Episodes

Declined to give a specific 2028 revenue figure when asked, keeping remarks to the stated 2027 goal; noted the demand drivers tracked for 7-8 years of company history remain intact and stronger by the day.

The most difficult aspects of R&D — high power production, large sensitive aperture, high processing power via the custom ASIC, and cost-effective power generation — are complete and integral to current operations. New opportunities being explored include radar, power generation, and multiplying spectrum usage via AI combined with the large aperture, which could multiply the usable spectrum (e.g. from 50 MHz) by an estimated 3x to 10x — explicitly framed as a future possibility, not a firm commitment.

In response to a question about a specific AST patent for thermal management (dissipating heat locally at each antenna, redirecting heat during extreme cold): the company vertically integrated 95% of its technology, including power production at roughly 10x lower cost per square meter than historical satellite manufacturers, enabling it to dissipate significant wattage per square meter within space power constraints — a differentiator relevant to future data-center-in-space and AI spectrum-management opportunities. Avellan reiterated the largest addressable market is still true broadband direct to the handset, positioning space as a 'third leg' of communications alongside Wi-Fi and cellular.

Speculating on rumors that AST might acquire Iridium or a similar company, Anpanman argues this is unlikely given management's no-near-term-fundraising stance and technical complications — Iridium holds only one spectrum band (no dedicated uplink/downlink), which would require time-division rather than full-duplex operation and add significant complexity; he thinks spectrum expansion is more likely via partnerships than M&A.

CFO Andy Johnson said the company is acutely focused on reaching profitability so it no longer needs to raise capital; Anpanman doesn't expect the company to pursue buybacks or dividends even once profitable, arguing it should keep reinvesting in R&D and new opportunities (defense, AI data centers) rather than risk falling behind like legacy companies that prioritized capital return over reinvestment.

For comparison, Street consensus for 2027 (based on 7 analyst estimates) is $726 million; Anpanman argues that if the company hits even a conservative ~$900 million in 2027, analysts will likely need to cut 2026 estimates but raise 2027 estimates.

Citing a tweet by Kevin Chen, Anpanman lays out the revenue trajectory: 2024 revenue of $4.4 million, 2025 at $71 million, 2026 guided to $150-200 million, 2027 targeted near $1 billion, with 2027-2028 potentially at least doubling to $2-3 billion, and end-of-decade revenue potentially around $7-10 billion (his own extrapolation/spitballing).

Anpanman compares the setup to Palantir, which he cites as doing about $7 billion of revenue this year at an 84% gross margin and roughly $4.2 billion of EBITDA (2025 revenue $4.5 billion growing to $7.2 billion in 2026 and $10.3 billion in 2027), trading at 47x 2026 revenue and 33x 2027 revenue; he argues AST's disclosed 90%+ margins on high-quality recurring revenue merit a similar high-multiple, software-like valuation rather than comparisons to low-margin space-hardware peers with 30-50% EBITDA margins at best.

Management discussed capturing commercial AI opportunities including precise geolocation (which Anpanman interprets as a GPS/PNT alternative) and radar/sensing technology; Anpanman speculates there are additional undisclosed defense use cases such as jamming/electronic warfare that the company wouldn't discuss publicly.

Abel Avellan discussed the possibility of multiplying spectral efficiency from the current roughly 3-4 bits per hertz by a factor of 3 to 10x; Anpanman calls this a huge claim (flagging it as something he's not fully sure how to interpret) and speculates it could relate to AI optimization work, possibly involving Cohere, which he says is speculated to be a partner.

The company said it can already exceed the previously stated 120 Mbps peak data rate; Anpanman infers this suggests BlueBird 6 testing is going well, and floats (as speculation) that if spectral efficiency gains of 10x prove real combined with enough satellites on low-band spectrum, AST could eventually replace terrestrial towers in suburban (non-dense) areas.

Management reiterated the company's bent-pipe architecture processes signals at the ground gateway (eNodeB) rather than onboard the satellite, making the network protocol-agnostic across 4G, 5G, and eventually 6G (Abel jokingly said even '7G'); Anpanman contrasts this with Starlink, which he says puts the eNodeB/processing on the satellite itself, creating higher long-term obsolescence risk if protocols evolve, though he notes Starlink's ~3-year satellite life may limit that risk in practice.

Anpanman speculates, based on Space Mob due diligence, that British Telecom, Telecom Italia, and one other carrier may also join SatCo, and notes the company said on the call that it was not done with Mobile World Congress announcements, implying more partner news could come that week.

Anpanman speculates Deutsche Telekom's Starlink announcement is also strategically timed to support EchoStar/SpaceX's push for renewal of European 2 GHz spectrum rights, which comes up for reallocation in May 2027; he flags the wildcard that Elon Musk is not well-liked in the EU as a factor to watch in how that spectrum gets allocated.

Anpanman frames the direct-to-device market as an emerging duopoly rather than zero-sum: many carriers will likely use both AST and Starlink for different needs (e.g., data sovereignty and network control favoring AST versus other operational tradeoffs favoring Starlink), with some markets seeing multiple carriers split between the two providers.

The company reiterated having 13 launches lined up across various vehicles, including New Glenn for BlueBird 7, and previously said it has launches booked for roughly 75 satellites in total; Anpanman assumes that overbooking figure still holds, though the company did not explicitly restate it this call.

The company signed an agreement with a new heavy launch vehicle provider, becoming a standby customer on its manifest; Anpanman speculates (unconfirmed) this is Mitsubishi Heavy, citing Mitsubishi's recent successful launches, historical Japan Import-Export Bank financing angles, and AST's close relationship with Rakuten, plus an earlier Abel name-drop of Mitsubishi on the Q3 call. Other candidates he considered and largely ruled out include Falcon Heavy, Ariane, and ULA.

BlueBird 7 is expected to launch on New Glenn 3, which Anpanman expects in March 2026 (guessing second half of March, explicitly not March 6 as one tweet had speculated).

After the April 2026 batch shipment of new composite BlueBirds, Anpanman expects roughly 2-3 weeks of integration time before launch, putting the next big batch launch in late April or early May 2026; based on Abel's on-call comment about having '1 batch of 6' ready to ship in April (rather than two batches of 3), plus due-diligence suggesting a New Glenn slot may be freeing up, Anpanman speculates this next launch will be New Glenn 4 carrying 6 (potentially up to 8) BlueBirds, which would be a notably fast turnaround for Blue Origin about a month after New Glenn 3.

In response to a listener question, Anpanman estimates (without certainty) that Rocket Lab's Neutron could fit about 2 BlueBird satellites per launch, though he's unsure whether using Neutron would be economical alongside New Glenn as the primary heavy vehicle.

Cantor Fitzgerald (analyst Colin Canfield) kept its price target at $80 with an overweight rating overnight; Anpanman guesses Canfield wants to see the first new-batch shipment succeed before raising the target.

Anpanman expects UBS ($43 price target) to potentially raise its target somewhat while staying neutral, Barclays (underweight, $60) to possibly nudge its target up while staying underweight or neutral, and bulls Deutsche Bank and ClearStreet ($137) to likely hold steady; he predicts other analysts will stay broadly neutral on ratings tomorrow.

Unlike other space companies (he cites Rocket Lab, BlackSky, and Redwire as having negative reactions to their own recent quarterly results), AST's stock traded up on the print despite the production/launch delays, which Anpanman attributes to the market already expecting some delay and being more focused on the strongly bullish revenue, cash, and margin disclosures.

Kook opens by saying this week's news 'magnifies the importance' of what AST SpaceMobile is doing, noting that concepts which would have been dismissed as hypothetical two or three years ago (government/military dual-use applications) are now materializing, and that skeptics/experts previously scoffed at these dual-use capabilities as 'pipe dreams.'

Kook says the total contract budget was $50 million available to 18 other competing companies, and AST SpaceMobile took $30 million of that, or roughly 60% of the available budget — his interpretation being 'we swept it' and that AST 'must have something special.'

Kook speculates (without confirming) that the timing of this government contract suggests things are 'going pretty well' with FM1 (fully unfurled and communicating) and FM2 (sealed in the fairing awaiting launch), i.e., that government interest is percolating alongside technical progress.

Kook references a table from @SpaceGrammys comparing government revenue received by various space companies, noting AST SpaceMobile's entry is currently blank/minimal, while he expects government revenue will remain 'a very small minority' of AST's total revenue even as it becomes strategically important, unlike for Palantir or SpaceX/Starlink where government revenue is a larger share.

Kook frames his investment thesis as a 'why now' question borrowed from venture-investing logic: the necessary condition is global smartphone adoption, but the actual enabling factor for a viable satellite network business is that launch costs have plummeted — citing a drop from about $28,000 per kilogram to about $5,000 per kilogram thanks to SpaceX — which he contrasts with the high launch costs that undermined 1990s constellations like Iridium and Teledesic.

Kook identifies AI-driven mobile demand as an additional, newer 'why now' factor not fully appreciated when the original investment thesis was formed, citing a Samsung statement that smartphones are expected to be the main vehicle for consumers to access AI, which he argues will drive increased demand for connectivity and data, and for AST's ability to help operationalize spectrum.

Kook describes New Glenn 3 launch preparations underway: landing platforms practicing recovery exercises, the fairing moving into the mating facility, and the engine skirt being transported by road, with a static fire test still required before launch.

Kook estimates the New Glenn 3 launch could happen 'anytime in the next 2 weeks' from the time of recording, but is unsure whether the company will send out launch invites given schedule uncertainty (in contrast to SpaceX's more predictable Falcon 9 timing).

Kook connects recent geopolitical events (referencing Iran and a described missile defense of a U.S. carrier group, the USS Abraham Lincoln, where Aegis systems intercepted incoming threats) to the strategic value of resilient space-based communications and sensing, arguing this validates the 'why now' thesis for military-grade satellite connectivity.

Kook cites a tweet noting the Pentagon's 2026 budget plans include $7.2 billion for space-based sensors, and references a Wall Street Journal report that ballistic missiles aimed at the carrier group were detected in their launch phase using an EWAC surveillance aircraft; Kook speculates AST SpaceMobile's constellation could eventually replace or supplement such aircraft-based detection with more reliable, broader LEO coverage.

Kook quotes Defense Secretary Hegseth as saying (paraphrased), 'I ultimately don't care what company name is on the side of the satellites, engines, or space case or space planes — the question is, can it scale, and can we scale it fast enough,' framing this as the challenge AST SpaceMobile is positioned to meet for Golden Dome-related defense applications.

Kook argues that as the AST SpaceMobile investor community ('space mob') has accumulated more due-diligence knowledge over time, panic and 'boogeyman' fear around stock declines (citing a recent drop from $130 to $80) has lessened, even as frustration about price declines remains.

Kook cites a LinkedIn article by Mobile Network editor Keith Dyer describing Vodafone's technical team as 'very firm on the rightness of its technical choice' and 'prepared to lose first mover advantage and wait for the tech to be right,' which Kook interprets as validating AST SpaceMobile's approach over rushing to market.

Kook argues AST SpaceMobile's 'bent pipe'/transparent-payload architecture (keeping the base station on the ground and only radio-head antennas in the satellite) is strategically important because it maintains 3GPP compliance, protects mobile network operator data sovereignty, and preserves backward compatibility — reasons he believes carriers like Vodafone and Rakuten remain firm on AST as their technical choice over alternatives.

Kook references commentary (via Anpanman, attributed to 'Dr. Mike') from an American Tower earnings call stating that 6G is likely to be designed with satellites as an integral part of an integrated network, which Kook frames as evidence the industry is moving away from viewing satellite connectivity as just a niche 'dead zone' filler toward a core network component.

Kook argues that despite claims Starlink Direct-to-Cell erased AST SpaceMobile's first-mover advantage, AST remains the true first mover in seamless, standards-based next-generation network connectivity from space, characterizing Starlink's approach as a 'jerry-rigged IoT system.'

Kook claims mobile network operators tested SpaceX's Starlink direct-to-cell service and then blocked it because it was interfering with their terrestrial spectrum, and argues MNOs recognize that partnering with SpaceX (which is not carrier-neutral and competes with them directly) is like 'leading the wolf into the henhouse.'

Kook discusses a geography argument from his own due-diligence document: drawing 100-kilometer interference buffers required for SpaceX's satellite operations around European countries would effectively 'delete' entire countries from coverage, meaning SpaceX cannot cover large parts of Europe, whereas he argues AST SpaceMobile's architecture does not have this limitation.

