceMobile's 'bent pipe'/transparent-payload architecture (keeping the base station on the ground and only radio-head antennas in the satellite) is strategically important because it maintains 3GPP compliance, protects mobile network operator data sovereignty, and preserves backward compatibility — reasons he believes carriers like Vodafone and Rakuten remain firm on AST as their technical choice over alternatives.

Kook references commentary (via Anpanman, attributed to 'Dr. Mike') from an American Tower earnings call stating that 6G is likely to be designed with satellites as an integral part of an integrated network, which Kook frames as evidence the industry is moving away from viewing satellite connectivity as just a niche 'dead zone' filler toward a core network component.

Kook argues that despite claims Starlink Direct-to-Cell erased AST SpaceMobile's first-mover advantage, AST remains the true first mover in seamless, standards-based next-generation network connectivity from space, characterizing Starlink's approach as a 'jerry-rigged IoT system.'

Kook claims mobile network operators tested SpaceX's Starlink direct-to-cell service and then blocked it because it was interfering with their terrestrial spectrum, and argues MNOs recognize that partnering with SpaceX (which is not carrier-neutral and competes with them directly) is like 'leading the wolf into the henhouse.'

Kook discusses a geography argument from his own due-diligence document: drawing 100-kilometer interference buffers required for SpaceX's satellite operations around European countries would effectively 'delete' entire countries from coverage, meaning SpaceX cannot cover large parts of Europe, whereas he argues AST SpaceMobile's architecture does not have this limitation.

Kook notes SpaceX has stated goals for a new product using its S-band spectrum (for which it paid $20 billion), acknowledging SpaceX has real spectrum assets but questioning whether it can achieve the necessary beamforming and how it will access customers given the carrier-neutrality issue.

Kook notes the Vodafone joint venture formerly known as 'SatCo' has been renamed 'Satellite Connect Europe,' and says the JV continues to pursue access to 2 GHz spectrum from EU regulators while announcing growing numbers of MNOs signing letters of intent (LOIs).

Kook speculates that Europe will feel competitive pressure to invest in these sovereign satellite capabilities given recent U.S. geopolitical/military demonstrations, and believes the Iris² (Iris squared) European sovereign satellite program is 'past the point of no return,' though how it will interact with Satellite Connect Europe remains unclear to him.

Kook says he believes the European JV (Satellite Connect Europe) will ultimately produce billions of dollars of revenue, framing Europe as a market that can only really be served by AST SpaceMobile because of the beamforming/interference constraints that limit SpaceX's coverage there.

Kook argues the SpaceX IPO will be a major event for Wall Street that increases awareness and liquidity around orbital telecom broadly, which he believes should benefit AST SpaceMobile even though the ultimate share-price impact is uncertain.

Kook describes a conversation with an unnamed telecom-background community member ('Space Marauder') about historically large IoT connectivity contract sizes and use cases that failed to materialize a decade ago for commercial reasons, saying he is withholding details until that person publishes their own write-up.

Kook cites a chart from 'Battery Commodities' showing the total number of IoT-enabled devices rising sharply, and shares a personal anecdote about tagging his belongings with Apple AirTags, speculating that a satellite-powered AST SpaceMobile-enabled AirTag-like asset-tracking product could become a low-cost, high-value use case.

Kook mentions a 'nice thesis review' tweet from an investor referred to as Michael Sickand (of the 'Kraken' investment), noting Sickand has increased his conviction in AST SpaceMobile based on the enormity of the numbers involved in the opportunity.

Kook previews the upcoming quarterly earnings call (scheduled for the day after this episode), expecting the company to discuss New Glenn 3 launch progress, FM1 initial testing results, evolving regulatory pathways, and their FCC filings, while likely avoiding detailed comment on the Ligado matter since it remains an active bankruptcy case.

Kook predicts management will describe 'Batch 1' as ready, drawing a comparison to an earlier instance (August) when the company said FM1 was 'ready to ship' but it did not actually ship until October, joking that the company's definition of 'ready to ship' can be loose (his own preferred definition: ready if the launch vehicle could accept the payload at the processing facility).

Kook states he believes the company will miss its guidance of 5 launches in Q1 2026 given only about 30 days remain in the quarter, but expects a March launch (FM2), then one or possibly two launches in April, with a more predictable, high-frequency launch cadence developing by May-June 2026 as the 'constellation constipation' clears.

Kook expects the earnings call to cover Golden Dome and other government contract wins, and hopes management will clarify the distinction between prime and non-prime contractor roles, what other partners they work with, and how these government relationships fit together.

Kook expects an update on the Satellite Connect Europe strategy, though he doubts the company will reveal much detail on spectrum negotiations; he also expects reassurance on the strong balance sheet and 'fully funded' status, arguing that raising additional capital later doesn't contradict a 'fully funded' claim since that term refers to currently planned commitments, not all future opportunities.

Kook speculates the company may set up a separate government-focused corporate shell and potentially separate production facilities for dual-use/government satellites (which may require different hardware like optical inter-satellite links), while noting that dilution from such deals has so far been minor (around 2% of share count).

Kook predicts the company is nearing an inflection from what he calls a 'mañana' (tomorrow) phase to a 'hoy' (today) phase of predictable production and launch execution within the next roughly three months, timing that he notes would coincide with the anticipated SpaceX IPO around the end of Q2.