Kook notes SpaceX has stated goals for a new product using its S-band spectrum (for which it paid $20 billion), acknowledging SpaceX has real spectrum assets but questioning whether it can achieve the necessary beamforming and how it will access customers given the carrier-neutrality issue.

Kook notes the Vodafone joint venture formerly known as 'SatCo' has been renamed 'Satellite Connect Europe,' and says the JV continues to pursue access to 2 GHz spectrum from EU regulators while announcing growing numbers of MNOs signing letters of intent (LOIs).

Kook speculates that Europe will feel competitive pressure to invest in these sovereign satellite capabilities given recent U.S. geopolitical/military demonstrations, and believes the Iris² (Iris squared) European sovereign satellite program is 'past the point of no return,' though how it will interact with Satellite Connect Europe remains unclear to him.

Kook says he believes the European JV (Satellite Connect Europe) will ultimately produce billions of dollars of revenue, framing Europe as a market that can only really be served by AST SpaceMobile because of the beamforming/interference constraints that limit SpaceX's coverage there.

Kook argues the SpaceX IPO will be a major event for Wall Street that increases awareness and liquidity around orbital telecom broadly, which he believes should benefit AST SpaceMobile even though the ultimate share-price impact is uncertain.

Kook describes a conversation with an unnamed telecom-background community member ('Space Marauder') about historically large IoT connectivity contract sizes and use cases that failed to materialize a decade ago for commercial reasons, saying he is withholding details until that person publishes their own write-up.

Kook cites a chart from 'Battery Commodities' showing the total number of IoT-enabled devices rising sharply, and shares a personal anecdote about tagging his belongings with Apple AirTags, speculating that a satellite-powered AST SpaceMobile-enabled AirTag-like asset-tracking product could become a low-cost, high-value use case.

Kook mentions a 'nice thesis review' tweet from an investor referred to as Michael Sickand (of the 'Kraken' investment), noting Sickand has increased his conviction in AST SpaceMobile based on the enormity of the numbers involved in the opportunity.

Kook previews the upcoming quarterly earnings call (scheduled for the day after this episode), expecting the company to discuss New Glenn 3 launch progress, FM1 initial testing results, evolving regulatory pathways, and their FCC filings, while likely avoiding detailed comment on the Ligado matter since it remains an active bankruptcy case.

Kook predicts management will describe 'Batch 1' as ready, drawing a comparison to an earlier instance (August) when the company said FM1 was 'ready to ship' but it did not actually ship until October, joking that the company's definition of 'ready to ship' can be loose (his own preferred definition: ready if the launch vehicle could accept the payload at the processing facility).

Kook states he believes the company will miss its guidance of 5 launches in Q1 2026 given only about 30 days remain in the quarter, but expects a March launch (FM2), then one or possibly two launches in April, with a more predictable, high-frequency launch cadence developing by May-June 2026 as the 'constellation constipation' clears.

Kook expects the earnings call to cover Golden Dome and other government contract wins, and hopes management will clarify the distinction between prime and non-prime contractor roles, what other partners they work with, and how these government relationships fit together.

Kook expects an update on the Satellite Connect Europe strategy, though he doubts the company will reveal much detail on spectrum negotiations; he also expects reassurance on the strong balance sheet and 'fully funded' status, arguing that raising additional capital later doesn't contradict a 'fully funded' claim since that term refers to currently planned commitments, not all future opportunities.

Kook speculates the company may set up a separate government-focused corporate shell and potentially separate production facilities for dual-use/government satellites (which may require different hardware like optical inter-satellite links), while noting that dilution from such deals has so far been minor (around 2% of share count).

Kook predicts the company is nearing an inflection from what he calls a 'mañana' (tomorrow) phase to a 'hoy' (today) phase of predictable production and launch execution within the next roughly three months, timing that he notes would coincide with the anticipated SpaceX IPO around the end of Q2.

Markets initially reacted negatively over the weekend then rebounded and were only down slightly as of the episode, which Anpanman attributes to the market having already priced in some probability of military intervention given weeks of visible US military buildup in the Middle East.

Reports suggest Russia and China are not intervening militarily or economically to help Iran, and most of the rest of the Middle East region is either supportive of the strikes or taking a step back, aside from Iran's proxies.

Iran has retaliated with missile strikes, including a reported hit on a refinery in Saudi Arabia, but a large share of Iran's missile launchers have reportedly been targeted and destroyed once exposed during launch.

Anpanman flagged that if the strikes had failed to remove Iran's leadership, the market reaction could have been much worse, citing a contact ('Allied Capital') who noted extremely negative put-option hedging positioning heading into the weekend.

Anpanman argues investors should review portfolio names for exposure: airline holders may need to reassess given rising oil prices and potential travel disruption, whereas space and defense names should benefit from demonstrated relevance of space assets in the conflict.

Chinese social media accounts claimed to have cataloged US aircraft at Middle East bases before the strikes; Anpanman speculates this may have been a US deception operation (parking decoy jets while flying others), with Planet Labs imagery cited by some as having been used to track strike damage in Iran.

A Chinese social media post referenced GPS jamming occurring in the Strait of Hormuz, which Anpanman says underscores the value of AST SpaceMobile's work on backup GPS/PNT (positioning, navigation, timing) systems for contested environments.

Anpanman characterized the European landscape as one where AST has 'pretty much locked up' the majority of carriers so far.

Anpanman explains the 2028 timing reflects that Starlink's current direct-to-cell satellites are a minimally-viable product using large, non-fixed beams that don't respect country borders, making commercial service difficult until the next-generation satellites are ready.

Anpanman's theory: Deutsche Telekom's announcement is strategically timed to help position EchoStar (which Starlink is acquiring spectrum from) to get its 2 GHz European spectrum allocation renewed ahead of a 2027 deadline, since without a carrier sponsor it looked like EchoStar was not going to get the allocation.

Anpanman believes AST, through its European JV, is well positioned to get a spectrum allocation without needing carrier sponsorship, unlike EchoStar.

Anpanman flags Elon Musk's active anti-European political stance as a wildcard that could hurt EchoStar/Starlink's chances of securing the 2 GHz spectrum renewal.

Anpanman frames Taiwan as strategically important given geopolitical tensions with China and the potential for network disruption in conflict, plus natural disaster risk (typhoons, earthquakes); Taiwan has dense urban coverage but spotty coverage in mountainous/coastal areas that direct-to-device could fill.

Anpanman speculates AST may sign additional Taiwanese carriers following the Taiwan Mobile deal.

AST SpaceMobile was set to report earnings after market close the same day; Anpanman's guess is the call will bring color on production cadence, possibly a confirmation of six satellites per month, plus an update on batch launch/delivery and other items.

Anpanman discussed T1 Energy (ticker referenced as TE) as a solar name he covers, arguing sustained Middle East instability and higher energy prices, combined with US focus on energy security/sovereignty, should be positive for solar given surging AI data center power demand — citing a Zero Hedge post that data center construction growth has now surpassed office building construction for the first time.

Advised building a sector watchlist (e.g., for AST SpaceMobile: Rocket Lab, Firefly, Intuitive Machines, Redwire, Karman; for T1 Energy: First Solar, Enphase, SolarEdge, CSIQ) so investors can distinguish company-specific moves from sector-wide beta co-movement.

Iran tensions were percolating; reports today that IAEA inspectors noticed movement/work around a previously bombed Iranian facility raised concern that talks won't resolve things and that the US and/or Israel may move toward an attack this weekend.

Noted today is the last trading day of February, so hedge fund portfolio managers (judged on monthly performance reported to LPs) were further exacerbating moves by cutting risk or 'cleaning up their books' into month-end.

His overall view: inflation is probably cooling, Iran will likely resolve itself, and the AI-jobs pendulum has swung too far — but credit market stress is the one he'd watch most closely, since a real credit event spilling into equities (akin to the Silicon Valley Bank/First Republic failures) could force the Fed to intervene with liquidity.

Despite the positive SatCo news, the macro backdrop is 'too strong' today, so AST is selling off along with the rest of the space sector.

AST SpaceMobile and Rocket Lab trade in tandem as space-sector proxies — when one moves, the other tends to follow — so Rocket Lab's weakness is contributing to AST's decline today on top of broad high-beta selling.

Things to watch for in Monday's update: an update on production and launch cadence, whether satellite batches get shipped down to Cape Canaveral and when, timing of the next Falcon 9 launch, and — expected — a firm launch date for Blue Origin's New Glenn carrying BlueBird 7.

Someone on Twitter floated March 6, 2026 as a potential BlueBird 7/New Glenn launch date, which he thinks is aggressive; other data points he's seen corroborate a date more like March 8 or sometime thereafter, though the actual date will be confirmed Monday.

Earlier this week, a viral piece (he recalled as from 'Citrini') envisioning a 2028 scenario where AI disrupts a large share of white-collar jobs and unemployment rises to 10% sparked an AI-jobs panic ('doommaxing') that rattled the market before dying down as flaws in the analysis were digested.

Argued there will be winners and losers from AI displacing white-collar knowledge work, but that a certain element of human experience and judgment can't be replaced; predicted the pendulum currently swinging toward 'AI everything' will eventually swing back once people recognize its limits.

Used sports, music, and content creation as examples where human empathy and appreciation of achievement can't be replicated by AI, predicting a future bifurcation where audiences seek out human-generated content (analogous to consumers paying a premium for organic food) even as AI-generated content becomes more prevalent.

The Street reportedly still expects EOS's long-term gross margins to reach roughly 16%, 33%, and 28% in out years (exact years not specified), but Anpanman questioned whether revenue-multiple valuation is appropriate at negative gross margins.

Contrasted EOS's brand-new, unproven enterprise battery-storage technology with T1 Energy, which already operates a running, profitable solar module plant and is building a new solar cell fab based on proven Trina Solar designs rather than novel technology — a very different execution-risk profile.

Checked institutional ownership overlap between T1 Energy and EOS and found some overlap but 'not really that much,' suggesting cross-ownership-driven de-risking only partly explains any co-movement between the two.

Software credit has underperformed significantly as private-equity firms (e.g., Vista, Thoma Bravo) that historically ran leveraged buyouts of legacy enterprise software now face disruption risk from AI-native tools (citing Anthropic/Claude as an example of companies building their own tools instead of buying legacy or SaaS software); banks, BDCs, and PE firms have taken large marks this quarter as a result.

Warned that if further credit blowups occur and stress spills into equities, it could force the Fed to intervene with liquidity similar to the Silicon Valley Bank/First Republic episode, and flagged this as the biggest tail risk to watch versus Iran or the AI-jobs narrative.

Reiterated his long-standing advice to avoid heavy margin/leverage and use it only tactically and sparingly, since being overleveraged can force liquidations at the worst possible time regardless of conviction in a position.

Described an anonymous Twitter trader (previously successful with Tesla and Lemonade on margin) who had roughly a $90 million portfolio — about $19 million of equity margined for another ~$20 million — long a stock referred to as 'PATH,' who has since been forced through repeated margin calls and is now down to about $1 million.

Warned that selling cash-secured or naked puts is not 'free money,' citing traders who sold way-out-of-the-money EOS puts right before its earnings miss and resulting 30-40% stock decline; selling puts while also long stock compounds risk exponentially as losses grow.

Advised investors to re-underwrite their thesis during selloffs — ask whether anything company-specific has actually changed versus just the macro/valuation environment — and that it's fine to do nothing or to take losses and degross if overextended, rather than 'holding on for dear life.'

Clarified that despite Twitter chatter suggesting T1 Energy reported earnings this week, the company has not officially set an earnings date; last year it reported March 17th, and Bloomberg has it penciled in for around the same time this year. Expects the eventual report to cover 45X tax credit monetization, the Austin G2 solar cell fab buildout, and offtake agreements.

Anpanman opens by describing a snowstorm in New York City and a rough day in the broader market, which he attributes partly to an article/report (referred to as 'the Setrini report' or similar) painting a dire picture of how AI could disrupt the economy and markets; he says the piece paints the worst-case scenario and ignores potential benefits and humans' preference for non-artificial, human-generated content.

Anpanman argues that as AI-generated content proliferates, there will eventually be a market premium on human-generated content and authentic products/experiences (drawing an analogy to organic food and handmade Swiss watches), potentially followed by a backlash and new regulations if AI content quality/trust issues get bad enough.

Anpanman argues that space/satellite businesses like AST SpaceMobile are comparatively insulated from AI disruption because building a 4-5 ton satellite capable of direct-to-device communications, radar sensing, and PMT/military applications, then launching, testing, and operating it, is an inherently physical, capital- and time-intensive process ('moving atoms') that AI can optimize but cannot replace; he contrasts this with finance, legal, and outsourced customer-service work, which he sees as more exposed to AI disruption.

Anpanman pushes back on a comment he saw on Twitter/X claiming 'AST SpaceMobile is not a defense stock,' asserting the company clearly is a defense stock given it is winning multiple government/military awards and is well positioned for Golden Dome and proliferated warfighter programs.

Anpanman believes this award was originally expected to be granted at some point in 2025 but was delayed by the U.S. government shutdown.

Space Mob community members reviewed the program's parameters and found that the Europa Track 2 Commercial Solutions program had roughly $50 million total available, to be split among a pool of about 19 participating companies including AST; AST's $30 million award represents about 60% of that total pool, which Anpanman reads as a strong signal of SDA confidence in AST's ability to deliver.

This SDA Halo Europa award is separate from, though under the same 'Golden Dome' program umbrella as, the earlier MDA SHIELD Golden Dome award AST received (Anpanman says that was announced in January); a third area, referred to as a potential 'Golden Dome Noble' award addressing space-based sensors and integrated non-kinetic/electronic warfare, has not yet been awarded, though Anpanman says Space Mob's track record calling these awards has been '100%' correct on substance, just off on timing.

Anpanman calculates that if the $30 million Halo Europa award had landed on time in the second half of 2025 (absent the government shutdown delay), it would have pushed reported second-half revenue to a range of roughly $93 million to $105 million — significantly above the high end of the $50-75 million guided range — which he believes would have been a much stronger headline for the company.

Anpanman plans to ask company management on the upcoming quarterly call whether this award was originally expected in the second half of 2025 and whether, absent the delay, revenue would have come in above the guided range.

Anpanman posted an analysis (partly generated with the help of ChatGPT, which he says he reviewed and vetted) sizing the opportunity using Iridium as a comparison: Iridium, a low-band voice/data proprietary satellite phone system used globally, generates roughly $260 million per year in revenue from its Department of Defense and other government agency work, despite offering limited data capacity.

Anpanman argues AST's broadband, 3GPP-compatible direct-to-device capability (usable by warfighters, drones, jets, missiles, planes, and unmanned underwater vehicles) could be worth at least as much as Iridium's $260 million figure for even a single use case, and that if AST can capture 3-4 such use cases each worth roughly a quarter-billion dollars a year, the cumulative government revenue opportunity would be substantial; he clarifies this isn't about displacing Iridium, since the government wants to retain Iridium alongside additional providers like AST and Starlink for redundancy.

Beyond the initial $30 million prototype award, Anpanman describes a growth path: additional task orders (tens of millions to low hundreds of millions, covering more demo work, mission threads, and capacity buys), then transition to the 'proliferated warfighter' structure (potentially hundreds of millions in revenue, which he has tweeted about), and eventually — once the constellation is fully operational and AST is selling capacity as a service like Iridium — the possibility of a multi-year, multi-billion-dollar DoD contract.

Anpanman cites a tweet from the Department of War's CTO reading 'orbital supremacy, one satellite at a time, powered by the arsenal of freedom' as evidence the U.S. government is explicitly signaling where defense space dollars are headed, and argues AST — with 11 awards already — is clearly well positioned to capture part of this budget shift.

Anpanman guesses BlueBird 7 (Block 2) will launch around March 6-8, 2026, noting that a delay to NASA's Artemis mission has freed up a launch slot for Blue Origin's New Glenn 3 rocket that could benefit AST's timeline.

Some in the Space Mob community are bullish about an upcoming multi-BlueBird satellite batch delivery/shipment that they expect soon; a U.S. market application is pending with the FCC and could be granted any day; and the Golden Dome Noble award has no definitive timeline but could be announced at any time, with Anpanman noting the Trump administration wants Golden Dome operational before the end of his term, implying pressure to move quickly.

Anpanman closes by saying he believes the stock has been artificially suppressed by negative macro sentiment, and expects a strong reaction once a firm launch date is set and quarterly results/updates are delivered.

Kook states he has an 'imprudently large' personal position in ASTS, describing it as too big for one person to reasonably hold, and says he had moments where he felt he might lose the investment and had a 'mental breakdown' during the process before it started to look like a bet that will work.

Kook explains that when his firm identifies a true category creator (versus a company chasing a mediocre market and destined to be a distant #3 player), he goes into 'risk-on' mode, because being a distant #2 or #3 leaves a company exposed ('toast, roadkill') in a downturn, whereas a category-creating #1 tends to build durable market share, better economics, better margins, and better capital access that compound into defensible moats. He cites his experience with Carvana versus also-ran online car sellers like Shift as an example of the distant-#2/#3 risk.

Kook says he considers himself a 'one-hit wonder' investor rather than someone with consistently great pitch recognition (comparing himself to the band Spacehog and its one hit 'In the Meantime'), and says if this AST SpaceMobile bet works out, he doesn't plan to ever need to make another investment.

Kook describes his investing 'edge' as having no informational edge at all — just patience, the willingness to sit on a nonlinear potential outcome, and the discipline not to overtrade or get 'sideswiped by volatility' in a market full of high-frequency traders and AI trading; he says he doesn't consider himself a contrarian since many people already believe in the AST SpaceMobile thesis, he just has to 'believe longer.'

Kook says the launch still requires a static fire of New Glenn 3 and range clearance; he notes NASA's Artemis mission appears unable to launch in March 2026, which would clear the launch range for New Glenn 3 to fly, possibly as soon as March 6 — describing this as something the community is closely monitoring rather than a confirmed date.

Kook contrasts Artemis (which he characterizes as an 'ungodly expensive' public program with chronic delays and political ('pork') dynamics) with commercial launch programs like New Glenn, framing the range-clearing dynamic as an example of public versus private space initiative tradeoffs.

Kook cites a new Deutsche Bank estimate of 356 satellites in orbit by 2030, more than AST's current 243-satellite authorization, which he interprets as the bank now modeling an additional satellite 'shell' — possibly informed by company conversations indicating AST is 'not done at 243' and sees more addressable market, consistent with prior comments from Scott Wisniewski about additional shells, including dedicated government shells.

Kook argues that even at $10 billion in revenue with strong growth continuing from there, the stock should command a 'really great multiple,' and frames AST SpaceMobile as belonging in a 'next-generation cable asset' valuation category (alongside how he views SpaceX versus Charter) rather than the traditional satellite sector, which he calls comparatively weak (citing Iridium and Globalstar as poor comparables).

Kook says a frictionless, low-cost consumer experience should generate near-infinite demand versus Iridium-style high-friction, high-cost service, and argues that experienced hedge fund analysts covering many names sometimes default to superficial historical pattern-matching ('we've seen this movie before') rather than distinguishing true analogs from false ones.

Kook explains that AST SpaceMobile's base stations (E-node B) are located on the ground while the satellite functions only as a 'remote radio head' beaming signal to phones — mirroring how terrestrial MNOs scale their existing networks — whereas SpaceX's Direct to Cell architecture puts the base station functionality in space; he credits the account 'Interalia51' for clarifying this distinction, which he says is why AST's model can scale to meet demand the way terrestrial MNOs do.

Kook argues satellite array size, not satellite count, is what matters competitively, saying AST's larger phased arrays let it match or exceed SpaceX's service quality with far fewer satellites than SpaceX's roughly 5,000-satellite Starlink/Direct to Cell constellation — illustrating this with an analogy comparing 5,000 small rafts to a single US Navy aircraft carrier.

Kook notes AST's satellites carry optical inter-satellite links, and cites analysis from 'Katzi' suggesting FM1 is waiting for FM2 to reach orbit so the two can test operating in tandem via these inter-satellite links — capabilities Kook says will be useful for military applications and for interoperability between AST's LEO layer and MEO satellite layers (drawing an analogy to a highway/freeway system), referencing recent Amazon/Terawave commentary on similar MEO-LEO concepts.

Kook references an interview that Anpanman posted (titled 'Hear About It from the Team') and highlights one point from it: that mobile network operators blocked SpaceX's satellite testing due to interference caused by SpaceX's wide side lobes and high adjacent-channel leakage ratio (described as spectrum 'spam,' per analysis from 'Katzi'), whereas those same MNOs are instead working with AST SpaceMobile.

Kook frames spectrum as the scarce upstream resource in the business (analogous to oil), with AST SpaceMobile increasingly acting as a spectrum aggregator rather than purely a 'downstream' operationalizing company, and notes AST continues to meet with the FCC about 2 GHz spectrum access, which he expects will expand over time across multiple countries and fuel monetization beyond earlier expectations.

Kook points to a tweet (from 'Justin') showing a large volume of new AST SpaceMobile job postings as evidence the company is hiring aggressively to deliver on a large opportunity.

Kook muses that because AST's service is designed to be seamless and invisible to the user (unlike an app-based competitor experience), there's a risk consumers won't consciously value it until it's taken away — comparing it to oxygen, where demand only becomes apparent once the service is missing.

Kook notes Blue Origin is ramping its launch schedule, citing new STAs (Special Temporary Authorizations) appearing for New Glenn 5 and 6, and predicts Blue Origin's cadence could start rivaling SpaceX's within the next year, with AST SpaceMobile as Blue Origin's 'marquee client' — adding that this ramp should help drive down AST's launch cost curve.

Kook says AST SpaceMobile has booked a substantial number of SpaceX launches as a fallback option but believes the company has deliberately not disclosed the exact launch allocation across vendors in order to preserve negotiating leverage.

Kook recalls Scott Wisniewski's earlier tweet effectively confirming AST's involvement with Golden Dome (tied to a contract announcement that didn't explicitly say 'Golden Dome' but was widely understood as such), noting that news drove a stock rally that was subsequently given back as the broader market sold off, though he says AST held up relatively well given the macro backdrop.

Kook says rapid hiring and new real estate suggest AST is ramping up a dedicated military production facility, which he says positions the company alongside defense-tech names like Palantir and Anduril, while noting AST is not solely reliant on government revenue the way pure defense contractors are — creating an additional, diversifying path to rapid value creation.

Kook references ongoing geopolitical instability (events in Mexico, unrest in Cuba, tensions involving Iran) as background context for rising demand for next-generation military/defense equipment, suggesting the market has not fully appreciated how important AST SpaceMobile could become as part of that next generation of defense contractors.

Citing real-time inflation data provider Truflation (which surveys many more price points than the government's BLS data, which he says is stale by 2-3 months), Anpanman says the trend shows inflation continuing to crater, and that Truflation has historically led official BLS data by 2-3 months, so he expects rate cuts to continue despite some Fed governors talking about pausing or even raising rates.

He flags the potential for a US conflict with Iran as a source of market uncertainty that could overwhelm company-specific catalysts, hoping for a negotiated peace but noting the outcome is unknown.

For the most recent convertible issue (~$1.15 billion including the overallotment option, conversion price of $116.30, a 20% premium to the ~$96 stock price at pricing), he calculates roughly 9.9 million shares underlie the bond ($1.15B / $116.30). Assuming (his own estimate) 30% of the deal went to arbitrageurs and they hedge at roughly 60% delta, he estimates only about 1.8 million shares needed to be shorted to hedge the deal - a level of selling he believes was likely absorbed within the first day, meaning residual hedging-related pressure on the stock is probably already gone.

Based on the precedent from Bluebird 6's launch with ISRO (where a launch date was set roughly 4-5 days after encapsulation into the LVM3 fairing), he estimates a Bluebird 7 launch date will likely be announced about 4 days from February 24, 2026, implying a possible launch window as early as February 28 through early March, while cautioning that Blue Origin's process may differ from ISRO's.

NASA's Artemis II mission has a target launch date of March 6 from Cape Canaveral; Anpanman expects Bluebird 7/New Glenn to launch either shortly before or after that date, floating March 7th, 8th, 9th, or 11th as alternative windows if Artemis II slips due to weather or other issues.

He raises the possibility of a historic 'dual launch window' at Cape Canaveral where investors could potentially watch both the Artemis II and New Glenn/Bluebird 7 launches; he expects the company to run some kind of lottery system for shareholder launch invites (not tied to number of shares owned), with limited slots since Blue Origin will also be hosting its own guests.

He frames the next 2-3 weeks (launch date setting, the Q4 earnings update, and the launch itself) as setting up 'very bullishly,' though he cautions a US strike on Iran this weekend or soon after could override company-specific catalysts; he says he has personally taken on some upside risk to position for this.

He says seeing the fairing photos with AST SpaceMobile branding was exciting, and frames the joint New Glenn/Bluebird 7 launch (which will also prove Blue Origin can refurbish and re-fly the New Glenn Booster 2) as a potential 'huge coming out moment' for AST SpaceMobile due to the publicity both companies will receive.

He says AST 'perfected their spectrum rights' via an acquisition (he could not recall the acquired company's name) giving them priority rights to 2 GHz spectrum globally, and that AST appears well positioned to receive a 2 GHz spectrum allocation from the EU, expected in May 2027.

Via the Vodafone joint venture, he believes AST is likely to secure some allocation (whether 10x10 or 15x15 MHz remains to be seen), and views the active FCC push as a signal that AST believes EchoStar and Viasat are likely to get 'pared back.'

He expects updates on composite satellite production cadence, including timing for sending the first two batches of three satellites to Cape Canaveral for Falcon 9 launches, plus color on Golden Dome, possible new or updated MNO agreements, non-dilutive funding, and details on the FirstNet/AT&T contract.

He believes the company's FCC application for US market access could get approved 'imminently at any point now.'

He encourages retail investors to submit questions (since the company takes retail questions first before sell-side analysts), specifically suggesting questions on the space-based AI/data-center monetization opportunity - which he says the company hinted at in its last convertible bond issuance - as well as Golden Dome and production cadence.

He notes it will be telling if Morgan Stanley's space-sector analyst (possibly Adam Jonas) asks a question on the call, and says if a JPMorgan analyst also joins, that would signal they're working on initiating research coverage.

Responding to a listener question about achieving 4 launches before Q1 close, Anpanman says that will not happen; he guesses 2 more launches before Q1 close, maybe 3 if lucky - so 3-4 total completed rather than 5, with the rest spilling into Q2 - attributing the pace to the company being deliberate and methodical since each satellite generation launch is a first-time effort.

He reiterates his view that the constellation will reach somewhere near 45 (rather than the more aggressive 60) satellites by year-end, framing the exact timing as less important than the eventual 'inevitability' of the buildout given the service's advantage over Starlink and other competitors.

He notes the stock is down about 40% from its peak of $130 to around $81, despite the company having raised $1.15 billion and having multiple catalysts ahead, and says he expects the stock to return to the $130 level 'pretty soon.'

Kook describes the stock as having gone from about $130 to about $80, jokingly renaming his 'kook bottom' framework after a bout of sciatica; he frames this week's price action as part of normal post-'January effect' cooling rather than a fundamental problem.

Kook attributes part of the recent drop to Scott Wisniewski issuing another convertible bond, which he says broke the stock's prior '$100 floor.'

Kook argues that downturns like this shift shares from weak/momentum-driven holders (who get stopped out) to what he calls the 'rightful,' long-term-focused owners of the stock.

Kook argues the market had already priced in successful deployment (citing a roughly $40 billion market cap at the time), showing 'the market got it right' despite skeptics who doubted the technology would work.

Kook contrasts AST's cautious, step-by-step deployment approach (which he likens to Blue Origin's philosophy) with SpaceX's more failure-tolerant 'blow stuff up for data' approach, attributing AST's caution partly to more limited capitalization historically.

Kook says early indications suggest the next satellite shipment/launch may carry 4 satellites on a Falcon rocket instead of the previously expected 3, which he speculates could reflect the satellites' weight having come down.

Kook explains that since launch costs are largely fixed, fitting 4 satellites instead of 3 per launch helps move toward a long-term target cost of around $22 million per satellite, which he believes Wall Street will react well to.

Kook expects costs to be higher up front and to 'average down' as launches scale, calling this a normal pattern for capital-intensive buildouts.

Kook's 'European correspondent,' analyst Peter Lindmark, shared that the EU Council held a meeting addressing fragmentation across European markets and a push toward a single EU market; Kook argues this supports the logic for SatCo as a pan-European satellite platform rather than each country building its own infrastructure.

Kook says a lot of the FY2025 revenue was gateway sales and similar items, framing this as an early step toward a much larger 'main event' still to come.

Kook mentions Elon Musk publicly mocking Tim Ferriss for posting sell-side analyst estimates showing ASTS revenue reaching roughly $1 billion; Kook says he believes Musk will be proven wrong on this.

Kook describes a vision of AST SpaceMobile as a connectivity platform ('Roblox for Telecom') where third-party developers could build applications (e.g., ocean buoys for tracking submarines, dolphins, or sharks) on top of AST's network via an eventual API, creating revenue opportunities not currently modeled by the company.

Kook cites a tweet from 'Dr. Mike' describing AST's end state as a non-terrestrial network mirroring MNOs' terrestrial networks, dynamically toggled on/off by AI at the base station as a secondary/redundant network — similar to how a power grid dispatches between different generation sources — which Kook says is consistent with AT&T's public comments about utilizing guard-band spectrum.

Kook interprets the FPGA job posting as evidence that AST's addressable market (TAM) in defense is larger than previously appreciated.

Kook describes the dilution from the recent raises as minor ('teeny dilution'), estimating shareholders retain roughly 90% of their prior economic interest after the recent dilution events (his own rough estimate, not exact math).

Kook frames Scott Wisniewski and Abel Avellan as highly rational actors whose economic interests are almost entirely in AST stock, arguing this means any capital raise they pursue reflects an NPV-positive growth opportunity rather than a defensive move.

Kook argues AST should ultimately be valued on a price-to-book basis given its IP and defensible moats, suggesting a high multiple (e.g., 30-to-1) is plausible for capital that reinforces competitive moats and scale, unlike a bank trading near 1x book.

Kook uses an Indy 500 pit-stop analogy for capital raises: temporary dilution/slowdowns ('pit stops') that provide the fuel needed to keep growing, arguing AST is now 'funding to capture upside opportunities' rather than funding to mitigate downside risk.

Kook speculates that AST SpaceMobile could acquire Iridium, explicitly noting he has no position in Iridium and does not know if a deal will happen; he views Iridium's current satellite constellation as having little long-term value but sees potential value in its existing book of business, global spectrum, and ground infrastructure (satellite operational control centers, ground stations).

Kook's thesis is that AST could acquire Iridium's book of business, run off Iridium's narrowband service on its existing constellation until AST's own network scales, then upsell those customers to full broadband service — in the meantime capturing what he estimates (as a guess) as roughly $500 million a year of EBITDA plus global L-band/S-band spectrum access.

Kook speculates this AI-related language could point toward a spectrum-lease-style deal (potentially related to Iridium) or toward AI data centers in space, and separately speculates it could reflect a partnership with Blue Origin — either building satellites for Blue Origin or licensing AST's large on-orbit solar power mechanism — but says the exact nature and timing are unclear.

Kook says he expects AST's full SCS (Supplemental Coverage from Space) commercial approval to be forthcoming 'within a month or two,' pointing listeners to FCC filings tracker Justin (@JustBar) for updates.

Kook notes growing inclusion of ASTS in stock indices, which he says functions similarly to new research coverage by reducing the effective public float as passive index funds buy and hold shares.

Kook notes SpaceX appears to be narrowing its public narrative toward the Moon and Starlink rather than Mars, ahead of an eventual SpaceX IPO/prospectus, and observes (citing Tim Ferriss) that Starlink's growth curve has gone from convex to slightly concave over the past three months, though he isn't ready to write off Starlink.

Kook says SpaceX appears to be de-emphasizing its direct-to-cell (D2C) narrative and instead leaning into a broader AI/mega-TAM story via its xAI deal, which he expects will raise general investor awareness of the space sector and ultimately benefit ASTS.

Kook explains that issuing a new convertible bond allows short sellers to borrow and sell shares as a hedge, temporarily increasing supply in the market until those shares find 'natural' long-term holders, which he says typically takes 5 to 10 trading days based on historical patterns around the (roughly $96) issue reference price.

Kook personally added to his position on Friday, expecting continued choppiness this week as new convert-related share supply is absorbed, though he cautions he is 'not a good trader' and this isn't a recommendation.

Kook says he is closely tracking the FM-2 satellite launch and expects it to occur around the time the recent convert's share supply gets absorbed (roughly the following week), and separately expects the next satellite batch to ship 'sometime in early March' (his own estimate).

Kook emphasizes that AST SpaceMobile remains 'very much a 2026 story' for commercial execution, meaning investors should expect to 'get paid on the stock this year' rather than the relevant catalysts being pushed to 2027.

Anpanman states he believes the coupon is 2% and the conversion premium is about 20%, meaning if priced off today's $96 close, the conversion price would be roughly $115/share — he flags this as not yet fully confirmed, noting deal terms would be finalized and priced the following day.

Anpanman frames the ability to raise $1.15 billion via a same-day 'drive-by' deal as evidence AST has become a seasoned issuer with a deep convertible-investor base, which he says also paves the way for the company to eventually access straight high-yield debt/bank loan markets.

Against 369 million shares outstanding, 12.6 million potential new shares equates to about 3.4% dilution, which Anpanman calls 'really tiny,' comparing it to the company's $36 billion current market cap versus a $760 million (elsewhere stated as $700-800 million) market cap in April 2024.

Anpanman says AST's primary controlled global spectrum is its Ligado L-band spectrum in the US (and Canada), which he describes as 25 MHz of dedicated, unencumbered spectrum with no terrestrial service using it, meaning it can be lit up everywhere (not just dead zones) and used to help carriers like Verizon, AT&T, and Bell Canada offload network traffic.

Anpanman identifies three avenues for AST to acquire additional L-band/S-band spectrum globally: (1) partnerships, citing Saudi Telecom (stc), which already holds about 60 MHz of L-band spectrum in Saudi Arabia (30 MHz down/30 MHz up) that AST could light up via its 10-year commercial deal and $175 million prepayment; (2) regulatory allocation processes; and (3) acquisitions in a fragmented global L/S-band market.

Anpanman cites a same-day article in which Orange and Deutsche Telekom, key contributors to the EU's IRIS-2 satellite constellation, expressed doubt the constellation will get off the ground or perform comparably to Starlink, which he interprets as IRIS-2 'starting to fall apart' ahead of the EU's 2 GHz S-band spectrum reallocation process expected in 2027.

Anpanman speculates that in the 2027 EU spectrum reallocation, existing 2 GHz S-band holders EchoStar and Viasat are unlikely to retain allocations, and that AST SpaceMobile (via its SatCo joint venture with Vodafone) is well positioned to win an allocation, with Starlink also a possible contender depending on Elon Musk's political relationship with Europe at that time.

Anpanman interprets 'monetizing the capabilities of our proprietary technology to capture the evolving commercial opportunities related to artificial intelligence' as pointing toward orbital data centers and edge compute, and says the company would not include such specific, unusual language lightly given its typically conservative disclosure style.

Anpanman states the newly unfolded Bluebird 6 (Block 2) phased array can generate on the order of 100 kilowatts of power per satellite — a level he associates with 'Kardashev level 2' power utilization — and speculates (citing unnamed community estimates) it could be closer to 120 kW including the solar tail, versus SpaceX's V3 satellite generation which he says can do about 20 kW while aspiring toward 100 kW in the future.

Anpanman speculates that large tech/cloud companies (he names Google, Amazon, Blue Origin, Microsoft, and OpenAI as examples) are likely reaching out to AST SpaceMobile given its demonstrated high-power satellite platform, patents, and aerospace expertise, though he says he does not know AST's specific plans (e.g., building satellites for others vs. offering compute-as-a-service).

Anpanman says having $4 billion of cash strengthens AST's credibility with government agencies like SDA and MDA when pursuing large contracts, contrasting this with smaller companies on award lists that lack capital to actually execute; he references the Department of War's (Pete Hegseth's) stated shift away from cost-plus contracts toward a 'neo-prime' model requiring contractors to spend their own capital upfront.

Anpanman reiterates a theory previously discussed in the SpaceMob community that Bluebird satellites could 'quarterback' the Golden Dome missile-defense architecture by providing AI-capable command-and-control in space, given their power generation and communication capabilities, alongside other cited use cases like radar sensing, electronic warfare, jamming/spoofing, and backup GPS (the company has reportedly discussed roughly 10 use cases at a prior investor conference).

After this transaction, Anpanman says the two primary outstanding convert issues will both carry a 2% coupon and 10-year maturity, totaling roughly $2.3 billion in size, giving the company a decade to refinance or pay off if the notes don't convert to equity.

Anpanman says the company was previously fully funded for 90-100 satellites and funded through 2027, but this additional capital gives it flexibility to accelerate the design/production of the Block 3 (mid-band) constellation and start pursuing the 'next shell' more aggressively.

Anpanman cites an article claiming xAI is burning about $1 billion per month, and argues SpaceX will need to lean harder on commercial Starlink and launch revenue to fund that cash burn and related data-center R&D, meaning it can no longer credibly withhold launch services from customers as bears once feared.

Anpanman argues this distraction is a competitive tailwind for AST because it could pull SpaceX engineers away from Direct-to-Cell development toward data centers, and poses a philosophical question of whether winning the AI arms race could ultimately be a 'Pyrrhic victory' for heavy AI spenders.

Anpanman reiterates that Starlink's existing Direct-to-Cell service and its future V3-based service will remain technologically inferior to AST's platform based on what is currently known.

Anpanman argues carriers increasingly view AST as the long-term 'partner of choice' over the next decade because AST augments carriers' existing networks rather than competing with them, whereas Starlink's fixed-wireless home terminal service directly competes with MNOs' fiber and 5G home broadband businesses.

Anpanman says AST's challenge now is less about demand (everyone wants to partner) and more about sequencing — deciding which markets/partnerships to prioritize and stage given the constellation cannot serve all markets simultaneously once operational.

Anpanman explains that if the convert is placed mostly with fundamental long-only holders there will be little hedging pressure, but if placed largely with convertible arbitrage funds (he estimates maybe 70% of the issue at roughly a 60 delta), they may need to short an estimated 4 to 4.5 million shares to hedge, creating near-term selling pressure.

In after-hours trading (on Robinhood, which he notes is not fully reliable due to low volume), the stock was quoted around $89, down about $7 from the $96 close.

Anpanman confirms that some market participants likely had prior knowledge of the deal (either through being legitimately 'brought over the wall' as restricted investors, or through leaks), but cautions that trading on material non-public information while restricted carries serious legal risk.

Anpanman says hitting 5 orbital launches by March, a goal he'd floated earlier the same day, is 'not looking likely,' with 3 launches probable and 4 possible; he attributes delays partly to a backup in SpaceX processing (with 1-2 launch pads reportedly down) amid Dragon and Artemis missions competing for slots.

Blue Origin's New Glenn 3 (AST's launch vehicle) is expected no earlier than late February, and Anpanman thinks it will likely slip into February or March; the lined-up Falcon 9 launches are expected to slip into late March or early April.

Anpanman's overall expectation is about 3 orbital launches by the end of March, calling the timeline slip 'not great' but 'not the end of the world,' emphasizing the company's philosophy of not rushing satellites into space before they're ready.

Anpanman notes the successful unfolding of Bluebird 6 materially increased the probability of AST's U.S. commercial market access (SCS) application being granted.

Responding to a listener question on whether this will be the company's last raise, Anpanman says no — if a large government award (he gives a hypothetical $3-4 billion award) required additional spend the company hadn't already allocated for, it would raise the needed capital rather than pass on the opportunity, though he expects future capital increasingly to come from non-dilutive sources like commercial prepayments and eventually debt backed by revenue once commercial service scales; he also notes a pending $500 million Ex-Im financing application still outstanding.

Anpanman argues that raising capital ahead of major positive catalysts (rather than after them, as is more typical in biotech) is deliberate corporate-finance strategy to reward investors who buy in early, and expects further positive catalysts in the weeks/months ahead beyond the known launches.

Using a hypothetical early-Facebook dilution analogy, Anpanman argues dilution used to fund accretive growth opportunities is not inherently bad, pushing back on listener comments framing the raise simply as 'dilution.'

Anpanman closes by saying he and Kook feel comfortable with the rationale for this raise (viewing it as a sign of upcoming opportunities rather than distress), and that he personally added to his AST stock and options position earlier in the day and plans to look for buying opportunities if the stock falls further on the hedging-driven selling.

If BlueBird 6 had failed to unfold, the company would likely have still moved ahead with BlueBird 7, but the troubleshooting and complications from the first test satellite having issues could have slowed things down.

Two of the new 'tuna can' metal spacecraft were built for the SDA-related satellites, BlueBird 6 and BlueBird 7; it has been speculated that a solar tail or other government-requested add-ons may have been included on these, potentially delaying the build.

His guess is that BlueBird 6 was actually unfolded a handful of days before the official announcement; after a satellite reaches orbit, it must be detumbled and stabilized (using magnetorquers and Earth's magnetic field), have its thermal state checked and batteries charged, and the company waits for calm space-weather conditions (no solar flares) before unfolding and then confirms the array and signals are nominal before issuing a press release.

AST's use of low-band cellular spectrum, which propagates through walls, will let its service work seamlessly indoors, in vehicles, and on planes without requiring a clear line of sight to the sky — something Starlink will struggle to match even with the EchoStar spectrum purchase.

His own guess is that 5 orbital launches by the end of March 2026 'is not going to happen' — more likely 3 at best, with about 2 slipping into April.

He recalls the company has booked enough launch capacity for about 75 satellites this year — effectively overbooking relative to the 45-60 target — so Blue Origin's cadence (New Glenn currently carries 6 satellites per launch, rising to 8 once optimized) is a key swing factor.

He encourages the SpaceMob community to be patient with delays of weeks, months, or even quarters, framing the eventual constellation buildout and commercial service launch as 'inevitable' and urging investors to encourage rather than criticize the company for taking the time to do it right.

He expects the company will set a date soon for its Q4 earnings update, which he anticipates will be 'the most important quarter in the company's history' given everything currently in motion.

Anpanman says that quote initially worried him in 2022, but in hindsight it reads as a compliment: AST SpaceMobile — a startup — has now successfully unfolded large phased arrays 7 times (BlueWalker 3, BlueBirds 1-5, and BlueBird 6), putting it in the same elite class as NASA and intelligence agencies, a feat even SpaceX (which was 'terrified' of it) still hasn't attempted.

The company's DNA is described as 'measure twice, cut once' — succeeding on the first attempt every time rather than iterating through failures, which Anpanman contrasts with criticism the company has received for missing self-imposed timelines.

This approach was far more cost-effective and allowed faster innovation than the traditional SpaceX-style method of launching satellites, testing/calibrating them in orbit, and sending up new iterations when problems arose.

Anpanman recalls first hearing about the Block 2 form-factor change from company management in roughly fall/winter 2024, initially not understanding it would involve moving the control satellite from the center and radically changing the unfolding mechanism.

From the early-2025 disclosure to the successful BB6 unfolding, Anpanman estimates it was roughly a 9-to-12-month process to design, build, and fly a completely new spacecraft architecture that still uses the same fundamental 'micron' building block but assembles and encapsulates them differently.

The discarded LVA halves would remain in orbit for a decade or more before deorbiting and burning up, and regulators are now requiring that any jettisoned LVA pieces carry their own propulsion to deorbit faster — an added weight and cost that motivated AST to redesign around a fully self-encapsulated 'tuna can' structure with no debris left behind.

Block 1 fused at most 2 microns together per rigid section before hinges connected them; Block 2 fuses 8 microns together into larger rigid rectangles, reducing the number of hinges and minor-unfold points needed, making the mechanism simpler and less prone to failure — though the fewer, larger unfolding motions place more mechanical stress on each fused section (a 2,400 sq ft unfold versus 693 sq ft).

Anpanman assumes the company reinforced/hardened the hinges and fused-micron joints to handle the added stress from the larger single-arm unfold, though this is inference rather than a company statement.

SpaceMob community members closely tracking the satellite (cited as Katsy and Toad) predicted with high confidence that the array had physically unfolded a few days before the company's official announcement.

Community sleuthing (a post, possibly from a Korean investor following LinkedIn) noted that AST SpaceMobile employees and partner-company personnel were liking a social media post suggesting BlueBird 6 had unfolded according to tracking data, which Anpanman says was used to infer the deployment had likely succeeded before the formal PR.

Anpanman argues that successful space investing requires patience and an understanding that satellite deployment involves risks not present in ordinary consumer product businesses — launch-vibration damage, unhardened radiation-induced chip failures, and extreme thermal swings can all cause failures, and redundant systems (including the phased array's ability to keep operating even if some microns fail) are built in to mitigate this.

Anpanman references community pushback and anxiety on Twitter/Reddit during the days between the presumed unfold and the official announcement, with some fearing the satellite had failed; he attributes this to a broader space-sector sell-off and general volatility amplifying worst-case thinking.

Anpanman relays a comment attributed to community member 'Tut' that founder/CEO Abel Avellan has not sold a single share of AST SpaceMobile stock across its full range, from around $2 to $130, as a reason to trust management's conviction.

Anpanman states the company is now '7 for 7' on major satellite/array deployments with no failures yet, though he acknowledges that at some point a satellite will likely fail or get 'bricked' as the constellation scales.

Anpanman argues AST's Block 2 array/technology is 'far superior' to Starlink's V2/V2.5 direct-to-cell satellites (which he describes as roughly 650 satellites currently in service) and even to Starlink's planned V3 satellites intended to launch on Starship.

Starlink's satellite design is described as simpler and cheaper (a flat plate with solar-panel-style deployables), which allows mass production but limits how large a phased array they can practically deploy, unlike AST's large fused-micron array approach.

BlueBird 7 is expected to launch on Blue Origin's New Glenn 3 as early as late February 2026, though Anpanman thinks it's more likely to occur in March 2026.

New Glenn 3 will most likely reuse the New Glenn 2 booster, though there is a chance a new booster will be used if the New Glenn 2 booster can't be refurbished in time.

Based on due diligence, Anpanman believes the company is already producing satellites at a cadence of about 6 per month, and expects the upcoming Q4/quarterly update to be full of production-cadence detail, with one batch of 3 satellites hopefully shipped to Cape Canaveral by then.

Anpanman states the company will not hit the informally watched target of 5 orbital launches by the end of Q1 2026 — he expects only about 3 total (BlueBird 7 on New Glenn plus one more batch of 3 by end of March), with the remaining 2 batches slipping into April.

Anpanman mentions the company has previously invited investors to launch events via a selection/lottery process, and notes that even without an invitation, good public viewing of the BlueBird 7 launch is available from within a few miles of the Cape Canaveral launch site.

Kook recaps that the market fell apart initially on broad AI-sentiment weakness, then ASTS rallied when investors connected AI/space-datacenter narratives to the stock, then sold off after Amazon announced a fixed-wireless satellite constellation seen as SpaceX competition, before recovering once the market realized that announcement wasn't relevant competition to ASTS.

Kook cites 'US testing began' as an exciting fundamental data point from the past week, framing it as further proof that FirstNet spectrum access is progressing, and separately notes 'the international spectrum is a go.'

Kook discusses an amateur/community visual sighting of FM1 (the first Block 2 BlueBird, i.e. BlueBird 6) that looked 'a little hazy'; based on his own satellite-tracking data (drag data that spiked then settled), he believes the satellite has likely unfurled its antenna array, though the company has not announced it.

Kook lays out three possible explanations for AST not announcing an FM1 unfurl: (1) it hasn't actually unfurled yet; (2) it has unfurled but the company is holding the announcement to package with other news; or (3) it unfurled and the company saw no need to announce since the community (Space Mob) had already tracked it themselves.

Kook says FM2 (the next Block 2 BlueBird) is 'on deck' for launch on New Glenn 3, and asks listeners to DM him any insights — even hearsay — on New Glenn 3's launch date/status so he can cross-check with other sources.

Kook highlights community analyst 'Only Six Inches,' who tracks AST SpaceMobile headcount data and found that headcount growth has gone 'parabolic' even in an era of AI-driven efficiency gains; Kook interprets this as the company aggressively moving to capture a large total addressable market (TAM) rather than waiting to validate demand.

Kook says 'FirstNet is definitely happening,' citing FirstNet officials testifying (a link he included in the show notes) as continued evidence of progress on the FirstNet spectrum opportunity discussed in a prior episode.

Kook describes an adversary-proceeding-adjacent dispute in the Ligado bankruptcy docket where Viasat is 'trying to be annoying,' which he views as proof that the Ligado spectrum access is valuable; he notes the presiding judge does not seem tolerant of parties trying to obstruct the process, and a public notice for Ligado is proceeding, which he expects to lead to further developments supporting AST's future growth.

Kook discusses a newly surfaced data point — he believes disclosed in a Vodafone-related document, though he's not fully certain of the source — showing AST SpaceMobile's satellites can achieve spectral efficiency of about 6 bits per hertz, versus prior community assumptions of roughly 2-3 bits/hertz; combined with spectrum reuse multiplying capacity, he says this points to data capacity far higher than previously modeled. He credits community analyst 'Dr. Mike' (a PhD holder) with finding and detailing this in a retweeted post.

Kook states his 'first commandment' of Space Mob analysis is that 'spectrum will always flow to the most efficient use,' crediting a community member 'Katsy' for the framing, and ties the new spectral efficiency data to this thesis as reinforcing AST's positioning as the most efficient user of spectrum.

Kook notes an FCC filing shows AST SpaceMobile testing with iPhone 17 series phones (a find credited to community member 'Katsy'), and frames this as the 'Apple ASTS story' gaining momentum, contrasting it with prior market reactions where Bloomberg articles about SpaceX-Apple speculation caused ASTS to drop ~10% even though (in his view) SpaceX is merely hoping its system will work with Apple, unlike AST's actual testing relationship.

Kook describes reporting that Apple's vision for the iPhone 18 and later models is to make satellite connectivity 'natural' — eliminating the need to point the phone at the sky, with future iPhones maintaining satellite connections while in a pocket and seamlessly switching between cellular and satellite networks — which he argues effectively describes AST SpaceMobile's technology without naming the company.

Kook cites a Forbes article comparing SpaceX and AST SpaceMobile that states AST SpaceMobile 'is developing much more sophisticated satellites, with massive phased array antennas to compensate for the limited power antennas of today's phones,' quoting an unnamed 'Professor Freya' saying 'what will work best remains to be seen.' Kook views this open-ended framing as evidence the market hasn't yet priced in AST's advantage, supporting his belief the stock still has room to run toward $100.

Kook notes that Michael Pollack, AST SpaceMobile's EVP of Government Operations, is scheduled to speak at 'SatShow 2026'; he says an unnamed, experienced (possibly retired) source told him to watch SatShow, which he views as fitting given AST's ramp-up of its government/defense business.

Kook says Elon Musk revived talk of a SpaceX-branded phone, framing it in terms of reaching an advanced ('Kardashev-level') civilization, and notes Apple has reportedly declined to give SpaceX/Globalstar additional spectrum, prompting Musk to respond combatively; Kook says Musk's denials of the phone plan actually increase his confidence that a SpaceX phone effort is real, calling it consistent with Musk's direct-to-consumer business style.

Kook speculates Musk may be shifting focus toward a proposed AI-data-center-in-space concept — citing up to 1 million satellites intended to power AI/robotics — which Kook thinks could serve as a strategic 'off-ramp' from the direct-to-device market where Musk may have 'mispositioned' relative to AST SpaceMobile; he also notes the SpaceX IPO ('the X ticker') is proceeding.

Kook references a patent find by community member 'Tom Chattafitness' (aka 'Timmy Turbo') showing that AST SpaceMobile CEO Abel Avellan had data-center-related concepts reflected in AST patents from years ago, which Kook cites as evidence Avellan anticipated this space/AI-datacenter direction as well.

Kook says SpaceX has filed last-minute legal opposition ('lawfare') against AST SpaceMobile in an ongoing regulatory docket, that the docket is progressing, and that his own guess is full SCS/FCC approval could come within roughly the next month; he says community member @justbar is monitoring the FCC dockets and will be the one to break the news when approval happens.

Kook attributes recent market turmoil partly to a 'readjustment period' tied to Fed-related dynamics (referencing 'Warsh') and seasonal factors, noting this volatility tends to make people bearish near local bottoms.

Kook warns against a newly available double-leveraged ASTS ETF, explaining that leveraged products suffer significant theta/tracking-error decay in a choppy, non-directional stock and are only favorable if the stock moves in one direction continuously; he reiterates that shorting ASTS is inadvisable and that investors should avoid leveraged vehicles unless they fully understand the mechanics.

Kook closes by restating his belief that AST SpaceMobile is heading toward a $100 stock price, framing the remaining risks/uncertainties as things that, once resolved, should push the stock higher, and urges the community to keep researching, stay disciplined, and remain grateful rather than 'jinxing' the outcome. He says he will host the next session on Sunday, earlier than usual due to being on the East Coast.

He speculated (explicitly uncertain) that Bitcoin could fall further to $30,000-40,000, or could eventually retest its $126,000-128,000 high — 'who knows' — but said he would only buy a small amount at lower levels since crypto is not an asset he wants to hold in size.

He flagged the 'paradox' that software companies seen as AI-disruption targets (FactSet, S&P, Moody's, Morningstar) sold off sharply the same day, which he attributed — with some uncertainty ('I guess it was...') — to Anthropic announcing a new model able to produce a comprehensive research report that would otherwise take a human analyst days.

He argued AI-generated research reports are useful 'primers' but feel flat and lack human judgment, and that his own manual process of building financial models in a spreadsheet (citing his work on T1 Energy's equity offering, convertible notes, and 45X tax credit sale proceeds) is what actually helps him learn and understand a company, versus just reading an AI-generated summary.

He believes markets have swung too far in pricing in software's destruction by AI, drawing an analogy to the overreaction around April tariffs, which he said ultimately did not damage the economy as feared (with SPY recovering from below $500 to around $677) and in some respects helped by forcing manufacturing reshoring (citing new US semiconductor fabs and his T1 Energy solar investment).

He argued investors worried about AI disruption should favor 'hard physical industries' like energy and space, since AI cannot build or launch multi-ton satellites (though it could help operate them), also citing his investment in Strata Critical (a medical logistics/organ-transplant company) as similarly AI-resistant.

His personal rule of thumb, learned across the 2008 financial crisis, the US credit downgrade, COVID, and the April tariff tantrum: get aggressive allocating capital once VIX rises above 50 (extreme fear), and go 'all in' once VIX exceeds 70-80 — a threshold he says he's only seen twice in his career, hitting roughly 84 during COVID and roughly 90 during the 2008 financial crisis.

On new Fed chair prospect Kevin Warsh (whom he described as hawkish), he speculated that despite the hawkish reputation, Warsh — viewing this as his 'last chance' — would likely align closely with Trump, including on cutting/accommodative policy, and that a hawkish background gives him useful cover to justify cuts.

Real-time inflation tracker Truflation showed year-over-year inflation dipping under 1% recently and back to roughly 1% at time of recording; he said Truflation data runs roughly 1-3 months ahead of official Fed data, contrasting this with a Fed governor's comments that inflation remains 'stubborn,' and cited a reversal/selloff in precious metals (which he'd previously flagged as an inflation concern) as additional evidence of disinflation.

He flagged potential US conflict with Iran as a real exogenous market risk, but speculated markets could handle it 'okay' if the outcome were conventional/contained regime change without nuclear escalation (drawing a comparison to a 'Venezuela type' outcome), noting historically wars have often been economically positive.

He explained the risk of selling cash-secured puts in high-volatility periods: even if the underlying stock doesn't move, a spike in implied volatility can sharply inflate the value of an already-sold put (e.g., a put sold for $1 could become worth $3), and if the stock does fall sharply and the put goes in the money, the investor may be forced to take delivery of a stock that fell for a genuinely bad reason (e.g., a failed drug trial in biotech).

He similarly cautioned against covered calls, arguing sellers cap their upside while retaining full downside exposure, and that selling a call against a long stock position is economically equivalent to shorting an in-the-money synthetic put; he said modest covered-call income on a small position portion can make sense but sellers often have a false sense of security about the risk.

He does not think the ongoing deleveraging will push VIX to 40-50, estimating it might reach around 30 (versus roughly 22 at time of discussion), and characterized the liquidations so far as 'somewhat orderly' and across the board.

He warned against anchoring to a stock's prior high (e.g., investors who saw AST hit $130 and refuse to sell any shares on margin because they expect it to return there) as a reason to neglect margin balances, which can force forced selling if the stock later falls (e.g., to $70).

He recommended using pullbacks to 'upgrade' a portfolio — consolidating lower-conviction, less-understood positions into higher-conviction ones — when everything is trading down together at a correlation near 1, since marginal/speculative positions are typically the ones that get cut and can cause the most damage in a downturn.

As an alternative to margin, he described selling some stock to buy call spreads (e.g., buying a call roughly 10% out of the money and shorting a call roughly 40% out of the money) to add leverage more cheaply during high-volatility periods, since a market rebound would compress volatility and let the short call be bought back cheaply.

He disclosed a personal trade: when AST fell to $50 in November (implied 2025), he sold roughly 2,000-3,000 shares and used part of the proceeds to buy January call spreads, which he said ultimately made him approximately $2-3 million when he closed the position with the stock around $90.

He advised setting a pre-planned profit-taking strategy — selling a portion of a position after it multiplies one's net worth by a chosen target, and setting aside money for taxes — so that subsequent drawdowns don't cause emotional distress; he said he repeatedly tells Kook to do this but Kook doesn't listen.

Despite AST trading down to $91-92 intraday and hitting $87 after hours, he said he isn't emotionally affected given his long-term conviction, citing upcoming catalysts, the company being 'on the cusp' of launching commercial service, ongoing defense work, and the administration's focus on space.

He compared AST's price to Bitcoin's over time: in September 2024, when Bitcoin was near $60,000, AST traded around $24; now, with Bitcoin similarly near $65,000 after major deleveraging, AST trades in the $90s (down from a $130 high), which he says reflects substantial fundamental progress despite the recent pullback.

He is bullish heading into the anticipated SpaceX IPO, arguing that beyond the rational sizing of the comms, military, and data-center opportunity, the resulting attention and 'euphoria' will surprise to the upside for the direct-to-device sector broadly.

He speculated that AT&T's pending acquisition of EchoStar's nationwide, unused 20 MHz x 20 MHz block of 600 MHz spectrum could be a 'game changer' if AT&T dedicates it to AST service, and that Verizon might then follow suit and dedicate spectrum for AST as well.

He suggested Apple should consider making a strategic investment in AST SpaceMobile to control its own connectivity 'destiny' as SpaceX/Starlink increasingly moves toward offering its own phone hardware and mobile service.

He speculated SpaceX could ultimately build its own phone operating system, drawing an analogy to how Elon Musk built xAI from scratch and noting Musk's pattern of not relying on others' technology across his companies.

He reiterated his view that AI will not disrupt the space sector or hard physical manufacturing (satellites, microns, processors, solar panels, radiation hardening) the way it may disrupt software, and that AI itself will ultimately be a consumer of AST's communications services and of data-center capacity.

The prior day saw momentum/growth and other high-beta or 'winning' sectors sell off hard versus value, dividend-yield, and consumer-staples names; Anpanman frames this as healthy consolidation after a strong start to the year, not something out of the ordinary.

Crypto's gains since Donald Trump won the presidency have now been completely wiped out, putting crypto around a 50% drawdown from highs; Anpanman notes 80-90% drawdowns are historically 'a feature, not a bug' for crypto and says he personally might start considering re-entering at a 60-70% drawdown, focused on blue chips like Bitcoin or Ethereum.

Risk management advice: do not use margin during periods of high volatility; if using margin, do so judiciously with tight risk limits, and ask whether you could survive another 10-30% drawdown — if not, get off margin.

Compares the current drawdown to the April tariff scare, which in hindsight was a major buying opportunity rather than a lasting problem; cites Kook's comment during a weekend X Space that prior volatility events (COVID, the tariff scare, the 2011 US credit downgrade) all look like 'blips' in hindsight.

Recalls that roughly mid-2025 (around Q3 or over the summer), news leaked that Apple and Starlink were testing together, causing ASTS to drop 10-15% on FUD pushed by Musk-aligned accounts; Anpanman argues this was expected/unremarkable since Apple routinely tests its devices with every satellite service an MNO (in that case T-Mobile with Starlink) wants to use.

Argues that truly seamless, in-pocket, indoor-capable satellite service is only physically achievable using low-band cellular spectrum, and that AST SpaceMobile is the only provider positioned to deliver that — not Globalstar, not Starlink.

Starlink satellites are architected to work only with mid-band spectrum due to phased-array antenna element spacing and wavelength physics; the same satellites cannot be reconfigured to light up 600 MHz spectrum — an entirely new satellite would be required to serve low-band frequencies.

AST's fixed-cell beamforming lets satellites project stationary hexagonal coverage cells on the ground even as the satellite moves, allowing precise, pinpoint coverage of gaps (e.g., an example area between the Hamptons and New York City) without interfering with already-covered areas like NYC's existing terrestrial network — this is what lets carriers reuse their own cellular spectrum via AST and even decommission underused towers.

Starlink's beams move with the satellite and operate at much higher power, which Anpanman says causes interference; as a result, no MNO wants Starlink operating near their cellular spectrum, since it would degrade the carrier's own terrestrial service.

Estimates each AST low-band satellite can generate around 2,500 fixed cells, while Block 3 mid-band satellites will be able to generate around 10,000 fixed cells per satellite.

Compares the implications to 'Avengers Endgame,' arguing Apple, Google, Samsung, and every global MNO 'should be shaking in your boots' because Elon Musk is coming after their core businesses; says AST SpaceMobile's strategic value 'shot up' with this news, though not yet reflected in the market given the broader risk-off day.

Predicts a SpaceX phone would run Musk's own operating system rather than Apple's or Google's ecosystem, consistent with his broader AI ambitions — part of a deliberate Musk 'vertical stack' spanning hardware, OS, and connectivity.

A SpaceX phone would primarily rely on mid-band Starlink Direct-to-Cell spectrum, which Anpanman calls architecturally flawed: it can't support voice over LTE (must use VoIP) because satellite handoffs occur every 2-3 minutes, making voice calls choppy; indoor use would also be poor, potentially requiring a separate Starlink fixed-wireless router/Wi-Fi setup at home.

Expects the service to be pretty bad in dense, high-user areas but decent for data in suburban or remote areas.

Predicts T-Mobile could ultimately be forced into an MVNO-style roaming agreement with SpaceX/Starlink (similar to Boost Mobile or Mint Mobile arrangements), since having introduced the Starlink brand to its customers already, T-Mobile risks losing subscribers to a SpaceX-branded phone and service unless it partners and collects roaming fees.

Frames the dynamic as a 'prisoner's dilemma' among MNOs: whichever carrier partners with SpaceX risks having its subscriber base hollowed out, but may get hollowed out regardless if it doesn't partner.

Concludes that AST SpaceMobile becomes the critical neutral strategic partner — outside the SpaceX/Tesla/xAI ecosystem — for Apple, Google, Samsung, and the ~50 MNOs globally that AST partners with, both for direct-to-device communications and, longer term, for data centers.

Describes AST SpaceMobile as the only non-legacy-prime company building multi-ton (4-6 ton) satellites capable of generating around 100 kilowatts of power with onboard processing — effectively already performing data-center-like functions today, but for communications.

References an Elon Musk tweet or interview from that morning claiming space-based data centers could reach parity with terrestrial data centers within 3 years; Anpanman calls this 'very optimistic' but agrees directionally that space-based computing is where things are headed.

Argues AST becomes central to a coming 'battle for space-based computing and communication' against the SpaceX/Musk ecosystem, given AST's existing relationships with Apple, Google, AT&T, Verizon, Vodafone, Orange, and Telefonica — companies that also run fiber, data-center, and hosting businesses of their own.

Reiterates that AST is 'ramping up to production of 12 satellites a month,' and speculates that once constellation buildout no longer requires that production rate, the company will need a new use for that capacity — implicitly, data centers.

Speculates that a hypothetical future announcement of Apple working closely with AST, or investing (he floats a hypothetical figure of 'a billion dollars') alongside Google's existing investment, would be 'game-changing' for the stock, though he doesn't know if or when this might happen — possibly weeks or months out.

Opens by framing the day's volatility as an expected pullback that had been consensus among institutions for February, noting that the sectors he invests in (space, nuclear, batteries) are up substantially this year and last year, so pullbacks are natural.

Says concern about a potential conflict in Iran contributed to weak headlines earlier in the day, but argues the bigger driver of the pullback was worry sparked by Anthropic's new software tools and fears that AI could disrupt the software industry, noting the software ETF was nearing its April 2025 tariff-scare lows.

Responds directly to a listener (Tim Stobirski) who suggested AT&T choosing Amazon Leo for fixed satellite internet was driving ASTS down; explains AT&T's Amazon Leo partnership is for fixed wireless to connect enterprise customers far from fiber/wireless coverage — a different market from AST SpaceMobile's direct-to-cell service — and calls Amazon Leo complementary to, not competitive with, AST SpaceMobile (analogous to Starlink fixed-wireless-to-home vs. Starlink direct-to-cell).

Argues that at most this news might explain selling only among investors who don't understand the company well, and reiterates that the whole space/growth sector was down similarly that day, so sector beta — not this specific news — explains ASTS's move.

Describes typical pod drawdown limits as an example: an initial drawdown limit around 5% triggers a partial capital cut, 7% triggers further cuts, and around 10% a pod is effectively 'tapped out' — illustrating why funds under these constraints face a 'damned if you do, damned if you don't' choice between buying dislocations or de-risking to survive.

Gives a worked example: a $500 million book down 5% (-$25M) that falls another 2% (down $37.5M total) could get its capital cut in half to $250M, making that drawdown very hard to recover from — explaining why only a small fraction of pod teams at firms like Millennium or Citadel have longevity.

Contrasts this with individual retail investors who aren't running margin or reporting to LPs, arguing retail can go on the 'offense' during forced institutional selling — including tactics like selling stock to buy calls to add risk, or selling low-conviction names to buy more of high-conviction ones.

Argues that positions bought on a hot tip or in a hurry, without real understanding, are the first ones investors panic-sell during volatility ('negative gamma' — buying high on hype, selling low on fear), whereas genuine conviction in a name makes investors more likely to hold or add during a 10-20% drawdown.

Describes using down days to 'upgrade' a portfolio: if a low-conviction name is down 25% and a high-conviction name is down 20%, sell the low-conviction name and add to the high-conviction one.

Says he holds Vodafone 2027 LEAPS ($15 and $17 strike calls) that are up roughly 3-3.5x, and is tempted to monetize some to redeploy elsewhere but is holding because he retains conviction in the trade.

States that if ASTS were down 30-40% while the rest of the sector was down only ~10%, that would signal a real company-specific problem, but since ASTS was down about 13% in line with the sector's 11-18% range that day, it's simply sector beta, not a company issue.

Frames the pullback as a good entry point for investors who have been on the sidelines, while cautioning that a short (1-2 year) time horizon risks 'buying the top,' whereas a 5-year view (analogous to buying real estate in New York or California through market cycles) should work out for names with strong long-term fundamentals.

Says he doesn't hold Rocket Lab currently (though he has in the past and finds it tempting) because he views space names as highly correlated with each other, and his highest conviction is concentrated in AST SpaceMobile rather than spreading exposure across similar names.

Mentions he owns Pagaya (consumer credit exposure) via warrants; the stock has taken a hit amid consumer-credit-market concerns, but he considers himself 'set and forget' on the warrants and is still up overall, citing continued company execution.

Says he watches the AST SpaceMobile Reddit community's sentiment as an informal bottom indicator — when sentiment turns very negative and long-standing bears get upvoted, it has tended to mark a tradable bottom; he says someone told him Reddit was 'flashing all the indicators' that day, though he hadn't checked it himself.

Describes a separate top-indicator he's noticed: when Twitter chatter starts hyping 'the next AST' or 'the next T1 Energy,' that kind of euphoria for copycat ideas can signal the market is overextended and due for a pullback.

Says he thinks $100 is roughly the current support level for ASTS, with the stock trading just under that; recalls that $20 was viewed as the prior support level in the first part of 2025, where the stock consolidated for a long time.

Responding to a listener asking about a possible drop to $50, says he doesn't think ASTS goes that low, citing upcoming catalysts including commercial service launch, military awards, and the broader space-sector interest tied to the SpaceX IPO.

Says he does not believe the broader market is entering a bearish trend, viewing the current pullback as healthy consolidation rather than a trend change, while acknowledging elevated uncertainty specifically around software and consumer-credit names.

Discusses market concern that an incoming new Fed chair nominee, who has previously made hawkish comments, could be bad for markets, but argues Trump likely selected someone who will be dovish/accommodative on rates given the administration's political incentives, drawing an analogy to Marco Rubio's shift from anti-Trump to fully aligned with the administration.

Says alternative inflation measures suggest inflation is still trending down, and his main lingering macro concern is speculative excess in commodities like silver and gold rather than in equities.

Argues the cost per kilogram to orbit needs to fall significantly before space-based data centers can be cost-competitive with terrestrial ones, and that reality is 'far' from that point currently, though he believes space data centers will eventually happen.

Compares current AI infrastructure buildout concerns to the dot-com bubble's overbuilding of fiber/optical networks, but argues today's AI use cases are grounded in real practical demand (unlike some dot-com-era business ideas), so while some overbuild and pullback is likely, he thinks 'it's different this time' — with the caveat that this is a commonly famous-last-words line.

Says there is a backup at Cape Canaveral due to Artemis activity, a Crew Dragon Falcon 9 launch, ongoing construction, and limited launch-pad/processing capacity, compounded by a recent SpaceX Falcon 9 anomaly that requires investigation; says AST will not ship its next satellite batch until the launch site is ready to receive and process it, to avoid straining the relationship with launch providers.

States his 'base case' expectation is that the next near-term launch will be Blue Origin New Glenn 3 carrying FM-2, no earlier than the end of the current month, and that 1-2 additional launches could follow before March 30-31, for a total of about 4 launches in that window — while acknowledging it could slip to 3 launches with 2 more shortly after.

Anpanman states that looking at yesterday's stock price reactions, he thinks the market 'just totally doesn't get it,' and that unlike close followers of the sector, he views the SpaceX-xAI merger announcement as incredibly bullish, with the only real negative risk being that Elon Musk's targeted June IPO for SpaceX could slip somewhat.

Anpanman explains merger mechanics: a public-to-public merger via tender process could close in as little as ~45 days at the short end, but typically takes 4 to 8 months; however, because the SpaceX-xAI deal is a private transaction where the buyer and seller are effectively the same person/party (Elon Musk and shareholders who know each other), and the companies don't compete or overlap (so no HSR antitrust review is needed), he expects the deal to close in a handful of weeks.

Anpanman says the bankers selected for the SpaceX IPO have likely already started drafting an S-1, which will need extra work to incorporate xAI's business overview, risks, and pro forma financials, but that this drafting can occur in parallel with the merger closing rather than delaying the process.

Anpanman concludes that if SpaceX and its bankers 'work their asses off' and the SEC is amenable and cooperative, a June or possibly July IPO is still achievable, and that yesterday's space-sector sell-off was driven by a mistaken assumption that the IPO would be delayed by 1-5 months.

Anpanman argues the SpaceX-xAI combination 'lights a fire under everyone's ass' among AI players who weren't previously prioritizing space, including OpenAI, Google, and Anthropic as the key AI players, plus Microsoft, Amazon, and Apple (whom he describes as 'pretty far behind'), and international players like Samsung.

Anpanman's core thesis: projecting 5-10 years out, the ability to build data centers in space becomes a major competitive advantage for a vertically integrated Elon Musk, forcing every compute-dependent AI company to figure out who to partner with in space; AST SpaceMobile, though focused on direct-to-device and military applications, already has building blocks that could support space data centers, making it a natural partner for these companies (whether through technology partnership, strategic investment, or joint ventures).

Anpanman says he thinks it is not a high probability that a big tech company acquires AST SpaceMobile outright, believing the company has more value as an independent player providing wholesale data and other services; if an acquisition did happen, he says it would need to be by an entity that preserves AST's neutrality among carriers, citing Google as one example of a company that could make sense.

Anpanman extends the argument to Tesla, saying any company competing with any part of Elon Musk's vertically integrated empire will need to find a space partner with relevant expertise and capability.

Anpanman names AST SpaceMobile, Rocket Lab, Voyager, Redwire, Intuitive Machines, and Karman (transcribed as 'Carmen') as companies that become strategically important because of their expertise and know-how delivering systems in space.

Anpanman highlights Rocket Lab specifically: it currently does small launch, is moving into medium launch, and builds space systems including solar-hardened gallium arsenide solar arrays — technology he expects to be in high demand.

Anpanman describes the dynamic among space companies as 'coopetition' — cooperating while also competing — noting SpaceX's Falcon 9 continues to launch competitors' payloads, and he doesn't expect that to change.

Anpanman says he briefly caught up with Kook the previous night, and relays that this merger puts tremendous pressure on SpaceX to make money because xAI does not make money and is described as 'a big furnace' that needs continuous funding to improve.

Anpanman argues SpaceX will need to be more aggressive bringing on external commercial launch customers (rather than only launching its own satellites) because xAI will require ongoing money and investment, and the push toward data centers in space will also require significant capital; he notes Starlink itself remains a strong cash cow generating substantial revenue and free cash flow.

Anpanman argues the push into space data centers will itself create a new source of launch demand, which is a positive for all launch providers even though a large amount of new launch capacity is already coming online in 2027.

Anpanman argues that while terrestrial data-center hardware suppliers like SanDisk, Micron, and Western Digital face some limits to demand on Earth, building data centers in space creates what he calls a functionally 'unlimited' total addressable market for memory chips, processors, and hard drives — which would still be manufactured on Earth but shipped to space in large volumes — benefiting hardware makers and solar companies broadly.

Anpanman predicts that sell-side analysts will eventually catch on to this narrative, perhaps within a few weeks, and recognize that there are only a small number of companies capable of executing this space data-center build-out, making them the ones to invest in.

Kook recalls living through the 2008 Great Financial Crisis while at a hedge fund and says that in hindsight, Netflix's chart shows no visible trace of the crisis despite a 33% peak-to-trough drawdown at the time; he draws the same comparison to Microsoft's April 2025 drawdown, now barely visible as a 'buy the dip' moment.

Kook states ASTS was already down $25 from its peak as of Friday morning, calling the stock's volatility 'astounding,' and says a little further 'blow-off' is his base case for February, though it may have already happened.

Kook argues that although the stock currently has no cash flow, the market is pricing in a future inflection to significant cash flow, and that understanding AST's underlying technology (not just financial multiples) is essential to understanding the investment opportunity, since the platform has multiplying use cases beyond simple communications.

Kook argues that senior defense-prime veterans like Williams have secure pensions, prestige, and comfortable careers, so leaving after 28 years signals a genuinely compelling opportunity; he notes Williams is 'almost assuredly' not joining for cash compensation, since the bulk of wealth at AST historically comes from equity grants, meaning new hires are effectively making a big bet on the stock.

Kook cites a Tough4R analysis noting the hiring of radar experts 'Walcott' and Williams from Raytheon as signaling AST is bolstering its defense capabilities, with phased-array expertise potentially adapting AST's LEO satellites for radar applications like missile tracking and secure comms.

Kook says he tries to track patterns of talent flow into AST as a signal — pointing to his years-old #MeetTheTeam Twitter series profiling AST employees — arguing that when experienced people 'YOLO' their careers into a company rather than just buying the stock, that's a stronger signal than retail buying alone.

Kook lays out three potential layers where AST's technology could fit into missile-defense architecture: the tracking layer (sensing/locating missiles), the transport layer (moving large volumes of sensor data across space), and the custody layer (maintaining track of a detected threat/launcher).

Kook explains that innovations in 5G technology can act like radar: as an object like a missile penetrates airspace, it disturbs an RF/5G signal field (he likens it to seeing 'the ones and zeros bend' in The Matrix), which AST's technology could exploit for tracking even though radar has historically been the domain of dedicated radar companies.

Even if AST doesn't end up providing the radar/tracking function itself, Kook argues AST is well positioned for the transport layer — enabling near-instantaneous global dissemination of missile-tracking data and bypassing terrestrial delays, enhancing real-time missile surveillance for the US government.

Kook says it's unclear which of the three layers (tracking, transport, custody) AST will ultimately win, but doesn't think losing one layer is 'game over,' since the product roadmap and commercial pipeline will keep evolving.

Kook describes a finding by an FCC-docket researcher he calls 'Katsy'/'KATSE': the FCC's filing system shows row numbers for filings with no accessible links or content ('ghost filings'), and six such ghost filings were found in a relevant docket, suggesting redacted/undisclosed filings exist that require special privileges to view.

Kook cites a tweet from 'Only 6 Inches' relaying comments from an EchoStar expert who reportedly says AST is 'number one,' that Starlink will eventually compete directly against MNOs (creating channel conflict), and that AST's satellite size is technologically impressive.

Kook draws an analogy to Tesla, recalling he once thought (but didn't trade on) the idea that revenue/cash flow could be a 'curse' once the market realized Tesla was 'just a car company' during the Model 3 ramp — but Tesla ultimately became a strong investment once revenue materialized, which he suggests is instructive for ASTS skeptics waiting to cover their shorts on positive EBIT.

Kook cites Sequoia Capital partner Shaun Maguire (who covers SpaceX for the firm) calling Starlink's direct-to-cell opportunity 'one of the biggest market opportunities ever,' arguing that Sequoia's institutional track record of spotting large markets lends credibility to the claim.

Kook cites broker figures he received showing SpaceX total revenue at $16 billion, of which $10 billion is Starlink revenue and growing quickly; he notes this doesn't fully explain SpaceX's reported $1.5 trillion valuation, which he attributes partly to Elon Musk's newly floated plan for a constellation of up to a million satellites to power AI data centers in space.

Kook argues that if Starlink (a fixed-broadband-like product) can generate $10 billion in revenue, AST's mobile-focused direct-to-cell opportunity should be larger, analogizing current Starlink to 'Facebook on desktop' and AST SpaceMobile to 'Facebook Mobile,' where mobile ultimately drove Facebook's growth.

Kook cites Zero Hedge noting the space sector was the dominant return driver in 2025 and that the same trend is repeating so far in 2026; he credits the Trump administration's redirection toward the Department of War/'space superiority' messaging and Goldman Sachs launching a 'GS Moon Index' as evidence institutional attention to the space theme is accelerating, while cautioning that heavy bank attention to a theme can sometimes mark a late stage (as with prior 'BRIC Index'-style trends).

Kook cites a share from 'Elena Niera' (MIT) that Japan is calling for a national LEO infrastructure development project to reduce dependence on overseas constellations, similar to Europe's IRIS² initiative; Kook questions whether Japan can build its own constellation alone or whether it would make more economic sense to adopt a SatCo-like joint structure given its small population and the natural monopoly economics of satellite constellations.

Kook predicts Europe's SatCo (the AST/Vodafone European JV) will likely be up and operating well before Europe's IRIS² sovereign constellation, if IRIS² is ever operational at all.

Kook mentions a German ITU filing, flagged by researcher 'Katsy,' for an 'Arctic shell' related to SATCOM, noting Arctic shells are important for military use and suggesting this signals the intended (government/defense) user base for such a system.

Kook argues AST is likely to fare better than Starlink in India because AST has built goodwill by partnering with and elevating ISRO's global reputation as a launch partner, and because Indian Prime Minister Modi has publicly tweeted about the company, whereas Starlink has not invested in local partnerships or content in India.

Kook speculates that large existing Indian telecom incumbents (e.g., Reliance) may lobby against Starlink because it would disintermediate their existing business, making it harder for Starlink to get regulatory approval, whereas he expects AST to have a smoother experience given its collaborative approach.

Kook says a series of FCC filings show AST's partners (e.g., AT&T lawyers, not CEO-level executives) are actively finalizing documents, which he interprets as a sign that a full US market grant from the FCC could come 'any day' — though he cautions that in FCC timelines, 'any day' could still mean February or March.

Kook credits Jennifer Manor, described as AST's 'queen of spectrum,' for the company's strategic spectrum posturing, arguing AST's satellites are ultimately just the 'mode' for spectrum aggregation — the true scarce asset is the spectrum leases themselves, analogizing to Dish/Charlie Ergen's spectrum being valuable mainly because Starlink, not Dish (Charlie), could monetize it.

Kook references last week's discussion of the 'MilNet' dedicated government system 'magically' disappearing, tying it to a broader trend of government leveraging shared commercial systems like AST SpaceMobile rather than building fully dedicated ones.

Kook cites Deutsche Bank (highlighted via 'SPAC Bobby') estimating a realistic TAM of 1.75 billion users globally for AST SpaceMobile, with Deutsche Bank suggesting it might make sense for AST to pivot away from the primary broadband opportunity or price it higher given very strong demand and limited capacity to serve everything.

By contrast, Kook notes William Blair's report forecasts only $685 million of AST revenue in 2030, calling it a lowball estimate with 'room to upgrade' relative to Deutsche Bank's more bullish TAM view.

Kook recounts that rehashed news about Starlink and Apple (via a tweet from Mario Nawfal) plus unusual Friday trading action (stock ripping in the first 30 minutes, 'bid without offer') made it feel like something material was about to be announced, but the move faded and the stock gave back gains later that day.

Kook closes with a reference to an article on the NRO's declassified Jumpseat spy satellite program, noting these Cold War-era programs (referenced in the book 'Keyhole') are historically underappreciated but were directly important to ending the Cold War, drawing a parallel to today's rapidly evolving electronic-warfare and space-based national security landscape in which he believes AST is well positioned to compete against the largest US defense primes.

Anpanman frames the filing as a watershed moment because the most visible and successful space company has now formally, not just rhetorically, entered the AI-data-centers-in-space market, which had previously been championed mainly by early-stage startups like StarCloud.

On the eve of the BlueWalker 3 launch, Musk announced Starlink direct-to-cell and effectively claimed SpaceX had already created the technology, when in Anpanman's view it had not; Starlink's initial offering was an imperfect, minimally-viable product but still drew major investor interest into the sector and silenced some naysayers.

StarCloud's CEO had been publicly championing data centers in space and, in Anpanman's telling, faced skepticism ('folks kind of laughing at him'); Musk's entry now validates that thesis and should make it easier for StarCloud and similar startups to raise capital. Anpanman is separately skeptical of StarCloud's specific satellite/solar-array architecture, calling it 'a big target that would get hit by debris.'

Anpanman cites SpaceX's broader vertical integration — potential mergers/links with Tesla and xAI spanning launch, communications satellites, data centers, solar production, robotics, and AI applications (X, xAI) — as context for why Musk is pushing into space data centers now.

Anpanman argues grid infrastructure cannot support new large power sources at a distance, so power generation (solar, natural gas, or nuclear) increasingly has to be built directly next to data centers ('behind the meter') rather than delivered over the existing grid.

Musk's broader track record — reusable rockets (once dismissed as impossible), replicating and improving on OneWeb's LEO fixed-wireless concept into Starlink, and turning Tesla/EVs into a mainstream product after skepticism — is cited as evidence he tends to correctly identify large future markets, even if AST SpaceMobile ultimately built superior direct-to-device technology.

Anpanman's own timeline expectation: even if SpaceX says space AI data centers will happen in a given number of years (e.g. 3), he expects it will actually take roughly twice as long (e.g. 5-6 years) based on Musk's historical pattern of missing deadlines while still eventually delivering.

Citing figures he pulled from ChatGPT and flagging them as uncertain, Anpanman estimates the Earth-observation market (Planet Labs, BlackSky, SatLogic, etc.) at about $5 billion currently, growing to roughly $8 billion by 2033 — sizable but 'not that big.'

He estimates the satellite communications market (AST SpaceMobile's category) at about $108 billion in 2024, expected to grow significantly, with direct-to-device specifically nascent but forecast at roughly a 100% CAGR over the next 5-10 years.

He cites GPS/position-navigation-timing as the largest space application market at about $260 billion in 2023, and government space spending (military and other applications) at about $132 billion.

For the new AI-data-centers-in-space vertical, Anpanman cites differing forecasts of roughly $26 billion to $40 billion in size by 2035 — smaller than communications but still a meaningful new addressable market opening up for space companies.

Anpanman says (with self-flagged uncertainty about the exact figures) that roughly 40% of a terrestrial data center's electricity goes to cooling and about 60% to compute/data transmission; moving the cooling burden to space via radiative heat dissipation would free up much more power for actual compute.

On Earth, data centers force trade-offs between land use, freshwater for cooling, and other human needs (food/water); Anpanman argues there is a practical cap on how many terrestrial data centers can be built, and that alternatives like cold-climate or underwater data centers risk melting polar regions or, at the extreme, 'boiling the oceans.'

Anpanman argues that putting compute on the moon or in sun-synchronous/solar orbit avoids these Earth-bound resource trade-offs entirely.

He views this as a better solution than atmospheric deorbiting, since burning up large numbers of satellites' metals and materials in Earth's atmosphere is not good for humans, and he worries the industry will soon see 'hundreds and thousands' of satellites deorbiting given Starlink's plans for tens of thousands of satellites with roughly 2-3 year useful lives in very low Earth orbit.

Anpanman states his own preference is for a smaller number (a few hundred) of satellites in higher orbit with longer useful lives of roughly 7-10, potentially up to 12, years, which he views as a better environmental and performance approach — an implicit reference to AST SpaceMobile's constellation design versus Starlink's.

Anpanman expects AST SpaceMobile could generate 'probably a few hundred million dollars' of revenue in the coming year (2026) from military applications alone, once the constellation is deployed.

The satellites' ASICs already run an AI algorithm to perform efficient beamforming for communications; Anpanman argues it would not be a large technical leap to swap those chips for TPUs or GPUs to perform AI compute rather than just communications beamforming, though he notes this isn't yet optimized for that purpose.